The El Niño / Southern Oscillation and Australian vegetation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has a marked effect on Australia's rainfall. The tendency for major Australian droughts to coincide with ENSO “events” (i.e. anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the east equatorial Pacific), and for extensive wet periods to accompany “anti-ENSO” events, is well documented. Also well-known is the partial predictability of Australian rainfall anomalies provided by ENSO. Some other ENSO-related characteristics of interannual fluctuations of Australian rainfall are lesswidely recognised, viz:

- rainfall variability is very large

- droughts and wet periods have time scales of about one year

- they exhibit very large (continental) spatial scales

- they tend to be phase-locked with the annual cycle

- they are often followed/preceded by the opposite rainfall anomaly.

The character of Australian rainfall fluctuations is thus very different from that of areas where the influence of ENSO is weak, Europe for instance. Rainfall in some other areas, notably southern Africa and India and parts of the Americas, is also strongly affected by ENSO and shares some of the above characteristics. The relevance of these ENSO-related characteristics of Australian rainfall to its vegetation will be discussed. Australian native vegetation is adapted to these characteristics, especially in the semi-arid inland where ENSO's influence is strong. Most introduced plants are not adapted to ENSO and this has sometimes complicated their use here. The combination of ENSO-related rainfall fluctuations and European land-use strategies has resulted in some very rapid, unpredicted and undesirable changes in vegetation in the past two centuries. It has also increased the risk of soil erosion. Recognition of the real character of Australian rainfall fluctuations may help avoid further degradation of soil and vegetation.     

El Niño effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems

New studies are showing that the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has major implications for the functioning of different ecosystems, ranging from deserts to tropical rain forests. ENSO-induced pulses of enhanced plant productivity can cascade upward through the food web invoking unforeseen feedbacks, and can cause open dryland ecosystems to shift to permanent woodlands. These insights suggest that the predicted change in extreme climatic events resulting from global warming could profoundly alter biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Our increasing ability to predict El Ni?o effects can be used to enhance management strategies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems.     

El Niño,volcanism, and global climate

The June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines produced one of the greatest volcanic aerosols in the last hundred years. The estimated net decrease of radiation may have peaked at 10% in the tropics. What was the impact of the Pinatubo aerosol on regional and global climate? Besides the expected net cooling of the average global surface temperature, correlation studies indicate that other types of climate anomalies may also be expected. These include the appearance of an El Niño event, decreased Indian monsoon rainfall, fewer tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean in 1991–1993, and normal to above normal winter rainfall in California in 1991/92, all of which were observed. A proposed physical mechanism for the almost-simultaneous occurrence of this constellation of climate anomalies is presented. The results of correlation studies between low-latitude volcanic aerosols and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation are presented in some detail as one example. The correlation between Indian monsoon rainfall and tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean is also shown and is updated for the most recent 5 years.     

Drastic effects of El Niño on Galapagos pinnipeds

Summary Population dynamics of pinnipeds living in the tropical upwelling ecosystem of the Galapagos were strongly influenced by the 1982–83 Southern Oscillation-El Niño (EN) event which was the strongest recorded in this century. The Galapagos fur seal (Arctocephalus galapagoensis) population lost the four youngest year classes (1980–1983) almost entirely and approximately 30% of the adult females and non-territorial males. Mortality of large territorial males was almost 100%. Most of the 1982 year class of Galapagos sea lions (Zalophus californianus wollebaeki) died and there was a much lower pup production in the breeding season following EN. Recurrent EN events must strongly influence age structure and average population size of these and other otariid species depending on tropical upwelling ecosystems.     

The Seasonal Aggregation of Whale Sharks at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia: Currents, Migrations and the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation

Whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, seasonally aggregate in coastal waters off Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia. We review the oceanographic setting of the region and present evidence that such aggregations form as a result of migratory behavior associated with climatic and oceanographic processes. We utilise records of whale shark abundance collected at Ningaloo Reef from dedicated searches by boat and aircraft and from log sheets recorded by the tourism industry. Measures of whale shark abundance derived from log sheet data sets were moderately correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and weakly correlated with coastal sea level, an index of the strength of the Leeuwin Current, and sea surface temperature over the period 1993 to 1998. Abundances of whale sharks derived from boat searches from 1983 to 1992 were also correlated with fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index, except during a three year period from 1988 to 1990. We conclude that, at least in some years, there appears to be a link between the abundance of aggregating whale sharks and the physical and biological oceanography of the region, with greater whale shark numbers in La Niña years. The lack of correlation in other years may be due to a combination of uneven quality of data and/or aggregations occurring in response to a complex interaction between the physical and biological oceanography of the region.     

