Participatory Development and Analysis of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map of the Establishment of a Bio-Based Economy in the Humber Region

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a widely used participatory modelling methodology in which stakeholders collaboratively develop a ‘cognitive map’ (a weighted, directed graph), representing the perceived causal structure of their system. This can be directly transformed by a workshop facilitator into simple mathematical models to be interrogated by participants by the end of the session. Such simple models provide thinking tools which can be used for discussion and exploration of complex issues, as well as sense checking the implications of suggested causal links. They increase stakeholder motivation and understanding of whole systems approaches, but cannot be separated from an intersubjective participatory context. Standard FCM methodologies make simplifying assumptions, which may strongly influence results, presenting particular challenges and opportunities. We report on a participatory process, involving local companies and organisations, focussing on the development of a bio-based economy in the Humber region. The initial cognitive map generated consisted of factors considered key for the development of the regional bio-based economy and their directional, weighted, causal interconnections. A verification and scenario generation procedure, to check the structure of the map and suggest modifications, was carried out with a second session. Participants agreed on updates to the original map and described two alternate potential causal structures. In a novel analysis all map structures were tested using two standard methodologies usually used independently: linear and sigmoidal FCMs, demonstrating some significantly different results alongside some broad similarities. We suggest a development of FCM methodology involving a sensitivity analysis with different mappings and discuss the use of this technique in the context of our case study. Using the results and analysis of our process, we discuss the limitations and benefits of the FCM methodology in this case and in general. We conclude by proposing an extended FCM methodology, including multiple functional mappings within one participant-constructed graph.     

Process Control as Ecosystem Management: Using the History of Sewage Treatment Plants to Analyze Ecosystem Management Practices

Industrial ecosystems are fruitful sites for examining ecosystem management. Sewage treatment plants, breweries, biotechnology reactors, and ethanol production plants are all ecosystems—complex biophysical systems in which communities of bacteria, yeast, fungi, and other organisms are maintained to extract services or resources. The industrial analog to ecosystem management is “process control”, where the industrial operator is the ecosystem manager. Process control is the management of a production process through the careful measurement and adjustment of its physical and chemical conditions. By analyzing the history of process control in activated sludge sewage treatment plants, I show the importance of craft knowledge in ecosystem management. Sewage treatment plant workers, through their experience in operating the plants, developed means of evaluating process conditions based on sight and smell rather than laboratory analysis. These craft techniques developed and persisted in spite of concerted efforts on the part of sanitary scientists to institute “scientific” control of the process based on laboratory analysis and models of microbial kinetics, suggesting that craft knowledge of ecosystem function can contribute to successful management. The craft knowledge of sewage plant workers is a kind of adaptive management, in which workers constantly adjust ecosystem parameters and observe the results. This approach is contrasted to “command and control” approaches to treatment plant automation, which have met with uneven success.     

Using an Ecosystem Modeling Approach to Explore Possible Ecosystem Impacts of Fishing in the Beibu Gulf,Northern South China Sea

