Survival and mortality of green-winged teal banded on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta,Alaska

Despite the importance of green-winged teal (Anas crecca) as a harvested species in North America, recent information on variation in vital rates among regions is lacking. We used band recovery data and hierarchical autoregressive models to examine temporal and age-sex-class variation in survival, hunting mortality, and nonhunting mortality probabilities of green-winged teal banded at Kgun Lake on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA, from 1997–2019. We used data from 10,554 adult and juvenile green-winged teal of known sex and age banded and released at Kgun Lake, and 1,245 hunter recoveries. Estimates of annual survival probability for adult females and males ranged from 0.44 (95% CI = 0.29–0.54) to 0.49 (95% CI = 0.37–0.68) and 0.56 (95% CI = 0.50–0.61) to 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50–0.64), respectively, during our study period. Estimates of annual survival probability for juvenile females and males ranged from 0.36 (95% CI = 0.18–0.56) to 0.46 (95% CI = 0.31–0.71) and 0.51 (95% CI = 0.38–0.61) to 0.56 (95% CI = 0.44–0.71), respectively. Hunting mortality probability was greatest for juvenile males and least for adult females. Hunting mortality probability of juvenile males increased from 0.09 (95% CI = 0.05–0.13) in 1997 to 0.14 (95% CI = 0.11–0.18) in 2015. Nonhunting mortality probability was greater and more variable than hunting mortality probability for all age-sex classes, indicating nonhunting mortality contributed most to total mortality of green-winged teal banded at Kgun Lake during our study. Additionally, survival probability of female green-winged teal banded at Kgun Lake is less than published estimates for green-winged teal banded in the boreal forest of Alaska. We recommend continuing consistent banding operations for green-winged teal on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and other important breeding areas to further understand factors influencing nonhunting mortality and how they may vary seasonally and geographically.     

Reductions in Cardiovascular,Cerebrovascular, and Respiratory Mortality following the National Irish Smoking Ban: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Background

Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality.

Methods

A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence.

Results

Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54–0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46–0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35–64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32–0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305–4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking.

Conclusions

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes.     

The International Heart Transplant Survival Algorithm (IHTSA): A New Model to Improve Organ Sharing and Survival

Background

Heart transplantation is life saving for patients with end-stage heart disease. However, a number of factors influence how well recipients and donor organs tolerate this procedure. The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a flexible risk model for prediction of survival after heart transplantation using the largest transplant registry in the world.

Methods and Findings

We developed a flexible, non-linear artificial neural networks model (IHTSA) and classification and regression tree to comprehensively evaluate the impact of recipient-donor variables on survival over time. We analyzed 56,625 heart-transplanted adult patients, corresponding to 294,719 patient-years. We compared the discrimination power with three existing scoring models, donor risk index (DRI), risk-stratification score (RSS) and index for mortality prediction after cardiac transplantation (IMPACT). The accuracy of the model was excellent (C-index 0.600 [95% CI: 0.595–0.604]) with predicted versus actual 1-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 83.7% versus 82.6%, 71.4% – 70.8%, and 54.8% – 54.3% in the derivation cohort; 83.7% versus 82.8%, 71.5% – 71.1%, and 54.9% – 53.8% in the internal validation cohort; and 84.5% versus 84.4%, 72.9% – 75.6%, and 57.5% – 57.5% in the external validation cohort. The IHTSA model showed superior or similar discrimination in all of the cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve to predict one-year mortality was for the IHTSA: 0.650 (95% CI: 0.640–0.655), DRI 0.56 (95% CI: 0.56–0.57), RSS 0.61 (95% CI: 0.60–0.61), and IMPACT 0.61 (0.61–0.62), respectively. The decision-tree showed that recipients matched to a donor younger than 38 years had additional expected median survival time of 2.8 years. Furthermore, the number of suitable donors could be increased by up to 22%.

Conclusions

We show that the IHTSA model can be used to predict both short-term and long-term mortality with high accuracy globally. The model also estimates the expected benefit to the individual patient.     

