Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses.     

Tectonic blocks and molecular clocks

Evolutionary timescales have mainly used fossils for calibrating molecular clocks, though fossils only really provide minimum clade age constraints. In their place, phylogenetic trees can be calibrated by precisely dated geological events that have shaped biogeography. However, tectonic episodes are protracted, their role in vicariance is rarely justified, the biogeography of living clades and their antecedents may differ, and the impact of such events is contingent on ecology. Biogeographic calibrations are no panacea for the shortcomings of fossil calibrations, but their associated uncertainties can be accommodated. We provide examples of how biogeographic calibrations based on geological data can be established for the fragmentation of the Pangaean supercontinent: (i) for the uplift of the Isthmus of Panama, (ii) the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana, and (iii) for the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. Biogeographic and fossil calibrations are complementary, not competing, approaches to constraining molecular clock analyses, providing alternative constraints on the age of clades that are vital to avoiding circularity in investigating the role of biogeographic mechanisms in shaping modern biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

The age of the angiosperms: a molecular timescale without a clock

The age of the angiosperms has long been of interest to botanists and evolutionary biologists. Many early efforts to date the age of the angiosperms and evolutionary divergences within the angiosperm clade using a molecular clock have yielded age estimates that are grossly inconsistent with the fossil record. We investigated the age of angiosperms using Bayesian relaxed clock (BRC) and penalized likelihood (PL) approaches. Both of these methods allow the incorporation of multiple fossil constraints into the optimization procedure. The BRC method allows a range of values for among-lineage rate of substitution, from a nearly clocklike behavior to a condition in which each branch is allowed an optimal substitution rate, and also accounts for variation in molecular evolution across multiple genes. A topology derived from an analysis of genes from all three plant genomes for 71 taxa was used as a backbone. The effects on age estimates of different genes, single-gene versus concatenated datasets, and the inclusion and assumptions of fossils as age constraints were examined. In addition, the influence of prior distributions on estimates of divergence times was also explored. These results indicate that widely divergent age estimates can result from the different methods (198-139 million years ago), different sources of data (275-122 million years ago), and the inclusion of temporal constraints to topologies. Most dates, however, are between 180-140 million years ago, suggesting a Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous origin of flowering plants, predating the oldest unequivocal fossil angiosperms by about 45-5 million years. Nonetheless, these dates are consistent with other recent studies that have used methods that relax the assumption of a strict molecular clock and also agree with the hypothesis that the angiosperms may be somewhat older than the fossil record indicates.     

A mitogenomic timescale for birds detects variable phylogenetic rates of molecular evolution and refutes the standard molecular clock

Current understanding of the diversification of birds is hindered by their incomplete fossil record and uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships and phylogenetic rates of molecular evolution. Here we performed the first comprehensive analysis of mitogenomic data of 48 vertebrates, including 35 birds, to derive a Bayesian timescale for avian evolution and to estimate rates of DNA evolution. Our approach used multiple fossil time constraints scattered throughout the phylogenetic tree and accounts for uncertainties in time constraints, branch lengths, and heterogeneity of rates of DNA evolution. We estimated that the major vertebrate lineages originated in the Permian; the 95% credible intervals of our estimated ages of the origin of archosaurs (258 MYA), the amniote-amphibian split (356 MYA), and the archosaur-lizard divergence (278 MYA) bracket estimates from the fossil record. The origin of modern orders of birds was estimated to have occurred throughout the Cretaceous beginning about 139 MYA, arguing against a cataclysmic extinction of lineages at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. We identified fossils that are useful as time constraints within vertebrates. Our timescale reveals that rates of molecular evolution vary across genes and among taxa through time, thereby refuting the widely used mitogenomic or cytochrome b molecular clock in birds. Moreover, the 5-Myr divergence time assumed between 2 genera of geese (Branta and Anser) to originally calibrate the standard mitochondrial clock rate of 0.01 substitutions per site per lineage per Myr (s/s/l/Myr) in birds was shown to be underestimated by about 9.5 Myr. Phylogenetic rates in birds vary between 0.0009 and 0.012 s/s/l/Myr, indicating that many phylogenetic splits among avian taxa also have been underestimated and need to be revised. We found no support for the hypothesis that the molecular clock in birds "ticks" according to a constant rate of substitution per unit of mass-specific metabolic energy rather than per unit of time, as recently suggested. Our analysis advances knowledge of rates of DNA evolution across birds and other vertebrates and will, therefore, aid comparative biology studies that seek to infer the origin and timing of major adaptive shifts in vertebrates.     

