Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in a changing Arctic

The Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) is a candidate to be listed as an endangered species under United States law, in part, because of climate change‐related concerns. While the population was known to be declining in the 1980s and 1990s, its recent status has not been determined. We developed Bayesian models of walrus population dynamics to assess the population by synthesizing information on population sizes, age structures, reproductive rates, and harvests for 1974–2015. Candidate models allowed for temporal variation in some or all vital rates, as well as density dependence or density independence in reproduction and calf survival. All selected models indicated that the population underwent a multidecade decline, which began moderating in the 1990s, and that annual reproductive rate and natural calf survival rates rose over time in a density‐dependent manner. However, selected models were equivocal regarding whether the natural juvenile survival rate was constant or decreasing over time. Depending on whether juvenile survival decreased after 1998, the population growth rate either increased during 1999–2015 or stabilized at a lesser level of decline than seen in the 1980s. The probability that the population was still declining in 2015 ranged from 45% to 87%.     

Numerical responses by populations of red fox and mountain hare during an outbreak of sarcoptic mange

Summary During a severe outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei vulpes) starting among red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Sweden in the 1970s, we studied: 1) the establishment and spread of the disease in northernmost Sweden (by inquiries), and 2) the 1970–84 bag records for foxes and mountain hares (Lepus timidus) (an alternative prey to the fox's main prey, voles). Since the first case of sarcoptic mange in 1975 the disease spread rapidly, with >50% of the hunting organizations having reported the disease in 1981 and >75% in 1983. Also the disease became more abundant within the areas affected. In areas with a low mange infection rate (index) the number of foxes killed in the 1980s did not deviate markedly from the average level in the 1970s. However, there was a slight tendency towards a decline in areas with a medium index and numbers declined markedly where the index was high. Hare harvests initially were low (after a tularemia epidemic) in the 1970s. In that decade harvests increased dramatically and stabilized, increased gradually or changed little, respectively, where mange infection rates were low, medium or high in the early 1980s. In areas with a low mange index hare harvests remained cyclical and at the same level in the 1980s as in most of the 1970s. However, in areas with a medium index harvests increased and seemed to begin to lose their cyclicity, and where the index was high the low and relatively stable hare harvests increased annually. A predator-prey hypothesis, assuming predators to synchronize alternative prey declines to those of the cyclic main prey, predicts that a predator reduction would cause a gradual disappearance of the cyclicity and increasing numbers among alternative prey. Our hare data are partially consistent with this prediction.     

Predator–prey dynamics of bald eagles and glaucous‐winged gulls at Protection Island,Washington, USA

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Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974–2006

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming‐induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well‐documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age‐specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.     

Analysing Population Numbers of the House Sparrow in the Netherlands With a Matrix Model and Suggestions for Conservation Measures

The House Sparrow (Passer domesticus), formerly a common bird species, has shown a rapid decline in Western Europe over recent decades. In The Netherlands, its decline is apparent from 1990 onwards. Many causes for this decline have been suggested that all decrease the vital rates, i.e. survival and reproduction, but their actual impact remains unknown. Although the House Sparrow has been dominant in The Netherlands, data on life history characteristics for this bird species are scarce: data on reproduction are non-existent, and here we first present survival estimates based on live encounters and dead recoveries of marked individuals over the period 1976–2003, 14 years before and 14 years during the decline, reported to the Dutch Ringing Centre. We show that there is an indication that both juvenile and adult survival are lower during the period of decline. Secondly, to be able to analyse the relative impact of changes in the vital rates, we formulated a general matrix model based on a range of survival values between zero and one with a step size of 0.01 (both juvenile and adult yearly survival) and a range of realistic reproduction values (one, three or five fledglings per pair per year). With the matrix model, we calculated the finite rate of population change (λ) and applied elasticity analysis. To diagnose the cause of the decline in the Dutch House Sparrow, we parameterised the model with estimates of survival values before and during the decline and present the resulting λ. With the survival estimates from the declining period, λ < 1 only if reproduction is relatively low. We discuss this result within the light of available literature data on survival in the House Sparrow. Finally, we evaluate which of the suggested causes of population decline should be reversed to mitigate the decline and how this can be achieved.     