Lesser Scaup Nest Success and Duckling Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

Abstract: Over the last 20 years scaup numbers have declined, and these declines have been greatest in the northern boreal forests of Canada and Alaska where most lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) nest. We studied nest success and duckling survival of lesser scaup over 3 field seasons, 2001–2003, on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska, USA. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests on our study area across all 3 years was 0.943 (n = 177 nests, 95% CI: 0.930–0.954), corresponding to a nest success of only 12.3%, considerably lower than published estimates of an average nest success as high as 57% for lesser scaup in the northern boreal forest. With Mayfield logistic regression, we investigated effects on nest survival of year, clutch initiation date, and nesting habitat type (large wetlands >10 ha, small wetlands <10 ha, and wooded creeks). Neither year nor clutch initiation date influenced nest survival; however, the odds of nest success on large wetlands was 49% lower than on wooded creeks (odds ratio = 0.512, 95% CI = 0.286, 0.918). Based on the model that used only habitat type for estimation, DSR on large wetlands was 0.931 (corresponding nest success = 7.6%), DSR on small wetlands was 0.941 (nest success = 11.1%), and DSR on wooded creeks was 0.963 (nest success = 26.2%). To estimate duckling survival, we monitored 10 broods (n = 75 ducklings) over 3 field seasons by radiotagging hens at nest hatch. Most duckling mortality (94%) occurred in the first 10 days after hatch. Average duckling survival during 1–10 days was 0.321 (95% CI: 0.122–0.772), during 11–20 days was 0.996 (95% CI: 0.891–1.040), and during 21–30 days was 0.923 (95% CI: 0.769–1.041). Three of 10 hens moved all or part of their broods overland between nesting and brood-rearing wetlands for distances of 0.3–1.6 km. Our estimates of lesser scaup nest success and duckling survival on the Yukon Flats were among the lowest ever reported for ducks nesting at northern latitudes, even though the study site was in pristine boreal forest. Estimating and comparing scaup demographic rates from different geographic areas can contribute to improved conservation. Given the scarcity of information on scaup nesting in the boreal forest, basic nesting parameters are important to those trying to model scaup population dynamics.     

Variation in Breeding Season Survival of Female Harlequin Ducks

ABSTRACT Quantifying sources of variation in demographic rates can provide insight into processes underlying population dynamics and subsequently direct wildlife conservation. In the context of avian life history, understanding patterns of variation in survival rates of breeding females is particularly relevant because this cohort often has a disproportionately large effect on population dynamics. We estimated survival probability for 144 adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) that we marked with radiotransmitters and tracked at 4 breeding areas in western North America. Model selection results indicated both regional and temporal variation in survival rates, with most mortality attributed to predation. Cumulative survival probability (±SE) during the 100-day study period was lower at 2 sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada (AB1 and AB2: 0.75 ± 0.11) than in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada (BC: 0.88 ± 0.08) or the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA (OR: 0.89 ± 0.08). Survival also was lower during incubation than nest-initiation or brood-rearing stages at all 4 study areas. In comparison to other annual cycle stages and locations, harlequin duck mortality rates were highest on the breeding grounds, suggesting that management actions designed to reduce mortality during breeding would achieve meaningful population-level benefits.     

Improved Survival in Patients with Viral Hepatitis-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Recommended Abdominal Ultrasound Surveillance in Ontario: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

The optimal schedule for ultrasonographic surveillance of patients with viral hepatitis for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear owing to a lack of reliable studies. We examined the timing of ultrasonography in patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC and its impact on survival and mortality risk while determining predictors of receiving surveillance before HCC diagnosis. A population-based retrospective cohort analysis of patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC in Ontario between 2000 and 2010 was performed using data from the Ontario Cancer Registry linked health administrative data. HCC surveillance for 2 years preceding diagnosis was assigned as: i) ≥2 abdominal ultrasound screens annually; ii) 1 screen annually; iii) inconsistent screening; and iv) no screening. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and parametric models to correct for lead-time bias. Associations between HCC surveillance and the risk of mortality after diagnosis were examined using proportional-hazards regression adjusting for confounding factors. Overall, 1,483 patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC were identified during the study period; 20.2% received ≥1 ultrasound screen annually (routine surveillance) for the 2 years preceding diagnosis. The 5-year survival of those receiving routine surveillance was 31.93% (95% CI: 25.77–38.24%) and 31.84% (95% CI: 25.69–38.14%) when corrected for lead-time bias (HCC sojourn time 70 days and 140 days, respectively). This is contrasted with 20.67% (95% CI: 16.86–24.74%) 5-year survival in those who did not undergo screening. In the fully adjusted model, compared to unscreened patients, routine surveillance was associated with a lower mortality risk and a hazard ratio of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64–0.91) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.68–0.97), corrected for the respective lead-time bias. Our findings suggest that routine ultrasonography in patients with viral hepatitis is associated with improved survival and reduced mortality risk in a population-based setting. The data emphasizes the importance of surveillance for timely intervention in HCC-diagnosed patients.     

