The future as the key to the past for palaeobotany?

Continued increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO(2) and its possible effects on global climate has generated intense research interest on the likely responses of terrestrial plants and vegetation. Results from this new research provide quantitative information on plant function and growth in an environment with a high CO(2) concentration, but are also relevant to understanding plant growth in the distant past and to the techniques employed by palaeobotanists for reconstructing past climates from fossil plant remains. Experimental CO(2) enrichment of plants has demonstrated direct effects on leaf physiognomy, the tolerance of plants to low temperature and the relationship between tree rings, CO(2) and climate; it therefore signals the need for caution in interpreting palaeoclimates from fossils.     

Intra-annual rainfall variability and grassland productivity: can the past predict the future?

Precipitation quantity has been shown to influence grassland aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) positively whereas experimental increases in of temporal variability in water availability commonly exhibit a negative relationship with ANPP. We evaluated long term ANPP datasets from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program (1984–1999) to determine if similar relationships could be identified based on patterns of natural variability (magnitude and timing) in precipitation. ANPP data were analyzed from annually burned sites in native mesic grassland and productivity was partitioned into graminoid (principally C₄ grasses) and forb (C₃ herbaceous) components. Although growing season precipitation amount was the best single predictor of total and grass ANPP (r ²=0.62), several measures of precipitation variability were also significantly and positively correlated with productivity, independent of precipitation amount. These included soil moisture variability, expressed as CV, for June (r ²=0.45) and the mean change in soil moisture between weekly sampling periods in June and August (%wv) (r ²=0.27 and 0.32). In contrast, no significant relationships were found between forb productivity and any of the precipitation variables (p>0.05). A multiple regression model combining precipitation amount and both measures of soil moisture variability substantially increased the fit with productivity (r ²=0.82). These results were not entirely consistent with those of short-term manipulative experiments in the same grassland, however, because soil moisture variability was often positively, not negatively related to ANPP. Differences in results between long and short term experiments may be due to low variability in the historic precipitation record compared to that imposed experimentally as experimental levels of variability exceeded the natural variability of this dataset by a factor of two. Thus, forecasts of ecosystem responses to climate change (i.e. increased climatic variability), based on data constrained by natural and recent historical rainfall patterns may be inadequate for assessing climate change scenarios if precipitation variability in the future is expected to exceed current levels.     

Can climate matching predict the current and future climatic suitability of the UK for the establishment of non-native birds?

Capsule: Current UK distributions of non-native birds poorly match areas identified as being climatically suitable.

Aims: Non-native species are spreading at unprecedented rates and though invasions are expected to increase under climate change, evidence for this is mixed. We assess climatic suitability throughout the UK based on the apparent match to the climate in species’ native ranges and investigate potential climatic limitation within the non-native range.

Methods: Climate was characterized within polygons representing the native ranges of 167 potentially invasive species. Parts of the UK with current and future climate similar to that in the native range were deemed climatically suitable. The incidence of recent observations inside and outside suitable areas was used to test hypotheses about climatic limitation of non-native ranges.

Results: Climate matching suggests that 69 of 167 non-native bird species could currently find climatically suitable areas for establishment in the UK. Future climate change would see this number increase by 14% by 2080. However, observed occurrences of non-native species in the UK were not significantly correlated to climatic suitability. Only 44 of the 69 species with suitable climate in the UK were present. Moreover, 85% of species observed in the UK had some UK occurrences in climatically unsuitable areas and for 57 species their entire UK range was in climatically unsuitable areas. Similar results were apparent for the subset of 12 species with established UK populations.

Conclusions: Climate matching provides a relatively poor indication of the extent of current and future suitable areas because species can adapt to new climates or other factors constrain the native range and many climatically suitable areas are currently unoccupied. Improvements to climate matching techniques and ongoing surveillance are required to refine predictions to support effective management policies.     

Declining semen quality: Can the past inform the present?

