By how much and how quickly does reduction in serum cholesterol concentration lower risk of ischaemic heart disease?

OBJECTIVE--To estimate by how much and how quickly a given reduction in serum cholesterol concentration will reduce the risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN--Data on the incidence of ischaemic heart disease and serum cholesterol concentration were analysed from 10 prospective (cohort) studies, three international studies in different communities, and 28 randomised controlled trials (with mortality data analysed according to allocated treatment to ensure the avoidance of bias). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Decrease in incidence of ischaemic heart disease or mortality for a 0.6 mmol/l (about 10%) decrease in serum cholesterol concentration. RESULTS--For men results from the cohort studies showed that a decrease of serum cholesterol concentration of 0.6 mmol/l (about 10%) was associated with a decrease in incidence of ischaemic heart disease of 54% at age 40 years, 39% at age 50, 27% at 60, 20% at 70, and 19% at 80. The combined estimate from the three international studies (for ages 55-64 years) was 38% (95% confidence interval 33% to 42%), somewhat greater than the cohort study estimate of 27%. The reductions in incidence of ischaemic heart disease in the randomised trials (for ages 55-64 years) were 7% (0 to 14%) in the first two years, 22% (15% to 28%) from 2.1-5 years, and 25% (15% to 35%) after five years, the last estimate being close to the estimate of 27% for the long term reduction from the cohort studies. The data for women are limited but indicate a similar effect. CONCLUSIONS--The results from the cohort studies, international comparisons, and clinical trials are remarkably consistent. The cohort studies, based on half a million men and 18,000 ischaemic heart disease events, estimate that a long term reduction in serum cholesterol concentration of 0.6 mmol/l (10%), which can be achieved by moderate dietary change, lowers the risk of ischaemic heart disease by 50% at age 40, falling to 20% at age 70. The randomised trials, based on 45,000 men and 4000 ischaemic heart disease events show that the full effect of the reduction in risk is achieved by five years.     

Short-Term Heart Rate Variability—Influence of Gender and Age in Healthy Subjects

In the recent years, short-term heart rate variability (HRV) describing complex variations of beat-to-beat interval series that are mainly controlled by the autonomic nervous system (ANS) has been increasingly analyzed to assess the ANS activity in different diseases and under various conditions. In contrast to long-term HRV analysis, short-term investigations (<30 min) provide a test result almost immediately. Thus, short-term HRV analysis is suitable for ambulatory care, patient monitoring and all those applications where the result is urgently needed. In a previous study, we could show significant variations of 5-min HRV indices according to age in almost all domains (linear and nonlinear) in 1906 healthy subjects from the KORA S4 cohort. Based on the same group of subjects, general gender-related influences on HRV indices are to be determined in this study. Short-term 5-min HRV indices from linear time and frequency domain and from nonlinear methods (compression entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis, traditional and segmented Poincaré plot analysis, irreversibility analysis, symbolic dynamics, correlation and mutual information analysis) were determined from 782 females and 1124 males. First, we examined the gender differences in two age clusters (25–49 years and 50–74 years). Secondly, we investigated the gender-specific development of HRV indices in five age decade categories, namely for ages 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64 and 65–74 years. In this study, significant modifications of the indices according to gender could be obtained, especially in the frequency domain and correlation analyses. Furthermore, there were significant modifications according to age in nearly all of the domains. The gender differences disappeared within the last two age decades and the age dependencies disappeared in the last decade. To summarize gender and age influences need to be considered when performing HRV studies even if these influences only partly differ.     

