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1.
Temporal variations of spatial coverage patterns of major plant species in the alkaline grasslands in northeast China subject to climate change were studied using a spatial simulation model. The model stressed the coupling between soil alkali and vegetation coverage. The modeled species coverage patterns were shown in close agreement with observations on a fenced one-hectare alkaline grassland from 1989 to 1993. The impacts of climate change on the species coverage were studied by subtracting the output patterns of the model under contemporary climate from those under altered climate. To relate the difference patterns to various landscape indices, the one-hectare region was divided into 25 subregions. The differencein species coverage between the present and altered climate and spatial pattern and diversity indices were computed for each subregion. A statistical analysis showed that for plants with wide ranges of tolerance to soil alkali and strong spatial migration capability, the impact of climate change was significantly related to spatial patterns, but not to diversity. However, for plants with narrow ranges of tolerance to soil alkali and less capability to migrate spatially, the impact of climate change was related to both diversity and spatial patterns.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents the results of 2 yr of CO(2) flux measurements on grassland communities of varying species richness, exposed to either the current or a warmer climate. We grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures, while the other half were warmed by 3 degrees C. Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, implying drier soils if warming increased evapotranspiration. Three main CO(2) fluxes (gross photosynthesis, above-ground and below-ground respiration) were measured multiple times per year and reconstructed hourly or half-hourly by relating them to their most important environmental driver. While CO(2) outputs through respiration were largely unchanged under warming, CO(2) inputs through photosynthesis were lowered, especially in summer, when heat and drought stress were higher. Above-ground CO(2) fluxes were significantly increased in multispecies communities, as more complementary resource use stimulated productivity. Finally, effects of warming appeared to be smallest in monocultures. This study shows that in a future warmer climate the CO(2) sink capacity of temperate grasslands could decline, and that such adverse effects are not likely to be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.  相似文献   

3.
Akana E. Noto  Jonathan B. Shurin 《Oikos》2017,126(9):1308-1318
Environmental variability and the frequency of extreme events are predicted to increase in future climate scenarios; however, the role of fluctuations in shaping community composition, diversity and stability is not well understood. Identifying current patterns of association between measures of community stability and climatic means and variability will help elucidate the ways in which altered variability and mean conditions may change communities in the future. Salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services and are increasingly threatened by sea‐level rise, land‐use change, eutrophication and predator loss, yet the effects of temporal environmental variation on salt marshes remain unknown. We synthesized long‐term plant community monitoring data from 11 sites on both coasts of the United States. We used an information‐theoretic approach and linear models to determine the associations among long‐term mean conditions, interannual environmental variability, and plant community stability and diversity. We found that salt marsh community stability and diversity were more strongly related to long‐term means of temperature and precipitation than to interannual variation. Warm and wet environments had fewer species and less turnover among years. Our results suggest that communities in cool, dry environments may be more resilient to climate warming due to greater species richness and turnover. Mean conditions are sufficient to predict contemporary patterns of salt marsh plant community dynamics, but environmental variability may have stronger impacts as it increases with climate change.  相似文献   

4.
Aims Biogeographical evidence suggests a strong link between climate and patterns of species diversity, and climate change is known to cause range shifts. However, there is little understanding of how shifts affect community composition and we lack empirical evidence of recent impacts of climate change on the diversity of vertebrates. Using a long‐term comprehensive dataset on bird abundance, we explore recent patterns of change in different components of species diversity and avian communities, and postulate a process to explain the observed changes in diversity and specialization. Location Britain. Methods We used Breeding Bird Survey data for Britain from 1994 to 2006 to calculate site‐specific diversity and community specialization indices. We modelled these indices using generalized additive models to examine the relationship between local climate and spatial and temporal trends in community metrics and the relationship between changes in diversity and specialization. Results Local temperature was positively associated with alpha diversity, which increased over the study period, supporting empirical and theoretical predictions of the effect of climate warming. Diversity increased in all habitats, but the rate of increase was greatest in upland areas. However, temperature was negatively associated with community specialization indices, which declined over the same period. Our modelling revealed a nonlinear relationship between community specialization and species diversity. Main conclusions Our models of diversity and specialization provide stark empirical evidence for a link between warming climate and community homogenization. Over a 13‐year period of warming temperatures, diversity indices increased while average community specialization decreased. We suggest that the observed diversity increases were most likely driven by range expansion of generalist species and that future warming is likely to increase homogenization of community structure. When assessed in combination, diversity and specialization measures provide a powerful index for monitoring the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

