Craniometric Data Supports Demic Diffusion Model for the Spread of Agriculture into Europe

Background

The spread of agriculture into Europe and the ancestry of the first European farmers have been subjects of debate and controversy among geneticists, archaeologists, linguists and anthropologists. Debates have centred on the extent to which the transition was associated with the active migration of people as opposed to the diffusion of cultural practices. Recent studies have shown that patterns of human cranial shape variation can be employed as a reliable proxy for the neutral genetic relationships of human populations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we employ measurements of Mesolithic (hunter-gatherers) and Neolithic (farmers) crania from Southwest Asia and Europe to test several alternative population dispersal and hunter-farmer gene-flow models. We base our alternative hypothetical models on a null evolutionary model of isolation-by-geographic and temporal distance. Partial Mantel tests were used to assess the congruence between craniometric distance and each of the geographic model matrices, while controlling for temporal distance. Our results demonstrate that the craniometric data fit a model of continuous dispersal of people (and their genes) from Southwest Asia to Europe significantly better than a null model of cultural diffusion.

Conclusions/Significance

Therefore, this study does not support the assertion that farming in Europe solely involved the adoption of technologies and ideas from Southwest Asia by indigenous Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of craniometric data for assessing patterns of past population dispersal and gene flow.     

Global patterns of isolation by distance based on genetic and morphological data

The isolation-by-distance model predicts that genetic similarity between populations will decrease exponentially as the geographic distance between them increases, because of the limiting effect of geographic distance on rates of gene flow. Many studies of human populations have applied the isolation-by-distance model to genetic variation between local populations in a limited geographic area, but few have done so on a global level, and these few used different models and analytical methods. I assess genetic variation between human populations across the world using data on red blood cell polymorphisms, microsatellite DNA markers, and craniometric traits. The isolation-by-distance model provides an excellent fit to average levels of genetic similarity within geographic distance classes for all three data sets, and the rate of distance decay is the same in all three. These results suggest that a common pattern of global gene flow mediated by geographic distance is detectable in diverse genetic and morphological data. An alternative explanation is that the correspondence between genetic similarity and geographic distance reflects the history of dispersal of the human species out of Africa.     

Human pelvis and long bones reveal differential preservation of ancient population history and migration out of Africa

One of the main events in the history of our species has been our expansion out of Africa. A clear signature of this expansion has been found on global patterns of neutral genetic variation, whereby a serial founder effect accompanied the colonization of new regions, in turn creating a wilhin-pupulation decrease in neutral genetic diversity with increasing distance from Africa. This same distinctive pattern has also been described for cranial and dental morphological variation in human populations distributed across the globe. Here, we used a data set of postcranial linear measurements for 30 globally distributed human populations, and a climatic data set of minimum annual temperature, maximum annual temperature, and precipitation in order to separate for the first time the relative effect of neutral demographic processes and climatic selection on four long (limb) bones (femur, tibia, radius, and humerus) versus the pelvic bones of the human appendicular skeleton. We implemented a stepwise regression procedure in which phenotypic variance is assumed to be affected by the iterative founder events that accompanied human expansion from Africa, as well as by climate. This model included, as independent factors, geographic distance from central Africa, the three climatic variables, and all possible interactions between the three climatic variables. We excluded all nonsignificant factors by backward stepwise elimination with the aim of identifying the minimal model significantly explaining variation in the phenotypic data. Our results indicate a sharp difference in the way the pelvis and the limb bones reflect the neutral signature of the out-of-Africa expansion. Consistent with previous analyses of the cranium and dentition, pelvic shape variation shows a significant within-population decrease with increasing distance from Africa. However, no such pattern could be found in the long bones. Rather, in the case of both the tibia and the femur, a significant relationship between population-level variance and minimum temperature was demonstrated. Hence, in the case of these limb bones, it is probable that the effects of climatic selection have obliterated the demographic signature of human dispersal from Africa. Our finding mat pelvic variation exhibits the neutral effects of demographic history suggests that consideration of this skeletal element might be used to shed light on factors of human population history, just as the cranium has done.     

