Risk Prediction for Breast,Endometrial, and Ovarian Cancer in White Women Aged 50 y or Older: Derivation and Validation from Population-Based Cohort Studies

Background

Breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers share some hormonal and epidemiologic risk factors. While several models predict absolute risk of breast cancer, there are few models for ovarian cancer in the general population, and none for endometrial cancer.

Methods and Findings

Using data on white, non-Hispanic women aged 50+ y from two large population-based cohorts (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial [PLCO] and the National Institutes of Health–AARP Diet and Health Study [NIH-AARP]), we estimated relative and attributable risks and combined them with age-specific US-population incidence and competing mortality rates. All models included parity. The breast cancer model additionally included estrogen and progestin menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use, other MHT use, age at first live birth, menopausal status, age at menopause, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, benign breast disease/biopsies, alcohol consumption, and body mass index (BMI); the endometrial model included menopausal status, age at menopause, BMI, smoking, oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and an interaction term between BMI and MHT use; the ovarian model included oral contraceptive use, MHT use, and family history or breast or ovarian cancer. In independent validation data (Nurses'' Health Study cohort) the breast and ovarian cancer models were well calibrated; expected to observed cancer ratios were 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96–1.04) for breast cancer and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97–1.19) for ovarian cancer. The number of endometrial cancers was significantly overestimated, expected/observed = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11–1.29). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs; discriminatory power) were 0.58 (95% CI: 0.57–0.59), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.56–0.63), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66–0.70) for the breast, ovarian, and endometrial models, respectively.

Conclusions

These models predict absolute risks for breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers from easily obtainable risk factors and may assist in clinical decision-making. Limitations are the modest discriminatory ability of the breast and ovarian models and that these models may not generalize to women of other races. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Urban-Rural Disparity of Breast Cancer and Socioeconomic Risk Factors in China

Breast cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide. The primary aim of this work is the study of breast cancer disparity among Chinese women in urban vs. rural regions and its associations with socioeconomic factors. Data on breast cancer incidence were obtained from the Chinese cancer registry annual report (2005–2009). The ten socioeconomic factors considered in this study were obtained from the national population 2000 census and the Chinese city/county statistical yearbooks. Student’s T test was used to assess disparities of female breast cancer and socioeconomic factors in urban vs. rural regions. Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares (OLS) models were employed to analyze the relationships between socioeconomic factors and cancer incidence. It was found that the breast cancer incidence was significantly higher in urban than in rural regions. Moreover, in urban regions, breast cancer incidence remained relatively stable, whereas in rural regions it displayed an annual percentage change (APC) of 8.55. Among the various socioeconomic factors considered, breast cancer incidence exhibited higher positive correlations with population density, percentage of non-agriculture population, and second industry output. On the other hand, the incidence was negatively correlated with the percentage of population employed in primary industry. Overall, it was observed that higher socioeconomic status would lead to a higher breast cancer incidence in China. When studying breast cancer etiology, special attention should be paid to environmental pollutants, especially endocrine disruptors produced during industrial activities. Lastly, the present work’s findings strongly recommend giving high priority to the development of a systematic nationwide breast cancer screening program for women in China; with sufficient participation, mammography screening can considerably reduce mortality among women.     

Age and Ethnic Differences in Volumetric Breast Density in New Zealand Women: A Cross-Sectional Study