5.
Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxonomic groups remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, even though bryophytes are major contributors to diversity and functioning in many ecosystems. Here, we report an empirical study comparing long‐term change in bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long‐term warming trends, using “legacy” botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys. We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trend and that vascular plant communities, with narrower climatic niches, would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxonomic group in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species'' distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition. We found contrasted temporal changes in bryophyte vs. vascular plant communities, which only partially supported the warming hypothesis. In the area with a stronger warming trend, we found a significant increase in local diversity and dissimilarity (β‐diversity) for vascular plants, but not for bryophytes. Presence–absence data did not provide sufficient power to detect elevational shifts in species distributions. The patterns observed for bryophytes are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, abundance data from different taxonomic groups and different community properties need to be synthesized.  相似文献   

6.
Previous studies on large‐scale patterns in plant richness and underlying mechanisms have mostly focused on forests and mountains, while drylands covering most of the world's grasslands and deserts are more poorly investigated for lack of data. Here, we aim to 1) evaluate the plant richness patterns in Inner Asian drylands; 2) compare the relative importance of contemporary environment, historical climate, vegetation changes, and mid‐domain effect (MDE); and 3) explore whether the dominant drivers of species richness differ across growth forms (woody vs herbaceous) and range sizes (common vs rare). Distribution data and growth forms of 13 248 seed plants were compiled from literature and species range sizes were estimated. Generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning were used to evaluate the relative contribution of different factors. We found that habitat heterogeneity strongly affected both woody and herbaceous species. Precipitation, climate change since the mid‐Holocene and climate seasonality dominated herbaceous richness patterns, while climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum dominated woody richness patterns. Rare species richness was strongly correlated with precipitation, habitat heterogeneity and historical climatic changes, while common species richness was strongly correlated with MDE (woody) or climate seasonality (herbaceous). Temperature had little effects on the species richness patterns of all groups. This study represents the first evaluation of the large‐scale patterns of plant species richness in the Inner Asian drylands. Our results suggest that increasing water deficit due to anthropogenic activities combined with future global warming may increase the extinction risk of many grassland species. Rare species (both herbaceous and woody) may face severe challenges in the future due to increased habitat destruction caused by urbanization and resource exploitation. Overall, our findings indicate that the hypotheses on species richness patterns based on woody plants alone can be insufficient to explain the richness patterns of herbaceous species.  相似文献   

7.
Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200 000 km2 under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate–pathogen interaction.  相似文献   

8.
Human‐induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy‐resolving ocean model in south‐eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross‐current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south‐eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate‐induced changes of species ranges.  相似文献   

9.
气候变化下千金榆在我国潜在分布区预测   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
气候变化严重影响植物的地理分布格局,植物分布对气候变化响应的区域差异性也将为引种和保存提供重要的指导.本研究基于ArcGIS与MaxEnt模型,利用176个千金榆地理信息和13个气候变量,对当前和未来的生态位进行重建.结果表明:模型模拟当代潜在分布区可信度极高,测试集与训练集AUC值分别为0.973和0.957.主要核心适宜区集中在秦岭、长白山及其各自的邻近区域,其他为零星的“岛屿”式分布.贵州、江西、云南、福建等地未发现千金榆的分布,但存在一定的适宜分布区.随着未来气候变暖,千金榆生态适宜区明显增加,主要表现为“向高海拔地区收缩”、“北扩”和“东扩”.但核心适宜区略有减少,具体表现为“南缩”、“中稳”和“北扩”.千金榆的分布对气候变暖的响应存在明显的区域性,在东部江苏、安徽等地,因其独特的地理位置与气候环境,该地区开始成为千金榆生态适宜区;在较低纬度的南方,原有的低海拔地区可能不再适宜千金榆生存;中部秦岭地区气候为南北的渐变区,有较强的缓冲能力,气候变暖对其分布区影响不大;较高纬度的长白山地区及其邻近区域愈发适宜千金榆生存.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change has the potential to influence the persistence of ecological communities by altering their stability properties. One of the major drivers of community stability is species diversity, which is itself expected to be altered by climate change in many systems. The extent to which climatic effects on community stability may be buffered by the influence of species interactions on diversity is, however, poorly understood because of a paucity of studies incorporating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors. Here, I report results of a 10-year field experiment, the past 7 years of which have focused on effects of ongoing warming and herbivore removal on diversity and stability within the plant community, where competitive species interactions are mediated by exploitation through herbivory. Across the entire plant community, stability increased with diversity, but both stability and diversity were reduced by herbivore removal, warming and their interaction. Within the most species-rich functional group in the community, forbs, warming reduced species diversity, and both warming and herbivore removal reduced the strength of the relationship between diversity and stability. Species interactions, such as exploitation, may thus buffer communities against destabilizing influences of climate change, and intact populations of large herbivores, in particular, may prove important in maintaining and promoting plant community diversity and stability in a changing climate.  相似文献   

