All models are wrong

As the field of phylogeography has continued to move in the model‐based direction, researchers continue struggling to construct useful models for inference. These models must be both simple enough to be tractable yet contain enough of the complexity of the natural world to make meaningful inference. Beyond constructing such models for inference, researchers explore model space and test competing models with the data on hand, with the goal of improving the understanding of the natural world and the processes underlying natural biological communities. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has increased in recent popularity as a tool for evaluating alternative historical demographic models given population genetic samples. As a thorough demonstration, Pelletier & Carstens ( 2014 ) use ABC to test 143 phylogeographic submodels given geographically widespread genetic samples from the salamander species Plethodon idahoensis (Carstens et al. 2004 ) and, in so doing, demonstrate how the results of the ABC model choice procedure are dependent on the model set one chooses to evaluate.     

Pleistocene climatic fluctuations drive isolation and secondary contact in the red diamond rattlesnake (Crotalus ruber) in Baja California

Aim

Many studies have investigated the phylogeographic history of species on the Baja California Peninsula, and they often show one or more genetic breaks that are spatially concordant among many taxa. These phylogeographic breaks are commonly attributed to vicariance as a result of geological or climatic changes, followed by secondary contact when barriers are no longer present. We use restriction‐site associated DNA sequence data and a phylogeographic model selection approach to explicitly test the secondary contact hypothesis in the red diamond rattlesnake, Crotalus ruber.

Location

Baja California and Southern California.

Methods

We used phylogenetic and population clustering approaches to identify population structure. We then used coalescent methods to simultaneously estimate population parameters and test the fit of phylogeographic models to the data. We used ecological niche models to infer suitable habitat for C. ruber at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).

Results

Crotalus ruber is composed of distinct northern and southern populations with a boundary near the town of Loreto in Baja California Sur. A model of isolation followed by secondary contact provides the best fit to the data, with both divergence and contact occurring in the Pleistocene. We also identify a genomic signature of northern range expansion in the northern population, consistent with LGM niche models showing that the northern‐most portion of the range of C. ruber was not suitable habitat during the LGM.

Main conclusions

We provide the first explicitly model‐based test of the secondary contact model in Baja California and show that populations of C. ruber were isolated before coming back into contact near Loreto, a region that shows phylogeographic breaks for other taxa. Given the timing of divergence and contact, we suggest that climatic fluctuations have driven the observed phylogeographic structure observed in C. ruber and that they may have driven similar patterns in other taxa.     

An information-theoretical approach to phylogeography

Data analysis in phylogeographic investigations is typically conducted in either a qualitative manner, or alternatively via the testing of null hypotheses. The former, where inferences about population processes are derived from geographical patterns of genetic variation, may be subject to confirmation bias and prone to overinterpretation. Testing the predictions of null hypotheses is arguably less prone to bias than qualitative approaches, but only if the tested hypotheses are biologically meaningful. As it is difficult to know a priori if this is the case, there is the general need for additional methodological approaches in phylogeographic research. Here, we explore an alternative method for analysing phylogeographic data that utilizes information theory to quantify the probability of multiple hypotheses given the data. We accomplish this by augmenting the model‐selection procedure implemented in ima with calculations of Akaike Information Criterion scores and model probabilities. We generate a ranking of 17 models each representing a set of historical evolutionary processes that may have contributed to the evolution of Plethodon idahoensis, and then quantify the relative strength of support for each hypothesis given the data using metrics borrowed from information theory. Our results suggest that two models have high probability given the data. Each of these models includes population divergence and estimates of ancestral θ that differ from estimates of descendent θ, inferences consistent with prior work in this system. However, the models disagree in that one includes migration as a parameter and one does not, suggesting that there are two regions of parameter space that produce model likelihoods that are similar in magnitude given our data. Results of a simulation study suggest that when data are simulated with migration, most of the optimal models include migration as a parameter, and further that when all of the shared polymorphism results from incomplete lineage sorting, most of the optimal models do not. The results could also indicate a lack of precision, which may be a product of the amount of data that we have collected. In any case, the information‐theoretic metrics that we have applied to the analysis of our data are statistically rigorous, as are hypothesis‐testing approaches, but move beyond the ‘reject/fail to reject’ dichotomy of conventional hypothesis testing in a manner that provides considerably more flexibility to researchers.     

