Representation of nonepistatic selection models and analysis of multilocus Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium configurations

Summary The paper develops conditions for the existence and the stability of central equilibria emanating from selection recombination interaction with generalized nonepistatic selection forms operating in multilocus multiallele systems. The selection structure admits a natural representation as simple sums of Kronecker products based on a common set of marginal selection components. A flexible parametrization of the recombination process is introduced leading to a canonical derivation of the transformation equations connecting gamete frequency states over successive generations. Conditions for the existence and stability of multilocus Hardy-Weinberg (H.W.) type equilibria are elaborated for the classical nonepistatic models (multiplicative and additive viability effects across loci) as well as for generalized nonepistatic selection expressions. It is established that the range of recombination distributions maintaining a stable H.W. polymorphic equilibrium is confined to loose linkage in the pure multiplicative case, but is not restricted in the additive model. In the bisexual case we ascertain for the generalized nonepistatic model the stability conditions of a common H.W. polymorphism.This paper was supported in part by NIH Grant GM 10452-14 and NSF Grant MCS 75-23608.     

Central equilibria in multilocus systems. I. Generalized nonepistatic selection regimes

The generalized nonepistatic selection regime encompasses combinations of multiplicative and neutral viability effects distributed across a set of loci. These subsume, in particular, mixtures of the classical modes of multiplicative and additive fitness evaluations for multilocus traits. Exact analytic conditions for existence and stability of a multilocus Hardy-Weinberg (H-W) polymorphic equilibrium configuration are ascertained. It is established that the central H-W polymorphism is stable only if the component loci are "over-dominant" and sufficient recombination is in force. The H-W central equilibrium is never stable for tight linkage whenever some multiplicative selection effects are contributed by at least two of the loci involved. In the case of additive selection expression and individual overdominant loci, the H-W polymorphism is stable independently of the level of recombination. In the context of "natural" recombination schemes, "more recombination" enhances the stability of the H-W polymorphic equilibrium.     

Disequilibrium in Two-Locus Mutation-Selection Balance Models

Equilibrium behavior of two-locus mutation-selection balance models is analyzed using perturbation techniques. The classical result of Haldane for one locus is shown to carry over to two loci, if fitnesses are replaced by marginal fitnesses. If the fitness of the double heterozygote is smaller than would be produced by a multiplicative model, as in additive or quantitative fitness models, the disequilibrium is negative--an excess of gametes with one rare allele. In this case the disequilibrium can be as large as one-half its maximum value possible, if the recombination rate is small, not greater than the strength of selection. If the fitness of the double heterozygote is larger than would be produced by a multiplicative model, the disequilibrium is positive, and is very small relative to its maximum value possible, even if the recombination rate is zero.     

The Genetic Covariance between Characters Maintained by Pleiotropic Mutations

A statistical genetic model of a multivariate phenotype is derived to investigate the covariation of pleiotropic mutations with additive effects under the combined action of phenotypic selection, linkage and the mating system. Equilibrium formulas for large, randomly mating populations demonstrate that, when selection on polygenic variation is much smaller than twice the harmonic mean recombination rate between loci with interacting fitnesses, linkage disequilibrium is negligible and pleiotropy is the main cause of genetic correlations between characters. Under these conditions, approximate expressions for the dynamics of the genetic covariances due to pleiotropic mutations are obtained. Patterns of genetic covariance between characters and their evolution are discussed with reference to data on polygenic mutation, chromosomal organization and morphological integration.     

Dynamics of Genetic Variability in Two-Locus Models of Stabilizing Selection

We study a two locus model, with additive contributions to the phenotype, to explore the dynamics of different phenotypic characteristics under stabilizing selection and recombination. We demonstrate that the interaction of selection and recombination results in constraints on the mode of phenotypic evolution. Let V(g) be the genic variance of the trait and C(L) be the contribution of linkage disequilibrium to the genotypic variance. We demonstrate that, independent of the initial conditions, the dynamics of the system on the plane (V(g), C(L)) are typically characterized by a quick approach to a straight line with slow evolution along this line afterward. We analyze how the mode and the rate of phenotypic evolution depend on the strength of selection relative to recombination, on the form of fitness function, and the difference in allelic effect. We argue that if selection is not extremely weak relative to recombination, linkage disequilibrium generated by stabilizing selection influences the dynamics significantly. We demonstrate that under these conditions, which are plausible in nature and certainly the case in artificial stabilizing selection experiments, the model can have a polymorphic equilibrium with positive linkage disequilibrium that is stable simultaneously with monomorphic equilibria.     

