Estimation of Global Network Statistics from Incomplete Data

Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar''s hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.     

Evaluating scaling models in biology using hierarchical Bayesian approaches

Theoretical models for allometric relationships between organismal form and function are typically tested by comparing a single predicted relationship with empirical data. Several prominent models, however, predict more than one allometric relationship, and comparisons among alternative models have not taken this into account. Here we evaluate several different scaling models of plant morphology within a hierarchical Bayesian framework that simultaneously fits multiple scaling relationships to three large allometric datasets. The scaling models include: inflexible universal models derived from biophysical assumptions (e.g. elastic similarity or fractal networks), a flexible variation of a fractal network model, and a highly flexible model constrained only by basic algebraic relationships. We demonstrate that variation in intraspecific allometric scaling exponents is inconsistent with the universal models, and that more flexible approaches that allow for biological variability at the species level outperform universal models, even when accounting for relative increases in model complexity.     

Emergence of Scale-Free Close-Knit Friendship Structure in Online Social Networks

Although the structural properties of online social networks have attracted much attention, the properties of the close-knit friendship structures remain an important question. Here, we mainly focus on how these mesoscale structures are affected by the local and global structural properties. Analyzing the data of four large-scale online social networks reveals several common structural properties. It is found that not only the local structures given by the indegree, outdegree, and reciprocal degree distributions follow a similar scaling behavior, the mesoscale structures represented by the distributions of close-knit friendship structures also exhibit a similar scaling law. The degree correlation is very weak over a wide range of the degrees. We propose a simple directed network model that captures the observed properties. The model incorporates two mechanisms: reciprocation and preferential attachment. Through rate equation analysis of our model, the local-scale and mesoscale structural properties are derived. In the local-scale, the same scaling behavior of indegree and outdegree distributions stems from indegree and outdegree of nodes both growing as the same function of the introduction time, and the reciprocal degree distribution also shows the same power-law due to the linear relationship between the reciprocal degree and in/outdegree of nodes. In the mesoscale, the distributions of four closed triples representing close-knit friendship structures are found to exhibit identical power-laws, a behavior attributed to the negligible degree correlations. Intriguingly, all the power-law exponents of the distributions in the local-scale and mesoscale depend only on one global parameter, the mean in/outdegree, while both the mean in/outdegree and the reciprocity together determine the ratio of the reciprocal degree of a node to its in/outdegree. Structural properties of numerical simulated networks are analyzed and compared with each of the four real networks. This work helps understand the interplay between structures on different scales in online social networks.     

Evolution of opinions on social networks in the presence of competing committed groups

Public opinion is often affected by the presence of committed groups of individuals dedicated to competing points of view. Using a model of pairwise social influence, we study how the presence of such groups within social networks affects the outcome and the speed of evolution of the overall opinion on the network. Earlier work indicated that a single committed group within a dense social network can cause the entire network to quickly adopt the group''s opinion (in times scaling logarithmically with the network size), so long as the committed group constitutes more than about of the population (with the findings being qualitatively similar for sparse networks as well). Here we study the more general case of opinion evolution when two groups committed to distinct, competing opinions and , and constituting fractions and of the total population respectively, are present in the network. We show for stylized social networks (including Erdös-Rényi random graphs and Barabási-Albert scale-free networks) that the phase diagram of this system in parameter space consists of two regions, one where two stable steady-states coexist, and the remaining where only a single stable steady-state exists. These two regions are separated by two fold-bifurcation (spinodal) lines which meet tangentially and terminate at a cusp (critical point). We provide further insights to the phase diagram and to the nature of the underlying phase transitions by investigating the model on infinite (mean-field limit), finite complete graphs and finite sparse networks. For the latter case, we also derive the scaling exponent associated with the exponential growth of switching times as a function of the distance from the critical point.     

An Adaptive Complex Network Model for Brain Functional Networks

Brain functional networks are graph representations of activity in the brain, where the vertices represent anatomical regions and the edges their functional connectivity. These networks present a robust small world topological structure, characterized by highly integrated modules connected sparsely by long range links. Recent studies showed that other topological properties such as the degree distribution and the presence (or absence) of a hierarchical structure are not robust, and show different intriguing behaviors. In order to understand the basic ingredients necessary for the emergence of these complex network structures we present an adaptive complex network model for human brain functional networks. The microscopic units of the model are dynamical nodes that represent active regions of the brain, whose interaction gives rise to complex network structures. The links between the nodes are chosen following an adaptive algorithm that establishes connections between dynamical elements with similar internal states. We show that the model is able to describe topological characteristics of human brain networks obtained from functional magnetic resonance imaging studies. In particular, when the dynamical rules of the model allow for integrated processing over the entire network scale-free non-hierarchical networks with well defined communities emerge. On the other hand, when the dynamical rules restrict the information to a local neighborhood, communities cluster together into larger ones, giving rise to a hierarchical structure, with a truncated power law degree distribution.     

