Long-term follow-up of transsexual persons undergoing sex reassignment surgery: cohort study in Sweden

Context

The treatment for transsexualism is sex reassignment, including hormonal treatment and surgery aimed at making the person''s body as congruent with the opposite sex as possible. There is a dearth of long term, follow-up studies after sex reassignment.

Objective

To estimate mortality, morbidity, and criminal rate after surgical sex reassignment of transsexual persons.

Design

A population-based matched cohort study.

Setting

Sweden, 1973-2003.

Participants

All 324 sex-reassigned persons (191 male-to-females, 133 female-to-males) in Sweden, 1973–2003. Random population controls (10∶1) were matched by birth year and birth sex or reassigned (final) sex, respectively.

Main Outcome Measures

Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality and psychiatric morbidity were obtained with Cox regression models, which were adjusted for immigrant status and psychiatric morbidity prior to sex reassignment (adjusted HR [aHR]).

Results

The overall mortality for sex-reassigned persons was higher during follow-up (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8–4.3) than for controls of the same birth sex, particularly death from suicide (aHR 19.1; 95% CI 5.8–62.9). Sex-reassigned persons also had an increased risk for suicide attempts (aHR 4.9; 95% CI 2.9–8.5) and psychiatric inpatient care (aHR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0–3.9). Comparisons with controls matched on reassigned sex yielded similar results. Female-to-males, but not male-to-females, had a higher risk for criminal convictions than their respective birth sex controls.

Conclusions

Persons with transsexualism, after sex reassignment, have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behaviour, and psychiatric morbidity than the general population. Our findings suggest that sex reassignment, although alleviating gender dysphoria, may not suffice as treatment for transsexualism, and should inspire improved psychiatric and somatic care after sex reassignment for this patient group.     

Prevalence of obesity and the relationship between the body mass index and body fat: cross-sectional, population-based data

Background

Anthropometric measures such as the body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are widely used as convenient indices of adiposity, yet there are limitations in their estimates of body fat. We aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity using criteria based on the BMI and waist circumference, and to examine the relationship between the BMI and body fat.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted as part of the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. A random sample of 1,467 men and 1,076 women aged 20–96 years was assessed 2001–2008. Overweight and obesity were identified according to BMI (overweight 25.0–29.9 kg/m²; obesity ≥30.0 kg/m²) and waist circumference (overweight men 94.0–101.9 cm; women 80.0–87.9 cm; obesity men ≥102.0 cm, women ≥88.0 cm); body fat mass was assessed using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry; height and weight were measured and lifestyle factors documented by self-report. According to the BMI, 45.1% (95%CI 42.4–47.9) of men and 30.2% (95%CI 27.4–33.0) of women were overweight and a further 20.2% (95%CI 18.0–22.4) of men and 28.6% (95%CI 25.8–31.3) of women were obese. Using waist circumference, 27.5% (95%CI 25.1–30.0) of men and 23.3% (95%CI 20.8–25.9) of women were overweight, and 29.3% (95%CI 26.9–31.7) of men and 44.1% (95%CI 41.2–47.1) of women, obese. Both criteria indicate that approximately 60% of the population exceeded recommended thresholds for healthy body habitus. There was no consistent pattern apparent between BMI and energy intake. Compared with women, BMI overestimated adiposity in men, whose excess weight was largely attributable to muscular body builds and greater bone mass. BMI also underestimated adiposity in the elderly. Regression models including gender, age and BMI explained 0.825 of the variance in percent body fat.

Conclusions/Significance

As the BMI does not account for differences in body composition, we suggest that gender- and age-specific thresholds should be considered when the BMI is used to indicate adiposity.     

Risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia according to age and gender