TRENDS IN AGE STRUCTURE AND PRODUCTIVITY OF PACIFIC WALRUSES HARVESTED IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION OF ALASKA, 1952–2002

Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) are harvested by subsistence hunters in Alaska as they migrate north through the Bering Strait in the spring. Harvest records and biological specimens have been collected from the Bering Strait communities of Little Diomede, Gambell, and Savoonga since the 1950s. Harvest levels in the Bering Strait region peaked in the late 1980s and declined thereafter; however, there was considerable variation in the size and composition of the harvests among communities and over time. The relationships among characteristics of the community harvests and the presence of temporal trends were investigated using generalized linear models. The proportion of females in the catch increased over time in all three communities, while the proportion pregnant among harvested females declined over the range of sample years. The ages of harvested walruses increased over time in all three communities through the 1980s, after which trends in age stabilized or began to decline. The age of first reproduction was significantly older for females sampled in 1975–1985 than for females sampled between 1952 and 1962 or 1992 and 1998. Factors thought to have influenced the size and composition of the catch over the past 50 yr include hunter preferences, harvest management regimes, environmental conditions, and changes in the population itself.     

A plant toxin mediated mechanism for the lag in snowshoe hare population recovery following cyclic declines

A necessary condition for a snowshoe hare population to cycle is reduced reproduction after the population declines. But the cause of a cyclic snowshoe hare population's reduced reproduction during the low phase of the cycle, when predator density collapses, is not completely understood. We propose that moderate‐severe browsing by snowshoe hares upon preferred winter‐foods could increase the toxicity of some of the hare's best winter‐foods during the following hare low, with the result being a decline in hare nutrition that could reduce hare reproduction. We used a combination of modeling and experiments to explore this hypothesis. Using the shrub birch Betula glandulosa as the plant of interest, the model predicted that browsing by hares during a hare cycle peak, by increasing the toxicity B. glandulosa twigs during the following hare low, could cause a hare population to cycle. The model's assumptions were verified with assays of dammarane triterpenes in segments of B. glandulosa twigs and captive hare feeding experiments conducted in Alaska during February and March 1986. The model's predictions were tested with estimates of hare density and measurements of B. glandulosa twig growth made at Kluane, Yukon from 1988–2008. The empirical tests supported the model's predictions. Thus, we have concluded that a browsing‐caused increase in twig toxicity that occurs during the hare cycle's low phase could reduce hare reproduction during the low phase of the hare cycle.     

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: causal connection or spurious correlation?

The recent paper by Brodie and Post (“Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack”, Popul Ecol 52:279–287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine’s (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data to index wolverine populations. The authors argue that, because the wolverine is a snow-dependent species, average annual provincial snowfall, based on weather station data, can be expected to correlate strongly and positively with wolverine population numbers, which in turn can be accurately indexed by trapper harvests. Thus, correlations between declines in wolverine harvests and declining average snowpack are interpreted to reflect a climate-driven decrease in wolverine populations. This conclusion overstates the nature of the wolverine’s association with snow, and makes unsupportable assumptions about the reliability of harvest data as a proxy for population size.     

Relative importance of human activities and climate driving common murre population trends in the Northwest Atlantic

Seabird populations are affected by environmental and anthropogenic influences on a global scale. Many population-level responses to climate change have been shown, yet few studies have addressed the additive and/or relative impact of environmental and anthropogenic influences on seabird populations. Using a mixed model approach, we analyzed the trends in plot counts of common murres (Uria aalge) from a Low Arctic colony at Cape St. Mary’s, Newfoundland, across 26 years (1980–2006). We tested for associations between population change and various environmental and anthropogenic covariates: water temperature, winter North Atlantic Oscillation, hunting mortality, oil pollution, by-catch in fishing gear, and visitor disturbance. The number of murres occupying central plots decreased from 1980 to 1989 and increased from 1990 to 2006. Annual changes in the population were negatively associated with the estimated number of murres killed in the Newfoundland murre hunt and the high numbers killed in the early 1980s likely caused the observed population decline. The large number of gillnets set in Newfoundland waters during the 1980s, and associated incidence of drowning through by-catch, probably also contributed to the observed decline. Though a centennially significant cold-water perturbation in 1991 forced a regime shift in pelagic food webs, the effect of ocean climate variability on the population was not obvious. We conclude that management efforts should focus on assessing and mitigating the effects of human-induced influences and consider the potential additive effects of climate change.     

