Drivers leading to higher food prices: biofuels are not the main factor

Since 2007, the overall rise in food prices in the USA was twice that of the overall inflation rate, led by inflation for poultry and dairy products in particular. Prominent studies have indicated that the main drivers associated with the rise in food prices in the past 3 yr are the increased energy costs (and the trickle-down impact on farm input costs) and the devaluation of the US dollar. However, currently, the impact of crude oil as one of the primary drivers in food prices has waned significantly, as crude oil prices have fallen dramatically since late 2008. The data reviewed here debunk the popular myth that food producers, particularly farmers growing corn or soybean for biofuel feedstocks, are making huge profits with high commodity prices. Producers continue to face extraordinary risks in their farming operations, and profit margins have narrowed considerably because of the high input prices driven by high energy costs. One of the primary solutions to the food price inflation is to increase the supply of commodity crops in a responsible way that is both respectful and sustainable regarding economic, social, and environmental aspects. At the center of this solution is implementing and developing new technologies to increase crop yields and nutritional values without increasing the amount of fossil-based inputs used in agriculture. Conventional breeding, molecular breeding, genomics, and biotechnology are pivotal technologies for increasing crop yields to meet these supply needs, combined with the impacts of other new technologies and best management practices in agricultural production.     

Discounting of delayed hypothetical money, alcohol, and food

For drug-dependent individuals, drugs of abuse that are delayed in time are discounted more steeply than money delayed in time in a hypothetical choice task. The reasons for this finding are not clear. This study examined whether steep discounting of drugs relative to money might be related to the function of drugs as primary/consumable reinforcers and money as a conditioned/non-consumable reinforcer. Twenty adults with no self-reported problems with money, alcohol, or food participated. They indicated their preferences for three hypothetical outcome types: delayed versus immediate money, delayed versus immediate food, and delayed versus immediate alcohol. Both the hyperbolic decay model and area under the curve analysis showed that money was discounted less steeply than alcohol or food, but that alcohol and food were discounted similarly. This finding replicates previous results showing that people without drug abuse problems show steep discounting of alcohol. Furthermore, this finding suggests that alcohol may be steeply discounted as part of a general process involving primary/consumable reinforcers, not necessarily because it is a drug.     

Cointegration and nonlinear causality among ethanol‐related prices: evidence from Brazil

The objective of this study was to investigate the causal relationships among crude oil, ethanol and sugar prices in the context of Brazil. In doing so, we consider the application of ARDL bound tests to examine whether these variables comove in the long run. Besides, we employ a recently developed nonlinear symmetric and asymmetric test for noncausality which assists us to explore the short‐run ‘lead–lag’ associations among the price indexes under review. The results of the ARDL bound test indicate that cointegration exists only when the ethanol price is used as the dependent variable. This finding suggests that oil and sugar prices lead the Brazilian ethanol prices in the long run. Moreover, the results of nonlinear causality test also confirm the existence of a short‐term unidirectional causality running from sugar to ethanol market. We also document that the impact of sugar prices on ethanol prices appears to be positive indicating that rising sugar prices will cause a growth in the ethanol prices. Our findings further demonstrate that sugar prices are not affected by the fluctuations in ethanol price. The results carry important implications for policymakers.     

Investigation of a traditional reed economy (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis>) under threat: pulp and paper market,values and Netchain at Wuliangsuhai Lake,Inner Mongolia,China

Common Reed (Phragmites australis) is a wetland plant which is distributed worldwide, has a high biomass production, and provides important ecosystem services. In many developing and emerging countries it is an easily available and cheap raw material for diverse utilization, which may contribute significantly to employment and income generation for the local population. This case study investigates the reed utilization for pulp and paper production at the eutrophic Wuliangsuhai Lake, Inner Mongolia, China. We analysed the fluxes of materials and money along the supply chain (reed harvesting, processing and supply to final users, i.e. paper mills) as well as the division of work and costs at each production layer (network), based on the Netchain theory. The results make evident the importance of the paper industry and reed harvesting for local livelihood. They further reveal that the reed economy at Wuliangsuhai Lake is threatened by rising environmental standards for paper mills, change of market conditions and dependency on only two customers. Increasing revenues by finding new consumers or/and products, come to long-term contracts and improving harvesting efficiency are presented as ways to convert these threats into new opportunities.     

