How disturbance,competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition‐induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high‐emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high‐emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.     

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three‐dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20‐year span at the end of the century (2080–2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg‐to‐fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate‐change‐related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.     

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.     

Two mechanisms of aquatic and terrestrial habitat change along an Alaskan Arctic coastline

Arctic habitats at the interface between land and sea are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The northern Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (N-TLSA), a coastal plain ecosystem along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska, provides habitat for migratory waterbirds, caribou, and potentially, denning polar bears. The 60-km coastline of N-TLSA is experiencing increasing rates of coastline erosion and storm surge flooding far inland resulting in lake drainage and conversion of freshwater lakes to estuaries. These physical mechanisms are affecting upland tundra as well. To better understand how these processes are affecting habitat, we analyzed long-term observational records coupled with recent short-term monitoring. Nearly the entire coastline has accelerating rates of erosion ranging from 6 m/year from 1955 to 1979 and most recently peaking at 17 m/year from 2007 to 2009, yet an intensive monitoring site along a higher bluff (3–6 masl) suggested high interannual variability. The frequency and magnitude of storm events appears to be increasing along this coastline and these patterns correspond to a greater number of lake tapping and flooding events since 2000. For the entire N-TLSA, we estimate that 6% of the landscape consists of salt-burned tundra, while 41% is prone to storm surge flooding. This offset may indicate the relative frequency of low-magnitude flood events along the coastal fringe. Monitoring of coastline lakes confirms that moderate westerly storms create extensive flooding, while easterly storms have negligible effects on lakes and low-lying tundra. This study of two interacting physical mechanisms, coastal erosion and storm surge flooding, provides an important example of the complexities and data needs for predicting habitat change and biological responses along Arctic land–ocean interfaces.     

Responses of population structure and genomic diversity to climate change and fishing pressure in a pelagic fish

The responses of marine species to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing) interact with ecological and evolutionary processes that are not well understood. Knowledge of changes in the distribution range and genetic diversity of species and their populations into the future is essential for the conservation and sustainable management of resources. Almaco jack (Seriola rivoliana) is a pelagic fish with high importance to fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific Ocean. In this study, we assessed contemporary genomic diversity and structure in loci that are putatively under selection (outlier loci) and determined their potential functions. Using a combination of genotype–environment association, spatial distribution models, and demogenetic simulations, we modeled the effects of climate change (under three different RCP scenarios) and fishing pressure on the species' geographic distribution and genomic diversity and structure to 2050 and 2100. Our results show that most of the outlier loci identified were related to biological and metabolic processes that may be associated with temperature and salinity. The contemporary genomic structure showed three populations—two in the Eastern Pacific (Cabo San Lucas and Eastern Pacific) and one in the Central Pacific (Hawaii). Future projections suggest a loss of suitable habitat and potential range contractions for most scenarios, while fishing pressure decreased population connectivity. Our results suggest that future climate change scenarios and fishing pressure will affect the genomic structure and genotypic composition of S. rivoliana and lead to loss of genomic diversity in populations distributed in the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, which could have profound effects on fisheries that depend on this resource.     

Effects of spatial distance,physical barriers,and habitat on a stream fish metacommunity

Hydrobiologia - Metacommunity structure depends on environmental and spatial factors. Stream fishes are constrained to disperse within dendritic networks and waterfalls and other barriers add...     

General relationships between consumer dispersal,resource dispersal and metacommunity diversity

One of the central questions of metacommunity theory is how dispersal of organisms affects species diversity. Here, we show that the diversity–dispersal relationship should not be studied in isolation of other abiotic and biotic flows in the metacommunity. We study a mechanistic metacommunity model in which consumer species compete for an abiotic or biotic resource. We consider both consumer species specialised to a habitat patch, and generalist species capable of using the resource throughout the metacommunity. We present analytical results for different limiting values of consumer dispersal and resource dispersal, and complement these results with simulations for intermediate dispersal values. Our analysis reveals generic patterns for the combined effects of consumer and resource dispersal on the metacommunity diversity of consumer species, and shows that hump‐shaped relationships between local diversity and dispersal are not universal. Diversity–dispersal relationships can also be monotonically increasing or multimodal. Our work is a new step towards a general theory of metacommunity diversity integrating dispersal at multiple trophic levels.     

