A Comparison of Procedures for Adaptive Choice of Location Tests in Flexible Two‐Stage Designs

Although linear rank statistics for the two‐sample problem are distribution free tests, their power depends on the distribution of the data. In the planning phase of an experiment, researchers are often uncertain about the shape of this distribution and so the choice of test statistic for the analysis and the determination of the required sample size are based on vague information. Adaptive designs with interim analysis can potentially overcome both problems. And in particular, adaptive tests based on a selector statistic are a solution to the first. We investigate whether adaptive tests can be usefully implemented in flexible two‐stage designs to gain power. In a simulation study, we compare several methods for choosing a test statistic for the second stage of an adaptive design based on interim data with the procedure that applies adaptive tests in both stages. We find that the latter is a sensible approach that leads to the best results in most situations considered here. The different methods are illustrated using a clinical trial example.     

Adaptive dose-finding: Proof of concept with type I error control

We consider an adaptive dose‐finding study with two stages. The doses for the second stage will be chosen based on the first stage results. Instead of considering pairwise comparisons with placebo, we apply one test to show an upward trend across doses. This is a possibility according to the ICH‐guideline for dose‐finding studies (ICH‐E4). In this article, we are interested in trend tests based on a single contrast or on the maximum of multiple contrasts. We are interested in flexibly choosing the Stage 2 doses including the possibility to add doses. If certain requirements for the interim decision rules are fulfilled, the final trend test that ignores the adaptive nature of the trial (naïve test) can control the type I error. However, for the more common case that these requirements are not fulfilled, we need to take the adaptivity into account and discuss a method for type I error control. We apply the general conditional error approach to adaptive dose‐finding and discuss special issues appearing in this application. We call the test based on this approach Adaptive Multiple Contrast Test. For an example, we illustrate the theory discussed before and compare the performance of several tests for the adaptive design in a simulation study.     

Weighted Logrank Testing Procedures for the Simple Tree Alternatives

Weighted logrank testing procedures for comparing r treatments with a control when some of the data are randomly censored are discussed. Four kinds of test statistics for the simple tree alternatives are considered. The weighted logrank statistics based on pairwise ranking scheme is proposed and the covariances of the test statistics are explicitly obtained. This class of test statistics can be viewed as the general statistics of constructing the test procedures for various order restricted alternatives by modifying weights. Four kinds of weighted logrank tests are illustrated with an example. Simulation studies are performed to compare the sizes and the powers of the considered tests with the other.     

A Bootstrap Procedure for Adaptive Selection of the Test Statistic in Flexible Two‐Stage Designs

Adaptive two‐stage designs allow a data‐driven change of design characteristics during the ongoing trial. One of the available options is an adaptive choice of the test statistic for the second stage of the trial based on the results of the interim analysis. Since there is often only a vague knowledge of the distribution shape of the primary endpoint in the planning phase of a study, a change of the test statistic may then be considered if the data indicate that the assumptions underlying the initial choice of the test are not correct. Collings and Hamilton proposed a bootstrap method for the estimation of the power of the two‐sample Wilcoxon test for shift alternatives. We use this approach for the selection of the test statistic. By means of a simulation study, we show that the gain in terms of power may be considerable when the initial assumption about the underlying distribution was wrong, whereas the loss is relatively small when in the first instance the optimal test statistic was chosen. The results also hold true for comparison with a one‐stage design. Application of the method is illustrated by a clinical trial example.     

Tests for Homogeneity of Variances Using Robust Weighted Likelihood Estimates

The classical normal-theory tests for testing the null hypothesis of common variance and the classical estimates of scale have long been known to be quite nonrobust to even mild deviations from normality assumptions for moderate sample sizes. Levene (1960) suggested a one-way ANOVA type statistic as a robust test. Brown and Forsythe (1974) considered a modified version of Levene's test by replacing the sample means with sample medians as estimates of population locations, and their test is computationally the simplest among the three tests recommended by Conover , Johnson , and Johnson (1981) in terms of robustness and power. In this paper a new robust and powerful test for homogeneity of variances is proposed based on a modification of Levene's test using the weighted likelihood estimates (Markatou , Basu , and Lindsay , 1996) of the population means. For two and three populations the proposed test using the Hellinger distance based weighted likelihood estimates is observed to achieve better empirical level and power than Brown-Forsythe's test in symmetric distributions having a thicker tail than the normal, and higher empirical power in skew distributions under the use of F distribution critical values.     