Early-season warning of soybean rust regional epidemics using El Niño Southern/Oscillation information

Soybean rust (SBR) is a disease of significant impact to Brazilian soybean production. Twenty-four locations in a major growing region in southern Brazil, where long-term (30 years) weather information was available, were selected to estimate the risk of SBR epidemics and identify potential predictors derived from El Niño 3.4 region. A rainfall-based model was used to predict SBR severity in an “epidemic development window” (the months of February and March for the studied region) in the time series. Twenty-eight daily simulations for each year-location (n = 720) were performed considering each day after 31 January as a hypothetical detection date (HDD) to estimate a severity index (SBRindex). The mean SBRindex in a single year was defined as the ‘growing season severity index’ (GSSI) for that year. A probabilistic risk assessment related GSSI and sea surface temperatures (SST) at the El Niño 3.4. region (here categorized as warm, cold or neutral phase) in October–November–December (OND) of the same growing season. Overall, the median GSSI across location-years was 34.5%. The risk of GSSI exceeding 60% was generally low and ranged from 0 to 20 percentage points, with the higher values found in the northern regions of the state when compared to the central-western. During a warm OND-SST phase, the probability of GSSI exceeding its overall mean (locations pooled) increased significantly by around 25 percentage points compared to neutral and cold SST phases, especially over the central western region. This study demonstrates the potential to use El Niño/Southern Oscillation information to anticipate the risk of SBR epidemics up to 1 month in advance at a regional scale.     

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on the Distribution of Wintering Raptors

Abstract We report the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the distribution and abundance of 3 raptor species at continental, regional, and landscape scales. We correlated values from the southern oscillation index (SOI), an index of ENSO phase and strength, with Christmas Bird Count data over a 30-year period. We investigated the relationship between the SOI and winter raptor distributions at 3 spatial scales: continental (central United States), regional (TX, USA), and landscape (3 roadside transects within TX). At the continental scale, ENSO events resulted in regional shifts for American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), and red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) winter abundances. As expected, these shifts were northward during El Niño (warm) winters, and southward for red-tailed hawks and northern harriers during La Niña (cold) winters. Within Texas, northern harrier distributions shifted towards arid west Texas during wet El Niño winters but were restricted to mesic coastal Texas during dry La Niña winters. Red-tailed hawk abundance increased in eastern Texas during La Niña winters responding to cooler than normal temperatures throughout the northern Midwest. Data from local roadside transects over a 3-year period encompassing 2 El Niño winters and one La Niña winter supported the abundance patterns revealed by continental and regional data, and added evidence that fluctuations in winter abundances result from demographic pulses as well as spatial shifts for wintering populations. This study underscores the need for long-term monitoring at both local and regional spatial scales in order to detect changes in continental populations. Short-term or local studies would have erroneously assumed local population declines or increases associated with ENSO events, rather than facultative movements or demographic pulses supported by this study.     

Spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall erosivity,erosivity density and correlation with El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Huaihe River Basin,China

Rainfall erosivity (RE) is the ability of rainfall to cause soil or regolith erosion. Understanding the spatial distribution and temporal trends of RE is critical for assessing soil erosion risk and improving upon soil conservation planning. The aim of this paper is to study the temporal and spatial changes in RE in the Huaihe River Basin, China. This will be based on daily precipitation data from 67 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin for the period 1971 to 2016. The assessment of the resulting RE values involved inverse distance-weighted (IDW) interpolation, Sen's slope estimation, and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. In addition, the possible influence of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on RE in the Huaihe River Basin will be examined by the use of Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC), where the relationship between RE and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) are analyzed. The results showed that the spatial distribution of RE is characterized by it increasing from west to east and north to south. In most areas, the annual RE has increased slightly, while this upward trend in the southeastern part of the study area was more significant. The rainfall erosivity of rainstorms (RE-SM) in the Huaihe River Basin played a leading role in the annual RE, and 97% of the stations displayed the order of importance of the different categories of rainfall as rainfall erosivity of rainstorms (RE-SM) > rainfall erosivity of heavy rain (RE-HR) > rainfall erosivity of moderate rain (RE-MR). Over monthly time scales, the RE was the highest in July, while it was lowest in December, with the monthly differences being apparent. The RE in the Huaihe River Basin were relatively large during non-El Niño/La Niña periods and relatively small during El Niño/La Niña periods. Finally, correlations between RE and the MEI in various parts of the basin showed different characteristics over time and space, with both displaying similarities and differences.     

