Pediatric Post-Discharge Mortality in Resource Poor Countries: A Systematic Review

Objectives

Mortality following hospital discharge is an important and under-recognized contributor to overall child mortality in developing countries. The primary objective of this systematic review was to identify all studies reporting post-discharge mortality in children, estimate likelihood of death, and determine the most important risk factors for death.

Search Strategy

MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched using MeSH terms and keywords from the inception date to October, 2012. Key word searches using Google Scholar™ and hand searching of references of retrieved articles was also performed. Studies from developing countries reporting mortality following hospital discharge among a pediatric population were considered for inclusion.

Results

Thirteen studies that reported mortality rates following discharge were identified. Studies varied significantly according to design, underlying characteristics of study population and duration of follow-up. Mortality rates following discharge varied significantly between studies (1%–18%). When reported, post-discharge mortality rates often exceeded in-hospital mortality rates. The most important baseline variables associated with post-discharge mortality were young age, malnutrition, multiple previous hospitalizations, HIV infection and pneumonia. Most post-discharge deaths occurred early during the post-discharge period. Follow-up care was examined in only one study examining malaria prophylaxis in children discharged following an admission secondary to malaria, which showed no significant benefit on post-discharge mortality.

Conclusions

The months following hospital discharge carry significant risk for morbidity and mortality. While several characteristics are strongly associated with post-discharge mortality, no validated tools are available to aid health workers or policy makers in the systematic identification of children at high risk of post-discharge mortality. Future research must focus on both the creation of tools to aid in defining groups of children most likely to benefit from post-discharge interventions, and formal assessment of the effectiveness of such interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality in the first few months following hospital discharge.     

Predictors and Outcome of Hypoxemia in Severely Malnourished Children under Five with Pneumonia: A Case Control Design

Background

There is lack of information in the medical literature on predictors of hypoxemia in severely malnourished children with pneumonia, although hypoxemia is common and is often associated with fatal outcome in this population. We explored the predictors of hypoxemia in under-five children who were hospitalized for the management of pneumonia and severe acute malnutrition (SAM).

Methods

In this unmatched case-control design, SAM children of both sexes, aged 0–59 months, admitted to the Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) with radiological pneumonia and hypoxemia during April 2011 to April 2012 were studied. SAM children with pneumonia and hypoxemia (SpO₂<90%) constituted the cases (n = 37), and randomly selected SAM children with pneumonia but without hypoxemia constituted controls (n = 111).

Results

The case-fatality was significantly higher among the cases than the controls (30% vs. 4%; p<0.001). In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders such as nasal flaring, head nodding, inability to drink, and crackles in lungs, fast breathing (95% CI = 1.09–13.55), lower chest wall in-drawing (95% CI = 2.48–43.41), and convulsion at admission (95% CI = 3.14–234.01) were identified as independent predictors of hypoxemia in this population. The sensitivity of fast breathing, lower chest wall in-drawing and convulsion at admission and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) to predict hypoxemia were 84 (67–93)%, 89 (74–96)%, and 19 (9–36)% respectively, and their specificity were 53 (43–63)%, 60 (51–69)% and 98 (93–100)% respectively.

Conclusion and Significance

Fast breathing and lower chest wall in-drawing were the best predictors of hypoxemia in SAM children with pneumonia. There thus, in resources poor settings where pulse oximetry is not available, identification of these simple clinical predictors of hypoxemia in such children could be reliably used for early O₂ supplementation in addition to other appropriate management to reduce morbidity and deaths.     

A High Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Associated Pneumonia in Children Less than Two Years of Age in a South East Asian Refugee Population

Background

Pneumonia is a major cause of childhood mortality and morbidity approximately 1.6 million deaths and 150 million episodes occur annually in children <5 years. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) may be responsible for up to 25% of cases and 12% of deaths making it an important potential vaccine target, although data from South East Asia is scarce.

Methods

We followed a birth cohort of Burmese refugee children, born over a one year period, for two years. Pneumonia episodes were diagnosed using WHO criteria. A chest radiograph, nasopharyngeal aspirate and non-specific markers of infection were taken during each episode.

Results

The incidence of RSV-associated pneumonia was 0.24 (95% CI 0.22–0.26) episodes per child year. All children with pneumonia received antibiotic treatment, following WHO guidelines. The highest incidence was in the 2–12 month age group. The commonest diagnosis in a child with RSV-associated pneumonia was non-severe pneumonia (239/362∶66.0%), however the incidence of RSV-associated severe or very severe pneumonia was 0.08 (95% CI 0.01–0.10) episodes per child year. Birth in the wet season increased the risk of severe disease in children who had their first episode of RSV-associated pneumonia aged 2–11 months (OR 28.7, 95% CI 6.6–125.0, p<0.001). RSV episodes were highly seasonal being responsible for 80.0% of all the pneumonia episodes occurring each October and November over the study period.

Conclusions

There was a high incidence of RSV associated pneumonia in this refugee population. Interventions to prevent RSV infection have the potential to reduce the incidence of clinically diagnosed pneumonia and hence unnecessary antibiotic usage in this population.     

Prevalence and Characteristics Associated with Malnutrition at Hospitalization among Patients with Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in Brazil

Background

Brazil’s National STD/AIDS Program is considered a model of success worldwide. However, AIDS-associated malnutrition continues in subgroups of Brazilian patients despite access to free highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We aimed to identify the prevalence of malnutrition and associated factors among patients hospitalized with AIDS.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional nutritional assessment among 127 adults hospitalized with AIDS in Brazil’s third largest city. Using anthropometric measurements, we determined the prevalence of malnutrition (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2) at hospitalization. Prevalence ratios of malnutrition by demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical conditions were estimated using log-binomial regression.

