Local and regional drivers of the African coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus) in Uganda

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Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.     

Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Aim To compare theoretical approaches towards estimating risks of plant species loss to anthropogenic climate change impacts in a biodiversity hotspot, and to develop a practical method to detect signs of climate change impacts on natural populations. Location The Fynbos biome of South Africa, within the Cape Floristic Kingdom. Methods Bioclimatic modelling was used to identify environmental limits for vegetation at both biome and species scale. For the biome as a whole, and for 330 species of the endemic family Proteaceae, tolerance limits were determined for five temperature and water availability‐related parameters assumed critical for plant survival. Climate scenarios for 2050 generated by the general circulation models HadCM2 and CSM were interpolated for the region. Geographic Information Systems‐based methods were used to map current and future modelled ranges of the biome and 330 selected species. In the biome‐based approach, predictions of biome areal loss were overlayed with species richness data for the family Proteaceae to estimate extinction risk. In the species‐based approach, predictions of range dislocation (no overlap between current range and future projected range) were used as an indicator of extinction risk. A method of identifying local populations imminently threatened by climate change‐induced mortality is also described. Results A loss of Fynbos biome area of between 51% and 65% is projected by 2050 (depending on the climate scenario used), and roughly 10% of the endemic Proteaceae have ranges restricted to the area lost. Species range projections suggest that a third could suffer complete range dislocation by 2050, and only 5% could retain more than two thirds of their range. Projected changes to individual species ranges could be sufficient to detect climate change impacts within ten years. Main conclusions The biome‐level approach appears to underestimate the risk of species diversity loss from climate change impacts in the Fynbos Biome because many narrow range endemics suffer range dislocation throughout the biome, and not only in areas identified as biome contractions. We suggest that targeted vulnerable species could be monitored both for early warning signs of climate change and as empirical tests of predictions.     

Effects of Shade‐Tree Species and Crop Structure on the Winter Arthropod and Bird Communities in a Jamaican Shade Coffee Plantation1

I examined the effects of two farm management variables, shade‐tree species and crop structure, on the winter (dry season) arthropod and bird communities in a Jamaican shade coffee plantation. Birds and canopy arthropods were more abundant in areas of the plantation shaded by the tree Inga vera than by Pseudalbizia berteroana. The abundance of arthropods (potential pests) on the coffee crop, however, was unaffected by shade‐tree species. Canopy arthropods, particularly psyllids (Homoptera), were especially abundant on Inga in late winter, when it was producing new leaves and nectar‐rich flowers. Insectivorous and nectarivorous birds showed the strongest response to Inga; thus the concentration of birds in Inga may be a response to abundant food. Coffee‐tree arthropod abundance was much lower than in the shade trees and was affected little by farm management variables, although arthropods tended to be more abundant in dense (unpruned) than open (recently pruned) areas of the plantation. Perhaps in response, leaf‐gleaning insectivorous birds were more abundant in dense areas. These results underscore that although some shade coffee plantations may provide habitat for arthropod and bird communities, differences in farm management practices can significantly affect their abundances. Furthermore, this study provides evidence suggesting that bird communities in coffee respond to spatial variation in arthropod availability. I conclude that /. vera is a better shade tree than P. berteroana, but a choice in crop structures is less clear due to changing effects of prune management over time.     

Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a review and identification of key research issues

Current knowledge of effects of climate change on biodiversity is briefly reviewed, and results are presented of a survey of biological research groups in the Netherlands, aimed at identifying key research issues in this field. In many areas of the world, biodiversity is being reduced by humankind through changes in land cover and use, pollution, invasions of exotic species and possibly climate change. Assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity is difficult, because changes occur slowly and effects of climate change interact with other stress factors already imposed on the environment. Research issues identified by Dutch scientists can be grouped into: (i) spatial and temporal distributions of taxa; (ii) migration and dispersal potentials of taxa; (iii) genetic diversity and viability of (meta) populations of species; (iv) physiological tolerance of species; (v) disturbance of functional interactions between species; and (vi) ecosystem processes. Additional research should be done on direct effects of greenhouse gases, and on interactions between effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of effects of climate change on biodiversity. An interdisciplinary research programme could possibly focus only on one or few of the identified research issues, and should generate input data for predictive models based on climate change scenarios.     

