A long‐standing Pleistocene refugium in southern Africa and a mosaic of refugia in East Africa: insights from mtDNA and the common eland antelope

Aim Previous genetic studies of African savanna ungulates have indicated Pleistocene refugial areas in East and southern Africa, and recent palynological, palaeovegetation and fossil studies have suggested the presence of a long‐standing refugium in the south and a mosaic of refugia in the east. Phylogeographic analysis of the common eland antelope, Taurotragus oryx (Bovidae), was used to assess these hypotheses and the existence of genetic signatures of Pleistocene climate change. Location The sub‐Saharan savanna biome of East and southern Africa. Methods Mitochondrial DNA control‐region fragments (414 bp) from 122 individuals of common eland were analysed to elucidate the phylogeography, genetic diversity, spatial population structuring, historical migration and demographic history of the species. The phylogeographic split among major genetic lineages was dated using Bayesian coalescent‐based methods and a calibrated fossil root of 1.6 Ma for the split between the common eland and the giant eland, Taurotragus derbianus. Results Two major phylogeographic lineages comprising East and southern African localities, respectively, were separated by a net nucleotide distance of 4.7%. A third intermediate lineage comprised only three haplotypes, from Zimbabwe in southern Africa. The estimated mutation rate of 0.097 Myr^?1 revealed a more recent common ancestor for the eastern lineage (0.21 Ma; 0.07–0.37) than for the southern lineage (0.35 Ma; 0.10–0.62). Compared with the latter, the eastern lineage showed pronounced geographic structuring, lower overall nucleotide diversity, higher population differentiation, and isolation‐by‐distance among populations. Main conclusions The data support the hypothesis of Pleistocene refugia occurring in East and southern Africa. In agreement with palynological, palaeovegetation and fossil studies, our data strongly support the presence of a longer‐standing population in the south and a mosaic of Pleistocene refugia in the east, verifying the efficacy of genetic tools in addressing such questions. The more recent origin of the common eland inhabiting East Africa could result from colonization following extinction from the region. Only two other dated African ungulate phylogenies have been published, applying different methods, and the similarity of dates obtained from the three distinct approaches indicates a significant event c. 200 ka, which left a strong genetic signature across a range of ungulate taxa.     

Post-glacial range fragmentation is responsible for the current distribution of Potentilla matsumurae Th. Wolf (Rosaceae) in the Japanese archipelago

Aim We aimed to elucidate how the current geographic distribution of alpine plants in the Japanese archipelago was shaped during Quaternary climatic oscillations, using Potentilla matsumurae as a case study. According to previous phylogeographic studies, post‐glacial range fragmentation (vicariance scenario) and stepwise migration (dispersal scenario) are both possible. We thus aimed to assess which scenario is more probable for the distribution changes of alpine plants in the Japanese archipelago. Location The alpine zone in the Japanese archipelago. Methods Using amplified fragment length polymorphism we determined the genotype of 161 individuals of P. matsumurae from 22 populations. Relationships among individuals and populations were examined using principal coordinates analysis and a neighbour‐joining (NJ) tree, respectively. To examine the genetic population structure, we performed analysis of molecular variance (amova ) and structure analysis. Results Differentiation between central Honshu and northern Japan was not very strong based on the principal coordinates analysis among individuals, the NJ tree of populations (59% bootstrap support), or amova (12% of genetic variation). Moreover, structure analysis did not detect clear geographic differentiation across populations. Although the populations in central Honshu were structured geographically (Mantel test: r = 0.45, P < 0.005; NJ tree), those in northern Japan did not exhibit geographic structure regardless of geographic distance (Mantel test: r = 0.26, P = 0.03; NJ tree). Population relationships in the NJ tree did not always reflect the geographic location. Main conclusions The current geographic structure of P. matsumurae could not be explained by stepwise migration. This suggests that a single continuous distribution during the last glacial period was later fragmented, perhaps by recovering forest, during the post‐glacial period, resulting in the current distribution and phylogeographic structure of P. matsumurae. Our data support the vicariance scenario.     