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading causes of cancer related morbidity and death. Despite the fact that the mean age at diagnosis of CRC is lower in men, screening by colonoscopy or fecal occult blood test (FOBT) is initiated at same age in both genders. The prevalence of the common CRC precursor lesion, advanced adenoma, is well documented only in the screening population. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of advanced adenoma at ages below screening age.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed data from a census of 625,918 outpatient colonoscopies performed in adults in Bavaria between 2006 and 2008. A logistic regression model to determine gender- and age-specific risk of advanced neoplasia was developed. Advanced neoplasia was found in 16,740 women (4.6%) and 22,684 men (8.6%). Male sex was associated with an overall increased risk of advanced neoplasia (odds ratio 1.95; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.91 to 2.00). At any age and in any indication group, more colonoscopies were needed in women than in men to detect advanced adenoma or cancer. At age 75 14.8 (95% CI, 14.4–15.2) screening, 18.2 (95% CI, 17.7–18.7) diagnostic, and 7.9 (95% CI, 7.6–8.2) colonoscopies to follow up on a positive FOBT (FOBT colonoscopies) were needed to find advanced adenoma in women. At age 50 39.0 (95% CI, 38.0–40.0) diagnostic, and 16.3 (95% CI, 15.7–16.9) FOBT colonoscopies were needed. Comparable numbers were reached 20 and 10 years earlier in men than in women, respectively.

Conclusions

At any age and independent of the indication for colonoscopy, men are at higher risk of having advanced neoplasia diagnosed upon colonoscopy than women. This suggests that starting screening earlier in life in men than in women might result in a relevant increase in the detection of asymptomatic preneoplastic and neoplastic colonic lesions.     

Widening educational disparities in premature death rates in twenty six States in the United States, 1993-2007

Background

Eliminating socioeconomic disparities in health is an overarching goal of the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives. We present recent trends in mortality by education among working-aged populations.

Methods and Findings

Age-standardized death rates and their average annual percent change for all-cause and five major causes (cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and accidents) were calculated from 1993 through 2007 for individuals aged 25–64 years by educational attainment as a marker of socioeconomic status, using national vital registration data for 26 states with consistent educational information on the death certificates. Rate ratios and rate differences were used to assess disparities (≤12 versus ≥16 years of education) for 1993 through 2007. From 1993 through 2007, relative educational disparities in all-cause mortality continued to increase among working-aged men and women in the U.S., due to larger decreases of mortality rates among the most educated coupled with smaller decreases or even worsening trends in the less educated. For example, the rate ratios of all-cause mortality increased from 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.4–2.6) in 1993 to 3.6 (95% CI, 3.5–3.7) in 2007 in men and from 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8–2.0) to 3.0 (95% CI, 2.9–3.1) in women. Generally, the rate differences (per 100,000 persons) of all-cause mortality increased from 415.5 (95% CI, 399.1–431.9) in 1993 to 472.7 (95% CI, 460.2–485.2) in 2007 in men and from 165.4 (95% CI, 154.5–176.2) to 256.2 (95% CI, 248.3–264.2) in women. Disparity patterns varied largely across the five specific causes considered in this study, with the largest increases of relative disparities for accidents, especially in women.

Conclusions

Relative educational differentials in mortality continued to widen among men and women despite emphasis on reducing disparities in the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives.     

Gender-specific associations of marine n-3 fatty acids and fish consumption with 10-year incidence of stroke

Background

There is some evidence that the association of fish and marine fatty acids with stroke risk differs between men and women. We investigated the gender-specific associations of habitual intake of the marine fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) plus docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and fish on incident stroke in a population-based study in the Netherlands.

Methods

We prospectively followed 20,069 men and women, aged 20–65 years, without cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Habitual diet was assessed with a validated 178-item food frequency questionnaire. Incidence of stroke was assessed through linkage with mortality and morbidity registers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

During 8–13 years of follow-up, 221 strokes occurred. In women, an inverse dose-response relation (P-trend = 0.02) was observed between EPA-DHA intake and incident stroke, with an HR of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.27–0.91) in the top quartile of EPA-DHA (median 225 mg/d) as compared to the bottom quartile (median 36 mg/d). In men, the HR (95%CI) for the top quartile of EPA-DHA intake was 0.87 (0.51–1.48) (P-trend = 0.36). Similar results were observed for fish consumption and stroke incidence.

Conclusion

A higher EPA-DHA and fish intake is related to a lower stroke risk in women, while for men an inverse association could not be demonstrated.     

Five-year prognosis in an incident cohort of people presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Following an AMI, it is important for patients and their physicians to appreciate the subsequent risk of death, and the potential benefits of invasive cardiac procedures and secondary preventive therapy. Studies, to-date, have focused largely on high-risk populations. We wished to determine the risk of death in a population-derived cohort of 2,887 patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Logistic regression and survival analysis were conducted to investigate the effect of different baseline characteristics, pharmacological therapies and revascularization procedures on coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality outcomes.

