When can dispersal synchronize populations?

While spatial synchrony of oscillating populations has been observed in many ecological systems, the causes of this phenomenon are still not well understood. The most common explanations have been the Moran effect (synchronous external stochastic influences) and the effect of dispersal among populations. Since ecological systems are typically subject to large spatially varying perturbations which destroy synchrony, a plausible mechanism explaining synchrony must produce rapid convergence to synchrony. We analyze the dynamics through time of the synchronizing effects of dispersal and, consequently, determine whether dispersal can be the mechanism which produces synchrony. Specifically, using methods new to ecology, we analyze a two patch predator-prey model, with identical weak dispersal between the patches. We find that a difference in time scales (i.e. one population has dynamics occurring much faster than the other) between the predator and prey species is the most important requirement for fast convergence to synchrony.     

Do mountain hare populations cycle?

We investigated the occurrence and distribution of multi-annual cycles in abundance of mountain hare populations across a wide area of their range in northern Europe. We analysed 125 time-series of mountain hare abundance indexed from hunting bag records and questionnaire responses from Scotland, Sweden, Finland and Switzerland. We also reanalysed 17 previously published time-series based on hunting bag records and snow track indices from mountain hare populations in Scotland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia and Italy. Autocorrelation analysis showed that 45% of mountain hare populations showed evidence of cycles, characterised by significant negative autocorrelations at half or the whole cycle period. The amplitude and periodicity of cycles varied between and within countries. Time-series in Scotland were characterised by high-amplitude weak cycles with a mean periodicity of nine years but with a range of 4–15 years. Norwegian and Swedish time-series revealed low amplitude weak cycles with a 3–7 year period. Finnish time-series showed low amplitude cycles with a 4–11 year period. Alpine time-series were predominantly non-cyclic, while the limited number of series from Russia showed high amplitude weak cycles with an 8–11 year period. The results reveal that mountain hare populations show a wide range of population dynamics with distinct regional differences in periodicity, amplitude and density dependent structure of cycles. These findings suggest that different factors may limit or regulate mountain hare populations in different regions of Europe thus supporting the results of recent field studies.     

βs Haplotypes in various world populations

Summary We have determined the ^s haplotypes in 709 patients with sickle cell anemia, 30 with SC disease, 91 with S--thalassemia, and in 322 Hb S heterozygotes from different countries. The methodology concerned the detection of mutations in the promoter sequences of the ^G- and ^A-globin genes through dot blot analysis of amplified DNA with ³²P-labeled probes, and an analysis of isolated Hb F by reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography to detect the presence of the ^AT chain [^A75 (E19) IleThr] that is characteristic for haplotype 17 (Cameroon). The results support previously published data obtained with conventional methodology that indicates that the ^s gene arose separately in different locations. The present methodology has the advantage of being relatively inexpensive and fast, allowing the collection of a vast body of data in a short period of time. It also offers the opportunity of identifying unusual ^s haplotypes that may be associated with a milder expression of the disease. The numerous blood samples obtained from many SS patients living in different countries made it possible to compare their hematological data. Such information is included (as average values) for 395 SS patients with haplotype 19/19, for 2 with haplotype 17/17, for 50 with haplotype 20/20, for 2 with haplotype 3/3, and for 37 with haplotype 31/31. Some information on haplotype characteristics of normal ^A chromosomes is also presented.     

Cell—cell interactions in bacterial populations

In developing bacterial populations many essential processes, such as division, genetic transformation, sporulation, and synthesis of antibiotics and secondary metabolites, are regulated by intercellular communication mediated by secretion of signaling molecules, such as homoserine lactones and peptides. Another intercellular communication type, namely a physical contact between cells (cell aggregation), plays a key role in formation of biofilms or cellular consortia and in cell proliferation under unfavorable conditions. The mechanisms involved in these two types of bacterial communication are discussed in this review.Translated from Biokhimiya, Vol. 69, No. 11, 2004, pp. 1555–1564.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Voloshin, Kaprelyants     

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.     

