Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.     

PlantACT! – how to tackle the climate crisis

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have created a global climate crisis which requires immediate interventions to mitigate the negative effects on all aspects of life on this planet. As current agriculture and land use contributes up to 25% of total GHG emissions, plant scientists take center stage in finding possible solutions for a transition to sustainable agriculture and land use. In this article, the PlantACT! (Plants for climate ACTion!) initiative of plant scientists lays out a road map of how and in which areas plant scientists can contribute to finding immediate, mid-term, and long-term solutions, and what changes are necessary to implement these solutions at the personal, institutional, and funding levels.     

Cyclic Negative Feedback Systems: What is the Chance of Oscillation?

Many biological oscillators have a cyclic structure consisting of negative feedback loops. In this paper, we analyze the impact that the addition of a positive or a negative self-feedback loop has on the oscillatory behavior of the three negative feedback oscillators proposed by Tsai et al. (Science 231:126–129, 2008) where, in contrast with numerous oscillator models, the interactions between elements occur via the modulation of the degradation rates. Through analytical and computational studies we show that an additional self-feedback affects the oscillatory behavior. In the high-cooperativity limit, i.e., for large Hill coefficients, we derive exact analytical conditions for oscillations and show that the relative location between the dissociation constants of the Hill functions and the ratio of kinetic parameters determines the possibility of oscillatory activities. We compute analytically the probability of oscillations for the three models and show that the smallest domain of periodic behavior is obtained for the negative-plus-negative feedback system whereas the additional positive self-feedback loop does not modify significantly the chance to oscillate. We numerically investigate to what extent the properties obtained in the sharp situation applied in the smooth case. Results suggest that a switch-like coupling behavior, a time-scale separation, and a repressilator-type architecture with an even number of elements facilitate the emergence of sustained oscillations in biological systems. An additional positive self-feedback loop produces robustness and adaptability whereas an additional negative self-feedback loop reduces the chance to oscillate.     

Fast Pseudo-Periodic Oscillation in the Rat Brain Voltage-gated Sodium Channel α Subunit

In the work reported here, we have investigated the changes in the activation and fast inactivation properties of the rat brain voltage-gated sodium channel (rNa_v 1.2a) α subunit, expressed heterologously in the Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells, by short depolarizing prepulses (10 – 1000 ms). The time constant of recovery from fast inactivation (τ_fast) and steady-state parameters for activation and inactivation varied in a pseudo-oscillatory fashion with the duration and amplitude of a sustained prepulse. A consistent oscillation was observed in most of the steady-state and non-inactivating current parameters with a time period close to 225 ms, although a faster oscillation of time period 125 ms was observed in the τ_fast. The studies on the non-inactivating current and steady-state activation indicate that the phase of oscillation varies from cell to cell. Co-expression of the β1 subunit with the α subunit channel suppressed the oscillation in the charge movement per single channel and free energy of steady-state inactivation, although the oscillation in the half steady-state inactivation potential remained unaltered. Incidentally, the frequencies of oscillation in the sodium channel parameters (4–8 Hz) correspond to the theta component of network oscillation. This fast pseudo-oscillatory mechanism, together with the slow pseudo-oscillatory mechanism found in these channels earlier, may contribute to the oscillations in the firing properties observed in various neuronal subtypes and many pathological conditions.     

The role of nitrogen in climate change and the impacts of nitrogen–climate interactions in the United States: foreword to thematic issue

Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to large and widespread increases in the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion, resulting in a leakage of N into the environment as various forms of air and water pollution. The global N cycle is more severely altered by human activity than the global carbon (C) cycle, and reactive N dynamics affect all aspects of climate change considerations, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. In this special issue of Biogeochemistry, we present a review of the climate–nitrogen interactions based on a technical report for the United States National Climate Assessment presented as individual papers for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture and human health within the US. We provide a brief overview of each of the paper’s main points and conclusions is presented in this foreword summary.     

