Reconstructing ancestral character states: a critical reappraisal

Using parsimony to reconstruct ancestral character states on a phylogenetic tree has become a popular method for testing ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Despite its popularity, the assumptions and uncertainties of reconstructing the ancestral states of a single character have received less attention than the much less challenging endeavor of reconstructing phylogenetic trees from many characters. Recent research suggests that parsimony reconstructions are often sensitive to violations of the almost universal assumption of equal probabilities of gains and losses. In addition, maximum likelihood has been developed as an alternative to parsimony reconstruction, and has also revealed a surprising amount of uncertainty in ancestral reconstructions.     

Something for nothing? Reconstruction of ancestral character states in asterinid sea star development

SUMMARY Traits from early development mapped onto phylogenetic trees can potentially offer insight into the evolutionary history of development by inferring the states of those characters among ancestors at nodes in the phylogeny. A key and often-overlooked aspect of such mapping is the underlying model of character evolution. Without a well-supported and realistic model ("nothing"), character mapping of ancestral traits onto phylogenetic trees might often return results ("something") that lack a sound basis. Here we reconsider a challenging case study in this area of evolutionary developmental biology: the inference of ancestral states for ecological and morphological characters in the reproduction and larval development of asterinid sea stars. We apply improved analytical methods to an expanded set of asterinid phylogenetic data and developmental character states. This analysis shows that the new methods might generally offer some independent insight into choice of a model of character evolution, but that in the specific case of asterinid sea stars the quantitative features of the model (especially the relative probabilities of different directions of change) have an important effect on the results. We suggest caution in applying ancestral state reconstructions in the absence of an independently corroborated model of character evolution, and highlight the need for such modeling in evolutionary developmental biology.     

Analysis of character correlations among wood decay mechanisms,mating systems,and substrate ranges in homobasidiomycetes

Homobasidiomycetes include the majority of wood-decaying fungi. Two basic forms of wood decay are known in homobasidiomycetes: white rot, in which lignin and cellulose are degraded, and brown rot, in which lignin is not appreciably degraded. An apparent correlation has been noted between production of a brown rot, decay of conifer substrates, and possession of a bipolar mating system (which has a single mating-type locus, in contrast to tetrapolar systems, which have two mating-type loci). The goals of this study were to infer the historical pattern of transformations in decay mode, mating type, and substrate range characters, and to determine if a causal relationship exists among them. Using nuclear and mitochondrial rDNA sequences, we performed a phylogenetic analysis of 130 species of homobasidiomycetes and performed ancestral state reconstructions by using parsimony on a range of trees, with various loss:gain cost ratios. We evaluated pairwise character correlations by using the concentrated changes test (CCT) of Maddison and the maximum likelihood (ML) method of Pagel. White rot, tetrapolar mating systems, and the ability to decay conifers and hardwoods appear to be plesiomorphic in homobasidiomycetes, whereas brown rot, bipolar mating systems, and exclusive decay of conifers appear to have evolved repeatedly. The only significant correlation among characters was that between brown rot (as the independent character) and exclusive decay of conifer substrates (P < 0.03). This correlation was supported by the CCT on a range of plausible trees, although not with every reconstruction of ancestral states, and by the ML test. Our findings suggest that the evolution of brown rot has promoted repeated shifts to specialization for confier substrates.     

Positive correlations between molecular and morphological rates of evolution

The existence of positive associations between rates of molecular and morphological evolution (calculated from branch lengths of phylogenetic trees reconstructed using molecular and morphological characters, respectively) is important to issues of neutrality in sequence evolution, phylogenetic reconstructions assuming neutrality, and evolutionary genotype-phenotype mapping. Rates correlate positively when including branches leading to extant species (tips). Excluding tips, trends are similar, but statistical significances decrease systematically. This is due to (a) lower statistical power (excluding tips reduces sample sizes), and (b) rates are solely calculated from inaccurately reconstructed character states of extinct ancestral species, and this noise decreases correlation strengths. Correlations between molecular and morphological rates of evolution increase as more morphological characters are included for phylogenetic reconstruction. Sequence lengths apparently affect correlations along similar principles. Analyses of plant phylogenies confirm those from animals: sampling biases decrease correlations between molecular and morphological rates of evolution. Results confirm that genotype and phenotype are linked, and suggest adaptive components for molecular evolution. The discussion stresses the difficulties associated with analyses and conclusions based on data deduced from phylogenetic reconstruction.     