Local and large-scale climatic variables as predictors of the breeding numbers of endangered Lesser Black-backed Gulls on the Norwegian Coast

In the 1970s and 1980s, the nominate subspecies of the Lesser Black-backed Gull (Larus fuscus fuscus) showed a dramatic drop in breeding numbers on the Norwegian Coast, and in 2000, the population in some colonies was only 10–20% of the population in 1980. This decline has been attributed to the collapse in the stock of Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea harengus). In this study, we examined whether local climate (sea and air temperatures), winter NAO (North Atlantic Oscilliation), and the year-class strength and size of 0-group herring could predict the relative changes in breeding numbers between years, mainly after the population collapse. Breeding birds were counted in 19 of the years between 1980 and 2007 in an archipelago on the coast of Helgeland, northern Norway. The best model predicting changes in breeding numbers for the period between 1980 and 2005 (for which data on 0-group herring was available) included mean local air temperature in winter (January–March) and winter NAO, explaining 57% of the variation between years, while the other factors had little effect. When also adding the years 2006–2007 (no herring data), the best model included only mean air temperature in winter, explaining 41% of the variation. In conclusion, the high positive correlation between breeding numbers and climatic factors probably resulted from a higher availability of important fish prey after mild winters, for which 0-group herring presently may only account for a limited proportion. However, this prey might have been of much more importance prior to the population decline.     

Censusing the mountain gorillas in the Virunga Volcanoes: complete sweep method versus monitoring

The mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) of the Virunga Volcanoes Range of Rwanda, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are one of the most endangered ape populations in the world. Following a dramatic decline during the 1960s, and relative stability in the 1970s, the population steadily increased during the 1980s. Due to political instability and war, a complete census had not been conducted since 1989. Here we compare the results of a complete census using the ‘sweep method’ conducted in 2003 with those from a monitoring program, to estimate the size and distribution of the gorilla population. A total of 360 gorillas were counted from census measurements and known habituated groups. Based on quantitative assessments of the census accuracy, we calculated that an additional 20 gorillas were not counted, leading to an estimated population of 380 individuals, and a 1.15% annual growth rate since 1989. The Ranger Based Monitoring programme yielded similar results. The encouraging results must be viewed with caution, however, because the growth was concentrated almost entirely in one section of the Virungas. Additionally, the distribution of gorilla groups was negatively correlated with the frequency of human disturbances, which highlights the need to continue strengthening conservation efforts.     