Mutual trust and cooperation in the evolutionary hawks–doves game

Using a new dynamical network model of society in which pairwise interactions are weighted according to mutual satisfaction, we show that cooperation is the norm in the hawks–doves game when individuals are allowed to break ties with undesirable neighbors and to make new acquaintances in their extended neighborhood. Moreover, cooperation is robust with respect to rather strong strategy perturbations. We also discuss the empirical structure of the emerging networks, and the reasons that allow cooperators to thrive in the population. Given the metaphorical importance of this game for social interaction, this is an encouraging positive result as standard theory for large mixing populations prescribes that a certain fraction of defectors must always exist at equilibrium.     

Cell motion, contractile networks, and the physics of interpenetrating reactive flow.

In this paper we propose a physical model of contractile biological polymer networks based on the notion of reactive interpenetrating flow. We show how our model leads to a mathematical formulation of the dynamical laws governing the behavior of contractile networks. We also develop estimates of the various parameters that appear in our equations, and we discuss some elementary predictions of the model concerning the general scaling principles that pertain to the motions of contractile networks.     

Self-organization in Balanced State Networks by STDP and Homeostatic Plasticity

Structural inhomogeneities in synaptic efficacies have a strong impact on population response dynamics of cortical networks and are believed to play an important role in their functioning. However, little is known about how such inhomogeneities could evolve by means of synaptic plasticity. Here we present an adaptive model of a balanced neuronal network that combines two different types of plasticity, STDP and synaptic scaling. The plasticity rules yield both long-tailed distributions of synaptic weights and firing rates. Simultaneously, a highly connected subnetwork of driver neurons with strong synapses emerges. Coincident spiking activity of several driver cells can evoke population bursts and driver cells have similar dynamical properties as leader neurons found experimentally. Our model allows us to observe the delicate interplay between structural and dynamical properties of the emergent inhomogeneities. It is simple, robust to parameter changes and able to explain a multitude of different experimental findings in one basic network.     

Social experience organizes parallel networks in sensory and limbic forebrain

Successful social behavior can directly influence an individual's reproductive success. Therefore, many organisms readily modify social behavior based on past experience. The neural changes induced by social experience, however, remain to be fully elucidated. We hypothesize that social modulation of neural systems not only occurs at the level of individual nuclei, but also of functional networks, and their relationships with behavior. We used the green anole lizard (Anolis carolinensis), which displays stereotyped, visually triggered social behaviors particularly suitable for comparisons of multiple functional networks in a social context, to test whether repeated aggressive interactions modify behavior and metabolic activity in limbic-hypothalamic and sensory forebrain regions, assessed by quantitative cytochrome oxidase (a slowly accumulating endogenous metabolic marker) histochemistry. We found that aggressive interactions potentiate aggressive behavior, induce changes in activities of individual nuclei, and organize context-specific functional neural networks. Surprisingly, this experiential effect is not only present in a limbic-hypothalamic network, but also extends to a sensory forebrain network directly relevant to the behavioral expression. Our results suggest that social experience modulates organisms' social behavior via modifying sensory and limbic neural systems in parallel both at the levels of individual regions and networks, potentially biasing perceptual as well as limbic processing.     

Multisite phosphorylation and network dynamics of cyclin-dependent kinase signaling in the eukaryotic cell cycle

Multisite phosphorylation of regulatory proteins has been proposed to underlie ultrasensitive responses required to generate nontrivial dynamics in complex biological signaling networks. We used a random search strategy to analyze the role of multisite phosphorylation of key proteins regulating cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) activity in a model of the eukaryotic cell cycle. We show that multisite phosphorylation of either CDK, CDC25, wee1, or CDK-activating kinase is sufficient to generate dynamical behaviors including bistability and limit cycles. Moreover, combining multiple feedback loops based on multisite phosphorylation do not destabilize the cell cycle network by inducing complex behavior, but rather increase the overall robustness of the network. In this model we find that bistability is the major dynamical behavior of the CDK signaling network, and that negative feedback converts bistability into limit cycle behavior. We also compare the dynamical behavior of several simplified models of CDK regulation to the fully detailed model. In summary, our findings suggest that multisite phosphorylation of proteins is a critical biological mechanism in generating the essential dynamics and ensuring robust behavior of the cell cycle.     