Results

Within five years 44.4% of patients died (27.1% short-term [<30 days] and 23.7% longer-term [≥30 days]). Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 0.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.26–0.93), β-blockers (AHR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.46–0.74) and statins (AHR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.47–0.77) were all associated with significant reductions in longer-term CHD-related mortality. However, not all patients received secondary preventive therapy (8.7%). Diabetes (AHR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.43–2.34), stroke (AHR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.35–2.22), heart failure (AHR = 1.69, 95%CI 1.28–2.22), smoking (AHR = 1.72, 95%CI 1.18–2.51) and obesity (>30 kg/m2; AHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.01–1.90) increased the risk of longer-term mortality independent of other risk factors.

Conclusions

It is encouraging that the coronary procedure PTCA and pharmacological secondary prevention therapies were found to be strongly associated with an important reduced risk of subsequent death, although not all patients received these interventions. Smoking, being obese and having cardiovascular related disease at baseline were also associated with an increased likelihood of longer-term mortality, independent of other baseline characteristics. Thus, the provision of smoking cessation, advice on diet (for obese patients) and optimal treatment is likely to be crucial for reducing mortality in all patients after AMI.     

Magnitude and correlates of intimate partner violence against women and its outcome in Southwest Ethiopia

Background

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a major public health problem with serious consequences. This study was conducted to assess the magnitude of IPV in Southwest Ethiopia in predominantly rural community.

Methods

This community based cross-sectional study was conducted in May, 2009 in Southwest Ethiopia using the World Health Organization core questionnaire to measure violence against women. Trained data collectors interviewed 851 ever-married women. Stata version 10.1 software and SPSS version 12.0.1 for windows were used for data analysis.

Result

In this study the life time prevalence of sexual or physical partner violence, or both was 64.7% (95%CI: 61.4%–67.9%). The lifetime sexual violence [50.1% (95% CI: 46.7%–53.4%)] was considerably more prevalent than physical violence [41.1% (95%:37.8–44.5)]. A sizable proportion [41.5%(95%CI: 38.2%–44.8%)] of women reported physical or sexual violence, or both, in the past year. Men who were controlling were more likely to be violent against their partner.

Conclusion

Physical and sexual violence is common among ever-married women in Southwest Ethiopia. Interventions targeting controlling men might help in reducing IPV. Further prospective longitudinal studies among ever-married women are important to identify predictors and to study the dynamics of violence over time.     

Body adiposity in later life and the incidence of dementia: the health in men study

Objective

To determine if adiposity in later life increases dementia hazard.

Methods

Cohort study of 12,047 men aged 65–84 years living in Perth, Australia. Adiposity exposures were baseline body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). We used the Western Australian Data Linkage System (WADLS) to establish the presence of new cases of dementia between 1996 and 2009 according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). Crude and adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval, 95%CI) of dementia for each adiposity marker was calculated using Cox regression models. Other measured factors included age, marital status, education, alcohol use, smoking, diet, physical activity, and prevalent hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia and cardiovascular disease.

Results

Compared with men with BMI<25, participants with BMI between 25–30 had lower adjusted HR of dementia (HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.70–0.95). The HR of dementia for men with BMI≥30 was comparable to men with BMI<25 (HR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.67–1.01). Waist circumference showed no obvious association with dementia hazard. Men with WHR≥0.9 had lower adjusted HR of dementia than men with WHR <0.9 (HR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.69–0.98). We found a “J” shape association between measures of obesity and the hazard of dementia, with the nadir of risk being in the overweight range of BMI and about 1 for WHR.

Conclusions

Higher adiposity is not associated with incident dementia in this Australian cohort of older men. Overweight men and those with WHR≥0.9 have lower hazard of dementia than men with normal weight and with WHR<0.9.     

