Menopause as a regulatory device for matching the demand for children with its supply: A hypothesis

Drawing on two assumptions: that menopause is an instrument for the efficient regulation of the duration of a biologically expensive state, and that people have children in order to obtain support from them in old age, we set out a new idea that seeks to explain both the occurrence of menopause and its timing. On the basis of the notion that the purpose of having children is to obtain support in old age, we perceive menopause as an upper limit to the fertile state, when a continued ability to give birth to children would not generate the desired support. The conjecture yields specific testable predictions, and can be assessed against the “reproductive conflict” hypothesis. Being supported by one’s offspring is a distinctive feature of humans; in this context, we cannot rely on animal studies in evolutionary biology and related fields to help us to ascertain something that is specific to humans.     

Some capabilities for model-based and model-free linkage analysis using the program package S.A.G.E. (Statistical Analysis for Genetic Epidemiology)

For both model-free and model-based linkage analysis the S.A.G.E. (Statistical Analysis for Genetic Epidemiology) program package has some unique capabilities in analyzing both continuous traits and binary traits with variable age of onset. Here we highlight model-based linkage analysis of a quantitative trait (plasma dopamine β hydroxylase) that is known to be largely determined by monogenic inheritance, using a prior segregation analysis to produce the best fitting model for the trait. For a binary trait with variable age of onset (schizophrenia), we illustrate how using age of onset information to obtain a quantitative susceptibility trait leads to more statistically significant linkage signals, suggesting better power.     

Non-parametric estimation of the age-at-onset distribution from a cross-sectional sample

We propose and study a simple and innovative non-parametric approach to estimate the age-of-onset distribution for a disease from a cross-sectional sample of the population that includes individuals with prevalent disease. First, we estimate the joint distribution of two event times, the age of disease onset and the survival time after disease onset. We accommodate that individuals had to be alive at the time of the study by conditioning on their survival until the age at sampling. We propose a computationally efficient expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm and derive the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates. From these joint probabilities we then obtain non-parametric estimates of the age-at-onset distribution by marginalizing over the survival time after disease onset to death. The method accommodates categorical covariates and can be used to obtain unbiased estimates of the covariate distribution in the source population. We show in simulations that our method performs well in finite samples even under large amounts of truncation for prevalent cases. We apply the proposed method to data from female participants in the Washington Ashkenazi Study to estimate the age-at-onset distribution of breast cancer associated with carrying BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.     

An evaluation of two biochemical methods of age determination in insects (pteridines and lipofuscins) using the ant Polyrhachis sexpinosa Latrielle (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Accurate information on the age of wild-caught animals is valuable for a variety of areas, but can be particularly difficult to obtain for small holometabolous insects, whose body size is fixed at the time of pupal eclosion. A variety of chemical groups, such as lipofuscins and pteridines accumulate in body tissues through time and can be used to predict age in a variety of arthropod taxa. Here we use spectrofluorometry to confirm the presence of extractable levels of lipofuscins and pteridines in individual social insects (using the ant Polyrhachis sexpinosa Latrielle, average body size 25 mg, as an example) and evaluate their ability to predict age. Pteridine levels were independent of age but lipofuscin levels increased with age in a predictable manner ( r ² = 72.8%). Lipofuscin levels therefore represent a new method of age determination for social insects that should be applicable to both individual laboratory and wild-caught animals.     

Use of archival tissue in epidemiologic studies: collection procedures and assessment of potential sources of bias

Collection and analyses of archival tumor tissue as a means to increase our understanding of disease pathways is becoming an important avenue of epidemiologic research. In this paper, we present methods of collection and processing of archival tissue and assess the population characteristics of those for whom we were able to and unable to obtain tumor DNA. Cases of colon cancer diagnosed between September, 1991 and October, 1994 living in Utah, Northern California, or the Twin Cities Metropolitan area of Minnesota were targeted for this study. Of the 2477 people for whom we had permission to obtain tumor blocks, we were able to collect blocks and extract DNA for 2117 (85.5%). There were no differences in age, tumor site, or diet and lifestyle characteristics between those with and without DNA extracted. However, we were less likely to be able to extract DNA if the case was diagnosed at a more advanced disease stage or at the earliest disease. Potential bias from exclusion of those with the most advanced disease stage is discussed.     