Entropy of dynamical social networks

Human dynamical social networks encode information and are highly adaptive. To characterize the information encoded in the fast dynamics of social interactions, here we introduce the entropy of dynamical social networks. By analysing a large dataset of phone-call interactions we show evidence that the dynamical social network has an entropy that depends on the time of the day in a typical week-day. Moreover we show evidence for adaptability of human social behavior showing data on duration of phone-call interactions that significantly deviates from the statistics of duration of face-to-face interactions. This adaptability of behavior corresponds to a different information content of the dynamics of social human interactions. We quantify this information by the use of the entropy of dynamical networks on realistic models of social interactions.     

What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible-infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks.     

Dynamic properties of network motifs contribute to biological network organization

Biological networks, such as those describing gene regulation, signal transduction, and neural synapses, are representations of large-scale dynamic systems. Discovery of organizing principles of biological networks can be enhanced by embracing the notion that there is a deep interplay between network structure and system dynamics. Recently, many structural characteristics of these non-random networks have been identified, but dynamical implications of the features have not been explored comprehensively. We demonstrate by exhaustive computational analysis that a dynamical property—stability or robustness to small perturbations—is highly correlated with the relative abundance of small subnetworks (network motifs) in several previously determined biological networks. We propose that robust dynamical stability is an influential property that can determine the non-random structure of biological networks.     

Network Structure and Biased Variance Estimation in Respondent Driven Sampling

This paper explores bias in the estimation of sampling variance in Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Prior methodological work on RDS has focused on its problematic assumptions and the biases and inefficiencies of its estimators of the population mean. Nonetheless, researchers have given only slight attention to the topic of estimating sampling variance in RDS, despite the importance of variance estimation for the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. In this paper, we show that the estimators of RDS sampling variance rely on a critical assumption that the network is First Order Markov (FOM) with respect to the dependent variable of interest. We demonstrate, through intuitive examples, mathematical generalizations, and computational experiments that current RDS variance estimators will always underestimate the population sampling variance of RDS in empirical networks that do not conform to the FOM assumption. Analysis of 215 observed university and school networks from Facebook and Add Health indicates that the FOM assumption is violated in every empirical network we analyze, and that these violations lead to substantially biased RDS estimators of sampling variance. We propose and test two alternative variance estimators that show some promise for reducing biases, but which also illustrate the limits of estimating sampling variance with only partial information on the underlying population social network.     

A Simulation Study Comparing Epidemic Dynamics on Exponential Random Graph and Edge-Triangle Configuration Type Contact Network Models

We compare two broad types of empirically grounded random network models in terms of their abilities to capture both network features and simulated Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics. The types of network models are exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and extensions of the configuration model. We use three kinds of empirical contact networks, chosen to provide both variety and realistic patterns of human contact: a highly clustered network, a bipartite network and a snowball sampled network of a “hidden population”. In the case of the snowball sampled network we present a novel method for fitting an edge-triangle model. In our results, ERGMs consistently capture clustering as well or better than configuration-type models, but the latter models better capture the node degree distribution. Despite the additional computational requirements to fit ERGMs to empirical networks, the use of ERGMs provides only a slight improvement in the ability of the models to recreate epidemic features of the empirical network in simulated SIR epidemics. Generally, SIR epidemic results from using configuration-type models fall between those from a random network model (i.e., an Erdős-Rényi model) and an ERGM. The addition of subgraphs of size four to edge-triangle type models does improve agreement with the empirical network for smaller densities in clustered networks. Additional subgraphs do not make a noticeable difference in our example, although we would expect the ability to model cliques to be helpful for contact networks exhibiting household structure.     

Simulated Evolution of Signal Transduction Networks

Signal transduction is the process of routing information inside cells when receiving stimuli from their environment that modulate the behavior and function. In such biological processes, the receptors, after receiving the corresponding signals, activate a number of biomolecules which eventually transduce the signal to the nucleus. The main objective of our work is to develop a theoretical approach which will help to better understand the behavior of signal transduction networks due to changes in kinetic parameters and network topology. By using an evolutionary algorithm, we designed a mathematical model which performs basic signaling tasks similar to the signaling process of living cells. We use a simple dynamical model of signaling networks of interacting proteins and their complexes. We study the evolution of signaling networks described by mass-action kinetics. The fitness of the networks is determined by the number of signals detected out of a series of signals with varying strength. The mutations include changes in the reaction rate and network topology. We found that stronger interactions and addition of new nodes lead to improved evolved responses. The strength of the signal does not play any role in determining the response type. This model will help to understand the dynamic behavior of the proteins involved in signaling pathways. It will also help to understand the robustness of the kinetics of the output response upon changes in the rate of reactions and the topology of the network.