Alcohol consumption,serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration,and risk of ischaemic heart disease: six year follow up in the Copenhagen male study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interplay between use of alcohol, concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with controlling for several relevant confounders, including concentrations of other lipid fractions. SETTING: Copenhagen male study, Denmark. SUBJECTS: 2826 men aged 53-74 years without overt ischaemic heart disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischaemic heart disease during a six year follow up period. RESULTS: 172 men (6.1%) had a first ischaemic heart disease event. There was an overall inverse association between alcohol intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The association was highly dependent on concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. In men with a high concentration (> or = 5.25 mmol/l) cumulative incidence rates of ischaemic heart disease were 16.4% for abstainers, 8.7% for those who drank 1-21 beverages a week, and 4.4% for those who drank 22 or more beverages a week. With abstainers as reference and after adjustment for confounders, corresponding relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0; P<0.05) and 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P<0.01). In men with a concentration <3.63 mmol/l use of alcohol was not associated with risk. The attributable risk (95% confidence interval) of ischaemic heart disease among men with concentrations > or = 3.63 mmol/l who abstained from drinking alcohol was 43% (10% to 64%). CONCLUSIONS: In middle aged and elderly men the inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease is highly dependent on the concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. These results support the suggestion that use of alcohol may in part explain the French paradox.     

Rising Levels of HIV Infection in Older Adults in Eastern Zimbabwe

BackgroundWith the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment across Africa, many people are living longer with HIV. Understanding the ageing of the HIV cohort and sexual behaviour among older adults are important for appropriately responding to the changing demographics of people living with HIV.MethodsWe used data from a large population-based open cohort in eastern Zimbabwe to examine HIV prevalence trends and incidence among those aged 45 years and older. Five survey rounds have been completed between 1998 and 2011. Incidence was analysed using midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV test.ResultsAcross the survey rounds, 13,071 individuals were followed for 57,676 person years. While HIV prevalence among people aged 15–44 has fallen across the five rounds, HIV prevalence among those aged 45–54 has increased since the 2006–08 survey round. In the 2009–11 round, HIV prevalence among men aged 45–54 was 23.4% compared to 11.0% among those aged 15–44. HIV positive people aged 45–54 now represent more than 20% of all those living with HIV in Manicaland. Among those aged 45 years and older, there were 85 seroconversions in 11,999 person years for an HIV incidence of 0.708 per 100 person years. Analysis of cohort data and assessment of behavioural risk factors for HIV infection among older people shows significantly lower levels of condom use among older adults and a number of seroconversions past the age of 50.ConclusionsThe cohort of people living with HIV is ageing in Zimbabwe and the behaviour of older adults puts them at risk of HIV infection. Older adults must be included in both HIV prevention and treatment programs.     

The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes: A Pooled Analysis

Background

The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not available.

Methods

We reviewed large cohort pooling projects, evaluating effects of baseline or usual exposure to metabolic risks on ischemic heart disease (IHD), hypertensive heart disease (HHD), stroke, diabetes, and, as relevant selected other CVDs, after adjusting for important confounders. We pooled all data to estimate relative risks (RRs) for each risk factor and examined effect modification by age or other factors, using random effects models.

Results

Across all risk factors, an average of 123 cohorts provided data on 1.4 million individuals and 52,000 CVD events. Each metabolic risk factor was robustly related to CVD. At the baseline age of 55–64 years, the RR for 10 mmHg higher SBP was largest for HHD (2.16; 95% CI 2.09–2.24), followed by effects on both stroke subtypes (1.66; 1.39–1.98 for hemorrhagic stroke and 1.63; 1.57–1.69 for ischemic stroke). In the same age group, RRs for 1 mmol/L higher TC were 1.44 (1.29–1.61) for IHD and 1.20 (1.15–1.25) for ischemic stroke. The RRs for 5 kg/m² higher BMI for ages 55–64 ranged from 2.32 (2.04–2.63) for diabetes, to 1.44 (1.40–1.48) for IHD. For 1 mmol/L higher FPG, RRs in this age group were 1.18 (1.08–1.29) for IHD and 1.14 (1.01–1.29) for total stroke. For all risk factors, proportional effects declined with age, were generally consistent by sex, and differed by region in only a few age groups for certain risk factor-disease pairs.

Conclusion

Our results provide robust, comparable and precise estimates of the effects of major metabolic risk factors on CVD and diabetes by age group.     

