Smaller, scale-free gene networks increase quantitative trait heritability and result in faster population recovery

One of the goals of biology is to bridge levels of organization. Recent technological advances are enabling us to span from genetic sequence to traits, and then from traits to ecological dynamics. The quantitative genetics parameter heritability describes how quickly a trait can evolve, and in turn describes how quickly a population can recover from an environmental change. Here I propose that we can link the details of the genetic architecture of a quantitative trait--i.e., the number of underlying genes and their relationships in a network--to population recovery rates by way of heritability. I test this hypothesis using a set of agent-based models in which individuals possess one of two network topologies or a linear genotype-phenotype map, 16-256 genes underlying the trait, and a variety of mutation and recombination rates and degrees of environmental change. I find that the network architectures introduce extensive directional epistasis that systematically hides and reveals additive genetic variance and affects heritability: network size, topology, and recombination explain 81% of the variance in average heritability in a stable environment. Network size and topology, the width of the fitness function, pre-change additive variance, and certain interactions account for ～75% of the variance in population recovery times after a sudden environmental change. These results suggest that not only the amount of additive variance, but importantly the number of loci across which it is distributed, is important in regulating the rate at which a trait can evolve and populations can recover. Taken in conjunction with previous research focused on differences in degree of network connectivity, these results provide a set of theoretical expectations and testable hypotheses for biologists working to span levels of organization from the genotype to the phenotype, and from the phenotype to the environment.     

Evolution of genetic variability and the advantage of sex and recombination in changing environments.

The role of recombination and sexual reproduction in enhancing adaptation and population persistence in temporally varying environments is investigated on the basis of a quantitative-genetic multilocus model. Populations are finite, subject to density-dependent regulation with a finite growth rate, diploid, and either asexual or randomly mating and sexual with or without recombination. A quantitative trait is determined by a finite number of loci at which mutation generates genetic variability. The trait is under stabilizing selection with an optimum that either changes at a constant rate in one direction, exhibits periodic cycling, or fluctuates randomly. It is shown by Monte Carlo simulations that if the directional-selection component prevails, then freely recombining populations gain a substantial evolutionary advantage over nonrecombining and asexual populations that goes far beyond that recognized in previous studies. The reason is that in such populations, the genetic variance can increase substantially and thus enhance the rate of adaptation. In nonrecombining and asexual populations, no or much less increase of variance occurs. It is explored by simulation and mathematical analysis when, why, and by how much genetic variance increases in response to environmental change. In particular, it is elucidated how this change in genetic variance depends on the reproductive system, the population size, and the selective regime, and what the consequences for population persistence are.     

Field heritability of a plant adaptation to fire in heterogeneous landscapes

The strong association observed between fire regimes and variation in plant adaptations to fire suggests a rapid response to fire as an agent of selection. It also suggests that fire‐related traits are heritable, a precondition for evolutionary change. One example is serotiny, the accumulation of seeds in unopened fruits or cones until the next fire, an important strategy for plant population persistence in fire‐prone ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the potential of this trait to respond to natural selection in its natural setting. For this, we use a SNP marker approach to estimate genetic variance and heritability of serotiny directly in the field for two Mediterranean pine species. Study populations were large and heterogeneous in climatic conditions and fire regime. We first estimated the realized relatedness among trees from genotypes, and then partitioned the phenotypic variance in serotiny using Bayesian animal models that incorporated environmental predictors. As expected, field heritability was smaller (around 0.10 for both species) than previous estimates under common garden conditions (0.20). An estimate on a subset of stands with more homogeneous environmental conditions was not different from that in the complete set of stands, suggesting that our models correctly captured the environmental variation at the spatial scale of the study. Our results highlight the importance of measuring quantitative genetic parameters in natural populations, where environmental heterogeneity is a critical aspect. The heritability of serotiny, although not high, combined with high phenotypic variance within populations, confirms the potential of this fire‐related trait for evolutionary change in the wild.     