On the Comparison of Two Observed Frequencies

A significance measure essentially due to Liebermeister and dating back to 1877 may be preferable to Fisher's Exact Test, a conservative but commonly applied test when the sample sizes are small. We show that Liebermeister's measure is less conservative than Fisher's P‐value and just as easy to calculate, while retaining the important features of a significance measure. We also compare Liebermeister's measure with Lancaster's mid‐P, which has gained increasing acceptance as a replacement for Fisher's P‐value. Application is made to a recent striking medical study on appendicitis symptoms for which the Fisher test does not give significance.     

An Analogue of Jonckheere's Trend Test for Parametric and Dichotomous Data

The Jonckheere test is a widely used test for trend in the nonparametric location model. We present an analogue of Jonckheere's test which can be performed both for normally and binomially distributed endpoints. This test is a contrast test, therefore, we can also construct a reverse test. It is shown that in several situations the proposed tests are superior to the Helmert and the reverse-Helmert contrast tests in terms of size and power, especially for finite dichotomous data. The tests are applied to data of two preclinical studies.     

Interim analysis incorporating short‐ and long‐term binary endpoints

Designs incorporating more than one endpoint have become popular in drug development. One of such designs allows for incorporation of short‐term information in an interim analysis if the long‐term primary endpoint has not been yet observed for some of the patients. At first we consider a two‐stage design with binary endpoints allowing for futility stopping only based on conditional power under both fixed and observed effects. Design characteristics of three estimators: using primary long‐term endpoint only, short‐term endpoint only, and combining data from both are compared. For each approach, equivalent cut‐off point values for fixed and observed effect conditional power calculations can be derived resulting in the same overall power. While in trials stopping for futility the type I error rate cannot get inflated (it usually decreases), there is loss of power. In this study, we consider different scenarios, including different thresholds for conditional power, different amount of information available at the interim, different correlations and probabilities of success. We further extend the methods to adaptive designs with unblinded sample size reassessments based on conditional power with inverse normal method as the combination function. Two different futility stopping rules are considered: one based on the conditional power, and one from P‐values based on Z‐statistics of the estimators. Average sample size, probability to stop for futility and overall power of the trial are compared and the influence of the choice of weights is investigated.     

K‐Sample comparisons using propensity analysis

In this paper, we investigate K‐group comparisons on survival endpoints for observational studies. In clinical databases for observational studies, treatment for patients are chosen with probabilities varying depending on their baseline characteristics. This often results in noncomparable treatment groups because of imbalance in baseline characteristics of patients among treatment groups. In order to overcome this issue, we conduct propensity analysis and match the subjects with similar propensity scores across treatment groups or compare weighted group means (or weighted survival curves for censored outcome variables) using the inverse probability weighting (IPW). To this end, multinomial logistic regression has been a popular propensity analysis method to estimate the weights. We propose to use decision tree method as an alternative propensity analysis due to its simplicity and robustness. We also propose IPW rank statistics, called Dunnett‐type test and ANOVA‐type test, to compare 3 or more treatment groups on survival endpoints. Using simulations, we evaluate the finite sample performance of the weighted rank statistics combined with these propensity analysis methods. We demonstrate these methods with a real data example. The IPW method also allows us for unbiased estimation of population parameters of each treatment group. In this paper, we limit our discussions to survival outcomes, but all the methods can be easily modified for any type of outcomes, such as binary or continuous variables.     

Combining multiple biomarker models in logistic regression

Summary .   In medical research, there is great interest in developing methods for combining biomarkers. We argue that selection of markers should also be considered in the process. Traditional model/variable selection procedures ignore the underlying uncertainty after model selection. In this work, we propose a novel model-combining algorithm for classification in biomarker studies. It works by considering weighted combinations of various logistic regression models; five different weighting schemes are considered in the article. The weights and algorithm are justified using decision theory and risk-bound results. Simulation studies are performed to assess the finite-sample properties of the proposed model-combining method. It is illustrated with an application to data from an immunohistochemical study in prostate cancer.     

