A study of the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) in Qilian Mountains

To restore the human-disturbed natural ecology and to assess the impact of the projected future climatic change on the natural ecology at a plant community level or at a plant species level, we need to understand the potential distribution of the community or the species under current climate conditions. Many methods have recently been developed to simulate the potential distribution of a particular community or a particular species, but very little has been done to assess the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) in Qilian Mountains where the spruce forests are extremely important ecologically and hydrologically. This study used maximum entropy model to simulate the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce under current climate conditions and the validity of the model was verified by statistically comparing the simulated potential distribution with the observed actual distribution of the spruce. We then applied this verified model to assess the impact of the projected future climatic changes on the spruce and the simulated results show that the areal extent of the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce may increase by 1% under the projected future climate change scenario. In addition, this study revealed that among the 19 environmental and climatic factors used in this model, the most important factors are the mean maximum temperature in the warmest month and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter in controlling the potential distribution of Qinghai spruce, these two factors accounting for as much as 75.6% of the variations.     

Modelling the impact of climate and land use change on the geographical distribution of leaf anatomy in a temperate flora

Variation in plant functional traits has been related to variation in environmental conditions. In particular, the relationship between leaf traits and climate has received much attention. This paper presents a functional‐trait‐centred approach to identify potential impacts of climate and land use change on plant species assemblages. Using species atlas data, we modelled the relative frequencies of species with different leaf anatomies (LARF) as a function of observed climate and land use data on a regular spatial grid across Germany. Subsequently, we projected the geographical distribution of LARF with simulated climate and land use data for the late 21st century under two future scenarios. We used a conditional autoregressive regression model to account for spatially structured variation in LARF that remained unexplained by the environmental factors considered. We found a clear relationship between the climatic gradient of water availability and shifts in LARF: increasing water deficit was associated with a decreasing proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves in the composition and increasing proportions of species with scleromorphic and mesomorphic leaves. The variation in LARF due to land use was only small. Under future environmental scenarios the proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves was projected to decrease in all parts of Germany, whereas the proportions of species with sclero‐ and mesomorphic leaves were projected to increase on average. In particular, Germany's south‐western and north‐eastern areas were projected to experience functional change in LARF. Our study highlights the relationship between functional traits and plant species vulnerability to climate change. Our results suggest that the functional‐trait‐centred approach can provide a powerful additional modelling tool to estimate potential impacts of climate change on plant species assemblages.     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

气候变化下青藏高原两种云杉植物的潜在适生区预测

为了预测未来气候变化下云杉属植物的适宜生境,选择青藏高原暗针叶林的两种重要建群植物丽江云杉（Picea likiangensis）和紫果云杉（Picea purpurea）作为研究对象,采用MaxEnt模型预测21世纪50年代（2050s）和70年代（2070s）两物种在未来气候情景下的潜在分布,并结合ArcGIS计算物种分布面积和空间格局变化。结果表明：（1）丽江云杉的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西南部和西藏东部。紫果云杉潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西北部、甘肃南部、青海东南部,以及西藏东部地区。（2）在未来两个时期丽江云杉的分布面积总体呈增加趋势,紫果云杉呈先增加后减少的趋势,但与其现代分布面积相比,两种云杉的总适生区面积都有不同程度的增加。（3）丽江云杉适宜生境未来可能会向北迁移,而紫果云杉可能会向西迁移。（4）影响丽江云杉和紫果云杉潜在地理分布的主要气候因子为最暖季降水量和最暖季均温。研究结果可为丽江云杉和紫果云杉在未来气候变化情景下的可持续管理提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。     

Uncertainty in predicting range dynamics of endemic alpine plants under climate warming