Sudden unexpected deaths and vaccinations during the first two years of life in Italy: a case series study

Background

The signal of an association between vaccination in the second year of life with a hexavalent vaccine and sudden unexpected deaths (SUD) in the two days following vaccination was reported in Germany in 2003. A study to establish whether the immunisation with hexavalent vaccines increased the short term risk of SUD in infants was conducted in Italy.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The reference population comprises around 3 million infants vaccinated in Italy in the study period 1999–2004 (1.5 million received hexavalent vaccines). Events of SUD in infants aged 1–23 months were identified through the death certificates. Vaccination history was retrieved from immunisation registries. Association between immunisation and death was assessed adopting a case series design focusing on the risk periods 0–1, 0–7, and 0–14 days after immunisation. Among the 604 infants who died of SUD, 244 (40%) had received at least one vaccination. Four deaths occurred within two days from vaccination with the hexavalent vaccines (RR = 1.5; 95% CI 0.6 to 4.2). The RRs for the risk periods 0–7 and 0–14 were 2.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.5) and 1.5 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.4). The increased risk was limited to the first dose (RR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 4.4), whereas no increase was observed for the second and third doses combined.

Conclusions

The RRs of SUD for any vaccines and any risk periods, even when greater than 1, were almost an order of magnitude lower than the estimates in Germany. The limited increase in RRs found in Italy appears confined to the first dose and may be partly explained by a residual uncontrolled confounding effect of age.     

Hypertension and obesity as cardiovascular risk factors among HIV seropositive patients in Western Kenya

Background

There is increased risk of cardiovascular disease among HIV seropositive individuals. The prevalence of HIV is highest in sub-Saharan Africa; however, HIV-related cardiovascular risk research is largely derived from developed country settings. Herein, we describe the prevalence of hypertension and obesity in a large HIV treatment program in Kenya.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of the electronic medical records of a large HIV treatment program in Western Kenya between 2006 and 2009. We calculated the prevalence of hypertension and obesity among HIV+ adults as well as utilized multiple logistic regression analyses to examine the relationship between clinical characteristics, HIV-related characteristics, and hypertension.

Results

Our final sample size was 12,194. The median systolic/diastolic blood pressures were similar for both sexes (male: 110/70 mmHg, female: 110/70 mmHg). The prevalence of hypertension among men and women were 11.2% and 7.4%, respectively. Eleven percent of men and 22.6% of women were overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 kg/m²). Ordinal logistic regression analyses showed that overweight/obesity was more strongly associated with hypertension among HIV+ men (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.88–3.09) than a higher successive age category (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.40–1.87 comparing 16–35, 36–45 and >45 years categories). Among women, higher age category and overweight/obesity were most strongly associated with hypertension (age category: OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.95–2.50, overweight/obesity: OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.50–2.16). Length of time on protease inhibitors was not found to be related to hypertension for men (OR 1.62, 95% CI 0.42–6.20) or women (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.37–2.65) after adjustment for CD4 count, age and BMI.

Conclusion

In Western Kenya, there is a high prevalence of hypertension and overweight/obesity among HIV+ patients with differences observed between men and women. The care of HIV+ patients in sub-Saharan Africa should also include both identification and management of associated cardiovascular risk factors.     

Long-term mortality in patients with tuberculous meningitis: a Danish nationwide cohort study

Background

With high short-term mortality and substantial excess morbidity among survivors, tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe manifestation of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The objective of this study was to assess the long-term mortality and causes of death in a TBM patient population compared to the background population.

Methods

A nationwide cohort study was conducted enrolling patients notified with TBM in Denmark from 1972–2008 and alive one year after TBM diagnosis. Data was extracted from national registries. From the background population we identified a control cohort of individuals matched on gender and date of birth. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR) and analyse causes of death.

Findings

A total of 55 TBM patients and 550 individuals from the background population were included in the study. Eighteen patients (32.7%) and 107 population controls (19.5%) died during the observation period. The overall MRR was 1.79 (95%CI: 1.09–2.95) for TBM patients compared to the population control cohort. TBM patients in the age group 31–60 years at time of diagnosis had the highest relative risk of death (MRR 2.68; 95%CI 1.34–5.34). The TBM patients had a higher risk of death due to infectious disease, but not from other causes of death.

Conclusion

Adult TBM patients have an almost two-fold increased long-term mortality and the excess mortality stems from infectious disease related causes of death.     

Congenital cytomegalovirus mortality in the United States, 1990-2006

Background

Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the most common intrauterine infection in the United States disproportionately affecting minority races and those of lower socio-economic class. Despite its importance there is little information on the burden of congenital CMV-related mortality in the US. To measure congenital CMV-associated mortality in the US and assess possible racial/ethnic disparities, we reviewed national death certificate data for a 17-year period.

Methods

Congenital CMV-associated deaths from 1990 through 2006 were identified from multiple-cause-coded death records and were combined with US census data to calculate mortality rates.