The evolution of sex and recombination in response to abiotic or coevolutionary fluctuations in epistasis

Evolutionary biologists have identified several factors that could explain the widespread phenomena of sex and recombination. One hypothesis is that host-parasite interactions favor sex and recombination because they favor the production of rare genotypes. A problem with many of the early models of this so-called Red Queen hypothesis is that several factors are acting together: directional selection, fluctuating epistasis, and drift. It is thus difficult to identify what exactly is selecting for sex in these models. Is one factor more important than the others or is it the synergistic action of these different factors that really matters? Here we focus on the analysis of a simple model with a single mechanism that might select for sex: fluctuating epistasis. We first analyze the evolution of sex and recombination when the temporal fluctuations are driven by the abiotic environment. We then analyze the evolution of sex and recombination in a two-species coevolutionary model, where directional selection is absent (allele frequencies remain fixed) and temporal variation in epistasis is induced by coevolution with the antagonist species. In both cases we contrast situations with weak and strong selection and derive the evolutionarily stable (ES) recombination rate. The ES recombination rate is most sensitive to the period of the cycles, which in turn depends on the strength of epistasis. In particular, more virulent parasites cause more rapid cycles and consequently increase the ES recombination rate of the host. Although the ES strategy is maximized at an intermediate period, some recombination is favored even when fluctuations are very slow. By contrast, the amplitude of the cycles has no effect on the ES level of sex and recombination, unless sex and recombination are costly, in which case higher-amplitude cycles allow the evolution of higher rates of sex and recombination. In the coevolutionary model, the amount of recombination in the interacting species also has a large effect on the ES, with evolution favoring higher rates of sex and recombination than in the interacting species. In general, the ES recombination rate is less than or equal to the recombination rate that would maximize mean fitness. We also discuss the effect of migration when sex and recombination evolve in a metapopulation. We find that intermediate parasite migration rates maximize the degree of local adaptation of the parasite and lead to a higher ES recombination rate in the host.     

Selection intensity against deleterious mutations in RNA secondary structures and rate of compensatory nucleotide substitutions

A two-locus model of reversible mutations with compensatory fitness interactions is presented; single mutations are assumed to be deleterious but neutral in appropriate combinations. The expectation of the time of compensatory nucleotide substitutions is calculated analytically for the case of tight linkage between sites. It is shown that selection increases the substitution time dramatically when selection intensity Ns > 1, where N is the diploid population size and s the selection coefficient. Computer simulations demonstrate that recombination increases the substitution time, but the effect of recombination is small when selection is weak. The amount of linkage disequilibrium generated in the process of compensatory substitution is also investigated. It is shown that significant linkage disequilibrium is expected to be rare in natural populations. The model is applied to the mRNA secondary structure of the bicoid 3' untranslated region of Drosophila. It is concluded that average selection intensity Ns against single deleterious mutations is not likely to be much larger than 1.     

Linkage Modification with Mixed Random Mating and Selfing: A Numerical Study

Although recombination cannot increase under conditions of random mating or complete selfing in regimes of constant selection, with mixed random mating and selfing, selection for increased recombination can occur. For some fitness regimes there may be selection for reduced recombination with both low and high degrees of selfing but selection for increased recombination with moderate degrees of selfing. With some fitness regimes there is a historical effect: depending on which equilibrium a population starts from, there may be selection for either increased or decreased recombination. In other cases the direction of selection may be determined by the present state of individuals within the population. If recombination is already fairly limited, there may be selection for further reduction. If recombination is already fairly frequent, there may be selection for increased recombination. For certain symmetric viability systems there may be an intermediate value of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 toward which the population will evolve. Although it is not yet possible to classify precisely those fitness matrices that can exhibit selection for increased recombination, it does appear that selection for increased recombination can occur only if at least two of the double homozygotes are less fit than would be expected on the basis of a comparison of the fitnesses of the single and double heterozygotes on an additive scale.     