Inferences on population history of a seed chalcid wasp: invasion success despite a severe founder effect from an unexpected source population

Most invasive species established in Europe originate from either Asia or North America, but little is currently known about the potential of the Anatolian Peninsula (Asia Minor) and/or the Near East to constitute invasion sources. Mediterranean forests are generally fragile ecosystems that can be threatened by invasive organisms coming from different regions of the Mediterranean Basin, but for which historical data are difficult to gather and the phylogeographic patterns are still poorly understood for most terrestrial organisms. In this study, we characterized the genetic structure of Megastigmus schimitscheki, an invasive seed‐feeding insect species originating from the Near East, and elucidated its invasion route in South‐eastern France in the mid 1990s. To disentangle the evolutionary history of this introduction, we gathered samples from the main native regions (Taurus Mountains in Turkey, Lebanon and Cyprus) and from the invaded region that we genotyped using five microsatellite markers and for which we sequenced the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase I gene. We applied a set of population genetic statistics and methods, including approximate Bayesian computation. We proposed a detailed phylogeographic pattern for the Near East populations, and we unambiguously showed that the French invasive populations originated from Cyprus, although the available historical data strongly suggested that Turkey could be the most plausible source area. Interestingly, we could show that the introduced populations were founded from an extremely restricted number of individuals that realized a host switch from Cedrus brevifolia to C. atlantica. Evolutionary hypotheses are discussed to account for this unlikely scenario.     

Geoclimatic factors influence the population genetic connectivity of Incarvillea arguta (Bignoniaceae) in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains biodiversity hotspot

Geoclimatic factors related to the uplift of the Himalaya and the Quaternary climatic oscillations influence the population genetic connectivity in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains (HHM) biodiversity hotspot. Therefore, to explore the relative roles played by these two factors, we examined the population dynamics and dispersal corridors of Incarvillea arguta (Royle) Royle incorporating ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM). Thirty‐seven populations were genotyped using plastid chloroplast DNA and low copy nuclear gene (ncpGS) sequences. Phylogeographic analysis was carried out to reveal the genetic structure and lineage differentiation. Ensemble SDMs were carried out for distributional change in the last glacial maximum, present, and future. Finally, the least cost path method was used to trace out possible dispersal corridors. The haplotypes were divided into four clades with strong geographical structure. The late Miocene origin of I. arguta in the western Himalaya ca. 7.92 Ma indicates lineage diversification related to the uplift of the HHM. The variability in habitat connectivity revealed by SDM is due to change in suitability since the Pleistocene. A putative dispersal corridor was detected along the drainage systems and river valleys, with strong support in the eastern Hengduan Mountains group. Our results support the signature of geoclimatic influence on population genetic connectivity of I. arguta in the HHM. We proposed that the major drainage systems might have assisted the rapid dispersal of isolated riverine plant species I. arguta in the HHM. The population genetic connectivity, using the fine‐tuned ensemble SDMs, enables scientists and policymakers to develop conservation strategies for the species gene pool in the HHM biodiversity hotspots.     

Diversity of symbiotic bacteria associated with Bemisia tabaci (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) in cassava mosaic disease pandemic areas of Tanzania