Right ventricular function in dilated cardiomyopathy and ischemic heart disease: assessment with non-invasive imaging

Background

Dilated cardiomyopathy and ischaemic heart disease can both lead to right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Direct comparisons of the two entities regarding RV size and function using state-of-the-art imaging techniques have not yet been performed. We aimed to determine RV function and volume in dilated cardiomyopathy and ischaemic heart disease in relation to left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and systolic pulmonary artery pressure.

Methods and results

A well-characterised group (cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, coronary angiography and endomyocardial biopsy) of 46 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy was compared with LV ejection fraction (EF)-matched patients (n = 23) with ischaemic heart disease. Volumes and EF were determined with magnetic resonance imaging, diastolic LV function and pulmonary artery pressure with echocardiography.After multivariable linear regression, four factors independently influenced RVEF (R² = 0.51, p < 0.001): LVEF (r = 0.54, p < 0.001), ratio of peak early and peak atrial transmitral Doppler flow velocity as measure of LV filling pressure (r = − 0.52, p < 0.001) and tricuspid regurgitation flow velocity as measure of pulmonary artery pressure (r = − 0.38, p = 0.001). RVEF was significantly worse in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy compared with ischaemic heart disease: median 48 % (interquartile range (IQR) 37–55 %) versus 56 % (IQR 48–63 %), p < 0.05.

Conclusions

In patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and ischaemic heart disease, RV function is determined by LV systolic and diastolic function, the underlying cause of LV dysfunction, and pulmonary artery pressure. It was demonstrated that RV function is more impaired in dilated cardiomyopathy.     

Decline in ischaemic heart disease in Iceland and change in risk factor levels.

OBJECTIVE--To monitor trends in mortality and morbidity due to ischaemic heart disease and compare these with observed levels of risk factors from population surveys. DESIGN--Analysis of trends in death rates from ischaemic heart disease in Iceland compared with expected rates computed from population surveys. Risk factor levels together with beta factors obtained from Cox''s regression analysis were used to compute expected death rates. Trends in morbidity due to acute myocardial infarction were assessed and secular trends in dietary consumption compared with trends in cholesterol concentrations. SETTING--Reykjavik, Iceland (total population 250,000; over half the population live in Reykjavik). SUBJECTS--12,814 randomly selected residents in the Reykjavik area aged 45-64 (6623 men, 6191 women; 72% and 80% of those invited). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age adjusted rates of myocardial infarction and deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Expected risk from risk factor levels (smoking, total serum cholesterol concentration, systolic blood pressure) at each unique survey visit. RESULTS--Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has decreased by 17-18% since 1970. During 1981-6 the myocardial infarction attack rate in men under 75 decreased by 23%. A decrease occurred in the level of all three major risk factors after 1968. The fall in the serum cholesterol concentration coincided with a reduction in consumption of dairy fat and margarine. The calculated reduction in risk for the age group 45-64 was about 35%, which was closely similar to the observed decrease in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease in that age group. CONCLUSION--The reduction in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was substantially due to a decreased incidence of myocardial infarction and could be attributed largely to the reduction in risk factors.     

Hip Fracture Incidence in Relation to Age,Menopausal Status,and Age at Menopause: Prospective Analysis

Background

Bone mineral density is known to decrease rapidly after the menopause. There is limited evidence about the separate contributions of a woman''s age, menopausal status and age at menopause to the incidence of hip fracture.

Methods and Findings

Over one million middle-aged women joined the UK Million Women Study in 1996–2001 providing information on their menopausal status, age at menopause, and other factors, which was updated, where possible, 3 y later. All women were registered with the UK National Health Service (NHS) and were routinely linked to information on cause-specific admissions to NHS hospitals. 561,609 women who had never used hormone replacement therapy and who provided complete information on menopausal variables (at baseline 25% were pre/perimenopausal and 75% postmenopausal) were followed up for a total of 3.4 million woman-years (an average 6.2 y per woman). During follow-up 1,676 (0.3%) were admitted to hospital with a first incident hip fracture. Among women aged 50–54 y the relative risk (RR) of hip fracture risk was significantly higher in postmenopausal than premenopausal women (adjusted RR 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22–4.04; p = 0.009); there were too few premenopausal women aged 55 y and over for valid comparisons. Among postmenopausal women, hip fracture incidence increased steeply with age (p<0.001), with rates being about seven times higher at age 70–74 y than at 50–54 y (incidence rates of 0.82 versus 0.11 per 100 women over 5 y). Among postmenopausal women of a given age there was no significant difference in hip fracture incidence between women whose menopause was due to bilateral oophorectomy compared to a natural menopause (adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.94–1.55; p = 0.15), and age at menopause had little, if any, effect on hip fracture incidence.

