The relationship between species richness and ecosystem variability is shaped by the mechanism of coexistence

Theory relating species richness to ecosystem variability typically ignores the potential for environmental variability to promote species coexistence. Failure to account for fluctuation‐dependent coexistence may explain deviations from the expected negative diversity–ecosystem variability relationship, and limits our ability to predict the consequences of increases in environmental variability. We use a consumer‐resource model to explore how coexistence via the temporal storage effect and relative nonlinearity affects ecosystem variability. We show that a positive, rather than negative, diversity–ecosystem variability relationship is possible when ecosystem function is sampled across a natural gradient in environmental variability and diversity. We also show how fluctuation‐dependent coexistence can buffer ecosystem functioning against increasing environmental variability by promoting species richness and portfolio effects. Our work provides a general explanation for variation in observed diversity–ecosystem variability relationships and highlights the importance of conserving regional species pools to help buffer ecosystems against predicted increases in environmental variability.     

历史变域在森林生态系统管理中的应用现状与展望

历史变域描述了自然干扰下生态系统条件和过程的变化范围,能够使人们认识现代生态系统如何变化,为生态系统的有效管理提供了重要的参照和目标,使管理者能够制定有效措施最终使生态系统达到可持续状态.近年来,历史变域在森林生态系统管理中发挥着越来越重要的作用,已成功用于揭示生态系统变化的原因、保护生物多样性和濒危物种及恢复生态系统功能等多个领域.本文介绍了历史变域的概念并对其在森林生态系统管理中的应用及所面临的挑战(数据缺乏、环境变化和人类影响等)进行了论述.加大数据解译和分析的研究力度、注重自然环境和人类社会变化的研究及加强对公众的宣传力度可以更好地认识研究区的生态环境及其主要干扰机制,有利于提高历史变域在生态系统管理中的应用效率,使森林生态系统最终达到可持续的状态.     

Combining monitoring,models and palaeolimnology to assess ecosystem response to environmental change at monthly to millennial timescales: the stability of Blue Lake,North Stradbroke Island,Australia

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CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America

Global‐scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO₂ sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO₂ exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water‐limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100–1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2–25°C, and records of 3–10 years (150 site‐years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site‐specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from ‐350 to +330 gCm^?2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest‐dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R_eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross‐site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS‐based models captured only 20–30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO₂ exchange may be up to 3–5 times larger than current estimates.     

Ecological and evolutionary implications of food subsidies from humans

Human activities are the main current driver of global change. From hunter‐gatherers through to Neolithic societies–and particularly in contemporary industrialised countries–humans have (voluntarily or involuntarily) provided other animals with food, often with a high spatio‐temporal predictability. Nowadays, as much as 30–40% of all food produced in Earth is wasted. We argue here that predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS) provided historically by humans to animals has shaped many communities and ecosystems as we see them nowadays. PAFS improve individual fitness triggering population increases of opportunistic species, which may affect communities, food webs and ecosystems by altering processes such as competition, predator–prey interactions and nutrient transfer between biotopes and ecosystems. We also show that PAFS decrease temporal population variability, increase resilience of opportunistic species and reduce community diversity. Recent environmental policies, such as the regulation of dumps or the ban of fishing discards, constitute natural experiments that should improve our understanding of the role of food supply in a range of ecological and evolutionary processes at the ecosystem level. Comparison of subsidised and non‐subsidised ecosystems can help predict changes in diversity and the related ecosystem services that have suffered the impact of other global change agents.     

Contemplating the future: Acting now on long‐term monitoring to answer 2050's questions

