The impact of regional-scale changes in the weather on the long-term dynamics of Eudiaptomus and Daphnia in Esthwaite Water, Cumbria

1. Year‐to‐year changes in the weather have a profound effect on the seasonal dynamics of zooplankton in lakes. Here, I analyse some zooplankton data from Esthwaite Water in Cumbria and demonstrate that much of the recorded inter‐annual variation can be related to regional‐scale changes in the weather.
2. The first data set analysed shows the effect of changes in the water temperature on the winter abundance of the calanoid copepod Eudiaptomus gracilis. The highest numbers of Eudiaptomus were recorded when the winters were mild and the lowest when the winters were cold.
3. Winter temperatures in northern and western Europe are now known to be influenced by the atmospheric feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Positive values of the NAO are associated with mild winters and westerly winds and there was a significant positive correlation between the winter abundance of Eudiaptomus in Esthwaite Water and this empirical index of change.
4. The second data set analysed shows the effect of wind‐induced mixing on the summer abundance of Daphnia. The highest numbers of Daphnia were recorded in years when the early summer thermocline was deep and the lowest number in years when the thermocline was shallow.
5. One of the most important factors influencing the depth of the early summer thermocline in the English lakes is the position of the north‐wall of the Gulf Stream. Southerly movements of the Gulf Stream are typically associated with higher winds, whilst northerly movements are associated with stable conditions. In Esthwaite Water, a significant positive correlation was recorded between the abundance of Daphnia and the depth of the early summer thermocline and significant negative correlations between the same variables and the position of the Gulf Stream.
6. A detailed analysis of the seasonal variations recorded in one calm and one windy year suggest that the main factor responsible for these correlations was the entrainment of nutrients which then stimulated the growth of edible algae. Daphnia numbers were low in 1968 (a ‘north’ Gulf Stream year which was relatively calm) and high in 1972 (a ‘south’ Gulf Stream year with intense wind‐mixing).     

The influence of year-to-year variations in winter weather on the dynamics of Daphnia and Eudiaptomus in Esthwaite Water, Cumbria

1. Micro-crustacea of the genus Daphnia and Eudiaptomus have evolved different physiological mechanisms for coping with life in a rapidly changing environment. In this paper, we analyse some of the physical and biological factors influencing the winter abundance of the two species in a small lake (Esthwaite Water in Cumbria).
2. The results demonstrate that much of the year-to-year variation in their relative abundance can be related to long-term changes in the weather. The highest numbers of Daphnia were typically found in cold, calm winters when small flagellates were relatively abundant. In contrast, the highest numbers of Eudiaptomus were found in mild, windy winters when the phytoplankton community was dominated by colonial diatoms.
3. Year-to-year variations in the winter abundance of Eudiaptomus had no effect on their subsequent development but the numbers of overwintering Daphnia had a significant effect on the size of their first spring 'cohort'. The most important factor influencing the overwintering performance of the two species was the water temperature.
4. Winter air temperatures over much of Europe are influenced by the atmospheric pressure variation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Winter water temperatures in Esthwaite Water were strongly correlated with this empirical index and there was a significant positive correlation between the NAO and the number of overwintering Eudiaptomus.     

The distribution and abundance of benthic cyclopoid copepods in Esthwaite Water,Cumbria

The spatial and temporal distribution of the benthic cyclopoid copepods, Acanthocyclops viridis, Acanthocyclops bicuspidatus, Eucyclops agilis, Paracyclops fimbriatus and Macrocyclops albidus in a small eutrophic lake Esthwaite Water, Cumbria was investigated in 1982 and 1983. The behavioural and physiological mechanisms by which these organisms cope with the conditions of hypoxia and anoxia prevalent during seasonal stratification of the lake waters was considered. During stratification all of these species, with the exception of resting stage A. bicuspidatus, disappeared from the profundal zone and were limited to the shallower margins of the lake. None of these copepod species entered the plankton and established planktonic populations, none appeared capable of sustained anaerobic respiration, although all can withstand some degree of hypoxia, and only A. bicuspidatus appeared capable of entering resting stages. The data suggest that in eutrophic lakes species normally found in the profundus deal with anoxia by lateral migration to shallow waters where oxygen is available.     

The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.     

