Wildlife disease elimination and density dependence

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging wildlife epidemics, yet the means of control may be limited by the method of disease transmission. In particular, it is widely held that population reduction, while effective for controlling diseases that are subject to density-dependent (DD) transmission, is ineffective for controlling diseases that are subject to frequency-dependent (FD) transmission. We investigate control for horizontally transmitted diseases with FD transmission where the control is via culling or harvest that is non-selective with respect to infection and the population can compensate through DD recruitment or survival. Using a mathematical model, we show that culling or harvesting can eradicate the disease, even when transmission dynamics are FD. Eradication can be achieved under FD transmission when DD birth or recruitment induces compensatory growth of new, healthy individuals, which has the net effect of reducing disease prevalence by dilution. We also show that if harvest is used simultaneously with vaccination, and there is high enough transmission coefficient, application of both controls may be less efficient than vaccination alone. We illustrate the effects of these control approaches on disease prevalence for chronic wasting disease in deer where the disease is transmitted directly among deer and through the environment.     

The importance of culling in Johne's disease control

Johne's disease is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection and results in economic losses in the dairy industry. To control MAP transmission in herds, test-based culling has been recommended and immediate culling of high shedding animals is typically implemented. In this study, we quantified the effects of MAP control in US dairy herds, using the basic reproduction ratio R₀. The effectiveness of culling strategies was evaluated for good and poor herd management (low- and high-transmission rates, respectively) by a phase diagram approach. To establish a quantitative relationship between culling rates and test properties, we defined the average detection times for low and high shedding animals. The effects of various culling strategies and test characteristics, such as test sensitivity, test turnaround time, and testing interval, were analyzed. To understand the overall effect of model parameters on R₀, we performed global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. We also evaluated the effectiveness of culling only high shedding animals by comparing three test methods (fecal culture, fecal polymerase chain reaction, PCR, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA). Our study shows that, in the case of good herd management, culling of only high shedding animals may be effective in controlling MAP transmission. However, in the case of poor management, in addition to immediate culling of high shedding animals, culling of low shedding animals (based on the fecal culture test) will be necessary. Culling of low shedding animals may be delayed 6-12 months, however, if a shorter testing interval is applied. This study suggests that if farmers prefer culling only high shedding animals, faster MAP detection tests (such as the fecal PCR and ELISA) of higher sensitivity should be applied with high testing frequency, particularly on farms with poor management. Culling of infectious animals with a longer testing interval is generally not effective to control MAP.     

Culling-induced changes in badger (Meles meles) behaviour, social organisation and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis

In the UK, attempts since the 1970s to control the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle by culling a wildlife host, the European badger (Meles meles), have produced equivocal results. Culling-induced social perturbation of badger populations may lead to unexpected outcomes. We test predictions from the 'perturbation hypothesis', determining the impact of culling operations on badger populations, movement of surviving individuals and the influence on the epidemiology of bTB in badgers using data dervied from two study areas within the UK Government's Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT). Culling operations did not remove all individuals from setts, with between 34-43% of badgers removed from targeted social groups. After culling, bTB prevalence increased in badger social groups neighbouring removals, particularly amongst cubs. Seventy individual adult badgers were fitted with radio-collars, yielding 8,311 locational fixes from both sites between November 2001 and December 2003. Home range areas of animals surviving within removed groups increased by 43.5% in response to culling. Overlap between summer ranges of individuals from Neighbouring social groups in the treatment population increased by 73.3% in response to culling. The movement rate of individuals between social groups was low, but increased after culling, in Removed and Neighbouring social groups. Increased bTB prevalence in Neighbouring groups was associated with badger movements both into and out of these groups, although none of the moving individuals themselves tested positive for bTB. Significant increases in both the frequency of individual badger movements between groups and the emergence of bTB were observed in response to culling. However, no direct evidence was found to link the two phenomena. We hypothesise that the social disruption caused by culling may not only increase direct contact and thus disease transmission between surviving badgers, but may also increase social stress within the surviving population, causing immunosuppression and enhancing the expression of disease.     