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well‐studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θ_S), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N₀) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat‐specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750 000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150 000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography.     

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species‐specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species’ phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet‐adapted species. However, in the dry‐adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species‐specific responses to climate change.     

Quaternary range and demographic expansion of Liolaemus darwinii (Squamata: Liolaemidae) in the Monte Desert of Central Argentina using Bayesian phylogeography and ecological niche modelling

Until recently, most phylogeographic approaches have been unable to distinguish between demographic and range expansion processes, making it difficult to test for the possibility of range expansion without population growth and vice versa. In this study, we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to reconstruct both demographic and range expansion in the lizard Liolaemus darwinii of the Monte Desert in Central Argentina, during the Late Quaternary. Based on analysis of 14 anonymous nuclear loci and the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA gene, we detected signals of demographic expansion starting at ~55 ka based on Bayesian Skyline and Skyride Plots. In contrast, Bayesian relaxed models of spatial diffusion suggested that range expansion occurred only between ~95 and 55 ka, and more recently, diffusion rates were very low during demographic expansion. The possibility of population growth without substantial range expansion could account for the shared patterns of demographic expansion during the Last Glacial Maxima (OIS 2 and 4) in fish, small mammals and other lizards of the Monte Desert. We found substantial variation in diffusion rates over time, and very high rates during the range expansion phase, consistent with a rapidly advancing expansion front towards the southeast shown by palaeo‐distribution models. Furthermore, the estimated diffusion rates are congruent with observed dispersal rates of lizards in field conditions and therefore provide additional confidence to the temporal scale of inferred phylogeographic patterns. Our study highlights how the integration of phylogeography with palaeo‐distribution models can shed light on both demographic and range expansion processes and their potential causes.     

Comparative phylogeography of codistributed aquatic insects in western North America: insights into dispersal and regional patterns of genetic structure

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Contrasting geographic structure in evolutionarily divergent Lake Tanganyika catfishes

Geographic isolation is suggested to be among the most important processes in the generation of cichlid fish diversity in East Africa's Great Lakes, both through isolation by distance and fluctuating connectivity caused by changing lake levels. However, even broad scale phylogeographic patterns are currently unknown in many non‐cichlid littoral taxa from these systems. To begin to address this, we generated restriction‐site‐associated DNA sequence (RADseq) data to investigate phylogeographic structure throughout Lake Tanganyika (LT) in two broadly sympatric rocky shore catfish species from independent evolutionary radiations with differing behaviors: the mouthbrooding claroteine, Lophiobagrus cyclurus, and the brood‐parasite mochokid, Synodontis multipunctatus. Our results indicated contrasting patterns between these species, with strong lake‐wide phylogeographic signal in L. cyclurus including a deep divergence between the northern and southern lake basins. Further structuring of these populations was observed across a heterogeneous habitat over much smaller distances. Strong population growth was observed in L. cyclurus sampled from shallow shorelines, suggesting population growth associated with the colonization of new habitats following lake‐level rises. Conversely, S. multipunctatus, which occupies a broader depth range, showed little phylogeographic structure and lower rates of population growth. Our findings suggest that isolation by distance and/or habitat barriers may play a role in the divergence of non‐cichlid fishes in LT, but this effect varies by species.     