Mediterranean island biodiversity and climate change: the last 10,000 years and the future

Mediterranean islands (MI) are hotspots of global biodiversity and lie in one of the most susceptible to climate change (CC) areas of the world; a big challenge for any conservation strategy. In fact, there is already increasing evidence for CC in the region and associated biological responses in MI ecosystems. These include phenological changes and upward elevation shifts of species and plant communities; although evidence is frequently contrasting for different taxa. Threats are also evident, mainly for endemic species from most taxonomic groups, while communities in mountain and coastal regions are likely to be affected most. For MI conservation under CC additional factors need to be considered: (i) their position at the crossroads of three continents; with which they share common environmental characteristics, (ii) their great variability in sizes and topography and (iii) their climatic differences; with a clear west-east basin divide. CC synergies with changing tourist aspiration and agricultural practices will, in the medium term, modify island landscapes and provide further challenges for biodiversity conservation. Such a combined impact from CC, land-use change, fragmentation of habitats and tourism is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the limited space on islands (especially habitat availability and climatic range limitations) imposes a barrier to species range expansion. Thus, conservation of MI biodiversity under CC requires: (i) future research to focus on improved climate predictions linked to improved understanding of ecological (climate-biotic) responses, incorporating lessons learnt from (island) biogeography, (ii) specific adaptation measures for spatial planning and improvement in regional institutional capacities.     

Determining the climate impact of food for use in a climate tax—design of a consistent and transparent model

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The aim of this study was to determine transparent food carbon footprint values for use in a climate tax, using a consistent methodology across...     

How climate change might influence the starvation–predation risk trade-off response

Climate change within the UK will affect winter starvation risk because higher temperatures reduce energy budgets and are likely to increase the quality of the foraging environment. Mass regulation in birds is a consequence of the starvation–predation risk trade-off: decreasing starvation risk because of climate change should decrease mass, but this will be countered by the effects of predation risk, because high predation risk has a negative effect on mass when foraging conditions are poor and a positive effect on mass when foraging conditions are good. We tested whether mass regulation in great tits (Parus major) across the UK was related to temporal changes in starvation risk (winter temperature 1995–2005) and spatial changes in predation risk (sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus abundance). As predicted, great tits carried less mass during later, warmer, winters, demonstrating that starvation risk overall has decreased. Also, the effects of predation risk interacted with the effects of temperature (as an index of foraging conditions), so that in colder winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to lower mass, whereas in warmer, later, winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to higher mass. Mass regulation in a small bird species may therefore provide an index of how environmental change is affecting the foraging environment.     

Can climate matching predict the current and future climatic suitability of the UK for the establishment of non-native birds?

Capsule: Current UK distributions of non-native birds poorly match areas identified as being climatically suitable.

Aims: Non-native species are spreading at unprecedented rates and though invasions are expected to increase under climate change, evidence for this is mixed. We assess climatic suitability throughout the UK based on the apparent match to the climate in species’ native ranges and investigate potential climatic limitation within the non-native range.

Methods: Climate was characterized within polygons representing the native ranges of 167 potentially invasive species. Parts of the UK with current and future climate similar to that in the native range were deemed climatically suitable. The incidence of recent observations inside and outside suitable areas was used to test hypotheses about climatic limitation of non-native ranges.

Results: Climate matching suggests that 69 of 167 non-native bird species could currently find climatically suitable areas for establishment in the UK. Future climate change would see this number increase by 14% by 2080. However, observed occurrences of non-native species in the UK were not significantly correlated to climatic suitability. Only 44 of the 69 species with suitable climate in the UK were present. Moreover, 85% of species observed in the UK had some UK occurrences in climatically unsuitable areas and for 57 species their entire UK range was in climatically unsuitable areas. Similar results were apparent for the subset of 12 species with established UK populations.

Conclusions: Climate matching provides a relatively poor indication of the extent of current and future suitable areas because species can adapt to new climates or other factors constrain the native range and many climatically suitable areas are currently unoccupied. Improvements to climate matching techniques and ongoing surveillance are required to refine predictions to support effective management policies.     

Predicting the wetland distributions under climate warming in the Great Xing’an Mountains,northeastern China

The wetland ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to hydrological and climate changes. The Great Xing’an Mountain is such a region in China that has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third-generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in The Great Xing’an Mountain will rise by 2–4°C over the next 100 years. This paper predicts the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate conditions. This predication was performed by the Random Forests model, with 18 environmental variables, which will reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model has been proven to have a great prediction ability. The wetland distributions are primarily topography-driven in the Great Xing’an Mountains. Mean annual temperature, warmness index, and potential evapotranspiration ratio are the most important climatic factors in wetland distributions. The model predictions for three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area tends to decrease, and higher emission will also cause more drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of the wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 62.47, 76.90, and 85.83%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B, and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. As for spatial allocation, wetlands may begin to disappear from the sides to the center and south to north under a warming climate. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the south hills with flatter terrain, and some may occur in the north hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severe vanish of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only a small area of wetlands may remain in the north of the high mountains.     