In 2050, which aspects of ecosystem change will we regret not having measured? Long‐term monitoring plays a crucial part in managing Australia's natural environment because time is a key factor underpinning changes in ecosystems. It is critical to start measuring key attributes of ecosystems – and the human and natural process affecting them – now, so that we can track the trajectory of change over time. This will facilitate informed choices about how to manage ecological changes (including interventions where they are required) and promote better understanding by 2050 of how particular ecosystems have been shaped over time. There will be considerable value in building on existing long‐term monitoring programmes because this can add significantly to the temporal depth of information. The economic and social processes driving change in ecosystems are not identical in all ecosystems, so much of what is monitored (and the means by which it is monitored) will most likely target specific ecosystems or groups of ecosystems. To best understand the effects of ecosystem‐specific threats and drivers, monitoring also will need to address the economic and social factors underpinning ecosystem‐specific change. Therefore, robust assessments of the state of Australia's environment will be best achieved by reporting on the ecological performance of a representative sample of ecosystems over time. Political, policy and financial support to implement appropriate ecosystem‐specific monitoring is a perennial problem. We suggest that the value of ecological monitoring will be demonstrable, when plot‐based monitoring data make a unique and crucial contribution to Australia's ability to produce environmental accounts, environmental reports (e.g. the State of the Environment, State of the Forests) and to fulfilling reporting obligations under international agreements, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity. This paper suggests what must be done to meet Australia's ecological information needs by 2050.     

Determining climate change impacts on ecosystems: the role of palaeontology

Climate change is projected to change the ecosystems on land and in the sea at rates that are unprecedented for millions of years. The most commonly used approach to derive projections of how ecosystems will look in the future are experiments on living organisms. By their nature, experiments are unlike the real world and cannot capture the ability of organisms to migrate, select and evolve. They are often limited to a select few species and drivers of environmental change and hence cannot represent the complexity of interactions in ‘real’ ecosystems. The fossil record is an archive of responses to climate change at a global ecosystem scale. If, and only if, fossil assemblage variation is combined with independent information of environmental changes, sensitives of species or higher taxa to a specific magnitude of change of an environmental driver can be determined and used to inform future vulnerabilities of this species to the same driver. While records are often fragmented, there are time intervals which, when thoroughly analysed with quantitative data, can provide valuable insights into the future of biodiversity on this planet. This review provides an overview of projected impacts on marine ecosystems including: (1) the range of neontological methods, observations and their challenges; and (2) the complementary information that palaeontologists can contribution to this global challenge. I advocate that, in collaborations with other disciplines, we should aim for a strong visibility of our field and the knowledge it can provide for policy relevant assessments of the future.     

Comparison of phenology trends by land cover class: a case study in the Great Basin, USA

Direct impacts of human land use and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change may alter land cover and associated ecosystem function, affecting ecological goods and services. Considerable work has been done to identify long‐term global trends in vegetation greenness, which is associated with primary productivity, using remote sensing. Trend analysis of satellite observations is subject to error, and ecosystem change can be confused with interannual variability. However, the relative trends of land cover classes may hold clues about differential ecosystem response to environmental forcing. Our aim was to identify phenological variability and 10‐year trends for the major land cover classes in the Great Basin. This case study involved two steps: a regional, phenology‐based land cover classification and an identification of phenological variability and 10‐year trends stratified by land cover class. The analysis used a 10‐year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite data to assess regional scale land cover variability and identify change. The phenology‐based regional classification was more detailed and accurate than national or global products. Phenological variability over the 10‐year period was high, with substantial shifts in timing of start of season of up to 9 weeks. The mean long‐term trends of montane land cover classes were significantly different from valley land cover classes due to a poor response of montane shrubland and pinyon‐juniper woodland to the early 1990s drought. The differential response during the 1990s suggests that valley ecosystems may be more resilient and montane ecosystems more susceptible to prolonged drought. This type of regional‐scale land cover analysis is necessary to characterize current patterns of land cover phenology, distinguish between anthropogenically driven land cover change and interannual variability, and identify ecosystems potentially susceptible to regional and global change.     

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought‐Net’, a relatively low‐cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem‐specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process‐level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.     

Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change

Conserving different spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity is considered necessary for maintaining ecosystem functions under predicted global change scenarios. Recent work has shifted the focus from spatially local (α‐diversity) to macroecological scales (β‐ and γ‐diversity), emphasizing links between macroecological biodiversity and ecosystem functions (MB–EF relationships). However, before the outcomes of MB–EF analyses can be useful to real‐world decisions, empirical modeling needs to be developed for natural ecosystems, incorporating a broader range of data inputs, environmental change scenarios, underlying mechanisms, and predictions. We outline the key conceptual and technical challenges currently faced in developing such models and in testing and calibrating the relationships assumed in these models using data from real ecosystems. These challenges are explored in relation to two potential MB–EF mechanisms: “macroecological complementarity” and “spatiotemporal compensation.” Several regions have been sufficiently well studied over space and time to robustly test these mechanisms by combining cutting‐edge spatiotemporal methods with remotely sensed data, including plant community data sets in Australia, Europe, and North America. Assessing empirical MB–EF relationships at broad spatiotemporal scales will be crucial in ensuring these macroecological processes can be adequately considered in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem functions under global change.     