Maintenance of Genetic Variability under Strong Stabilizing Selection: A Two-Locus Model

We study a two locus model with additive contributions to the phenotype to explore the relationship between stabilizing selection and recombination. We show that if the double heterozygote has the optimum phenotype and the contributions of the loci to the trait are different, then any symmetric stabilizing selection fitness function can maintain genetic variability provided selection is sufficiently strong relative to linkage. We present results of a detailed analysis of the quadratic fitness function which show that selection need not be extremely strong relative to recombination for the polymorphic equilibria to be stable. At these polymorphic equilibria the mean value of the trait, in general, is not equal to the optimum phenotype, there exists a large level of negative linkage disequilibrium which ``hides' additive genetic variance, and different equilibria can be stable simultaneously. We analyze dependence of different characteristics of these equilibria on the location of optimum phenotype, on the difference in allelic effect, and on the strength of selection relative to recombination. Our overall result that stabilizing selection does not necessarily eliminate genetic variability is compatible with some experimental results where the lines subject to strong stabilizing selection did not have significant reductions in genetic variability.     

Sex differences in linkage between autosomal loci

In the case of conventional selection theory with multiplicative gene action between loci and no sex differences except in crossover frequencies, it is shown that the usual conditions for stability hold when the mean of the recombination frequencies for the two sexes is used. For additive gene action between loci, it is shown that, after one generation of random mating, the gene frequencies of male and female origin are the same. This equality implies the nondecreasing property of the mean fitness function. Some attention is also given to neutral loci.     

Perturbation analysis of a two-locus model with directional selection and recombination

A population genetic two-locus model with additive, directional selection and recombination is considered. It is assumed that recombination is weaker than selection; i.e., the recombination parameter r is smaller than the selection coefficients. This assumption is appropriate for describing the effects of two-locus selection at the molecular level. The model is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODES) for the gamete frequencies x = (x ₁, x ₂, x ₃, x ₄), defined on the simplex S ₄. The ODEs are analyzed using first a regular pertubation technique. However, this approach yields satisfactory results only if r is very small relative to the selection coefficients and if the initial values x(0) are in the interior part of S ₄. To cope with this problem, a novel two-scale perturbation method is proposed which rests on the theory of averaging of vectorfields. It is demonstrated that the zeroth-order solution of this two-scale approach approximates the numerical solution of the model well, even if recombination rate is on the order of the selection coefficients.     

Self-fertilization and the evolution of recombination

In this article, we study the effect of self-fertilization on the evolution of a modifier allele that alters the recombination rate between two selected loci. We consider two different life cycles: under gametophytic selfing, a given proportion of fertilizations involves gametes produced by the same haploid individual, while under sporophytic selfing, a proportion of fertilizations involves gametes produced by the same diploid individual. Under both life cycles, we derive approximations for the change in frequency of the recombination modifier when selection is weak relative to recombination, so that the population reaches a state of quasi-linkage equilibrium. We find that gametophytic selfing increases the range of epistasis under which increased recombination is favored; however, this effect is substantial only for high selfing rates. Moreover, gametophytic selfing affects the relative influence of different components of epistasis (additive x additive, additive x dominance, dominance x dominance) on the evolution of the modifier. Sporophytic selfing has much stronger effects: even a small selfing rate greatly increases the parameter range under which recombination is favored, when there is negative dominance x dominance epistasis. This effect is due to the fact that selfing generates a correlation in homozygosity at linked loci, which is reduced by recombination.     

CYCLICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES AS A FACTOR MAINTAINING GENETIC POLYMORPHISM. 2. DIPLOID SELECTION FOR AN ADDITIVE TRAIT

The subject of this paper is polymorphism maintenance due to stabilizing selection with a moving optimum. It was shown that in case of two-locus additive control of the selected trait, global polymorphism is possible only when the geometric mean fitnesses of double homozygotes averaged over the period are lower than that of the single heterozygotes and of the double heterozygote (with a multiplier [1 – r]^p, which depends on recombination rate r and period length p). But local stability of polymorphism cannot be excluded even if geometric mean fitnesses of all double homozygotes are higher than that of all heterozygotes. We proved, that for logarithmically convex fitness functions, cyclical changes of the optimum cannot help in polymorphism maintenance in case of additive control of the selected trait by two equal loci. However, within the same class of fitness functions, nonequal gene action and/or dominance effect for one or both loci may lead to local polymorphism stability with large enough polymorphism attracting domain. The higher the intensity of selection and closer the linkage between selected loci the larger is this domain. Note that even simple cyclical selection could result in two forms of polymorphic limiting behavior: (a) usually expected forced cycle with a period equal to that of environmental changes; and (b) “supercycles,” nondumping auto-oscillations with a period comprising of hundreds of forced oscillation periods.     