Effects of Using Heterogeneous Prices on the Allocation of Impacts from Electricity Use: A Mixed‐Unit Input‐Output Approach

Economic input‐output life cycle assessment (IO‐LCA) models allow for quick estimation of economy‐wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with goods and services. IO‐LCA models are usually built using economic accounts and differ from most process‐based models in their use of economic transactions, rather than physical flows, as the drivers of supply‐chain GHG emissions. GHG emissions estimates associated with input supply chains are influenced by the price paid by consumers when the relative prices between individual consumers are different. We investigate the significance of the allocation of GHG emissions based on monetary versus physical units by carrying out a case study of the U.S. electricity sector. We create parallel monetary and mixed‐unit IO‐LCA models using the 2007 Benchmark Accounts of the U.S. economy and sector specific prices for different end users of electricity. This approach is well suited for electricity generation because electricity consumption contributes a significant share of emissions for most processes, and the range of prices paid by electricity consumers allows us to explore the effects of price on allocation of emissions. We find that, in general, monetary input‐output models assign fewer emissions per kilowatt to electricity used by industrial sectors than to electricity used by households and service sectors, attributable to the relatively higher prices paid by households and service sectors. This fact introduces a challenging question of what is the best basis for allocating the emissions from electricity generation given the different uses of electricity by consumers and the wide variability of electricity pricing.     

Generation and distribution of productivity gains in beef cattle farming: Who are the winners and losers between 1980 and 2015?

Surplus accounting is a method for evaluating trends in how a firm’s productivity factors (intermediate inputs, capital, land, labour) are performing and how the productivity gains are redistributed between agents in the economy. Here the surplus accounting method was applied on a database of 164 Charolais-area suckler cattle farms running from 1980 to 2015. Over this 36-year period – with differences per sub-period – the cumulative productivity surplus (PS) increased at a low rate of +0.17%/year (i.e. cumulative volume of outputs produced increased slightly more than cumulative volume of inputs used). This timid increase in PS is linked to the constant expansion in labour productivity whereas other factor productivities have shrunk. The observable period-wide macrotrends are that commercial farm businesses struggle to protect their revenues, we also observe a slight fall in input prices, land rent and financing costs, and a huge climb in direct support-policy payments. The bulk of the cumulative economic surplus has been captured downstream – 64% downstream of the cattle value chain as a drop in prices, and 22% downstream of other value chains (chiefly cereals). It emerges that the productivity gains in beef cattle farming mostly benefit the downstream value chain (packers–processors, distributors and consumers), whereas it is mainly government money backing this drop in prices of agricultural output. Here we see the principal of the 1992 ‘MacSharry’ reform at work, with a transfer from the taxpayer through direct support-policy payments through to the consumer via lower prices. The simple fact that farmers’ incomes are stagnating is a clear indication that they are net losers in this distribution of productivity gains, despite the improvement in labour factor productivity.     

“Selling” Value: The Influence of Language on Willingness-to-Accept

In behavioral economics, the “endowment effect” describes the robust finding that prices people are willing to accept (WTA) for a good exceed prices people are willing to pay (WTP) for the same good. The increase in WTA values is often explained by the sellers’ negative hedonic response to losing their item. Recent studies, however, show that subtle cues may change participants’ perspective, influencing their valuations. We hypothesized that implicit connotations of instructional language may be one of those cues. To test this hypothesis we manipulated the wording of instructions in two conditions: in the Sell condition, subjects were endowed with a set of pens and asked to select an amount of money for which they would sell the pens back and in the Take condition, subjects were endowed with the pens and asked to select an amount of money they would take for the pens. Participants in each condition also estimated the market value of the pens. Consistent with our hypothesis, WTA in the Sell condition was higher than in the Take condition, though there were no differences in market values between conditions. These findings show that instructional language does influence participant valuations. Furthermore, we suggest that those being asked to “sell” use their market estimations as the salient reference point in the transaction.     

