Climate or diet? The importance of biotic interactions in determining species range size

Aim

Species geographical range sizes play a crucial role in determining species vulnerability to extinction. Although several mechanisms affect range sizes, the number of biotic interactions and species climatic tolerance are often thought to play discernible roles, defining two dimensions of the Hutchinsonian niche. Yet, the relative importance of the trophic and the climatic niche for determining species range sizes is largely unknown.

Location

Central and northern Europe.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Gall-inducing sawflies and their parasitoids.

Methods

We use data documenting the spatial distributions and biotic interactions of 96 herbivore species, and their 125 parasitoids, across Europe and analyse the relationship between species range size and the climatic and trophic dimensions of the niche. We then compare the observed relationships with null expectations based on species occupancy to understand whether the relationships observed are an inevitable consequence of species range size or if they contain information about the importance of each dimension of the niche on species range size.

Results

We find that both niche dimensions are positively correlated with species range size, with larger ranges being associated with wider climatic tolerances and larger numbers of interactions. However, diet breadth appears to more strongly limit species range size. Species with larger ranges have more interactions locally and they are also able to interact with a larger diversity of species across sites (i.e. higher β-diversity), resulting in a larger number of interactions at continental scales.

Main conclusions

We show for the first time how different aspects of species diet niches are related to their range size. Our study offers new insight into the importance of biotic interactions in determining species spatial distributions, which is critical for improving understanding and predictions of species vulnerability to extinction under the current rates of global environmental change.     

Of niches and distributions: range size increases with niche breadth both globally and regionally but regional estimates poorly relate to global estimates

The relationship between species’ niche breadth (i.e. the range of environmental conditions under which a species can persist) and range size (i.e. the extent of its spatial distribution) has mostly been tested within geographically restricted areas but rarely at the global extent. Here, we not only tested the relationship between range size (derived from species’ distribution data) and niche breadth (derived from species’ distribution and co‐occurrence data) of 1255 plant species at the regional extent of the European Alps, but also at the global extent and across both spatial scales for a subset of 180 species. Using correlation analyses, linear models and variation partitioning, we found that species’ realized niche breadth estimated at the regional level is a weak predictor of species’ global niche breadth and range size. Against our expectations, distribution‐derived niche breadth was a better predictor for species’ range size than the co‐occurrence‐based estimate, which should, theoretically, account for more than the climatically determined niche dimensions. Our findings highlight that studies focusing on the niche breadth vs range size relationship must explicitly consider spatial mismatches that might have confounded and diminished previously reported relationships.     

The biogeography of plant reproduction: potential determinants of species' range sizes

Aim A major biogeographical hypothesis, the ‘niche‐breadth’ hypothesis, explains species range sizes based on the extent of a species’ niche (e.g. diversity of habitats occupied; range of environmental conditions tolerated). An alternative hypothesis explains range sizes using metapopulation theory (e.g. colonization dynamics; dispersal ability). Both niche breadth and colonization ability may be related to plant species’ reproductive characteristics. We evaluate both hypotheses by examining the relationship of plant range size to mating system and genomic structure (ploidy status). Location Western North America. Methods Using a data set of 60 taxa in the genus Clarkia (Onagraceae), we use three analytical techniques to examine the effect of reproductive characteristics on range size. We conduct cross‐species analyses of present‐day taxa to examine both mating system and polyploidy in relation to range size. We also conduct a phylogenetically independent contrasts analysis (using caic software) on the relationship of mating system to range size in diploid species. Third, we compare closely related taxon pairs that differ in mating system as an alternative method to control for phylogeny. Results Polyploid species have significantly larger ranges compared with diploid species. When considering only diploid taxa, no significant relationship is found for mating system in both cross‐species and phylogenetically independent contrasts analyses. The diploid pairwise analysis, comparing only the range sizes of direct sister taxa with alternative mating systems, does show a relationship, with outcrossing species having larger ranges than self‐fertilizing species. Main conclusions We argue that genetic diversity, colonization ability, or a combination of both factors may influence plant species’ range sizes. The significant pairwise analysis suggests that both the independent contrast and the cross‐species analysis may be confounded by polytomies of species at the terminal nodes of the phylogeny, indicating the importance of comparing the results of multiple analytical techniques. We propose that the range sizes of self‐fertilizing species have a bimodal distribution, obscuring the effect of mating system on range size, and that a broader survey of plant taxa will resolve the two modes from that of the outcrossing species. Lastly, polyploid species appear to show significantly larger range sizes than diploid species, irrespective of mating system.     