All Bemisia tabaci individuals harbour an obligate bacterial symbiont (Portiera aleyrodidarum), and many also harbour non‐essential facultative symbionts. The association of symbiotic bacteria with the various genetic groups of B. tabaci remains unknown for East Africa. This study aimed to assess any association between the various whitefly genetic groups and the endosymbionts they harbour; to investigate if a unique endosymbiont is associated with super‐abundant whiteflies, and to provide baseline information on endosymbionts of whiteflies for a part of East Africa. Whiteflies collected during surveys in Tanzania were genotyped and screened for the presence of the obligate and six secondary symbionts (SS): Rickettsia (R), Hamiltonella (H), Arsenophonus (A), Wolbachia (W), Cardinium (C) and Fritschea (F). The results revealed the presence of Mediterranean (MED), East Africa 1 (EA1), Indian Ocean (IO) and Sub‐Saharan Africa 1 (SSA1) genetic groups of Bemisia tabaci, with SSA1 further clustered into four sub‐groups: SSA1‐SG1, SSA1‐SG2, SSA1‐SG1/2 and SSA1‐SG3. F was completely absent from all of the whiteflies tested while R was always found in double or multiple infections. In general, no particular symbiont appeared to be associated with the super‐abundant SSA1‐SG1 B. tabaci, although A or AC infections were common among infected individuals. The most striking feature of these super‐abundant whiteflies, dominating cassava mosaic disease pandemic areas, was the high prevalence of individuals uninfected by any of the six SS tested. This study of the endosymbionts of B. tabaci in East Africa showed contrasting patterns of infection in crop and weed hosts.     

The Quaternary evolutionary history,potential distribution dynamics,and conservation implications for a Qinghai–Tibet Plateau endemic herbaceous perennial,Anisodus tanguticus (Solanaceae)

Various hypotheses have been proposed about the Quaternary evolutionary history of plant species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), yet only a handful of studies have considered both population genetics and ecological niche context. In this study, we proposed and compared climate refugia hypotheses based on the phylogeographic pattern of Anisodus tanguticus (three plastid DNA fragments and nuclear internal transcribed spacer regions from 32 populations) and present and past species distribution models (SDMs). We detected six plastid haplotypes in two well‐differentiated lineages. Although all haplotypes could be found in its western (sampling) area, only haplotypes from one lineage occurred in its eastern area. Meanwhile, most genetic variations existed between populations (F_ST = 0.822). The SDMs during the last glacial maximum and last interglacial periods showed range fragmentation in the western area and significant range contraction in the eastern area, respectively, in comparison with current potential distribution. This species may have undergone intraspecific divergence during the early Quaternary, which may have been caused by survival in different refugia during the earliest known glacial in the QTP, rather than geological isolation due to orogenesis events. Subsequently, climate oscillations during the Quaternary resulted in a dynamic distribution range for this species as well as the distribution pattern of its plastid haplotypes and nuclear genotypes. The interglacial periods may have had a greater effect on A. tanguticus than the glacial periods. Most importantly, neither genetic data nor SDM alone can fully reveal the climate refugia history of this species. We also discuss the conservation implications for this important Tibetan folk medicine plant in light of these findings and SDMs under future climate models. Together, our results underline the necessity to combine phylogeographic and SDM approaches in future investigations of the Quaternary evolutionary history of species in topographically complex areas, such as the QTP.     

Phylogeography of the Afromontane Prunus africana reveals a former migration corridor between East and West African highlands

Scattered populations of the same tree species in montane forests through Africa have led to speculations on the origins of distributions. Here, we inferred the colonization history of the Afromontane tree Prunus africana using seven chloroplast DNA loci to study 582 individuals from 32 populations sampled in a range-wide survey from across Africa, revealing 22 haplotypes. The predominant haplotype, HT1a, occurred in 13 populations of eastern and southern Africa, while a second common haplotype, HT1m, occurred in populations of western Uganda and western Africa. The high differentiation observed between populations in East Africa was unexpected, with stands in western Uganda belonging with the western African lineage. High genetic differentiation among populations revealed using ordered alleles (N(ST) = 0.840) compared with unordered alleles (G(ST) = 0.735), indicated a clear phylogeographic pattern. Bayesian coalescence modelling suggested that 'east' and 'west' African types likely split early during southward migration of the species, while further more recent splitting events occurred among populations in the East of the continent. The high genetic similarity found between western Uganda and west African populations indicates that a former Afromontane migration corridor may have existed through Equatorial Africa.     

