Why Would Plant Species Become Extinct Locally If Growing Conditions Improve?

Two assumptions underlie current models of the geographical ranges of perennial plant species: 1. current ranges are in equilibrium with the prevailing climate, and 2. changes are attributable to changes in macroclimatic factors, including tolerance of winter cold, the duration of the growing season, and water stress during the growing season, rather than to biotic interactions. These assumptions allow model parameters to be estimated from current species ranges. Deterioration of growing conditions due to climate change, e.g. more severe drought, will cause local extinction. However, for many plant species, the predicted climate change of higher minimum temperatures and longer growing seasons means, improved growing conditions. Biogeographical models may under some circumstances predict that a species will become locally extinct, despite improved growing conditions, because they are based on an assumption of equilibrium and this forces the species range to match the species-specific macroclimatic thresholds. We argue that such model predictions should be rejected unless there is evidence either that competition influences the position of the range margins or that a certain physiological mechanism associated with the apparent improvement in growing conditions negatively affects the species performance. We illustrate how a process-based vegetation model can be used to ascertain whether such a physiological cause exists. To avoid potential modelling errors of this type, we propose a method that constrains the scenario predictions of the envelope models by changing the geographical distribution of the dominant plant functional type. Consistent modelling results are very important for evaluating how changes in species areas affect local functional trait diversity and hence ecosystem functioning and resilience, and for inferring the implications for conservation management in the face of climate change.     

Are corals coming to a reef near you? Projected extension of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coast

Climate change is driving the poleward redistribution of coral species, but the rate and magnitude of future range extensions within temperate regions are rarely quantified. A better understanding of the likely future distribution of corals is needed to anticipate the resulting social, economic and environmental implications. Here, we project the rate and magnitude of extensions of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coastline, using data on coral community presence, in conjunction with historical and projected ocean temperatures. Our projections indicate that temperatures will be suitable for coral communities dominated by the subtropical coral Pocillopora aliciae, currently found off Sydney, to extend their range poleward by 80 (RCP 2.6) to 450 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, corresponding to a rate of 0.9–5.0 km year⁻¹. Similarly, thermal conditions will be such that diverse coral communities, such as those currently occurring in the Solitary Islands, may extend their range by 130 (RCP 2.6) to 580 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, at a rate of 1.4–6.4 km year⁻¹. These projections are similar to those forecast for coral species in other parts of the world. Newly establishing coral communities in temperate regions may provide a range of novel local economic opportunities, particularly for marine tourism.     

The Arrhenatheretum on set-aside at Aldroughty,Elgin

Summary

The Arrhenatheretum on set-aside in two fields at Aldroughty Farm, Elgin, is described. This vegetation is noteworthy because some of the attractive grassland and wetland species in it are very rare on Scottish set-aside. The species involved (e.g. Carex flacca, Dactylorhiza purpurella, Rhinanthus minor) are generally entirely absent from lowland farmed landscapes, but populations do occur in areas of semi-natural habitat at Aldroughty. It is concluded that, as far as most long-term set-aside is concerned, vegetation of greater conservation value does not develop thereon owing to non-availability of the necessary seeds.     

