Extinction of populations due to inbreeding depression with demographic disturbances

The process of population extinction due to inbreeding depression with constant demographic disturbances every generation is analysed using a population genetic and demographic model. The demographic disturbances introduced into the model represent loss of population size that is induced by any kind of human activities, e.g. through hunting and destruction of habitats. The genetic heterozygosity among recessive deleterious genes and the population size are assumed to be in equilibrium before the demographic disturbances start. The effects of deleterious mutations are represented by decreases in the growth rate and carrying capacity of a population. Numerical simulations indicate rapid extinction due to synergistic interaction between inbreeding depression and declining population size for realistic ranges of per-locus mutation rate, equilibrium population size, intrinsic rate of population growth, and strength of demographic disturbances. Large populations at equilibrium are more liable to extinction when disturbed due to inbreeding depression than small populations. This is a consequence of the fact that large populations maintain more recessive deleterious mutations than small populations. The rapid extinction predicted in the present study indicates the importance of the demographic history of a population in relation to extinction due to inbreeding depression.     

Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot

It is widely recognized that we are entering an extinction event on a scale approaching the mass extinctions seen in the fossil record. Present-day rates of extinction are estimated to be several orders of magnitude greater than background rates and are projected to increase further if current trends continue. In vertebrates, species traits, such as body size, fecundity, and geographic range, are important predictors of vulnerability. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of plant extinctions and vulnerabilities is lagging. Here, we disentangle the underlying drivers of extinction risk in plants, focusing on the Cape of South Africa, a global biodiversity hotspot. By comparing Red List data for the British and South African floras, we demonstrate that the taxonomic distribution of extinction risk differs significantly between regions, inconsistent with a simple, trait-based model of extinction. Using a comprehensive phylogenetic tree for the Cape, we reveal a phylogenetic signal in the distribution of plant extinction risks but show that the most threatened species cluster within short branches at the tips of the phylogeny--opposite to trends in mammals. From analyzing the distribution of threatened species across 11 exemplar clades, we suggest that mode of speciation best explains the unusual phylogenetic structure of extinction risks in plants of the Cape. Our results demonstrate that explanations for elevated extinction risk in plants of the Cape flora differ dramatically from those recognized for vertebrates. In the Cape, extinction risk is higher for young and fast-evolving plant lineages and cannot be explained by correlations with simple biological traits. Critically, we find that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace but, surprisingly, independently from anthropogenic effects. Our results have important implications for conservation priorities and cast doubts on the utility of current Red List criteria for plants in regions such as the Cape, where speciation has been rapid, if our aim is to maximize the preservation of the tree-of-life.     

Theoretical aspects of extinction by inbreeding depression

Populational extinction due to inbreeding depression is analyzed with simple population genetic and population ecological models. Two alternative genetic mechanisms of inbreeding depression, i.e. recessive deleterious genes and overdominant genes, are assumed in separate analyses in order to examine their relative importance. With both mechanisms the population size and the coefficient of inbreeding are maintained at stable equilibria if there is no non-genetic demographic disturbance or stress. With a certain amount of demographic disturbance the population declines rapidly due to interaction between the decrease of population size and the increase of inbreeding coefficient. Such rapid extinction occurs with both genetic mechanisms. However, in the case of overdominant genes extinction happens only if the equilibrium population size is small and the selection coefficient is large such that segregation load is large. In nature, extinction due to overdominant genes is considered to be much less likely than extinction due to recessive deleterious genes.     

Severe extinction and rapid recovery of mammals across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary,and the effects of rarity on patterns of extinction and recovery

The end‐Cretaceous mass extinction ranks among the most severe extinctions of all time; however, patterns of extinction and recovery remain incompletely understood. In particular, it is unclear how severe the extinction was, how rapid the recovery was and how sampling biases might affect our understanding of these processes. To better understand terrestrial extinction and recovery and how sampling influences these patterns, we collected data on the occurrence and abundance of fossil mammals to examine mammalian diversity across the K‐Pg boundary in North America. Our data show that the extinction was more severe and the recovery more rapid than previously thought. Extinction rates are markedly higher than previously estimated: of 59 species, four survived (93% species extinction, 86% of genera). Survival is correlated with geographic range size and abundance, with widespread, common species tending to survive. This creates a sampling artefact in which rare species are both more vulnerable to extinction and less likely to be recovered, such that the fossil record is inherently biased towards the survivors. The recovery was remarkably rapid. Within 300 000 years, local diversity recovered and regional diversity rose to twice Cretaceous levels, driven by increased endemicity; morphological disparity increased above levels observed in the Cretaceous. The speed of the recovery tends to be obscured by sampling effects; faunas show increased endemicity, such that a rapid, regional increase in diversity and disparity is not seen in geographically restricted studies. Sampling biases that operate against rare taxa appear to obscure the severity of extinction and the pace of recovery across the K‐Pg boundary, and similar biases may operate during other extinction events.     

