Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

In Italy, during the course of the past century to the present-day, measles incidence underwent a remarkable decreasing trend that started well before the introduction of the national immunization programme. In this work, we aim at examining to what extent both the demographic transition, characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates over time, and the vaccination programme are responsible for the observed epidemiological pattern. Making use of a non-stationary, age-structured disease transmission model, we show that in the pre-vaccination era, from 1901 to 1982, the decline in birth rates has resulted in a drastic decrease in the effective transmission rate, which in turn has determined a declining trend of measles incidence (from 25.2 to 10.3 infections per 1000 individuals). However, since 1983, vaccination appears to have become the major contributing factor in the decrease of measles incidence, which otherwise would have remained stable as a consequence of the nearly constant birth rates. This led to a remarkable decrease in the effective transmission rate, to a level well below the critical threshold for disease persistence. These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes.     

How mathematical epidemiology became a field of biology: a commentary on Anderson and May (1981) ‘The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts’

We discuss the context, content and importance of the paper ‘The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts’, by R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society as a stand-alone issue in 1981. We do this from the broader perspective of the study of infectious disease dynamics, rather than the specific perspective of the dynamics of insect pathogens. We argue that their 1981 paper fits seamlessly in the systematic study of infectious disease dynamics that was initiated by the authors in 1978, combining effective use of simple mathematical models, firmly rooted in biology, with observable or empirically measurable ingredients and quantities, and promoting extensive capacity building. This systematic approach, taking ecology and biology rather than applied mathematics as the motivation for advance, proved essential for the maturation of the field, and culminated in their landmark textbook of 1991. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.     

Growth rate effects on fundamental transport properties of bacterial populations

In many natural environments, bacterial populations experience suboptimal growth due to the competition with other microorganisms for limited resources. The chemotactic response provides a mechanism by which bacterial populations can improve their situation by migrating toward more favorable growth conditions. For bacteria cultured under suboptimal growth conditions, evidence for an enhanced chemotactic response has been observed previously. In this article, for the first time, we have quantitatively characterized this behavior in terms of two macroscopic transport coefficients, the random motility and chemotactic sensitivity coefficients, measured in the stopped-flow diffusion chamber assay. Escherichia coli cultured over a range of growth rates in a chemostat exhibits a dramatic increase in the chemotactic sensitivity coefficient for D-fucose at low growth rates, while the random motility coefficient remains relatively constant by comparison. The change in the chemotactic sensitivity coefficient is accounted for by an independently measured increase in the number of galactose-binding proteins which mediate the chemotactic signal. This result is consistent with the relationship between macroscopic and microscopic parameters for chemotaxis, which was proposed in the mathematical model of Rivero and co-workers. (c) 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Poor condition and infection: a vicious circle in natural populations

Pathogens may be important for host population dynamics, as they can be a proximate cause of morbidity and mortality. Infection dynamics, in turn, may be dependent on the underlying condition of hosts. There is a clear potential for synergy between infection and condition: poor condition predisposes to host infections, which further reduce condition and so on. To provide empirical data that support this notion, we measured haematological indicators of infection (neutrophils and monocytes) and condition (red blood cells (RBCs) and lymphocytes) in field voles from three populations sampled monthly for 2 years. Mixed-effect models were developed to evaluate two hypotheses, (i) that individuals with low lymphocyte and/or RBC levels are more prone to show elevated haematological indicators of infection when re-sampled four weeks later, and (ii) that a decline in indicators of condition is likely to follow the development of monocytosis or neutrophilia. We found that individuals with low RBC and lymphocyte counts had increased probabilities of developing monocytosis and higher increments in neutrophils, and that high indices of infection (neutrophilia and monocytosis) were generally followed by a declining tendency in the indicators of condition (RBCs and lymphocytes). The vicious circle that these results describe suggests that while pathogens overall may be more important in wildlife dynamics than has previously been appreciated, specific pathogens are likely to play their part as elements of an interactive web rather than independent entities.     

Elevated levels of circulating pancreatic polypeptide in inflammatory and infectious disorders

Circulating levels of pancreatic polypeptide (PP) were found to be elevated when compared to healthy controls in 54% of patients with chronic inflammatory connective tissue disorders (SLE, rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, mixed connective tissue disease and temporal arteritis) and in 96% of patients with acute viral or bacterial infections. Significant positive correlations were obtained between the serum values of PP and those of haptoglobin or orosomucoid. Accompanying successful anti-inflammatory treatment of patients with autoimmune disorders, a reduction of PP levels was observed. The findings suggest that the magnitude of increase in PP was associated with the degree of the inflammatory activity. Raised PP levels may contribute to the alterations in carbohydrate and lipid metabolism observed during active inflammatory diseases in man.     