By using instrumentation initially designed for counting white blood cells, sperm counts have been utilized by clinicians since 1929, particularly to evaluate cases of suspected infertility. Although this basic biological parameter might be assumed to be stable over time, several studies over the past 20 years have suggested a decline in sperm count or density. The most controversial of these analyses was published in 1992. A flood of criticism followed this analysis of 61 studies that found a 50% decline in sperm density between 1938 and 1990. Critics suggested that historical methods (of counting sperm or conducting studies) were variable and unreliable, differing from modern methods both qualitatively and quantitatively. To address this issue we analyzed these studies for trends in counting methods or their variability. We found neither. Alternative analyses produced some differences in trend estimates, but statistical factors alone could not account for the total decline in sperm density. We reviewed study populations to identify trends in population characteristics, such as abstinence time, that might explain the decline. However, controlling analytically for such factors only increased the rate of decline. We conclude that historical data on sperm density, despite large random error, are surprisingly reliable. Nonetheless, understanding causes of temporal and geographic differences in sperm density must await contemporary data. BioEssays 21:614–621, 1999. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Can transitive inference evolve in animals playing the hawk-dove game?

What should an individual do if there are no reliable cues to the strength of a competitor when fighting with it for resources? We herein examine the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the hawk-dove game, if the opponent's resource-holding potential (RHP) can only indirectly be inferred from the outcome of past interactions in the population. The strategies we examined include the classical mixed strategy in which no information on past games is utilized, the 'imprinting' strategy in which a player increases/decreases its aggressiveness if it wins/loses a game, the 'immediate inference' strategy in which a player can infer the strength of those opponents it fought before, and the 'transitive inference' strategy in which a player can infer the strength of a new opponent through a third party with which both players have fought before. Invasibility analysis for each pair of strategies revealed that (i) the transitive-inference strategy can always invade the mixed strategy and the imprinting strategy, and itself refuses invasion by these strategies; (ii) the largest advantage for transitive inference is achieved when the number of games played per individual in one generation is small and when the cost of losing an escalated game is large; (iii) the immediate inference, rather than the transitive inference, can be an ESS if the cost of fighting is small; (iv) a strong linear ranking is established in the population of transitive-inference strategists, though it does not perfectly correlate to the ranking by actual RHPs. We found that the advantage of the transitive inference is not in its ability to correct a misassessment (it is actually the worst in doing so), but in the ability of quickly lining up either incorrect or correct assessments to form a linear dominance hierarchy.     

Plant mitochondria – past,present and future

The study of plant mitochondria started in earnest around 1950 with the first isolations of mitochondria from animal and plant tissues. The first 35 years were spent establishing the basic properties of plant mitochondria and plant respiration using biochemical and physiological approaches. A number of unique properties (compared to mammalian mitochondria) were observed: (i) the ability to oxidize malate, glycine and cytosolic NAD(P)H at high rates; (ii) the partial insensitivity to rotenone, which turned out to be due to the presence of a second NADH dehydrogenase on the inner surface of the inner mitochondrial membrane in addition to the classical Complex I NADH dehydrogenase; and (iii) the partial insensitivity to cyanide, which turned out to be due to an alternative oxidase, which is also located on the inner surface of the inner mitochondrial membrane, in addition to the classical Complex IV, cytochrome oxidase. With the appearance of molecular biology methods around 1985, followed by genomics, further unique properties were discovered: (iv) plant mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is 10–600 times larger than the mammalian mtDNA, yet it only contains approximately 50% more genes; (v) plant mtDNA has kept the standard genetic code, and it has a low divergence rate with respect to point mutations, but a high recombinatorial activity; (vi) mitochondrial mRNA maturation includes a uniquely complex set of activities for processing, splicing and editing (at hundreds of sites); (vii) recombination in mtDNA creates novel reading frames that can produce male sterility; and (viii) plant mitochondria have a large proteome with 2000–3000 different proteins containing many unique proteins such as 200–300 pentatricopeptide repeat proteins. We describe the present and fairly detailed picture of the structure and function of plant mitochondria and how the unique properties make their metabolism more flexible allowing them to be involved in many diverse processes in the plant cell, such as photosynthesis, photorespiration, CAM and C4 metabolism, heat production, temperature control, stress resistance mechanisms, programmed cell death and genomic evolution. However, it is still a challenge to understand how the regulation of metabolism and mtDNA expression works at the cellular level and how retrograde signaling from the mitochondria coordinates all those processes.     