Systematics and morphological evolution within the moss family Bryaceae: a comparison between parsimony and Bayesian methods for reconstruction of ancestral character states

The Bryaceae are a large cosmopolitan moss family including genera of significant morphological and taxonomic complexity. Phylogenetic relationships within the Bryaceae were reconstructed based on DNA sequence data from all three genomic compartments. In addition, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were employed to reconstruct ancestral character states of 38 morphological plus four habitat characters and eight insertion/deletion events. The recovered phylogenetic patterns are generally in accord with previous phylogenies based on chloroplast DNA sequence data and three major clades are identified. The first clade comprises Bryum bornholmense, B. rubens, B. caespiticium, and Plagiobryum. This corroborates the hypothesis suggested by previous studies that several Bryum species are more closely related to Plagiobryum than to the core Bryum species. The second clade includes Acidodontium, Anomobryum, and Haplodontium, while the third clade contains the core Bryum species plus Imbribryum. Within the latter clade, B. subapiculatum and B. tenuisetum form the sister clade to Imbribryum. Reconstructions of ancestral character states under maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference suggest fourteen morphological synapomorphies for the ingroup and synapomorphies are detected for most clades within the ingroup. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral character states are mostly congruent although Bayesian inference shows that the posterior probability of ancestral character states may decrease dramatically when node support is taken into account. Bayesian inference also indicates that reconstructions may be ambiguous at internal nodes for highly polymorphic characters.     

Bayesian estimation of ancestral character states on phylogenies

Biologists frequently attempt to infer the character states at ancestral nodes of a phylogeny from the distribution of traits observed in contemporary organisms. Because phylogenies are normally inferences from data, it is desirable to account for the uncertainty in estimates of the tree and its branch lengths when making inferences about ancestral states or other comparative parameters. Here we present a general Bayesian approach for testing comparative hypotheses across statistically justified samples of phylogenies, focusing on the specific issue of reconstructing ancestral states. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for sampling phylogenetic trees and for investigating the parameters of a statistical model of trait evolution. We describe how to combine information about the uncertainty of the phylogeny with uncertainty in the estimate of the ancestral state. Our approach does not constrain the sample of trees only to those that contain the ancestral node or nodes of interest, and we show how to reconstruct ancestral states of uncertain nodes using a most-recent-common-ancestor approach. We illustrate the methods with data on ribonuclease evolution in the Artiodactyla. Software implementing the methods (BayesMultiState) is available from the authors.     

Understanding Phenotypical Character Evolution in Parmelioid Lichenized Fungi (Parmeliaceae,Ascomycota)

Parmelioid lichens form a species-rich group of predominantly foliose and fruticose lichenized fungi encompassing a broad range of morphological and chemical diversity. Using a multilocus approach, we reconstructed a phylogeny including 323 OTUs of parmelioid lichens and employed ancestral character reconstruction methods to understand the phenotypical evolution within this speciose group of lichen-forming fungi. Specifically, we were interested in the evolution of growth form, epicortex structure, and cortical chemistry. Since previous studies have shown that results may differ depending on the reconstruction method used, here we employed both maximum-parsimony and maximum-likelihood approaches to reconstruct ancestral character states. We have also implemented binary and multistate coding of characters and performed parallel analyses with both coding types to assess for potential coding-based biases. We reconstructed the ancestral states for nine well-supported major clades in the parmelioid group, two higher-level sister groups and the ancestral character state for all parmelioid lichens. We found that different methods for coding phenotypical characters and different ancestral character state reconstruction methods mostly resulted in identical reconstructions but yield conflicting inferences of ancestral states, in some cases. However, we found support for the ancestor of parmelioid lichens having been a foliose lichen with a non-pored epicortex and pseudocyphellae. Our data suggest that some traits exhibit patterns of evolution consistent with adaptive radiation.     

ANCESTRAL CHARACTER ESTIMATION UNDER THE THRESHOLD MODEL FROM QUANTITATIVE GENETICS

Evolutionary biology is a study of life's history on Earth. In researching this history, biologists are often interested in attempting to reconstruct phenotypes for the long extinct ancestors of living species. Various methods have been developed to do this on a phylogeny from the data for extant taxa. In the present article, I introduce a new approach for ancestral character estimation for discretely valued traits. This approach is based on the threshold model from evolutionary quantitative genetics. Under the threshold model, the value exhibited by an individual or species for a discrete character is determined by an underlying, unobserved continuous trait called “liability.” In this new method for ancestral state reconstruction, I use Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to sample the liabilities of ancestral and tip species, and the relative positions of two or more thresholds, from their joint posterior probability distribution. Using data simulated under the model, I find that the method has very good performance in ancestral character estimation. Use of the threshold model for ancestral state reconstruction relies on a priori specification of the order of the discrete character states along the liability axis. I test the use of a Bayesian MCMC information theoretic criterion based approach to choose among different hypothesized orderings for the discrete character. Finally, I apply the method to the evolution of feeding mode in centrarchid fishes.     