Factors Affecting Golden-Cheeked Warbler Nest Survival in Urban and Rural Landscapes

ABSTRACT We evaluated hypotheses concerning temporal, landscape, and habitat effects on nest survival of golden-cheeked warblers (Dendroica chrysoparia) in an urban and a rural landscape during the breeding seasons of 2005 and 2006 in central Texas, USA. We found support for temporal effects of year and cubic effect of date and included them in candidate models that evaluated habitat and landscape effects. Nest survival was lower in 2006 than in 2005 and decreased nonlinearly as the breeding season progressed. We found support for edge effects with decreased nest survival nearer edges and in areas with increased open edge density (wooded habitat abutting open habitat) or decreased trail density. However, confidence intervals for the model-averaged odds ratios overlapped 1.0 for all edge variables. Overall daily survival rate was 0.964 (95% CI = 0.949-0.975), resulting in a 25-day period survival of 0.398 (95% CI = 0.269-0.524). Period survival in Austin's urban landscape (0.399, 95% CI = 0.270-0.526) was similar to survival in Fort Hood's rural landscape (0.396, 95% CI = 0.261-0.528). Both landscapes likely support self-sustaining populations based on reasonable assumptions for adult survival and number of nesting attempts. We suggest that some large urban preserves can provide breeding habitat of comparable quality to rural locations and recommend protecting large parcels (>100 ha) of breeding habitat with limited fragmentation and reducing the amount of wooded edge abutting open habitat to ensure nest survival regardless of their landscape context.     

Survival and cause-specific mortality rates of female sika deer in eastern Hokkaido, Japan

Survival and cause-specific mortality rates of female sika deer (Cervus nippon) were studied using radio telemetry in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. We captured and radio-collared 18 female deer, and monitored their survival from April 1993 to May 1996. Estimated annual survival rate for adult females was 0.779 (95% confidence interval was 0.609–0.997). The harvest mortality rate of adult females was higher than the natural mortality rate. Experimental female hunting during 1994–1996 contributed to an increase in the mortality rate for females and was useful in the control of the sika deer population.     

Survival,Movements, and Reproduction of Translocated Greater Sage-Grouse in Strawberry Valley,Utah

Abstract Translocations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been attempted in 7 states and one Canadian province with very little success. To recover a small remnant population and test the efficacy of sage-grouse translocations, we captured and transported 137 adult female sage-grouse from 2 source populations to a release site in Strawberry Valley, Utah, USA, during March-April 2003–2005. The resident population of sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley was approximately 150 breeding birds prior to the release. We radiomarked each female and documented survival, movements, reproductive effort, flocking with resident grouse, and lek attendance. We used Program MARK to calculate annual survival of translocated females in the first year after release, which averaged 0.60 (95% CI = 0.515-0.681). Movements of translocated females were within current and historic sage-grouse habitat in Strawberry Valley, and we detected no grouse outside of the study area. Nesting propensity for first (newly translocated) and second (surviving) year females was 39% and 73%, respectively. Observed nest success of all translocated females during the study was 67%. By the end of their first year in Strawberry Valley, 100% of the living translocated sage-grouse were in flocks with resident sage-grouse. The translocated grouse attended the same lek as the birds with which they were grouped. In 2006, the peak male count for the only remaining active lek in Strawberry Valley was almost 4 times (135 M) the 6-year pretranslocation (1998–2003) average peak attendance of 36 males (range 24–50 M). Translocations can be an effective management tool to increase small populations of greater sage-grouse when conducted during the breeding season and before target populations have been extirpated.     