Population‐specific deviations of global human craniometric variation from a neutral model

Past studies have revealed that much of human craniometric variation follows a neutral model of population relationships. At the same time, there is evidence for the influence of natural selection in having shaped some global diversity in craniometrics. In order to partition these effects, and to explore other potential population‐specific influences, this article analyzes residuals of craniometric distances from a geographically based neutral model of population structure. W.W. Howells' global craniometric data set was used for these analyses, consisting of 57 measurements for 22 populations around the world, excluding Polynesia and Micronesia because of the relatively recent settlement of these regions. Phenotypic and geographic distances were derived between all pairs of populations. Three‐dimensional multidimensional scaling configurations were obtained for both distance matrices, and compared using a Procrustes rotation method to show which populations do not fit the geographic model. This analysis revealed three major deviations: the Buriat, Greenland Inuit, and Peru. The deviations of the Buriat and Greenland Inuit appear to be related to long‐term adaptation to cold environments. The Peruvian sample is more similar to other New World populations than expected based on geographic distance alone. This deviation likely reflects the evolutionarily recent movement of human populations into South America, such that these populations are further from genetic equilibrium. This same pattern is seen in South American populations in a comparative analysis of classical genetic markers, but not in a comparative analysis of STR loci, perhaps reflecting the higher mutation rate for the latter. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Congruence of individual cranial bone morphology and neutral molecular affinity patterns in modern humans

Recent studies have demonstrated that the shape of the human temporal bone is particularly strongly correlated with neutral genetic expectation, when compared against other cranial regions, such as the vault, face, and basicranium. In turn, this has led to suggestions that the temporal bone is particularly reliable in analyses of primate phylogeny and human population history. While several reasons have been suggested to explain the temporal bone's strong fit with neutral expectation, the temporal bone has never systematically been compared against other individual cranial bones defined using the same biological criteria. Therefore, it is currently unknown whether the shapes of all cranial bones possess reliable information regarding neutral genetic evolution, or whether the temporal bone is unique in this respect. This study tests the hypothesis that the human temporal bone is more congruent with neutral expectation than six other individual cranial bones by correlating population affinity matrices generated using neutral genetic and 3D craniometric data. The results demonstrate that while the temporal bone shows the absolute strongest correlation with neutral genetic data compared with all other bones, it is not statistically differentiated from the sphenoid, frontal, and parietal bones in this regard. Potential reasons for the temporal bone's consistently strong fit with neutral expectation, such as its overall anatomical complexity and/or its contribution to the architecture of the basicranium, are examined. The results suggest that future phylogenetic and taxonomic studies would benefit from considering the shape of the entire cranium minus those regions that deviate most from neutrality. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Multivariate apportionment of global human craniometric diversity

Extensive research in human genetics on presumably neutral loci has shown that the overwhelming majority of human diversity is found among individuals within local populations. Previous apportionments of craniometric diversity are similar to these genetic apportionments, implying that interregionally differing selection pressures have played a limited role in producing contemporary human cranial diversity. Here we show that when cranial variation is independently partitioned using principal components analysis of Mosimann shape variables, some estimates of interregional craniometric differentiation are larger than those for most genetic loci. These estimates are similar to estimates for genetic loci where interregionally differing selection pressures are implicated in producing the observed patterns of variation within and among regions. These results suggest that differences among regions in at least some cranial features, particularly in the nasal region, are in part the product of interregionally differing selection pressures. Moreover, these results have implications for assessing the biological affinities of prehistoric samples that are temporally separated from contemporary human reference populations.     

Morphological variation of major human populations based on nonmetric dental traits

The patterns of inter- and intra-regional variation among 12 major geographical groups from around the world were investigated based on 15 nonmetric dental traits. The R-matrix method was applied using a pooled within-group variance-covariance matrix estimated with the maximum likelihood method (tetrachoric correlation matrix) and the threshold value for each trait estimated by univariate probit analysis. Using average heritability rates that range from 0.40 to 1.00, the inter-regional variation represented by Fst falls between 7.19% and 16.23% of the total variance. This range of variation is compatible with those obtained by genetic, craniometric, and odontometric data. Subsaharan Africans show the largest intra-regional diversity among the groups compared. The degree of intra-regional variation shows, moreover, rough clinalities from subsaharan Africa to peripheral regions. The relationship between regional variation and geographic distance from subsaharan Africa supports serial bottlenecks and the founder effect of ancient populations originating in Africa. The variation of East/Northeast Asians is relatively large, suggesting a complex population history such as possible earlier divergence and multiple migrations from outside sources. The present findings are in agreement with both the recent African model for the origin of anatomically modern humans and the current scenario for human migration history suggested by genetic analyses.     