Conclusions

At around the time of the menopause, hip fracture incidence is about twice as high in postmenopausal than in premenopausal women, but this effect is short lived. Among postmenopausal women, age is by far the main determinant of hip fracture incidence and, for women of a given age, their age at menopause has, at most, a weak additional effect. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost effectiveness of lowering cholesterol concentration with statins in patients with and without pre-existing coronary heart disease: life table method applied to health authority population.

OBJECTIVES--To estimate the cost effectiveness of statins in lowering serum cholesterol concentration in people at varying risk of fatal cardiovascular disease and to explore the implications of changing the criteria for intervention on cost and cost effectiveness for a purchasing authority. DESIGN--A life table method was used to model the effect of treatment with a statin on survival over 10 years in men and women aged 45-64. The costs of intervention were estimated from the direct costs of treatment, offset by savings associated with a reduction in coronary angiographies, non-fatal myocardial infarctions, and revascularisation procedures. The robustness of the model to various assumptions was tested in a sensitivity analysis. SETTING--Population of a typical district health authority. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Cost per life year saved. RESULTS--The average cost effectiveness of treating men aged 45-64 with no history of coronary heart disease and a cholesterol concentration > 6.5 mmol/l for 10 years with a statin was 136,000 pounds per life year saved. The average cost effectiveness for patients with pre-existing coronary heart disease and a cholesterol concentration > 5.4 mmol/l was 32,000 pounds. These averages hide enormous differences in cost effectiveness between groups at different risk, ranging from 6000 pounds per life year in men aged 55-64 who have had a myocardial infarction and whose cholesterol concentration is above 7.2 mmol/l to 361,000 pounds per life year saved in women aged 45-54 with angina and a cholesterol concentration of 5.5-6.0 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--Lowering serum cholesterol concentration in patients with and without preexisting coronary heart disease is effective and safe, but treatment for all those in whom treatment is likely to be effective is not sustainable within current NHS resources. Data on cost effectiveness data should be taken into account when assessing who should be eligible for treatment.     

Differential Impact of Statin on New-Onset Diabetes in Different Age Groups: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Women from an Asian Country

Background

Statins reduce cardiovascular risks but increase the risk of new-onset diabetes (NOD). The aim of this study is to determine what effect, if any, statins have on the risk of NOD events in a population-based case-control study. An evaluation of the relationship between age and statin-exposure on NOD risks was further examined in a female Asian population.

Method

In a nationwide case-controlled study, the authors assessed 1065 female NOD patients and 10650 controls with matching ages, genders and physician visit dates. The impact of statin-exposure on NOD was examined through multiple logistic regression models. Subgroup analysis for exploring the risk of NOD and statin-exposure in different age groups was performed.

Results

Statin-exposure was statistically significantly associated with increased new-onset diabetes risks using multivariate analysis. Interaction effect between age and statin-exposure on NOD risk was noted. For atorvastatin, the risk of cDDDs>60 was highest among the 55–64 year-olds (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 8.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.57–24.90). For rosuvastatin, the risk of cDDDs>60 was highest among the 40–54 year-olds (adjusted OR, 14.8; 95% CI, 2.27–96.15). For simvastatin, the risk of cDDDs>60 was highest among the 55–64 year-olds (adjusted OR, 15.8; 95% CI, 5.77–43.26). For pravastatin, the risk of cDDDs>60 was highest among the 55–64 year-olds (adjusted OR, 14.0; 95% CI, 1.56–125.18).

