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1.
Francisco Louzada‐Neto Josmar Mazucheli Jorge A. Achcar 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2002,44(1):3-14
We propose a general family of mixture hazard models to analyze lifetime data associated with bathtub and multimodal hazard functions. With this model we have a great flexibility for fitting lifetime data. Its version with covariates has the proportional hazard and the accelerated failure time models as special cases. A Bayesian analysis is presented for the model using informative priors, using sampling‐based approaches to perform the Bayesian computations. A real example with a medical data illustrates the methodology. 相似文献
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Modelling heterogeneity of capture is an important problem in estimating animal abundance from capturerecapture data, with underestimation of abundance occurring if different animals have intrinsically high or low capture probabilities. Mixture models are useful in many cases to model the heterogeneity. We summarise mixture model results for closed populations, using a skink data set for illustration. New mixture models for heterogeneous open populations are discussed, and a closed population model is shown to have new and potentially effective applications in community analysis. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
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S L Whittington 《American journal of physical anthropology》1991,85(2):167-184
Heterogeneity and small sample size are problems that affect many paleodemographic studies. The former can cause the overall distribution of age at death to be an amalgam that does not accurately reflect the distributions of any of the groups composing the heterogeneous population. The latter can make it difficult to separate significant from nonsignificant demographic differences between groups. Survival analysis, a methodology that involves the survival distribution function and various regression models, can be applied to distributions of age at death in order to reveal statistically significant demographic differences and to control for heterogeneity. Survival analysis was used on demographic data from a heterogeneous sample of skeletons of low status Maya who lived in and around Copan, Honduras, between A.D. 400 and 1200. Results contribute to understanding the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. 相似文献
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从作物水分生产潜力、潜在水分利用效率与水分满足率的关系及特点入手,引入水分供应订正函数的韦伯形式。与目前常见的水分供应订正函数形式相比,本文给出的韦伯形式的水分供应订正函数具有临界水分满足率和“旋回”特征,能较好地解释作物水分生产潜力与水分满足率之间的数量关系,模型的实用性较广。模型中位置参数表示临界水分满足率;尺度参数表示水分满足率的取值范围;形状参数决定水分供应订正函数的“峰度”和“偏斜度”。根据“图解法”可求取水分供应订正函数的相关参数。其参数也具有明确的生物学和物理学意义,参数值本身也较稳定,使模型在应用中可望具有良好的稳定性。 相似文献
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Pledger S 《Biometrics》2000,56(2):434-442
Agresti (1994, Biometrics 50, 494-500) and Norris and Pollock (1996a, Biometrics 52, 639-649) suggested using methods of finite mixtures to partition the animals in a closed capture-recapture experiment into two or more groups with relatively homogeneous capture probabilities. This enabled them to fit the models Mh, Mbh (Norris and Pollock), and Mth (Agresti) of Otis et al. (1978, Wildlife Monographs 62, 1-135). In this article, finite mixture partitions of animals and/or samples are used to give a unified linear-logistic framework for fitting all eight models of Otis et al. by maximum likelihood. Likelihood ratio tests are available for model comparisons. For many data sets, a simple dichotomy of animals is enough to substantially correct for heterogeneity-induced bias in the estimation of population size, although there is the option of fitting more than two groups if the data warrant it. 相似文献
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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening acute condition that sometimes follows pneumonia or surgery. Patients who recover and leave the hospital are considered to have been cured at the time they leave the hospital. These data differ from typical data in which cure is a possibility: death times are not observed for patients who are cured and cure times are observed and vary among patients. Here we apply a competing risks model to these data and show it to be equivalent to a mixture model, the more common approach for cure data. Further, we derive an estimator for the variance of the cumulative incidence function from the competing risks model, and thus for the cure rate, based on elementary calculations. We compare our variance estimator to Gray's (1988, Annals of Statistics 16, 1140-1154) estimator, which is based on counting process theory. We find our estimator to be slightly more accurate in small samples. We apply these results to data from an ARDS clinical trial. 相似文献
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Moment-based criteria for determining bioequivalence 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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Summary Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods are used to fit Bayesian capture–recapture models incorporating heterogeneity in individuals and samples. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities comes from finite mixtures and/or fixed sample effects allowing for interactions. Estimation by RJMCMC allows automatic model selection and/or model averaging. Priors on the parameters stabilize the estimates and produce realistic credible intervals for population size for overparameterized models, in contrast to likelihood‐based methods. To demonstrate the approach we analyze the standard Snowshoe hare and Cottontail rabbit data sets from ecology, a reliability testing data set. 相似文献