Water quality of Loch Leven: responses to enrichment, restoration and climate change

It is usually assumed that climate change will have negative impacts on water quality and hinder restoration efforts. The long-term monitoring at Loch Leven shows, however, that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive and negative impacts on water quality. In response to reductions in external nutrient loading, there have been significant reductions in in-lake phosphorus concentrations. Annual measures of chlorophyll a have, however, shown little response to these reductions. Warmer spring temperatures appear to be having a positive effect on Daphnia densities and this may be the cause of reduced chlorophyll a concentrations in spring and an associated improvement in water clarity in May and June. The clearest climate impact was the negative relationship between summer rainfall and chlorophyll a concentrations. This is highlighted in extreme weather years, with the three wettest summers having very low chlorophyll a concentrations and the driest summers having high concentrations. To predict water quality impacts of future climate change, there is a need for more seasonal predictions from climate models and a greater recognition that water quality is the outcome of seasonal responses in different functional groups of phytoplankton and zooplankton to a range of environmental drivers.     

Different effects of climate change on the population dynamics of insects

Climate change affects the pattern of population dynamics of insects in different ways. Global warming not only leads to greater over-winter survival, earlier appearance in spring, an increase in the number of generations in a year, lengthening of the reproductive season, etc., but also affects their biotic associations as a result of changes in interspecific interactions. Changes in the density of insects in response to unusually hot summers provide us with useful indications of the potential effects of global warming. Different insect guilds respond differently to hot summers, which sometimes result in an increase in density and sometimes a decrease. These effects may occur immediately or be delayed by 1 or 2 years. As long as the regime remains unchanged, the affected population can recover sooner or later. Even a single-year change in climate, however, if it allows predators to outbreak, may be strong enough to cause a regime shift. Most insects are susceptible to heat stress between 28 and 32 °C, global warming could have a more profound impact on the population dynamics and biodiversity of arthropods than has previously been predicted.     

Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

Biodiversity has been described as the diversity of life on earth within species, among species, and among ecosystems. The rate of biodiversity loss due to human activity in the last 50 years has been more rapid than at any other time in human history, and many of the drivers of biodiversity loss are increasing, including habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, climate change, and pollution, including pollution from reactive nitrogen (Nr). Of these stressors, climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly the earlier onset of spring events and migration, and lengthening of the growing season. Nitrogen (N) enrichment can enhance plant growth, but has been shown to favor, fast-growing, sometimes invasive, species over native species adapted to low N conditions. Although there have been only a few controlled studies on climate change and N interactions, inferences can be drawn from various field observations. For example, in arid ecosystems of southern California, elevated N deposition and changing precipitation patterns have promoted the conversion of native shrub communities to communities dominated by annual non-native grasses. Both empirical studies and modeling indicate that N and climate change can interact to drive losses in biodiversity greater than those caused by either stressor alone. Reducing inputs of anthropogenic Nr may be an effective mitigation strategy for protecting biodiversity in the face of climate change.     

气候变化和人为活动在宁夏草地变化中的相对作用

气候变化和人为活动是草地生态系统退化或恢复过程中的两大驱动因素。选取植被净初级生产力（NPP）为衡量指标,利用改进的Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA）模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型以及残差趋势法分别计算了宁夏草地实际净初级生产力（ANPP）、潜在净初级生产力（PNPP）和人为活动影响的生产力（HNPP）及其变化趋势,定量评估了2001-2019年气候变化和人为活动在宁夏4种类型草地（温性草甸、温性草原、温性荒漠草原和温性草原化荒漠）动态变化中的相对作用。结果表明,2001-2019年宁夏草地实际净初级生产力增加的面积占宁夏草地总面积的97.84%;全区草地潜在净初级生产力均表现为增加趋势,表明气候变化有利于植被恢复。草地恢复过程中,气候变化引起的草地恢复面积占草地恢复总面积的61.68%,气候变化和人为活动共同作用引起的草地恢复面积占38.32%;人为活动是导致草地退化的绝对主导因素。4种类型草地动态变化的驱动因素存在差异,气候变化是促进温性草甸（68.94%）和温性草原化荒漠（70.51%）恢复的主导因素,气候变化和人为活动共同作用是促进温性草原恢复的主导因素（62.30%）,温性荒漠草原的恢复是气候变化和人为活动共同作用的结果（97.93%）。水热条件好转,尤其是降水增加是宁夏草地恢复的主导气候因子,生态保护政策的实施是促进草地恢复的主要人为因素,对草地的不合理利用是导致草地退化的主要人为因素。     

Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics

The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9‐year change observed in a mixed conifer‐hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life‐history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO₂, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass‐accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long‐lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land‐use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.     