Muller’s ratchet in symbiont populations

Muller’s ratchet, the inevitable accumulation of deleterious mutations in asexual populations, has been proposed as a major factor in genome degradation of obligate symbiont organisms. Essentially, if left unchecked the ratchet will with certainty cause extinction due to the ever increasing mutational load. This paper examines the evolutionary fate of insect symbionts, using mathematical modelling to simulate the accumulation of deleterious mutations. We investigate the effects of a hierarchical two level population structure. Since each host contains its own subpopulation of symbionts, there will be a large number of small symbiont populations linked indirectly via selection on the host level. We show that although the separate subpopulations will accumulate deleterious mutations quickly, the symbiont population as a whole will be protected from extinction by selection acting on the hosts. As a consequence, the extent of genome degradation observed in present day symbionts is more likely to represent loss of functions that were (near-) neutral to the host, rather than a snap shot of a decline towards complete genetic collapse.     

Can altruism evolve in purely viscous populations?

Summary Limited dispersal is often thought to facilitate the evolution of altruism by increasing the degree of relatedness among interacting individuals. Limited dispersal can have additional effects, however, such as local population regulation, that inhibits the evolution of altruism. Many models of structured populations assume that a viscous stage of the life cycle alternates with a global mixing stage, which allows the advantages of interactions among close relatives without the disadvantages of local population regulation. Here we analyse a computer simulation model of pure population viscosity, in which offspring are always deposited close to parents and no global mixing stage exists. As expected, limited dispersal generates a high coefficient of relatedness among interacting individuals. Patches of altruists, however, are unable to export their productivity to other regions of the landscape and are easily invaded by selfish types from neighbouring patches. Unlike models of alternating viscosity, in which high relatedness and local population regulation can be decoupled, these two opposing effects are inextricably linked in purely viscous populations, which therefore are not conducive to the evolution of altruistic traits.     

Coexistence of competing juvenile–adult structured populations

The Leslie-Gower model is a discrete time analog of the competition Lotka–Volterra model and is known to possess the same dynamic scenarios of that famous model. The Leslie–Gower model played a historically significant role in the history of competition theory in its application to classic laboratory experiments of two competing species of flour beetles (carried out by Park in the 1940s–1960s). While these experiments generally supported what became the Competitive Exclusion Principle, Park observed an anomalous coexistence case. Recent literature has discussed Park’s ‘coexistence case’ by means of non-Lotka–Volterra, non-equilibrium dynamics that occur in a high dimensional model with life cycle stages. We study this dynamic possibility in the lowest possible dimension, that is to say, by means of a model involving only two species each with two life cycle stages. We do this by extending the Leslie–Gower model so as to describe the competitive interaction of two species with juvenile and adult classes. We give a complete account of the global dynamics of the resulting model and show that it allows for non-equilibrium competitive coexistence as competition coefficients are increased. We also show that this phenomenon occurs in a general class of models for competing populations structured by juvenile and adult life cycle stages.     

Viable populations in a prey–predator system

 Lotka–Volterra equations are considered a dynamical game, where the phenotypes of the predator and of the prey can vary. This differs from the usual procedure of specifying as a priori laws according to which strategies are supposed to change. The question at stake is the survival of each of the species, instead of the maximization of a given pay-off by each player, as it is commonly discussed in games. The predator needs the prey, while the prey can survive without the predator. These obvious and simplistic constraints are enough to shape the regulation of the system: notably, the largest closed set of initial conditions can be delineated, from which there exists at least one evolutionary path where the population can avoid extinction forever. To these so-called viable trajectories, viable strategies are associated, respectively for the prey or for the predator. A coexistence set can then be defined. Within this set and outside the boundary, strategies can vary arbitrarily within given bounds while remaining viable, whereas on the boundary, only specific strategies can guarantee the viability of the system. Thus, the largest set can be determined, outside of which strategies will never be flexible enough to avoid extinction. Received 2 May 1995; received in revised form 15 August 1995     

Does heterozygosity estimate inbreeding in real populations?