Cultural ecology and the genetical structure of Nicobar island populations

The population of Nicobar is not a single random mating population but divided into a number of subpopulations within each of which essentially random mating takes place. Heterogeneity tests indicate that there is a significant difference among subpopulations for the ABO blood group system but not for the MN system. The overall gene frequencies of the ABO system were: r = 0·914; p = 0·033; q = 0·053. The gene frequencies of the MN system are much more consistent in the area as a whole than in the ABO system. The gene frequencies of the MN system were: M = 0·92 and N = 0·08. The Wahlund's principle yields the value of Ø = 0·0358 for the MN system and the unweighted mean value of Øs equals 0·0301 for the ABO system. The founder effect may have a far greater effect than the effects of chance in the genetical structure of Nicobar subpopulations.     

Modelling seasonal variations in the age and incidence of Kawasaki disease to explore possible infectious aetiologies

The average age of infection is expected to vary during seasonal epidemics in a way that is predictable from the epidemiological features, such as the duration of infectiousness and the nature of population mixing. However, it is not known whether such changes can be detected and verified using routinely collected data. We examined the correlation between the weekly number and average age of cases using data on pre-vaccination measles and rotavirus. We show that age-incidence patterns can be observed and predicted for these childhood infections. Incorporating additional information about important features of the transmission dynamics improves the correspondence between model predictions and empirical data. We then explored whether knowledge of the age-incidence pattern can shed light on the epidemiological features of diseases of unknown aetiology, such as Kawasaki disease (KD). Our results indicate KD is unlikely to be triggered by a single acute immunizing infection, but is consistent with an infection of longer duration, a non-immunizing infection or co-infection with an acute agent and one with longer duration. Age-incidence patterns can lend insight into important epidemiological features of infections, providing information on transmission-relevant population mixing for known infections and clues about the aetiology of complex paediatric diseases.     

Northern Atlantic Oscillation effects on the temporal and spatial dynamics of green spruce aphid populations in the UK

1. The role of climate variability in determining the spatial and temporal patterns of numerical fluctuations is a central problem in ecology. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index on the population dynamics and spatial synchrony of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum across the UK was shown. 2. Fifteen overlapping time series within the UK were analysed; we used nonparametric models for determining the feedback nonlinear structure and the climatic effects. The spatial synchrony of these populations and the relationship between synchrony and NAO was estimated. 3. From the 15 time series across the UK, 11 showed positive and significant NAO effects. In most of the cases the NAO effects were nonlinear showing strong negative effects of low values. The NAO variation improve the explained variance of the first-order feedback models in 14.5%; ranging from 0% to 48%. All data showed strong-nonlinear (concave) feedback structure. In most of the localities the explained variance by the first-order feedback was about 50-60%. 4. The spatial synchrony of the per capita growth rates and residuals is high across long distances for those populations affected by NAO. The correlation function predicts a spatial scale of synchrony of about 350-400 km for NAO influenced populations. 5. We think that simple population theoretical models describing the link between NAO fluctuations and green spruce aphid dynamics may be fundamental for predicting and simulating the consequences of different climatic scenarios of the future.     

Stability of environment and of insect populations

The abundance of moths was monitored with light-traps in two sites in southern Bohemia, České Budějovice for 22 years and in Černiš for 9 years. In these sites, that are vastly different in environmental stability and predictability, stability of insect populations was studied. The amplitude of fluctuations in abundance of the insect populations, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), varied a great deal between species so that there was a large overlap between the two sites. Nevertheless there was a highly significant tendency for species at Černiš, the more stable site, to have smaller values of CV, i.e., to be less fluctuating. Also in species co-occurring in the two sites, the CV at Černiš tended to be smaller. Trends in abundance of individual species over time, both increases and decreases, were common in both sites and did not differ between habitats. Environmental stability begets insect population stability in terms of the amplitude of the fluctuations, but trends in time occur irrespective of stability of the habitat.     