Genetic evidence for larger African population size during recent human evolution

Genetic evidence suggests that the long-term average effective size of sub-Saharan Africa is larger than other geographic regions. A method is described that allows estimation of relative long-term regional population sizes. This method is applied to 60 microsatellite DNA loci from a sample of 72 sub-Saharan Africans, 63 East Asians, and 120 Europeans. Average heterozygosity is significantly higher in the sub-Saharan African sample. Expected heterozygosity was computed for each region and locus using a population genetic model based on the null hypothesis of equal long-term population sizes. Average residual heterozygosity is significantly higher in the sub-Saharan African sample, indicating that African population size was larger than other regions during recent human evolution. The best fit of the model is with relative population weights of 0.73 for sub-Saharan Africa, 0.09 for East Asia, and 0.18 for Europe. These results are similar to those obtained using craniometric variation for these three geographic regions. These results, combined with inferences from other genetic studies, support a major role of Africa in the origin of modern humans. It is less clear, however, whether complete African replacement is the most appropriate model. An alternative is an African origin with non-African gene flow. While Africa is an important region in recent human evolution, it is not clear whether the gene pool of our species is completely out of Africa or predominately out of Africa.     

The relative efficacy of functional and developmental cranial modules for reconstructing global human population history

This study tests the relative efficacy of human cranial modules, defined on the basis of developmental and functional criteria, for reconstructing neutral genetic population history. Specifically, two hypotheses were tested: 1) The "basicranial hypothesis" predicts that the endochondrally ossifying basicranium will be more reliable for reconstructing population history than intramembranously ossifying regions of the human cranium. This is based on the assumption that early ossification of the basicranium and its distinct functional constraints produce a cranial structure that is relatively immune to non-neutral evolutionary forces. 2) The "single function hypothesis" predicts that cranial regions associated with a single (sensory) function are less reliable indicators of neutral genetic history. Here the prediction is based on the logic that complex, multi-functional, integrated cranial regions are less likely toexhibit homoplasy and, therefore, provide a more accurate morphological proxy for genetic relationships. The congruence between craniometric affinity matrices and neutral genetic population matrices based on autosomal microsatellite and classical markers was assessed using a series of Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests. The results did not support the predictions of the "basicranial hypothesis," as the endochondrally ossifying basicranium was not significantly more congruent with the genetic data than intramembraneously ossifying modules. Moreover, although the results provided some support for the "single function hypothesis," defining cranial modules on the basis of anatomical or functional complexity did not provide a consistent means of predicting their phylogenetic efficacy. These results have important implications for building an accurate inference model of cranial evolution in the human fossil record.     

The impact of founder effects, gene flow, and European admixture on native American genetic diversity

Recent studies have concluded that the global pattern of neutral genetic diversity in humans reflects a series of founder effects and population movements associated with our recent expansion out of Africa. In contrast, regional studies tend to emphasize the significance of more complex patterns of colonization, gene flow, and secondary population movements in shaping patterns of diversity. Our objective in this study is to examine how founder effects, gene flow, and European admixture have molded patterns of neutral genetic diversity in the Americas. Our strategy is to test the fit of a serial founder effects process to the pattern of neutral autosomal genetic variation and to examine the contribution of gene flow and European admixture to departures from fit. The genetic data consist of 678 autosomal microsatellite loci assayed by Wang and colleagues in 530 individuals in 29 widely distributed Native American populations. We find that previous evidence for serial founder effects in the Americas may be driven in part by high levels of European admixture in northern North America, intermediate levels in Central America, and low levels in eastern South America. Geographically patterned admixture may also account for previously reported genetic differences between Andean and Amazonian groups. Though admixture has obscured the precise details of precontact evolutionary processes, we find that genetic diversity is still largely hierarchically structured and that gene flow between neighboring groups has had surprisingly little impact on macrogeographic patterns of genetic diversity in the Americas.     