不同生境毁坏速度下的物种灭绝机制

已有似Levins的多物种模型,在研究生境毁坏的影响时,一方面主要集中在对瞬间毁坏影响的研究,另一方面主要研究生境毁坏对强物种影响的研究。在Tilman的多物种竞争共存模型的基础上,同时考虑了生境毁坏直接效应和生境毁坏时间异质性,提出了全新的普适的多物种竞争共存的非自治动力模式。通过模拟物种灭绝对不同速度的生境毁坏时间异质性的响应发现：（1）物种灭绝既存在强物种由强到弱的灭绝,也存在弱物种由弱到强的灭绝。同时,弱物种灭绝机制进一步分为弱物种瞬间集体灭绝,以及较长时间由弱到强的灭绝。（2）生境毁坏速度越快,物种灭绝的时间越短,弱物种灭绝的越多,因此,生境毁坏速度越慢,越有利于弱物种的长期续存。（3）最强物种的多度越大,强-强物种抵御生境毁坏的能力越强,而弱-弱物种抵御生境毁坏的能力越弱,集体灭绝的弱-弱物种就越多。最强物种的多度大的群落（如温带森林）,主要发生的是弱-弱物种灭绝,而最强物种多度小的群落（如热带雨林）同时发生强-强和弱-弱物种的灭绝。因此,争对不同结构的集合种群,不同的保护对象,应采取不同的管理策略。     

Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

Many of the world''s languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth.     

Relapse processes after the extinction of instrumental learning: renewal, resurgence, and reacquisition

It is widely recognized that extinction (the procedure in which a Pavlovian conditioned stimulus or an instrumental action is repeatedly presented without its reinforcer) weakens behavior without erasing the original learning. Most of the experiments that support this claim have focused on several "relapse" effects that occur after Pavlovian extinction, which collectively suggest that the original learning is saved through extinction. However, although such effects do occur after instrumental extinction, they have not been explored there in as much detail. This article reviews recent research in our laboratory that has investigated three relapse effects that occur after the extinction of instrumental (operant) learning. In renewal, responding returns after extinction when the behavior is tested in a different context; in resurgence, responding recovers when a second response that has been reinforced during extinction of the first is itself put on extinction; and in rapid reacquisition, extinguished responding returns rapidly when the response is reinforced again. The results provide new insights into extinction and relapse, and are consistent with principles that have been developed to explain extinction and relapse as they occur after Pavlovian conditioning. Extinction of instrumental learning, like Pavlovian learning, involves new learning that is relatively dependent on the context for expression.     

EXPLOSIVE EVOLUTIONARY RADIATIONS: DECREASING SPECIATION OR INCREASING EXTINCTION THROUGH TIME?

A common pattern in time-calibrated molecular phylogenies is a signal of rapid diversification early in the history of a radiation. Because the net rate of diversification is the difference between speciation and extinction rates, such "explosive-early" diversification could result either from temporally declining speciation rates or from increasing extinction rates through time. Distinguishing between these alternatives is challenging but important, because these processes likely result from different ecological drivers of diversification. Here we develop a method for estimating speciation and extinction rates that vary continuously through time. By applying this approach to real phylogenies with explosive-early diversification and by modeling features of lineage-accumulation curves under both declining speciation and increasing extinction scenarios, we show that a signal of explosive-early diversification in phylogenies of extant taxa cannot result from increasing extinction and can only be explained by temporally declining speciation rates. Moreover, whenever extinction rates are high, "explosive early" patterns become unobservable, because high extinction quickly erases the signature of even large declines in speciation rates. Although extinction may obscure patterns of evolutionary diversification, these results show that decreasing speciation is often distinguishable from increasing extinction in the numerous molecular phylogenies of radiations that retain a preponderance of early lineages.     