Respiratory metabolism of Cyclops bicuspidatus (sensu stricta) (Claus) (Copepoda: Cyclopoida) from Esthwaite Water,Cumbria

Summary The respiration rate of all stages of Cyclops bicuspidatus (s. str.) (Claus), a benthic copepod, from Esthwaite Water in the English Lake District, was determined at a range of field temperatures, 4° C–12° C, using cartesian diver microrespirometry. The population of C. bicuspidatus in Esthwaite Water was found to be adapted to low temperatures, with an optimum rate of metabolism at 8° C. Weight varied with temperature, in general the largest weights occurred at the lower temperatures. Adult males had higher rates of respiration than adult females, which were on average twice the size of males. Gravid and non-gravid females had similar levels of metabolism. Regression coefficients (b), derived from regressions of log oxygen consumption against log dry weight were low, ranging between 0.25–0.51 according to temperature.     

Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species

Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (?0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species‐specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature–pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature–pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature–pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO₃ budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.     

The effects of climate change on density‐dependent population dynamics of aquatic invertebrates

Global climate change has the potential to alter aquatic communities through changes in evapotranspiration and increased variability in precipitation. We used aquatic mesocosms to test the impacts of variable precipitation on population dynamics of common mosquito (Culicidae) and midge (Chironomidae) larvae that inhabit vernal pools. In a mixed deciduous forest in northern Vermont, USA, we orthogonally crossed seven levels of mean water level (increased rainfall) with seven levels of water level coefficient of variation (more variable rainfall) to simulate a broad array of climate change scenarios in 49 experimental mesocosms. The average abundance of Culicidae was highest at low water levels, whereas the average abundance of Chironomidae was highest at higher water levels and low variability in water level. Treatments and environmental and spatial covariates collectively explained 49% of the variance in mean abundance. For both taxa, we fit hierarchical Bayesian models to each 16‐week time series to estimate the parameters in a Gompertz logistic equation of population growth with density dependence. We found that Culicidae population growth rate increased with decreasing water levels and that 87% of the variance in Chironomidae density dependence could be explained by treatment. Collectively, these results suggest that climate change can alter abundances aquatic invertebrate taxa but not necessarily through the same mechanism on all populations. In the case of Culicidae the abundance is affected by changes in growth rate, and in Chironomidae by changes in the strength of density dependence.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a Mediterranean tortoise

Climatic shifts may increase the extinction risk of populations, especially when they are already suffering from other anthropogenic impacts. Our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on endangered species is limited by our scarce knowledge of the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of most organisms and by the uncertainty of climate projections, which depend strongly on the region of the earth being considered. In this study, we analysed a long‐term monitoring programme (1988–2009) of Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) aimed at evaluating the consequences of the drastic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns predicted for the Mediterranean region on the demography of a long‐lived species with low dispersal capability and already suffering a large number of threats. Capture–recapture modelling of a population in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain) allowed us to assess the effect of climate variability on the survival of tortoises. Winter rainfall was found to be the major driver of juvenile and immature survival, whereas that of adults remained high and constant across the study. Furthermore, local climate series obtained ad hoc from regional climate simulations, for this and 10 additional Mediterranean locations where tortoises occurred, provided us with reliable future climate forecasts, which were used to simulate the fate of these populations under three precipitation scenarios (mean, wet and dry) using stochastic population modelling. We show that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasiextinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment. These processes varied depending on the population and the climate scenario we considered, but our results suggest that unless other human‐induced causes of mortality are suppressed (e.g. poaching, fire, habitat fragmentation), climate variability will increase extinction risk within most of the species’ current range.     