Using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, a trophic structure model of the Beibu Gulf was constructed to explore the energy flows and provide a snapshot of the ecosystem operations. Input data were mainly from the trawl survey data collected from October 1998 to September 1999 and related literatures. The impacts of various fishing pressure on the biomass were examined by simulation at different fishing mortality rates. The model consists of 20 functional groups (boxes), each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covers the major trophic flows in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. It was found that the food web of the Beibu Gulf was dominated by the primary producers path, and phytoplankton was the primary producer mostly used as a food source. The fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.02, and the marine mammals occupied the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the ecosystem network was mapped into a linear food chain, and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 11.2%. The Finn cycling index was 9.73%. The path length was 1.821. The omnivory index was 0.197. The ecosystem had some degree of instability due to exploitation and other human activities, according to Odum’s theory of ecosystem development. A 10-year simulation was performed for each fishery scenario. The fishing mortality rate was found to have a strong impact on the biomass. By keeping the fishing mortality rate at the current level for all fishing sectors, scenario 1 had a drastic decrease in the large fish groups. The biomass of the small and medium pelagic fish would increase to some extent. The biomass of the small and low trophic level species, jellyfish, prawns and benthic crustaceans would be stable. The total biomass of the fishery resources would have a 10% decrease from the current biomass after 10 years. In contrast, the reduced fishing mortality rate induced the recovery of biomass (scenarios 2–4). In scenario 2, the biomass of the large demersal fish and the large pelagic fish would increase to over 16 times and 10 times, respectively, of their current level. In scenario 4, the biomass of the large pelagic fish would increase to over 3 times of its current level. The total biomass of the fish groups, especially the high trophic level groups, would become significantly higher after 10 years, which illustrates the contribution on biomass recovery by relaxing the fishing pressure. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Author contributions: Xiaoping Jia designed research; Zuozhi Chen and Yongsong Qiu performed research; Zuozhi Chen, Yongsong Qiu, and Shannan Xu analyzed data; and Zuozhi Chen and Shannan Xu wrote the article.     

Ecosystem Impacts of a Range Expanding Forest Defoliator at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone

Insect outbreaks in northern-boreal forests are expected to intensify owing to climate warming, but our understanding of direct and cascading impacts of insect outbreaks on forest ecosystem functioning is deficient. The duration and severity of outbreaks by geometrid moths in northern Fennoscandian mountain birch forests have been shown to be accentuated by a recent climate-mediated range expansion, in particular of winter moth (Operophtera brumata). Here, we assess the effect of moth outbreak severity, quantified from satellite-based defoliation maps, on the state of understory vegetation and the abundance of key vertebrate herbivores in mountain birch forest in northern Norway. We show that the most recent moth outbreak caused a regional-scale state change to the understory vegetation, mainly due to a shift in dominance from the allelopathic and unpalatable dwarf-shrub Empetrum nigrum to the productive and palatable grass Avenella flexuosa. Both these central understory plant species responded significantly and nonlinearly to increasing outbreak severity. We further provide evidence that the effects of the outbreak on understory vegetation cascaded to cause strong but opposite impacts on the abundance of the two most common herbivore groups. Rodents increased with defoliation, largely mirroring the increase in A. flexuosa, whereas ungulate abundance instead showed a decreasing trend. Our analyses also suggest that the response of understory vegetation to defoliation may depend on the initial state of the forest, with poorer forest types potentially allowing stronger responses to defoliation.     

Relative Impacts of Elephant and Fire on Large Trees in a Savanna Ecosystem

Elephant and fire are considered to be among the most important agents that can modify the African savanna ecosystem. Although the synergistic relationship between these two key ecological drivers is well documented, it has proved much more difficult to establish the relative effects they have on savanna vegetation structure at a fine-scale over time. In this study, we explore the comparative impacts of fire and elephant on 2,522 individually identified large trees (≥5 m in height) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Data were collected from 21 transects first surveyed in April 2006 and resurveyed in November 2008, to determine the relative importance of past damage by these agents on subsequent impacts and mortality. The occurrence of fire or elephant damage in 2006 affected the amount of tree volume subsequently removed by both these agents; elephant removed more tree volume from previously burned trees and the impact of subsequent fire was higher on previously burned or elephant-utilized trees than on undamaged trees. Mortality was also affected by an interaction between previous and recent damage, as the probability of mortality was highest for trees that suffered from fire or elephant utilization after being pushed over. Subsequent fire damage, but not elephant utilization, on debarked trees also increased the probability of mortality. Mortality was twice (4.6% per annum) that of trees progressing into the ≥5 m height class, suggesting an overall decline in large tree density during the 30-month study period. The responses of large trees were species and landscape-specific in terms of sensitivity to elephant and fire impacts, as well as for levels of mortality and progression into the ≥5 m height class. These results emphasize the need for fine-scale site-specific knowledge for effective landscape level understanding of savanna dynamics.     