Breast cancer incidence differs by ethnicity in New Zealand (NZ) with Māori (the indigenous people) women having the highest rates followed by Pakeha (people primarily of British/European descent), Pacific and Asian women, who experience the lowest rates. The reasons for these differences are unclear. Breast density, an important risk factor for breast cancer, has not previously been studied here. We used an automated system, Volpara™, to measure breast density volume from the medio-lateral oblique view of digital mammograms, by age (≤50 years and >50 years) and ethnicity (Pakeha/Māori/Pacific/Asian) using routine data from the national screening programme: age; x-ray system and mammography details for 3,091 Pakeha, 716 Māori, 170 Pacific and 662 Asian (total n = 4,239) women. Linear regression of the natural logarithm of absolute and percent density values was used, back-transformed and expressed as the ratio of the geometric means. Covariates were age, x-ray system and, for absolute density, the natural log of the volume of non-dense tissue (a proxy for body mass index). Median age for Pakeha women was 55 years; Māori 53 years; and Pacific and Asian women, 52 years. Compared to Pakeha women (reference), Māori had higher absolute volumetric density (1.09; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.03–1.15) which remained following adjustment (1.06; 95% CI 1.01–1.12) and was stronger for older compared to younger Māori women. Asian women had the greatest risk of high percentage breast density (1.35; 95% CI 1.27–1.43) while Pacific women in both the ≤50 and >50 year age groups (0.78; 95% CI 0.66–0.92 and 0.81; 95% CI 0.71–0.93 respectively) had the lowest percentage breast density compared to Pakeha. As well as expected age differences, we found differential patterns of breast density by ethnicity consistent with ethnic differences seen in breast cancer risk. Breast density may be a contributing factor to NZ’s well-known, but poorly explained, inequalities in breast cancer incidence.     

Educational Differences in Postmenopausal Breast Cancer – Quantifying Indirect Effects through Health Behaviors,Body Mass Index and Reproductive Patterns

Studying mechanisms underlying social inequality in postmenopausal breast cancer is important in order to develop prevention strategies. Standard methods for investigating indirect effects, by comparing crude models to adjusted, are often biased. We applied a new method enabling the decomposition of the effect of educational level on breast cancer incidence into indirect effects through reproductive patterns (parity and age at first birth), body mass index and health behavior (alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and hormone therapy use). The study was based on a pooled cohort of 6 studies from the Copenhagen area including 33,562 women (1,733 breast cancer cases) aged 50–70 years at baseline. The crude absolute rate of breast cancer was 399 cases per 100,000 person-years. A high educational level compared to low was associated with 74 (95% CI 22–125) extra breast cancer cases per 100,000 person-years at risk. Of these, 26% (95% CI 14%–69%) could be attributed to alcohol consumption. Similar effects were observed for age at first birth (32%; 95% CI 10%–257%), parity (19%; 95%CI 10%–45%), and hormone therapy use (10%; 95% CI 6%–18%). Educational level modified the effect of physical activity on breast cancer. In conclusion, this analysis suggests that a substantial number of the excess postmenopausal breast cancer events among women with a high educational level compared to a low can be attributed to differences in alcohol consumption, use of hormone therapy, and reproductive patterns. Women of high educational level may be more vulnerable to physical inactivity compared to women of low educational level.     

Cancer incidence rate ratios of Turkish immigrants in Hamburg,Germany: A registry based study

The aim of this study was to estimate cancer incidence rate ratios for Turkish migrants in Hamburg, Germany. We used a name-based approach and identified 1346 cases with Turkish names (as a proxy of Turkish origin) among 140,249 cases of cancer registered in the cancer registry Hamburg during 1990–2005. To estimate the size of the denominator population, we applied the name-based approach to the population of Hamburg as well. The cancer incidence of specific cancer sites was compared between Turkish and non-Turkish cases using incidence rate ratios (IRR), stratified by gender and birth cohort. Our main findings are that cancer of the respiratory organs is diagnosed less frequent among Turkish men in older birth cohorts but with higher frequency in the younger birth cohorts. Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are slightly higher in most male Turkish men birth cohorts, and even considerably higher for the birth cohort 1961 to <1971 (IRR = 1.8). Among women, incidence rates for Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women for cancer of the respiratory system, skin cancer and cancer of genital organs. Also, breast cancer incidence rates of Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women, especially in older birth cohorts. Incidence rate ratios of neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are low in the 1931 to <1941 cohort (IRR = 0.71) but increase in younger birth cohorts. In conclusion, we found differences in cancer risks between cases with and without Turkish names for specific cancer sites. These results are consistent with the findings of studies from other countries.     

