State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics

A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE—shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.     

Spatial patterns in population conflicts

We consider a dynamical model for evolutionary games, and enquire how the introduction of diffusion may lead to the formation of stationary spatially inhomogeneous solutions, that is patterns. For the model equations being used it is already known that if there is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS), then it is stable. Equilibrium solutions which are not ESS's and which are stable with respect to spatially constant perturbations may be unstable for certain choices of the dispersal rates. We prove by a bifurcation technique that under appropriate conditions the instability leads to patterns. Computations using a curve-following technique show that the bifurcations exhibit a rich structure with loops joined by symmetry-breaking branches.     

An impulsively controlled pest management model with n predator species and a common prey

This paper investigates the dynamics of a competitive single-prey n-predators model of integrated pest management, which is subject to periodic and impulsive controls, from the viewpoint of finding sufficient conditions for the extinction of prey and for prey and predator permanence. The per capita death rates of prey due to predation are given in abstract, unspecified forms, which encompass large classes of death rates arising from usual predator functional responses, both prey-dependent and predator-dependent. The stability and permanence conditions are then expressed as balance conditions between the cumulative death rate of prey in a period, due to predation from all predator species and to the use of control, and to the cumulative birth rate of prey in the same amount of time. These results are then specialized for the case of prey-dependent functional responses, their biological significance being also discussed.     

Sex-specific meiotic drive and selection at an imprinted locus

We present a one-locus model that breaks two symmetries of Mendelian genetics. Whereas symmetry of transmission is breached by allowing sex-specific segregation distortion, symmetry of expression is breached by allowing genomic imprinting. Simple conditions for the existence of at least one polymorphic stable equilibrium are provided. In general, population mean fitness is not maximized at polymorphic equilibria. However, mean fitness at a polymorphic equilibrium with segregation distortion may be higher than mean fitness at the corresponding equilibrium with Mendelian segregation if one (or both) of the heterozygote classes has higher fitness than both homozygote classes. In this case, mean fitness is maximized by complete, but opposite, drive in the two sexes. We undertook an extensive numerical analysis of the parameter space, finding, for the first time in this class of models, parameter sets yielding two stable polymorphic equilibria. Multiple equilibria exist both with and without genomic imprinting, although they occurred in a greater proportion of parameter sets with genomic imprinting.     

Impacts of predation on dynamics of age-structured prey: Allee effects and multi-stability

With a series of mathematical models, we explore impacts of predation on a prey population structured into two age classes, juveniles and adults, assuming generalist, age-specific predators. Predation on any age class is either absent, or represented by types II or III functional responses, in various combinations. We look for Allee effects or more generally for multiple stable steady states in the prey population. One of our key findings is the occurrence of a predator pit (low-density ??refuge?? state of prey induced by predation; the chance of escaping predation thus increases both below and above an intermediate prey density) when only one age class is consumed and predators use a type II functional response ??this scenario is known to occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type III functional response and can never occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type II one. In the case where both age classes are consumed by type II generalist predators, an Allee effect occurs frequently, but some parameters give also rise to a predator pit and even three stable equilibria (one extinction equilibrium and two positive ones??Allee effect and predator pit combined). Multiple positive stable equilibria are common if one age class is consumed via a type II functional response and the other via a type III functional response??here, in addition to the behaviours mentioned above one may even observe three stable positive equilibria????double?? predator pit. Some of these results are discussed from the perspective of population management.     

Lévy flights in evolutionary ecology

We are interested in modeling Darwinian evolution resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. The population is modeled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures the probabilistic dynamics over continuous time of birth, mutation, and death, as influenced by each individual's trait values, and interactions between individuals. An offspring usually inherits the trait values of her progenitor, except when a random mutation causes the offspring to take an instantaneous mutation step at birth to new trait values. In the case we are interested in, the probability distribution of mutations has a heavy tail and belongs to the domain of attraction of a stable law and the corresponding diffusion admits jumps. This could be seen as an alternative to Gould and Eldredge's model of evolutionary punctuated equilibria. We investigate the large-population limit with allometric demographies: larger populations made up of smaller individuals which reproduce and die faster, as is typical for micro-organisms. We show that depending on the allometry coefficient the limit behavior of the population process can be approximated by nonlinear Lévy flights of different nature: either deterministic, in the form of non-local fractional reaction-diffusion equations, or stochastic, as nonlinear super-processes with the underlying reaction and a fractional diffusion operator. These approximation results demonstrate the existence of such non-trivial fractional objects; their uniqueness is also proved.     