Biogeographic calibrations for the molecular clock

Molecular estimates of evolutionary timescales have an important role in a range of biological studies. Such estimates can be made using methods based on molecular clocks, including models that are able to account for rate variation across lineages. All clock models share a dependence on calibrations, which enable estimates to be given in absolute time units. There are many available methods for incorporating fossil calibrations, but geological and climatic data can also provide useful calibrations for molecular clocks. However, a number of strong assumptions need to be made when using these biogeographic calibrations, leading to wide variation in their reliability and precision. In this review, we describe the nature of biogeographic calibrations and the assumptions that they involve. We present an overview of the different geological and climatic events that can provide informative calibrations, and explain how such temporal information can be incorporated into dating analyses.     

Calibrating the avian molecular clock

Molecular clocks are widely used to date phylogenetic events, yet evidence supporting the rate constancy of molecular clocks through time and across taxonomic lineages is weak. Here, we present 90 candidate avian clock calibrations obtained from fossils and biogeographical events. Cross-validation techniques were used to identify and discard 16 inconsistent calibration points. Molecular evolution occurred in an approximately clock-like manner through time for the remaining 74 calibrations of the mitochondrial gene, cytochrome b . A molecular rate of approximately 2.1% (± 0.1%, 95% confidence interval) was maintained over a 12-million-year interval and across most of 12 taxonomic orders. Minor but significant variance in rates occurred across lineages but was not explained by differences in generation time, body size or latitudinal distribution as previously suggested.     

Testing the molecular clock: molecular and paleontological estimates of divergence times in the Echinoidea (Echinodermata)

The phylogenetic relationships of 46 echinoids, with representatives from 13 of the 14 ordinal-level clades and about 70% of extant families commonly recognized, have been established from 3 genes (3,226 alignable bases) and 119 morphological characters. Morphological and molecular estimates are similar enough to be considered suboptimal estimates of one another, and the combined data provide a tree that, when calibrated against the fossil record, provides paleontological estimates of divergence times and completeness of their fossil record. The order of branching on the cladogram largely agrees with the stratigraphic order of first occurrences and implies that their fossil record is more than 85% complete at family level and at a resolution of 5-Myr time intervals. Molecular estimates of divergence times derived from applying both molecular clock and relaxed molecular clock models are concordant with estimates based on the fossil record in up to 70% of cases, with most concordant results obtained using Sanderson's semiparametric penalized likelihood method and a logarithmic-penalty function. There are 3 regions of the tree where molecular and fossil estimates of divergence time consistently disagree. Comparison with results obtained when molecular divergence dates are estimated from the combined (morphology + gene) tree suggests that errors in phylogenetic reconstruction explain only one of these. In another region the error most likely lies with the paleontological estimates because taxa in this region are demonstrated to have a very poor fossil record. In the third case, morphological and paleontological evidence is much stronger, and the topology for this part of the molecular tree differs from that derived from the combined data. Here the cause of the mismatch is unclear but could be methodological, arising from marked inequality of molecular rates. Overall, the level of agreement reached between these different data and methodological approaches leads us to believe that careful application of likelihood and Bayesian methods to molecular data provides realistic divergence time estimates in the majority of cases (almost 80% in this specific example), thus providing a remarkably well-calibrated phylogeny of a character-rich clade of ubiquitous marine benthic invertebrates.     