Risks of Breast and Endometrial Cancer in Women with Diabetes: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective

We investigated the overall and age-specific risks of developing breast and endometrial cancer among women with diabetes in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

Women with diabetes (n = 319310) and age-matched controls (n = 319308), selected from ambulatory care claims and beneficiary registry in 2000, respectively were linked to the in-patient claims (2000–2008) to identify admissions due to breast (ICD-9-CM: 174) and endometrial (ICD-9-CM: 182) cancer. The person-year approach with Poisson assumption was used to estimate the incidence density rate. The age-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of above malignancies in relation to diabetes with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression.

Results

The overall incidence density rate of breast and endometrial cancer was estimated at 1.21 and 0.21 per 10,000 patient-years, respectively, for diabetes. The corresponding figures for controls were lower at 1.00 and 0.14 per 10,000 patient-years. Compared with the controls, the covariate adjusted HR for breast and endometrial cancer was 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34–1.50) and 1.71 (95% CI 1.48–1.97), respectively in women with diabetes. Elderly (> = 65 years) diabetes had the highest HR (1.61) of breast cancer, while the highest HR (1.85) of endometrial cancer was observed in diabetes aged < = 50 years.

Conclusions

Diabetes may significantly increase the risks of breast and endometrial cancer in all age stratifications. Health education for strict adherence of cancer screening program in women with diabetes is essential.     

Trends in breast and cervical cancer in India under National Cancer Registry Programme: An Age-Period-Cohort analysis

BackgroundTrend analysis in cancer quantifies the incidence rate and explains the trend and pattern. Breast and cervical cancers are the two most common cancers among Indian women which contributed 39.4 % to the total cancer in India for the year 2020. This study aimed to report the time trends in cancer incidence of breast and cervical cancer using Age–Period–Cohort (APC) model from five Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) in India for the period of 1985–2014.MethodAge-Period-Cohort model was fitted to five PBCRs of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Barshi rural for breast and cervical cancer for 25−74 age-groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) was calculated. Rate Ratio (RR) of cohort effects were estimated with a constraint of period slope to be zero (p = 0) since cohort has a stronger association with incidence than period.ResultA significant increase was noted in breast cancer in all PBCRs (EAPC, Range: Delhi, 1.2 % to Bangalore, 2.7 %) while significant decrease in cervical cancer (EAPC, Range: Bangalore -2.5 % to Chennai, -4.6 %) from all the PBCRs including Barshi rural during the period. RR estimates for breast cancer showed increasing trend whereas cervical cancer showed decreasing trend in successive birth cohorts across all five PBCRs.ConclusionIn both breast and cervical cancers, a significant age, cohort and period effect was noted in Bangalore, Chennai and Delhi. Despite period effect, the cohort effect was predominant and it may be attributed to the generational changes in risk factors among cancer breast and cervix.     

Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening

BackgroundThe role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates.ResultsThe observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56–0.94) and 0.98 (0.77–1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78–1.01) and 0.90 (0.80–1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62–0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75–1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70–0.97) if extra cancers were excluded.ConclusionsIn breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.     

Breast Cancer Attributable Costs in Germany: A Top-Down Approach Based on Sickness Funds Data

Background

Breast cancer is the leading cause of death from cancer among women in Germany. Despite its clinical and economic relevance, no attributable costs for breast cancer have been reported for Germany so far. The objective of this study is to estimate age-specific breast cancer attributable health expenditures for Germany.

Methods

Sickness fund data from 1999 representing about 26 million insured (i.e. 32% of the total German population) have been analysed using generalized additive models and the error propagation law. Costs have been inflated to 2010.

Results

Breast cancer attributable costs decreased with age. Among breast cancer patients aged 30–45 years, about 90% of all health expenditures were due to breast cancer, whereas in breast cancer patients aged 80–90 years, about 50% were due to breast cancer. Breast cancer attributable costs amounted to about €9,000 annually for patients below 55 years of age and declined to about €3,000 in 90-year-old breast cancer patients.

Conclusion

This analysis provides estimates of attributable breast cancer costs in Germany. Compared with the international literature, the estimates were plausible but had a tendency to underestimate breast cancer attributable costs.     

Adverse Drug Reactions in Hospitalised Children in Germany Are Decreasing: Results of a Nine Year Cohort-Based Comparison

Background

In recent years, efforts have been made to improve paediatric drug therapy. The aim of this research was to investigate any changes regarding the frequency and nature of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in hospitalized children in one paediatric general medical ward over a 9-year period.