Continuous-discrete models of the dynamics of an isolated population and of 2 competing species

The paper presents the analysis of various mathematical models for dynamics of isolated population and for competition between two species. It is assumed that mortality is continuous and birth of individuals of new generations takes place in certain fixed moments. Influence of winter upon the population dynamics and conditions of classic discrete model "deduction" of population dynamics (in particular, Moran-Ricker and Hassel's models) are investigated. Dynamic regimes of models under various assumptions about the birth and death rates upon the population states are also examined. Analysis of models of isolated population dynamics with nonoverlapping generations showed the density changes regularly if the birth rate is constant. Moreover, there exists a unique global stable level and population size stabilizes asymptotically at this equilibrium, i.e. cycle and chaotic regimes in various discrete models depend on correlation between individual productivity and population state in previous time. When the correlation is exponential upon mean population size the discrete Hassel model is realized. Modification of basis model, based on the assumption that during winter survival/death changes are constant, showed that population size at global level is stable. Generally, the dependence of population rate upon "winter parameters" has nonlinear character. Nonparametric models of competition between two species does not vary if the individual productivity is constant. In a phase space there are several stable stationary states and population stabilizes at one or other level asymptotically. So, in discrete models of competition between two species oscillation can be explained by dependence of population growth rate on the population size at previous times.     

Equilibria and dynamics of selection at a diallelic autosomal locus in the Nagylaki-Crow continuous model of a monoecious population

Let birth rates and death rates be constant, birth rates positive, fertilities additive, and each birth rate not larger than twice any other birth rate. Global convergence to equilibria is proved for the model in the title. There is at most one polymorphic equilibrium or there are a continuum of equilibria. The phase portraits are given. If there is a polymorphic equilibrium, then the largest negatively invariant set in the state space is a continuous curve connecting the two fixation equilibria. This curve coincides with the Hardy-Weinberg manifold exactly when the death rate is additive. Disregarding extinction, the polymorphic equilibria are the same for the continuous model as for the corresponding discrete model exactly when the death rate is additive.     

Stability analysis for a peri-implant osseointegration model

We investigate stability of the solution of a set of partial differential equations, which is used to model a peri-implant osseointegration process. For certain parameter values, the solution has a ‘wave-like’ profile, which appears in the distribution of osteogenic cells, osteoblasts, growth factor and bone matrix. This ‘wave-like’ profile contradicts experimental observations. In our study we investigate the conditions, under which such profile appears in the solution. Those conditions are determined in terms of model parameters, by means of linear stability analysis, carried out at one of the constant solutions of the simplified system. The stability analysis was carried out for the reduced system of PDE’s, of which we prove, that it is equivalent to the original system of equations, with respect to the stability properties of constant solutions. The conclusions, derived from the linear stability analysis, are extended for the case of large perturbations. If the constant solution is unstable, then the solution of the system never converges to this constant solution. The analytical results are validated with finite element simulations. The simulations show, that stability of the constant solution could determine the behavior of the solution of the whole system, if certain initial conditions are considered.     

On stochastic logistic population growth models with immigration and multiple births

This paper develops a stochastic logistic population growth model with immigration and multiple births. The differential equations for the low-order cumulant functions (i.e., mean, variance, and skewness) of the single birth model are reviewed, and the corresponding equations for the multiple birth model are derived. Accurate approximate solutions for the cumulant functions are obtained using moment closure methods for two families of model parameterizations, one for badger and the other for fox population growth. For both model families, the equilibrium size distribution may be approximated well using the Normal approximation, and even more accurately using the saddlepoint approximation. It is shown that in comparison with the corresponding single birth model, the multiple birth mechanism increases the skewness and the variance of the equilibrium distribution, but slightly reduces its mean. Moreover, the type of density-dependent population control is shown to influence the sign of the skewness and the size of the variance.     

Dynamic reduction with applications to mathematical biology and other areas

In a difference or differential equation one is usually interested in finding solutions having certain properties, either intrinsic properties (e.g. bounded, periodic, almost periodic) or extrinsic properties (e.g. stable, asymptotically stable, globally asymptotically stable). In certain instances it may happen that the dependence of these equations on the state variable is such that one may (1) alter that dependency by replacing part of the state variable by a function from a class having some of the above properties and (2) solve the 'reduced' equation for a solution having the remaining properties and lying in the same class. This then sets up a mapping Τ of the class into itself, thus reducing the original problem to one of finding a fixed point of the mapping. The procedure is applied to obtain a globally asymptotically stable periodic solution for a system of difference equations modeling the interaction of wild and genetically altered mosquitoes in an environment yielding periodic parameters. It is also shown that certain coupled periodic systems of difference equations may be completely decoupled so that the mapping Τ is established by solving a set of scalar equations. Periodic difference equations of extended Ricker type and also rational difference equations with a finite number of delays are also considered by reducing them to equations without delays but with a larger period. Conditions are given guaranteeing the existence and global asymptotic stability of periodic solutions.     