From Tree to Map: Using Cognitive Learning Theory to Suggest Alternative Ways to Visualize Macroevolution

Diagrams can be important tools for communicating about evolution. One of the most common visual metaphors that unites a variety of diagrams that describe macroevolution is a tree. Tree-based diagrams are designed to provide a phylogenetic framework for thinking about evolutionary pattern. As is the case with any other metaphor, however, misunderstandings about evolution may either arise from or be perpetuated by how we depict the tree of life. Researchers have tried various approaches to create tree-based diagrams that communicate evolution more accurately. This paper addresses the conceptual limitations of the tree as a visual metaphor for evolution and explores the ways we can use digital tools to extend our visual metaphors for evolution communication. The theory of distributed cognition provides a framework to aid in the analysis of the conceptual affordances and constraints of tree-based diagrams, and develop new ways to visualize evolution. By combining a new map-based visual metaphor for macroevolution with the interactive properties of digital technology, a new method of visualizing evolution called the dynamic evolutionary map is proposed. This paper concludes by comparing the metaphoric affordances and constraints of tree diagrams and the dynamic evolutionary map, and discussing the potential applications of the latter as an educational tool.     

Loss of Key Riparian Plant Species Impacts Stream Ecosystem Functioning

Ecosystems - Leaf litter of alder (Alnus glutinosa) is a key resource to detrital stream food webs. Due to its high quality and palatability, it is readily colonised by microorganisms and consumed...     

Biological Control as a Tool for Ecosystem Management

Biological control is proposed as a tool useful for ecosystem management and compatible with the goals of often competing interests regarding the restoration and maintenance of ecosystems. We summarize the effects of introduced species on ecosystems in three broad groups: insects, vertebrates, and weeds. We then discuss the role of biological control for each of these groups in the context of ecosystem management and realistic outcomes. Of the three groups, we show that biological control of weeds appears to have the best chance for success in ecosystem management. We provide two case studies to support our ideas and finally discuss future needs and trends including fiscal considerations, cost/benefits associated with biological weed control, and potential funding sources.     

Long-term Impacts of Contrasting Management of Large Ungulates in the Arctic Tundra-Forest Ecotone: Ecosystem Structure and Climate Feedback

The arctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE) represents a major transition zone between contrasting ecosystems, which can be strongly affected by climatic and biotic factors. Expected northward expansion and encroachment on arctic tundra in response to climate warming may be counteracted by natural and anthropogenic processes such as defoliating insect outbreaks and grazing/browsing regimes. Such natural and anthropogenic changes in land cover can substantially affect FTE dynamics, alter ground albedo (index of the amount of solar energy reflected back into the atmosphere) and provide important feedbacks into the climate system. We took advantage of a naturally occurring contrast between reindeer grazing regimes in a border region between northern Finland and Norway which was recently defoliated by an outbreak of the geometrid moth. We examined ecosystem-wide contrasts between potentially year-round (but mainly summer) grazed (YRG) regions in Finland and mainly winter grazed (WG) regions in Norway. We also used a remotely sensed vegetation index and albedo to quantify effects on local energy balance and potential climate feedbacks. Although differences in soil characteristics and ground vegetation cover were small, we found dramatic differences in the tree layer component of the ecosystem. Regeneration of mountain birch stands appears to have been severely hampered in the YRG regime, by limiting regeneration from basal shoots and reestablishment of individual trees from saplings. This has led to a more open forest structure and a significant 5% increase in spring albedo in the summer grazed compared to the winter grazed regions. This supports recent suggestions that ecosystem processes in the Arctic can significantly influence the climate system, and that such processes must be taken into account when developing climate change scenarios and adaptation strategies.     