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.     

追溯山茱萸科植物的性状进化和生物地理学历史——方法选择的影响?

This study compares results on reconstructing the ancestral state of characters and ancestral areas of distribution in Cornaceae to gain insights into the impact of using different analytical methods. Ancestral character state reconstructions were compared among three methods (parsimony, maximum likelihood, and stochastic character mapping) using MESQUITE and a full Bayesian method in BAYESTRAITS and inferences of ancestral area distribution were compared between the parsimony-based dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA) and a newly developed maximum likelihood (ML) method. Results indicated that among the six inflorescence and fruit characters examined, "perfect" binary characters (no homoplasy, no polymorphism within terminals, and no missing data) are little affected by choice of method, while homoplasious characters and missing data are sensitive to methods used. Ancestral areas at deep nodes of the phylogeny are substantially different between DIVA and ML and strikingly different between analyses including and excluding fossils at three deepest nodes. These results, while raising caution in making conclusions on trait evolution and historical biogeography using conventional methods, demonstrate a limitation in our current understanding of character evolution and biogeography. The biogeographic history favored by the ML analyses including fossils suggested the origin and early radiation of Cornus likely occurred in the late Cretaceous and earliest Tertiary in Europe and intercontinental disjunctions in three lineages involved movements across the North Atlantic Land Bridge (BLB) in the early and mid Tertiary. This result is congruent with the role of NALB for post-Eocene migration and in connecting tropical floras in North America and Africa, and in eastern Asia and South America. However, alternative hypotheses with an origin in eastern Asia and early Trans-Beringia migrations of the genus cannot be ruled out.     

Evolution of habitat preference in Clitellata (Annelida)

Clitellata (earthworms, leeches, and allies) is a clade of segmented annelid worms that comprise more than 5000 species found worldwide in many aquatic and terrestrial habitats. According to current views, the first clitellates were either aquatic (marine or freshwater) or terrestrial. To address this question further, we assessed the phylogenetic relationships among clitellates using parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of 175 annelid 18S ribosomal DNA sequences. We then defined two ecological characters (Habitat and Aquatic‐environment preferences) and mapped those characters on the trees from the three analyses, using parsimony character‐state reconstruction (i.e. Fitch optimization). We accommodated phylogenetic uncertainty in the character mapping by reconstructing character evolution on all the trees resulting from parsimony and maximum likelihood bootstrap analyses and, in the Bayesian inference, on the trees sampled using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Our analyses revealed that an ‘aquatic’ ancestral state for clitellates is a robust result. By using alterations of coding characters and constrained analyses, we also demonstrated that the hypothesis for a terrestrial origin of clitellates is not supported. Our analyses also suggest that the most recent ancestor of clitellates originated from a freshwater environment. However, we stress the importance of adding sequences of some rare marine taxa to more rigorously assess the freshwater origin of Clitellata. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 95 , 447–464.     

Bayesian inference of character evolution

Much recent progress in evolutionary biology is based on the inference of ancestral states and past transformations in important traits on phylogenetic trees. These exercises often assume that the tree is known without error and that ancestral states and character change can be mapped onto it exactly. In reality, there is often considerable uncertainty about both the tree and the character mapping. Recently introduced Bayesian statistical methods enable the study of character evolution while simultaneously accounting for both phylogenetic and mapping uncertainty, adding much needed credibility to the reconstruction of evolutionary history.     

Tracking character evolution and biogeographic history through time in Cornaceae - Does choice of methods matter?