Microhabitat analyses support relationships between niche breadth and range size when spatial autocorrelation is strong

Multiple evidence of positive relationships between nice breadth and range size (NB–RS) suggested that this can be a general ecological pattern. However, correlations between niche breadth and range size can emerge as a by-product of strong spatial structure of environmental variables. This can be problematic because niche breadth is often assessed using broad-scale macroclimatic variables, which suffer heavy spatial autocorrelation. Microhabitat measurements provide accurate information on species tolerance, and show limited autocorrelation. The aim of this study was to combine macroclimate and microhabitat data to assess NB–RS relationships in European plethodontid salamanders (Hydromantes), and to test whether microhabitat variables with weak autocorrelation can provide less biased NB–RS estimates across species. To measure macroclimatic niche, we gathered comprehensive information on the distribution of all Hydromantes species, and combined them with broad-scale climatic layers. To measure microhabitat, we recorded salamander occurrence across > 350 caves and measured microhabitat features influencing their distribution: humidity, temperature and light. We assessed NB–RS relationships through phylogenetic regression; spatial null-models were used to test whether the observed relationships are a by-product of autocorrelation. We observed positive relationships between niche breadth and range size at both the macro- and microhabitat scale. At the macroclimatic scale, strong autocorrelation heavily inflated the possibility to observe positive NB–RS. Spatial autocorrelation was weaker for microhabitat variables. At the microhabitat level, the observed NB–RS was not a by-product of spatial structure of variables. Our study shows that heavy autocorrelation of variables artificially increases the possibility to detect positive relationships between bioclimatic niche and range size, while fine-scale data of microhabitat provide more direct measure of conditions selected by ectotherms, and enable less biased measures of niche breadth. Combining analyses performed at multiple scales and datasets with different spatial structure provides more complete niche information and effectively tests the generality of niche breadth–range size relationships.     

Integrating phylogeny,environment and space to explore variation in macroecological traits of Viperidae and Elapidae (Squamata: Serpentes)

We used eigenvector mapping in space and phylogeny to investigate the relationships among space, phylogeny and environment on body size and range size variation across two groups of venomous snakes – Viperidae and Elapidae – from the New World. Data on species geographic range sizes, maximum body sizes and phylogenetic relationships were compiled from the available literature. The distributional data were also used to calculate the latitudinal and longitudinal midpoint and the environmental centroids for each species. The eigenvectors extracted from the pair wise spatial and phylogenetic distance matrices were integrated with environmental variables into a method of variation partitioning where the variation in each trait was quantitatively attributed to ‘pure’ and/or shared effects of phylogeny, environment and space. Our results showed that variation in body size was predominantly determined by phylogeny in both groups of snakes. For Viperidae, we found that pure ‘effects’ of phylogeny were the strongest, indicating that most of the body size evolution that was phylogenetically determined in this group occurred independently of environment and geographical proximity. Regarding range sizes, pure phylogenetic influences were very low in both groups, whereas the largest single fraction of explained variation corresponded to overlapped influences of the three sets of predictors, especially for Elapidae. Along with this, we found evidence that niche conservatism is an important processes underlying variation in body size and range size in both groups of snakes.     

Determinants of local abundance and range size in forest vascular plants

Aim For a large set of forest herbs we tested: (1) whether there is a positive relationship between local abundance and geographical range size; (2) whether abundance or range size are affected by the niche breadths of species or niche availability; and (3) whether these are affected by the species life‐history traits. Location Northwestern Germany. Methods We measured abundance as mean density in 22 base‐rich deciduous forests and recorded range size as area of occupancy on four different spatial scales (local to national). Niche breadth was expressed in terms of habitat specificity (specialists, generalists) and of the ability to grow across a broad range of soil pH. The species’ pH niche position was used as a measure of the importance of habitat availability. As life‐history traits we used diaspore mass and number, plant height, seed longevity, lifespan/clonality, pollination mode, dispersal capability and flowering time. Results There were mainly no positive relationships between the abundance of species and their range size, as tested across species and across phylogenetically independent contrasts. Forest specialists were generally distributed less widely than generalists, but habitat specificity was not related to local abundance. Species with a broader pH niche breadth were more common, but the positive relationships between niche breadth and abundance or range size disappeared when accounting for sample size effects. Clonal species with few and heavy diaspores were most abundant, as well as early‐flowering species and those lacking dispersal structures. Local and regional range size were determined largely by habitat availability, while national range was positively affected by plant height and diaspore mass. Main conclusions Different processes determine the local density of species and their range size. Abundance within habitat patches appears to be related mainly to the species life histories, especially to their capacity for extensive clonal reproduction, whereas range size appears to be determined strongly by the availability of suitable habitat.     