Effect of recombination on the accuracy of the likelihood method for detecting positive selection at amino acid sites

Maximum-likelihood methods based on models of codon substitution accounting for heterogeneous selective pressures across sites have proved to be powerful in detecting positive selection in protein-coding DNA sequences. Those methods are phylogeny based and do not account for the effects of recombination. When recombination occurs, such as in population data, no unique tree topology can describe the evolutionary history of the whole sequence. This violation of assumptions raises serious concerns about the likelihood method for detecting positive selection. Here we use computer simulation to evaluate the reliability of the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) for positive selection in the presence of recombination. We examine three tests based on different models of variable selective pressures among sites. Sequences are simulated using a coalescent model with recombination and analyzed using codon-based likelihood models ignoring recombination. We find that the LRT is robust to low levels of recombination (with fewer than three recombination events in the history of a sample of 10 sequences). However, at higher levels of recombination, the type I error rate can be as high as 90%, especially when the null model in the LRT is unrealistic, and the test often mistakes recombination as evidence for positive selection. The test that compares the more realistic models M7 (beta) against M8 (beta and omega) is more robust to recombination, where the null model M7 allows the positive selection pressure to vary between 0 and 1 (and so does not account for positive selection), and the alternative model M8 allows an additional discrete class with omega = d(N)/d(S) that could be estimated to be >1 (and thus accounts for positive selection). Identification of sites under positive selection by the empirical Bayes method appears to be less affected than the LRT by recombination.     

A multilocus analysis of intraspecific competition and stabilizing selection on a quantitative trait

The equilibrium structure of an additive, diallelic multilocus model of a quantitative trait under frequency- and density-dependent selection is derived. The trait is under stabilizing selection and mediates intraspecific competition as induced, for instance, by differential resource utilization. It is assumed that stabilizing selection is weak, but the strength of competition may be arbitrary relative to it. Density dependence is caused by population regulation, which may be of a very general kind. The number and effects of loci are arbitrary, and stabilizing selection is not necessarily symmetric with respect to the range of phenotypic values. All previously studied models of intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources known to the author reduce to a special case of the present model if overall selection is weak. Therefore, in this case our results are applicable as approximations to all these models. Our central result is the (nearly) complete characterization of the equilibrium and stability structure in terms of all parameters. It is derived under the sole assumption that selection is weak enough relative to recombination to ignore linkage disequilibrium. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of competition relative to stabilizing selection are found that ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism and the occurrence of disruptive selection. In this case, explicit formulas for the number of polymorphic loci at equilibrium, the allele frequencies, the genetic variance, and the strength of disruptive selection are obtained. For two loci, the effects of linkage are investigated analytically; for several loci, they are studied numerically.     

Genetic variation maintained in multilocus models of additive quantitative traits under stabilizing selection.

Stabilizing selection for an intermediate optimum is generally considered to deplete genetic variation in quantitative traits. However, conflicting results from various types of models have been obtained. While classical analyses assuming a large number of independent additive loci with individually small effects indicated that no genetic variation is preserved under stabilizing selection, several analyses of two-locus models showed the contrary. We perform a complete analysis of a generalization of Wright's two-locus quadratic-optimum model and investigate numerically the ability of quadratic stabilizing selection to maintain genetic variation in additive quantitative traits controlled by up to five loci. A statistical approach is employed by choosing randomly 4000 parameter sets (allelic effects, recombination rates, and strength of selection) for a given number of loci. For each parameter set we iterate the recursion equations that describe the dynamics of gamete frequencies starting from 20 randomly chosen initial conditions until an equilibrium is reached, record the quantities of interest, and calculate their corresponding mean values. As the number of loci increases from two to five, the fraction of the genome expected to be polymorphic declines surprisingly rapidly, and the loci that are polymorphic increasingly are those with small effects on the trait. As a result, the genetic variance expected to be maintained under stabilizing selection decreases very rapidly with increased number of loci. The equilibrium structure expected under stabilizing selection on an additive trait differs markedly from that expected under selection with no constraints on genotypic fitness values. The expected genetic variance, the expected polymorphic fraction of the genome, as well as other quantities of interest, are only weakly dependent on the selection intensity and the level of recombination.     

