Compound Intervened Poisson Distribution

The nature and characteristics of Intervened Poisson Distribution (IPD) has been well discussed by Shanmugam (1985). In this paper, Compound Intervened Poisson Distribution (CIPD) is introduced and its properties are studied.     

Spatial cluster detection for censored outcome data

While numerous methods have been proposed to test for spatial cluster detection, in particular for discrete outcome data (e.g., disease incidence), few have been available for continuous data that are subject to censoring. This article provides an extension of the spatial scan statistic (Kulldorff, 1997, Communications in Statistics 26, 1481-1496) for censored outcome data and further proposes a simple spatial cluster detection method by utilizing cumulative martingale residuals within the framework of the Cox's proportional hazards models. Simulations have indicated good performance of the proposed methods, with the practical applicability illustrated by an ongoing epidemiology study which investigates the relationship of environmental exposures to asthma, allergic rhinitis/hayfever, and eczema.     

二氧化硫在烤烟密集烤房群周围的空间分布

为实现 “节能减排、省工降耗”,同时为建设环境友好型现代烟草农业提供理论依据,以烤烟密集烤房群为监测对象,利用ecom-J2KN烟气分析仪和大气采样器对烤烟烘烤过程中密集烤房烟囱气体成分和烤房群周围空间环境SO₂浓度变化进行研究.结果表明: 烤烟烘烤过程烟囱烟气中CO₂和SO₂均在38 ℃稳温时最大,氮氧化物在42 ℃稳温时最大;SO₂排放浓度范围为1327.60～2218.40 mg·m^-3;通过添加4.0%的固硫剂,平均SO₂排放可减少49.7%.对烤房群下风向SO₂扩散的测算表明,SO₂地面浓度最大值出现在变黄期;水平方向43～80 m范围内,SO₂质量浓度超出0.5 mg·m^-3,其中50 m处的空气中SO₂浓度值最高,为0.57 mg·m^-3;在距离烤房群50 m的垂直方向上,距离地面0.9～1.8 m高处的SO₂质量浓度均超出0.5 mg·m^-3,其中1.6 m高处的SO₂浓度达到最高,为0.65 mg·m^-3;通过添加固硫剂,可使SO₂质量浓度平均降低0.43 mg·m^-3.密集烤房群下风向水平距离120 m范围内属于大气环境防护距离.     

Generalized Poisson distribution: the property of mixture of Poisson and comparison with negative binomial distribution

We prove that the generalized Poisson distribution GP(theta, eta) (eta > or = 0) is a mixture of Poisson distributions; this is a new property for a distribution which is the topic of the book by Consul (1989). Because we find that the fits to count data of the generalized Poisson and negative binomial distributions are often similar, to understand their differences, we compare the probability mass functions and skewnesses of the generalized Poisson and negative binomial distributions with the first two moments fixed. They have slight differences in many situations, but their zero-inflated distributions, with masses at zero, means and variances fixed, can differ more. These probabilistic comparisons are helpful in selecting a better fitting distribution for modelling count data with long right tails. Through a real example of count data with large zero fraction, we illustrate how the generalized Poisson and negative binomial distributions as well as their zero-inflated distributions can be discriminated.     

The Multiple Poisson Distribution,Its Characteristics and a Variety of Forms

The multiple Poisson distribution, known under different names, such as generalized Poisson, compound Poisson, composed Poisson, stuttering Poisson, Poisson power series, Poisson-stopped sum distribution, etc., plays an important role in discrete distribution theory. Here we want to show its basic characteristics, the variety of its forms and specify the generalizing distributions.     

Further Study on the Statistical Test to Detect Spatial Pattern

In the study of spatial patterns, the statistic I' = (n — 1)s²/x was commonly used. In this paper, we found that x — s² has an approximated normal distribution with zero mean if the x_i's (i = 1 to n) are independent identically distributed Poisson variables. Based on this conclusion, the hypothesis that a point pattern is completely random can be tested directly. And a method for the test of spatial patterns was proposed which can be sued as an alternative to the Chi-square based dispersion index test.     