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Clark JS Dietze M Chakraborty S Agarwal PK Ibanez I LaDeau S Wolosin M 《Ecology letters》2007,10(8):647-659
The paradox of biodiversity involves three elements, (i) mathematical models predict that species must differ in specific ways in order to coexist as stable ecological communities, (ii) such differences are difficult to identify, yet (iii) there is widespread evidence of stability in natural communities. Debate has centred on two views. The first explanation involves tradeoffs along a small number of axes, including 'colonization-competition', resource competition (light, water, nitrogen for plants, including the 'successional niche'), and life history (e.g. high-light growth vs. low-light survival and few large vs. many small seeds). The second view is neutrality, which assumes that species differences do not contribute to dynamics. Clark et al. (2004) presented a third explanation, that coexistence is inherently high dimensional, but still depends on species differences. We demonstrate that neither traditional low-dimensional tradeoffs nor neutrality can resolve the biodiversity paradox, in part by showing that they do not properly interpret stochasticity in statistical and in theoretical models. Unless sample sizes are small, traditional data modelling assures that species will appear different in a few dimensions, but those differences will rarely predict coexistence when parameter estimates are plugged into theoretical models. Contrary to standard interpretations, neutral models do not imply functional equivalence, but rather subsume species differences in stochastic terms. New hierarchical modelling techniques for inference reveal high-dimensional differences among species that can be quantified with random individual and temporal effects (RITES), i.e. process-level variation that results from many causes. We show that this variation is large, and that it stands in for species differences along unobserved dimensions that do contribute to diversity. High dimensional coexistence contrasts with the classical notions of tradeoffs along a few axes, which are often not found in data, and with 'neutral models', which mask, rather than eliminate, tradeoffs in stochastic terms. This mechanism can explain coexistence of species that would not occur with simple, low-dimensional tradeoff scenarios. 相似文献
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This article revisits Chao's (1989, Biometrics45, 427-438) lower bound estimator for the size of a closed population in a mark-recapture experiment where the capture probabilities vary between animals (model M(h)). First, an extension of the lower bound to models featuring a time effect and heterogeneity in capture probabilities (M(th)) is proposed. The biases of these lower bounds are shown to be a function of the heterogeneity parameter for several loglinear models for M(th). Small-sample bias reduction techniques for Chao's lower bound estimator are also derived. The application of the loglinear model underlying Chao's estimator when heterogeneity has been detected in the primary periods of a robust design is then investigated. A test for the null hypothesis that Chao's loglinear model provides unbiased abundance estimators is provided. The strategy of systematically using Chao's loglinear model in the primary periods of a robust design where heterogeneity has been detected is investigated in a Monte Carlo experiment. Its impact on the estimation of the population sizes and of the survival rates is evaluated in a Monte Carlo experiment. 相似文献
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Parametric and semiparametric cure models have been proposed for cure proportion estimation in cancer clinical research. In this paper, several parametric and semiparametric models are compared, and their estimation methods are discussed within the framework of the EM algorithm. We show that the semiparametric PH cure model can achieve efficiency levels similar to those of parametric cure models, provided that the failure time distribution is well specified and uncured patients have an increasing hazard rate. Therefore the semiparametric model is a viable alternative to parametric cure models. When the hazard rate of uncured patients is rapidly decreasing, the estimates from the semiparametric cure model tend to have large variations and biases. However, all other models also tend to have large variations and biases in this case. 相似文献
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The debate between niche-based and neutral community theories centers around the question of which forces shape predominantly ecological communities. Niche theory attributes a central role to niche differences between species, which generate a difference between the strength of intra- and interspecific interactions. Neutral theory attributes a central role to migration processes and demographic stochasticity. One possibility to bridge these two theories is to combine them in a common mathematical framework. Here we propose a mathematical model that integrates the two perspectives. From a niche-based perspective, our model can be interpreted as a Lotka-Volterra model with symmetric interactions in which we introduce immigration and demographic stochasticity. From a neutral perspective, it can be interpreted as Hubbell's local community model in which we introduce a difference between intra- and interspecific interactions. We investigate the stationary species abundance distribution and other community properties as functions of the interaction coefficient, the immigration rate and the strength of demographic stochasticity. 相似文献