Nest predation and habitat change interact to influence Siberian jay numbers

We studied Siberian jays, breeding in northern Sweden, to examine the potential for interactions between nest predation and reduced vegetation heterogeneity around nest sites to cause a decrease in jay numbers. Parent behaviour and nests are highly cryptic in the species. Our 12-year data showed, however, that nests had a probability of only 0.46 to be successful and produce at least one nestling. Nest predation was intense and a main cause of nest failure. All predators that could be identified were visually oriented hunters, mostly other corvids able to colonize taiga forest only close to human settlements. Consistent with the idea that predators used visual cues, nest predation increased with parental activity, which suggests that predators used parental provisioning trips to locate nests. Furthermore, a reduction in daily nest survival rates with decreasing amount of nesting cover was more pronounced in areas with high corvid activity as predicted when cover mediates the hunting efficiency of visual oriented predators. Declining temperatures interacted with the effects of habitat characteristics to further reduce daily nest survival rates suggesting that parents were not able to increase nest visitation rates to satisfy the higher energy demands of their nestlings without endangering the nest. Our results identify a mechanism through which predation and human-induced reduction in nesting cover on a larger scale may interact to cause a reduction in Siberian jay numbers larger than expected from habitat loss alone.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.     

Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change

Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum (T_opt) or critical evaporative water loss (EWL_crit) limits, with and without shade‐ or water‐seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002–2012), we predict that harmful thermal (>T_opt) and hydric (>EWL_crit) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow‐free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow‐free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding T_opt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding T_opt, critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow‐free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow‐free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.     

Temperature,invaders and patchy habitat interact to limit the distribution of a vulnerable freshwater fish

Interacting global‐change drivers such as invasive species and climate warming are likely to have major and potentially unexpected influences on aquatic ecosystems. In river networks, modified water temperature combined with patchy physical conditions will likely cause shifts in the amount and distribution of suitable habitat, with influential invasive species further altering habitat availability. We examined how distributions of a thermally sensitive galaxiid fish native to the alpine rivers of New Zealand, Galaxias paucispondylus, were influenced by these drivers using spatially extensive presence–absence electrofishing surveys of 46 sites spread over four subcatchments. A unimodal response to water temperature and an interaction with substratum size meant G. paucispondylus were limited to streams with average summer water temperatures between 10.6 and 13.8 °C and were absent when average substratum sizes were <36 mm, regardless of temperature. In addition, non‐native trout >150 mm long excluded G. paucispondylus, but were only found in streams with average summer water temperatures <10.6 °C. These influences of trout likely strengthened the unimodal temperature response of G. paucispondylus and led to a very small G. paucispondylus realized niche. When predicted temperature increases were applied to catchment models, G. paucispondylus distributions were patchy and variable across subcatchments. Moreover, local physical characteristics of river networks were particularly important because of the non‐linear and interactive influences of temperature and substratum size on the outcome of species interactions. Therefore, substratum sizes, water temperature and a non‐native predator combined to influence the distribution of this thermally sensitive fish, illustrating how the effects of climate warming will likely be strongly context‐dependent and interactive.     

Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Aim  We characterized changes in reporting rates and abundances of bird species over a period of severe rainfall deficiency and increasing average temperatures. We also measured flowering in eucalypts, which support large numbers of nectarivores characteristic of the region.
Location  A 30,000-km² region of northern Victoria, Australia, consisting of limited amounts of remnant native woodlands embedded in largely agricultural landscapes.
Methods  There were three sets of monitoring studies, pitched at regional (survey programmes in 1995–97, 2004–05 and 2006–08), landscape (2002–03 and 2006–07) and site (1997–2008 continuously) scales. Bird survey techniques used a standard 2-ha, 20-min count method. We used Bayesian analyses of reporting rates to document statistically changes in the avifauna through time at each spatial scale.
Results  Bird populations in the largest remnants of native vegetation (up to 40,000 ha), some of which have been declared as national parks in the past decade, experienced similar declines to those in heavily cleared landscapes. All categories of birds (guilds based on foraging substrate, diet, nest site; relative mobility; geographical distributions) were affected similarly. We detected virtually no bird breeding in the latest survey periods. Eucalypt flowering has declined significantly over the past 12 years of drought.
Main conclusions  Declines in the largest woodland remnants commensurate with those in cleared landscapes suggest that reserve systems may not be relied upon to sustain species under climate change. We attribute population declines to low breeding success due to reduced food. Resilience of bird populations in this woodland system might be increased by active management to enhance habitat quality in existing vegetation and restoration of woodland in the more fertile parts of landscapes.     