11.
We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26–36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant–plant interactions. Heat stress and warming‐induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species’ responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.  相似文献   

12.
The mainland portion of the Adelaide Geosyncline (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges) has been postulated as an important arid‐zone climate refugium for Australia. To test the sensitivity of this putative Australian arid biome refugium to contemporary climate change, we compared Generalized Additive Modelling and MaxEnt distribution models for 20 vascular plant species. We aimed to identify shared patterns to inform priority areas for management. Models based on current climate were projected onto a hypothetical 2050 climate with a 1.5°C increase in temperature and 8% decrease in rainfall. Individual comparisons and combined outputs of logistic models for all 20 species showed range contraction to shared refugia in the Flinders Ranges and southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Modelling suggests the Flinders Ranges will experience species turnover while suitable climatic habitat will be retained in the Mount Lofty Ranges for the current suite of species. Fragmentation of the southern Mount Lofty Ranges poses management challenges for conserving species diversity with warming and drying. Although projected models must be interpreted carefully, they suggest the region will remain an important but threatened refugium for mesic species at a continental scale.  相似文献   

13.
A hierarchical perspective of plant diversity   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Predictive models of plant diversity have typically focused on either a landscape's capacity for richness (equilibrium models), or on the processes that regulate competitive exclusion, and thus allow species to coexist (nonequilibrium models). Here, we review the concepts and purposes of a hierarchical, multiscale model of the controls of plant diversity that incorporates the equilibrium model of climatic favorability at macroscales, nonequilibrium models of competition at microscales, and a mixed model emphasizing environmental heterogeneity at mesoscales. We evaluate the conceptual model using published data from three spatially nested datasets: (1) a macroscale analysis of ecoregions in the continental and western U.S.; (2) a mesoscale study in California; and (3) a microscale study in the Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon and California. At the macroscale (areas from 3889 km2 to 638,300 km2), climate (actual evaporation) was a strong predictor of tree diversity (R2 = 0.80), as predicted by the conceptual model, but area was a better predictor for vascular plant diversity overall (R2 = 0.38), which suggests different types of plants differ in their sensitivity to climatic controls. At mesoscales (areas from 1111 km2 to 15,833 km2), climate was still an important predictor of richness (R2 = 0.52), but, as expected, topographic heterogeneity explained an important share of the variance (R2 = 0.19) showed positive correlations with diversity of trees, shrubs, and annual and perennial herbs, and was the primary predictor of shrub and annual plant species richness. At microscales (0.1 ha plots), spatial patterns of diversity showed a clear unimodal pattern along a climate-driven productivity gradient and a negative relationship with soil fertility. The strong decline in understory and total diversity at the most productive sites suggests that competitive controls, as predicted, can override climatic controls at this scale. We conclude that this hierarchical, multiscale model provides a sound basis to understand and analyze plant species diversity. Specifically, future research should employ the principles in this paper to explore climatic controls on species richness of different life forms, better quantify environmental heterogeneity in landscapes, and analyze how these large-scale factors interact with local nonequilibrium dynamics to maintain plant diversity.  相似文献   