Extinction and recovery patterns of scleractinian corals at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

The extinction and recovery of scleractinian corals at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary was analyzed based on a global database of taxonomically revised late Campanian to Paleocene coral collections. In contrast to earlier statements, our results indicate that extinction rates of corals were only moderate in comparison to other marine invertebrates. We have calculated a 30% extinction rate for Maastrichtian coral genera occurring in more than one stratigraphic stage and more than one geographic region. Reverse rarefaction suggests that some 45% of all coral species became extinct. Photosymbiotic (zooxanthellate) corals were significantly more affected by the extinction than azooxanthellate corals; colonial forms were hit harder than solitary forms, and among colonial forms an elevated integration of corallites raised extinction risk. Abundance, as measured by the number of taxonomic occurrences, had apparently no influence on survivorship, but a wide geographic distribution significantly reduced extinction risk. As in bivalves and echinoids neither species richness within genera nor larval type had an effect on survivorship. An indistinct latitudinal gradient is visible in the extinction, but this is exclusively due to a higher proportion of extinction-resistant azooxanthellate corals in higher-latitude assemblages. No significant geographic hotspot could be recognized, neither in overall extinction rates nor in the extinction of endemic clades.More clades than previously recognized passed through the K-T boundary only to become extinct within the Danian. These failed survivors were apparently limited to regions outside the Americas. Recovery as defined by the proportional increase of newly evolved genera, was more rapid for zooxanthellate corals than previously assumed and less uniform geographically than the extinction. Although newly evolved Danian azooxanthellate genera were significantly more common than new zooxanthellate genera, the difference nearly disappeared by the late Paleocene suggesting a more rapid recovery of zooxanthellate corals in comparison to previous analyses. New Paleocene genera were apparently concentrated in low latitudes, suggesting that the tropics formed a source of evolutionary novelty in the recovery phase.     

Predicting how populations decline to extinction

Global species extinction typically represents the endpoint in a long sequence of population declines and local extinctions. In comparative studies of extinction risk of contemporary mammalian species, there appear to be some universal traits that may predispose taxa to an elevated risk of extinction. In local population-level studies, there are limited insights into the process of population decline and extinction. Moreover, there is still little appreciation of how local processes scale up to global patterns. Advancing the understanding of factors which predispose populations to rapid declines will benefit proactive conservation and may allow us to target at-risk populations as well as at-risk species. Here, we take mammalian population trend data from the largest repository of population abundance trends, and combine it with the PanTHERIA database on mammal traits to answer the question: what factors can be used to predict decline in mammalian abundance? We find in general that environmental variables are better determinants of cross-species population-level decline than intrinsic biological traits. For effective conservation, we must not only describe which species are at risk and why, but also prescribe ways to counteract this.     

The double edged sword: The demographic consequences of the evolution of self‐fertilization

Phylogenies indicate that the transition from outcrossing to selfing is frequent, with selfing populations being more prone to extinction. The rates of transition to selfing and extinction, acting on different timescales, could explain the observed distributions of extant selfing species among taxa. However, phylogenetic and theoretical studies consider these mechanisms independently, that is transitions do not cause extinction. Here, we theoretically explore the demographic consequences of the evolution of self‐fertilization. Deleterious mutations and mutations modifying the selfing rate are recurrently introduced and the number of offspring depends on individual fitness, allowing for a demographic feedback. We show that mutational meltdowns can be triggered in populations evolving near strict selfing. Populations having survived a demographic crash are more stable than ancestral outcrossing populations once deleterious mutations are purged. The relatively rapid time‐scales at which extinctions occur indicate that during evolutionary transitions the accumulation of deleterious mutations may not be the cause of extinctions observed on longer time scales, but could lead to the underestimation of transition rates from outcrossing to selfing.     

Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of different types of CRISPR-Cas systems

Bacteria have adaptive immunity against viruses (phages) in the form of CRISPR-Cas immune systems. Currently, 6 types of CRISPR-Cas systems are known and the molecular study of three of these has revealed important molecular differences. It is unknown if and how these molecular differences change the outcome of phage infection and the evolutionary pressure the CRISPR-Cas systems faces. To determine the importance of these molecular differences, we model a phage outbreak entering a population defending exclusively with a type I/II or a type III CRISPR-Cas system. We show that for type III CRISPR-Cas systems, rapid phage extinction is driven by the probability to acquire at least one resistance spacer. However, for type I/II CRISPR-Cas systems, rapid phage extinction is characterized by an a threshold-like behaviour: any acquisition probability below this threshold leads to phage survival whereas any acquisition probability above it, results in phage extinction. We also show that in the absence of autoimmunity, high acquisition rates evolve. However, when CRISPR-Cas systems are prone to autoimmunity, intermediate levels of acquisition are optimal during a phage outbreak. As we predict an optimal probability of spacer acquisition 2 factors of magnitude above the one that has been measured, we discuss the origin of such a discrepancy. Finally, we show that in a biologically relevant parameter range, a type III CRISPR-Cas system can outcompete a type I/II CRISPR-Cas system with a slightly higher probability of acquisition.     