Effects of ecohydrological variables on current and future ranges,local suitability patterns,and model accuracy in big sagebrush

Forecasting of species and ecosystem responses to novel conditions, including climate change, is one of the major challenges facing ecologists at the start of the 21st century. Climate change studies based on species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized because they extend correlational relationships beyond the observed data. Here, we compared conventional climate‐based SDMs against ecohydrological SDMs that include information from process‐based simulations of water balance. We examined the current and future distribution of Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) representing sagebrush ecosystems, which are widespread in semiarid western North America. For each approach, we calculated ensemble models from nine SDM methods and tested accuracy of each SDM with a null distribution. Climatic conditions included current conditions for 1970–1999 and two IPCC projections B1 and A2 for 2070–2099. Ecohydrological conditions were assessed by simulating soil water balance with SOILWAT, a daily time‐step, multiple layer, mechanistic, soil water model. Under current conditions, both climatic and ecohydrological SDM approaches produced comparable sagebrush distributions. Overall, sagebrush distribution is forecasted to decrease, with larger decreases under the A2 than under the B1 scenario and strong decreases in the southern part of the range. Increases were forecasted in the northern parts and at higher elevations. Both SDM approaches produced accurate predictions. However, the ecohydrological SDM approach was slightly less accurate than climatic SDMs (?1% in AUC, ?4% in Kappa and TSS) and predicted a higher number of habitat patches than observed in the input data. Future predictions of ecohydrological SDMs included an increased number of habitat patches whereas climatic SDMs predicted a decrease. This difference is important for understanding landscape‐scale patterns of sagebrush ecosystems and management of sagebrush obligate species for future conditions. Several mechanisms can explain the diverging forecasts; however, we need better insights into the consequences of different datasets for SDMs and how these affect our understanding of future trajectories.     

Land masses and oceanic currents drive population structure of Heritiera littoralis,a widespread mangrove in the Indo‐West Pacific

Phylogeographic forces driving evolution of sea‐dispersed plants are often influenced by regional and species characteristics, although not yet deciphered at a large spatial scale for many taxa like the mangrove species Heritiera littoralis. This study aimed to assess geographic distribution of genetic variation of this widespread mangrove in the Indo‐West Pacific region and identify the phylogeographic factors influencing its present‐day distribution. Analysis of five chloroplast DNA fragments’ sequences from 37 populations revealed low genetic diversity at the population level and strong genetic structure of H. littoralis in this region. The estimated divergence times between the major genetic lineages indicated that glacial level changes during the Pleistocene epoch induced strong genetic differentiation across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In comparison to the strong genetic break imposed by the Sunda Shelf toward splitting the lineages of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the genetic differentiation between Indo‐Malesia and Australasia was not so prominent. Long‐distance dispersal ability of H. littoralis propagules helped the species to attain transoceanic distribution not only across South East Asia and Australia, but also across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. However, oceanic circulation pattern in the South China Sea was found to act as a barrier creating further intraoceanic genetic differentiation. Overall, phylogeographic analysis in this study revealed that glacial vicariance had profound influence on population differentiation in H. littoralis and caused low genetic diversity except for the refugia populations near the equator which might have persisted through glacial maxima. With increasing loss of suitable habitats due to anthropogenic activities, these findings therefore emphasize the urgent need for conservation actions for all populations throughout the distribution range of H. littoralis.     