Quantifying the risk of mis-estimating correlation significance of climate–tree growth relationships

In dendroecology, sampling effort has a strong influence of both regional chronology properties and climate–tree growth relationships assessment. Recent studies evidenced that decreasing sample size leads to a weakening of the bootstrapped correlation coefficients ( ${\text{BCC}}$ BCC ). The present analysis focused on the risk of mis-estimating the significance of population ${\text{BCC}}\,\left( {{\text{BCC}}_{\text{POP}} } \right)$ BCC ( BCC POP ) from a sample of N trees, and then proposed an approach to detect and correct mis-estimations using the properties of the sample. The sample size effect and the limits of the correction were illustrated from 840 individual growth chronologies of Corsican pine (Pinus nigra Arnold ssp. laricio Poiret var. Corsicana) sampled in Western France. The 840 trees were used to assess the population characteristics, and the effect of sampling effort was investigated through a simulation approach based on a resampling procedure of N trees amongst 840 (N ? [5; 50]). Our results evidenced that the risk strongly varied amongst the climatic regressors. The highest risks were evidenced for significant ${\text{BCC}}_{\text{POP}}$ BCC POP , with a percentage of mis-estimation ranging from 25 to 80. On the contrary, small samples allowed providing an reliable estimation of the significance of non-significant ${\text{BCC}}_{\text{POP}}$ BCC POP . To a lesser extent, the risk slightly decreased with increasing N, according to a negative exponential trend. The detection and correction method was found relevant to detect mis-estimation only for significant ${\text{BCC}}_{\text{POP}}$ BCC POP ; otherwise, the ${\text{BCC}}_{\text{POP}}$ BCC POP significance was generally overestimated.     

Is global climate change influencing the overwintering distribution of weakfish Cynoscion regalis?

The pattern of stable isotope signatures in a sub-sample of 67 juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis, captured at the mouth of the Christina River, 113 km upstream of the mouth of Delaware Bay (U.S.A) in the autumn of 2000, suggested that they resided at the location since recruitment. The possibility that young C. regalis departed from the generally characteristic life-history pattern of marine migrants at this latitude, i.e . emigrating offshore with the adults in autumn was bolstered by the collection of 69 individuals during the winters of 2000–2006 from the travelling screens of a power plant located at river kilometre 88 including an 118 mm total length juvenile captured in mid-February 2006.     

Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants?

The northward and upward movement of the tree line and gradual replacement of lichens with vascular plants associated with increasing temperatures and nutrient availability may change the reindeer pastures in Northern Fennoscandia. The productivity of reindeer forage will most probably increase, but their protein (nitrogen) concentrations may decrease because of higher temperatures and CO₂ concentration. In the long term, the nutritive value of forage will depend on the mineralization rate and nutrient uptake from the soil. Enhanced UV-B is likely to increase the concentration of phenolics, decreasing forage quality and choice, but reindeer may adapt to increased phenolics. Increased winter precipitation, the occurrence of ice layers, deeper snow cover, and the appearance of molds beneath the snow cover may reduce the availability and/or quality of reindeer forage, but prolongation of snowless periods might have the opposite effect. The net balance of negative and positive effects will vary regionally depending on the climate, bedrock, vegetation, reindeer herding systems and socio-political factors. Multidisciplinary research is needed most importantly on the effects of the changing winter climate on reindeer forage, and the effect of modified forage quality on reindeer physiology.

Is the life cycle of high arctic aphids adapted to climate change?

The high arctic aphid Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum Heikinheimo is endemic to Svalbard and has developed a shortened life cycle to cope with harsh environmental conditions prevailing in this archipelago. Previous studies in the 1990s showed that contrarily to Sitobion calvulum, a species which is also restricted to Svalbard and displays a two-generation life cycle, A. svalbardicum can produce a third generation that, on average, should complete its development and reproduction once every 28 years. Because temperature has risen substantially in Svalbard during the past 10 –15 years and is predicted to rise further, budget requirements for this extra-generation should be met more and more frequently and the impact of the resulting demographic increase should be easily measurable in field populations of A. svalbardicum. Here, we tested this hypothesis by performing a series of experiments designed to study population dynamics and morph production of A. svalbardicum. Surprisingly, the three-generation life cycle was not detected either in field populations surveyed for two consecutive years or in controlled conditions where temperature was manipulated. Although we cannot reject the possibility that A. svalbardicum populations may develop a three-generation life cycle under certain circumstances, this strategy seems very rare and not adaptive as it would have been selected in the recent years of warming observed in Svalbard.     

How do climate change experiments alter plot‐scale climate?

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot‐scale climate data from 15 active‐warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non‐temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species’ responses.