Comparative phylogeography of mainland and insular species of Neotropical molossid bats (Molossus)

Historical events, habitat preferences, and geographic barriers might result in distinct genetic patterns in insular versus mainland populations. Comparison between these two biogeographic systems provides an opportunity to investigate the relative role of isolation in phylogeographic patterns and to elucidate the importance of evolution and demographic history in population structure. Herein, we use a genotype‐by‐sequencing approach (GBS) to explore population structure within three species of mastiff bats (Molossus molossus, M. coibensis, and M. milleri), which represent different ecological histories and geographical distributions in the genus. We tested the hypotheses that oceanic straits serve as barriers to dispersal in Caribbean bats and that isolated island populations are more likely to experience genetic drift and bottlenecks in comparison with highly connected ones, thus leading to different phylogeographic patterns. We show that population structures vary according to general habitat preferences, levels of population isolation, and historical fluctuations in climate. In our dataset, mainland geographic barriers played only a small role in isolation of lineages. However, oceanic straits posed a partial barrier to the dispersal for some populations within some species (M. milleri), but do not seem to disrupt gene flow in others (M. molossus). Lineages on distant islands undergo genetic bottlenecks more frequently than island lineages closer to the mainland, which have a greater exchange of haplotypes.     

Population genomic evidence for multiple Pliocene refugia in a montane‐restricted harvestman (Arachnida,Opiliones, Sclerobunus robustus) from the southwestern United States

The integration of ecological niche modelling into phylogeographic analyses has allowed for the identification and testing of potential refugia under a hypothesis‐based framework, where the expected patterns of higher genetic diversity in refugial populations and evidence of range expansion of nonrefugial populations are corroborated with empirical data. In this study, we focus on a montane‐restricted cryophilic harvestman, Sclerobunus robustus, distributed throughout the heterogeneous Southern Rocky Mountains and Intermontane Plateau of southwestern North America. We identified hypothetical refugia using ecological niche models (ENMs) across three time periods, corroborated these refugia with population genetic methods using double‐digest RAD‐seq data and conducted population‐level phylogenetic and divergence dating analyses. ENMs identify two large temporally persistent regions in the mid‐latitude highlands. Genetic patterns support these two hypothesized refugia with higher genetic diversity within refugial populations and evidence for range expansion in populations found outside hypothesized refugia. Phylogenetic analyses identify five to six genetically divergent, geographically cohesive clades of S. robustus. Divergence dating analyses suggest that these separate refugia date to the Pliocene and that divergence between clades pre‐dates the late Pleistocene glacial cycles, while diversification within clades was likely driven by these cycles. Population genetic analyses reveal effects of both isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE), with IBD more important in the continuous mountainous portion of the distribution, while IBE was stronger in the populations inhabiting the isolated sky islands of the south. Using model‐based coalescent approaches, we find support for postdivergence migration between clades from separate refugia.     

Historical environmental change in Africa drives divergence and admixture of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes: a precursor to successful worldwide colonization?

Increasing globalization has promoted the spread of exotic species, including disease vectors. Understanding the evolutionary processes involved in such colonizations is both of intrinsic biological interest and important to predict and mitigate future disease risks. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is a major vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, the worldwide spread of which has been facilitated by Ae. aegypti's adaption to human‐modified environments. Understanding the evolutionary processes involved in this invasion requires characterization of the genetic make‐up of the source population(s). The application of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to sequence data from four nuclear and one mitochondrial marker revealed that African populations of Ae. aegypti best fit a demographic model of lineage diversification, historical admixture and recent population structuring. As ancestral Ae. aegypti were dependent on forests, this population history is consistent with the effects of forest fragmentation and expansion driven by Pleistocene climatic change. Alternatively, or additionally, historical human movement across the continent may have facilitated their recent spread and mixing. ABC analysis and haplotype networks support earlier inferences of a single out‐of‐Africa colonization event, while a cline of decreasing genetic diversity indicates that Ae. aegypti moved first from Africa to the Americas and then to Asia. ABC analysis was unable to verify this colonization route, possibly because the genetic signal of admixture obscures the true colonization pathway. By increasing genetic diversity and forming novel allelic combinations, divergence and historical admixture within Africa could have provided the adaptive potential needed for the successful worldwide spread of Ae. aegypti.     