Long-Term Impacts of Forest Ditching on Non-Aquatic Biodiversity: Conservation Perspectives for a Novel Ecosystem

Artificial drainage (ditching) is widely used to increase timber yield in northern forests. When the drainage systems are maintained, their environmental impacts are likely to accumulate over time and along accompanying management, notably after logging when new forest develops on decayed peat. Our study provides the first comprehensive documentation of long-term ditching impacts on terrestrial and arboreal biodiversity by comparing natural alder swamps and second-generation drained forests that have evolved from such swamps in Estonia. We explored species composition of four potentially drainage-sensitive taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes, lichens, and snails), abundance of species of conservation concern, and their relationships with stand structure in two-ha plots representing four management types (ranging from old growth to clearcut). We found that drainage affected plot-scale species richness only weakly but it profoundly changed assemblage composition. Bryophytes and lichens were the taxonomic groups that were most sensitive both to drainage and timber-harvesting; in closed stands they responded to changed microhabitat structure, notably impoverished tree diversity and dead-wood supply. As a result, natural old-growth plots were the most species-rich and hosted several specific species of conservation concern. Because the most influential structural changes are slow, drainage impacts may be long hidden. The results also indicated that even very old drained stands do not provide quality habitats for old-growth species of drier forest types. However, drained forests hosted many threatened species that were less site type specific, including early-successional vascular plants and snails on clearcuts and retention cuts, and bryophytes and lichens of successional and old forests. We conclude that three types of specific science-based management tools are needed to mitigate ditching effects on forest biodiversity: (i) silvicultural techniques to maintain stand structural complexity; (ii) context-dependent spatial analysis and planning of drained landscapes; and (iii) lists of focal species to monitor and guide ditching practices.     

Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems

Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant scale for biodiversity conservation.     

Detecting Marker-Qtl Linkage and Estimating Qtl Gene Effect and Map Location Using a Saturated Genetic Map

A simulation study was carried out on a backcross population in order to determine the effect of marker spacing, gene effect and population size on the power of marker-quantitative trait loci (QTL) linkage experiments and on the standard error of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of QTL gene effect and map location. Power of detecting a QTL was virtually the same for a marker spacing of 10 cM as for an infinite number of markers and was only slightly decreased for marker spacing of 20 or even 50 cM. The advantage of using interval mapping as compared to single-marker analysis was slight. ``Resolving power' of a marker-QTL linkage experiment was defined as the 95% confidence interval for the QTL map location that would be obtained when scoring an infinite number of markers. It was found that reducing marker spacing below the resolving power did not add appreciably to narrowing the confidence interval. Thus, the 95% confidence interval with infinite markers sets the useful marker spacing for estimating QTL map location for a given population size and estimated gene effect.     

Impacts of Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Temperature on a Boreal Forest Ecosystem (CLIMEX Project)

To evaluate the effects of climate change on boreal forest ecosystems, both atmospheric CO₂ (to 560 ppmv) and air temperature (by 3°–5°C above ambient) were increased at a forested headwater catchment in southern Norway. The entire catchment (860 m²) is enclosed within a transparent greenhouse, and the upper 20% of the catchment area is partitioned such that it receives no climate treatment and serves as an untreated control. Both the control and treatment areas inside the greenhouse receive deacidified rain. Within 3 years, soil nitrogen (N) mineralization has increased and the growing season has been prolonged relative to the control area. This has helped to sustain an increase in plant growth relative to the control and has also promoted increased N export in stream water. Photosynthetic capacity and carbon–nitrogen ratio of new leaves of most plant species did not change. While the ecosystem now loses N, the long-term fate of soil N is a key uncertainty in predicting the future response of boreal ecosystems to climate change. Received 18 November 1997; accepted 13 April 1998.     