Amniotes through major biological crises: faunal turnover among Parareptiles and the end‐Permian mass extinction

Abstract: The Parareptilia are a small but ecologically and morphologically diverse clade of Permian and Triassic crown amniotes generally considered to be phylogenetically more proximal to eureptiles (diapsids and their kin) than to synapsids (mammals and their kin). A recent supertree provides impetus for an analysis of parareptile diversity through time and for examining the influence of the end‐Permian mass extinction on the clade’s origination and extinction rates. Phylogeny‐corrected measures of diversity have a significant impact on both rates and the distribution of origination and extinction intensities. Time calibration generally results in a closer correspondence between origination and extinction rate values than in the case of no time correction. Near the end‐Permian event, extinction levels are not significantly higher than origination levels, particularly when time calibration is introduced. Finally, regardless of time calibration and/or phylogenetic correction, the distribution of rates does not differ significantly from unimodal. The curves of rate values are discussed in the light of the numbers and distributions of both range extensions and ghost lineages. The disjoint time distributions of major parareptile clades (e.g. procolophonoids and nycteroleterids‐pareiasaurs) are mostly responsible for the occurrence of long‐range extensions throughout the Permian. Available data are not consistent with a model of sudden decline at the end‐Permian but rather suggest a rapid alternation of originations and extinctions in a number of parareptile groups, both before and after the Permian/Triassic boundary.     

How the type of anthropogenic change alters the consequences of ecological traps

Understanding altered ecological and evolutionary dynamics in novel environments is vital for predicting species responses to rapid environmental change. One fundamental concept relevant to such dynamics is the ecological trap, which arises from rapid anthropogenic change and can facilitate extinction. Ecological traps occur when formerly adaptive habitat preferences become maladaptive because the cues individuals preferentially use in selecting habitats lead to lower fitness than other alternatives. While it has been emphasized that traps can arise from different types of anthropogenic change, the resulting consequences of these different types of traps remain unknown. Using a novel model framework that builds upon the Price equation from evolutionary genetics, we provide the first analysis that contrasts the ecological and evolutionary consequences of ecological traps arising from two general types of perturbations known to trigger traps. Our model suggests that traps arising from degradation of existing habitats are more likely to facilitate extinction than those arising from the addition of novel trap habitat. Importantly, our framework reveals the mechanisms of these outcomes and the substantial scope for persistence via rapid evolution that may buffer many populations from extinction, helping to resolve the paradox of continued persistence of many species in dramatically altered landscapes.     

Concepts and analysis of mass extinction with the late Ordovician event as an example

Twelve groups of fossils, including graptolites, brachiopods, nautiloids, trilobites, corals, crinoids, bryozoans, conodonts, ostracods, gastropods, chitinozoans, and acritarchs expired in different but substantial magnitude and global extent during the late Caradoc to latest Ashgill. It indicates a multiple‐episodic mass extinction containing the possible Prologue (late Caradoc), Climax episode (Rawtheyan) and Epilogue (late Hirnantian). The main causes of this mass extinction are recognized as a global sea‐level lowering in the climax and remarkable rapid rise at the final, and global cooling. The Chinese data, especially from the South China Paleoplate, are evaluated first. They are significant for explaining this global bioevent.     

Probability analysis of elements of rat behavior after sudden and signalled interruption of food reinforcement

Probability analysis was carried out of the appearance of single elements of rats behaviour in the process of extinction of a conditioned alimentary motor reflex. The dynamics of effector behavioural components at a sudden cessation of reinforcement (usual schedule of extinction) was compared with cessation of reinforcement signalled by a previously differentiated signal and with reinforcement cessation preceded by a stimulus initially unknown to the animal. If the reinforcement cessation is signalled by a previously differentiated (negative) stimulus, in response to its action the animals "loose the aim", what is revealed in a rapid complete reduction of all elements of the goal-directed alimentary behaviour. Obviously differentiation signal actualises the memory trace of "nonreinforcement" which was formed in the previous negative experience of the animal; this is revealed in accelerated inhibition of the alimentary motor reflex under extinction.     

