Coastal Fisheries in the Eastern Baltic Sea (Gulf of Finland) and Its Basin from the 15 to the Early 20th Centuries

The paper describes and analyzes original data, extracted from historical documents and scientific surveys, related to Russian fisheries in the southeastern part of the Gulf of Finland and its inflowing rivers during the 15- early 20^th centuries. The data allow tracing key trends in fisheries development and in the abundance of major commercial species. In particular, results showed that, over time, the main fishing areas moved from the middle part of rivers downstream towards and onto the coastal sea. Changes in fishing patterns were closely interrelated with changes in the abundance of exploited fish. Anadromous species, such as Atlantic sturgeon, Atlantic salmon, brown trout, whitefish, vimba bream, smelt, lamprey, and catadromous eel were the most important commercial fish in the area because they were abundant, had high commercial value and were easily available for fishing in rivers. Due to intensive exploitation and other human-induced factors, populations of most of these species had declined notably by the early 20^th century and have now lost commercial significance. The last sturgeon was caught in 1996, and today only smelt and lamprey support small commercial fisheries. According to historical sources, catches of freshwater species such as roach, ide, pike, perch, ruffe and burbot regularly occurred, in some areas exceeding half of the total catch, but they were not as important as migrating fish and no clear trends in abundance are apparent. Of documented marine catch, Baltic herring appeared in the 16^th century, but did not become commercially significant until the 19^th century. From then until now herring have been the dominant catch.     

Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread,Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations

Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980’s and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960’s. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20^th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.     

Global Patterns and Drivers of Avian Extinctions at the Species and Subspecies Level

Birds have long fascinated scientists and travellers, so their distribution and abundance through time have been better documented than those of other organisms. Many bird species are known to have gone extinct, but information on subspecies extinctions has never been synthesised comprehensively. We reviewed the timing, spatial patterns, trends and causes of avian extinctions on a global scale, identifying 279 ultrataxa (141 monotypic species and 138 subspecies of polytypic species) that have gone extinct since 1500. Species extinctions peaked in the early 20^th century, then fell until the mid 20^th century, and have subsequently accelerated. However, extinctions of ultrataxa peaked in the second half of the 20^th century. This trend reflects a consistent decline in the rate of extinctions on islands since the beginning of the 20^th century, but an acceleration in the extinction rate on continents. Most losses (78.7% of species and 63.0% of subspecies) occurred on oceanic islands. Geographic foci of extinctions include the Hawaiian Islands (36 taxa), mainland Australia and islands (29 taxa), the Mascarene Islands (27 taxa), New Zealand (22 taxa) and French Polynesia (19 taxa). The major proximate drivers of extinction for both species and subspecies are invasive alien species (58.2% and 50.7% of species and subspecies, respectively), hunting (52.4% and 18.8%) and agriculture, including non-timber crops and livestock farming (14.9% and 31.9%). In general, the distribution and drivers of subspecific extinctions are similar to those for species extinctions. However, our finding that, when subspecies are considered, the extinction rate has accelerated in recent decades is both novel and alarming.     

Radical changes in the Wadden Sea fauna and flora over the last 2,000 years

Humans have interacted with the Wadden Sea since its origin 7,500 years ago. However, exploitation, habitat alteration and pollution have strongly increased since the Middle Ages, affecting abundance and distribution of many marine mammals, birds, fish, invertebrates and plants. Large whales and some large birds disappeared more than 500 years ago. Most small whales, seals, birds, large fish and oysters were severely reduced by the late 19th and early 20th centuries, leading to the collapse of several traditional fisheries. In the 20th century, conservation efforts have enabled some breeding birds and seals to recover. But other species declined further due to continuing exploitation, habitat destruction, pollution and eutrophication. Moreover, complex three-dimensional habitats such as oyster banks, Sabellaria reefs and subtidal eelgrass beds have been lost completely. In contrast, several opportunistic species such as gulls, polychaetes, green algae and exotic invaders increased during the 20th century. Taken together, multiple human impacts have caused dramatic losses of large predators and habitat-building species in the Wadden Sea over the last 500 years. Although still of high natural value and global importance, the Wadden Sea is a fundamentally changed ecosystem. On the other hand, reduced hunting pressure, increased habitat protection and reduced river pollution have enabled the recent recovery of several species and an increase in environmental quality. These successes, together with a historical vision of what was once possible, should guide current and future conservation, restoration and management efforts towards a more sustainable interaction between man and the sea.     