Central Equilibria in Multilocus Systems. II. Bisexual Generalized Nonepistatic Selection Models

This paper is a continuation of the paper "Central Equilibria in Multilocus Systems I," concentrating on existence and stability properties accruing to central H-W type equilibria in multilocus bisexual systems acted on by generalized nonepistatic selection forces coupled to recombination events. The stability conditions are discussed and interpreted in three perspectives, and the influence of sexual differences in linkage relationships together with sex-dependent selection is appraised. In this case we deduce that the stability conditions of the H-W polymorphism in the bisexual model coincide exactly with the conditions for the corresponding monoecious model, provided that the recombination distribution imposed is that of the arithmetic mean of the male and female recombination distributions. A second concern has the same recombination distribution for both sexes, but contrasting selection regimes between sexes. It is then established that, with respect to discerning the relevance of the H-W equilibrium, there is an equivalent monoecious selection regime which is an appropriate "weighted combination" of the male and female selection forms. Finally, in the case where the selection and recombination structures are both sex dependent, a hierarchy of comparisons is elaborated, seeking to unravel the nature of selection-recombination interaction for monoecious versus diocecious systems.     

A finite locus effect diffusion model for the evolution of a quantitative trait

A diffusion model is constructed for the joint distribution of absolute locus effect sizes and allele frequencies for loci contributing to an additive quantitative trait under selection in a haploid, panmictic population. The model is designed to approximate a discrete model exactly in the limit as both population size and the number of loci affecting the trait tend to infinity. For the case when all loci have the same absolute effect size, formal multiple-timescale asymptotics are used to predict the long-time response of the population trait mean to selection. For the case where loci can take on either of two distinct effect sizes, not necessarily with equal probability, numerical solutions of the system indicate that response to selection of a quantitative trait is insensitive to the variability of the distribution of effect sizes when mutation is negligible.     

Recombination,selection, and the evolution of tandem gene arrays

Multigene families—immunity genes or sensory receptors, for instance—are often subject to diversifying selection. Allelic diversity may be favored not only through balancing or frequency-dependent selection at individual loci but also by associating different alleles in multicopy gene families. Using a combination of analytical calculations and simulations, we explored a population genetic model of epistatic selection and unequal recombination, where a trade-off exists between the benefit of allelic diversity and the cost of copy abundance. Starting from the neutral case, where we showed that gene copy number is Gamma distributed at equilibrium, we derived also the mean and shape of the limiting distribution under selection. Considering a more general model, which includes variable population size and population substructure, we explored by simulations mean fitness and some summary statistics of the copy number distribution. We determined the relative effects of selection, recombination, and demographic parameters in maintaining allelic diversity and shaping the mean fitness of a population. One way to control the variance of copy number is by lowering the rate of unequal recombination. Indeed, when encoding recombination by a rate modifier locus, we observe exactly this prediction. Finally, we analyzed the empirical copy number distribution of 3 genes in human and estimated recombination and selection parameters of our model.     

Genetic and Statistical Analyses of Strong Selection on Polygenic Traits: What,Me Normal?

We develop a general population genetic framework for analyzing selection on many loci, and apply it to strong truncation and disruptive selection on an additive polygenic trait. We first present statistical methods for analyzing the infinitesimal model, in which offspring breeding values are normally distributed around the mean of the parents, with fixed variance. These show that the usual assumption of a Gaussian distribution of breeding values in the population gives remarkably accurate predictions for the mean and the variance, even when disruptive selection generates substantial deviations from normality. We then set out a general genetic analysis of selection and recombination. The population is represented by multilocus cumulants describing the distribution of haploid genotypes, and selection is described by the relation between mean fitness and these cumulants. We provide exact recursions in terms of generating functions for the effects of selection on non-central moments. The effects of recombination are simply calculated as a weighted sum over all the permutations produced by meiosis. Finally, the new cumulants that describe the next generation are computed from the non-central moments. Although this scheme is applied here in detail only to selection on an additive trait, it is quite general. For arbitrary epistasis and linkage, we describe a consistent infinitesimal limit in which the short-term selection response is dominated by infinitesimal allele frequency changes and linkage disequilibria. Numerical multilocus results show that the standard Gaussian approximation gives accurate predictions for the dynamics of the mean and genetic variance in this limit. Even with intense truncation selection, linkage disequilibria of order three and higher never cause much deviation from normality. Thus, the empirical deviations frequently found between predicted and observed responses to artificial selection are not caused by linkage-disequilibrium-induced departures from normality. Disruptive selection can generate substantial four-way disequilibria, and hence kurtosis; but even then, the Gaussian assumption predicts the variance accurately. In contrast to the apparent simplicity of the infinitesimal limit, data suggest that changes in genetic variance after 10 or more generations of selection are likely to be dominated by allele frequency dynamics that depend on genetic details.