A model with space-varying regression coefficients for clustering multivariate spatial count data

Multivariate spatial count data are often segmented by unobserved space-varying factors that vary across space. In this setting, regression models that assume space-constant covariate effects could be too restrictive. Motivated by the analysis of cause-specific mortality data, we propose to estimate space-varying effects by exploiting a multivariate hidden Markov field. It models the data by a battery of Poisson regressions with spatially correlated regression coefficients, which are driven by an unobserved spatial multinomial process. It parsimoniously describes multivariate count data by means of a finite number of latent classes. Parameter estimation is carried out by composite likelihood methods, that we specifically develop for the proposed model. In a case study of cause-specific mortality data in Italy, the model was capable to capture the spatial variation of gender differences and age effects.     

The analysis of disease biomarker data using a mixed hidden Markov model (Open Access publication)

A mixed hidden Markov model (HMM) was developed for predicting breeding values of a biomarker (here, somatic cell score) and the individual probabilities of health and disease (here, mastitis) based upon the measurements of the biomarker. At a first level, the unobserved disease process (Markov model) was introduced and at a second level, the measurement process was modeled, making the link between the unobserved disease states and the observed biomarker values. This hierarchical formulation allows joint estimation of the parameters of both processes. The flexibility of this approach is illustrated on the simulated data. Firstly, lactation curves for the biomarker were generated based upon published parameters (mean, variance, and probabilities of infection) for cows with known clinical conditions (health or mastitis due to Escherichia coli or Staphylococcus aureus). Next, estimation of the parameters was performed via Gibbs sampling, assuming the health status was unknown. Results from the simulations and mathematics show that the mixed HMM is appropriate to estimate the quantities of interest although the accuracy of the estimates is moderate when the prevalence of the disease is low. The paper ends with some indications for further developments of the methodology.     

Remote homology detection of integral membrane proteins using conserved sequence features

Compared with globular proteins, transmembrane proteins are surrounded by a more intricate environment and, consequently, amino acid composition varies between the different compartments. Existing algorithms for homology detection are generally developed with globular proteins in mind and may not be optimal to detect distant homology between transmembrane proteins. Here, we introduce a new profile-profile based alignment method for remote homology detection of transmembrane proteins in a hidden Markov model framework that takes advantage of the sequence constraints placed by the hydrophobic interior of the membrane. We expect that, for distant membrane protein homologs, even if the sequences have diverged too far to be recognized, the hydrophobicity pattern and the transmembrane topology are better conserved. By using this information in parallel with sequence information, we show that both sensitivity and specificity can be substantially improved for remote homology detection in two independent test sets. In addition, we show that alignment quality can be improved for the most distant homologs in a public dataset of membrane protein structures. Applying the method to the Pfam domain database, we are able to suggest new putative evolutionary relationships for a few relatively uncharacterized protein domain families, of which several are confirmed by other methods. The method is called Searcher for Homology Relationships of Integral Membrane Proteins (SHRIMP) and is available for download at http://www.sbc.su.se/shrimp/.     

Fast,scalable generation of high‐quality protein multiple sequence alignments using Clustal Omega

Multiple sequence alignments are fundamental to many sequence analysis methods. Most alignments are computed using the progressive alignment heuristic. These methods are starting to become a bottleneck in some analysis pipelines when faced with data sets of the size of many thousands of sequences. Some methods allow computation of larger data sets while sacrificing quality, and others produce high‐quality alignments, but scale badly with the number of sequences. In this paper, we describe a new program called Clustal Omega, which can align virtually any number of protein sequences quickly and that delivers accurate alignments. The accuracy of the package on smaller test cases is similar to that of the high‐quality aligners. On larger data sets, Clustal Omega outperforms other packages in terms of execution time and quality. Clustal Omega also has powerful features for adding sequences to and exploiting information in existing alignments, making use of the vast amount of precomputed information in public databases like Pfam.     