The Environmental Impact of Cambodia's Ancient City of Mahendraparvata (Phnom Kulen)

The Khmer kingdom, whose capital was at Angkor from the 9^th to the 14^th-15^th century, was founded in 802 by king Jayavarman II in a city called Mahandraparvata, on Phnom Kulen. Virtually nothing more is known of Mahandraparvata from the epigraphic sources, but systematic archaeological survey and excavation have identified an array of cultural features that point to a more extensive and enduring settlement than the historical record indicates. Recent remote sensing data have revolutionized our view, revealing the remains of a city with a complex and spatially extensive network of urban infrastructure. Here, we present a record of vegetation change and soil erosion from within that urban network, dating from the 8^th century CE. Our findings indicate approximately 400 years of intensive land use, punctuated by discrete periods of intense erosion beginning in the mid 9^th century and ending in the late 11^th century. A marked change in water management practices is apparent from the 12^th century CE, with implications for water supply to Angkor itself. This is the first indication that settlement on Mahendraparvata was not only extensive, but also intensive and enduring, with a marked environmental impact.     

Status of the Black muntjac, Muntiacus crinifrons, in eastern China

A detailed survey was conducted to show the relative abundance and current known distribution of the Black muntjac population. New information on the distribution, abundance and status of Black muntjac shows it has a small population within a restricted geographical area and habitat range, which covers an area of approximately 76 , 500 km². The relative abundance of the Black muntjac at different locations was divided into three categories, depending on the percentage composition in hunting returns; these correlated with the amount of habitat destruction and hunting pressure. With the additional consideration of reproductive performance, the Black muntjac is doing well in some suitable areas. Data from historical records, and the new discovery of an isolated population in 1980 and 1981 indicated that habitat destruction and hunting greatly reduced the range and numbers of Black muntjac in the last hundred years. The paper also suggests that the current status of the Black muntjac should be given in the Red Data Book as a rare species.     

Population Structure of Brazil Nut (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bertholletia excelsa,</Emphasis> Lecythidaceae) Stands in Two Areas with Different Occupation Histories in the Brazilian Amazon

Here we hypothesize that the intensity of disturbances caused by human activities in Brazil nut stands (castanhais) is positively related with the regeneration of Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa H.B.K., Lecythidaceae) and consequently with a younger population structure of this species. In order to test this hypothesis we compared the population structure of Brazil nut trees in two areas of the Brazilian Amazon with different histories of land usage by humans. Archeological and historical data suggest that the region surrounding the Trombetas River was densely occupied in pre-Columbian times and experienced depopulation after European contact with Amerindian populations, especially in the 16^th century. The 25 Brazil nut stands sampled in this region were dominated by old B. excelsa trees and had scarce recruitment in the understory. These very mature stands likely owe their origins to the interval between the depopulation of the indigenous peoples in the 16^th-17^th centuries and the establishment of quilombos at the beginning of the 19^th century. The second study area was in the vicinity of the Madeira River (Capanã Grande Lake), where the castanhais were more accessible and disturbed. In this site, a younger population structure and abundant regeneration of B. excelsa were observed in the 10 sampled stands. Historical data from this region indicate that indigenous populations were replaced gradually beginning in the 18^th century, with no evidence of severe depopulation. We suggest that the different historical and contemporary land use patterns contributed to the current contrasting population structures of the castanhais at the two locations. The data also support the idea that the castanhais, even the ones considered to be pristine and “native” forests, result from anthropogenic influences. We found no evidence to support restrictions on seed harvesting as a means to improve regeneration rates of Brazil nut stands.     

Integrated ecological research of catchment-lake ecosystems in the Bohemian Forest (Central Europe): A preface

The Bohemian Forest (?umava, Böhmerwald) is situated in Central Europe and is among the most acidified lake districts in the world. Deposition of S and N compounds in the area rapidly increased between 1950 and 1980, and reached a maximum in the 1980s. During the 1990s, acid deposition decreased substantially, and current levels are comparable to the early 20^th century for SO ₄ ^2? and NH ₄ ⁺ , and to the mid 1960s for NO ₃ ^? . These changes in acid deposition have led to a partial recovery of the Bohemian Forest lakes. This paper provides an overview of previous research, and details on the organization and aims of current research on the Bohemian Forest lakes. Available historical data and regular monitoring (since 1984) provide a valuable background for long-term ecological research of the catchment-lake ecosystems that currently focuses on (i) chemical reversal and biological recovery of the lakes, (ii) acidification impacts on in-lake nutrient cycling, (iii) climatic effects on water chemistry, and (iv) catchment processes, including soil biogeochemistry and acidification impacts on vegetation.     