High community turnover and dispersal limitation relative to rapid climate change

Aim Many competing hypotheses seek to identify the mechanisms behind species richness gradients. Yet, the determinants of species turnover over broad scales are uncertain. We test whether environmental dissimilarity predicts biotic turnover spatially and temporally across an array of environmental variables and spatial scales using recently observed climate changes as a pseudo‐experimental opportunity. Location Canada. Methods We used an extensive database of observation records of 282 Canadian butterfly species collected between 1900 and 2010 to characterize spatial and temporal turnover based on Jaccard indices. We compare relationships between spatial turnover and differences in an array of relevant environmental conditions, including aspects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, primary productivity and land cover. Measurements were taken within 100‐, 200‐ and 400‐km grid cells, respectively. We tested the relative importance of each variable in predicting spatial turnover using bootstrap analysis. Finally, we tested for effects of temperature and precipitation change on temporal turnover, including distinctly accounting for turnover under individual species’ potential dispersal limitations. Results Temperature differences between areas correlate with spatial turnover in butterfly assemblages, independently of distance, sampling differences or the spatial resolution of the analysis. Increasing temperatures are positively related to biotic turnover within quadrats through time. Limitations on species dispersal may cause observed biotic turnover to be lower than expected given the magnitude of temperature changes through time. Main conclusions Temperature differences can account for spatial trends in biotic dissimilarity and turnover through time in areas where climate is changing. Butterfly communities are changing quickly in some areas, probably reflecting the dispersal capacities of individual species. However, turnover is lower through time than expected in many areas, suggesting that further work is needed to understand the factors that limit dispersal across broad regions. Our results illustrate the large‐scale effects of climate change on biodiversity in areas with strong environmental gradients.     

Habitat stability affects dispersal and the ability to track climate change

Habitat persistence should influence dispersal ability, selecting for stronger dispersal in habitats of lower temporal stability. As standing (lentic) freshwater habitats are on average less persistent over time than running (lotic) habitats, lentic species should show higher dispersal abilities than lotic species. Assuming that climate is an important determinant of species distributions, we hypothesize that lentic species should have distributions that are closer to equilibrium with current climate, and should more rapidly track climatic changes. We tested these hypotheses using datasets from 1988 and 2006 containing all European dragon- and damselfly species. Bioclimatic envelope models showed that lentic species were closer to climatic equilibrium than lotic species. Furthermore, the models over-predicted lotic species ranges more strongly than lentic species ranges, indicating that lentic species track climatic changes more rapidly than lotic species. These results are consistent with the proposed hypothesis that habitat persistence affects the evolution of dispersal.     

Growth,condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change

Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south‐western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen‐balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013–15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently‐open, one seasonally‐closed and one normally‐closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter‐estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993–96 and 2013–15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally‐closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine “health.”     

Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness

The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48 × 48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8 × 4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large‐scale refugia is the priority. In human‐dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large‐scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network.     

