Bushman birth spacing: Direct tests of some simple predictions

Blurton Jones and Sibly (1978) developed a model of costs (weight of food and baby carried while foraging) of !Kung women's reproduction under ecological-economic constraints that were described by Lee (1972). Predictions are drawn from this model and tested on Howell's (1979) data from reproductive histories of 172 individual women.Women were rated on a scale of dependence on bush or cattlepost foods. The ratings were compared with what is known about the places at which the women gave birth to their children. Agreement was good and the population was divided into two groups for study: 65 women most dependent on bush foods and 70 women substantially dependent on agricultural produce. Thirty-seven women of uncertain or intermediate status were omitted.As predicted by the model, among the women who were dependent on bush foods: (1) first interbirth intervals (IBI) were shorter than were later IBI; (2) the survivorship of children in first IBIs was not strongly related to length of IBI, with shorter IBI giving as good survivorship as longer IBI; (3) IBIs lengthen as the number of surviving children increases, until the fourth child; (4) after the fourth child IBIs do not differ significantly although they tend to be shorter (contrary to the prediction, a null hypothesis whose statistical support is consequently poor); (5) for IBIs after the first IBI, mortality increased markedly as IBI decreased; (6) mortality was even more closely related to backloads entailed by each IBI, as calculated by Blurton Jones and Sibly (1978); (7) mortality was less closely related to backloads calculated from an alternative version of the model from which weight of food was excluded; (8) as reported by Howell (1979), a new pregnancy followed rapidly after the death of the preceeding child but (9) as predicted, a new pregnancy did not follow so fast after the death of older children; (10) for the cattlepost women IBIs were shorter than for women dependent mainly on bush foods; and (11) there was no significant relationship between IBI and mortality for the cattlepost women, and mortality at short IBI was lower than in bush women.The assumption that the benefit accruing from more births will be balanced against the costs (costs to survivorship assumed to result from the work entailed by caring for each child) was successful in giving many predictions confirmed by the data. The significance and limitations of this “optimization” study are discussed.     

A dynamic framework for the study of optimal birth intervals reveals the importance of sibling competition and mortality risks

Human reproductive patterns have been well studied, but the mechanisms by which physiology, ecology and existing kin interact to affect the life history need quantification. Here, we create a model to investigate how age‐specific interbirth intervals adapt to environmental and intrinsic mortality, and how birth patterns can be shaped by competition and help between siblings. The model provides a flexible framework for studying the processes underlying human reproductive scheduling. We developed a state‐based optimality model to determine age‐dependent and family‐dependent sets of reproductive strategies, including the state of the mother and her offspring. We parameterized the model with realistic mortality curves derived from five human populations. Overall, optimal birth intervals increase until the age of 30 after which they remain relatively constant until the end of the reproductive lifespan. Offspring helping each other does not have much effect on birth intervals. Increasing infant and senescent mortality in different populations decreases interbirth intervals. We show that sibling competition and infant mortality interact to lengthen interbirth intervals. In lower‐mortality populations, intense sibling competition pushes births further apart. Varying the adult risk of mortality alone has no effect on birth intervals between populations; competition between offspring drives the differences in birth intervals only when infant mortality is low. These results are relevant to understanding the demographic transition, because our model predicts that sibling competition becomes an important determinant of optimal interbirth intervals only when mortality is low, as in post‐transition societies. We do not predict that these effects alone can select for menopause.     

A generalized Friedman test for data defined by intervals

If observations are restricted in such a way that only intervals covering the true but hidden values are known—situations found in clinical studies or analyzing laboratory data-standard nonpara-metric procedures fail. The present paper suggests the use of generalized Friedman tests, if the sample consists of nk observations, with one observation from each of k treatments in each of in blocks. Furthermore the proposed test enables Friedman-type analyses of censored data. An example is given and a computer program facilitating the use of the test is introduced.     

Lactation and fertility: an examination of nursing and interbirth intervals in cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus o. oedipus)

Breeding records from a colony of Saguinus o. oedipus were examined to determine the influence of nursing on the return to a fertile status in adult females. The overall interbirth interval (IBI) was 208.5 +/- 16.3 days. Nursing status (nursing vs. non-nursing) and number of infants nursed (0, 1, or 2) did not influence IBI. The lack of effects of nursing on fertility appears to be a general trait in callitrichid primates.     

