What processes must we understand to forecast regional-scale population dynamics?

An urgent challenge facing biologists is predicting the regional-scale population dynamics of species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond predictions based on phenomenological models and instead base predictions on underlying processes. For example, population biologists, evolutionary biologists, community ecologists and ecophysiologists all argue that the respective processes they study are essential. Must our models include processes from all of these fields? We argue that answering this critical question is ultimately an empirical exercise requiring a substantial amount of data that have not been integrated for any system to date. To motivate and facilitate the necessary data collection and integration, we first review the potential importance of each mechanism for skilful prediction. We then develop a conceptual framework based on reaction norms, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework to integrate processes affecting reaction norms at different scales. The ambitious research programme we advocate is rapidly becoming feasible due to novel collaborations, datasets and analytical tools.     

Possible involvement of an enzymatic system for superoxide generation in lepidopteran larval haemolymph

The superoxide generative system in Pseudaletia separata larval haemolymph plasma was shown to consist of at least two components, low (LMF) and high (HMF) molecular weight factors using ultrafiltration, dialysis, and gel filtration. The LMF was concluded to be a molecule(s) smaller than 5 kDa while the HMF to be a protein(s) larger than 100 kDa. The total amount of superoxide produced depended on the amount of LMF and was independent of that of HMF added to the reaction mixture. Both the LMF and HMF were required for O₂^? generation. From results in the present article, it was hypothesized that the LMF was a substrate(s) discharging electrons and HMF was an enzyme(s) to mediate the electron transfer to O₂ forming O₂^?. Superoxide production was detected in the haemolymph plasma of 5 lepidopteran species in addition to P. separata. It was concluded that superoxide production is a common phenomenon at least in these lepidopterans. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Adaptive phylogeography: functional divergence between haemoglobins derived from different glacial refugia in the bank vole

Over the years, researchers have used presumptively neutral molecular variation to infer the origins of current species'' distributions in northern latitudes (especially Europe). However, several reported examples of genic and chromosomal replacements suggest that end-glacial colonizations of particular northern areas may have involved genetic input from different source populations at different times, coupled with competition and selection. We investigate the functional consequences of differences between two bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) haemoglobins deriving from different glacial refugia, one of which partially replaced the other in Britain during end-glacial climate warming. This allows us to examine their adaptive divergence and hence a possible role of selection in the replacement. We determine the amino acid substitution Ser52Cys in the major expressed β-globin gene as the allelic difference. We use structural modelling to reveal that the protein environment renders the 52Cys thiol a highly reactive functional group and we show its reactivity in vitro. We demonstrate that possessing the reactive thiol in haemoglobin increases the resistance of bank vole erythrocytes to oxidative stress. Our study thus provides striking evidence for physiological differences between products of genic variants that spread at the expense of one another during colonization of an area from different glacial refugia.     

Role of larval host plants in the climate-driven range expansion of the butterfly Polygonia c-album

1. Some species have expanded their ranges during recent climate warming and the availability of breeding habitat and species' dispersal ability are two important factors determining expansions. The exploitation of a wide range of larval host plants should increase an herbivorous insect species' ability to track climate by increasing habitat availability. Therefore we investigated whether the performance of a species on different host plants changed towards its range boundary, and under warmer temperatures. 2. We studied the polyphagous butterfly Polygonia c-album, which is currently expanding its range in Britain and apparently has altered its host plant preference from Humulus lupulus to include other hosts (particularly Ulmus glabra and Urtica dioica). We investigated insect performance (development time, larval growth rate, adult size, survival) and adult flight morphology on these host plants under four rearing temperatures (18-28.5 degrees C) in populations from core and range margin sites. 3. In general, differences between core and margin populations were small compared with effects of rearing temperature and host plant. In terms of insect performance, host plants were generally ranked U. glabra > or = U. dioica > H. lupulus at all temperatures. Adult P. c-album can either enter diapause or develop directly and higher temperatures resulted in more directly developing adults, but lower survival rates (particularly on the original host H. lupulus) and smaller adult size. 4. Adult flight morphology of wild-caught individuals from range margin populations appeared to be related to increased dispersal potential relative to core populations. However, there was no difference in laboratory reared individuals, and conflicting results were obtained for different measures of flight morphology in relation to larval host plant and temperature effects, making conclusions about dispersal potential difficult. 5. Current range expansion of P. c-album is associated with the exploitation of more widespread host plants on which performance is improved. This study demonstrates how polyphagy may enhance the ability of species to track climate change. Our findings suggest that observed differences in climate-driven range shifts of generalist vs. specialist species may increase in the future and are likely to lead to greatly altered community composition.     

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate‐driven range shifts?

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether ‘first sightings’ of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate‐driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50‐year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate ‘source’ regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), ‘corridor’ regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and ‘sink’ regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species’ thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and ‘divergent’ regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer‐term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate‐driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range‐shifting species before they potentially colonize.     

Diapause and development in the tobacco budworm,Heliothis virescens: A comparison of haemolymph ecdysteroid titres

The signal to induce diapause in H. virescens comes early in development (prior to the third instar in most insects), but the signal to break diapause can come shortly after entrance into diapause at pupation. Haemolymph ecdysteroid titres in both diapause-bound and non-diapause-bound Heliothis virescens larvae were similar in the first two thirds of the last-larval instar, when similar changes in morphology and behaviour occurred. However, the number of stepwise increases in titre and the timing of the steps was different in the two groups of larvae. Haemolymph ecdysteroid titres in the last third of the instar were approx, five times higher in non-diapause than in diapause-bound larvae. In diapausing pupae, haemolymph ecdysteroid titres dropped to levels found in larvae which had completed two thirds of the last instar. When diapausing pupae were warmed to break diapause, haemolymph ecdysteroid titres rose again. However, 2 of the 4 high ecdysteroid levels detected in pupae developing after diapause break were considerably lower than those detected for non-diapause pupae.     

Oxidative stress and condition-dependent sexual signals: more than just seeing red

The links between fitness, health, sexual signals and mate choice are complex and subject to ongoing study. In 1999, von Schantz et al. made the valuable suggestion that oxidative stress may be an important missing piece of this complex puzzle. Their suggestion has been enthusiastically tested, with over 300 studies citing their paper, but most effort has concerned carotenoid-based (and to a lesser extent melanin-based) visual signals, predominantly in birds and fishes. Today, we know a great deal more about oxidative stress and related physiology, in both a pathological and regulatory sense, than we did in 1999. We revisit von Schantz et al.'s predictions and, more importantly, highlight novel mechanisms that could link oxidative stress with a range of energetically demanding signals, greatly increasing the scope from visual signalling systems that are usually discussed and nearly always tested. In particular, we argue that differences between individuals in their ability to regulate physiology related to oxidative stress may be an important factor influencing the production of sexual signals and the costs that are incurred from investment.