Regional occupancy in unicellular eukaryotes: a reflection of niche breadth,habitat availability or size‐related dispersal capacity?

1. The distribution patterns of unicellular and multicellular organisms have recently been shown to differ profoundly, with the former probably being mostly cosmopolitan, whereas the latter are mostly restricted to certain regions. However, the within‐region distribution patterns of these two organism groups may be rather similar. 2. We predicted that the degree of regional occupancy in unicellular eukaryotes would be related to niche characteristics, dispersal ability and size, as has been found previously for multicellular organisms. The niche characteristics we considered were niche position, that measures marginality in species habitat distribution, and niche breadth, that measures amplitude in species habitat distribution. Niche characteristics were determined using Outlying Mean Index (OMI) analysis. 3. We found that the regional occupancy in our model group of unicellular eukaryotes, stream diatoms, was primarily a reflection of the niche position of a species or, more generally, habitat availability. Thus, non‐marginal species (i.e. species that occupied common habitat conditions across the region) tended to be more widely distributed than marginal species (i.e. species that were restricted to a limited range of rare habitat conditions). This finding was further supported by the general linear model, with niche position, niche breadth, maximum size and attachment mode as explanatory variables: niche position was by far the most important variable accounting for variability in regional occupancy, with significant amounts of additional variation related to niche breadth and maximum size of diatoms. 4. Thus, the degree of regional occupancy among unicellular eukaryotes may be primarily governed by habitat availability, supporting former findings for multicellular organisms.     

A global analysis of the determinants of alien geographical range size in birds

Aim Determining the causes of range size variation in the distributions of alien species is important for understanding the spread of invasive species. Factors influencing alien range size have been explored for some species at a regional level, but to date there has been no global analysis of an entire class. Here, we present such an analysis for birds, testing for the effects of introduction event, location and species‐level variables on alien range sizes. Location Global. Methods We used a novel dataset on the global distributions of alien bird species to test for relationships between alien range size and colonization pressure, residence time, extent of the global climatic niche, native range size, body mass and specialization, using a statistical approach based on phylogenetic generalized least squares models. We performed this analysis globally, and for separate biogeographical realms. Results Approximately half of the variation in alien bird range size is explained by colonization pressure in univariate analysis. We identified consistent effects of higher colonization pressure at global and realm levels, as well as support for effects of native range size and residence time. We found less support for effects of body mass, specialization or extent of the global climatic niche on alien range size. Main conclusions Alien bird range sizes are generally small relative to their native range sizes, and many are continuing to expand. Nevertheless, current variation is predictable, most strongly by the event‐level factor of colonization pressure. Whether a species is widespread is a better predictor of alien range size than whether a species could be widespread (estimated by global climatic niche extent), while we also find effects of residence time on alien range size. These relationships may help to identify those alien species that are more likely to spread and hence have greater environmental and economic impacts where they have been introduced.     

Species richness, species range size and ecological specialisation among African primates: geographical patterns and conservation implications

The geographical distribution of species richness and species range size of African anthropoid primates (catarrhines) is investigated and related to patterns of habitat and dietary niche breadth. Catarrhine species richness is concentrated in the equatorial regions of central and west Africa; areas that are also characterised by low average species range sizes and increased ecological specificity. Species richness declines with increasing latitude north and south of the equator, while average species range size, habitat and dietary breadth increase. Relationships between species richness, species range size and niche breadth remain once latitudinal and longitudinal effects have been removed. Among areas of lowest species richness, however, there is increased variation in terms of average species range size and niche breadth, and two trends are identified. While most such areas are occupied by a few wide-ranging generalists, others are occupied by range-restricted specialist species. That conservation efforts increasingly focus on regions of high species richness may be appropriate if these regions are also characterised by species that are more restricted in both their range size and their ecological versatility, although special consideration may be required for some areas of low species richness.     