Stochastic simulations of a multi-group compartmental model for Johne's disease on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention

Infection elimination may be an important goal of control programs. Only in stochastic infection models can true infection elimination be observed as a fadeout. The phenomena of fadeout and variable prevalence are important in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and these phenomena are essential to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures. To investigate the stochastic dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention, we developed a multi-group stochastic compartmental model (a continuous time Markov chain model) with both horizontal and vertical transmission. The stochastic model predicted fadeout and within-herd prevalence to have a large variance. Although test-based culling intervention generally decreased prevalence over time, it took longer than desired by producers to eliminate the endemic MAP infection from a herd. Uncertainty analysis showed that, using annual culture test and culling of only high shedders or culling of both low and high shedders with a 12-month delay in culling of low shedders, MAP infection persisted in many herds beyond 20 years. While using semi-annual culture test and culling of low and high shedders with a 6-month delay in culling of low shedders, MAP infection in many herds would be extinct within 20 years. Sensitivity analysis of the cumulative density function of fadeout suggested that combining test-based culling intervention and reduction of transmission rates through improved management between susceptible calves and shedding animals may be more effective than either alone in eliminating endemic MAP infection. We also discussed the effects of other factors such as herd size, heifer replacement, and adult cow infection on the probability of fadeout.     

Maximized virulence in a sterilizing pathogen: the anther-smut fungus and its co-evolved hosts

Host sterilization is a common feature of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Because host reproductive failure may free up resources for pathogen reproduction and transmission, theory predicts that selection on sterilizing pathogens will favour maximum virulence (i.e. complete sterilization). We examined patterns of infection in sexually transmitted anther-smut fungi (Microbotryum) on four of their host species in the Caryophyllaceae. Using controlled fungal matings and experimental inoculations, we compared disease expression in inoculations ranging from host-specific pathogens to hybrids and cross-species treatments. Our data support the existence of host-specific sibling species within the genus Microbotryum based on a low infection rate from cross-inoculations and reduced fitness for hybrid pathogens. These patterns of host specificity and reproductive isolation, however, were not absolute. We did observe some successful cross-species and hybrid infections, but the expression of disease was frequently incomplete, including only partial host sterilization and the failed dehiscence of pathogen spores. The prevalence of these maladapted disease phenotypes may greatly inhibit the emergence of novel host pathogen combinations. Infections by hybrid pathogen genotypes were intermediate, in terms of both infection rate and the normality of disease symptoms, between host-specific and cross-inoculated pathogens. In addition, the frequency with which hybrid and cross-inoculated anther-smut pathogens were able to infect but not sterilize new hosts supports the prediction that sterilizing STDs are under selection to maximize virulence in natural populations.     

The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease

The 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic was controlled by culling of infectious premises and pre-emptive culling intended to limit the spread of disease. Of the control strategies adopted, routine culling of farms that were contiguous to infected premises caused the most controversy. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of the culling of contiguous premises as performed in 2001 and a simulation study of the effects of this policy on reducing the number of farms affected by disease. Our simulation results support previous studies and show that a national policy of contiguous premises (CPs) culling leads to fewer farms losing livestock. The optimal national policy for controlling the 2001 epidemic is found to be the targeting of all contiguous premises, whereas for localized outbreaks in high animal density regions, more extensive fixed radius ring culling is optimal. Analysis of the 2001 data suggests that the lowest-risk CPs were generally prioritized for culling, however, even in this case, the policy is predicted to be effective. A sensitivity analysis and the development of a spatially heterogeneous policy show that the optimal culling level depends upon the basic reproductive ratio of the infection and the width of the dispersal kernel. These analyses highlight an important and probably quite general result: optimal control is highly dependent upon the distance over which the pathogen can be transmitted, the transmission rate of infection and local demography where the disease is introduced.     

Fertility control as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in south-west England: predictions from a spatial stochastic simulation model.