Pollen selection — past,present and future

 A series of studies, recently reviewed, has established that approximately 60% of the structural genes which are expressed in the sporophytic portion of the angiosperm life cycle are also expressed and exposed to selection in the pollen. Given the haploidy and large population sizes of pollen grains, a substantial portion of the sporophytic genome could thus be periodically exposed to a bacterial type of mass screening. This extraordinary possibility is often subject to some skepticism which may, of course, be justified. However, recent attempts to apply models appear to be inappropriate in this context, in part because these attempts overlook an important source of genetic variation, and also because they assume fixed values for selection and fitness. More recently, studies of pollen/pollen interactions have suggested that what Linskens termed the ”programic phase” may represent an arena for important, and largely unexplored phenomena, some of which are discussed here. Received: 3 June 1996 / Revision accepted: 26 July 1996     

Insects antiviral and anticancer peptides: new leads for the future?

Insect produce wide range of protein and peptides as a first fast defense line against pathogen infection. These agents act in different ways including insect immune system activation or by direct impact on the target tumor cells or viruses. It has been shown that some of the insect peptides suppress viral gene and protein expression, rybosilate DNA, whereas others cause membrane lysis, induce apoptosis or arrest cell cycle. Several of the purified and characterized peptides of insect origin are very promising in treating of serious human diseases like human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpex simplex virus (HSV) or leukaemia. However, some obstacles need to be overcome. Cytotoxic activity of peptides, susceptibility to proteases or high cost of production remain still unsolved problems. Reports on the peptides antiviral and antitumour mechanisms are scanty. Thus, in this review we present characteristic, mode of action and potential medical applications of insects origin peptides with the antiviral and antitumour activity.     

Plants and animals: a different taste for microbes?

Plants and animals can recognize potential pathogens by detecting pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Significant advances over the past few years have begun to unveil the molecular basis of PAMP perception by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs). Although these discoveries highlight common recognition strategies among higher eukaryotes, they also show differences with respect to the nature of the receptors involved and the exact molecular patterns recognized. This suggests a convergent evolution of microbe sensing by the innate immune systems of these various organisms.     

The prokaryotic tree of life: past, present... and future?

No accepted phylogenetic scheme for prokaryotes emerged until the late 1970s. Prior to that, it was assumed that there was a phylogenetic tree uniting all prokaryotes, but no suitable data were available for its construction. For 20 years, through the 1980s and 1990s, rRNA phylogenies were the gold standard. However, beginning in the last decade, findings from genomic data have challenged this new consensus. Gene trees can conflict greatly, and strains of the same species can differ enormously in genome content. Horizontal gene transfer is now known to be a significant influence on genome evolution. The next decade is likely to resolve whether or not we retain the centuries-old metaphor of the tree for all of life.     

What does the future hold for clinical microbiology?

In the past decade, clinical microbiology laboratories have undergone important changes with the introduction of molecular biology techniques and laboratory automation. In the future, there will be a need for more rapid diagnoses, increased standardization of testing and greater adaptability to cope with new threats from infectious microorganisms, such as agents of bioterrorism and emerging pathogens. The combination of the new tools that are now being developed in research laboratories, the general reorganization of clinical laboratories and improved communication between physicians and clinical microbiologists should lead to profound changes in the way that clinical microbiologists work.     

Artificial chromosomes: a blueprint for the future?

Recent developments in molecular genetics have led to the synthesis of an artificial human chromosome. Because the chromosome replicates and divides normally in human cells, this has exciting possibilities in terms of mankind's ability to influence evolutionary processes and to modify the human genome.