Variable coloration is associated with dampened population fluctuations in noctuid moths

Theory and recent reviews state that greater genetic and phenotypic variation should be beneficial for population abundance and stability. Experimental evaluations of this prediction are rare, of short duration and conducted under controlled environmental settings. The question whether greater diversity in functionally important traits stabilizes populations under more complex ecological conditions in the wild has not been systematically evaluated. Moths are mainly nocturnal, with a large variation in colour patterns among species, and constitute an important food source for many types of organisms. Here, we report the results of a long-term (2003–2013) monitoring study of 115 100 noctuid moths from 246 species. Analysis of time-series data provide rare evidence that species with higher levels of inter-individual variation in colour pattern have higher average abundances and undergo smaller between-year fluctuations compared with species having less variable colour patterns. The signature of interspecific temporal synchronization of abundance fluctuations was weak, suggesting that the dynamics were driven by species-specific biotic interactions rather than by some common, density-independent factor(s). We conclude that individual variation in colour patterns dampens population abundance fluctuations, and suggest that this may partly reflect that colour pattern polymorphism provides protection from visually oriented predators and parasitoids.     

Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series

Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.     

The timescale of environmental fluctuations determines the competitive advantages of phenotypic plasticity and rapid evolution

Organisms can respond to fluctuating environments by phenotypic plasticity and rapid evolution, both occurring on similar timescales to the environmental fluctuations. Because each adaptation mechanism has been independently studied, the effects of different adaptation mechanisms on ecological dynamics are not well understood. Here, using mathematical modeling, we compared the advantages of phenotypic plasticity and rapid evolution under conditions where the environment fluctuated between two states on various timescales. The results indicate that the advantages of phenotypic plasticity under environmental fluctuations on different timescales depend on the cost and the speed of plasticity. Both the speed of plastic adaptation and the cost of plasticity affect competition results, while the quantitative effects of them vary depending on the timescales. When the environment fluctuates on short timescales, the two populations with evolution and plasticity coexist, although the population with evolution is dominant. On moderate timescales, the two populations also coexist; however, the population with plasticity becomes dominant. On long timescales, whether the population with phenotypic plasticity or evolution is more advantageous depended on the cost of plasticity. Moreover, our results indicate that the mechanisms resulting in the dominance of the plastic population over the population with evolution are different depending on the timescales of environmental fluctuations. Therefore, the timescales of environmental fluctuations deserve more attention if we are to better understand the detailed competition results underlying phenotypic variation.     

Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic,environmental and population fluctuations

Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments.     

Understanding the population dynamics of a rare, polyvoltine butterfly

Understanding the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors on population dynamics is essential for assessing the viability of populations, setting recovery goals for endangered species, and evaluating management options. Invertebrates are particularly difficult to monitor and few long-term datasets are available for these species. Additionally, limited resources make it necessary to perform monitoring as efficiently as possible. Here, I use the bivoltine Karner blue butterfly Lycaeides melissa samuelis to demonstrate how analyzing the effects of density-dependent factors and weather on separate life stages can be utilized to understand monitoring data, assess populations and identify critical life-history parameters. My first step was to compare the use of peak numbers as an index of population size with estimates obtained from a more data intensive methodology. Peak numbers proved to be an effective index, and so I utilized this index to analyze 10 and 13 years of monitoring data at two Karner blue butterfly sites in New York, USA. I modeled the effects of weather and density dependence on two distinct population growth rates ( λ ) per year. Analysis with Akaike's Information Criteria indicated that both sites were primarily influenced by density dependence during the summer period and by weather conditions during the winter period. Large population declines occurred in the winter period and were a result of the previous year's dry summer and cool spring weather. I conclude that recovery goals for this endangered species should include a second brood-carrying capacity, mean winter growth rate and multiple sites with independent populations. This study represents a rare, long-term study on the population dynamics of a polyvoltine species. Understanding the population dynamics of polyvoltine species, such as the Karner blue butterfly, will assist in the conservation of many invertebrate and small mammal species.     

Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks

1. Geographic gradients in population dynamics may occur because of spatial variation in resources that affect the deterministic components of the dynamics (i.e. carrying capacity, the specific growth rate at small densities or the strength of density regulation) or because of spatial variation in the effects of environmental stochasticity. To evaluate these, we used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate parameters characterizing deterministic components and stochastic influences on population dynamics of eight species of ducks (mallard, northern pintail, blue-winged teal, gadwall, northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback and redhead (Anas platyrhynchos, A. acuta, A. discors, A. strepera, A. clypeata, A. americana, Aythya valisineria and Ay. americana, respectively) breeding in the North American prairies, and then tested whether these parameters varied latitudinally. 2. We also examined the influence of temporal variation in the availability of wetlands, spring temperature and winter precipitation on population dynamics to determine whether geographical gradients in population dynamics were related to large-scale variation in environmental effects. Population variability, as measured by the variance of the population fluctuations around the carrying capacity K, decreased with latitude for all species except canvasback. This decrease in population variability was caused by a combination of latitudinal gradients in the strength of density dependence, carrying capacity and process variance, for which details varied by species. 3. The effects of environmental covariates on population dynamics also varied latitudinally, particularly for mallard, northern pintail and northern shoveler. However, the proportion of the process variance explained by environmental covariates, with the exception of mallard, tended to be small. 4. Thus, geographical gradients in population dynamics of prairie ducks resulted from latitudinal gradients in both deterministic and stochastic components, and were likely influenced by spatial differences in the distribution of wetland types and shapes, agricultural practices and dispersal processes. 5. These results suggest that future management of these species could be improved by implementing harvest models that account explicitly for spatial variation in density effects and environmental stochasticity on population abundance.     

MusselMytilus edulis (Mytilacea) dynamics in relation to environmental gradients and intraspecific interactions

The spatial variations in the densities of adult (>1 year old) musselsMytilus edulis L. in the Exe estuary, South-west England, are investigated in relation to six potentially significant environmental gradients; distance up-estuary and up-shore, substrate softness, mussel bed topography, bed area and proportion covered by algae. The most important correlate of mussel density was the up-shore gradient, as measured by exposure time; mussels were densest just below mid-tide level. The level of recruitment of spat mussels (O yr) to each bed depended on the densities of adults already present; more spat were recruited where adults were denser. Their subsequent mortality was strongly density dependent, with the numbers surviving the winter also being related to the density of adults. Hence the population as a whole was self-sustaining and densities on the individual beds were related to the up-shore gradient of exposure time. The question of how adult densities became established in the first place is therefore discussed. In former times, fishermen laid many mussel beds over the estuary and it is concluded that, once abandoned, only those placed at or below the mid-tide level survived.     

Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling

Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.     

Environmental factors and population fluctuations of Akodon azarae (Muridae: Sigmodontinae) in central Argentina

The aim of this work was to explore the relationship between population density of Akodon azarae (Muridae: Sigmodontinae) and climatic and environmental variables, and determine which of them are associated to within and among‐year changes in rodent abundance in agro‐ecosystems from south Córdoba, Argentina. The study was carried out in a rural area of central Argentina, from 1983 to 2003. Density was estimated as a relative density index (RDI). Temperature, precipitation and humidity were obtained from records of the National University of Rio Cuarto. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature were recorded from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (1983–1998) and Landsat (1998–2003) imagery data sets. We performed simple correlations, multiple regressions and distributed lag analysis. Direct association of climatic and environmental variables with RDI was in general, low. The amount of variability in seasonal changes in density explained by climatic and environmental variables altogether varied from 10% to 70%. Seasonal population fluctuations were influenced by NDVI and rainfall with one and two seasons of delay. Autumn maximum density of the species was also associated with vegetation and rainfall of previous seasons. There also seemed to be an indirect influence of rainfall through vegetation given that we found a positive correlation between them. Results were consistent with basic aspects of the ecology of the species, such as its strong preference for highly covered areas, which provide food and protection from predators, likely increasing its reproductive success. Therefore, in the rural area central Argentina, A. azarae showed seasonal fluctuations with delayed influence of rainfall and vegetation and indirect effects of rainfall.     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

Genetic quality of individuals impacts population dynamics

Ample evidence exists that an increase in the inbreeding level of a population reduces the value of fitness components such as fecundity and survival. It does not follow, however, that these decreases in the components of fitness impact population dynamics in a way that increases extinction risk, because virtually all species produce far more offspring than can actually survive. We analyzed the effects of the genetic quality (mean fitness) of individuals on the population growth rate of seven natural populations in each of two species of wolf spider in the genus Rabidosa , statistically controlling for environmental factors. We show that populations of different sizes, and different inbreeding levels, differ in population dynamics for both species. Differences in population growth rates are especially pronounced during stressful environmental conditions (low food availability) and the stressful environment affects smaller populations (<500 individuals) disproportionately. Thus, even in an invertebrate with an extremely high potential growth rate and strong density-dependent mortality rates, genetic factors contribute directly to population dynamics and, therefore, to extinction risk. This is only the second study to demonstrate an impact of the genetic quality of individual genotypes on population dynamics in a wild population and the first to document strong inbreeding–environment interactions for fitness among populations. Endangered species typically exist at sizes of a few hundred individuals and human activities degrade habitats making them innately more stressful (e.g. global climate change). Therefore, the interaction between genetic factors and environmental stress has important implications for efforts aimed at conserving the Earth's biodiversity.     