Predicting Optimal Outcomes in Cognitive Therapy or Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Depressed Individuals Using the Personalized Advantage Index Approach

IntroductionAlthough psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works best for the depressed individual. In this paper, we aim to replicate a recently developed treatment selection method, using data from an RCT comparing the effects of cognitive therapy (CT) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT).Methods134 depressed patients completed the pre- and post-treatment BDI-II assessment. First, we identified baseline predictors and moderators. Second, individual treatment recommendations were generated by combining the identified predictors and moderators in an algorithm that produces the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI), a measure of the predicted advantage in one therapy compared to the other, using standard regression analyses and the leave-one-out cross-validation approach.ResultsWe found five predictors (gender, employment status, anxiety, personality disorder and quality of life) and six moderators (somatic complaints, cognitive problems, paranoid symptoms, interpersonal self-sacrificing, attributional style and number of life events) of treatment outcome. The mean average PAI value was 8.9 BDI points, and 63% of the sample was predicted to have a clinically meaningful advantage in one of the therapies. Those who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment (either CT or IPT) had an observed mean end-BDI of 11.8, while those who received their predicted non-optimal treatment had an end-BDI of 17.8 (effect size for the difference = 0.51).DiscussionDepressed patients who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment fared much better than those randomized to their predicted non-optimal treatment. The PAI provides a great opportunity for formal decision-making to improve individual patient outcomes in depression. Although the utility of the PAI approach will need to be evaluated in prospective research, this study promotes the development of a treatment selection approach that can be used in regular mental health care, advancing the goals of personalized medicine.     

Magnitude of Stratification in Human Populations and Impacts on Genome Wide Association Studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may be biased by population stratification (PS). We conducted empirical quantification of the magnitude of PS among human populations and its impact on GWAS. Liver tissues were collected from 979, 59 and 49 Caucasian Americans (CA), African Americans (AA) and Hispanic Americans (HA), respectively, and genotyped using Illumina650Y (Ilmn650Y) arrays. RNA was also isolated and hybridized to Agilent whole-genome gene expression arrays. We propose a new method (i.e., hgdp-eigen) for detecting PS by projecting genotype vectors for each sample to the eigenvector space defined by the Human Genetic Diversity Panel (HGDP). Further, we conducted GWAS to map expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for the ∼40,000 liver gene expression traits monitored by the Agilent arrays. HGDP-eigen performed similarly to the conventional self-eigen methods in capturing PS. However, leveraging the HGDP offered a significant advantage in revealing the origins, directions and magnitude of PS. Adjusting for eigenvectors had minor impacts on eQTL detection rates in CA. In contrast, for AA and HA, adjustment dramatically reduced association findings. At an FDR = 10%, we identified 65 eQTLs in AA with the unadjusted analysis, but only 18 eQTLs after the eigenvector adjustment. Strikingly, 55 out of the 65 unadjusted AA eQTLs were validated in CA, indicating that the adjustment procedure significantly reduced GWAS power. A number of the 55 AA eQTLs validated in CA overlapped with published disease associated SNPs. For example, rs646776 and rs10903129 have previously been associated with lipid levels and coronary heart disease risk, however, the rs10903129 eQTL was missed in the eigenvector adjusted analysis.     

The Atlas of Chinese World Wide Web Ecosystem Shaped by the Collective Attention Flows

The web can be regarded as an ecosystem of digital resources connected and shaped by collective successive behaviors of users. Knowing how people allocate limited attention on different resources is of great importance. To answer this, we embed the most popular Chinese web sites into a high dimensional Euclidean space based on the open flow network model of a large number of Chinese users’ collective attention flows, which both considers the connection topology of hyperlinks between the sites and the collective behaviors of the users. With these tools, we rank the web sites and compare their centralities based on flow distances with other metrics. We also study the patterns of attention flow allocation, and find that a large number of web sites concentrate on the central area of the embedding space, and only a small fraction of web sites disperse in the periphery. The entire embedding space can be separated into 3 regions(core, interim, and periphery). The sites in the core (1%) occupy a majority of the attention flows (40%), and the sites (34%) in the interim attract 40%, whereas other sites (65%) only take 20% flows. What’s more, we clustered the web sites into 4 groups according to their positions in the space, and found that similar web sites in contents and topics are grouped together. In short, by incorporating the open flow network model, we can clearly see how collective attention allocates and flows on different web sites, and how web sites connected each other.     

