Does GARP really fail miserably? A response to Stockman et al. (2006)

Stockman et al. (2006 ) found that ecological niche models built using DesktopGARP ‘failed miserably’ to predict trapdoor spider (genus Promyrmekiaphila) distributions in California. This apparent failure of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Production) was actually a failure of the authors’ methods, that is, attempting to build ecological niche models using single data points. In this paper, we present a re‐analysis of their original data using standard methods with the data appropriately partitioned into training/testing subsets. This re‐evaluation generated accurate distributional predictions that we contrast with theirs. We address the consequences of model‐building using single data points and the need for a foundational understanding of the principles of ecological niche modelling.     

Ecological niche modelling as an exploratory tool for identifying species limits: an example based on Mexican muroid rodents

Niche conservatism theory suggests that recently diverged sister species share the same ecological niche. However, if the ecological niche evolves as part of the speciation process, the ecological pattern could be useful for recognizing cryptic species. In a broad sense systematists agree that the niche characters could be used for species differentiation. However, to date such characters have been ignored. We used the genetic algorithm for rule‐set production for modelling the ecological niche as a means of inferring ecological divergence in allopatric populations of muroid rodents for which taxonomic identity is uncertain. Our results show that niche differentiation is significant in most of the identified phylogroups. The differentiation is likely associated with natural evolutionary units, which can be identified by applying species concepts based on phylogenetic and ecological patterns (e.g. phylogenetic, cohesive, evolutionary). Even so, the role of the niche partition within phylogenetic reconstruction may be a limited one.     

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

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紫茎泽兰Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng.在中国入侵分布预测

原产于墨西哥的紫茎泽兰Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng.作为一个有害的外来物种在印度、新西兰和澳大利亚生长已有很长时间。在中国,尤其是在南方和西南地区其蔓延速度之快,带来了不可忽视的经济和社会后果。我们采用了生态位模拟新方法来预测紫茎泽兰可能入侵的范围。据此,预测的潜在分布区包括该植物在中国境内已分布的省份及未来华中、华东易受入侵的区域。     

Preliminary distributional analysis of US endangered bird species

A first exploration of applications of ecological niche modeling and geographic distributional prediction to endangered species protection is developed. Foci of richness of endangered bird species are identified in coastal California and along the southern fringe of the United States. Species included on the Endangered Species List on the basis of peripheral populations inflate these concentrations considerably. Species without protection in the US National Park System are focused particularly in peninsular Florida. Application of this methodology to additional taxa and regions holds promise for diverse conservation applications.     

A brief review of the fossil history of the family Rosaceae with a focus on the Eocene Okanogan Highlands of eastern Washington State, USA, and British Columbia, Canada

Many of the oldest definitive members of the Rosaceae are present in the Eocene upland floras of the Okanogan Highlands of northeastern Washington State and British Columbia, Canada. Over a dozen rosaceous taxa representing extant and extinct genera of all four traditionally recognized subfamilies are known from flowers, fruits, wood, pollen, and especially leaves. The complexity seen in Eocene Rosaceae suggests that hybridization and polyploidy may have played a pivotal role in the early evolution of the family. Increased species diversity and the first appearance of additional modern taxa occur during the Late Paleogene in North America and Europe. The Rosaceae become increasingly important components of fossil floras during the Neogene, with taxa adapted to many habitats.     

基于Maxent和GARP模型的日本双棘长蠹在中国的潜在地理分布分析

【目的】日本双棘长蠹Sinoxylon japonicum是一种重要的林木蛀干害虫。该虫自1981年首次报道于云南昆明以来,先后在中国的10多个省市被发现。近年来该害虫在北京、天津和河北等地对国槐Sophora japonica的危害日趋严重。【方法】在本研究中,作者按时间顺序梳理了日本双棘长蠹在中国的分布记录,根据日本双棘长蠹已有分布记录及其主要寄主植物国槐在我国的种植区域采用了Maxent和GARP两种生态位模型对日本双棘长蠹的潜在地理分布进行分析。【结果】日本双棘长蠹在中国南方地区呈零星分布,而在中国北方地区较为集中。分布记录的报道时间呈现出由南向北和自东向西的局势,推测这种分布格局是由于其寄主植物所导致的：中国北方地区危害严重可能与国槐在中国北方的集中种植有关,寄主树苗在不同地区间的调运是其种群扩散主要原因。基于生态位模拟的结果显示日本双棘长蠹在中国具有较大的适宜生态空间,潜在地理分布范围较广,从北到南其适生区主要有：辽宁西部、北京、天津、宁夏、河北、山西南部、山东、陕西、江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆、浙江、江西、湖南以及四川和贵州西北部。【结论】这些地区间的树苗转运需要做好检验检疫工作,以防止日本双棘长蠹的扩散。     

利用GARP生态位模型预测桔小实蝇（Bactrocera dorsalis）在中国的适生区域

桔小实蝇Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)是一种多食性害虫,明确其可能适生的区域对该虫的科学监测及防治意义重大。利用桔小实蝇在我国的已知分布点数据和亚洲地区的14个环境地理变量图层,运用GARP生态位模型结合GIS空间分析模块预测了该虫在亚洲的地理分布。结果表明桔小实蝇可分布在中国、日本、菲律宾、马来西亚、泰国北部、越南、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡,这与EPPO报道的分布区域一致。将拟合过程中获得的生态位运算法则投影到我国,并考虑模型间的一致性,预测桔小实蝇在我国各省及市县范围的分布：云南大部、四川南部和东部、贵州大部、重庆大部、广西、广东、台湾、香港、澳门、海南、福建、江西、浙江大部、湖南大部、湖北大部、上海、江苏南部、河南局部及安徽部分地区为桔小实蝇的适生区。次适生区沿适生区周围分布,为四川、贵州、重庆、湖北北部、河南南部和江苏南部的一些零星地区。适生区和次适生区大多有较高密度的寄主果树,为桔小实蝇的生存提供了条件。预测结果经独立验证数据的适合性测验表明,选择的最优模型具有显著的统计学意义,显示了很好的预测能力。GARP生态位模型可以解决生态学、生物地理学和环境保护方面的一系列问题,具有广泛的应用前景,为物种已知基础分布点资料的综合分析以及有害生物的适生性分析、监测和防治提供了技术平台。