The emergence of a commercial trade in pangolins from Gabon

Recent seizures of illegally held wildlife indicate a mounting global trade in pangolins involving all eight species. Seizures of illegally traded African pangolins are increasing as wild populations of Asian species decline. We investigated trade in pangolins and law enforcement efforts in Gabon; a country likely to have intact wild populations of three of the four species of African pangolin. We compared village sales and trade chains between 2002‐2003 and 2014. Hunters reported pangolins to be the most frequently requested species in 2014, and the value of pangolins had increased at every point along their trade chain. In Libreville, giant pangolin prices increased 211% and arboreal pangolin prices 73% whilst inflation rose only 4.6% over the same period. We documented a low rate of interception of illegally traded pangolins despite increased law enforcement. Surveys of potential export routes detected exports across forest borders, in conjunction with ivory, but not through public transport routes. We conclude that whilst there is clear potential and likelihood that a wild pangolin export trade is emerging from Gabon, traditional bushmeat trade chains may not be the primary supply route. We recommend adjusting conservation policies and actions to impede further development of illegal trade within and from Gabon .     

Effects of body size,seed density,and soil characteristics on rates of seed harvest by heteromyid rodents

Summary Although it is well established that coexisting heteromyid rodent species forage in different microhabitats, we do not yet know the basis for divergent microhabitat choice. One possibility is that seed harvest rates differ among microhabitats, and each species forages where it can extract seeds most efficiently. Microhabitats vary in several factors that could affect heteromyid foraging efficiency, including seed density, soil organic content and particle size distribution. We have explored the effect of each of these variables on harvest rates of several species feeding from petri dishes containing known densities of millet seeds embedded in soil of known particle size and density. Results indicate that the number of seeds harvested per second increases uniformly with seed density and soil density and decreases with soil particle size. Body size affects these relationships: larger animals have higher harvest rates for a given set of conditions and experience a greater relative change in harvest rate for a give change in conditions. This implies that heteromyids can be expected to exhibit species-specific microhabitat preferences while foraging in nature.     

General equilibrium of an ecosystem

Ecosystems and economies are inextricably linked: ecosystem models and economic models are not linked. Consequently, using either type of model to design policies for preserving ecosystems or improving economic performance omits important information. Improved policies would follow from a model that links the systems and accounts for the mutual feedbacks by recognizing how key ecosystem variables influence key economic variables, and vice versa. Because general equilibrium economic models already are widely used for policy making, the approach used here is to develop a general equilibrium ecosystem model which captures salient biological functions and which can be integrated with extant economic models. In the ecosystem model, each organism is assumed to be a net energy maximizer that must exert energy to capture biomass from other organisms. The exerted energies are the "prices" that are paid to biomass, and each organism takes the prices as signals over which it has no control. The maximization problem yields the organism's demand for and supply of biomass to other organisms as functions of the prices. The demands and supplies for each biomass are aggregated over all organisms in each species which establishes biomass markets wherein biomass prices are determined. A short-run equilibrium is established when all organisms are maximizing and demand equals supply in every biomass market. If a species exhibits positive (negative) net energy in equilibrium, its population increases (decreases) and a new equilibrium follows. The demand and supply forces in the biomass markets drive each species toward zero stored energy and a long-run equilibrium. Population adjustments are not based on typical Lotka-Volterra differential equations in which one entire population adjusts to another entire population thereby masking organism behavior; instead, individual organism behavior is central to population adjustments. Numerical simulations use a marine food web in Alaska to illustrate the model and to show several simultaneous predator/prey relationships, prey switching by the top predator, and energy flows through the web.     