Methodology

Two prospective observational cohort studies were conducted at a large University hospital in Germany in 1999 and 2008, respectively. Children aged 0–18 years admitted to the study ward during the study periods were included. ADRs were identified using intensive chart review. Uni- and multivariable regression has been used for data analysis.

Results

A total of 520 patients (574 admissions) were included [1999: n = 144 (167); 2008: n = 376 (407)]. Patients received a total of 2053 drugs [median 3, interquartile range (IQR) 2–5]. 19% of patients did not receive any medication. Median length of stay was 4 days (IQR 3–7; range 1–190 days) with a significantly longer length of stay in 1999. The overall ADR incidence was 13.1% (95% CI, 9.8–16.3) varying significantly between the two study cohorts [1999: 21.9%, 95% CI, 14.7–29.0; 2008: 9.2%, 95% CI, 5.9–12.5 (p<0.001)]. Antibacterials and corticosteroids for systemic use caused most of the ADRs in both cohorts (1999; 2008). Exposure to systemic antibacterials decreased from 62.9% to 43.5% whereas exposure to analgesics and anti-inflammatory drugs increased from 17.4% to 45.2%, respectively. The use of high risk drugs decreased from 75% to 62.2%. In 1999, 45.7% and in 2008 96.2% of ADRs were identified by treating clinicians (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Between 1999 and 2008, the incidence of ADRs decreased significantly. Improved treatment strategies and an increased awareness of ADRs by physicians are most likely to be the cause for this positive development. Nevertheless further research on ADRs particularly in primary care and the establishment of prospective pharmacovigilance systems are still needed.     

A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Background

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.

Methods and Principal Findings

We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated “excess” HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002–2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15–49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2–3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15–24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5–6.5). In the period 2005–2008, incidence among men and women aged 15–49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6–2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002–2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15–24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence.     

Influence of primary care physician availability and socioeconomic deprivation on breast cancer from 1988 to 2008: a spatio-temporal analysis

Background

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death among women in the United States. It is unclear how county-level primary care physician (PCP) availability and socioeconomic deprivation affect the spatial and temporal variation of breast cancer incidence and mortality.

Methods

We used the 1988–2008 public-use county-based data from nine Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programs to analyze the temporal and spatial disparity of PCP availability and socioeconomic deprivation on early-stage incidence, advanced-stage incidence and breast cancer mortality. The spatio-temporal analysis was implemented by a novel structural additive modeling approach.

Results

Greater PCP availability was significantly associated with higher early-stage incidence, advanced-stage incidence and mortality during the entire study period while socioeconomic deprivation was significantly negatively associated with early-stage incidence, advanced-stage incidence, and mortality up to 1992. However, the observed influence of PCP availability and socioeconomic deprivation varied by county.

Conclusions

We showed important associations of PCP availability and socioeconomic deprivation with the three breast cancer indicators. However, the effect of these associations varied over time and across counties. The association of PCP availability and socioeconomic deprivation was stronger in selected counties.     

Differences in Oral Sexual Behaviors by Gender,Age, and Race Explain Observed Differences in Prevalence of Oral Human Papillomavirus Infection

Purpose

This study explores whether gender, age and race differences in oral sexual behavior account for the demographic distribution of oral human papillomavirus infection (HPV) and HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (HPV-OSCC)

Methods

This analysis included 2,116 men and 2,140 women from NHANES (2009–10) who answered a behavioral questionnaire and provided an oral-rinse sample for HPV detection. Weighted prevalence estimates and prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated for sexual behaviors and oral HPV infection by gender, age-cohort (20–29, 30–44, 45–59, 60–69), and race, and contrasted with incidence rate ratios (IRR) of OSCC from SEER 2009. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors of oral sexual behavior and oral HPV16 infection.