Human skin color diversity is highest in sub-Saharan African populations

Previous studies of genetic and craniometric traits have found higher levels of within-population diversity in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other geographic regions. This study examines regional differences in within-population diversity of human skin color. Published data on skin reflectance were collected for 98 male samples from eight geographic regions: sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, Europe, West Asia, Southwest Asia, South Asia, Australasia, and the New World. Regional differences in local within-population diversity were examined using two measures of variability: the sample variance and the sample coefficient of variation. For both measures, the average level of within-population diversity is higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in other geographic regions. This difference persists even after adjusting for a correlation between within-population diversity and distance from the equator. Though affected by natural selection, skin color variation shows the same pattern of higher African diversity as found with other traits.     

Craniometric variation,genetic theory,and modern human origins

Recent controversies surrounding models of modern human origins have focused on among-group variation, particularly the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and, the dating of population divergence. Problems in tree estimation have been seen as weakening the case for a replacement model and favoring a multiregional evolution model. There has been less discussion of patterns of within-group variation, although the mtDNA evidence has consistently shown the greatest diversity within African populations. Problems of interpretation abound given the numerous factors that can influence within-group variation, including the possibility of earlier divergence, differences in population size, patterns of population expansion, and variation in migration rates. We present a model of within-group phenotypic variation and apply it to a large set of craniometric data representing major Old World geographic regions (57 measurements for 1,159 cases in four regions: Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Australasia, and the Far East). The model predicts a linear relationship between variation within populations (the average within-group variance) and variation between populations (the genetic distance of populations to pooled phenotypic means). On a global level this relationship should hold if the long-term effective population sizes of each region are correctly specified. Other potential effects on withingroup variation are accounted for by the model. Comparison of observed and expected variances under the assumption of equal effective sizes for four regions indicates significantly greater within-group variation in Africa and significantly less within-group variation in Europe. These results suggest that the long-term effective population size was greatest in Africa. Closer examination of the model suggests that the long-term African effective size was roughly three times that of any other geographic region. Using these estimates of relative population size, we present a method for analyzing ancient population structure, which provides estimates of ancient migration. This method allows us to reconstruct migration history between geographic regions after adjustment for the effect of genetic drift on interpopulational distances. Our results show a clear isolation of Africa from other regions. We then present a method that allows direct estimation of the ancient migration matrix, thus providing us with information on the actual extent of interregional migration. These methods also provide estimates of time frames necessary to reach genetic equilibrium. The ultimate goal is extracting as much information from present-day patterns of human variation relevannt to issues of human origins. Our results are in agreement with mismatch distribution analysis of mtDNA, and they support a “weak Garden o Eden” model. In this model, modern-day variation can be explained by divergence from an initial source (perhaps Africa) into a number o small isolated populations, followed by later population expansion throughout our species. The major populationn expansions of Homo sapiens during and after the late Pleistocene have had the effect of “freezing” ancient patterns of population structure. While this is not the only possible scenario, we do note the close agreement with ecent analyses of mtDNA mismatch distibutions. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Dispersal in the course of an invasion

Invasive species receive attention as manifestations of global ecological change and because of the effects that they may have on other organisms. They are commonly discussed in the context of the ecological perturbations or the human activities that permitted the invasion. There is also evidence, that there is an intrinsic component to biological invasions in that evolutionary changes of the invaders themselves can facilitate or limit invasions (Lee 2002; Urban et al. 2007; Van Bocxlaer et al. 2010). Hence, teasing apart whether environmental change or changes of the organism foster invasions is an interesting field of research. Ample evidence for plants and animals documents that ecological change and human activities trigger range expansions and invasions, but questions regarding evolutionary change of invaders remain less explored although there are several reasons to believe it matters. Firstly, rapid evolutionary change is possible in time-frames relevant for contemporary biological invasions(Hendry et al. 2007). Furthermore, population genetic modelling suggests that there are circumstances where the range expansion and colonization of empty spaces in the course of an invasion can induce evolutionary change in a way that is specific to invaders: the process of repeated founding out of marginal populations in the course of a range expansion can shift allele frequencies and has been referred to as allele surfing, which not only affects neutral genetic variance, but also fitness relevant traits (Klopfstein et al. 2006; Travis et al. 2007; Burton & Travis 2008). Importantly, this process poses a null model for evolutionary inference in invasive populations. It predicts conspicuous allele frequency changes in an expanding metapopulation unless migration homogenizes the gene pool. Despite this relevance, ideas about allele surfing rely heavily on modelling although some experimental evidence comes from studies that document the segregation of genetic variants in growing plaques of bacteria (Hallatschek et al. 2007). To date, little empirical data is available that would reveal the migration processes that affect the establishment of gene pools at invasion fronts in natural systems. This aspect sets the study of Bronnenhuber et al. (2011) apart. They quantify migration behind the expansion front of an invading fish and thus provide important baseline data for the interpretation of the emerging patterns of genetic differentiation.     