Quantifying Recent Ecological Changes in Remote Lakes of North America and Greenland Using Sediment Diatom Assemblages

Background

Although arctic lakes have responded sensitively to 20^th-century climate change, it remains uncertain how these ecological transformations compare with alpine and montane-boreal counterparts over the same interval. Furthermore, it is unclear to what degree other forcings, including atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr), have participated in recent regime shifts. Diatom-based paleolimnological syntheses offer an effective tool for retrospective assessments of past and ongoing changes in remote lake ecosystems.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We synthesized 52 dated sediment diatom records from lakes in western North America and west Greenland, spanning broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and representing alpine (n = 15), arctic (n = 20), and forested boreal-montane (n = 17) ecosystems. Diatom compositional turnover (β-diversity) during the 20^th century was estimated using Detrended Canonical Correspondence Analysis (DCCA) for each site and compared, for cores with sufficiently robust chronologies, to both the 19^th century and the prior ∼250 years (Little Ice Age). For both arctic and alpine lakes, β-diversity during the 20^th century is significantly greater than the previous 350 years, and increases with both latitude and altitude. Because no correlation is apparent between 20^th-century diatom β-diversity and any single physical or limnological parameter (including lake and catchment area, maximum depth, pH, conductivity, [NO₃ ⁻], modeled Nr deposition, ambient summer and winter air temperatures, and modeled temperature trends 1948–2008), we used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to summarize the amplitude of recent changes in relationship to lake pH, lake:catchment area ratio, modeled Nr deposition, and recent temperature trends.

Conclusions/Significance

The ecological responses of remote lakes to post-industrial environmental changes are complex. However, two regions reveal concentrations of sites with elevated 20^th-century diatom β-diversity: the Arctic where temperatures are increasing most rapidly, and mid-latitude alpine lakes impacted by high Nr deposition rates. We predict that remote lakes will continue to shift towards new ecological states in the Anthropocene, particularly in regions where these two forcings begin to intersect geographically.     

Towards an Absolute Chronology for the Aegean Iron Age: New Radiocarbon Dates from Lefkandi,Kalapodi and Corinth

The relative chronology of the Aegean Iron Age is robust. It is based on minute stylistic changes in the Submycenaean, Protogeometric and Geometric styles and their sub-phases. Yet, the absolute chronology of the time-span between the final stages of Late Helladic IIIC in the late second millennium BCE and the archaic colonization of Italy and Sicily toward the end of the 8^th century BCE lacks archaeological contexts that can be directly related to events carrying absolute dates mentioned in Egyptian/Near Eastern historical sources, or to well-dated Egyptian/Near Eastern rulers. The small number of radiocarbon dates available for this time span is not sufficient to establish an absolute chronological sequence. Here we present a new set of short-lived radiocarbon dates from the sites of Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth in Greece. We focus on the crucial transition from the Submycenaean to the Protogeometric periods. This transition is placed in the late 11^th century BCE according to the Conventional Aegean Chronology and in the late 12^th century BCE according to the High Aegean Chronology. Our results place it in the second half of the 11^th century BCE.     

Local Ecological Knowledge and Scientific Data Reveal Overexploitation by Multigear Artisanal Fisheries in the Southwestern Atlantic