Results

Differences in oral sexual behavior were observed by gender, age-cohort and race. Most men (85.4%) and women (83.2%) had ever performed oral sex, but men had more lifetime oral and vaginal sexual partners and higher oral HPV16 prevalence than women (each p<0.001). 60–69 year olds (yo) were less likely than 45–59 or 30–44 (yo) to have performed oral sex (72.7%, 84.8%, and 90.3%, p<0.001), although oral HPV16 prevalence was similar. Prevalence ratios (PR) of ever oral sex in men vs. women (PR = 1.03), and 45–59 vs. 30–44 year-old men (PR = 0.96) were modest relative to ratios for oral HPV16 infection (PRs = 1.3–6.8) and OSCC (IRR = 4.7–8.1). In multivariate analysis, gender, age-cohort, and race were significant predictors of oral sexual behavior. Oral sexual behavior was the primary predictor of oral HPV16 infection; once this behavior was adjusted for, age-cohort and race were no longer associated with oral HPV16.

Conclusion

There are differences in oral sexual behaviors when considering gender, age-cohort and race which explain observed epidemiologic differences in oral HPV16 infection across these groups.     

Breast Cancer Biology and Ethnic Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality in New Zealand: A Cohort Study

Introduction

Indigenous Māori women have a 60% higher breast cancer mortality rate compared with European women in New Zealand. We investigated differences in cancer biological characteristics and their impact on breast cancer mortality disparity between Māori and NZ European women.

Materials and Methods

Data on 2849 women with primary invasive breast cancers diagnosed between 1999 and 2012 were extracted from the Waikato Breast Cancer Register. Differences in distribution of cancer biological characteristics between Māori and NZ European women were explored adjusting for age and socioeconomic deprivation in logistic regression models. Impacts of socioeconomic deprivation, stage and cancer biological characteristics on breast cancer mortality disparity between Māori and NZ European women were explored in Cox regression models.

Results

Compared with NZ European women (n=2304), Māori women (n=429) had significantly higher rates of advanced and higher grade cancers. Māori women also had non-significantly higher rates of ER/PR negative and HER-2 positive breast cancers. Higher odds of advanced stage and higher grade remained significant for Māori after adjusting for age and deprivation. Māori women had almost a 100% higher age and deprivation adjusted breast cancer mortality hazard compared with NZ European women (HR=1.98, 1.55-2.54). Advanced stage and lower proportion of screen detected cancer in Māori explained a greater portion of the excess breast cancer mortality (HR reduction from 1.98 to 1.38), while the additional contribution through biological differences were minimal (HR reduction from 1.38 to 1.35).

Conclusions

More advanced cancer stage at diagnosis has the greatest impact while differences in biological characteristics appear to be a minor contributor for inequities in breast cancer mortality between Māori and NZ European women. Strategies aimed at reducing breast cancer mortality in Māori should focus on earlier diagnosis, which will likely have a greater impact on reducing breast cancer mortality inequity between Māori and NZ European women.     

γ-Glutamyltransferase and Breast Cancer Risk Beyond Alcohol Consumption and Other Life Style Factors – A Pooled Cohort Analysis

Objective

Elevated γ-Glutamyltransferase serum levels are associated with increased risk of overall cancer incidence and several site-specific malignancies. In the present prospective study we report on the associations of serum γ-Glutamyltransferase with the risk of breast cancer in a pooled population-based cohort considering established life style risk factors.

Methods

Two cohorts were included in the present study, i.e. the Vorarlberg (n = 97,268) and the Malmoe cohort (n = 9,790). Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate HRs for risk of breast cancer.

Results

In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, body mass index and smoking status, women with γ-Glutamyltransferase levels in the top quartile were at significantly higher risk for breast cancer compared to women in the lowest quartile (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.35; p = 0.005). In the subgroup analysis of the Malmoe cohort, γ-Glutamyltransferase remained an independent risk factor for breast cancer when additionally considering alcohol intake. A statistically significant increase in risk was seen in women with γ-Glutamyltransferase-levels in the top versus lowest quartile in a multivariate model adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking status, physical activity, parity, oral contraceptive-use and alcohol consumption (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.11–1.69, p = 0.006).

Conclusion

Our findings identified γ-Glutamyltransferase as an independent risk factor for breast cancer beyond the consumption of alcohol and other life style risk factors.     