Correlative species distribution models have long been the predominant approach to predict species’ range responses to climate change. Recently, the use of dynamic models is increasingly advocated for because these models better represent the main processes involved in range shifts and also simulate transient dynamics. A well‐known problem with the application of these models is the lack of data for estimating necessary parameters of demographic and dispersal processes. However, what has been hardly considered so far is the fact that simulating transient dynamics potentially implies additional uncertainty arising from our ignorance of short‐term climate variability in future climatic trends. Here, we use endemic mountain plants of Austria as a case study to assess how the integration of decadal variability in future climate affects outcomes of dynamic range models as compared to projected long‐term trends and uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters. We do so by contrasting simulations of a so‐called hybrid model run under fluctuating climatic conditions with those based on a linear interpolation of climatic conditions between current values and those predicted for the end of the 21st century. We find that accounting for short‐term climate variability modifies model results nearly as differences in projected long‐term trends and much more than uncertainty in demographic/dispersal parameters. In particular, range loss and extinction rates are much higher when simulations are run under fluctuating conditions. These results highlight the importance of considering the appropriate temporal resolution when parameterizing and applying range‐dynamic models, and hybrid models in particular. In case of our endemic mountain plants, we hypothesize that smoothed linear time series deliver more reliable results because these long‐lived species are primarily responsive to long‐term climate averages.     

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

Invasion hotspots for non‐native plants in Australia under current and future climates

We apply the concept of biodiversity hotspot analysis (the identification of biogeographical regions of high species diversity) to identify invasion hotspots – areas of potentially suitable climate for multiple non‐native plant species – in Australia under current and future climates. We used the species distribution model Maxent to model climate suitability surfaces for 72 taxa, recognized as ‘Weeds of National Significance’ (WoNS) in Australia, under current and projected climate for 2020 and 2050. Current climate suitability layers were summed across all 72 species, and we observed two regions of high climatic suitability corresponding to the top 25th percentile of combined climatic suitability values across Australia. We defined these as potential invasion hotspots. Areas of climatic suitability equivalent to the hotspot regions were identified in the composite maps for 2020 and 2050, to track spatial changes in the hotspots over the two time steps. Two potential invasion hotspot regions were identified under current and projected climates: the south west corner of Western Australia (SW), and south eastern Australia (SE). Herbarium data confirmed the presence of 73% and 99% of those species predicted to be in each hotspot respectively, suggesting that the SE has greater invasion potential. The area of both hotspots was predicted to retract southward and towards the coast under future climate scenarios, reducing in size by 81% (SW) and 71% (SE) by 2050. This reduction was driven by the dominance of southern temperate invasive plant species in the WoNS list (47 of the 72), of which 44 were predicted to experience reductions in their bioclimatic range by 2050. While climate is likely to become less suitable for the majority of WoNS in the future, potential invasion hotspots based on climate suitability are likely to remain in the far south of eastern Australia, and in the far south west of Western Australia by 2050.     

气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。     

气候变化对祁连山蒙古扁桃潜在适生区的影响

气候变化将改变物种的生存环境,影响其分布范围,甚至威胁到某些物种的生存。本文通过ArcGIS软件和最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)在祁连山当前(1970—2000年)和未来(2081—2100年)2个气候时期背景下的地理分布格局,并分析其主要的环境影响因素。结果表明：(1)在当前气候条件下,蒙古扁桃在祁连山的东南部有较好的适生性;(2)未来4种气候情景下(SSP126,SSP245,SSP245和SSP585),蒙古扁桃在祁连山南部及东南部的适生区有消失的风险,扩张区主要集中在祁连山中北部的国家公园附近;(3)蒙古扁桃的分布格局主要向祁连山北部和高纬度地区迁移;(4)最湿月降水量(Bio13)、坡度(Slope)、最冷季度均温(Bio11)和最热月最高温(Bio5)的累计贡献率达到了80%以上,是影响蒙古扁桃适生分布的主要因子。本研究模拟、分析、预测了当前和未来不同情景下蒙古扁桃在祁连山的潜在分布及其变化,为祁连山生态及物种多样性的保护提供科学依据。     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Abstract. A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.     

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities'' long-term survival.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.     

植物种分布的模拟研究进展

从植物种水平研究植被与气候的关系一直是生态学的热点之一。该文综述了植物种与气候关系的早期研究历史和国内外近期研究进展,尤其是20世纪80年代以来,随着全球变化研究的不断发展和深入,植物种地理分布与气候因子关系研究的最新发展,汇总了最近20年来国际上模拟预测植物种潜在地理分布的模型,比较了不同模型的优缺点。统计模型主要包括以生物气候分室模型或气候分室模型为代表的相关模型、以广义线性模型和广义加性模型为代表的回归模型、以分类和回归树分析及人工神经网络为代表的基于规则的模型、以及生态位模型、气候响应面模型等。机理模型主要介绍了基于BIOME1生物地理模型和FORSKA林窗模型的STASH模型、基于过程的物候模型PHENOFIT,以及一种基于水分平衡、温度和植物物候现象的模型。总结不同模型模拟预测的不同地区植物种未来分布的格局,并介绍中国植物种潜在分布区及未来变化的模拟预测工作,从而为更加准确地模拟预测植物种在未来全球变化情景下的变化趋势提供背景知识。     