吉林灌木群落物种多样性与气候和局域环境因子的关系

为了研究气候和局域环境因子对物种多样性的相对作用大小,以及验证两种均匀度地理格局的假说在半湿润地区次生灌丛的适用性,对吉林东、南部地区的灌木群落进行了研究。共调查森林破坏后形成的次生灌丛样方45个,结合气候数据和局域环境因子数据,研究了气候、局域环境因子对群落、灌木层、草本层的物种丰富度、均匀度的影响,以及对不同水分生态型(旱生、旱中生、湿中生)灌木影响的差异。结果表明:1)吉林次生灌丛的群落、草本层物种丰富度,以及草本层均匀度,随纬度增加而显著上升。2)对物种多样性和气候、局域环境因子的分析表明,群落、草本层物种数主要受局域环境因子而不是气候的影响;其物种丰富度与纬度的反常关系,是由于灌木层盖度随降水增加而上升,从而导致物种数下降。灌木层物种数与纬度、气候因子的相关性不显著,则是由于不同水分生态型对气候梯度的响应不一致,反映出功能群对多样性格局的影响。3)群落、灌木层均匀度主要受气候因子的影响;而草本层均匀度主要受局域环境因子的影响,降水同样通过对灌木层盖度的影响间接作用于草本均匀度。但群落、灌木和草本层的结果,都支持均匀度随着环境条件改善而增加的假说,而不支持随着生产力增加、竞争加剧,从而导致均匀度下降的假说。结果表明,物种丰富度和均匀度的影响机制存在很大差异,但二者都受到局域环境因子的强烈影响。气候通过局域生物因素(如盖度、生活型)间接作用于多样性格局,是气候对多样性影响的一个重要方面,但尚未得到应有的重视。由于局域生物因素也随气候而变化,仅研究多样性和气候的表面关系,将无法准确预测气候变化对多样性的影响。     

Linking species thermal tolerance to elevational range shifts in upland dung beetles

Climate warming has been proposed as the main cause of the recent range shifts seen in many species. Although species' thermal tolerances are thought to play a key role in determining responses to climate change, especially in ectotherms, empirical evidence is still limited. We investigate the connection between species' thermal tolerances, elevational range and shifts in the lower elevational limit of dung beetle species (Coleoptera, Aphodiidea) in an upland region in the northwest of England. We measured thermal tolerances in the laboratory, and used current and historical distribution data to test specific hypotheses about the area's three dominant species, particularly the species most likely to suffer from warming: Agollinus lapponum. We found marked differences between species in their minimum and maximum thermal tolerance and in their elevational range and patterns of abundance. Overall, differences in thermal limits among species matched the abundance patterns along the elevation gradient expected if distributions were constrained by climate. Agollinus lapponum abundance increased with elevation and this species showed lower maximum and minimum thermal limits than Acrossus depressus, for which abundance declined with elevation. Consistent with lower tolerance to high temperature, we recorded an uphill retreat of the low elevation limit of A. lapponum (177 m over 57 yr) in line with the increase in summer temperature observed in the region over the same period. Moreover, this species has been replaced at low and mid‐elevations by the other two warm‐tolerant species (A. depressus and Agrilinus ater). Our results provide empirical evidence that species' thermal tolerance constrains elevational ranges and contributes to explain the observed responses to climate warming. A mechanistic understanding of how climate change directly affects species, such as the one presented here, will provide a robust base to inform predictions of how individual species and whole assemblages may change in the future.     

Genetic trials improve the transfer of Douglas‐fir distribution models across continents

Climate change is likely to result in novel conditions with no analogy to current climate. Therefore, the application of species distribution models (SDMs) based on the correlation between observed species’ occurrence and their environment is questionable and calls for a better understanding of the traits that determine species occurrence. Here, we compared two intraspecific, trait‐based SDMs with occurrence‐based SDMs, all developed from European data, and analyzed their transferability to the native range of Douglas‐fir in North America. With data from 50 provenance trials of Douglas‐fir in central Europe multivariate universal response functions (URFs) were developed for two functional traits (dominant tree height and basal area) which are good indicators of growth and vitality under given environmental conditions. These trials included 290 North American provenances of Douglas‐fir. The URFs combine genetic effects i.e. the climate of provenance origin and environmental effects, i.e. the climate of planting locations into an integrated model to predict the respective functional trait from climate data. The URFs were applied as SDMs (URF‐SDMs) by converting growth performances into occurrence. For comparison, an ensemble occurrence‐based SDM was developed and block cross validated with the BIOMOD2 modeling platform utilizing the observed occurrence of Douglas‐fir in Europe. The two trait based SDMs and the occurrence‐based SDM, all calibrated with data from Europe, were applied to predict the known distribution of Douglas‐fir in its introduced and native range in Europe and North America. Both models performed well within their calibration range in Europe, but model transfer to its native range in North America was superior in case of the URF‐SDMs showing similar predictive power as SDMs developed in North America itself. The high transferability of the URF‐SDMs is a testimony of their applicability under novel climatic conditions highlighting the role of intraspecific trait variation for adaptation planning in climate change.     