An omnibus consistent adaptive percentile modified Wilcoxon rank sum test with applications in gene expression studies

Summary We present an adaptive percentile modified Wilcoxon rank sum test for the two‐sample problem. The test is basically a Wilcoxon rank sum test applied on a fraction of the sample observations, and the fraction is adaptively determined by the sample observations. Most of the theory is developed under a location‐shift model, but we demonstrate that the test is also meaningful for testing against more general alternatives. The test may be particularly useful for the analysis of massive datasets in which quasi‐automatic hypothesis testing is required. We investigate the power characteristics of the new test in a simulation study, and we apply the test to a microarray experiment on colorectal cancer. These empirical studies demonstrate that the new test has good overall power and that it succeeds better in finding differentially expressed genes as compared to other popular tests. We conclude that the new nonparametric test is widely applicable and that its power is comparable to the power of the Baumgartner‐Weiß‐Schindler test.     

Conditional Rejection Probabilities of Student's t‐test and Design Adaptations

For clinical trials with interim analyses conditional rejection probabilities play an important role when stochastic curtailment or design adaptations are performed. The conditional rejection probability gives the conditional probability to finally reject the null hypothesis given the interim data. It is computed either under the null or the alternative hypothesis. We investigate the properties of the conditional rejection probability for the one sided, one sample t‐test and show that it can be non monotone in the interim mean of the data and non monotone in the non‐centrality parameter for the alternative. We give several proposals how to implement design adaptations (that are based on the conditional rejection probability) for the t‐test and give a numerical example. Additionally, the conditional rejection probability given the interim t‐statistic is investigated. It does not depend on the unknown σ and can be used in stochastic curtailment procedures. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Classification of early‐stage non‐small cell lung cancer by weighing gene expression profiles with connectivity information

Pathway‐based feature selection algorithms, which utilize biological information contained in pathways to guide which features/genes should be selected, have evolved quickly and become widespread in the field of bioinformatics. Based on how the pathway information is incorporated, we classify pathway‐based feature selection algorithms into three major categories—penalty, stepwise forward, and weighting. Compared to the first two categories, the weighting methods have been underutilized even though they are usually the simplest ones. In this article, we constructed three different genes’ connectivity information‐based weights for each gene and then conducted feature selection upon the resulting weighted gene expression profiles. Using both simulations and a real‐world application, we have demonstrated that when the data‐driven connectivity information constructed from the data of specific disease under study is considered, the resulting weighted gene expression profiles slightly outperform the original expression profiles. In summary, a big challenge faced by the weighting method is how to estimate pathway knowledge‐based weights more accurately and precisely. Only until the issue is conquered successfully will wide utilization of the weighting methods be impossible.     

Optimal conditional error functions for the control of conditional power

Ethical considerations and the competitive environment of clinical trials usually require that any given trial have sufficient power to detect a treatment advance. If at an interim analysis the available data are used to decide whether the trial is promising enough to be continued, investigators and sponsors often wish to have a high conditional power, which is the probability to reject the null hypothesis given the interim data and the alternative of interest. Under this requirement a design with interim sample size recalculation, which keeps the overall and conditional power at a prespecified value and preserves the overall type I error rate, is a reasonable alternative to a classical group sequential design, in which the conditional power is often too small. In this article two-stage designs with control of overall and conditional power are constructed that minimize the expected sample size, either for a simple point alternative or for a random mixture of alternatives given by a prior density for the efficacy parameter. The presented optimality result applies to trials with and without an interim hypothesis test; in addition, one can account for constraints such as a minimal sample size for the second stage. The optimal designs will be illustrated with an example, and will be compared to the frequently considered method of using the conditional type I error level of a group sequential design.     

Improved Logrank-Type Tests for Survival Data Using Adaptive Weights

Summary .  For testing for treatment effects with time-to-event data, the logrank test is the most popular choice and has some optimality properties under proportional hazards alternatives. It may also be combined with other tests when a range of nonproportional alternatives are entertained. We introduce some versatile tests that use adaptively weighted logrank statistics. The adaptive weights utilize the hazard ratio obtained by fitting the model of Yang and Prentice (2005,  Biometrika   92 , 1–17). Extensive numerical studies have been performed under proportional and nonproportional alternatives, with a wide range of hazard ratios patterns. These studies show that these new tests typically improve the tests they are designed to modify. In particular, the adaptively weighted logrank test maintains optimality at the proportional alternatives, while improving the power over a wide range of nonproportional alternatives. The new tests are illustrated in several real data examples.     