Long‐distance dispersal maximizes evolutionary potential during rapid geographic range expansion

Conventional wisdom predicts that sequential founder events will cause genetic diversity to erode in species with expanding geographic ranges, limiting evolutionary potential at the range margin. Here, we show that invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in South Africa preserve genetic diversity during range expansion, possibly as a result of frequent long‐distance dispersal events. We further show that unfavourable environmental conditions trigger enhanced dispersal, as indicated by signatures of selection detected across the expanding range. This brings genetic variation to the expansion front, counterbalancing the cumulative effects of sequential founding events and optimizing standing genetic diversity and thus evolutionary potential at range margins during spread. Therefore, dispersal strategies should be highlighted as key determinants of the ecological and evolutionary performances of species in novel environments and in response to global environmental change.     

Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans

The “Weak Garden of Eden” model for the origin and dispersal of modern humans (Harpendinget al., 1993) posits that modern humans spread into separate regions from a restricted source, around 100 ka (thousand years ago), then passed through population bottlenecks. Around 50 ka, dramatic growth occurred within dispersed populations that were genetically isolated from each other. Population growth began earliest in Africa and later in Eurasia and is hypothesized to have been caused by the invention and spread of a more efficient Later Stone Age/Upper Paleolithic technology, which developed in equatorial Africa.Climatic and geological evidence suggest an alternative hypothesis for Late Pleistocene population bottlenecks and releases. The last glacial period was preceded by one thousand years of the coldest temperatures of the Later Pleistocene (∼71–70 ka), apparently caused by the eruption of Toba, Sumatra. Toba was the largest known explosive eruption of the Quaternary. Toba's volcanic winter could have decimated most modern human populations, especially outside of isolated tropical refugia. Release from the bottleneck could have occurred either at the end of this hypercold phase, or 10,000 years later, at the transition from cold oxygen isotope stage 4 to warmer stage 3. The largest populations surviving through the bottleneck should have been found in the largest tropical refugia, and thus in equatorial Africa. High genetic diversity in modern Africans may thus reflect a less severe bottleneck rather than earlier population growth.Volcanic winter may have reduced populations to levels low enough for founder effects, genetic drift and local adaptations to produce rapid population differentiation. If Toba caused the bottlenecks, then modern human races may have differentiated abruptly, only 70 thousand years ago.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the invasive alien red swamp crayfish

High genetic diversity is thought to characterize successful invasive species, as the potential to adapt to new environments is enhanced and inbreeding is reduced. The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, native to northeastern Mexico and south-central USA was introduced to Nanjing, China from Japan in 1929. Little is known about the genetic diversity and population structure of this species in China. We examined the genetic diversity and population structure of six P. clarkii populations using nine polymorphic microsatellites. Among the six populations, Nanjing population showed the highest allele number, allele richness and gene diversity, which is consistent with records indicating Nanjing may be the first site of introduction. In all six populations, significant heterozygote deficit was observed, suggesting founder effects and non-random mating. Analysis of bottleneck under infinite allele model, stepwise mutation model and two-phased model of mutation revealed evidence of a recent bottleneck in all these populations. Pairwise genetic distance analysis, AMOVA and assignment tests demonstrated high genetic differentiation between populations. Pairwise genetic distance did not fit the pairwise geographic distance, suggesting that human mediated dispersal have played a role in the population expansion and genetic differentiation.     