Many recent studies report that individual heterozygosity at a handful of apparently neutral microsatellite markers is correlated with key components of fitness, with most studies invoking inbreeding depression as the likely underlying mechanism. The implicit assumption is that an individual's inbreeding coefficient can be estimated reliably using only 10 or so markers, but the validity of this assumption is unclear. Consequently, we have used individual-based simulations to examine the conditions under which heterozygosity and inbreeding are likely to be correlated. Our results indicate that the parameter space in which this occurs is surprisingly narrow, requiring that inbreeding events are both frequent and severe, for example, through selfing, strong population structure and/or high levels of polygyny. Even then, the correlations are strong only when large numbers of loci (~200) can be deployed to estimate heterozygosity. With the handful of markers used in most studies, correlations only become likely under the most extreme scenario we looked at, namely 20 demes of 20 individuals coupled with strong polygyny. This finding is supported by the observation that heterozygosity is only weakly correlated among markers within an individual, even in a dataset comprising 400 markers typed in diverse human populations, some of which favour consanguineous marriages. If heterozygosity and inbreeding coefficient are generally uncorrelated, then heterozygosity-fitness correlations probably have little to do with inbreeding depression. Instead, one would need to invoke chance linkage between the markers used and one or more gene(s) experiencing balancing selection. Unfortunately, both explanations sit somewhat uncomfortably with current understanding. If inbreeding is the dominant mechanism, then our simulations indicate that consanguineous mating would have to be vastly more common than is predicted for most realistic populations. Conversely, if heterosis provides the answer, there need to be many more polymorphisms with major fitness effects and higher levels of linkage disequilibrium than are generally assumed.     

Are tsetse fly populations close to equilibrium?

Glossina or tsetse flies, the vectors of sleeping sickness, form a unique group of insects with remarkable characteristics. They are viviparous with a slow rhythm of reproduction (one larva approximately every 10 days) determined by the regular ovulation of alternate ovaries. This unusual physiology enables the age of the females to be estimated by examining the ovaries.The resulting ovarian age structure of tsetse fly populations has been used to develop research into the demography of tsetse flies. Several authors have proposed methods of estimating population growth rates from ovarian age distribution data. However, such methods are applicable only when the growth rate () is equal to 1 (i.e. the intrinsic rate of increase r is equal to 0). In fact, in this type of estimation, the adult survival rate a (or equivalently the mortality rate) cannot be dissociated from the growth rate.Other independently determined demographic parameters must be used to remove this lack of identiflability. We have built a matrix model of the dynamics of tsetse fly populations which enables the growth rate to be calculated from the pupal survival rate, the pupal period and the adult survival rate. Assuming that the age-groups of the population studied have reached a stable distribution, it is possible to calculate the probabilities for the observed sample of belonging to each of the age-groups, to construct a likelihood function and thus to obtain an estimate of the apparent survival rate = a/ If the pupal survival rate and the pupal period are known, a and can then be calculated from .The application of this method to data collected for over two annual cycles in a savannah habitat (Burkina-Faso) showed a high overall stability in the populations of Glossina palpalis gambiensis. Seasonal fluctuations could be easily interpreted as being the result of climatic changes between the dry and rainy seasons.     

Are Brazil nut populations threatened by fruit harvest?