Multiple stressors,nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate‐related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate‐influenced variables including sea‐surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind‐wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO‐related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate‐related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.     

On the difference in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between deciduous and evergreen forests in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern US forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the continental United States. Using eight‐year‐long eddy covariance records collected above a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP) co‐located in North Carolina, USA, we show that the net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) was more variable in PP, contributing to variability in the difference in NEE between the two sites (ΔNEE) at a range of timescales, including the interannual timescale. Because the variability in evapotranspiration (ET) was nearly identical across the two sites over a range of timescales, the factors that determined the variability in ΔNEE were dominated by those that tend to decouple NEE from ET. One such factor was water use efficiency, which changed dramatically in response to drought and also tended to increase monotonically in nondrought years (P < 0.001 in PP). Factors that vary over seasonal timescales were strong determinants of the NEE in the HW site; however, seasonality was less important in the PP site, where significant amounts of carbon were assimilated outside of the active season, representing an important advantage of evergreen trees in warm, temperate climates. Additional variability in the fluxes at long‐time scales may be attributable to slowly evolving factors, including canopy structure and increases in dormant season air temperature. Taken together, study results suggest that the carbon sink in the southeastern United States may become more variable in the future, owing to a predicted increase in drought frequency and an increase in the fractional cover of southern pines.     

The ecology,distribution, conservation and management of large old trees

Large old trees are some of the most iconic biota on earth and are integral parts of many terrestrial ecosystems including those in tropical, temperate and boreal forests, deserts, savannas, agro‐ecological areas, and urban environments. In this review, we provide new insights into the ecology, function, evolution and management of large old trees through broad cross‐disciplinary perspectives from literatures in plant physiology, growth and development, evolution, habitat value for fauna and flora, and conservation management. Our review reveals that the diameter, height and longevity of large old trees varies greatly on an inter‐specific basis, thereby creating serious challenges in defining large old trees and demanding an ecosystem‐ and species‐specific definition that will only rarely be readily transferable to other species or ecosystems. Such variation is also manifested by marked inter‐specific differences in the key attributes of large old trees (beyond diameter and height) such as the extent of buttressing, canopy architecture, the extent of bark micro‐environments and the prevalence of cavities. We found that large old trees play an extraordinary range of critical ecological roles including in hydrological regimes, nutrient cycles and numerous ecosystem processes. Large old trees strongly influence the spatial and temporal distribution and abundance of individuals of the same species and populations of numerous other plant and animal species. We suggest many key characteristics of large old trees such as extreme height, prolonged lifespans, and the presence of cavities – which confer competitive and evolutionary advantages in undisturbed environments – can render such trees highly susceptible to a range of human influences. Large old trees are vulnerable to threats ranging from droughts, fire, pests and pathogens, to logging, land clearing, landscape fragmentation and climate change. Tackling such diverse threats is challenging because they often interact and manifest in different ways in different ecosystems, demanding targeted species‐ or ecosystem‐specific responses. We argue that novel management actions will often be required to protect existing large old trees and ensure the recruitment of new cohorts of such trees. For example, fine‐scale tree‐level conservation such as buffering individual stems will be required in many environments such as in agricultural areas and urban environments. Landscape‐level approaches like protecting places where large old trees are most likely to occur will be needed. However, this brings challenges associated with likely changes in tree distributions associated with climate change, because long‐lived trees may presently exist in places unsuitable for the development of new cohorts of the same species. Appropriate future environmental domains for a species could exist in new locations where it has never previously occurred. The future distribution and persistence of large old trees may require controversial responses including assisted migration via seed or seedling establishment in new locales. However, the effectiveness of such approaches may be limited where key ecological features of large old trees (such as cavity presence) depend on other species such as termites, fungi and bacteria. Unless other species with similar ecological roles are present to fulfil these functions, these taxa might need to be moved concurrently with the target tree species.     