Heritability of DNA methylation in threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Epigenetic mechanisms underlying phenotypic change are hypothesized to contribute to population persistence and adaptation in the face of environmental change. To date, few studies have explored the heritability of intergenerationally stable methylation levels in natural populations, and little is known about the relative contribution of cis- and trans-regulatory changes to methylation variation. Here, we explore the heritability of DNA methylation, and conduct methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTLs) analysis to investigate the genetic architecture underlying methylation variation between marine and freshwater ecotypes of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We quantitatively measured genome-wide DNA methylation in fin tissue using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing of F1 and F2 crosses, and their marine and freshwater source populations. We identified cytosines (CpG sites) that exhibited stable methylation levels across generations. We found that additive genetic variance explained an average of 24–35% of the methylation variance, with a number of CpG sites possibly autonomous from genetic control. We also detected both cis- and trans-meQTLs, with only trans-meQTLs overlapping with previously identified genomic regions of high differentiation between marine and freshwater ecotypes. Finally, we identified the genetic architecture underlying two key CpG sites that were differentially methylated between ecotypes. These findings demonstrate a potential role for DNA methylation in facilitating adaptation to divergent environments and improve our understanding of the heritable basis of population epigenomic variation.     

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ～10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.     

How does selfing affect the genetic variance of quantitative traits? An updated meta‐analysis on empirical results in angiosperm species

Most theoretical works predict that selfing should reduce the level of additive genetic variance available for quantitative traits within natural populations. Despite a growing number of quantitative genetic studies undertaken during the last two decades, this prediction is still not well supported empirically. To resolve this issue and confirm or reject theoretical predictions, we reviewed quantitative trait heritability estimates from natural plant populations with different rates of self‐fertilization and carried out a meta‐analysis. In accordance with models of polygenic traits under stabilizing selection, we found that the fraction of additive genetic variance is negatively correlated with the selfing rate. Although the mating system explains a moderate fraction of the variance, the mean reduction of narrow‐sense heritability values between strictly allogamous and predominantly selfing populations is strong, around 60%. Because some nonadditive components of genetic variance become selectable under inbreeding, we determine whether self‐fertilization affects the relative contribution of these components to genetic variance by comparing narrow‐sense heritability estimates from outcrossing populations with broad‐sense heritability estimated in autogamous populations. Results suggest that these nonadditive components of variance may restore some genetic variance in predominantly selfing populations; it remains, however, uncertain how these nonadditive components will contribute to adaptation.     

Evolution of competitive ability: an adaptation speed vs. accuracy tradeoff rooted in gene network size

Ecologists have increasingly come to understand that evolutionary change on short time-scales can alter ecological dynamics (and vice-versa), and this idea is being incorporated into community ecology research programs. Previous research has suggested that the size and topology of the gene network underlying a quantitative trait should constrain or facilitate adaptation and thereby alter population dynamics. Here, I consider a scenario in which two species with different genetic architectures compete and evolve in fluctuating environments. An important trade-off emerges between adaptive accuracy and adaptive speed, driven by the size of the gene network underlying the ecologically-critical trait and the rate of environmental change. Smaller, scale-free networks confer a competitive advantage in rapidly-changing environments, but larger networks permit increased adaptive accuracy when environmental change is sufficiently slow to allow a species time to adapt. As the differences in network characteristics increase, the time-to-resolution of competition decreases. These results augment and refine previous conclusions about the ecological implications of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits, emphasizing a role of adaptive accuracy. Along with previous work, in particular that considering the role of gene network connectivity, these results provide a set of expectations for what we may observe as the field of ecological genomics develops.     

Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population

Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.     

Sex-specific genetic variances in life-history and morphological traits of the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus

Knowledge of heritability and genetic correlations are of central importance in the study of adaptive trait evolution and genetic constraints. We use a paternal half-sib-full-sib breeding design to investigate the genetic architecture of three life-history and morphological traits in the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus. Heritability was significant for all traits under observation and genetic correlations between traits (r(A)) were low. Interestingly, we found substantial sex-specific genetic effects and low genetic correlations between sexes (r(MF)) in traits that are only moderately (weight at emergence) to slightly (longevity) sexually dimorphic. Furthermore, we found an increased sire ([Formula: see text]) compared to dam ([Formula: see text]) variance component within trait and sex. Our results highlight that the genetic architecture even of the same trait should not be assumed to be the same for males and females. Furthermore, it raises the issue of the presence of unnoticed environmental effects that may inflate estimates of heritability. Overall, our study stresses the fact that estimates of quantitative genetic parameters are not only population, time, environment, but also sex specific. Thus, extrapolation between sexes and studies should be treated with caution.     