Bayesian fine-scale mapping of disease loci, by hidden Markov models

We present a new multilocus method for the fine-scale mapping of genes contributing to human diseases. The method is designed for use with multiple biallelic markers-in particular, single-nucleotide polymorphisms for which high-density genetic maps will soon be available. We model disease-marker association in a candidate region via a hidden Markov process and allow for correlation between linked marker loci. Using Markov-chain-Monte Carlo simulation methods, we obtain posterior distributions of model parameter estimates including disease-gene location and the age of the disease-predisposing mutation. In addition, we allow for heterogeneity in recombination rates, across the candidate region, to account for recombination hot and cold spots. We also obtain, for the ancestral marker haplotype, a posterior distribution that is unique to our method and that, unlike maximum-likelihood estimation, can properly account for uncertainty. We apply the method to data for cystic fibrosis and Huntington disease, for which mutations in disease genes have already been identified. The new method performs well compared with existing multi-locus mapping methods.     

A simple model of linkage disequilibrium and genetic drift in human genomic SNPs: importance of demography and SNP age

We propose a simple model of evolution at a pair of SNP loci, under mutation, genetic drift and recombination. The developed model allows to consider evolution of SNPs under different demographic scenarios. We applied it to SNP data containing polymorphisms spanning 19 gene regions. We initially matched the linkage disequilibrium (LD) data only, and then we reconciled both LD and heterozygosity data. The imbalance between LD and heterozygosity data, observed for some of the analyzed genomic regions, may be a signature of selection acting in these regions. However, assuming neutrality, we obtain estimates of the age of population expansion of modern humans, which are consistent with the consensus estimates. In addition, we are able to estimate the ages of the polymorphisms observed in different genomic regions and we find that they vary widely with respect to their age. Polymorphisms at loci implicated in human disease, seem to be younger than average. Our results supplement the conclusions originally obtained by Reich and co-workers for the same set of data.     

Accuracy and repeatability of moose (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alces alces</Emphasis>) age as estimated from dental cement layers

Optimal research and management of species with age structure often depends on estimates of age-specific population parameters, which in turn depends on reliable methods for age determination. By counting annuli in the cementum of incisor root tips from 51 known-age moose (Alces alces) between 1 and 12 years old, we examined the variation in accuracy and repeatability of age estimates provided by three research technicians with different experiences of aging moose. The most experienced technician estimated the moose age correctly in up to 90% of the cases, while the technician with no prior experience estimated age correctly in up to 73% of the cases. The medium-experienced technician achieved a lower accuracy (up to 53%), indicating that experience alone is not sufficient if the basic training or lack of routine checks against other colleagues or a known-age material are not undertaken. The percentage moose aged within ±1 year from correct age was significantly higher in all technicians (94–98%). After the generally high accuracy, we also found high repeatability (0.980–0.994) within technicians. We conclude that this method of age-determination provides reliable estimates that can be used by management and research to gain information about age-specific patterns in moose populations. However, to obtain estimates of high accuracy the technicians should be well trained, have gained the necessary experience, and most preferably, have access to a sample of teeth from known-age moose.     

The reliability of approximate reduction techniques in population models with two time scales

As a result of the complexity inherent in some natural systems, mathematical models employed in ecology are often governed by a large number of variables. For instance, in the study of population dynamics we often find multiregional models for structured populations in which individuals are classified regarding their age and their spatial location. Dealing with such structured populations leads to high dimensional models. Moreover, in many instances the dynamics of the system is controlled by processes whose time scales are very different from each other. For example, in multiregional models migration is often a fast process in comparison to the growth of the population.Approximate reduction techniques take advantage of the presence of different time scales in a system to introduce approximations that allow one to transform the original system into a simpler low dimensional system. In this way, the dynamics of the original system can be approximated in terms of that of the reduced system. This work deals with the study of that approximation. In particular, we work with a non-autonomous discrete time model previously presented in the literature and obtain different bounds for the error we incur when we describe the dynamics of the original system in terms of the reduced one.The results are illustrated by some numerical simulations corresponding to the reduction of a Leslie type model for a population structured in two age classes and living in a two patch system.     

Incorrect handling of calibration information in divergence time inference: an example from volcanic islands

Divergence time studies rely on calibration information from several sources. The age of volcanic islands is one of the standard references to obtain chronological data to estimate the absolute times of lineage diversifications. This strategy assumes that cladogenesis is necessarily associated with island formation, and punctual calibrations are commonly used to date the splits of endemic island species. Here, we re-examined three studies that inferred divergence times for different Hawaiian lineages assuming fixed calibration points. We show that, by permitting probabilistic calibrations, some divergences are estimated to be significantly younger or older than the age of the island formation, thus yielding distinct ecological scenarios for the speciation process. The results highlight the importance of using calibration information correctly, as well as the possibility of incorporating volcanic island studies into a formal, biogeographical hypothesis-testing framework.     