Complex relationships between species niches and environmental heterogeneity affect species co-occurrence patterns in modelled and real communities

Species co-occurrence analysis is commonly used to assess how interspecific interactions dictate community assembly. Non-random co-occurrences, however, may also emerge from niche differences as well as environmental heterogeneity. The relationships between species co-occurrence patterns, environmental heterogeneity and species niches are not fully understood, due to complex interactions among them. To analyse the relationships among these patterns and processes, I developed synthetic community models and analysed a large dataset of tree species across the conterminous United States. Niche overlap and environmental heterogeneity had significant and contrasting effects on species co-occurrence patterns, in both modelled and real communities. Niche breadth, in turn, affected the effect sizes of both variables on species co-occurrence patterns. The effect of niche breadth on the relationship between co-occurrence and niche overlap was markedly consistent between modelled and real communities, while its effect on the relationship between co-occurrence and environmental heterogeneity was mostly consistent between real and modelled data. The results of this analysis highlight the complex and interactive effects of species niche overlap, niche breadth and environmental heterogeneity on species co-occurrence patterns. Therefore, inferring ecological processes from co-occurrence patterns without accounting for these fundamental characteristics of species and environments may lead to biased conclusions.     

Geographical range size heritability: what do neutral models with different modes of speciation predict?

Aim Phylogenetic conservatism or heritability of the geographical range sizes of species (i.e. the tendency for closely related species to share similar range sizes) has been predicted to occur because of the strong phylogenetic conservatism of niche traits. However, the extent of such heritability in range size is disputed and the role of biology in shaping this attribute remains unclear. Here, we investigate the level of heritability of geographical range sizes that is generated from neutral models assuming no biological differences between species. Methods We used three different neutral models, which differ in their speciation mode, to simulate the life‐history of 250,000 individuals in a square lattice of 50 × 50 cells. These individuals can speciate, reproduce, migrate and die in the metacommunity according to stochastic events. We ran each model for 3000 steps and recorded the range size of each species at each step. The heritability of geographical range size was assessed using an asymmetry coefficient between range sizes of sister species and using the coefficient of correlation between the range sizes of ancestors and their descendants. Results Our results demonstrated the ability of neutral models to mimic some important observed patterns in the heritability of geographical range size. Consistently, sister species exhibited higher asymmetry in range sizes than expected by chance, and correlations between the range sizes of ancestor–descendant species pairs, although often weak, were almost invariably positive. Main conclusions Our findings suggest that, even without any biological trait differences, statistically significant heritability in the geographical range sizes of species can be found. This heritability is weaker than that observed in some empirical studies, but suggests that even here a substantial component of heritability may not necessarily be associated with niche conservatism. We also conclude that both present‐day and fossil data sets may provide similar information on the heritability of the geographical range sizes of species, while the omission of rare species will tend to overestimate this heritability.     

Insect occurrence in agricultural land-uses depends on realized niche and geographic range properties

Geographic range size predicts species’ responses to land-use change and intensification, but the reason why is not well established because many correlates of larger geographic ranges, such as realized niche breadth, may mediate species’ responses to environmental change. Agricultural land uses (hereafter ‘agroecosystems’) have warm, dry and more variable microclimates than do cooler and wetter mature forests, so are predicted to filter for species that have warmer, drier and broader fundamental and realized niches. To test these predictions, we estimated species’ realized niches, for temperature and precipitation, and geographic range sizes of 764 insect species by matching GBIF occurrence records to global climate layers, and modelled how species presence/absence in mature forest and nearby agroecosystems depend on species’ realized niches or geographic ranges. The predicted species niche effects consistently matched the expected direction of microclimatic transition from mature forest to agroecosystems. We found a clear signal that species with preference for warmer and drier climates were more likely to be present in agroecosystems. In addition, the probability that species occurred in different land-use types was predicted better by species’ realized niche than their geographic range size. However, niche effects are often context-dependent and varied amongst studies, taxonomic groups and regions used in this analysis: predicting which particular aspects of species’ realized niche cause sensitivity to land-use change, and the underpinning mechanisms, remains a major challenge for future research and multiple components of species’ realized niches may be important to consider. Using realized niches derived from open-source occurrence records can be a simple and widely applicable tool to help identify when biodiversity responds to the microclimate component of land-use change.     