Opening of an MPA to fishing: Natural variations in the structure of a coral reef fish assemblage obscure changes due to fishing

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are known to enhance diversity, density and biomass of coral reef fishes and to modify the size and trophic structures of these fish assemblages. Opening to fishing has the opposite effects, but on a much shorter time scale. The present study compares the evolution of the fish assemblages of two adjacent reef zones, both initially MPAs, one of them being afterwards opened to fishing. The study was conducted on Aboré Reef, a New Caledonian barrier reef (SW Pacific) which constituted a 148 km² marine protected area, of which 69 km² are within the lagoon. Two surveys of a coral reef fish assemblage, using underwater visual censuses, were performed, the first one was conducted in July 1993 following 5 years of protection from fishing, the second one was conducted in July 1995; part of the reef having been opened to fishing activity in September 1993. This study examined the effects of two factors on these fish communities: time (1993 vs. 1995) and zone (reefs protected from fishing vs. unprotected reefs); the interaction of these two factors indicating an effect of either protection or opening to fishing. Diversity (species/transect), density and biomass were tested for all species together (377 species), then according to diet, size and commercial use. There was a significant decrease over time of most values in both fished and unfished areas, the decrease being greater in the zone opened to fishing. The magnitude of decrease over time was within the range of known time variations from other studies in New Caledonia and other Pacific locations. However, this decrease was so large that it prevented the detection of effects linked to protection. Only some minor effects could be detected for 16 species with no specific pattern according to diet, size or use. The density and biomass of species of low commercial value were also affected by opening to fishing. Relative changes in diversity could be better detected than relative changes in density or biomass. This study demonstrates that on a short-term basis (2 years), natural variations can be of larger magnitude than changes that may be induced by management options, especially when fishing pressure is not very high.     

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialisation in metacommunity structuring of aquatic macroinvertebrates in isolated spring fens

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An invasive plant and climate change threat index for weed risk management: Integrating habitat distribution pattern and dispersal process

Invasive plants pose a significant threat to the integrity and biodiversity of native systems. Weed risk assessment and management provides a framework for assessing this threat. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the threat posed to biodiversity by invasive plants in a rapidly changing climate. This paper aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on exotic plant habitats, and incorporates elements of dispersal to develop a management index for identifying invasive plant threat under climate change. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability is modelled at the landscape scale for multiple exotic plant species under current climate and a climate change scenario for the year 2030. Expert opinion of the dominant dispersal mechanisms and weed status is used to model relative dispersal threat of each exotic plant species. These pattern and process outputs are integrated to create a multi-species management priority layer in an effort to synthesise the inherently complex outputs from multiple models of multiple species. The overall multi-species management index thus combines pattern and process to identify geographic locations at greatest threat from invasion under climate change.     

Long‐term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices

Aim South‐eastern Australia is a climate change hotspot with well‐documented recent changes in its physical marine environment. The impact on and temporal responses of the biota to change are less well understood, but appear to be due to influences of climate, as well as the non‐climate related past and continuing human impacts. We attempt to resolve the agents of change by examining major temporal and distributional shifts in the fish fauna and making a tentative attribution of causal factors. Location Temperate seas of south‐eastern Australia. Methods Mixed data sources synthesized from published accounts, scientific surveys, spearfishing and angling competitions, commercial catches and underwater photographic records, from the ‘late 1800s’ to the ‘present’, were examined to determine shifts in coastal fish distributions. Results Forty‐five species, representing 27 families (about 30% of the inshore fish families occurring in the region), exhibited major distributional shifts thought to be climate related. These are distributed across the following categories: species previously rare or unlisted (12), with expanded ranges (23) and/or abundance increases (30), expanded populations in south‐eastern Tasmania (16) and extra‐limital vagrants (4). Another 9 species, representing 7 families, experienced longer‐term changes (since the 1800s) probably due to anthropogenic factors, such as habitat alteration and fishing pressure: species now extinct locally (3), recovering (3), threatened (2) or with remnant populations (1). One species is a temporary resident periodically recruited from New Zealand. Of fishes exhibiting an obvious poleward movement, most are reef dwellers from three Australian biogeographic categories: widespread southern, western warm temperate (Flindersian) or eastern warm temperate (Peronian) species. Main conclusions Some of the region's largest predatory reef fishes have become extinct in Tasmanian seas since the ‘late 1800s’, most likely as a result of poor fishing practices. In more recent times, there have been major changes in the distribution patterns of Tasmanian fishes that correspond to dramatic warming observed in the local marine environment.