A spatial stochastic simulation model was used to assess the potential of fertility control, based on a yet-to-be-developed oral bait-delivered contraceptive directed at females, for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in south-west England. The contraceptive had a lifelong effect so that females rendered sterile in any particular year remained so for the rest of their lives. The efficacy of fertility control alone repeated annually for varying periods of time was compared with a single culling operation and integrated control involving an initial single cull followed by annually repeated fertility control. With fertility control alone, in no instance was the disease eradicated completely while a viable badger population (mean group size of at least one individual) was still maintained. Near eradication of the disease (less than 1% prevalence) combined with the survival of a minimum viable badger population was only achieved under a very limited set of conditions, either with high efficiency of control (95%) over a short time period (1-3 years) or a low efficiency of control (20%) over an intermediate time period (10-20 years). Under these conditions, it took more than 20 years for the disease to decline to such low levels. A single cull of 80% efficiency succeeded in near eradication of the disease (below 1% prevalence) after a period of 6-8 years, while still maintaining a viable badger population. Integrated strategies reduced disease prevalence more rapidly and to lower levels than culling alone, although the mean badger group size following the onset of control was smaller. Under certain integrated strategies, principally where a high initial cull (80%) was followed by fertility control over a short (1-3 year) time period, the disease could be completely eradicated while a viable badger population was maintained. However, even under the most favourable conditions of integrated control, it took on average more than 12 years following the onset of control for the disease to disappear completely from the badger population. These results show that whilst fertility control would not be a successful strategy for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers if used alone, it could be effective if used with culling as part of an integrated strategy. This type of integrated strategy is likely to be more effective in terms of disease eradication than a strategy employing culling alone. However, the high cost of developing a suitable fertility control agent, combined with the welfare and conservation implications, are significant factors which should be taken into account when considering its possible use as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in the UK.     

Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica

Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica--a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans--within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings--as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts--as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control.     

Culling-induced social perturbation in Eurasian badgers Meles meles and the management of TB in cattle: an analysis of a critical problem in applied ecology

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Badger culling has been employed for the control of TB in cattle in both countries, with varying results. Social perturbation of badger populations following culling has been proposed as an explanation for the failure of culling to consistently demonstrate significant reductions in cattle TB. Field studies indicate that culling badgers may result in increased immigration into culled areas, disruption of territoriality, increased ranging and mixing between social groups. Our analysis shows that some measures of sociality may remain significantly disrupted for up to 8 years after culling. This may have epidemiological consequences because previous research has shown that even in a relatively undisturbed badger population, movements between groups are associated with increases in the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection. This is consistent with the results from a large-scale field trial, which demonstrated decreased benefits of culling at the edges of culled areas, and an increase in herd breakdown rates in neighbouring cattle.     

Quantification of the effect of control strategies on classical swine fever epidemics

Emergency vaccination during an epidemic of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) has become a serious option because of the ethical problems of strategies with massive culling and the availability of a marker vaccine that reduces virus transmission. Here we present a model of between-herd CSFV transmission, which quantifies the effect of control strategies with and without vaccination. We estimate the model parameters from data of the Dutch CSFV epidemic of 1997/1998. With the model, a set of control strategies is compared, consisting of five control measures in several combinations. Consequently, the following general requirements of successful strategies can be formulated. First, to achieve extinction of a CSFV epidemic, transmission through transport should be prevented and the indirect virus transmission, i.e. all transmission not through animal contacts, should at least be halved, either by vaccination or by culling of the susceptible pig population. Second, to minimize the size and duration of an epidemic, the extinction requirements should be met quickly and indirect virus transmission should be reduced by far more than a half. Although the origin of the model parameters let the requirements in fact be only applicable for the south-eastern part of the Netherlands, it is argued that epidemics in other areas will not need stricter control strategies.     

Serology: a robust indicator of malaria transmission intensity?

To estimate the burden of malarial disease, and evaluate the likely effects of control strategies, requires reliable predictions of malaria transmission intensity. It has long been suggested that antimalarial antibody prevalences could provide a more accurate estimate of transmission intensity than traditional measures such as parasite prevalence or entomological inoculation rates, but there has been no systematic evaluation of this approach. Now, the availability of well characterized malarial antigens allows us to test whether serological measurements provide a practical method for estimating transmission. Here we present a suggested methodology, highlight the advantages and shortcomings of serological measurements of malaria transmission and identify areas in which further work is desirable.     