The origin of a mega‐diverse genus: dating Begonia (Begoniaceae) using alternative datasets,calibrations and relaxed clock methods

Begonia is a mega‐diverse genus comprising c. 1500 species of herbs, shrubs and epiphytes with a near pantropical distribution. Previous date estimates for the most recent common ancestor of Begonia have placed the evolution of this genus into a broad temporal context, but the issue of an absolute date estimate remains open. In this study, we attempt to estimate absolute DNA divergence dates for Begonia and, in doing so, address some of many the factors that can affect such estimates. The largest source of variance in our estimates was because of uncertainty with the calibration constraints and phylogenetic distance between these constraints and Begonia. Another large source of variance was due to the alternative methods of analysis investigated. Less variance was as a result of the alternative DNA datasets and combinations of calibration constraints assessed. Our date estimates suggest that the most recent common ancestor of Begonia could have diversified from the end of the Cretaceous to the beginning of the Neogene, probably during a period of global cooling from the mid Eocene to early Oligocene. These estimates imply that the near pantropical distribution of extant Begonia was generated by intercontinental dispersal after the ancient inferred break up of the supercontinent, Gondwana. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159 , 363–380.     

Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds

A limiting factor in many molecular dating studies is shortage of reliable calibrations. Current methods for choosing calibrations (e.g. cross-validation) treat them as either correct or incorrect, whereas calibrations probably lie on a continuum from highly accurate to very poor. Bayesian relaxed clock analysis permits inclusion of numerous candidate calibrations as priors: provided most calibrations are reliable, the model appropriate and the data informative, the accuracy of each calibration prior can be evaluated. If a calibration is accurate, then the analysis will support the prior so that the posterior estimate reflects the prior; if a calibration is poor, the posterior will be forced away from the prior. We use this approach to test two fossil dates recently proposed as standard calibrations within vertebrates. The proposed bird-crocodile calibration (approx. 247Myr ago) appears to be accurate, but the proposed bird-lizard calibration (approx. 255Myr ago) is substantially too recent.     

A molecular timeline for the origin of photosynthetic eukaryotes

The appearance of photosynthetic eukaryotes (algae and plants) dramatically altered the Earth's ecosystem, making possible all vertebrate life on land, including humans. Dating algal origin is, however, frustrated by a meager fossil record. We generated a plastid multi-gene phylogeny with Bayesian inference and then used maximum likelihood molecular clock methods to estimate algal divergence times. The plastid tree was used as a surrogate for algal host evolution because of recent phylogenetic evidence supporting the vertical ancestry of the plastid in the red, green, and glaucophyte algae. Nodes in the plastid tree were constrained with six reliable fossil dates and a maximum age of 3,500 MYA based on the earliest known eubacterial fossil. Our analyses support an ancient (late Paleoproterozoic) origin of photosynthetic eukaryotes with the primary endosymbiosis that gave rise to the first alga having occurred after the split of the Plantae (i.e., red, green, and glaucophyte algae plus land plants) from the opisthokonts sometime before 1,558 MYA. The split of the red and green algae is calculated to have occurred about 1,500 MYA, and the putative single red algal secondary endosymbiosis that gave rise to the plastid in the cryptophyte, haptophyte, and stramenopile algae (chromists) occurred about 1,300 MYA. These dates, which are consistent with fossil evidence for putative marine algae (i.e., acritarchs) from the early Mesoproterozoic (1,500 MYA) and with a major eukaryotic diversification in the very late Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic, provide a molecular timeline for understanding algal evolution.     