Influence of drainage divides versus arid corridors on genetic structure and demography of a widespread freshwater turtle,Emydura macquarii krefftii,from Australia

The influence of Pleistocene climatic cycles on Southern Hemisphere biotas is not yet well understood. Australia's eastern coastal margin provides an ideal setting for examining the relative influence of landscape development, sea level fluctuation, and cyclic climatic aridity on the evolution of freshwater biodiversity. We examined the impact of climatic oscillations and physical biogeographic barriers on the evolutionary history of the wide‐ranging Krefft's river turtle (Emydura macquarii krefftii), using range‐wide sampling (649 individuals representing 18 locations across 11 drainages) and analysis of mitochondrial sequences (~1.3‐kb control region and ND4) and nuclear microsatellites (12 polymorphic loci). A range of phylogeographic (haplotype networks, molecular dating), demographic (neutrality tests, mismatch distributions), and population genetic analyses (pairwise F_ST, analysis of molecular variance, Bayesian clustering analysis) were implemented to differentiate between competing demographic (local persistence vs. range expansion) and biogeographic (arid corridor vs. drainage divide) scenarios. Genetic data reveal population genetic structure in Krefft's river turtles primarily reflects isolation across drainage divides. Striking north‐south regional divergence (2.2% ND4 p‐distance; c. 4.73 Ma, 95% higher posterior density (HPD) 2.08–8.16 Ma) was consistent with long‐term isolation across a major drainage divide, not an adjacent arid corridor. Ancient divergence among regional lineages implies persistence of northern Krefft's populations despite the recurrent phases of severe local aridity, but with very low contemporary genetic diversity. Stable demography and high levels of genetic diversity are inferred for southern populations, where aridity was less extreme. Range‐wide genetic structure in Krefft's river turtles reflects contemporary and historical drainage architecture, although regional differences in the extent of Plio–Pleistocene climatic aridity may be reflected in current levels of genetic diversity.     

Effects of the Tanaka Line on the genetic structure of Bombax ceiba (Malvaceae) in dry‐hot valley areas of southwest China

Southwest China is an important biodiversity hotspot. The interactions among the complex topography, climate change, and ecological factors in the dry‐hot valley areas in southwest China may have profoundly affected the genetic structure of plant species in this region. In this study, we determined the effects of the Tanaka Line on genetic variation in the wild Bombax ceiba tree in southwest China. We sampled 224 individuals from 17 populations throughout the dry‐hot valley regions. Six polymorphic expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat primers were employed to sequence the PCR products using the first‐generation Sanger technique. The analysis based on population genetics suggested that B. ceiba exhibited a high level of gene diversity (H_E: 0.2377–0.4775; I: 0.3997–0.7848). The 17 populations were divided into two groups by cluster analysis, which corresponded to geographic characters on each side of the Tanaka Line. In addition, a Mantel test indicated that the phylogeographic structure among the populations could be fitted to the isolation‐by‐distance model (r² = .2553, p < .001). A barrier test indicated that there were obstacles among populations and between the two groups due to complex terrain isolation and geographic heterogeneity. We inferred that the Tanaka Line might have promoted the intraspecific phylogeographic subdivision and divergence of B. ceiba. These results provide new insights into the effects of the Tanaka Line on genetic isolation and population differentiation of plant species in southwest China.     

Reconstructing the demographic history of orang‐utans using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Investigating how different evolutionary forces have shaped patterns of DNA variation within and among species requires detailed knowledge of their demographic history. Orang‐utans, whose distribution is currently restricted to the South‐East Asian islands of Borneo (Pongo pygmaeus) and Sumatra (Pongo abelii), have likely experienced a complex demographic history, influenced by recurrent changes in climate and sea levels, volcanic activities and anthropogenic pressures. Using the most extensive sample set of wild orang‐utans to date, we employed an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to test the fit of 12 different demographic scenarios to the observed patterns of variation in autosomal, X‐chromosomal, mitochondrial and Y‐chromosomal markers. In the best‐fitting model, Sumatran orang‐utans exhibit a deep split of populations north and south of Lake Toba, probably caused by multiple eruptions of the Toba volcano. In addition, we found signals for a strong decline in all Sumatran populations ~24 ka, probably associated with hunting by human colonizers. In contrast, Bornean orang‐utans experienced a severe bottleneck ~135 ka, followed by a population expansion and substructuring starting ~82 ka, which we link to an expansion from a glacial refugium. We showed that orang‐utans went through drastic changes in population size and connectedness, caused by recurrent contraction and expansion of rainforest habitat during Pleistocene glaciations and probably hunting by early humans. Our findings emphasize the fact that important aspects of the evolutionary past of species with complex demographic histories might remain obscured when applying overly simplified models.     

