Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009

Background

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has required decision-makers to act in the face of substantial uncertainties. Simulation models can be used to project the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, but the choice of the best scenario may change depending on model assumptions and uncertainties.

Methods

We developed a simulation model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a structured population using demographic data from a medium-sized city in Ontario and epidemiologic influenza pandemic data. We projected the attack rate under different combinations of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug strategies (with corresponding “trigger” conditions). To assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainty, we used “combinatorial uncertainty analysis.” This permitted us to identify the general features of public health response programs that resulted in the lowest attack rates.

Results

Delays in vaccination of 30 days or more reduced the effectiveness of vaccination in lowering the attack rate. However, pre-existing immunity in 15% or more of the population kept the attack rates low, even if the whole population was not vaccinated or vaccination was delayed. School closure was effective in reducing the attack rate, especially if applied early in the outbreak, but this is not necessary if vaccine is available early or if pre-existing immunity is strong.

Interpretation

Early action, especially rapid vaccine deployment, is disproportionately effective in reducing the attack rate. This finding is particularly important given the early appearance of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in many schools in September 2009.Jurisdictions in the northern hemisphere are bracing for a “fall wave” of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.^1–3 Decision-makers face uncertainty, not just with respect to epidemiologic characteristics of the virus,⁴ but also program uncertainties related to feasibility, timeliness and effectiveness of mitigation strategies.⁵ Policy decisions must be made against this backdrop of uncertainty. However, the effectiveness of any mitigation strategy generally depends on the epidemiologic characteristics of the pathogen as well as the other mitigation strategies adopted. Mathematical models can project strategy effectiveness under hypothetical epidemiologic and program scenarios.^6–12 In the case of pandemic influenza, models have been used to assess the effectiveness of school closure⁷ and optimal use of antiviral drug^6,9,10 and vaccination strategies.⁸ However, model projections can be sensitive to input parameter values; thus, data uncertainty is an issue.¹³ Uncertainty analysis can help address the impact of uncertainties on model predictions but is often underutilized.¹³In this article, we present a simulation model of pandemic influenza transmission and mitigation in a population. This model projects the overall attack rate (percentage of people infected) during an outbreak. We introduce a formal method of uncertainty analysis that has not previously been applied to pandemic influenza, and we use this method to assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainties. The model is intended to address the following policy questions that have been raised during the 2009 influenza pandemic: What is the impact of delayed vaccine delivery on attack rates? Can attack rates be substantially reduced without closing schools? What is the impact of pre-existing immunity from spring and summer 2009? We addressed these questions using a simulation model that projects the impact of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug treatment strategies on attack rates.     

Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

At this critical juncture when the world has not yet recovered from the threat of avian influenza, the virus has returned in the disguise of swine influenza, a lesser known illness common in pigs. It has reached pandemic proportions in a short time span with health personnel still devising ways to identify the novel H1N1 virus and develop vaccines against it. The H1N1 virus has caused a considerable number of deaths within the short duration since its emergence. Presently, there are no effective methods to contain this newly emerged virus. Therefore, a proper and clear insight is urgently required to prevent an outbreak in the future and make preparations that may be planned well in advance. This review is an attempt to discuss the historical perspective of the swine flu virus, its epidemiology and route of transmission to better understand the various control measures that may be taken to fight the danger of a global pandemic.     

Cost-effective strategies for mitigating a future influenza pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics

Background

We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to $777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses.

Conclusion

The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severity had no effect on the overall findings.     

Influenza A: From highly pathogenic H5N1 to pandemic 2009 H1N1. Epidemiology and clinical features

The last decade has seen the emergence of two new influenza A subtypes and they have become a cause of concern for the global community. These are the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus (H5N1) and the Pandemic 2009 influenza H1N1 virus. Since 2003 the H5N1 virus has caused widespread disease and death in poultry, mainly in south East Asia and Africa. In humans the number of cases infected with this virus is few but the mortality has been about 60%. Most patients have presented with severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. The second influenza virus, the pandemic H1N1 2009, emerged in Mexico in March this year. This virus acquired the ability for sustained human to human spread and within a few months spread throughout the world and infected over 4 lakh individuals. The symptoms of infection with this virus are similar to seasonal influenza but it currently affecting younger individuals more often. Fortunately the mortality has been low. Both these new influenza viruses are currently circulating and have different clinical and epidemiological characteristics.     