Ranking Alaska Moose Nutrition: Signals to Begin Liberal Antlerless Harvests

Abstract: We focused on describing low nutritional status in an increasing moose (Alces alces gigas) population with reduced predation in Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A near Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. A skeptical public disallowed liberal antlerless harvests of this moose population until we provided convincing data on low nutritional status. We ranked nutritional status in 15 Alaska moose populations (in boreal forests and coastal tundra) based on multiyear twinning rates. Data on age-of-first-reproduction and parturition rates provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in the 6 areas where comparative data were available. Also, short-yearling mass provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in 5 of the 6 areas where data were available. Data from 5 areas implied an inverse relationship between twinning rate and browse removal rate. Only in GMU 20A did nutritional indices reach low levels where justification for halting population growth was apparent, which supports prior findings that nutrition is a minor factor limiting most Alaska moose populations compared to predation. With predator reductions, the GMU 20A moose population increased from 1976 until liberal antlerless harvests in 2004. During 1997-2005, GMU 20A moose exhibited the lowest nutritional status reported to date for wild, noninsular, North American populations, including 1) delayed reproduction until moose reached 36 months of age and the lowest parturition rate among 36-month-old moose (29%, n = 147); 2) the lowest average multiyear twinning rates from late-May aerial surveys (x = 7%, SE = 0.9%, n = 9 yr, range = 3-10%) and delayed twinning until moose reached 60 months of age; 3) the lowest average mass of female short-yearlings in Alaska (x̄ = 155 ± 1.6 [SE] kg in the Tanana Flats subpopulation, up to 58 kg below average masses found elsewhere); and 4) high removal (42%) of current annual browse biomass compared to 9-26% elsewhere in boreal forests. When average multiyear twinning rates in GMU 20A (sampled during 1960-2005) declined to <10% in the mid- to late 1990s, we began encouraging liberal antlerless harvests, but only conservative annual harvests of 61-76 antlerless moose were achieved during 1996-2001. Using data in the context of our broader ranking system, we convinced skeptical citizen advisory committees to allow liberal antlerless harvests of 600-690 moose in 2004 and 2005, with the objective of halting population growth of the 16,000-17,000 moose; total harvests were 7-8% of total prehunt numbers. The resulting liberal antlerless harvests served to protect the moose population's health and habitat and to fulfill a mandate for elevated yield. Liberal antlerless harvests appear justified to halt population growth when multiyear twinning rates average ≤10% and ≥1 of the following signals substantiate low nutritional status: <50% of 36-month-old moose are parturient, average multiyear short-yearling mass is <175 kg, or >35% of annual browse biomass is removed by moose.     

A reappraisal of the population dynamics of the pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, on lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, in Scotland

The pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, is a defoliating pest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests in Scotland. This article reviews early and recent research on the population ecology of Panolis flammea and presents an analysis of pupal survey data collected between 1977 and 1993. Research in the 1980s suggested that natural enemies, although effective in preventing P. flammea outbreaks on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), played an insignificant role in the population dynamics of P. flammea on lodgepole pine. However, analysis of pupal survey data showed that delayed density-dependent action of natural enemies, probably parasitoids, was overlooked during the 1970s and 1980s. Recent research suggests that fungal pathogens are responsible for a decline in the frequency and severity of outbreaks of P. flammea on lodgepole pine. This suggestion, together with the overlooked importance of other natural enemies, indicates that the population ecology of P. flammea in Scotland has changed during the past 20 years and requires a full reappraisal. Received: May 31, 1999 / Accepted: August 18, 1999     

Causes of the eelgrass wasting disease: Van der Werff's changing theories

The 1930's wasting disease among the North Atlantic population of eelgrass,Zostera marina, is still an ecological and historical enigma, despite several attractive theories. Van der Werff investigated the die-back of eelgrass in the thirties in the Dutch Wadden Sea, and he considered the micro-organismLabyrinthula as the possible cause of the disease. In 1980, Grevelingen lagoon, harbouring an extensive population ofZostera marina, experienced a major decline of the area covered by the submerged macrophyte. Speculations about the cause of this dramatic decline induced us to think that the wasting disease had struck again. Van der Werff investigated the Grevelingen population and found bothLabyrinthula and a Chaetophoracean endophytic alga to be presumably responsible for the decline. During the quest for the ultimate cause of the wasting disease the question remains whether both micro-organisms are the cause of the disease or simply an effect of decomposition processes triggered by other factors.     

Life‐history constraints on maximum population growth for loggerhead turtles in the northwest Atlantic