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns,climate change effects,and conservation priorities

Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land‐cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species’ habitats can be expected as early as 2041–2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

Glacier foreland colonisation: distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects of climate change

By comparing short-term (6 years) observations with long-term (>100 years) community changes reconstructed from the chronosequence along a glacier foreland, I show that the colonisation of recently deglaciated terrain by invertebrates may constitute a process reacting sensitively to temperature fluctuations. Early colonising stages (<30 years old) currently develop faster, and intermediate successional stages (30-50 years old) slower, than would be indicated by the long-term chronosequence pattern. These differences between the chronosequence approach and direct observation can be explained by a simple model relating the rate of community evolution to the temperature record. It would mean that an increase of 0.6°C in summer temperatures approximately doubled the speed of initial colonisation, whereas later successional stages were less sensitive to climate change. The present situation appears to result from unusually warm summers around 1950 and a warm period accelerating glacier retreat since 1980. In contrast to the long-term trend, all except the youngest communities have suffered a loss in diversity in recent years.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of winter birds in Yokohama, Japan

Observations made largely from summer breeding sites in Europe and North America have been used to document the effects of climate change on many bird species. We extend these studies by examining 23 years of observations between 1986 and 2008 of six winter bird species made by citizens at a city park in Yokohama, Japan. Bird species arrive in autumn and spend the winter in the area, before departing in the late winter or spring. On average, birds species are arriving 9 days later than in the past and are departing on average 21 days earlier, meaning that the average duration of their stay in Yokohama is about 1 month shorter now than in the past. Patterns of changes over time varied among species, but departure dates changed for more species than did arrival dates. Dates of departure and arrival were sometimes correlated with monthly average temperatures—later arrivals and earlier departures were associated with warmer temperatures. In addition, interannual variation in arrival and departure dates were strongly correlated across species, suggesting that species were responding to the same or similar environmental cues. This study provides a clear demonstration of the value of using citizens to make observations that contribute to research in climate change biology.     

Linking biotic interactions and climate change to the success of exotic Daphnia lumholtzi

1. Warmer temperatures may increase cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater ecosystems, yet few ecological studies examine how increases in temperature and cyanobacterial blooms will alter the performance of non‐native species. We evaluated how competitive interactions and interactions between these two drivers of ecological change influence the performance of non‐native species using the native zooplankton Daphnia pulex and the non‐native zooplankton Daphnia lumholtzi as a model system. Based on the literature, we hypothesised that D. lumholtzi would perform best in warmer temperatures and in the presence of cyanobacteria. 2. Laboratory competition experiments showed that in the absence of competitors, growth rates of D. pulex (but not D. lumholtzi) were reduced at higher temperatures and with the cyanobacterial foods Anabaena flos‐aquae and Microcystis aeruginosa. In the presence of competitors, however, D. pulex emerged as the superior resource competitor at both temperatures with cyanobacterial food. We therefore predicted that, if competitive interactions are important to its establishment, D. lumholtzi would perform best in the absence of cyanobacteria in heated environments. 3. As predicted, when both species were introduced at low densities in field mesocosms, D. lumholtzi performed best at high temperatures without added cyanobacteria and worst at ambient temperatures with added cyanobacteria, indicating that competitive interactions are likely to be important for its establishment. 4. Taken together, these studies indicate that, while D. lumholtzi may benefit from increases in temperature, associated increased cyanobacterial blooms may hinder its performance. Thus, our findings underscore the importance of considering biotic interactions such as competition when predicting the future establishment of non‐native species in response to climate warming.     

Combined effects of nitrogen enrichment, sulphur pollution and climate change on fen meadow vegetation N:P stoichiometry and biomass

Nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) deposition, as well as altered soil moisture dynamics due to climate change can have large effects on fen meadow biogeochemistry and vegetation. Their combined effects may differ strongly from their separate effects, since each process affects different nutrients through different mechanisms. However, the impacts of these environmental problems are rarely studied in combination. We therefore investigated the separate and interactive effects of current levels of N- and S-deposition and changes in soil moisture dynamics on fen meadow vegetation. We focused on vegetation biomass and N:P stoichiometry, including access to soil P through root surface phosphatase activity, in a 3-year factorial addition experiment in an N-limited rich fen meadow in the Biebrza valley in Poland. We applied 29.5 kg N ha^?1 year^?1 and 32.1 kg S ha^?1 year^?1, which correspond to current deposition levels in Western Europe. Changes in soil moisture dynamics due to climate change were mimicked by amplified drying of the soil in summer. This level of N-deposition had limited effects on plant biomass production in this rich fen, despite low foliar N:P ratios that suggest N limitation. This level of S-deposition, however, resulted in decreased vegetation P-uptake and biomass. We also showed that increased summer drought resulted in considerable increases in vegetation biomass. We found no interactive effects on vegetation biomass or N:P stoichiometry, possibly as a result of the limited main effects of the separate processes.