This study compares results on reconstructing the ancestral state of characters and ancestral areas of distribution in Cornaceae to gain insights into the impact of using different analytical methods. Ancestral character state reconstructions were compared among three methods (parsimony, maximum likelihood, and stochastic character mapping) using MESQUITE and a full Bayesian method in BAYESTRAITS and inferences of ancestral area distribution were compared between the parsimony-based dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA) and a newly developed maximum likelihood (ML) method. Results indicated that among the six inflorescence and fruit char-acters examined, “perfect” binary characters (no homoplasy, no polymorphism within terminals, and no missing data) are little affected by choice of method, while homoplasious characters and missing data are sensitive to methods used. Ancestral areas at deep nodes of the phylogeny are substantially different between DIVA and ML and strikingly different between analyses including and excluding fossils at three deepest nodes. These results, while raising caution in making conclusions on trait evolution and historical biogeography using conventional methods, demonstrate a limitation in our current understanding of character evolution and biogeography. The biogeographic history favored by the ML analyses including fossils suggested the origin and early radiation of Cornus likely occurred in the late Cretaceous and earliest Tertiary in Europe and intercontinental disjunctions in three lineages involved movements across the North Atlantic Land Bridge (BLB) in the early and mid Tertiary. This result is congruent with the role of NALB for post-Eocene migration and in connecting tropical floras in North America and Africa, and in eastern Asia and South America. However, alternative hypotheses with an origin in eastern Asia and early Trans-Beringia migrations of the genus cannot be ruled out.     

EXAMINING TWO STANDARD ASSUMPTIONS OF ANCESTRAL RECONSTRUCTIONS: REPEATED LOSS OF DICHROMATISM IN DABBLING DUCKS (ANATINI)

Although phylogenetic reconstruction of ancestral character states is becoming an increasingly common technique for studying evolution, few researchers have assessed the reliability of these reconstructions. Here I test for congruence between a phylogenetic reconstruction and a widely accepted scenario based on independent lines of evidence. I used Livezey's (1991) phylogeny to reconstruct ancestral states of plumage dichromatism in dabbling ducks (Anatini). Character state mapping reconstructs monochromatic ancestors for the genus Anas as well as most of its main clades. This reconstruction differs strongly from the widely accepted scenario of speciation and plumage evolution in the group (e.g., Delacour and Mayr 1945; Sibley 1957). This incongruence may occur because two standard assumptions of character state reconstruction are probably not met in this case. Violating either of these two assumptions would be a source of error sufficient to create misleading reconstructions. The first assumption that probably does not apply to ducks is that terminal taxa, in this case species, are monophyletic. Many of the widespread dichromatic species of ducks may be paraphyletic and ancestral to isolated monochromatic species. Three lines of evidence support this scenario: population-level phylogenies, biogeography, and vestigial plumage patterns. The second assumption that probably does not apply to duck plumage color is that gains and losses of character states are equally likely. Four lines of evidence suggest that dichromatic plumage might be lost more easily than gained: weak female preferences for bright male plumage, biases toward the loss of sexually dichromatic characters, biases toward the loss of complex characters, and repeated loss of dichromatism in other groups of birds. These seven lines of evidence support the accepted scenario that widespread dichromatic species repeatedly budded off isolated monochromatic species. Drift and genetic biases probably caused the easy loss of dichromatism in ducks and other birds during peripatric speciation. In order to recover the accepted scenario using Livezey's tree, losses of dichromatism must be five times more likely than gains. The results of this study caution against the uncritical use of unordered parsimony as the sole criterion for inferring ancestral states. Detailed population-level sampling is needed and altered transformation weighting may be warranted in ducks and in many other groups and character types with similar attributes.     

Molecular phylogenetic approach for studying life-history evolution: the ambiguous example of the genus Medicago L.

We present a molecular phylogeny including most species of the genus Medicago L. (Fabaceae). Based on the consensus of the 48 most parsimonious trees, life-history and mating-system characters are mapped, and a putative history of the genus is suggested. The most parsimonious reconstruction suggests an ancestral annual and selfing state, and recurrent evolution towards perenniality and outcrossing. Based on theoretical predictions and classical hypotheses of the history of the genus, different assumptions about the ancestral state and different weighting schemes of evolution between the character states are made. Assuming an outcrossing, perennial ancestral state (partly supported by morphological features) does not fundamentally change the reconstruction. To meet theoretical expectations, various weighting schemes favouring evolution towards annuality and selfing are applied. Influence and validity of such weighting schemes are discussed with regard to other studies.     