Predicting species distributions from checklist data using site‐occupancy models

Aim (1) To increase awareness of the challenges induced by imperfect detection, which is a fundamental issue in species distribution modelling; (2) to emphasize the value of replicate observations for species distribution modelling; and (3) to show how ‘cheap’ checklist data in faunal/floral databases may be used for the rigorous modelling of distributions by site‐occupancy models. Location Switzerland. Methods We used checklist data collected by volunteers during 1999 and 2000 to analyse the distribution of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly in Switzerland. We used data from repeated visits to 1‐ha pixels to derive ‘detection histories’ and apply site‐occupancy models to estimate the ‘true’ species distribution, i.e. corrected for imperfect detection. We modelled blue hawker distribution as a function of elevation and year and its detection probability of elevation, year and season. Results The best model contained cubic polynomial elevation effects for distribution and quadratic effects of elevation and season for detectability. We compared the site‐occupancy model with a conventional distribution model based on a generalized linear model, which assumes perfect detectability (p = 1). The conventional distribution map looked very different from the distribution map obtained using site‐occupancy models that accounted for the imperfect detection. The conventional model underestimated the species distribution by 60%, and the slope parameters of the occurrence–elevation relationship were also underestimated when assuming p = 1. Elevation was not only an important predictor of blue hawker occurrence, but also of the detection probability, with a bell‐shaped relationship. Furthermore, detectability increased over the season. The average detection probability was estimated at only 0.19 per survey. Main conclusions Conventional species distribution models do not model species distributions per se but rather the apparent distribution, i.e. an unknown proportion of species distributions. That unknown proportion is equivalent to detectability. Imperfect detection in conventional species distribution models yields underestimates of the extent of distributions and covariate effects that are biased towards zero. In addition, patterns in detectability will erroneously be ascribed to species distributions. In contrast, site‐occupancy models applied to replicated detection/non‐detection data offer a powerful framework for making inferences about species distributions corrected for imperfect detection. The use of ‘cheap’ checklist data greatly enhances the scope of applications of this useful class of models.     

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval‐censored detection times

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy‐detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time‐to‐detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time‐to‐first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval‐censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time‐to‐detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval‐censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P‐values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval‐censored time‐to‐detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy‐detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.     

Enhancement of the hydrolysis activity of F0F1‐ATPases using 60 Hz magnetic fields

The effects of extremely low frequency (ELF) magnetic fields on membrane F₀F₁‐ATPase activity have been studied. When the F₀F₁‐ATPase was exposed to 60 Hz magnetic fields of different magnetic intensities, 0.3 and 0.5 mT magnetic fields enhanced the hydrolysis activity, whereas 0.1 mT exposure caused no significant changes. Even if the F₀F₁‐ATPase was inhibited by N,N‐dicyclohexylcarbodiimide, its hydrolysis activity was enhanced by a 0.5 mT 60 Hz magnetic field. Moreover, when the chromatophores which were labeled with F‐DHPE were exposed to a 0.5 mT, 60 Hz magnetic field, it was found that the pH of the outer membrane of the chromatophore was unchanged, which suggested that the magnetic fields used in this work did not affect the activity of F0. Taken together, our results show that the effects of magnetic fields on the hydrolysis activity of the membrane F₀F₁‐ATPases were dependent on magnetic intensity and the threshold intensity is between 0.1 and 0.3 mT, and suggested that the F1 part of F₀F₁‐ATPase may be an end‐point affected by magnetic fields. Bioelectromagnetics 30:663–668, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Open population maximum likelihood spatial capture‐recapture

Open population capture‐recapture models are widely used to estimate population demographics and abundance over time. Bayesian methods exist to incorporate open population modeling with spatial capture‐recapture (SCR), allowing for estimation of the effective area sampled and population density. Here, open population SCR is formulated as a hidden Markov model (HMM), allowing inference by maximum likelihood for both Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber and Jolly‐Seber models, with and without activity center movement. The method is applied to a 12‐year survey of male jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize, to estimate survival probability and population abundance over time. For this application, inference is shown to be biased when assuming activity centers are fixed over time, while including a model for activity center movement provides negligible bias and nominal confidence interval coverage, as demonstrated by a simulation study. The HMM approach is compared with Bayesian data augmentation and closed population models for this application. The method is substantially more computationally efficient than the Bayesian approach and provides a lower root‐mean‐square error in predicting population density compared to closed population models.     