In the last decades, a number of studies based on historical records revealed the diversity loss in the oceans and human-induced changes to marine ecosystems. These studies have improved our understanding of the human impacts in the oceans. They also drew attention to the shifting baseline syndrome and the importance of assessing appropriate sources of data in order to build the most reliable environmental baseline. Here we amassed information from artisanal fishermen''s local ecological knowledge, fisheries landing data and underwater visual census to assess the decline of fish species in Southeastern Brazil. Interviews with 214 fishermen from line, beach seine and spearfishing revealed a sharp decline in abundance of the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix, the groupers Epinephelus marginatus, Mycteroperca acutirostris, M. bonaci and M. microlepis, and large parrotfishes in the past six decades. Fisheries landing data from a 16-year period support the decline of bluefish as pointed by fishermen''s local knowledge, while underwater visual census campaigns show reductions in groupers'' abundance and a sharp population decline of the Brazilian endemic parrotfish Scarus trispinosus. Despite the marked decline of these fisheries, younger and less experienced fishermen recognized fewer species as overexploited and fishing sites as depleted than older and more experienced fishermen, indicating the occurrence of the shifting baseline syndrome. Here we show both the decline of multigear fisheries catches – combining anecdotal and scientific data – as well as changes in environmental perceptions over generations of fishermen. Managing ocean resources requires looking into the past, and into traditional knowledge, bringing historical baselines to the present and improving public awareness.     

The Population Decline and Extinction of Darwin’s Frogs

Darwin’s frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum) are two species of mouth-brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina. Here, we present evidence on the extent of declines, current distribution and conservation status of Rhinoderma spp.; including information on abundance, habitat and threats to extant Darwin’s frog populations. All known archived Rhinoderma specimens were examined in museums in North America, Europe and South America. Extensive surveys were carried out throughout the historical ranges of R. rufum and R. darwinii from 2008 to 2012. Literature review and location data of 2,244 archived specimens were used to develop historical distribution maps for Rhinoderma spp. Based on records of sightings, optimal linear estimation was used to estimate whether R. rufum can be considered extinct. No extant R. rufum was found and our modelling inferred that this species became extinct in 1982 (95% CI, 1980–2000). Rhinoderma darwinii was found in 36 sites. All populations were within native forest and abundance was highest in Chiloé Island, when compared with Coast, Andes and South populations. Estimated population size and density (five populations) averaged 33.2 frogs/population (range, 10.2–56.3) and 14.9 frogs/100 m² (range, 5.3–74.1), respectively. Our results provide further evidence that R. rufum is extinct and indicate that R. darwinii has declined to a much greater degree than previously recognised. Although this species can still be found across a large part of its historical range, remaining populations are small and severely fragmented. Conservation efforts for R. darwinii should be stepped up and the species re-classified as Endangered.     

Molecular Identification of Bacteria by Total Sequence Screening: Determining the Cause of Death in Ancient Human Subjects

Research of ancient pathogens in ancient human skeletons has been mainly carried out on the basis of one essential historical or archaeological observation, permitting specific pathogens to be targeted. Detection of ancient human pathogens without such evidence is more difficult, since the quantity and quality of ancient DNA, as well as the environmental bacteria potentially present in the sample, limit the analyses possible. Using human lung tissue and/or teeth samples from burials in eastern Siberia, dating from the end of 17^th to the 19^th century, we propose a methodology that includes the: 1) amplification of all 16S rDNA gene sequences present in each sample; 2) identification of all bacterial DNA sequences with a degree of identity ≥95%, according to quality criteria; 3) identification and confirmation of bacterial pathogens by the amplification of the rpoB gene; and 4) establishment of authenticity criteria for ancient DNA. This study demonstrates that from teeth samples originating from ancient human subjects, we can realise: 1) the correct identification of bacterial molecular sequence signatures by quality criteria; 2) the separation of environmental and pathogenic bacterial 16S rDNA sequences; 3) the distribution of bacterial species for each subject and for each burial; and 4) the characterisation of bacteria specific to the permafrost. Moreover, we identified three pathogens in different teeth samples by 16S rDNA sequence amplification: Bordetella sp., Streptococcus pneumoniae and Shigella dysenteriae. We tested for the presence of these pathogens by amplifying the rpoB gene. For the first time, we confirmed sequences from Bordetella pertussis in the lungs of an ancient male Siberian subject, whose grave dated from the end of the 17^th century to the early 18^th century.     

Estimating red deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus elaphus</Emphasis>) population size in the Southern Black Forest: the role of hunting in population control

Numerous studies have addressed the question of whether hunting is capable of limiting the abundance of ungulates in the northern hemisphere. We investigated whether the hunting of red deer (Cervus elaphus) has reduced their abundance in the Southern Black Forest (area 17,500 ha), Southern Germany, since 2006. Red deer abundance was estimated using data obtained from visual counts at winter feeding sites, track counts, and bag records. An age- and sex-structured population model to estimate the winter population size was also constructed using bag records. The estimated red deer population size was evaluated according to a non-invasive genetic mark-recapture approach. The results showed that the hunting of red deer can reduce their population size if the hunting regime is part of a holistic management concept that takes into account the uncertainty of population size estimates and is implemented at scales appropriate to the management of this species.     

Factors Affecting Harp Seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) Strandings in the Northwest Atlantic

The effects of climate change on high latitude regions are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the rapid decline of sea ice cover in the Arctic. Many high latitude species dependent on sea ice are being forced to adapt to changing habitats. Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) are an indicator species for changing high-latitude ecosystems. This study analyzed multiple factors including ice cover, demographics, and genetic diversity, which could affect harp seal stranding rates along the eastern coast of the United States. Ice cover assessments were conducted for the month of February in the Gulf of St. Lawrence whelping region from 1991–2010 using remote sensing data, and harp seal stranding data were collected over the same time period. Genetic diversity, which may affect how quickly species can adapt to changing climates, was assessed using ten microsatellite markers to determine mean d ² in a subset of stranded and by-caught (presumably healthy) seals sampled along the northeast U.S. coast. Our study found a strong negative correlation (R ² = 0.49) between ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and yearling harp seal strandings, but found no relationship between sea ice conditions and adult strandings. Our analysis revealed that male seals stranded more frequently than females during the study period and that this relationship was strongest during light ice years. In contrast, we found no significant difference in mean d ² between stranded and by-caught harp seals. The results demonstrate that sea ice cover and demographic factors have a greater influence on harp seal stranding rates than genetic diversity, with only a little of the variance in mean d ² among stranded seals explained by ice cover. Any changes in these factors could have major implications for harp seals, and these findings should be considered in the development of future management plans for the Arctic that incorporate climate variability.     

Biogeography and taxonomy of extinct and endangered monk seals illuminated by ancient DNA and skull morphology

Extinctions and declines of large marine vertebrates have major ecological impacts and are of critical concern in marine environments. The Caribbean monk seal, Monachus tropicalis, last definitively reported in 1952, was one of the few marine mammal species to become extinct in historical times. Despite its importance for understanding the evolutionary biogeography of southern phocids, the relationships of M. tropicalis to the two living species of critically endangered monk seals have not been resolved. In this study we present the first molecular data for M. tropicalis, derived from museum skins. Phylogenetic analysis of cytochrome b sequences indicates that M. tropicalis was more closely related to the Hawaiian rather than the Mediterranean monk seal. Divergence time estimation implicates the formation of the Panamanian Isthmus in the speciation of Caribbean and Hawaiian monk seals. Molecular, morphological and temporal divergence between the Mediterranean and “New World monk seals” (Hawaiian and Caribbean) is profound, equivalent to or greater than between sister genera of phocids. As a result, we classify the Caribbean and Hawaiian monk seals together in a newly erected genus, Neomonachus. The two genera of extant monk seals (Monachus and Neomonachus) represent old evolutionary lineages each represented by a single critically endangered species, both warranting continuing and concerted conservation attention and investment if they are to avoid the fate of their Caribbean relative.     

Temporal variation in distribution and density of ice-obligated seals in western Hudson Bay, Canada

Recent unidirectional climatic trends and changes in top predator population ecology suggest that long-term modifications may be happening in Hudson Bay, Canada. Effects of such changes on ice-obligated seal populations are expected but long-term studies are required to differentiate climate-induced changes from natural variation. We conducted strip-transect surveys in late spring in 1995–1997, 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 to estimate distribution, density and abundance of ice-obligated ringed (Phoca hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals in western Hudson Bay. When hauled out, ringed seals preferred land-fast and consolidated pack ice, whereas bearded seals preferred unconsolidated pack ice. Bearded and ringed seal density estimates varied from 0.0036 to 0.0229 seals/km² of ice and from 0.46 to 1.60 seals/km² of ice, respectively. Strong inter-annual variations were recorded in the abundance estimates of both species, with the largest abundance estimates in 1995 (104,162 and 1,494 ringed and bearded seals, respectively) and the lowest in 2008 for ringed seals (33,701) and 1997 for bearded seals (278). A sine function best described seal density estimates in western Hudson Bay and suggested a decadal cycle. Previous studies that reported low ringed seal demographic parameters in the 1990s and a recovery in the 2000s supported our interpretation of the survey results. We discuss our results in the context of climate warming and suggest that a long-term decline in ice-obligated seal density estimates may overlay a possible natural decadal cycle.     