LIKELIHOOD OF ANCESTOR STATES IN ADAPTIVE RADIATION

Theories of ecological diversification make predictions about the timing and ordering of character state changes through history. These theories are testable by “reconstructing” ancestor states using phylogenetic trees and measurements of contemporary species. Here we use maximum likelihood to estimate and evaluate the accuracy of ancestor reconstructions. We present likelihoods of discrete ancestor states and derive probability distributions for continuous ancestral traits. The methods are applied to several examples: diets of ancestral Darwin's finches; origin of inquilinism in gall wasps; microhabitat partitioning and body size evolution in scrubwrens; digestive enzyme evolution in artiodactyl mammals; origin of a sexually selected male trait, the sword, in platies and swordtails; and evolution of specialization in Anolis lizards. When changes between discrete character states are rare, the maximum-likelihood results are similar to parsimony estimates. In this case the accuracy of estimates is often high, with the exception of some nodes deep in the tree. If change is frequent then reconstructions are highly uncertain, especially of distant ancestors. Ancestor states for continuous traits are typically highly uncertain. We conclude that measures of uncertainty are useful and should always be provided, despite simplistic assumptions about the probabilistic models that underlie them. If uncertainty is too high, reconstruction should be abandoned in favor of approaches that fit different models of trait evolution to species data and phylogenetic trees, taking into account the range of ancestor states permitted by the data.     

How the worm got its pharynx: phylogeny, classification and Bayesian assessment of character evolution in Acoela

Acoela are marine microscopic worms currently thought to be the sister taxon of all other bilaterians. Acoels have long been used as models in evolutionary scenarios, and generalized conclusions about acoel and bilaterian ancestral features are frequently drawn from studies of single acoel species. There is no extensive phylogenetic study of Acoela and the taxonomy of the 380 species is chaotic. Here we use two nuclear ribosomal genes and one mitochondrial gene in combination with 37 morphological characters in an analysis of 126 acoel terminals (about one-third of the described species) to estimate the phylogeny and character evolution of Acoela. We present an estimate of posterior probabilities for ancestral character states at 31 control nodes in the phylogeny. The overall reconstruction signal based on the shape of the posterior distribution of character states was computed for all morphological characters and control nodes to assess how well these were reconstructed. The body-wall musculature appears more clearly reconstructed than the reproductive organs. Posterior similarity to the root was calculated by averaging the divergence between the posterior distributions at the nodes and the root over all morphological characters. Diopisthoporidae is the sister group to all other acoels and has the highest posterior similarity to the root. Convolutidae, including several "model" acoels, is most divergent. Finally, we present a phylogenetic classification of Acoela down to the family level where six previous family level taxa are synonymized.     

Phylogeny,biogeography, and morphological ancestral character reconstruction in the Mediterranean genus Fumana (Cistaceae)

Fumana is a diverse genus of the Cistaceae family, consisting of 21 currently accepted species. In this study, nuclear (ITS) and plastid (matK, trnT‐L) molecular markers were used to reconstruct the phylogeny and to estimate divergence times, including 19 species of Fumana. Phylogenetic analyses (Bayesian Inference, Maximum Parsimony and Maximum Likelihood) confirmed the monophyly of Fumana and did not support the infrageneric divisions previously established. The results support four main clades that group species that differ in vegetative and reproductive characters. Given the impossibility to define morphological characters common to all species within the clades, our proposal is to reject infrageneric divisions. Molecular dating and ancestral area analyses provide evidence for a Miocene diversification of the genus in the north‐western Mediterranean. Ancestral state reconstructions revealed ancestral character states for some traits related to xeric and arid habitats, suggesting a preadaptation to the Mediterranean climate.     

Plausibility of inferred ancestral phenotypes and the evaluation of alternative models of limb evolution in scincid lizards

Phylogenetic approaches to inferring ancestral character states are becoming increasingly sophisticated; however, the potential remains for available methods to yield strongly supported but inaccurate ancestral state estimates. The consistency of ancestral states inferred for two or more characters affords a useful criterion for evaluating ancestral trait reconstructions. Ancestral state estimates for multiple characters that entail plausible phenotypes when considered together may reasonably be assumed to be reliable. However, the accuracy of inferred ancestral states for one or more characters may be questionable where combined reconstructions imply implausible phenotypes for a proportion of internal nodes. This criterion for assessing reconstructed ancestral states is applied here in evaluating inferences of ancestral limb morphology in the scincid lizard clade Lerista. Ancestral numbers of digits for the manus and pes inferred assuming the models that best fit the data entail ancestral digit configurations for many nodes that differ fundamentally from configurations observed among known species. However, when an alternative model is assumed for the pes, inferred ancestral digit configurations are invariably represented among observed phenotypes. This indicates that a suboptimal model for the pes (and not the model providing the best fit to the data) yields accurate ancestral state estimates.