Honeyeater foraging: A test of optimal foraging theory

Honeyeaters (Meliphagidae) were observed foraging for nectar from Lambertia formosa inflorescences, each of which has seven flowers. The frequency distribution of numbers of flowers probed per visit to an inflorescence was found to be bimodal, with one peak at two and the other at seven. It is hypothesized that this frequency distribution results from a rule of departure from inflorescences that maximizes the net rate of energy gain. Patterns of nectar distribution were determined for a large sample of inflorescences. In addition the extent to which the honeyeaters re-probe flowers during a visit to an inflorescence was estimated. From these data and from field measurements of the times required by the honeyeaters to perform the various foraging behaviours, computer simulations of honeyeater foraging were constructed. These simulations led in turn to optimal frequency distributions of numbers of flowers probed per inflorescence that were bimodal but had peaks at 1 and 7 instead of 2 and 7. Although the observed and predicted behaviour were consequently similar, the difference between them was nevertheless significant. This difference could have been due to the birds' transient occupancy of the study area.     

Reduced birth intervals following the birth of children with long-term illness: evidence supporting a conditional evolved response

Human birth interval length is indicative of the level of parental investment that a child will receive: a short interval following birth means that parental resources must be split with a younger sibling during a period when the older sibling remains highly dependent on their parents. From a life-history theoretical perspective, it is likely that there are evolved mechanisms that serve to maximize fitness depending on context. One context that would be expected to result in short birth intervals, and lowered parental investment, is after a child with low expected fitness is born. Here, data drawn from a longitudinal British birth cohort study were used to test whether birth intervals were shorter following the birth of a child with a long-term health problem. Data on the timing of 4543 births were analysed using discrete-time event history analysis. The results were consistent with the hypothesis: birth intervals were shorter following the birth of a child diagnosed by a medical professional with a severe but non-fatal medical condition. Covariates in the analysis were also significantly associated with birth interval length: births of twins or multiple births, and relationship break-up were associated with significantly longer birth intervals.     

A canopy-scale test of the optimal water-use hypothesis

Common empirical models of stomatal conductivity often incorporate a sensitivity of stomata to the rate of leaf photosynthesis. Such a sensitivity has been predicted on theoretical terms by Cowan and Farquhar, who postulated that stomata should adjust dynamically to maximize photosynthesis for a given water loss.
In this study, we implemented the Cowan and Farquhar hypothesis of optimal stomatal conductivity into a canopy gas exchange model, and predicted the diurnal and daily variability of transpiration for a savanna site in the wet–dry tropics of northern Australia. The predicted transpiration dynamics were then compared with observations at the site using the eddy covariance technique. The observations were also used to evaluate two alternative approaches: constant conductivity and a tuned empirical model.
The model based on the optimal water-use hypothesis performed better than the one based on constant stomatal conductivity, and at least as well as the tuned empirical model. This suggests that the optimal water-use hypothesis is useful for modelling canopy gas exchange, and that it can reduce the need for model parameterization.     

Identification of optimal anion spacing for anti-HIV activity in a series of cosalane tetracarboxylates

The binding of the anti-HIV agent cosalane to CD4 is thought to involve ionic interactions of negatively charged carboxylates of the ligand with positively charged residues on the surface of the protein. An investigation of the optimal anion distances for anti-HIV activity in a series of cosalane tetracarboxylate analogues has been completed, and maximal activity results when the two proximal and the two distal carboxylates are separated by eight atoms.     

Confidence intervals for a normal mean following a group sequential test

This paper presents methodology based on the likelihood-ratio test, developed for construction of confidence intervals for a normal mean, following a group sequential test. Examples show that the confidence intervals produced by this method have accurate nominal probability of coverage and have generally shorter average length than that produced by Tsiatis, Rosner, and Mehta (1984, Biometrics 40, 797-803).     

Analysis of birth intervals in a non-contracepting Indian population: an evolutionary ecological approach

Reproductive strategies are related to ecological constraints. This paper examines data on early birth spacing in a scheduled caste, Bengali-speaking, non-contracepting population of the Karimganj district of southern Assam, India, taking an evolutionary ecological perspective. It is found that on average birth intervals closed by boy-boy are longer than those closed by girl-girl. Birth spacing tends to be longer among upper-income and Craftsman sub-caste mothers. The presence of a 'grandmother' in the household shortens spacing. These findings are compatible with an evolutionary-based reproductive decision-making process.     

Set-back model of division-synchronization: optimal spacing of thermal shocks that accelerate cell cycling.

Monte Carlo simulations have been used to predict the dependence of synchrony on the timing of periodic thermal shocks that synchronize division by cell cycle set-backs. In many of the simulations each set-back augmented the subsequent rate of progression of individual cells through the division cycle. In this study a subtle error in previous synchronization simulations was corrected. The simulations show that whether or not set-backs affect subsequent cell-cycling rates the degree of synchrony attained is acutely dependent on the spacing of thermal shocks administered once per division. Set-back-dependent increases in division-cycling rates usually decrease the difference between maximum and minimum synchrony. According to the simulations the more cell cycle rates between shocks are augmented by set-back the shorter the optimum time span between shocks. Whether or not set-backs affect subsequent division-cycling rates the intershock time span providing maximum synchrony allows cell number to precisely double.     