From near extinction to recovery: Late Triassic to Middle Jurassic ammonoid shell geometry

The Triassic–Jurassic extinction resulted in the near demise of the ammonoids. Based on a survey of ammonoid expansion rates, coiling geometry and whorl shape, we use the Raup accretionary growth model to outline a universal morphospace for planispiral shell geometry. We explore the occupation of that planispiral morphospace in terms of both breadth and density of occupation in addition to separately reviewing the occurrence of heteromorphs. Four intervals are recognized: pre‐extinction (Carnian to Rhaetian); aftermath (Hettangian); post‐extinction (Sinemurian to Aalenian) and recovery (Bajocian to Callovian). The pre‐extinction and recovery intervals show maximum disparity. The aftermath is marked by the disappearance of heteromorphs and a dramatic reduction in the range of planispiral morphologies to a core area of the morphospace. It is also characterized by an expansion into an evolute, slowly expanding part of the morphospace that was not occupied prior to the extinction and is soon abandoned during the post‐extinction interval. Aftermath and post‐extinction ammonoid data show a persistent negative correlation whereby rapid expansion rates are associated with narrow umbilical widths and often compressed whorls. The permanently occupied core area of planispiral morphospace represents generalist demersals whose shells were probably optimizing both hydrodynamic efficiency and shell stability. All other parts of the planispiral morphospace, and the pelagic modes of life the shells probably exploited, were gradually reoccupied during the post‐extinction interval. Planispiral adaptation was by diffusion away from the morphospace core rather than by radical jumps. Recovery of disparity was not achieved until some 30 Myr after the extinction event.     

The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates

Mutational meltdown describes an eco‐evolutionary process in which the accumulation of deleterious mutations causes a fitness decline that eventually leads to the extinction of a population. Possible applications of this concept include medical treatment of RNA virus infections based on mutagenic drugs that increase the mutation rate of the pathogen. To determine the usefulness and expected success of such an antiviral treatment, estimates of the expected time to mutational meltdown are necessary. Here, we compute the extinction time of a population under high mutation rates, using both analytical approaches and stochastic simulations. Extinction is the result of three consecutive processes: (a) initial accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the increased mutation pressure; (b) consecutive loss of the fittest haplotype due to Muller''s ratchet; (c) rapid population decline toward extinction. We find accurate analytical results for the mean extinction time, which show that the deleterious mutation rate has the strongest effect on the extinction time. We confirm that intermediate‐sized deleterious selection coefficients minimize the extinction time. Finally, our simulations show that the variation in extinction time, given a set of parameters, is surprisingly small.     

Theoretical Considerations of Fisher’s Theorem in Small At-Risk Populations

Small populations at risk of extinction due to threshold or competitive exclusion have a vested interest in rapid growth. Taking chance of survival into account for diploid populations, Fisher’s theorem predicts a sex ratio favoring females under certain circumstances. Theoretical consideration of competitive exclusion shows such circumstances are reasonable under accepted modeling assumptions.     

Non-linear biological responses to environmental noise affect population extinction risk

Non-linearities are commonly observed in the responses of organisms to environment. They potentially modify the qualitative and quantitative properties of population dynamics. We studied how non-linear responses to environment, or "noise filters", influence population variability and extinction risk by introducing coloured noise to the growth rate in the Hassell single-species model. The consequences of noise filtering were analysed by comparing the model dynamics with linearly filtered and non-linearly filtered noise that have the same mean. Three biologically plausible filters we used: saturating, unimodal optimum type, and sigmoid responses.
Filtering can either decrease or increase population variability when compared to linear noise response. The effect of noise filtering on variability is most pronounced with stable population dynamics and the outcome depends on the filter type, population growth rate, and noise colour.
Non-linear noise filtering predominantly increases extinction risks when population growth rate is low (R<5). As an exception, saturating filter has a window of decreased risk at very low growth rate and reddened environment. In the unstable range of the dynamics (15These results suggest that accounting for the non-linear responses to environment should be considered when estimating extinction risks and population variability. Moreover, the non-linear responses make noise colour a more important factor in these analyses.