Genetic evidence that culling increases badger movement: implications for the spread of bovine tuberculosis

The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) to cattle. However, evidence suggests that attempts to reduce the spread of TB among cattle in Britain by culling badgers have mixed effects. A large-scale field experiment (the randomized badger culling trial, RBCT) showed that widespread proactive badger culling reduced the incidence of TB in cattle within culled areas but that TB incidence increased in adjoining areas. Additionally, localized reactive badger culling increased the incidence of TB in cattle. It has been suggested that culling-induced perturbation of badger social structure may increase individual movements and elevate the risk of disease transmission between badgers and cattle. Field studies support this hypothesis, by demonstrating increases in badger group ranges and the prevalence of TB infection in badgers following culling. However, more evidence on the effect of culling on badger movements is needed in order to predict the epidemiological consequences of this control strategy. Here, analysis of the genetic signatures of badger populations in the RBCT revealed increased dispersal following culling. While standard tests provided evidence for greater dispersal after culling, a novel method indicated that this was due to medium- and long-distance dispersal, in addition to previously reported increases in home-range size. Our results also indicated that, on average, badgers infected with M. bovis moved significantly farther than did uninfected badgers. A disease control strategy that included culling would need to take account of the potentially negative epidemiological consequences of increased badger dispersal.     

Eating yourself sick: transmission of disease as a function of foraging ecology

Species interactions may profoundly influence disease outbreaks. However, disease ecology has only begun to integrate interactions between hosts and their food resources (foraging ecology) despite that hosts often encounter their parasites while feeding. A zooplankton–fungal system illustrated this central connection between foraging and transmission. Using experiments that varied food density for Daphnia hosts, density of fungal spores and body size of Daphnia , we produced mechanistic yet general models for disease transmission rate based on broadly applicable components of feeding biology. Best performing models could explain why prevalence of infection declined at high food density and rose sharply as host size increased (a pattern echoed in nature). In comparison, the classic mass-action model for transmission performed quite poorly. These foraging-based models should broadly apply to systems in which hosts encounter parasites while eating, and they will catalyse future integration of the roles of Daphnia as grazer and host.     

Effects of culling on badger abundance: implications for tuberculosis control

Culling is often considered as a tool for controlling wildlife diseases that can also infect people or livestock. Culling European badgers Meles meles can cause both positive and negative effects on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. One factor likely to influence the outcome of different badger-culling strategies for cattle TB is the reduction in badger population density achieved. However, this reduction is difficult to measure because badgers, being nocturnal and fossorial, are difficult to count. Here, we use indices of badger abundance to measure the population impacts of two culling strategies tested in Britain. The densities of badger setts and latrines recorded before culling were correlated with the densities of badgers captured on initial culls, suggesting that both were indices of actual badger abundance. Widespread 'proactive' culling was associated with a 73% reduction in the density of badger latrines, a 69% reduction in the density of active burrows and a 73% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers. This population reduction was achieved by a coordinated effort entailing widespread and repeated trapping over several years. However, this strategy caused only modest reductions in cattle TB incidence in culled areas and elevated incidence in neighbouring unculled areas. Localized 'reactive' culling caused a 26% reduction in latrine density, a 32% reduction in active burrow density and a 10% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers, but apparently increased the incidence of cattle TB. These results indicate that the relationship between badger population reduction and TB transmission to cattle is strongly non-linear, probably because culling prompts changes in badger behaviour that influence transmission rates. These findings raise serious questions about the capacity of badger culling to contribute to the control of cattle TB in Britain.     

A comparison of fertility control and lethal control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers: the impact of perturbation induced transmission.

In this paper we use mathematical modelling to consider the broad advantages and disadvantages of fertility control over lethal control for bovine tuberculosis in badger populations. We use a deliberately simple model, attempting to capture only the key transmission processes. The model is parametrized with reference to the long-term Woodchester Park study. Estimates of mortality rate from this study suggest no significant extra mortality risk for animals with evidence of infection as indicated by the presence of anti-Mycobacterium bovis antibodies or M. bovis isolation. We find that large reductions in prevalence are sometimes the consequence of only moderate reductions in population numbers. If we assume that the act of control does not in itself affect transmission rates, then as far as eradication is concerned, both fertility control and mortality control operate through the same epidemiological mechanism, the removal of susceptibles: if one is in principle capable of keeping a population low enough to be infection free then so is the other. It is necessary to continue either form of control at regular intervals to maintain a constant level of infection in the long term. If control were to be stopped, return to precontrol levels of badger population and infection prevalence would be expected within a few years. Fertility control is less effective in reducing population density than lethal control since it can only act, at maximum, to remove one age cohort per year. It is also less effective in reducing transmission as it can only ever remove susceptibles, while lethal control also removes infectious badgers. However, if the social disturbance caused by lethal control does in fact increase contact rates for the remaining infectious badgers, the relative efficacies of the two strategies become a great deal less clear. While we have no quantitative data on the extent to which social perturbation does act to promote transmission, model simulations show that it is possible to develop plausible scenarios in which the lethal control may actually act to increase the absolute numbers of animals infected, while reducing the number of uninfected animals to very low numbers.     