Potential Distribution of the Australian Native Chloris truncata Based on Modelling Both the Successful and Failed Global Introductions

Our aim was to model the current and future potential global distribution of Chloris truncata (windmill grass) based on the plant's biology, soil requirements and colonisation success. The growth response of C. truncata to constant temperatures and soil moisture levels were measured and estimated respectively, to develop parameters for a CLIMEX bioclimatic model of potential distribution. The native distribution in eastern Australia and naturalised distribution in Western Australia was also used to inform the model. Associations with soil types were assessed within the suitable bioclimatic region in Australia. The global projection of the model was tested against the distribution of soil types and the known successful and failed global introductions. The verified model was then projected to future conditions due to climate change. Optimal temperature for plant development was 28°C and the plant required 970 degree-days above a threshold of 10°C. Early collection records indicate that the species is native to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The plant has been introduced elsewhere in Australia and throughout the world as a wool contaminant and as a potential pasture species, but some of the recorded establishments have failed to persist. The CLIMEX model projected to the world reflected effectively both the successful and failed distributions. The inclusion of soil associations improved the explanation of the observed distribution in Australia, but did not improve the ability to determine the potential distribution elsewhere, due to lack of similarity of soil types between continents. The addition of a climate change projection showed decreased suitability for this species in Australia, but increased suitability for other parts of the world, including regions where the plant previously failed to establish.     

The Iberian Peninsula as a potential source for the plant species pool in Germany under projected climate change

The application of niche-based modelling techniques to plant species has not been explored for the majority of taxa in Europe, primarily due to the lack of adequate distributional data. However, it is of crucial importance for conservation adaptation decisions to assess and quantify the likely pool of species capable of colonising a particular region under altered future climate conditions. We here present a novel method that combines the species pool concept and information about shifts in analogous multidimensional climate space. This allows us to identify regions in Europe with a current climate which is similar to that projected for future time periods in Germany. We compared the extent and spatial location of climatically analogous European regions for three projected greenhouse gas emission scenarios in Germany for the time period 2071–2080 (+2.4°C, +3.3°C, +4.5°C average increase in mean annual temperature) to those of the recent past in Europe (1961–90). Across all three scenarios, European land areas which are characterised by climatic conditions analogue to those found in Germany decreased from 14% in 1961–1990 to ca. 10% in 2071–2080. All scenarios show disappearing current climate types in Germany, which can mainly be explained with a general northwards shift of climatically analogous regions. We estimated the size of the potential species pool of these analogous regions using floristic inventory data for the Iberian Peninsula as 2,354 plant species. The identified species pool in Germany indicates a change towards warmth and drought adapted southern species. About one-third of the species from the Iberian analogous regions are currently already present in Germany. Depending on the scenario used, 1,372 (+2.4°C average change of mean annual temperature), 1,399 (+3.3°C) and 1,444 (+4.5°C) species currently not found in Germany, occur in Iberian regions which are climatically analogous to German 2071–80 climate types. We believe that our study presents a useful approach to illustrate and quantify the potential size and spatial distribution of a pool of species potentially colonising new areas under changing climatic conditions.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

模拟植物多样性的大尺度分布：从气候和生产力推知的一种可能性（英文）

 鉴于全球植被/生物群区在现状气候条件下已经被很好地模拟并在未来气候变化情景下得到很好的预测,人们有必要和急需模拟大尺度（区域、洲际至全球）植物多样性的分布格局。陆地生物圈模型的发展（从生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型到动态和耦合的植被模型）,气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系研究成果的增多,以及基于现有生物多样性调查的全球生物多样性理论和经验制图的进步,加大了模拟大尺度植物多样性格局的可能性。本文的目的是：综述当前气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系的主要研究成果以及大尺度     

Worldwide Niche and Future Potential Distribution of Culicoides imicola,a Major Vector of Bluetongue and African Horse Sickness Viruses

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species'' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species'' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10′ spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species'' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its'' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector''s niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.