Results

A total of 777 congenital CMV-associated deaths occurred over the 17-year study period resulting in 56,355 years of age-adjusted years of potential life lost. 71.7% (557) of congenital CMV-associated deaths occurred in infants (age less than 1 year). Age-adjusted mortality rates stratified by race/ethnicity revealed mortality disparities. Age-adjusted rate ratios were calculated for each racial/ethnic group using whites as the reference. Native Americans and African Americans were 2.34 (95% CI, 2.11–2.59) and 1.89 (95% CI, 1.70–2.11) times respectively, more likely to die from congenital CMV than whites. Asians and Hispanics were 0.54 (95% CI, 0.44–0.66) and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.83–1.10) times respectively, less likely to die from congenital CMV than whites.

Conclusions/Significance

Congenital CMV infection causes appreciable mortality in the US exacting a particular burden among African Americans and Native Americans. Enhanced surveillance and increased screening are necessary to better understand the epidemiology of congenital CMV infection in addition to acceleration of vaccine development efforts.     

Unnatural deaths in South African platinum miners, 1992-2008

Background

The mortality rate from unnatural deaths for South Africa is nearly double the world average. Reliable data are limited by inaccurate and incomplete ascertainment of specific causes of unnatural death. This study describes trends in causes of unnatural death between 1992 and 2008 in a cohort of South African miners.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study used routinely-collected retrospective data with cause of death determined from multiple sources including the mine''s human resources database, medical records, death registration, and autopsy. Cause-specific mortality rates and Poisson regression coefficients were calculated by calendar year and age group. The cohort included 40,043 men. One quarter of all 2937 deaths were from unnatural causes (n = 805). Causes of unnatural deaths were road traffic accidents 38% (109/100,000 py), homicides 30% (88/100,000 py), occupational injuries 17% (50/100,000 py), suicides 8% (24/100,000 py), and other accidents 6% (19/100,000 py). Rates of unnatural deaths declined by 2% (95%CI -4%,-1%) per year over the study period, driven by declining rates of road traffic and other accidents. The rate of occupational injury mortality did not change significantly over time (-2% per year, 95%CI -5%,+2%). Unnatural deaths were less frequent in this cohort of workers than in the South African population (IRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.95), particularly homicides (IRR 0.48, 95%CI 0.42–0.55).

Conclusions/Significance

Unnatural deaths were a common cause of preventable and premature death in this cohort of miners. While unnatural death rates declined between 1992 and 2008, occupational fatalities remained at a high level. Evidence-based prevention strategies to address these avoidable deaths are urgently needed.     

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.     

Factors associated with sexual violence against men who have sex with men and transgendered individuals in Karnataka, India

Objectives

There is a lack of information on sexual violence (SV) among men who have sex with men and transgendered individuals (MSM-T) in southern India. As SV has been associated with HIV vulnerability, this study examined health related behaviours and practices associated with SV among MSM-T.

Design

Data were from cross-sectional surveys from four districts in Karnataka, India.

Methods

Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to examine factors related to SV. Multivariable negative binomial regression models examined the association between physician visits and SV.

Results

A total of 543 MSM-T were included in the study. Prevalence of SV was 18% in the past year. HIV prevalence among those reporting SV was 20%, compared to 12% among those not reporting SV (p = .104). In multivariable models, and among sex workers, those reporting SV were more likely to report anal sex with 5+ casual sex partners in the past week (AOR: 4.1; 95%CI: 1.2–14.3, p = .029). Increased physician visits among those reporting SV was reported only for those involved in sex work (ARR: 1.7; 95%CI: 1.1–2.7, p = .012).

Conclusions

These results demonstrate high levels of SV among MSM-T populations, highlighting the importance of integrating interventions to reduce violence as part of HIV prevention programs and health services.     

Estimated HIV incidence in the United States, 2006-2009

Background

The estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200–64,500). We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007–2009 using improved methodology.

Methodology

We estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups.

Principal Findings

Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400–54,700) in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100–62,900) in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800–53,800) in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200–54,000) in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%–39.8%; p = 0.017) increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%–60.4%) increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM). There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p<0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU) 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%.

Conclusions/Significance

Overall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006–2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and ethnic minorities. Expanded, improved, and targeted prevention is necessary to reduce HIV incidence.     