Modeling activity patterns of wildlife using time‐series analysis

The study of wildlife activity patterns is an effective approach to understanding fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes. However, traditional statistical approaches used to conduct quantitative analysis have thus far had limited success in revealing underlying mechanisms driving activity patterns. Here, we combine wavelet analysis, a type of frequency‐based time‐series analysis, with high‐resolution activity data from accelerometers embedded in GPS collars to explore the effects of internal states (e.g., pregnancy) and external factors (e.g., seasonal dynamics of resources and weather) on activity patterns of the endangered giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Giant pandas exhibited higher frequency cycles during the winter when resources (e.g., water and forage) were relatively poor, as well as during spring, which includes the giant panda's mating season. During the summer and autumn when resources were abundant, pandas exhibited a regular activity pattern with activity peaks every 24 hr. A pregnant individual showed distinct differences in her activity pattern from other giant pandas for several months following parturition. These results indicate that animals adjust activity cycles to adapt to seasonal variation of the resources and unique physiological periods. Wavelet coherency analysis also verified the synchronization of giant panda activity level with air temperature and solar radiation at the 24‐hr band. Our study also shows that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for analyzing high‐resolution activity pattern data and its relationship to internal and external states, an approach that has the potential to inform wildlife conservation and management across species.     

Modeling clustered long‐term survivors using marginal mixture cure model

There is a great deal of recent interests in modeling right‐censored clustered survival time data with a possible fraction of cured subjects who are nonsusceptible to the event of interest using marginal mixture cure models. In this paper, we consider a semiparametric marginal mixture cure model for such data and propose to extend an existing generalized estimating equation approach by a new unbiased estimating equation for the regression parameters in the latency part of the model. The large sample properties of the regression effect estimators in both incidence and the latency parts are established. The finite sample properties of the estimators are studied in simulation studies. The proposed method is illustrated with a bone marrow transplantation data and a tonsil cancer data.     

Bayesian Modeling of ChIP‐chip Data Through a High‐Order Ising Model

Summary ChIP‐chip experiments are procedures that combine chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and DNA microarray (chip) technology to study a variety of biological problems, including protein–DNA interaction, histone modification, and DNA methylation. The most important feature of ChIP‐chip data is that the intensity measurements of probes are spatially correlated because the DNA fragments are hybridized to neighboring probes in the experiments. We propose a simple, but powerful Bayesian hierarchical approach to ChIP‐chip data through an Ising model with high‐order interactions. The proposed method naturally takes into account the intrinsic spatial structure of the data and can be used to analyze data from multiple platforms with different genomic resolutions. The model parameters are estimated using the Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is illustrated using two publicly available data sets from Affymetrix and Agilent platforms, and compared with three alternative Bayesian methods, namely, Bayesian hierarchical model, hierarchical gamma mixture model, and Tilemap hidden Markov model. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method performs as well as the other three methods for the data from Affymetrix tiling arrays, but significantly outperforms the other three methods for the data from Agilent promoter arrays. In addition, we find that the proposed method has better operating characteristics in terms of sensitivities and false discovery rates under various scenarios.     

Studies on Enantioselective Liquid–Liquid Extraction of Amino‐(4‐nitro‐phenyl)‐acetic Acid Enantiomers: Modeling and Optimization

BINAP‐metal complexes were prepared as extractant for enantioselective liquid–liquid extraction (ELLE) of amino‐(4‐nitro‐phenyl)‐acetic acid (NPA) enantiomers. The influence of process variables, including types of organic solvents and metal precursor, concentration of ligand, pH, and temperature on the efficiency of the extraction, were investigated experimentally. An interfacial reaction model was established for insightful understanding of the chiral extraction process. Important parameters required for the model were determined. The experimental data were compared with model predictions to verify the model prediction, It was found that the interfacial reaction model predicted the experimental results accurately. By modeling and experiment, an optimal extraction condition with pH of 7 and host (extractant) concentration of 1 mmol/L was obtained and high enantioselectivity (α_op) of 3.86 and performance factor (pf) of 0.1949 were achieved. Chirality 26:79–87, 2014. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.