Spatial structure of litter-dwelling ant distribution in a subtropical dry forest

Understanding the spatial patterns of species distribution is essential to characterize the structure of communities, to optimize species inventories and to evaluate the impact of biotic and abiotic variables. Here we describe the spatial structure of the distribution of leaf litter ant species, and of biotic factors that could explain it, in a subtropical semi-deciduous forest of the Argentinian Chaco, characterized by a dense understorey of shrubs and terrestrial bromeliads. Environmental variables (leaf litter quantity and ground bromeliad density) were measured and ants were collected in 1 m² quadrats distributed along two 200 m transects at intervals of 1.25 m. Overall 87 species were collected. Sixteen positive associations and a single negative association were observed between the 11 most frequent species taken pair-wise. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of leaf litter ants was determined at two different scales. At a small scale (period below 10 m) a periodic spatial structure, likely due to intraspecific competition, produced a succession of peaks of abundance separated by gaps. At a larger scale (period around 50 m), periodically distributed environmental factors induced aggregates of colonies of species responding positively to these factors. A high quantity of leaf litter and, to a lesser extent, a high density of ground bromeliads promoted a high density and a high species richness of ants. Numerically dominant ants being generally positively associated, interspecific competition was apparently weak. All ant species whose abundance was correlated with an environmental factor were not completely spatially structured by it. This suggests that some other factors, such as intraspecific competition, may have counter-effects. Received 14 March 2005; revised 26 April 2005; accepted 10 May 2005.     

Spatial modelling of individual-level parasite counts using the negative binomial distribution

We present a spatial model for the mean and correlation of highly dispersed count data, and apply it to individual-level counts of the nematode Wuchereria bancrofti, a parasite of humans which causes the disease lymphatic filariasis. Our model uses the negative binomial distribution, whose shape parameter is a convenient index of over-dispersion. Spatial association is quantified in terms of a characteristic length, which has an intuitive interpretation as the distance over which correlation decreases by half. Demographic surveillance and mapping enable us to include individual-level covariates such as age and sex. We discuss the distinctive features of our model and interpret the results in terms of the epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis and possible implications for control programmes.     

On A Statistical Test to Detect Spatial Pattern

In the analysis of spatial patterns, the most extensively used index of dispersion is s²/m in which s² and m are respectively the sample variance and sample mean of the count x in each sample unit. For statistical testing, the statistic I' = (n — 1) s²/m has been introduced since it has an approximate X distribution under the null hypothesis that individuals are distributed randomly. The main problem with the use of index I' is that the random distribution and the superdispersed distribution are not distinguished. In this paper, we have tried to induce a new statistical method for the detection of spatial pattern, based on the special characteristic of Poisson distribution that both of the m and s² are the unbiased estimates of the parameter.     

呼伦贝尔草原人为火空间分布格局

人为草原火及其影响因素的空间分布格局与相关关系研究对于草原火发生、草原火管理等研究具有重要的意义.应用Ripley's K函数对呼伦贝尔草原1976-1996年间发生的人为草原火进行了空间统计分析,确定人为草原火空间分布在年内主要发生月份和年际间均呈聚集分布;应用Kernel密度函数对人为草原火及其影响因素居民点、道路和农田的空间分布密度进行了研究,结果表明呼伦贝尔草原人为火分布广泛,热点区域主体在123.05-124.82°E、48.25-50.21°N之间;居民点、农田空间分布密度的热点区域主要分布在东部和中部地区,道路的分布密度较农田和居民点分布更加均匀.人为草原火空间分布密度与居民点、道路和农田的空间分布密度呈显著性正相关,其Pearson相关系数依次为0.448、0.236、0.602 (P＜0.001),火源因素(居民点、道路、农田)的空间分布格局是呼伦贝尔草原人为火空间分布格局的主要影响因素.     