An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment

Populations can persist in directionally changing environments by evolving. Quantitative genetic theory aims to predict critical rates of environmental change beyond which populations go extinct. Here, we point out that all current predictions effectively assume the same specific fitness function. This function causes selection on the standing genetic variance of quantitative traits to become increasingly strong as mean trait values depart from their optima. Hence, there is no bound on the rate of evolution and persistence is determined by the critical rate of environmental change at which populations cease to grow. We then show that biologically reasonable changes to the underlying fitness function can impose a qualitatively different extinction threshold. In particular, inflection points caused by weakening selection create local extrema in the strength of selection and thus in the rate of evolution. These extrema can produce evolutionary tipping points, where long‐run population growth rates drop from positive to negative values without ever crossing zero. Generic early‐warning signs of tipping points are found to have little power to detect imminent extinction, and require hard‐to‐gather data. Furthermore, we show how evolutionary tipping points produce evolutionary hysteresis, creating extinction debts.     

Lack of nonadditive genetic effects on early fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster

Fecundity is usually considered as a trait closely connected to fitness and is expected to exhibit substantial nonadditive genetic variation and inbreeding depression. However, two independent experiments, using populations of different geographical origin, indicate that early fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster behaves as a typical additive trait of low heritability. The first experiment involved artificial selection in inbred and non-inbred lines, all of them started from a common base population previously maintained in the laboratory for about 35 generations. The realized heritability estimate was 0.151 +/- 0.075 and the inbreeding depression was very small and nonsignificant (0.09 +/- 0.09% of the non-inbred mean per 1% increase in inbreeding coefficient). With inbreeding, the observed decrease in the within-line additive genetic variance and the corresponding increase of the between-line variance were very close to their expected values for pure additive gene action. This result is at odds with previous studies showing inbreeding depression and, therefore, directional dominance for the same trait and species. All experiments, however, used laboratory populations, and it is possible that the original genetic architecture of the trait in nature was subsequently altered by the joint action of random drift and adaptation to captivity. Thus, we carried out a second experiment, involving inbreeding without artificial selection in a population recently collected from the wild. In this case we obtained, again, a maximum-likelihood heritability estimate of 0.210 +/- 0.027 and very little nonsignificant inbreeding depression (0.06 +/- 0.12%). The results suggest that, for fitness-component traits, low levels of additive genetic variance are not necessarily associated with large inbreeding depression or high levels of nonadditive genetic variance.     

Epistasis affecting litter size in mice

Litter size is an important reproductive trait as it makes a major contribution to fitness. Generally, traits closely related to fitness show low heritability perhaps because of the corrosive effects of directional natural selection on the additive genetic variance. Nonetheless, low heritability does not imply, necessarily, a complete absence of genetic variation because genetic interactions (epistasis and dominance) contribute to variation in traits displaying strong heterosis in crosses, such as litter size. In our study, we investigated the genetic architecture of litter size in 166 females from an F2 intercross of the SM/J and LG/J inbred mouse strains. Litter size had a low heritability (h2 = 12%) and a low repeatability (r = 33%). Using interval-mapping methods, we located two quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting litter size at locations D7Mit21 + 0 cM and D12Mit6 + 8 cM, on chromosomes 7 and 12 respectively. These QTL accounted for 12.6% of the variance in litter size. In a two-way genome-wide epistasis scan we found eight QTL interacting epistatically involving chromosomes 2, 4, 5, 11, 14, 15 and 18. Taken together, the QTL and their interactions explain nearly 49% (39.5% adjusted multiple r2) of the phenotypic variation for litter size in this cross, an increase of 36% over the direct effects of the QTL. This indicates the importance of epistasis as a component of the genetic architecture of litter size and fitness in our intercross population.     