Apportionment of global human genetic diversity based on craniometrics and skin color

A number of analyses of classical genetic markers and DNA polymorphisms have shown that the majority of human genetic diversity exists within local populations (approximately 85%), with much less among local populations (approximately 5%) or between major geographic regions or "races" (approximately 10%). Previous analysis of craniometric variation (Relethford [1994] Am J Phys Anthropol 95:53-62) found that between 11-14% of global diversity exists among geographic regions, with the remaining diversity existing within regions. The methods used in this earlier paper are extended to a hierarchical partitioning of genetic diversity in quantitative traits, allowing for assessment of diversity among regions, among local populations within regions, and within local populations. These methods are applied to global data on craniometric variation (57 traits) and skin color. Multivariate analysis of craniometric variation shows results similar to those obtained from genetic markers and DNA polymorphisms: roughly 13% of the total diversity is among regions, 6% among local populations within regions, and 81% within local populations. This distribution is concordant with neutral genetic markers. Skin color shows the opposite pattern, with 88% of total variation among regions, 3% among local populations within regions, and 9% within local populations, a pattern shaped by natural selection. The apportionment of genetic diversity in skin color is atypical, and cannot be used for purposes of classification. If racial groups are based on skin color, it appears unlikely that other genetic and quantitative traits will show the same patterns of variation.     

Genomic evidence for an African expansion of anatomically modern humans by a Southern route

There is general agreement among scientists about a recent (less than 200,000 yrs ago) African origin of anatomically modern humans, whereas there is still uncertainty about whether, and to what extent, they admixed with archaic populations, which thus may have contributed to the modern populations' gene pools. Data on cranial morphology have been interpreted as suggesting that, before the main expansion from Africa through the Near East, anatomically modern humans may also have taken a Southern route from the Horn of Africa through the Arabian peninsula to India, Melanesia and Australia, about 100,000 yrs ago. This view was recently supported by archaeological findings demonstrating human presence in Eastern Arabia >90,000 yrs ago. In this study we analyzed genetic variation at 111,197 nuclear SNPs in nine populations (Kurumba, Chenchu, Kamsali, Madiga, Mala, Irula, Dalit, Chinese, Japanese), chosen because their genealogical relationships are expected to differ under the alternative models of expansion (single vs. multiple dispersals). We calculated correlations between genomic distances, and geographic distances estimated under the alternative assumptions of a single dispersal, or multiple dispersals, and found a significantly stronger association for the multiple dispersal model. If confirmed, this result would cast doubts on the possibility that some non-African populations (i.e., those whose ancestors expanded through the Southern route) may have had any contacts with Neandertals.     

Metric dental variation of major human populations

Mesiodistal and buccolingual crown diameters of all teeth recorded in 72 major human population groups and seven geographic groups were analyzed. The results obtained are fivefold. First, the largest teeth are found among Australians, followed by Melanesians, Micronesians, sub-Saharan Africans, and Native Americans. Philippine Negritos, Jomon/Ainu, and Western Eurasians have small teeth, while East/Southeast Asians and Polynesians are intermediate in overall tooth size. Second, in terms of odontometric shape factors, world extremes are Europeans, aboriginal New World populations, and to a lesser extent, Australians. Third, East/Southeast Asians share similar dental features with sub-Saharan Africans, and fall in the center of the phenetic space occupied by a wide array of samples. Fourth, the patterning of dental variation among major geographic populations is more or less consistent with those obtained from genetic and craniometric data. Fifth, once differences in population size between sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, South/West Asia, Australia, and Far East, and genetic drift are taken into consideration, the pattern of sub-Saharan African distinctiveness becomes more or less comparable to that based on genetic and craniometric data. As such, worldwide patterning of odontometric variation provides an additional avenue in the ongoing investigation of the origin(s) of anatomically modern humans.     

Modelling the Geographical Origin of Rice Cultivation in Asia Using the Rice Archaeological Database

We have compiled an extensive database of archaeological evidence for rice across Asia, including 400 sites from mainland East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. This dataset is used to compare several models for the geographical origins of rice cultivation and infer the most likely region(s) for its origins and subsequent outward diffusion. The approach is based on regression modelling wherein goodness of fit is obtained from power law quantile regressions of the archaeologically inferred age versus a least-cost distance from the putative origin(s). The Fast Marching method is used to estimate the least-cost distances based on simple geographical features. The origin region that best fits the archaeobotanical data is also compared to other hypothetical geographical origins derived from the literature, including from genetics, archaeology and historical linguistics. The model that best fits all available archaeological evidence is a dual origin model with two centres for the cultivation and dispersal of rice focused on the Middle Yangtze and the Lower Yangtze valleys.