Resource composition mediates the effects of intraspecific variability in nutrient recycling on ecosystem processes

Despite the growing evidence for individual variation in trophic niche within populations, its potential indirect effects on ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. In particular, few studies have investigated how intraspecific trophic variability can modulate the effects of consumers on ecosystems through potential changes in nutrient excretion rates. Here, we first quantified the level of intraspecific trophic variability in 11 wild populations of the omnivorous fish Lepomis gibbosus. Outputs from stomach content and stable isotope analyses revealed that the degree of trophic specialization and trophic positions were highly variable between and within these wild populations. There was intrapopulation variation in trophic position of more than one trophic level, suggesting that individuals consumed a range of plant and animal resources. We then experimentally manipulated intraspecific trophic variability to assess how it can modulate consumer‐mediated nutrient effects on relevant processes of ecosystem functioning. Specifically, three food sources varying in nutrient quality (e.g. plant material, macro‐invertebrate and fish meat) were used individually or in combination to simulate seven diet treatments. Results indicated that intraspecific variability in growth and nitrogen excretion rates were more related to the composition of the diet rather than the degree of specialization, and increased with the trophic position of the diet consumed. We subsequently used microcosms and showed that critical ecosystem functions, such as primary production and community respiration, were affected by the variability in excretory products, and this effect was biomass‐dependent. These results highlight the importance of considering variation within species to better assess the effects of individuals on ecosystems and, more specifically, the effects of consumer‐mediated nutrient recycling because the body size and the trophic ecology of individuals are affected by a large spectrum of natural and human‐induced environmental changes.     

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO₂ exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO₂ exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site‐years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO₂ exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 – 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4–9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO₂ and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site‐level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis–ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO₂ exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site‐level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long‐term mean CO₂ exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100‐mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm^?2 yr^?1. Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site‐specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow‐changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site‐level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO₂ exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change.     

Interannual variability in carbon dioxide fluxes and flux–climate relationships on grazed and ungrazed northern mixed-grass prairie

The annual carbon (C) budget of grasslands is highly dynamic, dependent on grazing history and on effects of interannual variability (IAV) in climate on carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes. Variability in climatic drivers may directly affect fluxes, but also may indirectly affect fluxes by altering the response of the biota to the environment, an effect termed ‘functional change’. We measured net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) and its diurnal components, daytime ecosystem CO₂ exchange (P_D) and night‐time respiration (R_E), on grazed and ungrazed mixed‐grass prairie in North Dakota, USA, for five growing seasons. Our primary objective was to determine how climatic anomalies influence variability in CO₂ exchange. We used regression analysis to distinguish direct effects of IAV in climate on fluxes from functional change. Functional change was quantified as the improvement in regression on fitting a model in which slopes of flux–climate relationships vary among years rather than remain invariant. Functional change and direct effects of climatic variation together explained about 20% of variance in weekly means of NEE, P_D, and R_E. Functional change accounted for more than twice the variance in fluxes of direct effects of climatic variability. Grazing did not consistently influence the contribution of functional change to flux variability, but altered which environmental variable best explained year‐to‐year differences in flux–climate slopes, reduced IAV in seasonal means of fluxes, lessened the strength of flux–climate correlations, and increased NEE by reducing R_E relatively more than P_D. Most of these trends are consistent with the interpretation that grazing reduced the influence of plants on ecosystem fluxes. Because relationships between weekly values of fluxes and climatic regulators changed annually, year‐to‐year differences in the C balance of these ecosystems cannot be predicted from knowledge of IAV in climate alone.     

