Historical stability of diversity patterns in African estrildid finches (Aves: Estrildidae)?

Studying shifts in species diversity through time and space is an essential component of many aspects of biogeography and ecology. In this study, we predict the potential distribution of 61 species of African estrildid finches in order to assess current and past diversity patterns. Models were projected onto two climatic scenarios (Community Climate System Model, CCSM, and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC) representing past climate conditions, as might be expected during the Last Glacial Maximum 21 000 years BP. Subsequent overlays of the resulting potential distributions were conducted under different dispersal assumptions and compared with expert maps. Our results suggest highly similar current distribution patterns obtained by both methods. Projections onto Pleistocene scenarios showed similar patterns, with only small differences under limited and unlimited dispersal assumptions. Looking separately at diversity patterns predicted for forest and savannah species, diversity hot spots of forest species under MIROC conditions were consistent with suggested forest refugia, but were inconsistent under CCSM conditions. According to our models, savannah species were more widely distributed during the cooler and drier conditions of the Pleistocene. By using ecological niche models we show that current diversity patterns of a whole species group may have changed only slightly since the Pleistocene, suggesting a pattern of general spatial stability. However, we emphasize the importance of using different climatic scenarios as well as including the supposed dispersal of organisms in the modelling, as these factors influence results on a broad scale. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102 , 455–470.     

Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs – Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach

Aim

Our knowledge of Pleistocene refugia and post-glacial recolonization routes of forest understorey plants is still very limited. The geographical ranges of these species are often rather narrow and show highly idiosyncratic, often fragmented patterns indicating either narrow and species-specific ecological tolerances or strong dispersal limitations. However, the relative roles of these factors are inherently difficult to disentangle.

Location

Central and south-eastern Europe.

Time period

17,100 BP – present.

Major taxa studied

Five understorey herbs of European beech forests: Aposeris foetida, Cardamine trifolia, Euphorbia carniolica, Hacquetia epipactis and Helleborus niger.

Methods

We used spatio-temporally explicit modelling to reconstruct the post-glacial range dynamics of the five forest understorey herbs. We varied niche requirements, demographic rates and dispersal abilities across plausible ranges and simulated the spread of species from potential Pleistocene refugia identified by phylogeographical analyses. Then we identified the parameter settings allowing for the most accurate reconstruction of their current geographical ranges.

Results

We found a largely homogenous pattern of optimal parameter settings among species. Broad ecological niches had to be combined with very low but non-zero rates of long-distance dispersal via chance events and low rates of seed dispersal over moderate distances by standard dispersal vectors. However, long-distance dispersal events, although rare, led to high variation among replicated simulation runs.

Main conclusions

Small and fragmented ranges of many forest understorey species are best explained by a combination of broad ecological niches and rare medium- and long-distance dispersal events. Stochasticity is thus an important determinant of current species ranges, explaining the idiosyncratic distribution patterns of the study species despite strong similarities in refugia, ecological tolerances and dispersal abilities.     

Persistence and diversification of the Holarctic shrew,Sorex tundrensis (Family Soricidae), in response to climate change

Environmental processes govern demography, species movements, community turnover and diversification and yet in many respects these dynamics are still poorly understood at high latitudes. We investigate the combined effects of climate change and geography through time for a widespread Holarctic shrew, Sorex tundrensis. We include a comprehensive suite of closely related outgroup taxa and three independent loci to explore phylogeographic structure and historical demography. We then explore the implications of these findings for other members of boreal communities. The tundra shrew and its sister species, the Tien Shan shrew (Sorex asper), exhibit strong geographic population structure across Siberia and into Beringia illustrating local centres of endemism that correspond to Late Pleistocene refugia. Ecological niche predictions for both current and historical distributions indicate a model of persistence through time despite dramatic climate change. Species tree estimation under a coalescent process suggests that isolation between populations has been maintained across timeframes deeper than the periodicity of Pleistocene glacial cycling. That some species such as the tundra shrew have a history of persistence largely independent of changing climate, whereas other boreal species shifted their ranges in response to climate change, highlights the dynamic processes of community assembly at high latitudes.     

Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans‐alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted forest ecosystems on New Zealand’s South Island, but the extent of LGM distribution for forest species is still poorly understood. We used mitochondrial DNA phylogeography (COI) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify LGM refugia for the mycophagous beetle Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), a forest edge species widely distributed in the South Island. Both the phylogenetic analyses and the ENM indicate that A. labralis refuged in Kaikoura, Nelson, and along much of the South Island’s west coast. Phylogeography of this species indicates that recolonization of the largely deforested east and southeast South Island occurred in a west–east direction, with populations moving through the Southern Alps, and that the northern refugia participated little in interglacial population expansion. This contradicts published studies of other New Zealand species, in which recolonization occurs in a north–south fashion from many of the same refugia.     

Saxifraga rivularis L. on Beinn Eighe

Summary

A new locality for Saxifraga rivularis is described from Beinn Eighe, Wester Ross. Species lists from the site and from two nearby sites are compared in relation to soil analyses.     

Steppes, savannahs, forests and phytodiversity reservoirs during the Pleistocene in the Iberian Peninsula

A palaeobotanical analysis of the Pleistocene floras and vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula shows the existence of patched landscapes with Pinus woodlands, deciduous and mixed forests, parklands (savannah-like), shrublands, steppes and grasslands. Extinctions of Arctotertiary woody taxa are recorded during the Early and Middle Pleistocene, but glacial refugia facilitated the survival of a number of temperate, Mediterranean and Ibero-North African woody angiosperms. The responses of Iberian vegetation to climatic changes during the Pleistocene have been spatially and temporarily complex, including rapid changes of vegetation in parallel to orbital and suborbital variability, and situations of multi-centennial resilience or accommodation to climatic changes. Regional characteristics emerged as soon as for the Middle Pleistocene, if not earlier: Ericaceae in the Atlantic coast indicating wetter climate, thermo-mediterranean elements in the south as currently, and broad-leaf trees in the northeastern. Overall, steppe landscapes and open Pinus woodlands prevailed over many continental regions during the cold spells of the Late Pleistocene. The maintenance of a high phytodiversity during the glacials was linked to several refuge zones in the coastal shelves of the Mediterranean and intramountainous valleys. Northern Iberia, especially on coastal areas, was also patched with populations of tree species, and this is not only documented by palaeobotanical data (pollen and charcoal) but also postulated by phylogeographical models.