Nest Success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado,USA

Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of concern for which little demographic information exists. To help fill this information gap, we investigated factors affecting nest success in two populations of Gunnison Sage-Grouse. We assessed the relative effects of (1) vegetation characteristics (e.g., shrub height, shrub cover, grass cover, and grass height), (2) temporal factors (e.g., year, timing of incubation initiation, and nest age), (3) precipitation, and (4) age of the nesting female (yearling or adult) on nest success rates. We found 177 nests in the Gunnison Basin population (that contains 85–90% of the species) from 2005–2010 and 20 nests in the San Miguel population (that contains < 10% of the species) from 2007–2010. Temporal factors had the greatest impact on nest success compared to vegetation characteristics, precipitation, and female age. Nest success varied considerably among years ranging from 4.0%-60.2% in Gunnison Basin and from 12.9%- 51.9% in San Miguel. Nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season had higher nest success (at least one egg hatches). Daily nest survival rates decreased during the course of incubation. None of the vegetation characteristics we examined were strongly related to nest success.     

Long-Term Survival in HIV Positive Patients with up to 15 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

Life expectancy has increased for newly diagnosed HIV patients since the inception of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), but there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term survival in HIV-positive patients. We examined long-term survival in HIV-positive patients receiving cART in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD), to describe changes in mortality compared to the general population and to develop longer-term survival models.

Methods

Data were examined from 2,675 HIV-positive participants in AHOD who started cART. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by age, sex and calendar year across prognostic characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics national data as reference. SMRs were examined by years of duration of cART by CD4 and similarly by viral load. Survival was analysed using Cox-proportional hazards and parametric survival models.

Results

The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0–4.0). SMRs by CD4 count were 8.6 (95% CI: 7.2–10.2) for CD4<350 cells/µl; 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5–2.9) for CD4 = 350–499 cells/µl; and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1–2.0) for CD4≥500 cells/µl. SMRs for patients with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL were much higher than for patients with higher CD4 counts across all durations of cART. SMRs for patients with viral loads greater than 400 copies/ml were much higher across all durations of cART. Multivariate models demonstrated improved survival associated with increased recent CD4, reduced recent viral load, younger patients, absence of HBVsAg-positive ever, year of HIV diagnosis and incidence of ADI. Parametric models showed a fairly constant mortality risk by year of cART up to 15 years of treatment.

Conclusion

Observed mortality remained fairly constant by duration of cART and was modelled accurately by accepted prognostic factors. These rates did not vary much by duration of treatment. Changes in mortality with age were similar to those in the Australian general population.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality after Long-Term Sickness Absence for Psychiatric Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The aim was to examine if long-term psychiatric sickness absence was associated with all-cause and diagnosis-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and suicide) mortality for the period 1990–2007. An additional aim was to examine these associations for psychiatric sickness absence in 1990 and 2000, with follow-up on mortality during 1991–1997 and 2001–2007, separately.

Methods

Employees within municipalities and county councils, 244,990 individuals in 1990 and 764,137 individuals in 2000, were followed up to 2007 through register linkages. Analyses were conducted with flexible parametric survival models comparing sickness absentees due to psychiatric diagnoses (>90 days) with those not receiving sick leave benefit.

Results

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes; CVD; cancer (smoking and non-smoking related); and suicide during the period 1990–2007. After full adjustment for socio-demographic covariates and previous inpatient care due to somatic and psychiatric diagnoses, these associations remained significant for all-cause mortality (Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)): HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.3–1.8; CVD: HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.0–1.9, and suicide: HR 3.84, 95% CI 2.4–6.1. For both cohorts 1990 and 2000 estimates point in the same direction. For the time-period 2000–2007, we found increased risks of mortality in the fully adjusted model due to all causes: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2–1.7; CVD: HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.2–2.7; overall cancer: HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.0–1.7; and suicide: HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3–3.7.

Conclusion

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders predicted premature mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and suicide.     

Long-Term Survival of Individuals Born Small and Large for Gestational Age

Background

Little is known on long-term survival and causes of death among individuals born small or large for gestational age. This study investigates birth weight in relation to survival and causes of death over time.

Methods

A national cohort of 1.7 million live-born singletons in Denmark was followed during 1979–2011, using the Danish Civil Registration System, the Medical Birth Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. Cox proportional hazards were estimated for the impact of small (SGA) and large (LGA) gestation weight and mortality overall, by age group and birth cohort.

Results

Compared to normal weight children, SGA children were associated with increased risk of dying over time. Though most of the deaths occurred during the first year of life, the cumulative mortality risk was increased until 30 years of age. The hazard ratios [HR] for dying among SGA children ages <2 years were: 3.47 (95% CI, 3.30–3.64) and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.60–1.87) in 30 years and older. HR for dying among SGA adults (20–29 years) were: 1.20 (95% CI, 0.99–1.46) in years 1979–1982 and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.04–2.51) in years 1989–1994. The SGA born had increased risk of dying from infection, heart disease, respiratory disease, digestive disease, congenital malformation, perinatal conditions, and accidents, suicide, and homicide. Individuals born LGA were associated with decreased mortality risk, but with increased risk of dying from malignant neoplasm.