Conclusions

This population-based study found that statin use is associated with an increased risk of NOD in women. The risk of statin-related NOD was more evident for women aged 40–64 years compared to women aged 65 or more, and was cumulative-dose dependent. The use of statins should always be determined by weighing the clinical benefits and potential risks for NOD, and the patients should be continuously monitored for adverse effects.     

Cervical Screening at Age 50–64 Years and the Risk of Cervical Cancer at Age 65 Years and Older: Population-Based Case Control Study

Background

There is little consensus, and minimal evidence, regarding the age at which to stop cervical screening. We studied the association between screening at age 50–64 y and cervical cancer at age 65–83 y.

Methods and Findings

Cases were women (n = 1,341) diagnosed with cervical cancer at age 65–83 y between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2012 in England and Wales; age-matched controls (n = 2,646) were randomly selected from population registers. Screening details from 1988 onwards were extracted from national databases. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) for different screening histories and subsequent cervical cancer. Women with adequate negative screening at age 65 y (288 cases, 1,395 controls) were at lowest risk of cervical cancer (20-y risk: 8 cancers per 10,000 women) compared with those (532 cases, 429 controls) not screened at age 50–64 y (20-y risk: 49 cancers per 10,000 women, with OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.13–0.19). ORs depended on the age mix of women because of the weakening association with time since last screen: OR = 0.11, 95% CI 0.08–0.14 at 2.5 to 7.5 y since last screen; OR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.20–0.36 at 12.5 to 17.5 y since last screen. Screening at least every 5.5 y between the ages 50 and 64 y was associated with a 75% lower risk of cervical cancer between the ages 65 and 79 y (OR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.21–0.30), and the attributable risk was such that in the absence of screening, cervical cancer rates in women aged 65+ would have been 2.4 (95% CI 2.1–2.7) times higher. In women aged 80–83 y the association was weaker (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.28–0.83) than in those aged 65–69 y (OR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.09–0.17). This study was limited by an absence of data on confounding factors; additionally, findings based on cytology may not generalise to human papillomavirus testing.

Conclusions

Women with adequate negative screening at age 50–64 y had one-sixth of the risk of cervical cancer at age 65–83 y compared with women who were not screened. Stopping screening between ages 60 and 69 y in women with adequate negative screening seems sensible, but further screening may be justifiable as life expectancy increases. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Erectile Dysfunction and Risk of End Stage Renal Disease Requiring Dialysis: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Background

Previous studies have suggested that erectile dysfunction (ED) is an independent risk factor for macrovascular disease. Very few studies have evaluated the relationship between ED and risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis.

Methods

A random sample of 1,000,000 individuals from Taiwan''s National Health Insurance database was collected. We selected the control group by matching the subjects and controls by age, diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, hyperlipidemia, area of residence, monthly income and index date. We identified 3985 patients with newly-diagnosed ED between 2000 and 2008 and compared them with a matched cohort of 23910 patients without ED. All patients were tracked from the index date to identify which patients subsequently developed a need for dialysis.

Results

The incidence rates of dialysis in the ED cohort and comparison groups were 10.85 and 9.06 per 10000 person-years, respectively. Stratified by age, the incidence rate ratio for dialysis was greater in ED patients aged <50 years (3.16, 95% CI: 1.62–6.19, p = 0.0008) but not in aged 50–64 (0.94, 95% CI: 0.52–1.69, p = 0.8397) and those aged ≧65 (0.69, 95% CI: 0.32–1.52, p = 0.3594). After adjustment for patient characteristics and medial comorbidities, the adjusted HR for dialysis remained greater in ED patients aged <50 years (adjusted HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.05–4.11, p<0.05). The log-rank test revealed that ED patients <50-years-old had significantly higher cumulative incidence rates of dialysis than those without (p = 0.0004).

Conclusion

Patients with ED, especially younger patients, are at an increased risk for ESRD requiring dialysis later in life.     