用商品群作为参考系构建猪的微卫星连锁图谱

由 19头杂种公猪 [皮特兰× (皮特兰×汉普夏 ) ]、5 2头杂种母猪 [Leicoma× (大约克×长白 ) ]及其 332头后代组成的商品群作为参考系 ,选择 172个微卫星标记和 3个Ⅰ类标记 (RYR1、PIT1、PRKAG3)对参考系的个体进行遗传标记分型 ,应用CRIMAP(2 4 )构建猪的整个基因组微卫星连锁图谱。采用多重PCR方法对微卫星标记进行扩增 ,用ABI 377测序仪进行电泳分离 ,应用Genescan 3 0和Genotyper 2 0软件进行基因型检测。 3个Ⅰ类标记用PCR RFLP技术进行分型。CRIMAP程序分析表明 :所构建的猪常染色体性平均连锁图谱的总长度为 2 36 8 7cM ,X染色体的长度为 14 3 10cM ,遗传标记的平均间距为 16 3cM ,亲本的微卫星标记座位的杂合度平均为 0 70。此连锁图谱的构建将为商品猪群的生长、胴体、肉质以及繁殖性状的QTL扫描打下基础。     

Mapping Soil Erosion Prevention Using an Ecosystem Service Modeling Framework for Integrated Land Management and Policy

Current spatially explicit approaches to map and assess ecosystem services are often grounded on unreliable proxy data based on land use/cover to derive ecosystem service indicators. These approaches fail to make a distinction between the actual service provision and the underlying ecosystem capacity to provide the service. We present an integrative conceptual framework to estimate the provision of soil erosion prevention by combining the structural impact of soil erosion and the social–ecological processes that allow for its mitigation. The framework was tested and illustrated in the Portel municipality in Southern Portugal, a Mediterranean silvo-pastoral system that is prone to desertification and soil degradation. The results show a clear difference in the spatial and temporal distribution of the capacity for ecosystem service provision and the actual ecosystem service provision. It also shows that although the average actual ecosystem service provision in the region is sufficient to mitigate the existing structural impact, vulnerable areas can be identified where significant soil losses are not mitigated at present. This becomes more significant when comparing different land management intensities. Considering these results, we argue that the general assumption that there is an almost direct relation between the capacity for ecosystem service provision of a given area and the actual ecosystem service provision is wrong. We also discuss how the framework presented here could be used to support land management and policy, and how it can be adapted for other regulating services.     

Ecosystem Management of Desertified Shrublands in Israel

The objectives of this study were to understand the ecological processes and possible management strategies in desertified shrublands. We hypothesized that biological production and diversity in desertified shrublands in the Negev in Israel are low due to water, soil, and nutrient leakage from the ecosystem. We designed a series of field experiments in order to examine (a) whether source–sink relationships exist between the crusted soil and the shrub patches, (b) whether resources (water, soil, and nutrients) leak from the system, and (c) whether management, which changes the landscape mosaic by introducing new sink patches that reduce leakage of resources, may increase productivity and diversity. The results indicate that the low number of shrub patches, which serve as sinks for resources, leads to water, soil, and nutrient leakage from the ecosystem. This leakage reduces ecosystem production and diversity. We found that artificially created pits, which act as sinks for resources, decrease leakage and increase biomass production and annual plant species diversity. Based on the experimental results, we developed conceptual models for shrubland desertification and ecosystem management. The models are based on a source–sink relationship between two patch types characteristic of shrublands. The models relate landscape productivity to the number of sink patches and suggest that, in cases where there are too few sinks, artificially created sink patches should be added. Management methods were developed to reduce resource leakage in the desertified shrubland of the Negev. Methods included construction of man-made pits in the landscape that add resource-enriched patches to the landscape. These patches are used to create parks consisting of clusters of trees integrated into a matrix of shrubs and herbaceous vegetation. The managed parks are used for recreational purposes and for rangeland. Received 8 July 1997; accepted 7 July 1998.