Serum Lipids and Breast Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Purpose

Epidemiologic studies exploring causal associations between serum lipids and breast cancer risk have reported contradictory results. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to evaluate these associations.

Methods

Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE through April 2015. We included prospective cohort studies that reported relative risk (RR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of specific lipid components (i.e., total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides [TG]) with breast cancer risk. Either a fixed- or a random-effects model was used to calculate pooled RRs.

Results

Fifteen prospective cohort studies involving 1,189,635 participants and 23,369 breast cancer cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled RRs of breast cancer for the highest versus lowest categories were 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86–1.07) for TC, 0.92 (95% CI: 0.73–1.16) for HDL-C, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.77–1.06) for LDL-C, and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.86–1.00) for TG. Notably, for HDL-C, a significant reduction of breast cancer risk was observed among postmenopausal women (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64–0.93) but not among premenopausal women. Similar trends of the associations were observed in the dose-response analysis.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that serum levels of TG but not TC and LDL-C may be inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Serum HDL-C may also protect against breast carcinogenesis among postmenopausal women.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Fracture Risk and Adjuvant Therapies in Young Breast Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study

Background

Breast cancer survivors have an increased risk of bone fracture. But the risk among young patients with adjuvant therapies remains unknown. This population-based study is aimed to assess the incidence and risk of fracture among young (age of 20 to 39 years) breast cancer patients who received adjuvant therapies.

Methods

From January 2001 to December 2007, 5,146 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients were enrolled from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan. Patients were observed for a maximum of 6 years to determine the incidence of newly onset fracture. Kaplan Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk of fracture in young breast cancer patients who received adjuvant treatments.

Results

Of the total 5,146 young (age of 20 to 39 years) breast cancer patients, the Cox multivariate proportional hazards analysis showed that AIs, radiotherapy, and monoclonal antibodies were significantly associated with a high risk of fracture. Moreover, patients who received AIs for more than 180 days had a high hazard ratio (HR) of 1.77 (95% CI = 0.68–4.57), and patients who received more than four radiotherapy visits had a high HR of 2.54 (95% CI = 1.07–6.06). Under the site-specific analysis, young breast cancer patients who received AIs had the highest risk of hip fracture (HR = 8.520, 95% CI = 1.711–42.432, p < 0.04), whereas patients who received radiotherapy had the highest risk of vertebral fracture (HR = 5.512, 95% CI = 1.847–16.451, p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Young breast cancer patients who are receiving AIs, radiotherapy or monoclonal antibody need to be more careful for preventing fracture events. Breast cancer treatment plans are suggested to incorporate fracture prevention interventions.     

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease Receiving Hemodialysis: A Population-Based Study

Background

Little is known on the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in ESRD patients. This study compared the incidence of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD) between cohorts with and without influenza vaccination.

Methods

We used the insurance claims data from 1998 to 2009 in Taiwan to determine the incidence of these events within one year after influenza vaccination in the vaccine (N = 831) and the non-vaccine (N = 3187) cohorts. The vaccine cohort to the non-vaccine cohort incidence rate ratio and hazard ratio (HR) of morbidities and mortality were measured.

Results

The age-specific analysis showed that the elderly in the vaccine cohort had lower hospitalization rate (100.8 vs. 133.9 per 100 person-years), contributing to an overall HR of 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.90). The vaccine cohort also had an adjusted HR of 0.85 [95% CI 0.75–0.96] for heart disease. The corresponding incidence of pneumonia and influenza was 22.4 versus 17.2 per 100 person-years, but with an adjusted HR of 0.80 (95% CI 0.64–1.02). The vaccine cohort had lowered risks than the non-vaccine cohort for intensive care unit (ICU) admission (adjusted HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.12–0.33) and mortality (adjusted HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41–0.60). The time-dependent Cox model revealed an overall adjusted HR for mortality of 0.30 (95% CI 0.26–0.35) after counting vaccination for multi-years.

Conclusions

ESRD patients with HD receiving the influenza vaccination could have reduced risks of pneumonia/influenza and other morbidities, ICU stay, hospitalization and death, particularly for the elderly.