The maximal exercise ECG in asymptomatic men

Lead MC5 bipolar exercise ECG was obtained in 510 asymptomatic males, aged 40 to 65, utilizing the bicycle ergometer, with maximal stress in 71% of the subjects. “Ischemic changes” occurred in 61 subjects, the frequency increasing from 4% at age 40 to 45, to 20% at age 50 to 55, to 37% at age 61 to 65. Subjects having an ischemic type ECG change on exercise had more frequent minor resting ECG changes, more resting hypertension, and a greater incidence of high cholesterol values than subjects with a normal ECG response to exercise, but there was no difference in the incidence of obesity, low fitness, or high systolic blood pressure after exercise. Current evidence suggests that asymptomatic male subjects with an abnormal exercise ECG develop clinical coronary heart disease from 2.5 to over 30 times more frequently than those with a normal exercise ECG.     

How Has the Age-Related Process of Overweight or Obesity Development Changed over Time? Co-ordinated Analyses of Individual Participant Data from Five United Kingdom Birth Cohorts

Background

There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood.

Methods and Findings

The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2–64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7–50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10–42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7–18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3–11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25–29.9 kg/m²) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2–3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219–0.240] in MCS males; 0.071 [0.065–0.078] in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come.     

Association of Sick Sinus Syndrome with Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Cardiovascular Health Study

Background

Sick sinus syndrome (SSS) is a common indication for pacemaker implantation. Limited information exists on the association of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

Methods

We studied 19,893 men and women age 45 and older in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), two community-based cohorts, who were without a pacemaker or atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Incident SSS cases were validated by review of medical charts. Incident CVD and mortality were ascertained using standardized protocols. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the association of incident SSS with selected outcomes.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 17 years, 213 incident SSS events were identified and validated (incidence, 0.6 events per 1,000 person-years). After adjustment for confounders, SSS incidence was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1.70), coronary heart disease (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.11–2.66), heart failure (HR 2.87, 95%CI 2.17–3.80), stroke (HR 1.56, 95%CI 0.99–2.46), AF (HR 5.75, 95%CI 4.43–7.46), and pacemaker implantation (HR 53.7, 95%CI 42.9–67.2). After additional adjustment for other incident CVD during follow-up, SSS was no longer associated with increased mortality, coronary heart disease, or stroke, but remained associated with higher risk of heart failure (HR 2.00, 95%CI 1.51–2.66), AF (HR 4.25, 95%CI 3.28–5.51), and pacemaker implantation (HR 25.2, 95%CI 19.8–32.1).

Conclusion

Individuals who develop SSS are at increased risk of death and CVD. The mechanisms underlying these associations warrant further investigation.     

Sickness Absence Due to Specific Mental Diagnoses and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Cohort Study of 4.9 Million Inhabitants of Sweden

Background

Despite the magnitude and increase of sickness absence due to mental diagnoses, little is known regarding long-term health outcomes. The aim of this nationwide population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate the association between sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Methods

A cohort of all 4 857 943 individuals living in Sweden on 31.12.2004 (aged 16–64 years, not sickness absent, or on retirement or disability pension), was followed from 01.01.2005 through 31.12.2008 for all-cause and cause-specific mortality (suicide, cancer, circulatory disease) through linkage of individual register data. Individuals with at least one new sick-leave spell with a mental diagnosis in 2005 were compared to individuals with no sickness absence. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, country of birth, family situation, area of residence, and pre-existing morbidity (diagnosis-specific hospital inpatient (2000–2005) and outpatient (2001–2005) care).

Results

In the multivariate analyses, mental sickness absence in 2005 was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality: HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.47–1.86 in women and in men: 1.73, 1.57–1.91; for suicide, cancer (both smoking and non-smoking related) as well as mortality due to circulatory disease only in men. Estimates for cause-specific mortality ranged from 1.48 to 3.37. Associations with all-cause mortality were found for all mental sickness absence diagnostic groups studied.