Conclusions

Survival has improved independently of birth weight the past 30 years. However, children born SGA remain at significantly increased risk of dying up till they turn 30 years of age. Individuals born LGA have lower mortality risk but only in the first two years of life.     

Survival and cause-specific mortality of male wild turkeys across the southeastern United States

Estimating survival and cause-specific mortality of male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) is important for understanding population dynamics and implementing appropriate harvest management. To better understand age-specific estimates of annual survival and harvest rates, we captured and marked male wild turkeys with leg bands (n = 311) or bands and transmitters (n = 549) in Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA, during 2014–2022. We fitted time to event models to data from radio-marked birds to estimate cause-specific mortality and annual survival. We used band recovery models incorporating both band recovery and telemetry data to further investigate harvest rates and survival. Annual survival from known-fate models in hunted populations was 0.54 (95% CI = 0.49–0.59) for adults and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.92) for juveniles. Cause-specific mortality analysis produced an annual harvest estimate of 0.29 (95% CI = 0.24–0.33) for adults and 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.03) for juveniles, whereas predation was 0.15 (95% CI = 0.10–0.20) and 0.12 (95% CI = 0.08–0.17), respectively. Annual survival for adult males in a non-hunted population was 0.83 (95% CI = 0.72–0.97). Survival rate was negatively correlated with harvest rate, indicating harvest was an additive mortality source. Annual survival from band recovery models was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.37–0.44) for adults and 0.88 (95% CI = 0.81– 0.93) for juveniles, whereas annual harvest estimates were 0.24 (95% CI = 0.23–0.25) for adults and 0.04 (95% CI = 0.03–0.05) for juveniles. Both models suggested no differences in annual survival across years or among study areas, which included privately owned and public properties. Harvest was an additive mortality source for male wild turkeys, suggesting that managers interested in increasing annual survival of adult males could consider ways of reducing harvest rates.     

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration,condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus ), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1–17%) than females (range: 3–26%; β_sex = ?0.21, 95% CI: ?0.38 to ?0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population‐wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the “disposable soma” theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.     

Factors Affecting Daily Nest Survival of Burrowing Owls Within Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Colonies

ABSTRACT Identifying environmental parameters that influence probability of nest predation is important for developing and implementing effective management strategies for species of conservation concern. We estimated daily nest survival for a migratory population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in Wyoming, USA. We compared estimates based on 3 common approaches: apparent nesting success, Mayfield estimates, and a model-based logistic-exposure approach. We also examined whether 8 intrinsic and extrinsic factors affected daily nest survival in burrowing owls. Positive biases in apparent nest survival were low (3–6%), probably because prior knowledge of nest locations and colonial behavior among nesting pairs facilitated discovery of most nests early in the nesting cycle. Daily nest survival increased as the breeding season progressed, was negatively correlated with ambient temperature, was positively correlated with nest-burrow tunnel length, and decreased as the nesting cycle progressed. Environmental features were similar between failed and successful nests based on 95% confidence intervals, but the seasonal midpoint was earlier for failed nests (31 May) compared to successful nests (15 Jun). The large annual variation in nest survival (a 15.3% increase between 2003 and 2004) accentuates the importance of multiyear studies when estimating reproductive parameters and when examining the factors that affect those parameters. Failure to locate and monitor nests throughout the breeding season may yield biased estimates of nesting success in burrowing owls (and possibly other species), and some of the variation in nesting success among years and across study sites may be explained by annual and spatial variation in ambient temperature. Any management actions that result in fewer prairie dogs, shorter burrow lengths, or earlier nesting may adversely affect reproductive success of burrowing owls.     

Socioeconomic and Other Demographic Disparities Predicting Survival among Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Background

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, “Unequal Treatment,” which defines disparities as racially based, indicates that disparities in cancer diagnosis and treatment are less clear. While a number of studies have acknowledged cancer disparities, they have limitations of retrospective nature, small sample sizes, inability to control for covariates, and measurement errors.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to examine disparities as predictors of survival among newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients recruited from 3 hospitals in Michigan, USA, while controlling for a number of covariates (health behaviors, medical comorbidities, and treatment modality).