Weighting indels as phylogenetic markers of 18S rDNA sequences in Diptera and Strepsiptera

Opinions split when it comes to the significance and thus the weighting of indel characters as phylogenetic markers. This paper attempts to test the phylogenetic information content of indels and nucleotide substitutions by proposing an a priori weighting system of non-protein-coding genes. Theoretically, the system rests on a weighting scheme which is based on a falsificationist approach to cladistic inference. It provides insertions, deletions and nucleotide substitutions weights according to their specific number of identical classes of potential falsifiers, resulting in the following system: nucleotide substitutions weight = 3, deletions of n nucleotides weight = (2ⁿ–1), and insertions of n nucleotides weight = (5ⁿ–1). This weighting system and the utility of indels as phylogenetic markers are tested against a suitable data set of 18S rDNA sequences of Diptera and Strepsiptera taxa together with other Metazoa species. The indels support the same clades as the nucleotide substitution data, and the application of the weighting system increases the corresponding consistency indices of the differentially weighted character types. As a consequence, applying the weighting system seems to be reasonable, and indels appear to be good phylogenetic markers.     

Extension of Peto's Test by Attribution of Tumor Lethality in the Absence of Cause‐of‐Death Information

A new statistical testing approach is developed for rodent tumorigenicity assays that have a single terminal sacrifice or occasionally interim sacrifices but not cause‐of‐death data. For experiments that lack cause‐of‐death data, statistically imputed numbers of fatal tumors and incidental tumors are used to modify Peto's cause‐of‐death test which is usually implemented using pathologist‐assigned cause‐of‐death information. The numbers of fatal tumors are estimated using a constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method. A new Newton‐based approach under inequality constraints is proposed for finding the global maximum likelihood estimates. In this study, the proposed method is concentrated on data with a single sacrifice experiment without implementing further assumptions. The new testing approach may be more reliable than Peto's test because of the potential for a misclassification of cause‐of‐death by pathologists. A Monte Carlo simulation study for the proposed test is conducted to assess size and power of the test. Asymptotic normality for the statistic of the proposed test is also investigated. The proposed testing approach is illustrated using a real data set.     

Combining taxon‐by‐trait and taxon‐by‐site matrices for analysing trait patterns of macroinvertebrate communities: a rejoinder to Monaghan & Soares ()

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Trendtests with adaptive scoring

The concept of adaptive two‐stage designs is applied to the problem of testing the equality of several normal means against an ordered (monotone) alternative. The likelihood‐ratio‐test proposed by Bartholomew is known to have favorable power properties when testing against a monotonic trend. Tests based on contrasts provide a flexible way to incorporate available information regarding the pattern of the unknown true means through appropriate specification of the scores. The basic idea of the presented concept is the combination of Bartholomew 's test (first stage) with an “adaptive score test” (second stage) which utilizes the information resulting from isotonic regression estimation at the first stage. In a Monte Carlo simulation study the adaptive scoring procedure is compared to the non‐adaptive two‐stage procedure using the Bartholomew test at both stages. We found that adaptive scoring may improve the power of the two stage design, in particular if the sample size at the first stage is considerably larger than at the second stage.     

ESTIMATING PHENOTYPIC SELECTION IN AGE‐STRUCTURED POPULATIONS BY REMOVING TRANSIENT FLUCTUATIONS

An extension of the selection differential in the Robertson–Price equation for the mean phenotype in an age‐structured population is provided. Temporal changes in the mean phenotype caused by transient fluctuations in the age‐distribution and variation in mean phenotype among age classes, which can mistakenly be interpreted as selection, will disappear if reproductive value weighting is applied. Changes in any weighted mean phenotype in an age‐structured population may be decomposed into between‐ and within‐age class components. Using reproductive value weighting the between‐age class component becomes pure noise, generated by previous genetic drift or fluctuating selection. This component, which we call transient quasi‐selection, can therefore be omitted when estimating age‐specific selection on fecundity or viability within age classes. The final response can be computed at the time of selection, but can not be observed until lifetime reproduction is realized unless the heritability is one. The generality of these results is illustrated further by our derivation of the selection differential for the continuous time age‐structured model with general age‐dependent weights. A simple simulation example as well as estimation of selection components in a house sparrow population illustrates the applicability of the theory to analyze selection on the mean phenotype in fluctuating age‐structured populations.