基于Maxent模型的未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布

胡杨(Populus euphratica)是全世界干旱和半干旱区急需优先保护的林木基因资源,预测未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布将为胡杨种群资源的保护和管理提供科学依据,并为绿洲恢复过程中胡杨的合理种植和配置提供有价值的理论指导。本研究基于胡杨在中国地区的92条有效分布记录和10个环境因子变量,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS软件预测了未来气候变化情景下胡杨在中国的潜在地理分布,综合环境因子变量贡献率及置换重要值、刀切法检验评估制约现代胡杨潜在地理分布的重要因子,采用响应曲线确定环境因子变量的适宜区间,定量确定胡杨未来受威胁的潜在地理分布区域和面积。结果表明：（1）Maxent模型的预测准确度极高,受试者工作曲线面积（AUC值）达0.932,现代胡杨潜在地理分布的总适生区面积为289.94×104km2,主要位于内蒙古中西部地区（额济纳旗和阿拉善地区）、新疆大部分地区、甘肃北部和西北部地区、青海中西部地区和宁夏北部地区;（2）影响胡杨的潜在地理分布的主要环境因子变量为气温因子变量（年均温和最冷月最低温）和降水因子变量（最湿月降水量和最干季降水量）,最湿月降水量是影响胡杨潜在地理分布的关键因素;（3）在未来4种气候变化情景下,胡杨不同等级潜在地理分布区的面积较现代潜在地理分布区面积均有不同程度的缩小,且整体上看胡杨的潜在地理分布区有向高海拔区域迁移的趋势。     

Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human‐driven land‐use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate‐driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold‐dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late.     

Targeted protection and restoration to conserve tropical biodiversity in a warming world

Complex landscapes interact with meteorological processes to generate climatically suitable habitat (refuges) in otherwise hostile environments. Locating these refuges has practical importance in tropical montane regions where a high diversity of climatically specialized species is threatened by climate change. Here, we use a combination of weather data and spatial modeling to quantify thermally buffered environments in a regional tropical rainforest. We do this by constructing a spatial surface of maximum air temperature that takes into account important climate‐mediating processes. We find a strong attenuating effect of elevation, distance from coast and foliage cover on maximum temperature. The core habitat of a disproportionately high number of endemic species (45%) is encompassed within just 25% of the coolest identified rainforest. We demonstrate how this data can be used to (i) identify important areas of cool habitat for protection and (ii) efficiently guide restoration in degraded landscapes to expand extant networks of critical cool habitat.     

Influence of shaded systems on Xylosandrus compactus infestation in Robusta coffee along a rainfall gradient in Uganda

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Resource availability and habitat use by mantled howling monkeys in a Nicaraguan coffee plantation: can agroforests serve as core habitat for a forest mammal?

Although shade coffee plantations are potentially valuable habitats for wildlife conservation, little information exists on the extent to which they provide resident wildlife populations with resources necessary for survival and reproduction. A 14-month study of the ecology of mantled howling monkeys Alouatta palliata living in a Nicaraguan shade coffee plantation was therefore conducted. Trees were surveyed at randomly located enumeration points in the coffee plantation and monitored for phenophase production to characterize resource availability. Day-long focal animal follows were used to characterize the ranging and habitat preferences of the howlers. The study site had a diverse canopy, with over 60 tree species providing shade for coffee cultivation; high tree diversity ensured year-round availability of the howlers' preferred foods. Howlers did not avoid feeding or ranging in areas of shade coffee cultivation. However, when foraging in coffee they favored large shade trees for feeding and were less likely to use areas of shade coffee with small trees and fewer arboreal pathways. Results suggest, in conjunction with controls on hunting and protection of nearby forests, that shade coffee can serve as alternate wildlife habitat and corridors between forest fragments for howling monkeys and possibly other forest mammals. Specific management recommendations to improve the conservation value of shade coffee for primates are made and the potential role of coffee plantations in primate conservation at a regional scale are discussed.     