Effects of sample size,number of markers,and allelic richness on the detection of spatial genetic pattern

The influence of study design on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow is one of the most pressing methodological gaps in landscape genetic research. To investigate the effect of study design on landscape genetics inference, we used a spatially‐explicit, individual‐based program to simulate gene flow in a spatially continuous population inhabiting a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. We simulated a wide range of combinations of number of loci, number of alleles per locus and number of individuals sampled from the population. We assessed how these three aspects of study design influenced the statistical power to successfully identify the generating process among competing hypotheses of isolation‐by‐distance, isolation‐by‐barrier, and isolation‐by‐landscape resistance using a causal modelling approach with partial Mantel tests. We modelled the statistical power to identify the generating process as a response surface for equilibrium and non‐equilibrium conditions after introduction of isolation‐by‐landscape resistance. All three variables (loci, alleles and sampled individuals) affect the power of causal modelling, but to different degrees. Stronger partial Mantel r correlations between landscape distances and genetic distances were found when more loci were used and when loci were more variable, which makes comparisons of effect size between studies difficult. Number of individuals did not affect the accuracy through mean equilibrium partial Mantel r, but larger samples decreased the uncertainty (increasing the precision) of equilibrium partial Mantel r estimates. We conclude that amplifying more (and more variable) loci is likely to increase the power of landscape genetic inferences more than increasing number of individuals.     

Connecting the dots: Bridging genetic and spatial differentiation of the genus Eumerus (Diptera: Syrphidae) in the Mediterranean Basin and Balkans

In this study, we explored intraspecific genetic differentiation of hoverfly species of the genus Eumerus with regard to landscape discontinuities (due to paleogeological events), isolation‐by‐distance, evolutionary processes, and Quaternary climatic oscillations. We unveil genetically diverging regions and discuss the potential driving forces that gave rise to these spatial genetic patterns. We generated mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) barcodes for 274 individuals of nine Eumerus species, sampled from 58 localities in the Mediterranean and Balkans. Spatially explicit Bayesian clustering, correlation tests between geographic and genetic distances (presence of isolation‐by‐distance), median neighbor‐joining haplotype networks, and landscape shape interpolation analyses were employed to investigate spatial genetic patterns. Bayesian clustering generated one to three genetic clusters with high posterior probability values. We also observed high mtDNA haplotype diversity consisting of unique and shared haplotypes, as well as starlike mtDNA haplotype patterns. The mtDNA haplotype network was consistent with species distributions and Bayesian clustering for four tested species. The Mantel tests confirmed the absence of isolation‐by‐distance in seven species. We identified genetically diverging areas through our landscape shape interpolation analyses. Five species displayed neither spatial genetic patterns nor evidence of isolation‐by‐distance, indicative of relict taxa. Our study is the first broad‐ and large‐scale study of Eumerus species in the Mediterranean and Balkans; it reveals spatial genetic clusters in four species and identifies the potential factors driving those patterns.     

Biophysical connectivity explains population genetic structure in a highly dispersive marine species

Connectivity, the exchange of individuals among locations, is a fundamental ecological process that explains how otherwise disparate populations interact. For most marine organisms, dispersal occurs primarily during a pelagic larval phase that connects populations. We paired population structure from comprehensive genetic sampling and biophysical larval transport modeling to describe how spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) population differentiation is related to biological oceanography. A total of 581 lobsters were genotyped with 11 microsatellites from ten locations around the greater Caribbean. The overall F _ST of 0.0016 (P = 0.005) suggested low yet significant levels of structuring among sites. An isolation by geographic distance model did not explain spatial patterns of genetic differentiation in P. argus (P = 0.19; Mantel r = 0.18), whereas a biophysical connectivity model provided a significant explanation of population differentiation (P = 0.04; Mantel r = 0.47). Thus, even for a widely dispersing species, dispersal occurs over a continuum where basin-wide larval retention creates genetic structure. Our study provides a framework for future explorations of wide-scale larval dispersal and marine connectivity by integrating empirical genetic research and probabilistic modeling.