Oseltamivir-resistant pandemic (H1N1)2009 in Yemen - case report

To investigate West Nile virus (WNV) circulation in rural populations in Gabon, we undertook a large serological survey focusing on human rural populations, using two different ELISA assays. A sample was considered positive when it reacted in both tests. A total of 2320 villagers from 115 villages were interviewed and sampled. Surprisingly, the WNV-specific IgG prevalence was high overall (27.2%) and varied according to the ecosystem: 23.7% in forested regions, 21.8% in savanna, and 64.9% in the lakes region. The WNV-specific IgG prevalence rate was 30% in males and 24.6% in females, and increased with age. Although serological cross-reactions between flaviviruses are likely and may be frequent, these findings strongly suggest that WNV is widespread in Gabon. The difference in WNV prevalence among ecosystems suggests preferential circulation in the lakes region. The linear increase with age suggests continuous exposure of Gabonese populations to WNV. Further investigations are needed to determine the WNV cycle and transmission patterns in Gabon.     

Overview/reflections on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

The Influenza A H1N1 2009 pandemic was a test of the global public health response. Strategies that worked included mass vaccine production and antivirals while quarantine and isolation proved futile. Among the lessons learned was the importance of severity in the definition of a pandemic.     

2009 Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Resembles Previous Influenza Isolates

Background

In April 2009, novel swine-origin influenza viruses (S-OIV) were identified in patients from Mexico and the United States. The viruses were genetically characterized as a novel influenza A (H1N1) strain originating in swine, and within a very short time the S-OIV strain spread across the globe via human-to-human contact.

Methodology

We conducted a comprehensive computational search of all available sequences of the surface proteins of H1N1 swine influenza isolates and found that a similar strain to S-OIV appeared in Thailand in 2000. The earlier isolates caused infections in pigs but only one sequenced human case, A/Thailand/271/2005 (H1N1).

Significance

Differences between the Thai cases and S-OIV may help shed light on the ability of the current outbreak strain to spread rapidly among humans.     

Increased pathogenicity of a reassortant 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus containing an H5N1 hemagglutinin

A novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in 2009 (pH1N1) to become the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. This virus is now cocirculating with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses in many parts of the world, raising concerns that a reassortment event may lead to highly pathogenic influenza strains with the capacity to infect humans more readily and cause severe disease. To investigate the virulence of pH1N1-H5N1 reassortant viruses, we created pH1N1 (A/California/04/2009) viruses expressing individual genes from an avian H5N1 influenza strain (A/Hong Kong/483/1997). Using several in vitro models of virus replication, we observed increased replication for a reassortant CA/09 virus expressing the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of HK/483 (CA/09-483HA) relative to that of either parental CA/09 virus or reassortant CA/09 expressing other HK/483 genes. This increased replication correlated with enhanced pathogenicity in infected mice similar to that of the parental HK/483 strain. The serial passage of the CA/09 parental virus and the CA/09-483HA virus through primary human lung epithelial cells resulted in increased pathogenicity, suggesting that these viruses easily adapt to humans and become more virulent. In contrast, serial passage attenuated the parental HK/483 virus in vitro and resulted in slightly reduced morbidity in vivo, suggesting that sustained replication in humans attenuates H5N1 avian influenza viruses. Taken together, these data suggest that reassortment between cocirculating human pH1N1 and avian H5N1 influenza strains will result in a virus with the potential for increased pathogenicity in mammals.     

Comparative analysis of hemagglutinin of 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic indicates its evolution to 1918 H1N1 pandemic

To gain insight into the possible origin of the hemagglutinin of 2009 outbreak, we performed its comparative analysis with hemagglutinin of influenza viral strains from 2005 to 2008 and the past pandemics of 1977, 1968, 1957 and 1918. This insilico analysis showed a maximum sequence similarity between 2009 and 1918 pandemics. Primary structure analysis, antigenic and glycosylation site analyses revealed that this protein has evolved from 1918 pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis of HA amino acid sequence of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) viruses indicated that this virus possesses a distinctive evolutionary trait with 1918 influenza A virus. Although the disordered sequences are different among all the isolates, the disordered positions and sequences between 2009 and 1918 isolates show a greater similarity. Thus these analyses contribute to the evidence of the evolution of 2009 pandemic from 1918 influenza pandemic. This is the first computational evolutionary analysis of HA protein of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.     