Conservation planning for protected species often relies on estimates of life‐history parameters. A commonly used parameter is the instantaneous maximum population growth rate (r_max) that can be used to limit removals and design recovery targets. Estimation of r_max can be challenging because of limited availability of species‐ and population‐specific data and life‐history information. We applied a method proposed by Neil and Lebreton, originally developed for birds, to loggerhead turtles. The method uses age‐at‐first‐reproduction and adult survival to estimate r_max. We used a variety of datasets and matrix population models to confirm an allometric assumption required by the method, and to generate estimates of age‐at‐first‐reproduction and adult survival. A meta‐analysis was applied to parameters from reported growth curves, which were then combined with the size distribution of neophyte nesters to derive estimates of age‐at‐first‐reproduction. Adult survival rates were obtained from an existing matrix population model. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to combine the estimates of the allometric coefficients, age‐at‐first‐reproduction, and adult survival to obtain a probability distribution of approximate r_max values. Estimated annual maximum population growth rates averaged 0.024, with a mode of 0.017 and a 95% highest density interval of 0.006–0.047. These estimates were similar to values reported by others using different methods and captured the variability in positive, annual change estimates across nesting beach sites for the northwest Atlantic loggerhead population. The use of life‐history parameters has a long history in wildlife and fisheries management and conservation planning. Our estimates of r_max, while having some biases and uncertainty, encompassed values presently used in recovery planning for loggerhead turtles and offer additional information for the management of endangered and threatened species.     

Population trends in Swedish raptors demonstrated by migration counts at Falsterbo,Sweden 1942–97

The autumn migration of raptors at Falsterbo, Sweden has been studied since the early 1940s, and from 1973 standardized counts were made. Here we present data for 15 species over a 39-year period from 1942–97. These are discussed in the context of available information on population trends in Sweden and neighbouring countries. Although annual numbers and concentration rate vary considerably between species, population changes are very well reflected in the migration figures from Falsterbo. Most raptors showed stable populations at a fairly high level during the 1940s, but a marked decline was already obvious in White-tailed Eagle Haliaeetus albicilla and Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus. During the 1950s and 1960s, a more or less steep decline occurred in most species. Four species started to increase during the 1960s, but the real change came during the 1970s. At that time, decreased human persecution and a reduction in the effects from pesticides resulted in a general increase in Scandinavian raptors, with only Honey Buzzard Pernis apivorus continuing to decrease. The increases continued during the 1980s, but in the 1990s many raptors seem to have reached stable numbers or to have started to decline again. Two species, Marsh Harrier Circus aeruginosus and Montagu's Harrier C. pygargus show a positive trend through the study period. Numbers of Northern Harrier Circus cyaneus, Rough-legged Buzzard Buteo lagopus and Eurasian Kestrel Falco tinnunculus stabilized during the 1980s and show a clear decline since then, most probably due to a general lack of rodent peaks in Northern Scandinavia since 1982. Most species of raptors seem to be doing reasonably well at the moment, but a continuous decline in Honey Buzzard and Common Buzzard Buteo buteo is disturbing, and is possibly due to declining proportions of old deciduous forest and grazed meadows in Scandinavia. Since a general census programme of birds of prey does not exist in Sweden, the migration counts at Falsterbo is the best general method of monitoring population changes.     

The effects of changes in food availability on the breeding ecology of great skuas Catharacta skua in Shetland

Great skuas on Foula, Shetland have responded to a decline in the availability of sandeels since the late 1970s by increasing the proportion of other items in their diets. This change is correlated with the annual recruitment of sandeels in Shetland waters. Since 1983 there has been a 10-fold increase in predation by great skuas upon other seabirds, as Furness & Hislop (1981) suggested might occur in response to a low availability of sandeels. Changes in diet have been accompanied by a 50% reduction in adult territorial attendance as adults increased their foraging effort, such that between 1987 and 1989 breeding adults were probably working as hard as they were able to. Despite this, breeding success was less than 40% in 1987 and less than 15% in 1988 and 1989. The major cause of breeding failure was predation of unguarded chicks by adults from neighbouring territories. The willingness of adults to expose their chicks to high predation risk is probably maintained because of a positive correlation between chick pre-fledging growth and post-fledging survival, which is expressed up to the age of two years and which will place a strong pressure upon adults to feed their chicks as well as possible. The high expenditure of effort by adults in 1987 and 1988 did not affect the weights of those birds incubating eggs in 1988 and 1989, but there was a slight (3%) decrease in egg size between the late 1970s and the late 1980s. Changes in the age structure of the breeding population and the absence in 1989 of 28% of adults colour-ringed during incubation in 1988 suggest an increase in the rate of egress since the 1970s. These changes probably represent an increase in the long-term costs of reproduction to adults at this colony.     