Heritability of adult body height: a comparative study of twin cohorts in eight countries.

A major component of variation in body height is due to genetic differences, but environmental factors have a substantial contributory effect. In this study we aimed to analyse whether the genetic architecture of body height varies between affluent western societies. We analysed twin data from eight countries comprising 30,111 complete twin pairs by using the univariate genetic model of the Mx statistical package. Body height and zygosity were self-reported in seven populations and measured directly in one population. We found that there was substantial variation in mean body height between countries; body height was least in Italy (177 cm in men and 163 cm in women) and greatest in the Netherlands (184 cm and 171 cm, respectively). In men there was no corresponding variation in heritability of body height, heritability estimates ranging from 0.87 to 0.93 in populations under an additive genes/unique environment (AE) model. Among women the heritability estimates were generally lower than among men with greater variation between countries, ranging from 0.68 to 0.84 when an additive genes/shared environment/unique environment (ACE) model was used. In four populations where an AE model fit equally well or better, heritability ranged from 0.89 to 0.93. This difference between the sexes was mainly due to the effect of the shared environmental component of variance, which appears to be more important among women than among men in our study populations. Our results indicate that, in general, there are only minor differences in the genetic architecture of height between affluent Caucasian populations, especially among men.     

Realized Sampling Variances of Estimates of Genetic Parameters and the Difference between Genetic and Phenotypic Correlations

A data set of 1572 heritability estimates and 1015 pairs of genetic and phenotypic correlation estimates, constructed from a survey of published beef cattle genetic parameter estimates, provided a rare opportunity to study realized sampling variances of genetic parameter estimates. The distribution of both heritability estimates and genetic correlation estimates, when plotted against estimated accuracy, was consistent with random error variance being some three times the sampling variance predicted from standard formulae. This result was consistent with the observation that the variance of estimates of heritabilities and genetic correlations between populations were about four times the predicted sampling variance, suggesting few real differences in genetic parameters between populations. Except where there was a strong biological or statistical expectation of a difference, there was little evidence for differences between genetic and phenotypic correlations for most trait combinations or for differences in genetic correlations between populations. These results suggest that, even for controlled populations, estimating genetic parameters specific to a given population is less useful than commonly believed. A serendipitous discovery was that, in the standard formula for theoretical standard error of a genetic correlation estimate, the heritabilities refer to the estimated values and not, as seems generally assumed, the true population values.     

Speeding up microevolution: the effects of increasing temperature on selection and genetic variance in a wild bird population

The amount of genetic variance underlying a phenotypic trait and the strength of selection acting on that trait are two key parameters that determine any evolutionary response to selection. Despite substantial evidence that, in natural populations, both parameters may vary across environmental conditions, very little is known about the extent to which they may covary in response to environmental heterogeneity. Here we show that, in a wild population of great tits (Parus major), the strength of the directional selection gradients on timing of breeding increased with increasing spring temperatures, and that genotype-by-environment interactions also predicted an increase in additive genetic variance, and heritability, of timing of breeding with increasing spring temperature. Consequently, we therefore tested for an association between the annual selection gradients and levels of additive genetic variance expressed each year; this association was positive, but non-significant. However, there was a significant positive association between the annual selection differentials and the corresponding heritability. Such associations could potentially speed up the rate of micro-evolution and offer a largely ignored mechanism by which natural populations may adapt to environmental changes.     

A genome scan for quantitative trait loci in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus)

Recent empirical evidence indicates that although fitness and fitness components tend to have low heritability in natural populations, they may nonetheless have relatively large components of additive genetic variance. The molecular basis of additive genetic variation has been investigated in model organisms but never in the wild. In this article we describe an attempt to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for birth weight (a trait positively associated with overall fitness) in an unmanipulated, wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus). Two approaches were used: interval mapping by linear regression within half-sib families and a variance components analysis of a six-generation pedigree of >350 animals. Evidence for segregating QTL was found on three linkage groups, one of which was significant at the genome-wide suggestive linkage threshold. To our knowledge this is the first time that a QTL for any trait has been mapped in a wild mammal population. It is hoped that this study will stimulate further investigations of the genetic architecture of fitness traits in the wild.     