     

Effects of the Tanaka Line on the genetic structure of Bombax ceiba (Malvaceae) in dry‐hot valley areas of southwest China

Southwest China is an important biodiversity hotspot. The interactions among the complex topography, climate change, and ecological factors in the dry‐hot valley areas in southwest China may have profoundly affected the genetic structure of plant species in this region. In this study, we determined the effects of the Tanaka Line on genetic variation in the wild Bombax ceiba tree in southwest China. We sampled 224 individuals from 17 populations throughout the dry‐hot valley regions. Six polymorphic expressed sequence tag–simple sequence repeat primers were employed to sequence the PCR products using the first‐generation Sanger technique. The analysis based on population genetics suggested that B. ceiba exhibited a high level of gene diversity (H_E: 0.2377–0.4775; I: 0.3997–0.7848). The 17 populations were divided into two groups by cluster analysis, which corresponded to geographic characters on each side of the Tanaka Line. In addition, a Mantel test indicated that the phylogeographic structure among the populations could be fitted to the isolation‐by‐distance model (r² = .2553, p < .001). A barrier test indicated that there were obstacles among populations and between the two groups due to complex terrain isolation and geographic heterogeneity. We inferred that the Tanaka Line might have promoted the intraspecific phylogeographic subdivision and divergence of B. ceiba. These results provide new insights into the effects of the Tanaka Line on genetic isolation and population differentiation of plant species in southwest China.     

Genetic homogeneity of the Sedgling Nehalennia speciosa (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) indicates a single Würm glacial refugium and trans‐Palaearctic postglacial expansion

The phylogeographic structures of taiga species often support the hypothesis of East Palaearctic refugia for these taxa, but the phylogeographic structures of northern temperate and southern boreal bog species are still poorly understood. Therefore, we analysed the genetic diversity and differentiation of a stenotopic damselfly, Nehalennia speciosa, across its trans‐Palaearctic range by means of sequencing two mitochondrial gene fragments, 16S rRNA‐ND1 and cytochrome c oxidase II. Only four single nucleotide polymorphisms were detected over the 1130 sequenced nucleotides. This low genetic diversity and differentiation and thus the lack of phylogeographic structure imply postglacial expansion from a single Würm Ice Age refugium, most likely located in the Far East of Asia, i.e. Manchurian refugium. From here, the species could have colonized large parts of the Palaearctics, including Europe, during the postglacial.     

Comparative rangewide phylogeography of four endemic Taiwanese bat species

Phylogeographic reconstructions of codistributed taxa can help reveal the interplay between abiotic factors, such as altitude and climate, and species‐specific attributes, in shaping patterns of population genetic structure. Recent studies also demonstrate the value of both rangewide sampling and species distribution modelling (SDM) in comparative phylogeography. Here, we combine these approaches to study the population histories of four phylogenetically related forest‐dependent bat species. All are endemic to the mountainous island of Taiwan but show differences in their tolerance to altitude, with Murina gracilis considered to be a high‐altitude specialist, M. recondita and Kerivoula sp. low‐altitude specialists, and M. puta an altitudinal generalist. We tested the prediction that contrasting habitat preferences would impact on patterns of past and contemporary gene flow and found broad concordance between the results of population genetic analyses and species distribution models based on the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate. Both lowland species showed evidence of genetic divergence between the east and west of the island, consistent with SDMs that indicated the Central Mountain Range (CMR) has presented a long‐term and continuous barrier to gene flow since before the Last Glacial Maximum. In contrast, Murina gracilis and M. puta showed lower degrees of historical isolation and genetic differentiation associated with the CMR, reflecting greater gene flow, possibly coupled with past population growth in M. puta. Together our results highlight the usefulness of combining distribution models with phylogeographic analyses to understand the drivers of genetic structure.     