Assessment of skin carbonyl content as a noninvasive measure of biological age.

The oxidative modification of proteins by reactive species, especially reactive oxygen species, is implicated in the etiology or progression of a panoply of disorders and diseases. For the most part, oxidatively modified proteins are not repaired and must be removed by proteolytic degradation. The level of these modified molecules can be quantitated by measurement of the protein carbonyl content, which has been shown to increase in a variety of diseases and processes, most notably during aging. However, these studies have required invasive techniques to obtain cells for analysis. We examined the possibility that desquamating skin cells (corneocytes) would also show an age-related increase in protein carbonyl content, thus providing a noninvasive method for assessing biological age. This was not the case, as we found no age-dependent relationship in the protein carbonyl content of skin cells from volunteers aged 20 to 79 years.     

Rapid assay for cell age response to radiation by electronic volume flow cell sorting

A new technique is described for measuring cell survival as a function of cell cycle position using flow cytometric cell sorting on the basis of electronic volume signals. The sorting of cells into different cell age compartments is demonstrated for three different cell lines commonly used in radiobiological research. Using flow cytometric DNA content analysis and [3H]thymidine autoradiography of the sorted cell populations, we demonstrate that the resolution of the age compartment separation is as good as or better than that reported for other cell synchronizing techniques. The variation in cell survival as a function of position in the cell cycle after a single dose of radiation as measured by volume cell sorting is similar to that determined by other cell synchrony techniques. This new method has several advantages, including: no treatment of the cells is required, thus, this method is noncytotoxic; no cell cycle progression is needed to obtain different cell age compartments; the cell population can be held in complete growth medium at any desired temperature during sorting; and a complete radiation age-response assay can be plated in 2 h. The application of this method to problems in radiobiology and chemotherapy is discussed, along with some of the technical limitations.     

Linkage analysis of extremely discordant and concordant sibling pairs identifies quantitative trait loci influencing variation in human menopausal age

Age at natural menopause may be used as parameter for evaluating the rate of ovarian aging. Environmental factors determine only a small part of the large variation in menopausal age. Studies have shown that genetic factors are likely to be involved in variation in menopausal age. To identify quantitative-trait loci for this trait, we performed a genomewide linkage study with age at natural menopause as a continuous quantitative phenotype in Dutch sister pairs, through use of a selective sampling scheme. A total of 165 families were ascertained using extreme selected sampling and were genotyped for 417 markers. Data were analyzed by Haseman-Elston regression and by an adjusted variance-components analysis. Subgroup analyses for early and late menopausal age were conducted by Haseman-Elston regression. In the adjusted variance-components analysis, 12 chromosomes had a LOD score of > or =1.0. Two chromosomal regions showed suggestive linkage: 9q21.3 (LOD score 2.6) and Xp21.3 (LOD score 3.1). Haseman-Elston regression showed rather similar locations of the peaks but yielded lower LOD scores. A permutation test to obtain empirical P values resulted in a significant peak on the X chromosome. To our knowledge, this is the first study to attempt to identify loci responsible for variability in menopausal age and in which several chromosomal regions were identified with suggestive and significant linkage. Although the finding of the region on the X chromosome comes as no surprise, because of its widespread involvement in premature ovarian failure, the definition of which particular gene is involved is of great interest. The region on chromosome 9 deserves further consideration. Both findings require independent confirmation.     

Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data

The effective reproduction number of an infection, denoted Re, may be used to monitor the impact of a vaccination programme. If Re is maintained below 1, then sustained endemic transmission of the infection cannot occur. In this paper we discuss methods for estimating Re from serological survey data, allowing for age and individual heterogeneity. We describe semi-parametric and parametric models, and obtain an upper bound on Re when vaccine coverage and efficacy are not known. The methods are illustrated using data on mumps and rubella in England and Wales.     