DNA turnover and the molecular clock

Summary Many detailed studies on the mechanisms by which different components of eukaryotic nuclear genomes have diverged reveal that the majority of sequences are seemingly not passively accumulating base substitutions in a clocklike manner solely determined by laws of diffusion at the population level. It appears that variation in the rates, units, biases, and gradients of several DNA turnover mechanisms are contributing to the course of DNA divergence. Turnover mechanisms have the potential to retard, maintain, or accelerate the rate of DNA differentiation between populations. Furthermore, examples are known of coding and noncoding DNA subject to the simultaneous operation of several turnover mechanisms leading to complex patterns of fine-scale restructuring and divergence, generally uninterpretable using selection and/or neutral drift arguments in isolation. Constancy in the rate of divergence, where observed over defined periods of time, could be a reflection of constancy in the rates and units of turnover. However, a consideration of the generally large disparity between rates of turnover and mutation reveals that DNA clocks, which would be independently driven by turnover in separate genomic components, would tend to be episodic. The utility of any given DNA sequence for measuring time and species relationships, like individual proteins, is proportional to the extent to which all contributing forces to the evolution of the sequence, internal and external, are understood.     

The Ediacaran emergence of bilaterians: congruence between the genetic and the geological fossil records

Unravelling the timing of the metazoan radiation is crucial for elucidating the macroevolutionary processes associated with the Cambrian explosion. Because estimates of metazoan divergence times derived from molecular clocks range from quite shallow (Ediacaran) to very deep (Mesoproterozoic), it has been difficult to ascertain whether there is concordance or quite dramatic discordance between the genetic and geological fossil records. Here, we show using a range of molecular clock methods that the major pulse of metazoan divergence times was during the Ediacaran, which is consistent with a synoptic reading of the Ediacaran macrobiota. These estimates are robust to changes in priors, and are returned with or without the inclusion of a palaeontologically derived maximal calibration point. Therefore, the two historical records of life both suggest that although the cradle of Metazoa lies in the Cryogenian, and despite the explosion of ecology that occurs in the Cambrian, it is the emergence of bilaterian taxa in the Ediacaran that sets the tempo and mode of macroevolution for the remainder of geological time.     

A simple quantitative model of the molecular clock

Summary We present the ideas, and their motivation, at the basis of a simple model of nucleic acid evolution: thestationary Markov process, or Markov clock. After a brief review of its relevant mathematical properties, the Markov clock is applied to nucleotide sequences from mitochondrial and nuclear genes of different species. Particular emphasis is given to the necessity of carrying out a correct statistical analysis, which allows us to check quantitatively the applicability of our model. We find evidence that the Markov clock ticks in many different processes, and that its limitations can be understood in terms of a simple idea that we call the base-drift hypothesis. This hypothesis correlates the deviations from the stationarity of the Markov process to the evolutionary distanced _AB ^(P) of two species A and B, relative to the processP. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for future work.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Molecular and fossil evidence place the origin of cichlid fishes long after Gondwanan rifting

Cichlid fishes are a key model system in the study of adaptive radiation, speciation and evolutionary developmental biology. More than 1600 cichlid species inhabit freshwater and marginal marine environments across several southern landmasses. This distributional pattern, combined with parallels between cichlid phylogeny and sequences of Mesozoic continental rifting, has led to the widely accepted hypothesis that cichlids are an ancient group whose major biogeographic patterns arose from Gondwanan vicariance. Although the Early Cretaceous (ca 135 Ma) divergence of living cichlids demanded by the vicariance model now represents a key calibration for teleost molecular clocks, this putative split pre-dates the oldest cichlid fossils by nearly 90 Myr. Here, we provide independent palaeontological and relaxed-molecular-clock estimates for the time of cichlid origin that collectively reject the antiquity of the group required by the Gondwanan vicariance scenario. The distribution of cichlid fossil horizons, the age of stratigraphically consistent outgroup lineages to cichlids and relaxed-clock analysis of a DNA sequence dataset consisting of 10 nuclear genes all deliver overlapping estimates for crown cichlid origin centred on the Palaeocene (ca 65–57 Ma), substantially post-dating the tectonic fragmentation of Gondwana. Our results provide a revised macroevolutionary time scale for cichlids, imply a role for dispersal in generating the observed geographical distribution of this important model clade and add to a growing debate that questions the dominance of the vicariance paradigm of historical biogeography.