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human‐driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years’ duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

Spatial dynamics of Chinese Muntjac related to past and future climate fluctuations

Climate fluctuations in the past and in the future are likely to result in population expansions, shifts, or the contraction of the ecological niche of many species, and potentially leading to the changes in their geographical distributions. Prediction of suitable habitats has been developed as a useful tool for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect wildlife. Here, we model the ancestral demographic history of the extant modern Chinese Muntjac Muntiacus reevesi populations using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and used the maximum entropy model to simulate the past and predict the future spatial dynamics of the species under climate oscillations. Our results indicated that the suitable habitats for the M. reevesi shifted to the Southeast and contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas they covered a broader and more northern position in the Middle Holocene. The ABC analyses revealed that the modern M. reevesi populations diverged in the Middle Holocene coinciding with the significant contraction of the highly suitable habitat areas. Furthermore, our predictions suggest that the potentially suitable environment distribution for the species will expand under all future climate scenarios. These results indicated that the M. reevesi diverged in the recent time after the glacial period and simultaneously as its habitat’s expanded in the Middle Holocene. Furthermore, the past and future climate fluctuation triggered the change of Chinese muntjac spatial distribution, which has great influence on the Chinese muntjac’s population demographic history.     

Interannual population dynamics of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) in France

The hypothesis that similar processes govern interannual dynamics of green spruce aphid in the UK and France, is generally supported by the application of a general discrete model. A simple model based on relatively few parameters was able to closely characterise interannual population dynamics from completely independent aerial and arboreal samples of aphids. Long-term field population estimates of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum (Walker) in France have provided the opportunity to select and evaluate the generality of a model, which was developed in the UK to explain the year-to-year variations in peak abundance of the aphid. The objective was to observe the influence of the local climates and disturbing climate factors on the population densities of the insect in two regions of France. The model uses climate variables and aphid population data from regular samples in the two regions that were investigated. A general discrete model was used to predict aphid population densities. The model performed well in tracking the interannual patterns of population but was less likely to predict absolute population density. To improve predictions, further account would need to be taken of additional site-specific climate variables and the strength of overcompensating density dependence. Nevertheless, it is clear that broadly similar processes are at work in the population dynamics of this insect across its biogeographical range.     

Species with more volatile population dynamics are differentially impacted by weather

Climatic variation has been invoked as an explanation of population dynamics for a variety of taxa. Much work investigating the link between climatic forcings and population fluctuation uses single-taxon case studies. Here, we conduct comparative analyses of a multi-decadal dataset describing population dynamics of 50 co-occurring butterfly species at 10 sites in Northern California. Specifically, we explore the potential commonality of response to weather among species that encompass a gradient of population dynamics via a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework. Results of this analysis demonstrate that certain weather conditions impact volatile, or irruptive, species differently as compared with relatively stable species. Notably, precipitation-related variables, including indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have a more pronounced impact on the most volatile species. We hypothesize that these variables influence vegetation resource availability, and thus indirectly influence population dynamics of volatile taxa. As one of the first studies to show a common influence of weather among taxa with similar population dynamics, the results presented here suggest new lines of research in the field of biotic–abiotic interactions.     

From arctic lemmings to adaptive dynamics: Charles Elton's legacy in population ecology

We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating periodic dynamics which many species display, Elton was insightful and far-sighted enough to outline many of the other hypotheses since put forward as an explanation for the enigmatic long-term dynamics of some animal populations. An interesting, but largely neglected aspect in Elton's paper is that it ends with speculation regarding the evolutionary consequences of periodic population fluctuations. The modern understanding of these issues will also be scrutinised here. In population ecology, Elton's 1924 paper has spawned a whole industry of research on populations displaying multi-annual periodicity. Despite the efforts of numerous research teams and individuals focusing on the origins of multi-annual population cycles, and despite the early availability of different explanatory hypotheses, we are still lacking rigorous tests of some of these hypotheses and, consequently, a consensus of the causes of periodic fluctuations in animal populations. Although Elton would have been happy to see so much effort spent on cyclic populations, we also argue that it is unfortunate if this focus on a special case of population dynamics should distract our attention from more general problems in population and community dynamics.