Positive effects of “El Niño” on macrozoobenthos inhabiting hypoxic areas of the Peruvian upwelling system

Summary Soft-bottom macrozoobenthos was sampled at monthly intervals between September 1981 and September 1984 at a normally hypoxic site (34 m depth) in Ancón Bay (Peru). Temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were measured and related to changes in community structure. Large increases in the number of species, density, biomass, and diversity of macrozoobenthos were observed during the 1982–1983 El Niño (EN) thermal anomaly and for 1 year afterwards. These favourable changes were mainly associated with increased oxygen concentrations found in water masses near the bottom. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that the processes of post-catastrophic recovery of macrozoobenthos on marine soft bottoms are largely predictable, although certain particular mechanisms seem to exist for post-hypoxic recovery during El Niño in areas of the Peruvian coastal upwelling.Contribution No. 55 of the Peruvian-German Cooperative Fisheries Project (PROCOPA-Callao) and No. 63 of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI-Bremerhaven)     

Changes in the Cellular and Organismal Stress Responses of the Subtropical Fish, the Indo-Pacific Sergeant, Abudefduf vaigiensis, due to the 1997–1998 El Niño/Southern Oscillation

There are accumulating reports showing that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant effect on the population dynamics of marine fishes. However, the influence of ENSO on the physiology of fishes, as possible components of those ecological changes in fish populations, is not fully understood. This study investigated the cellular, physiological, and organismal stress responses in a wild fish population under natural thermal stress. The sea surface temperature at the subtropical ocean of Okinawa, Japan, was the highest in the last 10 years (>32°C) during the summer of 1998 with a strong ENSO. To examine the effects of those unusually warm ocean temperatures on fish, we compared tissue 70-kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) levels and growth rates between the ENSO summer of 1998 and the normal summer of 1999 in a common fish species in Okinawa, the Indo-Pacific sergeant, Abudefduf vaigiensis. We also conducted a complementary heat shock experiment in the laboratory. The field collected Indo-Pacific sergeant had significantly higher muscle HSP70 levels in 1998 than 1999. Higher muscle HSP70 and plasma cortisol levels were observed at 32°C than at 28°C in the laboratory heat shock experiment, indicating that the highest summer ocean temperature in 1998 was sufficient for the fish to up-regulate the cellular and physiological stress responses. In support of this effect, otoliths showed slower growth rates of the fish during the summer of 1998; this may reflect the significant energetic cost of these stress responses.     

Parallel responses of species and genetic diversity to El Niño Southern Oscillation-induced environmental destruction

Species diversity within communities and genetic diversity within species are two fundamental levels of biodiversity. Positive relationships between species richness and within-species genetic diversity have recently been documented across natural and semi-natural habitat islands, leading Vellend to suggest a novel macro-ecological pattern termed the species-genetic diversity correlation. We tested whether this prediction holds for areas affected by recent habitat disturbance using butterfly communities in east Kalimantan, Indonesia. Here, we show that both strong spatial and temporal correlations exist between species and allelic richness across rainforest habitats affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation-induced disturbance. Coupled with evidence that changes in species richness are a direct result of local extirpation and lower recruitment, these data suggest that forces governing variation at the two levels operate over parallel and short timescales, with implications for biodiversity recovery following disturbance. Remnant communities may be doubly affected, with reductions in species richness being associated with reductions in genetic diversity within remnant species.     

Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand

BackgroundSeveral factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world''s most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.ConclusionThe underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.     