Space-for-time substitution reveals a hump-shaped distribution of dung beetles

Unraveling how climate change impacts the diversity and distribution patterns of organisms is a major concern in ecology, especially with climate-sensitive species, such as dung beetles. Often found in warmer weather conditions, beetles are used as bio-indicators of environmental conditions. By using an altitudinal gradient as a proxy for climate change (i.e., space-for-time substitution), we assessed how changes in climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, impact patterns of dung beetle diversity and distribution in the Peruvian Andes. We recorded dung beetle diversity using three different types of baits, feces, carrion, and fruits, distributed in 18 pitfall traps in five different altitudinal sites (from 900 to 2500 m, 400 m apart from each other) in the rainy and dry season. We found that (i) dung beetle richness and abundance were influenced by the climate gradient, (ii) seasonality influenced beetle richness, which was high in the wet season, but did not influence abundance, (iii) dung beetle richness and abundance fit to a hump-shaped distribution pattern along the altitudinal gradient, and (iv) species richness is the beta-diversity component that best describes the composition of dung beetle species along the altitudinal gradient. Our data show that the distribution and diversity of dung beetles are different at larger scales, with different patterns resulting from the response of species to both abiotic and biotic factors.     

Erosion of community diversity and stability by herbivore removal under warming

Climate change has the potential to influence the persistence of ecological communities by altering their stability properties. One of the major drivers of community stability is species diversity, which is itself expected to be altered by climate change in many systems. The extent to which climatic effects on community stability may be buffered by the influence of species interactions on diversity is, however, poorly understood because of a paucity of studies incorporating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors. Here, I report results of a 10-year field experiment, the past 7 years of which have focused on effects of ongoing warming and herbivore removal on diversity and stability within the plant community, where competitive species interactions are mediated by exploitation through herbivory. Across the entire plant community, stability increased with diversity, but both stability and diversity were reduced by herbivore removal, warming and their interaction. Within the most species-rich functional group in the community, forbs, warming reduced species diversity, and both warming and herbivore removal reduced the strength of the relationship between diversity and stability. Species interactions, such as exploitation, may thus buffer communities against destabilizing influences of climate change, and intact populations of large herbivores, in particular, may prove important in maintaining and promoting plant community diversity and stability in a changing climate.     

Climate change and Australia: Trends,projections and impacts

Abstract This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed ～0.8°C over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4–2.0°C by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0–6.0°C by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover. Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO₂ has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO₂ will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5–1.0°C of warming. Australia lacks the long‐term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate‐change‐related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long‐term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO₂ into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate‐induced change.     

Flowering range changes across an elevation gradient in response to warming summer temperatures

Many studies have demonstrated plant response to warming temperatures, both as advancement in the timing of phenological events and in range shifts. Mountain gradients are ideal laboratories for studying species range changes. In this study of 363 plant species in bloom collected in five segments across a 1200 m (4158 ft) elevation gradient, we look for changes in species flowering ranges over a 20-year period. Ninety-three species (25.6%) exhibited a significant change in the elevation at which they flowered from the first half to the second half of the record, with many of these changes occurring at higher elevations. Most of the species exhibiting the changes were perennial plants. Interestingly, though many changes in flowering range were specific to higher elevations, range changes occurred all across the gradient. The changes reported in this study are concurrent with significant increases in summer temperatures across the region and are consistent with observed changes around the globe.     

Marine species in ambient low‐oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change

We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20–40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen‐rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep‐dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high‐density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep‐dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high‐density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species‐by‐species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low‐oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates.     