New method for estimation of adult skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium

A new method for estimating skeletal age at death from the morphology of the auricular surface of the ilium is presented. It uses a multiple regression analysis with dummy variables, and is based on the examination of 700 modern Japanese skeletal remains with age records. The observer using this method needs only to check for the presence or absence of nine (for a male) or seven (for a female) features on the auricular surface and to select the parameter estimates of each feature, calculated by multiple regression analysis with dummy variables. The observer can obtain an estimated age from the sum of parameter estimates. It is shown that a fine granular texture of the auricular surface is typical of younger individuals, whereas a heavily porous texture is characteristic of older individuals, and that both of these features are very useful for estimating age. Our method is shown here to be more accurate than other methods, especially in the older age ranges. Since the auricular surface allows more expedient observations than other parts of the skeleton, this new method can be expected to improve the overall accuracy of estimating skeletal age at death.     

Predictors of uptake of obesity genetic testing among affected adults

Given that a large number of candidate genes coding for a tendency toward obesity have been identified and some findings have been replicated, we explored characteristics of those who would be most likely to obtain future genetic testing for this tendency. During a series of focus groups, obese respondents rated their likelihood of obtaining testing under conditions in which either genetically-targeted drug treatment would be available, a positive test would be associated with a prognosis for developing diabetes, or neither of these. Interest in testing was greater given the first two scenarios than the third. Older age and belief that genetics were an important cause of obesity were associated with greater interest. For the first two scenarios, higher educational status was associated with greater interest, while for the third, respondents who said emotional issues caused overweight and those who crash-dieted intermittently were more likely to want genetic testing. Although further research is required to validate these findings, this study is the first published report of respondents’ ratings of likelihood to obtain genetic testing for propensity to obesity, and suggests strong interest in genetic testing among some people, even in the absence of further treatment implications of the test.     

Effect of Tooth Removal on Recaptures of Raccoons

Abstract: Researchers have extensively used mark—recapture techniques to obtain information on demographic parameters of wildlife populations. However, researchers have recognized that a number of factors can influence capture probabilities of wildlife species, which in turn can bias mark—recapture estimates of demographic parameters. Tooth extraction, which is a commonly used technique in studies of mesopredator species to obtain precise age estimates and to monitor the use of vaccine baits, is an aspect of animal handling that clearly might affect the recapture probability of individuals. However, the effect that tooth removal has on the individual recapture probabilities of wildlife species is unknown. During 2005, we trapped and marked 91 raccoons (Procyon lotor) in northern Indiana, USA, as part of a mark—recapture study designed specifically to determine if tooth extractions have an effect on recapture probabilities of individuals. We performed tooth extractions on 50% of the raccoons at the time of capture, and we attempted to balance tooth extractions with respect to sex and age of raccoons. We used logistic regression to model the effects of sex, age, and tooth removal on recapture probabilities, and we used Mann—Whitney U-tests to examine the effect of tooth removal on the number of times we recaptured individuals. The probability of recapture differed between sexes but did not differ as a function of tooth removal or among age classes. In addition, we failed to detect any difference in the mean number of times that we recaptured raccoons between the tooth removed and non—tooth-removed groups. Our results suggest that managers can use tooth extractions as an effective management tool without biasing population estimates or compromising other management objectives.     

Extrapair paternity in the blue tit (Parus caeruleus) : female choice, male charateristics, and offspring quality

Extrapair paternity is common in many birds, and it is now generallyaccepted that female choice plays an important role. However,die benefits that females obtain from extrapair paternity aremuch less dear. To test the hypothesis that females obtain indirectfitness benefits, we studied paternity in a blue tit populationover 4 years. Extrapair paternity occurred in 31-47% of allnests and accounted for 11-14% of all offspring. Most malesthat fathered extrapair young did not lose paternity themselves,males never "exchanged" paternity, and within nests the extrapairoffspring were usually fathered by a single male. Comparisonsbetween males that did and did not lose paternity and pairwisecomparisons between the extrapair male(s) and the within-pairmale showed that successful males had longer tarsi and sangon average longer strophes during the dawn chorus. Successfulmales weighed less (relative to their size) during the nettlingstage, but nevertheless they survived better. Male age did notinfluence their likelihood of losing paternity, but extrapairmales were usually older than the within-pair male they cuckolded.Within nests with mixed paternity, extrapair young were morelikely to survive than within-pair young in cases of partialbrood mortality. Our data also suggest that extrapair offspringwere more likely to be males. Because extrapair males were usuallyclose neighbors, male quality should be considered relativeto the quality of the neighbors. Despite this, we found consistencyin female choice over years. Our observations provide supportfor the hypothesis that female blue tits engage in extrapaircopulations to obtain good genes for their offspring.