Impact of insect pollinator group and floral display size on outcrossing rate

Despite the strong influence of pollination ecology on the evolution of selfing, we have little information on how distinct groups of insect pollinators influence outcrossing rate. However, differences in behavior between pollinator groups could easily influence how each group affects outcrossing rate. We examined the influence of distinct insect pollinator groups on outcrossing rate in the rocky mountain columbine, Aquilegia coerulea. The impact of population size, plant density, size of floral display, and herkogamy (spatial separation between anthers and stigmas) on outcrossing rate was also considered as these variables were previously found to affect outcrossing rate in some plant species. We quantified correlations between all independent variables and used simple and two-factor regressions to determine direct and indirect impact of each independent variable on outcrossing rate. Outcrossing rate increased significantly with hawkmoth abundance but not with the abundance of any of the other groups of floral visitors, which included bumblebees, solitary bees, syrphid flies, and muscidae. Outcrossing rate was also significantly affected by floral display size and together, hawkmoth abundance and floral display size explained 87% of the variation in outcrossing rate. None of the other independent variables directly affected the outcrossing rate. This is the first report of a significant impact of pollinator type on outcrossing rate. Hawkmoths did not visit fewer flowers per plant relative to other pollinator groups but preferred visiting female-phase flowers first on a plant. Both the behavior of pollinators and floral display size affected outcrossing rate via their impact on the level of geitonogamous (among flower) selfing. Given that geitonogamous selfing is never advantageous, the variation in outcrossing rate and maintenance of mixed mating systems in populations of A. coerulea may not require an adaptive explanation.     

Theoretical predictions for how temperature affects the dynamics of interacting herbivores and plants

Concern about climate change has spurred experimental tests of how warming affects species' abundance and performance. As this body of research grows, interpretation and extrapolation to other species and systems have been limited by a lack of theory. To address the need for theory for how warming affects species interactions, we used consumer-prey models and the metabolic theory of ecology to develop quantitative predictions for how systematic differences between the temperature dependence of heterotrophic and autotrophic population growth lead to temperature-dependent herbivory. We found that herbivore and plant abundances change with temperature in proportion to the ratio of autotrophic to heterotrophic metabolic temperature dependences. This result is consistent across five different formulations of consumer-prey models and over varying resource supply rates. Two models predict that temperature-dependent herbivory causes primary producer abundance to be independent of temperature. This finding contradicts simpler extensions of metabolic theory to abundance that ignore trophic interactions, and is consistent with patterns in terrestrial ecosystems. When applied to experimental data, the model explained 77% and 66% of the variation in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances, respectively. We suggest that metabolic theory provides a foundation for understanding the effects of temperature change on multitrophic ecological communities.     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

Benthic macroinvertebrate community structure in relation to food and environmental variables

The relative contribution of sediment food (e.g. organic matter, carbohydrates, proteins, C, N, polyunsaturated fatty acids) and environmental variables (e.g. oxygen, pH, depth, sediment grain size, conductivity) in explaining the observed variation in benthic macroinvertebrates is investigated. Soft bottom sediments, water and benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled in several water systems across The Netherlands. The variance partitioning method is used to quantify the relative contributions of food and environmental variables in structuring the benthic macroinvertebrate community structure.It is assumed that detritivores show a significant relationship with sediment food variables and carnivores and herbivores do not. The results of the variance partitioning method with data sets containing only detritivores, herbivores or carnivores confirm this assumption. This indicates that the variance partitioning method is a useful tool for analyzing the impact of different groups of variables in complex situations. Approximately 45% of the total variation in the macroinvertebrate community structure could be explained by variables included in the analyses. The variance partitioning method shows that sediment food variables contributed significantly to the total variation in the macroinvertebrate dataset. The relative importance of food depends on the intensity of other environmental factors and is lower on broad spatial scales than on smaller scales.The results of the partitioning depend on the selected variables that are included in the analyses. The method becomes problematic in case variables from different groups of variables (e.g. one food variable and one environmental variable) have a high inflation factor and thus are collinear. The choice of the variable that is left out impacts the variance allocated to the different groups of variables.The variance partitioning method was able to detect the spatial scale dependent contribution of food variables in structuring macroinvertebrate communities. This spatial scale dependency can also be caused by the size, the composition, and the heterogeneity of the dataset. Performing extra analyses in which specific samples are removed from the original dataset can give insight in under- or overestimation of the impact of certain factors and offers the possibility to test the robustness of the obtained results.     