Resilience and restoration of tropical and subtropical grasslands,savannas, and grassy woodlands

Despite growing recognition of the conservation values of grassy biomes, our understanding of how to maintain and restore biodiverse tropical grasslands (including savannas and open‐canopy grassy woodlands) remains limited. To incorporate grasslands into large‐scale restoration efforts, we synthesised existing ecological knowledge of tropical grassland resilience and approaches to plant community restoration. Tropical grassland plant communities are resilient to, and often dependent on, the endogenous disturbances with which they evolved – frequent fires and native megafaunal herbivory. In stark contrast, tropical grasslands are extremely vulnerable to human‐caused exogenous disturbances, particularly those that alter soils and destroy belowground biomass (e.g. tillage agriculture, surface mining); tropical grassland restoration after severe soil disturbances is expensive and rarely achieves management targets. Where grasslands have been degraded by altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire exclusion), exotic plant invasions, or afforestation, restoration efforts can recreate vegetation structure (i.e. historical tree density and herbaceous ground cover), but species‐diverse plant communities, including endemic species, are slow to recover. Complicating plant‐community restoration efforts, many tropical grassland species, particularly those that invest in underground storage organs, are difficult to propagate and re‐establish. To guide restoration decisions, we draw on the old‐growth grassland concept, the novel ecosystem concept, and theory regarding tree cover along resource gradients in savannas to propose a conceptual framework that classifies tropical grasslands into three broad ecosystem states. These states are: (1) old‐growth grasslands (i.e. ancient, biodiverse grassy ecosystems), where management should focus on the maintenance of disturbance regimes; (2) hybrid grasslands, where restoration should emphasise a return towards the old‐growth state; and (3) novel ecosystems, where the magnitude of environmental change (i.e. a shift to an alternative ecosystem state) or the socioecological context preclude a return to historical conditions.     

Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland

Ongoing intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering rainfall regimes by increasing the frequency of extreme wet and dry years and the size of individual rainfall events. Despite long‐standing recognition of the importance of precipitation amount and variability for most terrestrial ecosystem processes, we lack understanding of their interactive effects on ecosystem functioning. We quantified this interaction in native grassland by experimentally eliminating temporal variability in growing season rainfall over a wide range of precipitation amounts, from extreme wet to dry conditions. We contrasted the rain use efficiency (RUE) of above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP) under conditions of experimentally reduced versus naturally high rainfall variability using a 32‐year precipitation–ANPP dataset from the same site as our experiment. We found that increased growing season rainfall variability can reduce RUE and thus ecosystem functioning by as much as 42% during dry years, but that such impacts weaken as years become wetter. During low precipitation years, RUE is lowest when rainfall event sizes are relatively large, and when a larger proportion of total rainfall is derived from large events. Thus, a shift towards precipitation regimes dominated by fewer but larger rainfall events, already documented over much of the globe, can be expected to reduce the functioning of mesic ecosystems primarily during drought, when ecosystem processes are already compromised by low water availability.     

The exposure,sensitivity and vulnerability of natural vegetation in China to climate thermal variability (1901–2013): An indicator-based approach

Vulnerability assessments can be helpful in assessing the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems and are expected to support adaptation and/or mitigation strategies in the 21st century. A challenge when conducting such assessments is the integration of the multi-level properties and processes of ecosystems into an assessment framework. Focusing on the primary stresses of climate thermal variability (at both upper and lower extremes), this study proposes a quantitative indicator system—following the IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment—that assesses the impact of historical climate change, during 1901–2013, on the natural terrestrial vegetation types in China. The final output of the vulnerability assessment was expressed as a composite index, composed of ecosystem exposure, sensitivity and resilience to climate thermal change, and including biological, ecological and spatial traits of vegetation types in the assessment. The exposure to temperature variability was generally higher in January than in July, and higher in non-arborous vegetation types than forests. In contrast, sensitivity was higher for forests, wetlands and alpine tundra regions, especially for small areas and areas with scattered patterns. Original forests—especially those distributed in the north—had lower resilience than other vegetation types. The vulnerability of natural vegetation types in China to the temperature variability of the past century was very low to moderate, with a few exceptions, including tropical mangroves and the semi-arid to arid vegetation types in northwestern China, which had high vulnerability. Vulnerability was stronger in winter than in summer. Our results are generally in accord with the scenario-based projections on the geographical pattern of vegetation vulnerability to climate change, and revealed the difference caused by not considering moisture. The risks for these fragmented and narrow-range ecosystems are highlighted, and the importance of natural resilience is stressed for the assessment of vegetation vulnerability to climate change. Given the inadequate coverage of the natural reserve network in China (after the large investment in recent decades) found in the high-vulnerability vegetation types (with a few exceptions), the assessment of natural resilience of ecosystems could be critical for the optimal design of socio-economic strategies in response to the impacts of future climate change.