The population demography of Betula maximowicziana,a cool‐temperate tree species in Japan,in relation to the last glacial period: its admixture‐like genetic structure is the result of simple population splitting not admixing

Conservation of the local genetic variation and evolutionary integrity of economically and ecologically important trees is a key aspect of studies involving forest genetics, and a population demographic history of the target species provides valuable information for this purpose. Here, the genetic structure of 48 populations of Betula maximowicziana was assessed using 12 expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat (EST‐SSR) markers. Genetic diversity was lower in northern populations than southern ones and structure analysis revealed three groups: northern and southern clusters and an admixed group. Eleven more genomic‐SSR loci were added and the demographic history of these three groups was inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The ABC revealed that a simple split scenario was much more likely than isolation with admixture, suggesting that the admixture‐like structure detected in this species was due to ancestral polymorphisms. The ABC analysis suggested that the population growth and divergence of the three groups occurred 96 800 (95% CI, 20 500–599 000) and 28 300 (95% CI, 8700–98 400) years ago, respectively. We need to be aware of several sources of uncertainty in the inference such as assumptions about the generation time, overlapping of generations, confidence intervals of the estimated parameters and the assumed model in the ABC. However, the results of the ABC together with the model‐based maps of reconstructed past species distribution and palaeoecological data suggested that the modern genetic structure of B. maximowicziana originated prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM) and that some populations survived in the northern range even during the LGM.     

Bayesian analysis of molecular variance in pyrosequences quantifies population genetic structure across the genome of Lycaeides butterflies

The distribution of genetic variation within and among populations is commonly used to infer their demographic and evolutionary histories. This endeavour has the potential to benefit substantially from high‐throughput next‐generation sequencing technologies through a rapid increase in the amount of data available and a corresponding increase in the precision of parameter estimation. Here we report the results of a phylogeographic study of the North American butterfly genus Lycaeides using 454 sequence data. This study serves the dual purpose of demonstrating novel molecular and analytical methods for population genetic analyses with 454 sequence data and expanding our knowledge of the phylogeographic history of Lycaeides. We obtained 341 045 sequence reads from 12 populations that we were able to assemble into 15 262 contigs (most of which were variable), representing one of the largest population genetic data sets for a non‐model organism to date. We examined patterns of genetic variation using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of molecular variance model, which provides precise estimates of genome‐level φ_ST while appropriately modelling uncertainty in locus‐specific φ_ST. We found that approximately 36% of sequence variation was partitioned among populations, suggesting historical or current isolation among the sampled populations. Estimates of pairwise genome‐level φ_ST were largely consistent with a previous phylogeographic model for Lycaeides, suggesting fragmentation into two to three refugia during Pleistocene glacial cycles followed by post‐Pleistocene range expansion and secondary contact leading to introgressive hybridization. This study demonstrates the potential of using genome‐level data to better understand the phylogeographic history of populations.     

Phylogeography and demographic history of the Andean degu,Octodontomys gliroides (Rodentia: Octodontidae)