Effects of landscape and history on diversification of a montane, stream-breeding amphibian

Aim The aim of this study was to understand the roles of landscape features in shaping patterns of contemporary and historical genetic diversification among populations of the Andean tree frog (Hypsiboas andinus) across spatial scales. Location Andes mountains, north‐western Argentina, South America. Methods Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences were utilized to assess genetic differentiation among populations and calculate population pair‐wise genetic distances. Three models of movement, namely traditional straight‐line distance and two effective distances based on habitat classification, were examined to determine which of these explained the most variation in pair‐wise population genetic differentiation. The two habitat classifications were based on digital vegetation and hydrology layers that were generated from a 90‐m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and known relationships between elevation and habitat. Mantel tests were conducted to test for correlations between geographic and genetic distance matrices and to estimate the percentage variation explained by each type of geographic distance. To investigate the location of possible barriers to gene flow, we used Monmonier’s maximum difference algorithm as implemented in barrier 2.2. Results At both geographic scales, effective distances explained more variation in genetic differentiation than did straight‐line distance. The least‐cost distances based on the simple classification performed better than the more detailed habitat classification. We controlled for the effects of historical range fragmentation determined from previous nested clade analyses, and therefore evaluated the effect of different distances on the genetic variation attributable to more recent factors. Effective distances identified populations that were highly divergent as a result of isolation in unsuitable habitats. The proposed locations of barriers to gene flow identified using Monmonier’s maximum difference algorithm corresponded well with earlier analyses and supported findings from our partial Mantel tests. Main conclusions Our results indicate that landscape features have been important in both historical and contemporary genetic structuring of populations of H. andinus at both large and small spatial scales. A landscape genetic perspective offers novel insights not provided by traditional phylogeographic studies: (1) effective distances can better explain patterns of differentiation in populations, especially in heterogeneous landscapes where barriers to dispersal may be common; and (2) least‐cost path analysis can help to identify corridors of movement between populations that are biologically more realistic.     

Effects of recent and past climatic shifts on the genetic structure of the high mountain Yellow‐spotted ringlet butterfly Erebia manto (Lepidoptera,Satyrinae): a conservation problem

Mountain species have evolved important genetic differentiation due to past climatic fluctuations. The genetic uniqueness of many of these lineages is now at risk due to global warming. Here, we analyse allozyme polymorphisms of 1306 individuals (36 populations) of the mountain butterfly Erebia manto and perform Species Distribution Models (SDMs). As a consensus of analyses, we obtained six most likely genetic clusters: (i) Pyrenees with Massif Central; (ii) Vosges; (iii–v) Alps including the Slovakian Carpathians; (vi) southern Carpathians. The Vosges population showed the strongest genetic split from all other populations, being almost as strong as the split between E. manto and its sister species Erebia eriphyle. The distinctiveness of the Pyrenees‐Massif Central group and of the southern Carpathians group from all other groups is also quite high. All three groups are assumed to have survived more than one full glacial–interglacial cycle close to their current distributions with up‐hill and down‐slope shifts conforming climatic conditions. In contrast with these well‐differentiated groups, the three groups present in the Alps and the Slovakian Carpathians show a much shallower genetic structure and thus also should be of a more recent origin. As predicted by our SDM projections, rising temperatures will strongly impact the distribution of E. manto. While the populations in the Alps are predicted to shrink, the survival of the three lineages present here should not be at risk. The situation of the three other lineages is quite different. All models predict the extinction of the Vosges lineage in the wake of global warming, and also the southern Carpathians and Pyrenees‐Massif Central lineages might be at high risk to disappear. Thus, albeit global warming will therefore be unlikely to threaten E. manto as a species, an important proportion of the species’ intraspecific differentiation and thus uniqueness might be lost.     

Population structure, genetic variation and morphological diversity in indigenous sheep of Ethiopia