2009甲型H1N1流感病毒研究进展

2009年3月在美国和墨西哥爆发的新型甲型H1N1流感在很短的时间内便扩散到世界多个国家,形成了流感的大流行,引起世界卫生组织和各国的高度重视。综述新型甲型H1N1流感病毒的基因组来源、目前主要的检测手段,并对预防和治疗的方法进行简单介绍。     

Characterization of Oseltamivir-Resistant 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza A Viruses

Influenza viruses resistant to antiviral drugs emerge frequently. Not surprisingly, the widespread treatment in many countries of patients infected with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) viruses with the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir has led to the emergence of pandemic strains resistant to these drugs. Sporadic cases of pandemic influenza have been associated with mutant viruses possessing a histidine-to-tyrosine substitution at position 274 (H274Y) in the NA, a mutation known to be responsible for oseltamivir resistance. Here, we characterized in vitro and in vivo properties of two pairs of oseltaimivir-sensitive and -resistant (possessing the NA H274Y substitution) 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses isolated in different parts of the world. An in vitro NA inhibition assay confirmed that the NA H274Y substitution confers oseltamivir resistance to 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses. In mouse lungs, we found no significant difference in replication between oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant viruses. In the lungs of mice treated with oseltamivir or even zanamivir, 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses with the NA H274Y substitution replicated efficiently. Pathological analysis revealed that the pathogenicities of the oseltamivir-resistant viruses were comparable to those of their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts in ferrets. Further, the oseltamivir-resistant viruses transmitted between ferrets as efficiently as their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts. Collectively, these data indicate that oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses with the NA H274Y substitution were comparable to their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts in their pathogenicity and transmissibility in animal models. Our findings highlight the possibility that NA H274Y-possessing oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses could supersede oseltamivir-sensitive viruses, as occurred with seasonal H1N1 viruses.     

Determinants of non-vaccination against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in pregnant women: a prospective cohort study

Background

In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 882 pregnant women were randomly included between October 12, 2009 and February 3, 2010, with the aim to study characteristics of pandemic influenza during pregnancy. At inclusion, socio-demographic, medical, obstetrical factors and those associated with a higher risk of flu exposition and disease-spreading were systematically collected. Pandemic flu vaccine uptake was checked until delivery. 555 (62.9%) women did not get vaccinated. Determinants associated with non-vaccination in a multivariate logistic regression were: geographic origin (Sub-Saharan African origin, adjusted Odd Ratio aOR = 5.4[2.3–12.7], North African origin, aOR = 2.5[1.3–4.7] and Asian origin, aOR = 2.1[1.7–2.6] compared to French and European origin) and socio-professional categories (farmers, craftsmen and tradesmen, aOR = 2.3[2.0–2.6], intermediate professionals, aOR = 1.3[1.0–1.6], employees and manual workers, aOR = 2.5[1.4–4.4] compared to managers and intellectual professionals). The probability of not receiving pandemic flu vaccine was lower among women vaccinated against seasonal flu in the previous 5 years (aOR = 0.6[0.4–0.8]) and among those who stopped smoking before or early during pregnancy (aOR = 0.6[0.4–0.8]). Number of children less than 18 years old living at home, work in contact with children or in healthcare area, or professional contact with the public, were not associated with a higher vaccine uptake.

Conclusions/Significance

In this cohort of pregnant women, vaccine coverage against pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 flu was low, particularly in immigrant women and those having a low socio-economic status. To improve its effectiveness, future vaccination campaign for pregnant women should be more specifically tailored for these populations.     

Effect of priming with H1N1 influenza viruses of variable antigenic distances on challenge with 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus

Compared to seasonal influenza viruses, the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus caused greater morbidity and mortality in children and young adults. People over 60 years of age showed a higher prevalence of cross-reactive pH1N1 antibodies, suggesting that they were previously exposed to an influenza virus or vaccine that was antigenically related to the pH1N1 virus. To define the basis for this cross-reactivity, ferrets were infected with H1N1 viruses of variable antigenic distance that circulated during different decades from the 1930s (Alaska/35), 1940s (Fort Monmouth/47), 1950s (Fort Warren/50), and 1990s (New Caledonia/99) and challenged with 2009 pH1N1 virus 6 weeks later. Ferrets primed with the homologous CA/09 or New Jersey/76 (NJ/76) virus served as a positive control, while the negative control was an influenza B virus that should not cross-protect against influenza A virus infection. Significant protection against challenge virus replication in the respiratory tract was observed in ferrets primed with AK/35, FM/47, and NJ/76; FW/50-primed ferrets showed reduced protection, and NC/99-primed ferrets were not protected. The hemagglutinins (HAs) of AK/35, FM/47, and FW/50 differ in the presence of glycosylation sites. We found that the loss of protective efficacy observed with FW/50 was associated with the presence of a specific glycosylation site. Our results suggest that changes in the HA occurred between 1947 and 1950, such that prior infection could no longer protect against 2009 pH1N1 infection. This provides a mechanistic understanding of the nature of serological cross-protection observed in people over 60 years of age during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.     