Niche properties of Central European spiders: shading, moisture and the evolution of the habitat niche

Aim  Niche theory emphasizes the importance of environmental conditions for the distribution and abundance of species. Using a macroecological approach our study aimed at identifying the important environmental gradients for spiders. We generated numerical values of niche position and niche width. We also investigated relationships between these niche properties as well as the degree of phylogenetic conservatism in order to draw conclusions about the evolution of the habitat niche.
Location  Central Europe: lowlands of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland.
Methods  We analysed 244 published spider communities from 70 habitat types by correspondence analysis. The resulting community scores were used to test for correlations with habitat characteristics. Species scores were used to derive niche position (mean scores) and niche width (standard deviation of scores). To test for niche conservatism we estimated variance components across the taxonomic hierarchy.
Results  The first two axes of the correspondence analysis were correlated with shading and moisture, respectively. Niche width had a hump-shaped relationship to both environmental gradients. β-diversity was strikingly higher in open habitats than in forests. Habitat niche conservatism was lower than phylogenetic conservatism in body size.
Main conclusions  Environmental factors are important drivers for the β-diversity of spiders, especially across open habitats. This underlines the importance of preserving the whole range of moisture conditions in open habitats. Narrow niches of species occurring at the ends of both environmental gradients indicate that adaptations to extreme habitats lead to constraints in ecological flexibility. Nevertheless, the habitat niche of species seems to evolve much faster than morphological or physiological traits.     

The relationships between abundance, range size and niche breadth in Central European tree species

Aim  Range size and niche breadth have been found to be positively related to abundance in many plant and animal groups. We tested these two relationships for the tree species flora of Central Europe; that is, for all 25 species that have their distribution centre in this region.
Location  Eurasia, with a focus on Central Europe.
Methods  We devised an abundance and niche variable classification system to transform the existing literature data into a semi-quantitative assessment of abundance and niche breadth (in terms of soil chemical and physical variables, and temperature) for each of the 25 tree species. Regression analyses between abundance, range size and niche breadth were conducted for the entire species sample and for subsets of species defined by their ecology or phylogeny.
Results  The relationship between abundance in the distribution centre and range size was weak for the Central European tree species. However, significant abundance–range size relationships were found for phylogenetically or ecologically more homogenous species groups (for example for trees of the order Rosales and for mid-successional tree species). Realized niche breadth was positively related to range size in the case of temperature, but not for soil-related variables. No relationship existed between niche breadth and abundance in the distribution centre.
Main conclusions  We hypothesize that the weak relationship between abundance and range size is primarily a consequence of substantial ecological and phylogenetic heterogeneity within this rather species-poor assemblage. The positive relationship between realized temperature niche breadth and range size emphasizes the strong influence of climatic variables on plant distribution patterns over continental or global scales.     

Interspecific abundance-range size relationships: range position and phylogeny

A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the widely observed positive interspecific relationship between local abundance and extent of geographic distribution in animals Here, we use data on British birds to assess two of these hypotheses that the relationship results from the relative position of a study area with respect to the geographic ranges of the species which occur there, and that the relationship results from a simple difference between taxonomic groups, rather than any general tendency for more abundant species to have larger range sizes We find support for neither hypothesis Phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses reveal that the positive abundance-range size relationship is consistently found within taxa, even when abundance and range size are calculated at a variety of spatial and temporal scales Analyses both across species and within taxa show that bird species for which Britain is near to the centre of their distribution in Europe tend to have larger British range sizes and higher abundances than do species where Britain is close to the edge of their range in Europe However, these relationships do not cause that between abundance and range size, because this latter relationship persists within different range position categories Whether a species is near the centre or edge of its geographic range in Britain may affect its position on the abundance-range size relationship, but does not produce the relationship Range position in Britain does, however, seem to be related to the magnitude of temporal changes in the range sizes of British birds There is some evidence to suggest that species for which Britain is nearer to their European range centre have shown smaller changes in distribution over the period 1970–1990 than have species for which Britain is close to their European range edge     