Reexamination of interpregnancy intervals and subsequent birth outcomes: Evidence from U.S. linked birth/infant death records

Abstract

This study examines the net effects of the interpregnancy interval (time period from one birth to the next pregnancy) on the risks of preterm birth, intrauterine growth retardation, and infant mortality, for blacks and whites separately, using data from 1991 U.S. Linked Birth‐Infant Death files. Results show that short (less than 7 months) and long (61+ months) intervals between pregnancies raise the risk of preterm birth and intrauterine growth retardation for both race groups, though the increase in risk is generally less than 30 per cent. Short intervals also raise (slightly) the risk of infant mortality after controlling for birthweight and gestational age.     

Confidence intervals for the mean of diagnostic test charge data containing zeros

In this paper, we consider the problem of interval estimation for the mean of diagnostic test charges. Diagnostic test charge data may contain zero values, and the nonzero values can often be modeled by a log-normal distribution. Under such a model, we propose three different interval estimation procedures: a percentile-t bootstrap interval based on sufficient statistics and two likelihood-based confidence intervals. For theoretical properties, we show that the two likelihood-based one-sided confidence intervals are only first-order accurate and that the bootstrap-based one-sided confidence interval is second-order accurate. For two-sided confidence intervals, all three proposed methods are second-order accurate. A simulation study in finite-sample sizes suggests all three proposed intervals outperform a widely used minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE)-based interval except for the case of one-sided lower end-point intervals when the skewness is very small. Among the proposed one-sided intervals, the bootstrap interval has the best coverage accuracy. For the two-sided intervals, when the sample size is small, the bootstrap method still yields the best coverage accuracy unless the skewness is very small, in which case the bias-corrected ML method has the best accuracy. When the sample size is large, all three proposed intervals have similar coverage accuracy. Finally, we analyze with the proposed methods one real example assessing diagnostic test charges among older adults with depression.     

A starvation test to determine optimal salinities for larval freshwater prawns,Macrobrachium rosenbergii

• 1.1. A starvation test was conducted in small beakers with stage 1 (S1) and stage 2 (S2) Macrobrachium rosenbergii larvae to determine optimal salinities.
• 2.2. Experiments were first performed with S2 larvae at 13 ppt to identify a suitable medium made with artificial sea salts.
• 3.3. A broad-range (0–35 ppt) and a subsequent narrow-range (9–16 ppt) salinity experiment with S2 larvae were used to identify 13 ppt as the optimal salinity, with 12 ppt as the next best; this agrees well with most previous estimates of optimal salinities for rearing larvae.
• 4.4. S1 larvae were also tested in a narrow-range salinity experiment but were not used further because, unlike starved S2 larvae, they molted during the experiment.
• 5.5. Identification of the optimal salinity was not affected by 50% daily water exchange or by bright light.
• 6.6. Exposure of larvae to three different salinities—7, 13 and 19 ppt—during S1 influenced the width of the optimal salinity range for S2 larvae.

     

Pilot test of prenatal surveillance for birth defects in South Texas

BACKGROUND: The Texas Birth Defects Registry (TBDR) does not access prenatal diagnostic facilities to ascertain cases. Objectives of the study were to determine how many cases may be missing from the registry as a result, and to assess the feasibility and utility of prenatal surveillance for birth defects, through a pilot test in one region of Texas. METHODS: A trained abstractor reviewed medical records of all patients with abnormal ultrasound findings during 2004 in all prenatal diagnostic facilities in Texas Health Region 11 (n = 6 facilities). When birth defects were prenatally detected, demographic and diagnostic data were abstracted. Prenatal abstractions were matched to cases in the TBDR. Those that did not match to registry cases were matched to vital records to determine where and when the pregnancy ended; delivery hospital medical records were reviewed for these cases. RESULTS: Approximately 760 patient charts were reviewed at prenatal diagnostic facilities and 365 were abstracted. Of these, 165 (45%) matched to cases in the TBDR. Delivery medical records were located and reviewed for 177 prenatal abstractions, with 170 (47%) indicating at delivery no defects monitored by the registry. Delivery records for one (0.3%) prenatal abstraction were not found by the hospital. Date and place of delivery were unknown for 22 (6%) prenatal abstractions. Only eight additional infants and fetuses (one twin pair) eligible for the registry were identified. CONCLUSIONS: For Texas Health Service Region 11, it is not necessary to conduct surveillance in prenatal diagnostic facilities, and to do so would be very labor-intensive.