14.
Past vegetation and climatic conditions are known to influence current biodiversity patterns. However, whether their legacy effects affect the provision of multiple ecosystem functions, that is, multifunctionality, remains largely unknown. Here we analyzed soil nutrient stocks and their transformation rates in 236 drylands from six continents to evaluate the associations between current levels of multifunctionality and legacy effects of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) desert biome distribution and climate. We found that past desert distribution and temperature legacy, defined as increasing temperature from LGM, were negatively correlated with contemporary multifunctionality even after accounting for predictors such as current climate, soil texture, plant species richness, and site topography. Ecosystems that have been deserts since the LGM had up to 30% lower contemporary multifunctionality compared with those that were nondeserts during the LGM. In addition, ecosystems that experienced higher warming rates since the LGM had lower contemporary multifunctionality than those suffering lower warming rates, with a ~9% reduction per extra degree Celsius. Past desert distribution and temperature legacies had direct negative effects, while temperature legacy also had indirect (via soil sand content) negative effects on multifunctionality. Our results indicate that past biome and climatic conditions have left a strong “functionality debt” in global drylands. They also suggest that ongoing warming and expansion of desert areas may leave a strong fingerprint in the future functioning of dryland ecosystems worldwide that needs to be considered when establishing management actions aiming to combat land degradation and desertification.  相似文献   

15.
Kari Klanderud  Ørjan Totland 《Oikos》2007,116(8):1279-1288
Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs).
Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala . These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity.  相似文献   

16.
Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.  相似文献   

17.
Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950–2000 and 2061–2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914–1987 and 1997–2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation‐plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914–2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (?0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species – corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency – along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate‐induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes.  相似文献   

18.
Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations.  相似文献   

19.
施秀珍  王建青  黄志群  贺纪正 《生态学报》2022,42(15):6092-6102
森林是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,其巨大的生产力和生态服务功能对人类的生存和发展至关重要。森林树种多样性增加能够显著提高森林生产力,关于树种多样性如何影响地下生物多样性及生态功能逐渐受到国内外学者的广泛关注。从土壤微生物及其介导的元素生物地球化学循环这一视角出发,综述了树种多样性对土壤细菌和真菌多样性、群落结构及功能的影响,提出需要进一步深入研究的方向。总体来说,树种多样性有利于增加土壤细菌生物量和多样性,是预测病原性真菌和菌根真菌多样性及群落结构的重要生物因子。树种多样性能增加土壤有机碳储量,增强森林土壤的甲烷氧化能力,并提高土壤磷周转速率及有效磷含量。关于树种多样性对森林土壤氮循环的影响需考虑多样性假说和质量比假说的相对贡献。今后应加强树种多样性对多个营养级之间相互作用的研究;关注树种多样性对生态系统多功能的影响;加强学科交叉,引入微生物种群动态模型和气候模型等模型预测方法,研究树种多样性对全球气候变化的应对机制,以期促进地上植物多样性与地下生态系统功能关系的研究,增强森林生态系统应对未来全球环境变化的能力。  相似文献   

20.
物种多样性海拔分布格局及其形成机制的研究是生物地理学和宏观生态学的重要议题之一。本文利用西双版纳植物专著资料, 结合高分辨率的地形和气候等数据, 探讨了面积、边界限制和现代气候对西双版纳野生种子植物物种丰富度及物种密度海拔分布格局的影响。结果表明: (1)物种丰富度呈单峰分布格局, 面积(81.9%)、边界限制(17.5%)和气候(60.0-69.3%)都不同程度地解释了物种丰富度的单峰格局; (2)利用幂函数种-面积关系计算的物种密度沿海拔大致呈减小的分布趋势, 气候的解释率降低为32.6-40.6%, 与边界限制无显著相关关系; (3)利用等面积高度带划分得到的物种密度沿海拔呈单峰变化趋势, 物种密度与边界限制无显著相关性, 但气候对物种密度的解释率为81.6-89.9%。研究结果有助于准确全面地理解物种多样性的海拔分布格局及其成因机制, 为西双版纳生物多样性保护提供理论支撑和实践指导。  相似文献   

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