Ecological Meltdown in the Firth of Clyde,Scotland: Two Centuries of Change in a Coastal Marine Ecosystem

Background

The Firth of Clyde is a large inlet of the sea that extends over 100 km into Scotland''s west coast.

Methods

We compiled detailed fisheries landings data for this area and combined them with historical accounts to build a picture of change due to fishing activity over the last 200 years.

Findings

In the early 19^th century, prior to the onset of industrial fishing, the Firth of Clyde supported diverse and productive fisheries for species such as herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae), cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus, Gadidae), turbot (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae) and flounder (Platichthys flesus, Pleuronectidae). The 19^th century saw increased demand for fish, which encouraged more indiscriminate methods of fishing such as bottom trawling. During the 1880s, fish landings began to decline, and upon the recommendation of local fishers and scientists, the Firth of Clyde was closed to large trawling vessels in 1889. This closure remained in place until 1962 when bottom trawling for Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus, Nephropidae) was approved in areas more than three nautical miles from the coast. During the 1960s and 1970s, landings of bottomfish increased as trawling intensified. The trawl closure within three nautical miles of the coast was repealed in 1984 under pressure from the industry. Thereafter, bottomfish landings went into terminal decline, with all species collapsing to zero or near zero landings by the early 21^st century. Herring fisheries collapsed in the 1970s as more efficient mid-water trawls and fish finders were introduced, while a fishery for mid-water saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae) underwent a boom and bust shortly after discovery in the late 1960s. The only commercial fisheries that remain today are for Nephrops and scallops (Pecten maximus, Pectinidae).

Significance

The Firth of Clyde is a marine ecosystem nearing the endpoint of overfishing, a time when no species remain that are capable of sustaining commercial catches. The evidence suggests that trawl closures helped maintain productive fisheries through the mid-20^th century, and their reopening precipitated collapse of bottomfish stocks. We argue that continued intensive bottom trawling for Nephrops with fine mesh nets will prevent the recovery of other species. This once diverse and highly productive environment will only be restored if trawl closures or other protected areas are re-introduced. The Firth of Clyde represents at a small scale a process that is occurring ocean-wide today, and its experience serves as a warning to others.     

Modelled mid-trophic pelagic prey fields improve understanding of marine predator foraging behaviour

Biophysical interactions are influential in determining the scale of key ecological processes within marine ecosystems. For oceanic predators, this means foraging behaviour is influenced by processes shaping the distribution of prey. However, oceanic prey is difficult to observe and its abundance and distribution is regionally generalised. We use a spatiotemporally resolved simulation model to describe mid-trophic prey distribution within the Southern Ocean and demonstrate insights that this modelled prey field provides into the foraging behaviour of a widely distributed marine predator, the southern elephant seal. From a five-year simulation of prey biomass, we computed climatologies of mean prey biomass (average prey conditions) and prey biomass variability (meso-scale variability). We also compiled spatially gridded metrics of seal density and diving behaviour from 13 yr of tracking data. We statistically modelled these metrics as non-linear functions of prey biomass (both mean and variability) and used these to predict seal distribution and behaviour. Our predictions were consistent with observations (R²_adj = 0.23), indicating that seals aggregate in regions of high mesoscale activity where eddies concentrate prey. Here, seals dived deeper (R²_marg = 0.12, R²_cond = 0.51) and spent less time hunting (R²_marg = 0.05, R²_cond = 0.56), likely targeting deep but profitable prey patches. Seals generally avoided areas of low eddy activity where prey was likely dispersed. Most seals foraged south of the Subantarctic Front, despite north of the front exhibiting consistently high simulated prey biomasses. This likely reflects seal prey or habitat preferences, but also emphasises the importance of mesoscale prey biomass variability relative to regionally high mean biomass. This work demonstrates the value of coupling mechanistic representations of prey biomass with predator observations to provide insight into how biophysical processes combine to shape species distributions. This will be increasingly important for the robust prediction of species’ responses to rapid system change.