The Andean degu, Octodontomys gliroides Gervais & d'Orbigny, 1844, has a broad distribution inhabiting pre‐Andean pre‐Puna and Puna environments of tropical South America. In order to understand the phylogeographic patterns of Octodontomys gliroides, we sequenced 579 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region from 100 individuals collected from 20 populations across its entire distributional range. The phylogenetic and parsimony network, in conjunction with analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), revealed a structured pattern of geographic differentiation of O. gliroides, with the occurrence of two well‐defined evolutionary lineages: lineage A, restricted to Bolivia and Chile, and lineage B, restricted mainly to Argentina. Analysis of population structure inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. gliroides that mostly agree with the four major barriers inferred by BARRIER analysis (e.g. rivers, salt flats, deserts, and mountain systems). In addition to the significant differentiation found among all levels studied, a positive correlation was identified between genetic and geographic distance, similar to as expected under the isolation‐by‐distance model. The most recent common ancestor of O. gliroides was estimated as c. 5.99 Mya, and the divergence between lineages A and B is estimated to have occurred by the Middle Pleistocene, about 0.69 Mya. The mismatch distributions and neutrality tests suggested a signal of population range expansion for both lineages coincident with major climatic changes that occurred during the wet–dry events of the Pleistocene in the Andean Puna region. Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs) for lineage A suggest a long history of constant population size followed by a period of slight to moderate demographic expansion at c. 0.04 Mya, whereas lineage B remained unclear after BSP analysis, probably because of the limited sample size.     

Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo‐Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection

The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model‐testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species‐specific and related to life‐history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification.     

Phylogeography of the widespread African puff adder (Bitis arietans) reveals multiple Pleistocene refugia in southern Africa

Evidence from numerous Pan‐African savannah mammals indicates that open‐habitat refugia existed in Africa during the Pleistocene, isolated by expanding tropical forests during warm and humid interglacial periods. However, comparative data from other taxonomic groups are currently lacking. We present a phylogeographic investigation of the African puff adder (Bitis arietans), a snake that occurs in open‐habitat formations throughout sub‐Saharan Africa. Multiple parapatric mitochondrial clades occur across the current distribution of B. arietans, including a widespread southern African clade that is subdivided into four separate clades. We investigated the historical processes responsible for generating these phylogeographic patterns in southern Africa using species distribution modelling and genetic approaches. Our results show that interior regions of South Africa became largely inhospitable for B. arietans during glacial maxima, whereas coastal and more northerly areas remained habitable. This corresponds well with the locations of refugia inferred from mitochondrial data using a continuous phylogeographic diffusion model. Analysis of data from five anonymous nuclear loci revealed broadly similar patterns to mtDNA. Secondary admixture was detected between previously isolated refugial populations. In some cases, this is limited to individuals occurring near mitochondrial clade contact zones, but in other cases, more extensive admixture is evident. Overall, our study reveals a complex history of refugial isolation and secondary expansion for puff adders and a mosaic of isolated refugia in southern Africa. We also identify key differences between the processes that drove isolation in B. arietans and those hypothesized for sympatric savannah mammals.     

Demographic inferences using short‐read genomic data in an approximate Bayesian computation framework: in silico evaluation of power,biases and proof of concept in Atlantic walrus

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful tool for model‐based inference of demographic histories from large genetic data sets. For most organisms, its implementation has been hampered by the lack of sufficient genetic data. Genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) provides cheap genome‐scale data to fill this gap, but its potential has not fully been exploited. Here, we explored power, precision and biases of a coalescent‐based ABC approach where GBS data were modelled with either a population mutation parameter (θ) or a fixed site (FS) approach, allowing single or several segregating sites per locus. With simulated data ranging from 500 to 50 000 loci, a variety of demographic models could be reliably inferred across a range of timescales and migration scenarios. Posterior estimates were informative with 1000 loci for migration and split time in simple population divergence models. In more complex models, posterior distributions were wide and almost reverted to the uninformative prior even with 50 000 loci. ABC parameter estimates, however, were generally more accurate than an alternative composite‐likelihood method. Bottleneck scenarios proved particularly difficult, and only recent bottlenecks without recovery could be reliably detected and dated. Notably, minor‐allele‐frequency filters – usual practice for GBS data – negatively affected nearly all estimates. With this in mind, we used a combination of FS and θ approaches on empirical GBS data generated from the Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus), collectively providing support for a population split before the last glacial maximum followed by asymmetrical migration and a high Arctic bottleneck. Overall, this study evaluates the potential and limitations of GBS data in an ABC‐coalescence framework and proposes a best‐practice approach.