Heritable variation in garter snake color patterns in postglacial populations

Global climate change is expected to trigger northward shifts in the ranges of natural populations of plants and animals, with subsequent effects on intraspecific genetic diversity. Investigating how genetic diversity is patterned among populations that arose following the last Ice Age is a promising method for understanding the potential future effects of climate change. Theoretical and empirical work has suggested that overall genetic diversity can decrease in colonial populations following rapid expansion into postglacial landscapes, with potential negative effects on the ability of populations to adapt to new environmental regimes. The crucial measure of this genetic variation and a population''s overall adaptability is the heritable variation in phenotypic traits, as it is this variation that mediates the rate and direction of a population''s multigenerational response to selection. Using two large full-sib quantitative genetic studies (N_Manitoba = 144; N_{South Dakota} = 653) and a smaller phenotypic analysis from Kansas (N_Kansas = 44), we compared mean levels of pigmentation, genetic variation and heritability in three pigmentation traits among populations of the common garter snake, Thamnophis sirtalis, along a north-south gradient, including a postglacial northern population and a putative southern refuge population. Counter to our expectations, we found that genetic variance and heritability for the three pigmentation traits were the same or higher in the postglacial population than in the southern population.     

Small‐scale spatial variation in evolvability for life‐history traits in the storm petrel

The evolutionary potential in the timing of recruitment and reproduction may be crucial for the ability of populations to buffer against environmental changes, allowing them to avoid unfavourable breeding conditions. The evolution of a trait in a local population is determined by its heritability and selection. In the present study, we performed pedigree‐based quantitative genetic analyses for two life‐history traits (recruiting age and laying date) using population data of the storm petrel over an 18‐year period in two adjacent breeding colonies (only 150 m apart) that share the same environmental conditions. In both traits, natal colony effect was the main source of the phenotypic variation among individuals, and cohort variance for recruitment age and additive genetic variance for laying date were natal colony‐specific. We found significant heritability only in laying date and, more specifically, only in birds born in one of the colonies. The difference in genetic variance between the colonies was statistically significant. Interestingly, selection on earlier breeding birds was detected only in the colony in which heritable variation in laying date was found. Therefore, local evolvability for a life‐history trait may vary within a unexpectedly small spatial scale, through the diversifying natural selection and insulating gene flow. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 439–446.     

Assumption-free estimation of heritability from genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing between full siblings

The study of continuously varying, quantitative traits is important in evolutionary biology, agriculture, and medicine. Variation in such traits is attributable to many, possibly interacting, genes whose expression may be sensitive to the environment, which makes their dissection into underlying causative factors difficult. An important population parameter for quantitative traits is heritability, the proportion of total variance that is due to genetic factors. Response to artificial and natural selection and the degree of resemblance between relatives are all a function of this parameter. Following the classic paper by R. A. Fisher in 1918, the estimation of additive and dominance genetic variance and heritability in populations is based upon the expected proportion of genes shared between different types of relatives, and explicit, often controversial and untestable models of genetic and non-genetic causes of family resemblance. With genome-wide coverage of genetic markers it is now possible to estimate such parameters solely within families using the actual degree of identity-by-descent sharing between relatives. Using genome scans on 4,401 quasi-independent sib pairs of which 3,375 pairs had phenotypes, we estimated the heritability of height from empirical genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing, which varied from 0.374 to 0.617 (mean 0.498, standard deviation 0.036). The variance in identity-by-descent sharing per chromosome and per genome was consistent with theory. The maximum likelihood estimate of the heritability for height was 0.80 with no evidence for non-genetic causes of sib resemblance, consistent with results from independent twin and family studies but using an entirely separate source of information. Our application shows that it is feasible to estimate genetic variance solely from within-family segregation and provides an independent validation of previously untestable assumptions. Given sufficient data, our new paradigm will allow the estimation of genetic variation for disease susceptibility and quantitative traits that is free from confounding with non-genetic factors and will allow partitioning of genetic variation into additive and non-additive components.