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A novel mixture model is presented for repeated measurements in which correlation among repeated observations on the same subject is induced via correlated unobservable component indicators. The mixture components in our model are linear regressions, and the mixing proportions are logits with random effects. Inference is facilitated by sampling from the posterior distribution of the parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The model is applied to a neuronal postmortem brain tissue study to examine the differences in neuron volumes between schizophrenic and control subjects. 相似文献
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Gene classification problem is studied considering the ratio of gene expression levels, X, in two-channel microarrays and a non-observed categorical variable indicating how differentially expressed the gene is: non differentially expressed, down-regulated or up-regulated. Supposing X from a mixture of Gamma distributions, two methods are proposed and results are compared. The first method is based on an hierarchical Bayesian model. The conditional predictive probability of a gene to belong to each group is calculated and the gene is assigned to the group for which this conditional probability is higher. The second method uses EM algorithm to estimate the most likely group label for each gene, that is, to assign the gene to the group which contains it with the higher estimated probability. 相似文献
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应用最大熵原理构造了测树因子概率分布的统一模型,这样构造的模型具有明确的解析表达式,并能克服常用方法无法解释测树因子服从某种概率分布的真正原因,从而为测树因子统计分布建模提供了一种有效方法.使用1-3阶样本矩、1-4阶样本矩与1-5阶样本矩,用所构建的概率分布统一模型分别对浙江省域毛竹胸径分布分别作了仿真试验,结果表明当采用1-4阶样本矩时,仿真效果最好,而且比通过假设检验的Weibull分布仿真结果理想:(1)图形非常相似,对实测数据都能很好的模拟;(2)最大熵法的离差平方和为0.00018,Weibull分布的为0.00045[1].由于各种系统与非系统的原因,都会影响测量结果的准确性,对所构建的模型作了不确定度评定,表明结果具有很大的可靠性,测量结果的估计:7.85100,测量结果的标准不确定度:1.82710,置信概率:0.96020. 相似文献
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Testing in normal mixture models when the proportions are known 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
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Izabela R. C. Oliveira Geert Molenberghs Clarice G. B. Demétrio Carlos T. S. Dias Suely R. Giolo Marcela C. Andrade 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2016,58(4):852-867
The intraclass correlation is commonly used with clustered data. It is often estimated based on fitting a model to hierarchical data and it leads, in turn, to several concepts such as reliability, heritability, inter‐rater agreement, etc. For data where linear models can be used, such measures can be defined as ratios of variance components. Matters are more difficult for non‐Gaussian outcomes. The focus here is on count and time‐to‐event outcomes where so‐called combined models are used, extending generalized linear mixed models, to describe the data. These models combine normal and gamma random effects to allow for both correlation due to data hierarchies as well as for overdispersion. Furthermore, because the models admit closed‐form expressions for the means, variances, higher moments, and even the joint marginal distribution, it is demonstrated that closed forms of intraclass correlations exist. The proposed methodology is illustrated using data from agricultural and livestock studies. 相似文献
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Julio Arrontes 《Ecology and evolution》2021,11(5):1940
Training in Population Ecology asks for scalable applications capable of embarking students on a trip from basic concepts to the projection of populations under the various effects of density dependence and stochasticity. Demography_Lab is an educational tool for teaching Population Ecology aspiring to cover such a wide range of objectives. The application uses stochastic models to evaluate the future of populations. Demography_Lab may accommodate a wide range of life cycles and can construct models for populations with and without an age or stage structure. Difference equations are used for unstructured populations and matrix models for structured populations. Both types of models operate in discrete time. Models can be very simple, constructed with very limited demographic information or parameter‐rich, with a complex density‐dependence structure and detailed effects of the different sources of stochasticity. Demography_Lab allows for deterministic projections, asymptotic analysis, the extraction of confidence intervals for demographic parameters, and stochastic projections. Stochastic population growth is evaluated using up to three sources of stochasticity: environmental and demographic stochasticity and sampling error in obtaining the projection matrix. The user has full control on the effect of stochasticity on vital rates. The effect of the three sources of stochasticity may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. The user has also full control on density dependence. It may be included as a ceiling population size controlling the number of individuals in the population or it may be evaluated independently for each vital rate. Sensitivity analysis can be done for the asymptotic population growth rate or for the probability of extinction. Elasticity of the probability of extinction may be evaluated in response to changes in vital rates, and in response to changes in the intensity of density dependence and environmental stochasticity. 相似文献