We investigated genetic and morphological diversity and population structure of 14 traditional sheep populations originating from four ecological zones in Ethiopia (sub-alpine, wet highland, sub-humid lowland and arid lowland). All animals (n = 672) were genotyped for 17 microsatellite markers and scored for 12 morphological characters. The sheep were initially classified as fat-tailed (11 populations), thin-tailed (one population) and fat-rumped sheep (two populations). These classifications are thought to correspond to three consecutive introduction events of sheep from the Near-East into East Africa. For the 14 populations, allelic richness ranged from 5.87 to 7.51 and expected heterozygosity (H(E)) from 0.66 to 0.75. Genetic differentiations (F(ST) values) between all pairs of populations, except between sub-alpine populations, were significantly different from zero (P < 0.001). Cluster analysis of morphological characters and a dendrogram constructed from genetic distances were broadly consistent with the classification into fat-tailed, thin-tailed and fat-rumped sheep. Bayesian cluster analysis using microsatellite markers indicated that there has been further genetic differentiation after the initial introduction of sheep into Ethiopia. Investigation of factors associated with genetic variation showed that an isolation-by-distance model, independently of other factors, explained most of the observed genetic variation. We also obtained a strong indication of adaptive divergence in morphological characters, patterns of morphological variation being highly associated with ecology even when the effect of neutral genetic divergence (F(ST)) was parcelled out in partial Mantel tests. Using a combination of F(ST) values, Bayesian clustering analysis and morphological divergence, we propose a classification of Ethiopian sheep into six breed groups and nine breeds.     

Evolutionary and demographic processes shaping geographic patterns of genetic diversity in a keystone species,the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

The past processes that have shaped geographic patterns of genetic diversity may be difficult to infer from current patterns. However, in species with sex differences in dispersal, differing phylogeographic patterns between mitochondrial (mt) and nuclear (nu) DNA may provide contrasting insights into past events. Forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) were impacted by climate and habitat change during the Pleistocene, which likely shaped phylogeographic patterns in mitochondrial (mt) DNA that have persisted due to limited female dispersal. By contrast, the nuclear (nu) DNA phylogeography of forest elephants in Central Africa has not been determined. We therefore examined the population structure of Central African forest elephants by genotyping 94 individuals from six localities at 21 microsatellite loci. Between forest elephants in western and eastern Congolian forests, there was only modest genetic differentiation, a pattern highly discordant with that of mtDNA. Nuclear genetic patterns are consistent with isolation by distance. Alternatively, male‐mediated gene flow may have reduced the previous regional differentiation in Central Africa suggested by mtDNA patterns, which likely reflect forest fragmentation during the Pleistocene. In species like elephants, male‐mediated gene flow erases the nuclear genetic signatures of past climate and habitat changes, but these continue to persist as patterns in mtDNA because females do not disperse. Conservation implications of these results are discussed.     

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution models improves distribution predictions,but cannot predict species traits for a wide-spread plant species

The most common approach to predicting how species ranges and ecological functions will shift with climate change is to construct correlative species distribution models (SDMs). These models use a species’ climatic distribution to determine currently suitable areas for the species and project its potential distribution under future climate scenarios. A core, rarely tested, assumption of SDMs is that all populations will respond equivalently to climate. Few studies have examined this assumption, and those that have rarely dissect the reasons for intraspecific differences. Focusing on the arctic-alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we compared predictive accuracy from SDMs constructed using the species’ full global distribution with composite predictions from separate SDMs constructed using subpopulations defined either by genetic or habitat differences. This is one of the first studies to compare multiple ways of constructing intraspecific-level SDMs with a species-level SDM. We also examine the contested relationship between relative probability of occurrence and species performance or ecological function, testing if SDM output can predict individual performance (plant size) and biotic interactions (facilitation). We found that both genetic- and habitat-informed SDMs are considerably more accurate than a species-level SDM, and that the genetic model substantially differs from and outperforms the habitat model. While SDMs have been used to infer population performance and possibly even biotic interactions, in our system these relationships were extremely weak. Our results indicate that individual subpopulations may respond differently to climate, although we discuss and explore several alternative explanations for the superior performance of intraspecific-level SDMs. We emphasize the need to carefully examine how to best define intraspecific-level SDMs as well as how potential genetic, environmental, or sampling variation within species ranges can critically affect SDM predictions. We urge caution in inferring population performance or biotic interactions from SDM predictions, as these often-assumed relationships are not supported in our study.