洲际入侵植物生态位稳定性研究进展

人类活动引起的大规模洲际物种交换与生物入侵, 改变了当地生态系统结构与功能, 使生物多样性受到日益严重的威胁。本文通过综合分析主要国家和地区入侵植物的地理起源, 发现洲际入侵主要包括东亚—北美、东亚—南美、欧洲—南非、欧洲—北美、欧洲—东亚、北美—大洋洲等, 这些洲际入侵造成的后果往往比陆内入侵更为严重。利用物种分布模型(SDMs)预测入侵物种潜在分布范围是有效管理和提早预防生物入侵的重要依据, 但这些模型的一个关键假定是: 入侵物种的生态位在空间和时间上是保守的、稳定的。然而, 对于远离原产地种群并能快速适应新生境的洲际入侵植物来说, 生态位可能发生显著的变化。入侵种能否在入侵地保持原有的生态位, 取决于制约其生态分布的限制因素和生态过程在不同地区间是否发生变化。本文中作者总结了洲际入侵与陆内入侵的生态与进化过程的异同点, 认为这些限制物种原产地分布的因素如扩散限制、种间互作、适应性进化、生态可塑性和种群遗传特性等均可能导致入侵物种生态位的改变。建议下一步的研究应该重视: (1)对生态位属性进行多尺度的研究, 包括时间、空间、环境或系统发育等几个方面; (2)对比生态位稳定与发生偏移的物种特性, 确定什么样的入侵物种更容易改变原有的生态位; (3)进行生态位时间动态格局研究, 探讨生态位变化的倾向、历史速率和偏移程度, 以便判定生态位变化趋势。这些研究结果将会进一步提高物种分布模型的预测能力, 有助于更为准确地揭示气候变化和物种入侵对生物多样性的影响。     

Explanations of commonness and rarity in British breeding birds: separating resource use and resource availability

Two of the most prominent explanations for a positive interspecific relationship between local abundance and regional distribution are the resource breadth and the resource availability hypotheses. Here we test these hypotheses by characterising habitat use of British breeding birds using extensive census and environmental data. A group of 85 bird species was considered for study along with 34 land use or environmental variables, which were used to generate four ordination axes by Canonical Correspondence Analysis. Measures of niche breadth and position were derived from these synthetic environmental axes using standard procedures. Across species, none of five measures of abundance and distribution chosen were correlated with niche breadth, whereas four out of five of these measures were correlated negatively with niche position. Repeating the analyses using a method designed to control for phylogenetic non-independence confirmed these general patterns. Birds that tended to use resources that were more atypical of the environment tended to be rarer and thinly distributed, while those using typical resources were common and widely distributed. Performing the analyses on subsets of the data based on species sample sizes did not alter the conclusions. On the assumption that our analyses properly capture patterns of niche use by birds, we find little support for the resource breadth hypothesis, but considerable support for the resource availability hypothesis.     

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.     

Northwestward range expansion of the bumblebee Bombus haematurus into Central Europe is associated with warmer winters and niche conservatism

Species range expansions are crucial for understanding niche formation and the interaction with the environment. Here, we studied the bumblebee Bombus haematurus Kriechbaumer, 1870, a species historically distributed from northern Serbia through northern Iran which has very recently started expanding northwestward into Central Europe without human-mediated dispersal (i.e., it is a natural spread). After updating the global distribution of this species, we investigated if niche shifts took place during this range expansion between newly colonized and historical areas. In addition, we have explored which climatic factors may have favored the natural range expansion of the species. Our results indicated that Bombus haematurus has colonized large territories in 7 European countries outside the historical area in the period from the 1980s to 2018, a natural expansion over an area that equals 20% of the historical distribution. In addition, this bumblebee performs generalism in flower visitation and it occurs in different habitats, although a preference for forested areas clearly emerges. The land-use associated with the species in the colonized areas is similar to the historical distribution, indicating that no major niche shifts occurred during the spread. Furthermore, in recently colonized localities, the range expansion was associated with warming temperatures during the winter and also during both queen overwintering and emergence phases. These findings document a case of natural range expansion due to environmental change rather than due to niche shifts, and specifically they suggest that warmer winters could be linked to the process of natural colonization of new areas.