Willingness of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States to be circumcised as adults to reduce the risk of HIV infection

Background

Circumcision reduces HIV acquisition among heterosexual men in Africa, but it is unclear if circumcision may reduce HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States, or whether MSM would be willing to be circumcised if recommended.

Methods

We interviewed presumed-HIV negative MSM at gay pride events in 2006. We asked uncircumcised respondents about willingness to be circumcised if it were proven to reduce risk of HIV among MSM and perceived barriers to circumcision. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify covariates associated with willingness to be circumcised.

Results

Of 780 MSM, 133 (17%) were uncircumcised. Of these, 71 (53%) were willing to be circumcised. Willingness was associated with black race (exact odds ratio [OR]: 3.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3–9.8), non-injection drug use (OR: 6.1, 95% CI: 1.8–23.7) and perceived reduced risk of penile cancer (OR: 4.7, 95% CI: 2.0–11.9). The most commonly endorsed concerns about circumcision were post-surgical pain and wound infection.

Conclusions

Over half of uncircumcised MSM, especially black MSM, expressed willingness to be circumcised. Perceived risks and benefits of circumcision should be a part of educational materials if circumcision is recommended for MSM in the United States.     

Prevalence of and risk factors for trachoma in Kano state, Nigeria

Background

In northern Nigeria, trachoma is an important public health problem, but there are currently few population-based data on prevalence of disease and no formal trachoma control programs.

Methodology / Principal Findings

In Kano state, Nigeria, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey using multistage cluster random sampling, combining examination for clinical signs of trachoma and application of questionnaires assessing potential household-level risk factors. A total of 4491 people were examined in 40 clusters, of whom 1572 were aged 1–9 years, and 2407 (53.6%) were female. In 1–9 year-olds, the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) was 17.5% (95% CI: 15.7–19.5%). In a multivariate model, independent risk factors for active trachoma were the presence of flies on the face (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.30–3.02); a dirty face (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.85–3.25) and presence of animal dung within the compound of residence (OR 3.46, 95% CI 1.62–7.41). The prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in persons aged ≥15years was 10.9% (95% CI: 9.7–12.2%). Trichiasis was significantly more common in adult females than in adult males.

Conclusion/Significance

There is an urgent need for a trachoma control program in Kano state, with emphasis given to provision of good quality trichiasis surgery. Particular effort will need to be made to identify women with trichiasis and engage them with appropriate services while also taking steps to secure azithromycin for mass treatment and ensuring personal and environmental hygiene.     

Rapid increase in prevalence of male circumcision in rural Tanzania in the absence of a promotional campaign

Objectives

To estimate the prevalence of circumcision among young men in rural Mwanza, North-Western Tanzania, and document trends in circumcision prevalence over time. To investigate associations of circumcision with socio-demographic characteristics, reported sexual behaviours and sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

Design

A cross-sectional survey in communities which had previously participated in a cluster-randomized trial of an adolescent sexual health intervention that did not include male circumcision in 20 rural communities.

Methods

In 2007/08, 7300 young men (age 16–23 years) were interviewed and examined by a clinician. The prevalence of circumcision by age was compared with data collected during the trial in 1998–2002. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of circumcision with socio-demographic characteristics, reported sexual behaviours and with HIV and other STIs were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression.

Results

The prevalence of male circumcision was 40.6%, and age-specific prevalence had more than doubled since 2001/2002. Circumcised men reported less risky sexual behaviours, being more likely to report having ever used a condom (adjusted OR = 2.62, 95%CI:2.32–2.95). Men circumcised before sexual debut were at reduced risk of being HIV seropositive compared with non-circumcised men (adjusted OR = 0.50, 95%CI:0.25–0.97), and also had reduced risks of HSV-2 infection and genital ulcer syndrome in the past 12 months compared with non-circumcised men.

Conclusions

There was a steep increase in circumcision prevalence between 2001/02 and 2007/08 in the absence of a promotional campaign. Circumcised men reported safer sexual practices than non-circumcised men and had lower prevalence of HIV and HSV-2 infection.     

Early clinical manifestations associated with death from visceral leishmaniasis

Background

In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil).

Methodology

The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002–2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score.

Principal Findings

Model 1 (period 2002–2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007–2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3–6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2–4.8) and age ≥60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5–4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2–10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3–7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7–27.2) and age ≥60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4–7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%).

Conclusions

Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.