气候变化对东北濒危动物驼鹿潜在生境的影响

气候变化是造成生物多样性下降和物种灭绝的主要因素之一。研究气候变化对物种生境,尤其是濒危物种生境影响对未来保护物种多样性和保持生态系统功能完整性具有重要意义。以驼鹿乌苏里亚种(Alces alces cameloides)为研究对象,选取了对驼鹿分布可能存在影响的22个环境因子,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型模拟了驼鹿基准气候条件下在我国东北的潜在生境分布,并预测了RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候变化情景下2041—2060年(2050s)、2061—2080年(2070s)驼鹿潜在分布,采用接收工作曲线下面积(AUC)对模型预测能力进行评估。研究结果表明:最大熵模型预测驼鹿潜在生境分布的精度较高(平均AUC值为0.845),22个环境因子中,年均温、最暖季均温、年降水、平均日较差是影响驼鹿生境分布的主要因子。基准气候条件下,驼鹿的潜在生境面积占研究区域总面积的36.4%,潜在生境分布区主要在大、小兴安岭。随着时间的推移,研究区内驼鹿当前潜在生境面积明显减少,而新增潜在生境面积较少,总面积呈现急剧减少的趋势,其中RCP8.5情景减少程度大于RCP4.5情景。至2050s阶段,当前潜在生境面积平均将减少62.3%,新增潜在分布面积平均仅为3.6%,总潜在生境面积最高将减少65.6%,平均将减少58.8%;至2070s阶段,当前潜在生境面积平均将减少75.8%,新增潜在分布面积平均仅为1.9%,总潜在生境面积最高将减少93.1%,平均减少73.9%。空间分布上,驼鹿的潜在生境的几何中心将先向西北移动,然后再向高纬度地区西南方向迁移,至2050s阶段,潜在分布生境的几何中心在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的迁移距离分别为183.5 km和210.8 km;至2070s阶段,相应情景下的迁移距离将缩短至28.7 km和33.8 km。潜在生境分布整体呈现向高海拔、高纬度迁移的趋势。     

Monoterpene emission from coniferous trees in response to elevated CO2 concentration and climate warming

It was hypothesized that high CO₂ availability would increase monoterpene emission to the atmosphere. This hypothesis was based on resource allocation theory which predicts increased production of plant secondary compounds when carbon is in excess of that required for growth. Monoterpene emission rates were measured from needles of (a) Ponderosa pine grown at different CO₂ concentrations and soil nitrogen levels, and (b) Douglas fir grown at different CO₂ concentrations. Ponderosa pine grown at 700 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ exhibited increased photosynthetic rates and needle starch to nitrogen (N) ratios when compared to trees grown at 350 μmol mol^–1 CO₂. Nitrogen availability had no consistent effect on photosynthesis. Douglas fir grown at 550 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ exhibited increased photosynthetic rates as compared to growth at 350 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ in old, but not young needles, and there was no influence on the starch/N ratio. In neither species was there a significant effect of elevated growth CO₂ on needle monoterpene concentration or emission rate. The influence of climate warming and leaf area index (LAI) on monoterpene emission were also investigated. Douglas fir grown at elevated CO₂ plus a 4 °C increase in growth temperature exhibited no change in needle monoterpene concentration, despite a predicted 50% increase in emission rate. At elevated CO₂ concentration the LAI increased in Ponderosa pine, but not Douglas fir. The combination of increased LAI and climate warming are predicted to cause an 80% increase in monoterpene emissions from Ponderosa pine forests and a 50% increase in emissions from Douglas fir forests. This study demonstrates that although growth at elevated CO₂ may not affect the rate of monoterpene emission per unit biomass, the effect of elevated CO₂ on LAI, and the effect of climate warming on monoterpene biosynthesis and volatilization, could increase canopy monoterpene emission rate.     

Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network

Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88–92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in ≥ 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7–8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.     

Climate warming causes photobiont degradation and carbon starvation in a boreal climate sentinel lichen

Premise

The long-term potential for acclimation by lichens to changing climates is poorly known, despite their prominent roles in forested ecosystems. Although often considered “extremophiles,” lichens may not readily acclimate to novel climates well beyond historical norms. In a previous study (Smith et al., 2018), Evernia mesomorpha transplants in a whole-ecosystem climate change experiment showed drastic mass loss after 1 yr of warming and drying; however, the causes of this mass loss were not addressed.