React or wait: which optimal culling strategy to control infectious diseases in wildlife

We applied optimal control theory to an SI epidemic model to identify optimal culling strategies for diseases management in wildlife. We focused on different forms of the objective function, including linear control, quadratic control, and control with limited amount of resources. Moreover, we identified optimal solutions under different assumptions on disease-free host dynamics, namely: self-regulating logistic growth, Malthusian growth, and the case of negligible demography. We showed that the correct characterization of the disease-free host growth is crucial for defining optimal disease control strategies. By analytical investigations of the model with negligible demography, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy for the linear control can be either to cull at the maximum rate at the very beginning of the epidemic (reactive culling) when the culling cost is low, or never to cull, when culling cost is high. On the other hand, in the cases of quadratic control or limited resources, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy is always reactive. Numerical analyses for hosts with logistic growth showed that, in the case of linear control, the optimal strategy is always reactive when culling cost is low. In contrast, if the culling cost is high, the optimal strategy is to delay control, i.e. not to cull at the onset of the epidemic. Finally, we showed that for diseases with the same basic reproduction number delayed control can be optimal for acute infections, i.e. characterized by high disease-induced mortality and fast dynamics, while reactive control can be optimal for chronic ones.     

牛结核病的传播特点和风险因素及防控

牛结核病是一种世界分布的人畜共患传染病,被世界动物卫生组织列为法定报告疾病。其传播风险影响着畜牧业持续发展和人类的健康。本文概述了牛结核病的宿主范围、传播特点、风险因素及其防控措施等方面,旨在为我国牛结核病疫情传播和预防控制提供理论研究。     

鼠类不育控制的生态学基础

（１）不育控制是与传统的单一化学灭杀截然不同的鼠害防治策略,它着重于降低种群生育率来达到控制鼠类数量的目的。（２）传统不育控制在不育个体对生育个体的竞争性繁殖干扰方面注意不够,低估了不育控制的潜力。（３）本文依据生态学原理,经过数学推理和分析后认为,即使在不考虑竞争性繁殖干扰的情况下,不育控制基本上可以达到同样水平单纯灭杀的控制效果;若再考虑到不育个体的竞争性繁殖干扰作用,不育控制的实际效果将明显     

Emergency rabies control in a community of two high-density hosts

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Rabies is a fatal viral disease that potentially can affect all mammals. Terrestrial rabies is not present in the United Kingdom and has been eliminated from Western Europe. Nevertheless the possibility remains that rabies could be introduced to England, where it would find two potentially suitable hosts, red foxes and badgers. With the aim to analyse the spread and emergency control of rabies in this two species host community, a simulation model was constructed. Different control strategies involving anti-rabies vaccination and population culling were developed, considering control application rates, spatial extent and timing. These strategies were evaluated for efficacy and feasibility to control rabies in hypothetical rural areas in the South of England immediately after a disease outbreak. RESULTS: The model confirmed that both fox and badger populations, separately, were competent hosts for the spread of rabies. Realistic vaccination levels were not sufficient to control rabies in high-density badger populations. The combined species community was a very strong rabies host. However, disease spread within species appeared to be more important than cross-species infection. Thus, the drivers of epidemiology depend on the potential of separate host species to sustain the disease. To control a rabies outbreak in the two species, both species had to be targeted. Realistic and robust control strategies involved vaccination of foxes and badgers, but also required badger culling. Although fox and badger populations in the UK are exceptionally dense, an outbreak of rabies can be controlled with a higher than 90% chance, if control response is quick and follows a strict regime. This requires surveillance and forceful and repeated control campaigns. In contrast, an uncontrolled rabies outbreak in the South of England would quickly develop into a strong epizootic involving tens of thousands of rabid foxes and badgers. CONCLUSIONS: If populations of both host species are sufficiently large, epizootics are driven by within-species transmission, while cross-species-infection appears to be of minor importance. Thus, the disease control strategy has to target both host populations.     

Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R(0), may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.