Conclusions

Knowledge about the prognosis of patients sickness absent with specific mental diagnoses is of crucial clinical importance in health care. Sickness absence due to specific mental diagnoses may here be used as a risk indictor for subsequent mortality.     

Mortality amongst Patients with Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness,South Africa, 2009-2013

Introduction

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.

Methods

Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009–2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.

Results

We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45–64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2–34.3) compared to 1–4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1–7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2–7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1–31.3) and adults aged 45–64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4–12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0–27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals.

Conclusion

Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.     

Helicobacter pylori infection and mortality from ischaemic heart disease: negative result from a large,prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there is an independent association between Helicobacter pylori infection of the stomach and ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with measurement of IgG antibody titres specific to H pylori on stored serum samples from 648 men who died from ischaemic heart disease and 1296 age matched controls who did not (nested case-control design). SUBJECTS: 21,520 professional men aged 35-64 who attended the British United Provident Association (BUPA) medical centre in London between 1975 and 1982 for routine medical examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Death from ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS: The odds of death from ischaemic heart disease in men with H pylori infection relative to that in men without infection was 1.06 (95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.31). In a separate group of 206 people attending the centre, plasma fibrinogen was virtually the same in those who were positive for H pylori (2.62 g/l) and those who were negative (2.64 g/l). CONCLUSIONS: A study that by its size and design minimised both random error and socioeconomic bias found no relation between H pylori infection and ischaemic heart disease. The validity of the study was shown by its confirmation of the recognised association between H pylori infection and stomach cancer (odds ratio 4.0 (1.9 to 8.2); P < 0.001). Eradication of H pylori infection may greatly reduce the incidence of stomach cancer, one of the most common causes of death from cancer worldwide, but it cannot be expected to have any effect in preventing ischaemic heart disease.     

Trends in Incidence of Stroke and Transition of Stroke Subtypes in Rural Tianjin China: A Population-Based Study from 1992 to 2012

Objectives

The incidence of ischemic stroke has increased and that of hemorrhagic stroke has decreased in urban China; however, the trends in rural areas are unknown. We aimed to explore the secular trends in incidence and transition of stroke subtypes among rural Chinese.

Methods

This was a population-based stroke surveillance through the Tianjin Brain Study. A total of 14,538 residents in a township of Ji County in Tianjin, China participated in the study since 1985. We investigated the age-standardized stroke incidence (sex-specific, type-specific, and age-specific), the annual proportion of change in the incidence of stroke, and the proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage in the periods 1992–1998, 1999–2005, and 2006–2012, because the neuroimaging technique was available since 1992 in this area.

Results

The age-standardized incidence per 100,000 person-years increased significantly for both intracerebral hemorrhage (37.8 in 1992–1998, 46.5 in 1999–2005, and 76.5 in 2006–2012) and ischemic stroke (83.9 in 1992–1998, 135.3 in 1999–2005, and 238.0 in 2006–2012). The age-standardized incidence of first-ever stroke increased annually by 4.9% for intracerebral hemorrhage and by 7.3% for ischemic stroke. The greatest increase was observed in men aged 45–64 years for both stroke types (P < 0.001). The proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage was stable overall, increased among men aged 45–64 years, and decreased among men aged ≥65 years. The average age of intracerebral hemorrhage in men reduced by 7.5 years from 1992 to 2012.

Conclusion

The age-standardized incidence of main stroke subtypes increased significantly in rural China over the past 21 years; the overall proportion of intracerebral hemorrhage was stable, but the incidence increased significantly among middle-aged men. These findings imply that it is crucial to control stroke risk factors in middle-aged men for stroke prevention in future decades.     

Ten-Year Trends in Coronary Calcification in Individuals without Clinical Cardiovascular Disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known.

Methods and Findings

To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT) and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55–84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000–02, 50.4% in 2003–04, 60.0% is 2005–06, 57.4% in 2007–08, and 61.3% in 2010–12 (p for trend <0.001). The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55–64 [prevalence ratio for 2010–12 vs. 2000–02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39); p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence.

Conclusions

There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups.