Stage‐dependent responses to emergent habitat heterogeneity: consequences for a predatory insect population in a coffee agroecosystem

Interactions among members of biological communities can create spatial patterns that effectively generate habitat heterogeneity for other members in the community, and this heterogeneity might be crucial for their persistence. For example, stage‐dependent vulnerability of a predatory lady beetle to aggression of the ant, Azteca instabilis, creates two habitat types that are utilized differently by the immature and adult life stages of the beetle. Due to a mutualistic association between A. instabilis and the hemipteran Coccus viridis – which is A. orbigera main prey in the area – only plants around ant nests have high C. viridis populations. Here, we report on a series of surveys at three different scales aimed at detecting how the presence and clustered distribution of ant nests affect the distribution of the different life stages of this predatory lady beetle in a coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico. Both beetle adults and larvae were more abundant in areas with ant nests, but adults were restricted to the peripheries of highest ant activity and outside the reach of coffee bushes containing the highest densities of lady beetle larvae. The abundance of adult beetles located around trees with ants increased with the size of the ant nest clusters but the relationship is not significant for larvae. Thus, we suggest that A. orbigera undergoes an ontogenetic niche shift, not through shifting prey species, but through stage‐specific vulnerability differences against a competitor that renders areas of abundant prey populations inaccessible for adults but not for larvae. Together with evidence presented elsewhere, this study shows how an important predator is not only dependent on the existence of two qualitatively distinct habitat types, but also on the spatial distribution of these habitats. We suggest that this dependency arises due to the different responses that the predator's life stages have to this emergent spatial pattern.     

Does Sex-Selective Predation Stabilize or Destabilize Predator-Prey Dynamics?

Background

Little is known about the impact of prey sexual dimorphism on predator-prey dynamics and the impact of sex-selective harvesting and trophy hunting on long-term stability of exploited populations.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We review the quantitative evidence for sex-selective predation and study its long-term consequences using several simple predator-prey models. These models can be also interpreted in terms of feedback between harvesting effort and population size of the harvested species under open-access exploitation. Among the 81 predator-prey pairs found in the literature, male bias in predation is 2.3 times as common as female bias. We show that long-term effects of sex-selective predation depend on the interplay of predation bias and prey mating system. Predation on the ‘less limiting’ prey sex can yield a stable predator-prey equilibrium, while predation on the other sex usually destabilizes the dynamics and promotes population collapses. For prey mating systems that we consider, males are less limiting except for polyandry and polyandrogyny, and male-biased predation alone on such prey can stabilize otherwise unstable dynamics. On the contrary, our results suggest that female-biased predation on polygynous, polygynandrous or monogamous prey requires other stabilizing mechanisms to persist.

Conclusions and Significance

Our modelling results suggest that the observed skew towards male-biased predation might reflect, in addition to sexual selection, the evolutionary history of predator-prey interactions. More focus on these phenomena can yield additional and interesting insights as to which mechanisms maintain the persistence of predator-prey pairs over ecological and evolutionary timescales. Our results can also have implications for long-term sustainability of harvesting and trophy hunting of sexually dimorphic species.     

Maize Benefits the Predatory Beetle, Propylea japonica (Thunberg), to Provide Potential to Enhance Biological Control for Aphids in Cotton

Background

Biological control provided by natural enemies play an important role in integrated pest management. Generalist insect predators provide an important biological service in the regulation of agricultural insect pests. Our goal is to understand the explicit process of oviposition preference, habitat selection and feeding behavior of predators in farmland ecosystem consisting of multiple crops, which is central to devising and delivering an integrated pest management program.

Methodology

The hypotheses was that maize can serve as habitat for natural enemies and benefits predators to provide potential to enhance biological control for pest insects in cotton. This explicit process of a predatory beetle, Propylea japonica, in agricultural ecosystem composed of cotton and maize were examined by field investigation and stable carbon isotope analysis during 2008–2010.

Principal Finding

Field investigation showed that P. japonica adults will search host plants for high prey abundance before laying eggs, indicating indirectly that P. japonica adults prefer to inhabit maize plants and travel to cotton plants to actively prey on aphids. The δ¹³C values of adult P. japonica in a dietary shift experiment found that individual beetles were shifting from a C₃- to a C₄-based diet of aphids reared on maize or cotton, respectively, and began to reflect the isotope ratio of their new C₄ resources within one week. Approximately 80–100% of the diet of P. japonica adults in maize originated from a C₃-based resource in June, July and August, while approximately 80% of the diet originated from a C₄-based resource in September.

Conclusion/Significance

Results suggest that maize can serve as a habitat or refuge source for the predatory beetle, P. japonica, and benefits predators to provide potential to enhance biological control for insect pests in cotton.     

Persistence increases with diversity and connectance in trophic metacommunities

Background

We are interested in understanding if metacommunity dynamics contribute to the persistence of complex spatial food webs subject to colonization-extinction dynamics. We study persistence as a measure of stability of communities within discrete patches, and ask how do species diversity, connectance, and topology influence it in spatially structured food webs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We answer this question first by identifying two general mechanisms linking topology of simple food web modules and persistence at the regional scale. We then assess the robustness of these mechanisms to more complex food webs with simulations based on randomly created and empirical webs found in the literature. We find that linkage proximity to primary producers and food web diversity generate a positive relationship between complexity and persistence in spatial food webs. The comparison between empirical and randomly created food webs reveal that the most important element for food web persistence under spatial colonization-extinction dynamics is the degree distribution: the number of prey species per consumer is more important than their identity.

Conclusions/Significance

With a simple set of rules governing patch colonization and extinction, we have predicted that diversity and connectance promote persistence at the regional scale. The strength of our approach is that it reconciles the effect of complexity on stability at the local and the regional scale. Even if complex food webs are locally prone to extinction, we have shown their complexity could also promote their persistence through regional dynamics. The framework we presented here offers a novel and simple approach to understand the complexity of spatial food webs.     

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

Background

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions.

Methods

We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi.

Results

Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk.

Conclusions

The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.     

Reduced Population Control of an Insect Pest in Managed Willow Monocultures

Background

There is a general belief that insect outbreak risk is higher in plant monocultures than in natural and more diverse habitats, although empirical studies investigating this relationship are lacking. In this study, using density data collected over seven years at 40 study sites, we compare the temporal population variability of the leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima between willow plantations and natural willow habitats.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study was conducted in 1999–2005. The density of adult P. vulgatissima was estimated in the spring every year by a knock-down sampling technique. We used two measures of population variability, CV and PV, to compare temporal variations in leaf beetle density between plantation and natural habitat. Relationships between density and variability were also analyzed to discern potential underlying processes behind stability in the two systems. The results showed that the leaf beetle P. vulgatissima had a greater temporal population variability and outbreak risk in willow plantations than in natural willow habitats. We hypothesize that the greater population stability observed in the natural habitat was due to two separate processes operating at different levels of beetle density. First, stable low population equilibrium can be achieved by the relatively high density of generalist predators observed in natural stands. Second, stable equilibrium can also be imposed at higher beetle density due to competition, which occurs through depletion of resources (plant foliage) in the natural habitat. In willow plantations, competition is reduced mainly because plants grow close enough for beetle larvae to move to another plant when foliage is consumed.

Conclusion/Significance

To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study confirming that insect pest outbreak risk is higher in monocultures. The study suggests that comparative studies of insect population dynamics in different habitats may improve our ability to predict insect pest outbreaks and could facilitate the development of sustainable pest control in managed systems.     

Merging resource availability with isotope mixing models: the role of neutral interaction assumptions

Background

Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator''s diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values.

Methodology

We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator''s diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator''s diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.     

Modelling the development and arrangement of the primary vascular structure in plants

Background and Aims

The process of vascular development in plants results in the formation of a specific array of bundles that run throughout the plant in a characteristic spatial arrangement. Although much is known about the genes involved in the specification of procambium, phloem and xylem, the dynamic processes and interactions that define the development of the radial arrangement of such tissues remain elusive.

Methods

This study presents a spatially explicit reaction–diffusion model defining a set of logical and functional rules to simulate the differentiation of procambium, phloem and xylem and their spatial patterns, starting from a homogeneous group of undifferentiated cells.

Key Results

Simulation results showed that the model is capable of reproducing most vascular patterns observed in plants, from primitive and simple structures made up of a single strand of vascular bundles (protostele), to more complex and evolved structures, with separated vascular bundles arranged in an ordered pattern within the plant section (e.g. eustele).

Conclusions

The results presented demonstrate, as a proof of concept, that a common genetic–molecular machinery can be the basis of different spatial patterns of plant vascular development. Moreover, the model has the potential to become a useful tool to test different hypotheses of genetic and molecular interactions involved in the specification of vascular tissues.     

Coupled Stochastic Spatial and Non-Spatial Simulations of ErbB1 Signaling Pathways Demonstrate the Importance of Spatial Organization in Signal Transduction

Background

The ErbB family of receptors activates intracellular signaling pathways that control cellular proliferation, growth, differentiation and apoptosis. Given these central roles, it is not surprising that overexpression of the ErbB receptors is often associated with carcinogenesis. Therefore, extensive laboratory studies have been devoted to understanding the signaling events associated with ErbB activation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Systems biology has contributed significantly to our current understanding of ErbB signaling networks. However, although computational models have grown in complexity over the years, little work has been done to consider the spatial-temporal dynamics of receptor interactions and to evaluate how spatial organization of membrane receptors influences signaling transduction. Herein, we explore the impact of spatial organization of the epidermal growth factor receptor (ErbB1/EGFR) on the initiation of downstream signaling. We describe the development of an algorithm that couples a spatial stochastic model of membrane receptors with a nonspatial stochastic model of the reactions and interactions in the cytosol. This novel algorithm provides a computationally efficient method to evaluate the effects of spatial heterogeneity on the coupling of receptors to cytosolic signaling partners.

Conclusions/Significance

Mathematical models of signal transduction rarely consider the contributions of spatial organization due to high computational costs. A hybrid stochastic approach simplifies analyses of the spatio-temporal aspects of cell signaling and, as an example, demonstrates that receptor clustering contributes significantly to the efficiency of signal propagation from ligand-engaged growth factor receptors.     

Time-ordered networks reveal limitations to information flow in ant colonies

Background

An important function of many complex networks is to inhibit or promote the transmission of disease, resources, or information between individuals. However, little is known about how the temporal dynamics of individual-level interactions affect these networks and constrain their function. Ant colonies are a model comparative system for understanding general principles linking individual-level interactions to network-level functions because interactions among individuals enable integration of multiple sources of information to collectively make decisions, and allocate tasks and resources.

Methodology/Findings

Here we show how the temporal and spatial dynamics of such individual interactions provide upper bounds to rates of colony-level information flow in the ant Temnothorax rugatulus. We develop a general framework for analyzing dynamic networks and a mathematical model that predicts how information flow scales with individual mobility and group size.

Conclusions/Significance

Using thousands of time-stamped interactions between uniquely marked ants in four colonies of a range of sizes, we demonstrate that observed maximum rates of information flow are always slower than predicted, and are constrained by regulation of individual mobility and contact rate. By accounting for the ordering and timing of interactions, we can resolve important difficulties with network sampling frequency and duration, enabling a broader understanding of interaction network functioning across systems and scales.     