柳厚壁叶蜂幼虫空间格局及抽样技术

应用Taylor的幂法则、Iwao m^*-m回归分析法及6个聚集指标,对柳厚壁叶蜂幼虫空间分布型进行了研究,并进行了影响因素分析.结果表明,该幼虫在柳树的枝条和叶片两个空间阶元都属于聚集分布,分布的基本成分是个体群,其聚集性随密度的增大而增加.在枝条上,聚集的原因是由柳厚壁叶蜂成虫集中产卵的习性与枝条上叶片空间位点共同影响所致;在叶片上,当m＜2.37时,其聚集原因与春季柳树新叶空间位置有关,当m＞2.37时,虫瘿聚集除与春季新叶空间位置有关外,还与柳厚壁叶蜂成虫羽化和在叶片上集中产卵的习性有关.运用Iwao m^*-m回归中的两个参数α和β值,确定了在不同精度下的理论抽样数及序贯抽样数.     

多杀菌素生物合成基因簇启动子探测和转录时序

多杀菌素是对农业虫害防治及粮食仓储安全均具有重大意义的农用抗生素.为了深入揭示刺糖多孢菌合成多杀菌素的调控特点,首先通过建立基于报告基因的启动子探测技术,探测了多杀菌素生物合成基因簇的9个启动子活性.并进一步通过荧光定量PCR,分析了这9个基因和不在基因簇内的负责糖基前体供应和鼠李糖合成的4个基因的转录时序,结果表明多杀菌素生物合成基因簇内的9个基因在菌体生长进入稳定期时有较高的转录,这和发酵液中此时开始大量积累多杀菌素一致;同时还发现,簇外的4个与糖基供应相关的基因和基因簇内基因的转录时序不同,它们在菌体生长对数期有较高的转录活性,这暗示多杀菌素聚酮链的合成速率和参与后修饰的糖基底物供应的最优化匹配有可能是提高生物合成多杀菌素的前提和关键.     

禾谷缢管蚜的空间格局及其抽样技术

以抽穗后的小麦为材料,用各种聚集强度指标对禾谷缢管蚜种群在麦田的分布进行测定．结果表明,在小麦灌浆初期及近收获时该蚜的空间格局呈聚集分布,在小麦灌浆中期呈均匀分布．空间格局变化的原因与麦田有蚜茎率有关．当有蚜茎率大于９３％时,该蚜的空间格局就由聚集分布转向均匀分布．最后提出了该虫的最适理论抽样数和以无蚜茎率确定防治指标     

二化螟种群空间格局的经典分析与地统计学比较研究

为揭示二化螟幼虫空间格局特征并阐明经典格局分析的局限性与地统计分析的优越性,从2个原始样本出发,另构建了一系列格栅样本、随机样本和顺序样本并进行了比较研究。结果表明,经典格局分析不能有效区分频次分布相同但分布型或聚集程度不同的样本,存在受样方大小、格栅初始点位置和样本容量大小影响等许多局限性,其中受格栅初始点位置影响是首次报道;而地统计学半变异函数能有效刻划二化螟种群空间分布格局,表征其聚集强度和空间异质性,且受样方大小、格栅初始点位置和样本容量大小的影响较小,二化螟种群在低密度下呈随机分布;在高密度下呈聚集分布,聚集强度为0．1056,空间依赖范围为193cm,在高密度下二化螟种群空间分布存在几何异向性,行方向上的聚集强度（0．2716)明显高于列方向(0．0867),但行方向上的空间依赖范围(115cm)小于列方向(264cm)。     

长白松自然同龄种群分布格局的研究

以长白松（Ｐｉｎｕｓｓｙｌｖｅｓｔｒｉｆｏｒｍｉｓ）种群为例,通过种群发展历史、种群大小结构研究,发现种群的胸径服从正态分布Ｎ（１６．８７,６．８０２）,确认该种群为自然同龄种群．种群的空间分布格局呈很高的均匀性,趋于随机分布甚至均匀分布,分布格局动态表现出由均匀分布向随机分布变化的趋势．