Age-matched comparison of children hospitalized for 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza with those hospitalized for seasonal H1N1 and H3N2

BACKGROUND: A wide spectrum of clinical manifestation ranging from deaths to a mild course of disease has been reported in children infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza. METHODOLOGY/MAJOR FINDINGS: We conducted an age-matched control study comparing children hospitalized for pH1N1 with historic controls infected with seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza to correct for the effect of age on disease susceptibility and clinical manifestations. We also compared children with pH1N1 to children concurrently admitted for seasonal influenza during the pandemic period to adjust for differences in health-seeking behavior during the pandemic or other potential bias associated with historic controls. There was no death or intensive care admission. Children with pH1N1 were more likely to have at least one risk condition for influenza, an underlying chronic pulmonary condition, more likely to have asthma exacerbation and to be treated with oseltamivir. There was no difference in other aspects of the clinical course or outcome. CONCLUSION: Disease manifestation of children hospitalized for pH1N1 infection was mild in our patient population.     

The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination

Background

During the influenza pandemic of 2009 estimates of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection were needed to guide vaccination policies and inform other control measures. Serological studies are the most reliable way to measure influenza infection independent of symptoms. We reviewed all published serological studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 prior to the initiation of population-based vaccination against the pandemic strain.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We searched for studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection in the wider community. We excluded studies that did not include both pre- and post-pandemic serological sampling and studies that included response to vaccination. We identified 47 potentially eligible studies and included 12 of them in the review. Where there had been a significant first wave, the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection was reported in the range 16%–28% in pre-school aged children, 34%–43% in school aged children and 12%–15% in young adults. Only 2%–3% of older adults were infected. The proportion of the entire population infected ranged from 11%–18%. We re-estimated the cumulative incidence to account for the small proportion of infections that may not have been detected by serology, and performed direct age-standardisation to the study population. For those countries where it could be calculated, this suggested a population cumulative incidence in the range 11%–21%.

Conclusions and Significance

Around the world, the cumulative incidence of infection (which is higher than the cumulative incidence of clinical disease) was below that anticipated prior to the pandemic. Serological studies need to be routine in order to be sufficiently timely to provide support for decisions about vaccination.     

Prevalence of seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) virus after the 2009 pandemic

Background

Before pandemic (H1N1) 2009, less than 10% of serum samples collected from all age groups in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada, showed seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, except those from very elderly people. We reassessed this profile of seroprotection by age in the same region six months after the fall 2009 pandemic and vaccination campaign.

Methods

We evaluated 100 anonymized serum samples per 10-year age group based on convenience sampling. We measured levels of antibody against the pandemic virus by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. We assessed geometric mean titres and the proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels (hemagglutination inhibition titre ≥ 40). We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate titre thresholds of 80, 20 and 10.

Results

Serum samples from 1127 people aged 9 months to 101 years were obtained. The overall age-standardized proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels was 46%. A U-shaped age distribution was identified regardless of assay or titre threshold applied. Among those less than 20 years old and those 80 years and older, the prevalence of seroprotection was comparably high at about 70%. Seroprotection was 44% among those aged 20–49 and 30% among those 50–79 years. It was lowest among people aged 70–79 years (21%) and highest among those 90 years and older (88%).

Interpretation

We measured much higher levels of seroprotection after the 2009 pandemic compared than before the pandemic, with a U-shaped age distribution now evident. These findings, particularly the low levels of seroprotection among people aged 50–79 years, should be confirmed in other settings and closer to the influenza season.In a previous age-based survey of about 1000 anonymized serum samples collected before substantial pandemic (H1N1) 2009 activity in the Lower Mainland of the province of British Columbia, Canada, we found that less than 10% of children and adults under 70 years of age had seroprotective levels of antibody against the pandemic (H1N1) virus.¹ This proportion was slightly higher among people aged 70–79 years (27%) and substantially higher among those above 80 years of age (77%).¹The 2009 influenza pandemic and the broad and effective vaccination campaign introduced major changes to this population’s immune status. The first wave in the province, in the spring and summer months, was of limited activity and was followed by a second, more substantial and widespread wave in the fall that peaked during the last week of October and resolved by the end of 2009.² Meanwhile, a highly immunogenic adjuvanted vaccine was provided free of charge through a universal vaccination campaign that targeted all Canadians.³ Supply was limited initially, requiring sequenced rollout of the vaccine, starting with children under five years of age, pregnant women, and people under 65 years who had comorbidities.⁴ The uptake of the vaccine of about 35%–45% in the province overall^4–6 and 44% in the Lower Mainland (Dr. Monika Naus, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC: personal communication, 2010) was estimated to be moderate compared with rates of uptake in other provinces.To assess seroprotective antibody levels after the 2009 pandemic, we repeated our age-based survey of antibody levels against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in a further 1000 serum samples collected from people in the Lower Mainland in May and June 2010, more than six months after the last peak of the epidemic.     

Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)

Background  

Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting.     

Genetic characteristics of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza a viruses isolated from Mainland China

A total of 100 HIN1 flu real-time-PCR positive throat swabs collected from fever patients in Zhejiang,Hubei and Guangdong between June and November 2009,were provided by local CDC laboratories.After MDCK cell culture,57 Influenza A Pandemic (H1N1) viruses were isolated and submitted for whole genome sequencing.A total of 39 HA sequences,52 NA sequences,36 PB2 sequences,31 PB1 sequences,40 PA sequences,48 NP sequences,51 MP sequences and 36 NS sequences were obtained,including 20 whole genome sequences.Sequence comparison revealed they shared a high degree of homology (96％～99％) with known epidemic strains (A/Califomia/04/2009(H1N1).Phylogenetic analysis showed that although the sequences were highly conserved,they clustered into a small number of groups with only a few distinct strains.Site analysis revealed three substitutions at loop 220 (221-228) of the HA receptor binding site in the 39 HA sequences:A/Hubei/86/2009 PKVRDQEG→PKVRDQEA,A/Zhejiang/08/2009 PKVRDQEG→PKVRDQER,A/Hubei/75/2009PKVRDQEG→PKVRDQGG,the A/Hubei/75/2009 was isolated from an acute case,while the other two were from patients with mild symptoms.Other key sites such as 119,274,292 and 294 amino acids of NA protein,627 of PB2 protein were conserved.Meanwhile,all the M2 protein sequences possessed the Ser32Asn mutation,suggesting that these viruses were resistant to adamantanes.Comparison of these sequences with other H1N1 viruses collected from the NCBI database provides insight into H1N1 transmission and circulation patterns.     

Pathogenesis and transmission of triple-reassortant swine H1N1 influenza viruses isolated before the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus represents the greatest incidence of human infection with an influenza virus of swine origin to date. Moreover, triple-reassortant swine (TRS) H1N1 viruses, which share similar host and lineage origins with 2009 H1N1 viruses, have been responsible for sporadic human cases since 2005. Similar to 2009 H1N1 viruses, TRS viruses are capable of causing severe disease in previously healthy individuals and frequently manifest with gastrointestinal symptoms; however, their ability to cause severe disease has not been extensively studied. Here, we evaluated the pathogenicity and transmissibility of two TRS viruses associated with disease in humans in the ferret model. TRS and 2009 H1N1 viruses exhibited comparable viral titers and histopathologies following virus infection and were similarly unable to transmit efficiently via respiratory droplets in the ferret model. Utilizing TRS and 2009 H1N1 viruses, we conducted extensive hematologic and blood serum analyses on infected ferrets to identify lymphohematopoietic parameters associated with mild to severe influenza virus infection. Following H1N1 or H5N1 influenza virus infection, ferrets were found to recapitulate several laboratory abnormalities previously documented with human disease, furthering the utility of the ferret model for the assessment of influenza virus pathogenicity.     

Antigen-Antibody docking reveals the molecular basis for cross-reactivity of the 1918 and 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic viruses

To understand the reported cross-reactivity of the 2009 H1N1 and the 1918 H1N1 pandemic viruses we docked the crystal structure of 2D1, an antibody derived from a survivor of the 1918 pandemic, to the structures of hemaglutinin (HA) of the 2009 strain and seasonal H1 vaccine strains. Our studies revealed that 2D1 binds to the 2009 HA at antigenic site 'Sa', with stabilizing contacts, similar to that in an available co-crystal structure of 2D1-1918 HA. However, 2D1 failed to bind to the known antigenic sites in the HAs of seasonal strains. Our study thus reveals the molecular basis for pre-existing immunity in elderly people to the 2009 pandemic virus.