怒江河谷入侵植物与乡土植物丰富度的分布格局与影响因子

外来物种入侵严重威胁着乡土植物多样性并削弱了生态系统服务功能。本文基于滇西北怒江河谷植被调查的样方数据, 从群落水平研究了乡土和入侵植物多样性的空间分布格局, 以及地形、气候、人类干扰等因子对两种格局的影响。本研究共记录到外来入侵植物26种, 隶属于13科21属; 乡土植物1,145种, 分属于158科628属。沿着怒江河谷, 入侵植物物种丰富度随纬度与海拔的增加而减少; 乡土物种丰富度则随纬度增加而增加, 并在海拔梯度上呈单峰格局。运用广义线性模型分析公路边缘效应(反映生境干扰)、气候、地形和土壤等环境因素对物种丰富度分布格局的影响。等级方差分离的结果显示, 公路两侧的生境干扰对入侵种和乡土种的丰富度格局均具有首要影响。在自然环境因子中, 降水量是入侵植物丰富度的主要限制因子, 而乡土物种丰富度则主要受到地形因子尤其是坡向的影响。结构方程模型的分析结果也表明, 乡土植物和入侵植物丰富度之间的负相关关系反映了二者对环境响应的差异。本文结果支持物种入侵的资源可利用性限制假说, 并强调了人类活动对生物多样性的负面影响; 乡土植物或已较好地适应了干旱河谷气候, 但并没有显示出对外来物种入侵的抵抗作用。     

Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.     

The use of geographical information systems in biodiversity exploration and conservation

We describe a method for applying geographical information systems (GIS) to exploring biodiversity in the wild relatives of crop species and illustrate its application to the wild common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). We use the latitude, longitude and altitude of the location of origin of each accession in a germplasm collection of wild P. vulgaris, along with long-term monthly mean values of rainfall, temperature and diurnal temperature range for about 10000 stations throughout Latin America to produce maps indicating areas with bean-favouring climates. In a test case, these identify a new suitable area in Colombia where wild P. vulgaris has been reported in the literature, and two more areas which are strong candidates on other grounds. Dividing the bean-favouring climates into clusters identifies areas that have similar climates but are geographically remote, where we can expect to find wild beans with similar ecological adaptation. We discuss the implications of these results for conserving and improving the common bean, and the application of these methods to other species.     

Distribution,diversity and conservation of Anostraca (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) in southern Africa

Southern Africa is defined here as Africa south of the Zambezi and Kunene Rivers. Here, annual average rainfall, rainfall season, and effective temperature are climatic factors which influence anostracan distribution. The type of temporary pool also appears to have some effect on distribution. Areas of high species richness are not confined to any particular climatic region and such areas occur in arid, montane and subtropical regions of southern Africa. Forty-six anostracan species have been recorded from the subcontinent and 80% of these are endemic. IUCN Red Data assessment of species revealed that two species can be considered 'Critically Endangered', while a further four are 'Endangered', and three are 'Vulnerable'. Many parts of southern Africa have been inadequately sampled but in South Africa, where the anostracans are relatively well known, temporary pool inhabitants are threatened mainly by agriculture, urbanization, pollution and pesticides. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau,China

Climate change‐induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche‐based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.     

Patterns and Determinants of Floristic Variation across Lowland Forests of Bolivia

Floristic variation is high in the Neotropics, but little is known about the factors shaping this variation at the mesoscale. We examined floristic composition and its relationship with environmental factors across 220 1‐ha permanent plots in tropical lowland Bolivia. For each plot, abundance of 100 species (93 tree and 7 palm species ≥10 cm diam) was obtained. Climatic data, related to rainfall seasonality and temperature, were interpolated from all available weather stations in the region, and soil properties, related to texture and fertility, were obtained for each plot. Floristic variation was strongly associated with differences in water availability and temperature, and therefore the climatic gradient shaped floristic variation more strongly than the edaphic gradient. Detrended correspondence analysis ordination divided lowland Bolivia primarily into two major groups (Southern Chiquitano region vs. the Amazon region) and a multiple response permutation procedure distinguished five floristic regions. Overall, the tested environmental variables differed significantly among the five regions. Using indicator species analysis, we distinguished 82 strong indicator species, which had significant environmental preferences for one floristic region. These species can be used as indicators of environmental conditions or to determine which floristic region a certain forest belongs. Given the predicted decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature for tropical lowland forests, our gradient approach suggests that species composition may shift drastically with climate change. Abstract in Spanish is available at http://www.blackwell‐synergy.com/loi/btp .