Methods

We examined the causes of this warming-induced mass loss by measuring physiological, functional, and reproductive attributes of lichen transplants.

Results

Severe loss of mass and physiological function occurred above +2°C of experimental warming. Loss of algal symbionts (“bleaching”) and turnover in algal community compositions increased with temperature and were the clearest impacts of experimental warming. Enhanced CO₂ had no significant physiological or symbiont composition effects. The functional loss of algal photobionts led to significant loss of mass and specific thallus mass (STM), which in turn reduced water-holding capacity (WHC). Although algal genotypes remained detectable in thalli exposed to higher stress, within-thallus photobiont communities shifted in composition toward greater diversity.

Conclusions

The strong negative impacts of warming and/or lower humidity on Evernia mesomorpha were driven by a loss of photobiont activity. Analogous to the effects of climate change on corals, the balance of symbiont carbon metabolism in lichens is central to their resilience to changing conditions.     

气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测

气候变化对生物多样性的影响及其适应性直接关系着生物多样性保护的成效,预测未来气候变化条件下受威胁物种适宜生境的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,在区域尺度上预测气候变化条件下的物种适宜分布区,进而通过空间分析模拟不同气候变化情景下其适宜分布区的空间变化和迁移趋势.最大熵(Maxent)物种分布模型预测结果显示: 翅果油树的两个适宜分布区在未来气候变化情景下呈现不同的迁移趋势,吕梁山适生区呈现出纬度方向上的轻微波动,而中条山适生区则呈现出向高海拔地区迁移的趋势.适生区空间格局变化分析表明,翅果油树当前适生区的边界存在明显变化区域,包括新增适生区(零星分布在两个适生区的边缘地带,新增率为9.1%～20.9%)和丧失适生区(集中分布在吕梁山适生区北缘和中条山适生区东南部,丧失率为16.4%～31.2%),且两者对气候变化的响应较为敏感.利用分类统计工具Zonal计算得出,在未来气候变化条件下吕梁山适生区的中心点呈现向南迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为7.451 km;中条山适生区的中心点则呈现出向西北迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为8.284 km.表明山西翅果油树的分布对气候变化的响应较为剧烈.     

High-resolution time series of vessel density in Kenyan mangrove trees reveal a link with climate

Tropical trees are often excluded from dendrochronological investigations because of a lack of distinct growth ring boundaries, causing a gap in paleoclimate reconstructions from tropical regions. The potential use of time series of vessel features (density, diameter, surface area and hydraulic conductivity) combined with spectral analysis as a proxy for environmental conditions in the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata was investigated. Intra-annual differences in the vessel features revealed a trade-off between hydraulic efficiency (large vessels) during the rainy season and hydraulic safety (small, more numerous vessels) during the dry season. In addition to the earlywood-latewood variations, a semiannual signal was discovered in the vessel density and diameters after Fourier transformation. The similarity in the Fourier spectra of the vessel features and the climate data, in particular mean relative humidity and precipitation, provides strong evidence for a climatic driving force for the intra-annual variability of the vessel features. The high-resolution approach used in this study, in combination with spectral analysis, may have great potential for the study of climate variability in tropical regions.     

Simulated climate warming causes asymmetric responses in insect life-history timing potentially disrupting a classic ecological speciation system

Climate change may alter phenology within populations with cascading consequences for community interactions and on-going evolutionary processes. Here, we measured the response to climate warming in two sympatric, recently diverged (~170 years) populations of Rhagoletis pomonella flies specialized on different host fruits (hawthorn and apple) and their parasitoid wasp communities. We tested whether warmer temperatures affect dormancy regulation and its consequences for synchrony across trophic levels and temporal isolation between divergent populations. Under warmer temperatures, both fly populations developed earlier. However, warming significantly increased the proportion of maladaptive pre-winter development in apple, but not hawthorn, flies. Parasitoid phenology was less affected, potentially generating ecological asynchrony. Observed shifts in fly phenology under warming may decrease temporal isolation, potentially limiting on-going divergence. Our findings of complex sensitivity of life-history timing to changing temperatures predict that coming decades may see multifaceted ecological and evolutionary changes in temporal specialist communities.