Harvest of Brazil nuts from the large, iconic tree Bertholletia excelsa generates substantial income for smallholders, providing a strong incentive to conserve the mature forests where it grows. Although much previous work has focused on the impact of nut harvest on new seedling recruits into B. excelsa populations, the connection between harvest rates and long‐term population stability is still unclear. Moreover, there is additional uncertainty for Brazil nut management in terms of population response to climate change and other anthropogenic influences. We drew on 14 years of research in two sites in Acre, Brazil with different B. excelsa nut harvest intensities (39% and 81%), to produce stochastic and deterministic matrix population models which incorporated parameter uncertainty in vital rates. Adult abundance was projected to remain close to the current observed abundance or higher through the next 50 years. Elasticity analyses revealed that the asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to stasis vital rates in sapling, juvenile, and adult stages. Deterministic transition matrices calculated using diameter growth rates dependent on rainfall yielded average λ values around 1.0 under extreme high, extreme low, and average annual rainfall. While sustained high rates of Brazil nut harvest and climate change could potentially negatively impact B. excelsa populations, changes in human use of the forested landscape are more immediate concern. To reduce the risk of population decline, smallholders and managers of B. excelsa rich forests should focus on conservation of pre‐mature and mature individuals.     

What regulate and limit reindeer populations in Norway?

An understanding of how species are affected by top-down and bottom-up processes in food webs, and how these forces interact with climatic conditions is crucial for how ecosystems should be managed. In Norway large carnivores are effectively removed from extensive areas to protect livestock, leaving human harvesting as the only significant top-down force on ungulate populations. We examined the relative role of top-down and bottom-up processes for 58 semi-domesticated reindeer populations in Norway subjected to contrasting climatic regimes over the period 1981–2005. Intensive herding and international agreement have resulted in a situation where some populations are unable to undertake seasonal migration to the interior to escape the unfavourable climatic conditions that rule the coastal region in the winter, a critical season for northern ungulates. We used this natural manipulation to contrast between populations with 'poor' and 'good' winter conditions. For populations with good winter conditions, average body size increased with harvesting, suggesting that some top-down process was necessary to avoid food limitation. Time-series analyses revealed that direct regulation of population size was only evident in populations subjected to intensive harvesting. The lack of direct regulation in populations subjected to low harvesting resulted in high vulnerability to harsh winter weather. The body size and climate vulnerability of populations with poor winter conditions was unaffected of harvesting, but average densities was positively related to overall vegetation productivity as indexed by satellite images (NDVI). Top-down processes appeared to be necessary to dampen the effect of harsh winters in populations with generally good winter conditions. Conversely, populations subjected to generally poor winter conditions appeared to be more influenced by bottom-up processes and buffered climatic perturbations by increasing body size.     

Albumin — vitamin D-binding protein haplotypes in Asian-Pacific populations

Summary We have determined the various haplotypic combinations between alleles as well as restriction fragment length polymorphisms of two linked genetic markers, albumin and vitamin D-binding protein or group-specific component, in a number of Asian-Pacific populations. Using the partial maximum likelihood method, we constructed a phylogenetic network from the haplotype frequencies to assess relationships among the populations sampled. No systematic linkage disequilibrium was detected between most of the combinations, suggesting a lack of operation of any selection pressure at the two loci. The phylogenetic analysis confirmed the known interrelationships among various populations in the Asian-Pacific region. The Australian aborigines clustered closely with the non-Austronesian-speaking highlanders from Papua New Guinea, as expected. Similarly, the Austronesian-speaking Polynesians, Micronesians, and the Southeast Asians branched off together as a separate group. The position of the Austronesian-speaking Tolais from New Britain with respect to other populations from the Southwest Pacific was anomalous. The Tolais revealed a strong affinity with the Australian aborigines, which is inexplicable. The populations from China formed a tight cluster with other populations from the Asian-Pacific region. Genetic interrelationships of these populations with the white Australians were remote, which is in accordance with the known affinities of various human racial groups.     

Can water mites control populations of planktonic Cladocera?

Predatory pelagic water mites, Piona sp., in a small subtropical lake of Argentina showed rapid numerical response and protection from fish consumption. In experiments, predation rates of Piona on cladocerans equalled those of the principle lake planktivore, Moenkhausia intermedia Eigenmann (about 100 prey · predator^–1 day^–1). As a result, the mites caused a summer depression in the dominant lake zooplankter, Daphnia laevis Birge, evidenced by the analysis of its population dynamics and simple modelling.