Replacement of the native crayfish Astacus astacus by the introduced species Pacifastacus leniusculus in a small, enclosed Finnish lake: a 30-year study

The native noble crayfish Astacus astacus L., and the introduced North American signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus Dana, co‐occur in Slickolampi, a small lake in southern Finland. That both species have lived side‐by‐side for 30 yr without any signs of crayfish plague Aphanomyces astaci, indicates that the P. leniusculus population must be plague‐free. According to annual trap catches and population size estimates, A. astacus was clearly dominant in the 1970s and most of the 1980s. At the end of the 1980s, however, there was a shift in the relative abundances of the two species, and in the 1990s, P.leniusculus became dominant. As the 1990s drew to a close, it accounted for >98% of total catches. Originating from a minor stocking (only 900 2nd stage juveniles) P. leniusculus has not augmented the existing fauna in this lake but has almost completely replaced A. astacus. Both species seem to a great extent to prefer the same types of biotope but P. leniusculus is distinctly more demanding and was encountered less often than A. astacus on gently‐sloping soft shores. The proportion of A. astacus with chelae injuries (16 yr, mean 17.3%) was nearly twice that of P. leniusculus (9.3%), suggesting that agonistic interspecific encounters do occur and that P. leniusculus is much more competitive. However, the consistent weakening of A. astacus, even at sites with only a low density of P. leniusculus, indicates that the elimination of A. astacus is not adequately explained by competitive exclusion. We suggest that its disappearance is governed by a combination of several interacting mechanisms, of which harvest (≥100 mm specimens of both species) and interspecific competition with P.leniusculus were initially the main reasons for the decline in the population. The ultimate reason for the collapse of A. astacus seems to have been the almost complete cessation of successful reproduction, presumably due to reproductive interference between the two species. Interspecific mating results in females laying sterile eggs. Although both species suffer from the ensuing loss of recruitment, the consequences are less serious for P. leniusculus, which has a higher capacity for population increase than A. astacus: the smaller the proportion of A. astacus, the greater the role played by reproductive interference as a replacement mechanism.     

Long-term data on invaders: when the fox is away, the mink will play

Studies of the effects and population dynamics of invasive species typically cover only short time periods. However, populations of invasive species interact with native species, and these interactions may have strong effects on invaders’ populations and effects over time. We present and analyze long-term data on invasive American mink (Neovison vison), native red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and mountain hare (Lepus timidus) in Sweden. The mink’s population dynamics followed a pattern of logistic growth from the late 1930s to the late 1970s. In the early 1980s, however, the population tripled, then declined sharply. We suggest that the mink’s population tripling was caused by a drastic decline in red fox populations, which caused terrestrial prey to increase. Later recovery of the fox population reversed the trend and caused the mink population’s recent decline. Our study shows that species interactions between native and invasive species, and therefore biotic resistance, can change dramatically over time.     

Is reversing the decline of Asian elephants in North American zoos possible? An individual‐based modeling approach

Demographic models are important tools for assessing population status, diagnosing potential causes of population decline, and comparing management strategies that might change population trajectory. The population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) maintained in North American zoos has been declining for the past decade, and Wiese ([2000] Zoo. Biol. 19:299–309) predicted a continued decline in the population using an age‐based matrix model. We developed an individual‐based model to further explore the demographic issues of the population. Our model allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the prospects for slowing or reversing the decline given the potential management strategies of improving reproduction, reducing infant mortality, altering birth sex ratio, and recruiting additional individuals from outside the population. Our simulations showed that if current demographic trends continued, the population would continue to decline at 2%/year. It was possible to create sustainable simulations, but these required a large increase in the annual number of births produced. Increasing reproduction was the most effective strategy to slow the decline, whereas other management strategies had the most impact when combined with increases in reproduction. Almost all simulations resulted in large changes in population structure, with increases in the male population and decreases in the female population. Given the population's demographic issues, it will be difficult to either increase the population substantially or sustain it at its current size. Zoo Biol 25:201–218, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.