Improved neuronal models for studying neural networks

Previous neuronal models used for the study of neural networks are considered. Equations are developed for a model which includes: 1) a normalized range of firing rates with decreased sensitivity at large excitatory or large inhibitory input levels, 2) a single rate constant for the increase in firing rate following step changes in the input, 3) one or more rate constants, as required to fit experimental data for the adaptation of firing rates to maintained inputs. Computed responses compare well with the types of neuronal responses observed experimentally. Depending on the parameters, overdamped increases and decreases, damped oscillatory or maintained oscillatory changes in firing rate are observed to step changes in the input. The integrodifferential equations describing the neuronal models can be represented by a set of first-order differential equations. Steady-state solutions for these equations can be obtained for constant inputs, as well as the stability of the solutions to small perturbations. The linear frequency response function is derived for sufficiently small time-varying inputs. The linear responses are also compared with the computed solutions for larger non-linear responses.     

Separation and Characterization of Heterodera glycines Acetylcholinesterase Molecular Forms

The composition and biochemical properties of acetylcholinesterases isolated from Heterodera glycines were determined. Heterodera glycines contains three separable AChE molecular forms that can be grouped into two classes corresponding to classes A and C found in some other nematode species. The apparent lack of class B AChE is unusual and may have significant behavioral ramifications. The class C enzyme isolated from H. glycines is similar to that from Meloidogyne arenaria and M. incognita but is somewhat more sensitive to AChE inhibitors such as eserine. Heterodera glycines possesses a larger percentage of its total acetylcholinesterase as class C than other nematodes thus far examined.     

Extended Poisson Process Modelling and Analysis of Count Data

It is shown that any discrete distribution with non-negative support has a representation in terms of an extended Poisson process (or pure birth process). A particular extension of the simple Poisson process is proposed: one that admits a variety of distributions; the equations for such processes may be readily solved numerically. An analytical approximation for the solution is given, leading to approximate mean-variance relationships. The resulting distributions are then applied to analyses of some biological data-sets.     

Studies in the mathematical theory of excitation

The general linear two-factor nerve-excitation theory of the type of Rashevsky and Hill is discussed and normal forms are derived. It is shown that in some cases these equations are not reducible to the Rashevsky form. Most notable is the case in which the solutions are damped periodic functions. It is shown that in this case one or more—in some cases infinitely many—discharges are predictable, following the application of a constant stimulusS. The number of discharges increases withS, but the frequency is a constant, characteristic of the fiber and independent ofS.     

Type II functional response for continuous, physiologically structured models

The goal of this work is to formulate a general Holling-type functional, or behavioral, response for continuous physiologically structured populations, where both the predator and the prey have physiological densities and certain rules apply to their interactions. The physiological variable can be, for example, a development stage, weight, age, or a characteristic length. The model leads to a Fredholm integral equation for the functional response, and, when inserted into population balance laws, it produces a coupled system of partial differential-integral equations for the two species, with a nonlocal integral term that arises from rules of interaction in the functional response. The general model is, typically, analytically intractable, but specialization to a structured prey-unstructured predator model leads to some analytic results that reveal interesting and unexpected dynamics caused by the presence of size-dependent handling times in the functional response. In this case, steady-states are shown to exist over long times, similar to the stable age-structure solutions for the McKendick-von Foerster model with exponential growth rates determined by the Euler-Lotka equation. But, for type II responses, there are early transient oscillations in the number of births that bifurcate in a few generations into either the decaying or growing steady-state. The bifurcation parameter is the initial level of prey. This special case is applied to a problem of the biological control of a structured pest population (e.g., aphids) by a predator (e.g., lady beetles).     

A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio \(R_0\) and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of \(R_0\), that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if \(R_0<1\); and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if \(R_0>1\). Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique, and simulate the long-term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.     

A weakly nonlinear analysis of a model of avascular solid tumour growth

 In this paper we study a mathematical model that describes the growth of an avascular solid tumour. Our analysis concentrates on the stability of steady, radially-symmetric model solutions with respect to perturbations taken from the class of spherical harmonics. Using weakly nonlinear analysis, previous results are extended to show how the amplitudes of the asymmetric modes interact. Attention focuses on a special case for which the model equations simplify. Analysis of the simplified model equations leads to the identification of a two-parameter family of asymmetric steady solutions, the dimensions of whose stable and unstable manifolds depend on the system parameters. The asymmetric steady solutions limit the basin of attraction of the radially-symmetric steady state when it is linearly stable. On the basis of these numerical and analytical results we postulate the existence of fully nonlinear steady solutions which are stable with respect to time-dependent perturbations. Received: 25 October 1998 / Revised version: 20 June 1998