Climate variation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on the Great Barrier Reef: 1958 to 1987

Seasonal and inter-annual variation of several surface climate variables near the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are described for the 30-year period, 1958–1987. Large inter-annual variability of rainfall and river flow in coastal Queensland is linked to the aperiodic influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. These events also affect sea surface temperature and wind fields, though the inter-annual variability of these variables is not as large as rainfall and river flow. The major impacts on waters of the GBR appear to be greatly increased freshwater inputs, reduced surface radiation (and thus light levels) and enhanced tropical cyclone activity during anti-El Niño events. El Niño events have less effect on climate of the GBR because they tend to maintain winter-like conditions. The effects of this background of high variability in the physical environment on reef processes must be considered when examining changes in such processes, changes in climate (e.g. due to global warming) or increases in anthropogenic impacts.     

Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia

We collated an environmental history for a 8580 km² study area in the Simpson Desert, Australia. Quantitative and qualitative data on climate, land-use, fire history and ecosystem dynamics were used to construct a chronology of processes threatening terrestrial mammal species. Over the last 150 years there has been the transition in land tenure from a hunter–gatherer economy to pastoralism, the loss of 11 mammal species, the cessation of small scale burning by Aboriginal people and the introduction of the fox and cat. Annual rainfall was highly variable and was influenced by the phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Irruptions of rodents, marked increases in the populations of native and introduced predators and extensive wildfires were associated with the La Niña phase of ENSO and occurred when rain-year (July–June) rainfall approached or exceeded the 90th percentile of the historical rainfall distribution. Large rainfall events in arid Australia have been viewed traditionally as the ‘boom’ times that benefit wildlife and pastoral production. However, because of hyper-predation and the risk of wildfire, we show that the years including and immediately following flooding rains should be identified as critical, or ‘bust’ periods for wildlife and conservation management. ENSO related climatic forecasts appear to be useful cues which can be incorporated into fire and predator management strategies in arid Australia. Studies such as this, which utilise a broad range of data types across extensive areas, can identify the timing and potential of threatening process not possible using contemporary studies alone.     

Repercussions of El Niño: drought causes extinction and the breakdown of mutualism in Borneo

Figs (Ficus spp.) and their species-specific pollinators, the fig wasps (Agaonidae), have coevolved one of the most intricate interactions found in nature, in which the fig wasps, in return for pollination services, raise their offspring in the fig inflorescence. Fig wasps, however, have very short adult lives and hence are dependent on the near-continuous production of inflorescences to maintain their populations. From January to March 1998 northern Borneo suffered a very severe drought linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation event of 1997-1998. This caused a substantial break in the production of inflorescences on dioecious figs and led to the local extinction of their pollinators at Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia. Most pollinators had not recolonized six months after the drought and, given the high level of endemism and wide extent of the drought, some species may be totally extinct. Cascading effects on vertebrate seed dispersers, for which figs are often regarded as keystone resources, and the tree species dependent on their services are also likely. This has considerable implications for the maintenance of biodiversity under a scenario of climate change and greater climatic extremes.     

Drought and the consequences of El Niño in Borneo: a case study of figs

Borneo has a perhumid climate but occasional severe droughts have an important impact. Droughts may affect the composition and size structure of plant communities through differential mortality or, via their impact on the availability of plant resources, affect plant–animal interactions. From January to April 1998, northern Borneo suffered a very severe drought linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation event of 1997–1998. In this article, the impacts of this drought on the rain forest at Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, are considered with special reference to a keystone plant group, the figs. Small fires entered the edge of the forest from the roadside, killing saplings, climbers, and understory trees. Community-wide mortality for adult trees was 0–7 times higher than in nondrought years, with larger trees showing a greater proportional increase. In figs, mortality was significantly higher in pioneers, but hemiepiphytes and roadside species were unaffected. Phenology was substantially affected. Leaf and flower/fruit production decreased or ceased during the drought and increased suddenly following renewed rain. Pollinators of dioecious figs became locally extinct during the drought, and other plant–animal interactions may also have been disrupted. The frequency and severity of droughts has increased substantially in the past three decades, and climate models suggest this may be the result of global warming. The impacts of the 1998 drought at Lambir Hills National Park suggest that, should this trend continue, a substantial alteration of habitats and overall loss of biodiversity can be expected in Borneo.