Ecological correlates of risk and incidence of West Nile virus in the United States

West Nile virus, which was recently introduced to North America, is a mosquito-borne pathogen that infects a wide range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. Several species of birds appear to be the primary reservoir hosts, whereas other bird species, as well as other vertebrate species, can be infected but are less competent reservoirs. One hypothesis regarding the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus suggests that high bird diversity reduces West Nile virus transmission because mosquito blood-meals are distributed across a wide range of bird species, many of which have low reservoir competence. One mechanism by which this hypothesis can operate is that high-diversity bird communities might have lower community-competence, defined as the sum of the product of each species’ abundance and its reservoir competence index value. Additional hypotheses posit that West Nile virus transmission will be reduced when either: (1) abundance of mosquito vectors is low; or (2) human population density is low. We assessed these hypotheses at two spatial scales: a regional scale near Saint Louis, MO, and a national scale (continental USA). We found that prevalence of West Nile virus infection in mosquito vectors and in humans increased with decreasing bird diversity and with increasing reservoir competence of the bird community. Our results suggest that conservation of avian diversity might help ameliorate the current West Nile virus epidemic in the USA     

Mechanobiology of low-density lipoprotein transport within an arterial wall—Impact of hyperthermia and coupling effects

The effects of hyperthermia, coupling attributes and property variations on Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) transport within a multi-layered wall while accounting for the fluid structure interaction (FSI) is analyzed in this work. To understand the potential impact of the hyperthermia process, thermo-induced attributes are incorporated, accounting for the plasma flow, mass transfer, as well as the elastic wall structure. The coupling effect of osmotic pressure, Soret and Dufour diffusion is discussed and their influence on LDL transport is examined, demonstrating that only the Soret effect needs to be accounted for. The effect of thermal expansion on changing the behavior of flow, mass transport, and elastic structure is illustrated and analyzed while incorporating the variations in the effective LDL diffusivity and consumption rate, as well as other dominating parameters. It is shown that hyperthermia results in an enhancement in LDL transport by increasing the concentration levels within the arterial wall.     

The life cycle, population dynamics, growth and secondary production of the snail Xeropicta arenosa Ziegler (Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in northern Greece

The life cycle, population dynamics and secondary production of the xerothermophilic land snail Xeropicta arenosa were studied in northern Greece. The study of biology and the demographic analysis of the populations of X. arenosa revealed that it is a semelparous annual species. Reproduction takes place in autumn and the majority of the adults die after egglaying. Growth is continuous throughout the year and no seasonal fluctuations occur. Estimation of annual secondary production with the Hynes' size frequency method revealed a mean standing crop ( aa ) of 0.075 g m^-2 year^-1 and a productivity ( P ) of 0.267+ 0.043 gm^-2 year^-1. The annual turnover ratio ( P/ ) was equal to 3.56.     

Remote sensing and geographic information systems in the spatial temporal dynamics modeling of infectious diseases

Similar to species immigration or exotic species invasion, infectious disease transmission is strengthened due to the globalization of human activities. Using schistosomiasis as an example, we propose a conceptual model simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. We base the model on the knowledge of the interrelationship among the source, media, and the hosts of the disease. With the endemics data of schistosomiasis in Xichang, China, we demonstrate that the conceptual model is feasible; we introduce how remote sensing and geographic information systems techniques can be used in support of spatio-temporal modeling; we compare the different effects caused to the entire population when selecting different groups of people for schistosomiasis control. Our work illustrates the importance of such a modeling tool in supporting spatial decisions. Our modeling method can be directly applied to such infectious diseases as the plague, lyme disease, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The application of remote sensing and geographic information systems can shed light on the modeling of other infectious disease and invasive species studies.     

Scaling properties of childhood infectious diseases epidemics before and after mass vaccination in Canada

The goal of this paper is to analyse the scaling properties of childhood infectious disease time-series data. We present a scaling analysis of the distribution of epidemic sizes of measles, rubella, pertussis, and mumps outbreaks in Canada. This application provides a new approach in assessing infectious disease dynamics in a large vaccinated population. An inverse power-law (IPL) distribution function has been fit to the time series of epidemic sizes, and the results assessed against an exponential benchmark model. We have found that the rubella epidemic size distribution and that of measles in highly vaccinated periods follow an IPL. The IPL suggests the presence of a scale-invariant network for these diseases as a result of the heterogeneity of the individual contact rates. By contrast, it was found that pertussis and mumps were characterized by a uniform network of transmission of the exponential type, which suggests homogeneity in the contact rate or, more likely, boiled down heterogeneity by large intermixing in the population. We conclude that the topology of the network of infectious contacts depends on the disease type and its infection rate. It also appears that the socio-demographic structure of the population may play a part (e.g. pattern of contacts according to age) in the structuring of the topology of the network. The findings suggest that there is relevant information hidden in the variation of the common contagious disease time-series data, and that this information can have a bearing on the strategy of vaccination programs.