Methods

Longitudinal data were collected from newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients (N = 634). The independent variables were median household income, education, race, age, sex, and marital status. The outcome variables were overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival censored at 5 years. Kaplan-Meier curves and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were performed to examine demographic disparities in relation to survival.

Results

Five-year overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival were 65.4% (407/622), 76.4% (487/622), and 67.0% (427/622), respectively. Lower income (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1–2.0 for overall survival; HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0–1.9 for cancer-specific survival), high school education or less (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.9 for overall survival; HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.9 for cancer-specific survival), and older age in decades (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2–1.7 for overall survival; HR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1–1.4 for cancer-specific survival) decreased both overall and disease-free survival rates. A high school education or less (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0–2.1) and advanced age (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.6) were significant independent predictors of poor cancer-specific survival.

Conclusion

Low income, low education, and advanced age predicted poor survival while controlling for a number of covariates (health behaviors, medical comorbidities, and treatment modality). Recommendations from the Institute of Medicine’s Report to reduce disparities need to be implemented in treating head and neck cancer patients.     

Mortality Trends Observed in Population-Based Surveillance of an Urban Slum Settlement,Kibera, Kenya, 2007–2010

Background

We used population based infectious disease surveillance to characterize mortality rates in residents of an urban slum in Kenya.

Methods

We analyzed biweekly household visit data collected two weeks before death for 749 cases who died during January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2010. We also selected controls matched by age, gender and having a biweekly household visit within two weeks before death of the corresponding case and compared the symptoms reported.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 6.3 per 1,000 person years of observation (PYO) (females: 5.7; males: 6.8). Infant mortality rate was 50.2 per 1000 PYOs, and it was 15.1 per 1,000 PYOs for children <5 years old. Poisson regression indicates a significant decrease over time in overall mortality from (6.0 in 2007 to 4.0 in 2010 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05) in persons ≥5 years old. This decrease was predominant in females (7.8 to 5.7 per 1000 PYOs; p<0.05). Two weeks before death, significantly higher prevalence for cough (OR = 4.7 [95% CI: 3.7–5.9]), fever (OR = 8.1 [95% CI: 6.1–10.7]), and diarrhea (OR = 9.1 [95% CI: 6.4–13.2]) were reported among participants who died (cases) when compared to participants who did not die (controls). Diarrhea followed by fever were independently associated with deaths (OR = 14.4 [95% CI: 7.1–29.2]), and (OR = 11.4 [95% CI: 6.7–19.4]) respectively.

Conclusions

Despite accessible health care, mortality rates are high among people living in this urban slum; infectious disease syndromes appear to be linked to a substantial proportion of deaths. Rapid urbanization poses an increasing challenge in national efforts to improve health outcomes, including reducing childhood mortality rates. Targeting impoverished people in urban slums with effective interventions such as water and sanitation interventions are needed to achieve national objectives for health.     

Treatment with Oral Active Vitamin D Is Associated with Decreased Risk of Peritonitis and Improved Survival in Patients on Peritoneal Dialysis

Peritonitis is a major complication of peritoneal dialysis (PD) being associated with hospitalization, catheter loss, technique failure, and increased mortality. Data on incidence rates and risk factors for peritonitis episodes vary between centers. In seven Austrian PD units clinical and laboratory data on each peritonitis episode were collected from all patients (n = 726) who performed PD between January 2000 and December 2009. The peritonitis incidence rate was 0.32 episodes/patient-year. In a multivariate analysis the risk of peritonitis was decreased by 57% in patients treated with oral active vitamin D (HR 0.43; 95% CI 0.28–0.64). Renal disease classified as “other or unknown” (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.08–2.53) and serum albumin <3500 mg/dl (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.04–2.15) were also associated with an increased risk of peritonitis. Albumin levels <3500 mg/dl (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.13–3.17), age (HR 1.06 per year; 95% CI 1.03–1.09), and cardiomyopathy (HR 3.01; 95% CI 1.62–5.59) were associated with increased mortality, whereas treatment with oral active vitamin D was associated with a significantly lower risk of death (HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.27–0.81). In this retrospective multi-center study we identified several factors being related to increased risk of peritonitis in PD patients. Treatment with oral active vitamin D was identified as being independently associated with decreased risk of peritonitis, and decreased all-cause mortality in PD patients.