Coevolution in a one predator-two prey system

Background

Our understanding of coevolution in a predator–prey system is based mostly on pair-wise interactions.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Here I analyze a one-predator–two-prey system in which the predator''s attack ability and the defense abilities of the prey all evolve. The coevolutionary consequences can differ dramatically depending on the initial trait value and the timing of the alternative prey''s invasion into the original system. If the invading prey species has relatively low defense ability when it invades, its defense is likely to evolve to a lower level, stabilizing the population dynamics. In contrast, if when it invades its defense ability is close to that of the resident prey, its defense can evolve to a higher level and that of the resident prey may suddenly cease to evolve, destabilizing the population dynamics. Destabilization due to invasion is likely when the invading prey is adaptively superior (evolution of its defense is less constrained and fast), and it can also occur in a broad condition even when the invading prey is adaptively inferior. In addition, invasion into a resident system far from equilibrium characterized by population oscillations is likely to cause further destabilization.

Conclusions and Significance

An invading prey species is thus likely to destabilize a resident community.     

Metacommunity Dynamics: Decline of Functional Relationship along a Habitat Fragmentation Gradient

Background

The metacommunity framework is crucial to the study of functional relations along environmental gradients. Changes in resource grain associated with increasing habitat fragmentation should generate uncoupled responses of interacting species with contrasted dispersal abilities.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we tested whether the intensity of parasitism was modified by increasing habitat fragmentation in the well know predator-prey system linking the parasitoid Cotesia glomerata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) to its main host Pieris brassicae (Lepidoptera: Pieridae). We collected information on herbivorous abundance and parasitism rate along an urbanization gradient from the periphery to the centre of Paris. We showed that butterfly densities were not influenced by habitat fragmentation, whereas parasitism rate sharply decreased along this gradient.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results provide novel insights into the mechanisms underlying the persistence of species in highly fragmented areas. They suggest that differential dispersal abilities could alter functional relationships between prey and predator, notably by a lack of natural predators.     

Predators Reduce Extinction Risk in Noisy Metapopulations

Background

Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches.

Findings

By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model.

Conclusions

Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level.     

Tea and Coffee Consumption and Risk of Laryngeal Cancer: A Systematic Review Meta-Analysis

Background

Tea and coffee are the most commonly consumed beverages in the worldwide. The relationship between tea and coffee consumption on the risk of laryngeal cancer was still unclear.

Methods

Relevant studies were identified by searching electronic database (Medline and EMBASE) and reviewing the reference lists of relevant articles until Oct. 2013. Observational studies that reported RRs and 95% CIs for the link of tea and coffee consumption on the risk of laryngeal cancer were eligible. A meta-analysis was obtained to combine study-specific RRs with a random-effects model.

Results

A total of 2,803 cases and 503,234 controls in 10 independent studies were identified. The overall analysis of all 10 studies, including the case-control and cohort studies, found that tea drinking was not associated with laryngeal carcinoma (RR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.66–1.61). However, coffee consumption was significantly associated with the laryngeal carcinoma (RR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.03–2.11). A dose-response relationship between coffee intake and laryngeal carcinoma was detected; however, no evidence of dose-response link between tea consumption and laryngeal carcinoma risk was detected.

Conclusions

The results from this meta-analysis of observational studies demonstrate that coffee consumption would increase the laryngeal cancer risk, while tea intake was not associated with risk of laryngeal carcinoma.     

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Breast Cancer: An Up-To-Date Meta-Analysis

Objectives

This updated meta-analysis was conducted to assess the association between coffee consumption and breast cancer risk.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search updated July 2012 to identify observational studies providing quantitative estimates for breast cancer risk in relation to coffee consumption. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model, and generalized least square trend estimation was used to assess dose–response relationships.

Results

A total of 26 studies (16 cohort and 10 case–control studies) on coffee intake with 49497 breast cancer cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled RR showed a borderline significant influence of highest coffee consumption (RR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.93–1.00), low-to moderate coffee consumption (RR = 0.99; 95% CI 0.95–1.04), or an increment of 2 cups/day of coffee consumption (RR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.97–1.00) on the risk of breast cancer. In stratified analysis, a significant inverse association was observed in ER-negative subgroup. However, no significant association was noted in the others.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that increased coffee intake is not associated with a significantly reduced risk of breast cancer, but we observe an inverse association in ER-negative subgroup analysis. More large studies are needed to determine subgroups to obtain more valuable data on coffee drinking and breast cancer risk.