The effect of iron supply on the yield and composition of leaves of tomato plants

Summary This paper describes a factorial experiment which was designed to elucidate the effect of total iron supply and rate of iron supply on the yield of tomato plants. Information was also obtained on the effect of iron supply and leaf age on the concentration of a number of nutrient elements in the leaf tissue.Increasing the total iron supply increases the yield, and the iron concentration in the leaves, while the manganese, phosphorus, sodium, calcium and magnesium decrease in concentration. The young leaves have a lower concentration of iron, manganese, potassium, sodium, calcium and magnesium than the older leaves, while the reverse is true of nitrogen and phosphorus. A slow rate of iron supply decreases the yield and sodium concentration in the leaves but increases the manganese and phosphorus concentrations.Interaction between total iron supply and leaf position affects the manganese, potassium, calcium and magnesium concentrations in the leaves, while the interaction between total-iron level and rate of iron supply affects the phosphorus and calcium concentration in the leaves.     

Assessment of regional non-linear tissue deformation and air volume change of human lungs via image registration

We evaluate the non-linear characteristics of the human lung via image registration-derived local variables based on volumetric multi-detector-row computed tomographic (MDCT) lung image data of six normal human subjects acquired at three inflation levels: 20% of vital capacity (VC), 60% VC and 80% VC. Local variables include Jacobian (ratio of volume change) and maximum shear strain for assessment of lung deformation, and air volume change for assessment of air distribution. First, the variables linearly interpolated between 20% and 80% VC images to reflect deformation from 20% to 60% VC are compared with those of direct registration of 20% and 60% VC images. The result shows that the linearly-interpolated variables agree only qualitatively with those of registration (P<0.05). Then, a quadratic (or linear) interpolation is introduced to link local variables to global air volumes of three images (or 20% and 80% VC images). A sinusoidal breathing waveform is assumed for assessing the time rate of change of these variables. The results show significant differences between two-image and three-image results (P<0.05). The three-image results for the whole lung indicate that the peak of the maximum shear rate occurs at about 37% of the maximum volume difference between 20% and 80% VC, while the peaks for the Jacobian and flow rate occur at 50%. This is in agreement with accepted physiology whereby lung tissues deform more at lower lung volumes due to lower elasticity and greater compliance. Furthermore, the three-image results show that the upper and middle lobes, even in the recumbent, supine posture, reach full expansion earlier than the lower lobes.     

Inside Money,Procyclical Leverage,and Banking Catastrophes

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.     

Effects of food price shocks on child malnutrition: The Mozambican experience 2008/2009

A propitiously timed household survey carried out in Mozambique over the period 2008/2009 permits us to study the relationship between shifts in food prices and child nutrition status in a low income setting. We focus on weight-for-height and weight-for-age in different survey quarters characterized by very different food price inflation rates. Using propensity score matching techniques, we find that these nutrition measures, which are sensitive in the short run, improve significantly in the fourth quarter of the survey, when the inflation rate for basic food products is low, compared to the first semester or three quarters, when food price inflation was generally high. The prevalence of underweight, in particular, falls by about 40 percent. We conclude that the best available evidence points to food penury, driven by the food and fuel price crisis combined with a short agricultural production year, as substantially increasing malnutrition amongst under-five children in Mozambique.