Results

One-third of participants were first informed of their HIV disease during the current hospitalization and recent treatment interruption was common (71%) among those on HAART. Forty-three percent were malnourished and 35% had severe weight loss at admission. Patient characteristics independently associated with malnutrition were older age (2% increased prevalence for each year; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0–4%) and very low daily per capita household income. Living on <USD 2.00, USD 2.00–4.99 or USD 5.00–9.99 increased the prevalence of malnutrition by 2.01 (95% CI 1.06–3.81), 1.75 (95% CI 0.92–3.35) and 1.42 (95% CI 0.76–2.65) times, respectively, compared to ≥USD 10.00 per day. Chronic diarrhea was marginally associated with malnutrition (RR 1.42; 95% CI 0.99–2.04). Overall, 16% of the patients died during hospitalization. We observed a trend toward higher in-hospital case fatality among malnourished patients (22% vs. 12% for patients with and without malnutrition, respectively; chi square P = 0.14).

Conclusions

Unacceptably high rates of malnutrition persist in Brazilians hospitalized with AIDS and our results reinforce the importance of nutritional evaluations in these patients. Improved early testing and treatment adherence strategies may continue to help reduce AIDS-related morbidity and mortality in Brazil, yet novel interventions to disrupt the cycle of poverty, HIV, and malnutrition are also urgently needed.     

A Prospective Study of the Prevalence of Tuberculosis and Bacteraemia in Bangladeshi Children with Severe Malnutrition and Pneumonia Including an Evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF Assay

Background

Severe malnutrition is a risk factor for pneumonia due to a wide range of pathogens but aetiological data are limited and the role of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is uncertain.

Methods

We prospectively investigated severely malnourished young children (<5 years) with radiological pneumonia admitted over a 15-month period. Investigations included blood culture, sputa for microscopy and mycobacterial culture. Xpert MTB/RIF assay was introduced during the study. Study children were followed for 12 weeks following their discharge from the hospital.

Results

405 eligible children were enrolled, with a median age of 10 months. Bacterial pathogens were isolated from blood culture in 18 (4.4%) children, of which 72% were Gram negatives. Tuberculosis was confirmed microbiologically in 7% (27/396) of children that provided sputum - 10 by culture, 21 by Xpert MTB/RIF assay, and 4 by both tests. The diagnostic yield from induced sputum was 6% compared to 3.5% from gastric aspirate. Sixty (16%) additional children had tuberculosis diagnosed clinically that was not microbiologically confirmed. Most confirmed tuberculosis cases did not have a positive contact history or positive tuberculin test. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF assay compared to culture was 67% (95% CI: 24–94) and 92% (95% CI: 87–95) respectively. Overall case-fatality rate was 17% and half of the deaths occurred in home following discharge from the hospital.

Conclusion and Significance

TB was common in severely malnourished Bangladeshi children with pneumonia. X-pert MTB/RIF assay provided higher case detection rate compared to sputum microscopy and culture. The high mortality among the study children underscores the need for further research aimed at improved case detection and management for better outcomes.     

A Large-Scale Distribution of Milk-Based Fortified Spreads: Evidence for a New Approach in Regions with High Burden of Acute Malnutrition

Background

There are 146 million underweight children in the developing world, which contribute to up to half of the world''s child deaths. In high burden regions for malnutrition, the treatment of individual children is limited by available resources. Here, we evaluate a large-scale distribution of a nutritional supplement on the prevention of wasting.

Methods and Findings

A new ready-to-use food (RUF) was developed as a diet supplement for children under three. The intervention consisted of six monthly distributions of RUF during the 2007 hunger gap in a district of Maradi region, Niger, for approximately 60,000 children (length: 60–85 cm). At each distribution, all children over 65 cm had their Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) recorded. Admission trends for severe wasting (WFH<70% NCHS) in Maradi, 2002–2005 show an increase every year during the hunger gap. In contrast, in 2007, throughout the period of the distribution, the incidence of severe acute malnutrition (MUAC<110 mm) remained at extremely low levels. Comparison of year-over-year admissions to the therapeutic feeding program shows that the 2007 blanket distribution had essentially the same flattening effect on the seasonal rise in admissions as the 2006 individualized treatment of almost 60,000 children moderately wasted.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate the potential for distribution of fortified spreads to reduce the incidence of severe wasting in large population of children 6–36 months of age. Although further information is needed on the cost-effectiveness of such distributions, these results highlight the importance of re-evaluating current nutritional strategies and international recommendations for high burden areas of childhood malnutrition.     

Optimal Screening of Children with Acute Malnutrition Requires a Change in Current WHO Guidelines as MUAC and WHZ Identify Different Patient Groups

Background

Timely treatment of acute malnutrition in children <5 years of age could prevent >500,000 deaths annually. Screening at community level is essential to identify children with malnutrition. Current WHO guidelines for community screening for malnutrition recommend a Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) of <115 mm to identify severe acute malnutrition (SAM). However, it is currently unclear how MUAC relates to the other indicator used to define acute malnutrition: weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ).

Methods

Secondary data from >11,000 Cambodian children, obtained by different surveys between 2010 and 2012, was used to calculate sensitivity and ROC curves for MUAC and WHZ.

Findings

The secondary analysis showed that using the current WHO cut-off of 115 mm for screening for severe acute malnutrition over 90% of children with a weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) <−3 would have been missed. Reversely, WHZ<−3 missed 80% of the children with a MUAC<115 mm.

Conclusions

The current WHO cut-off for screening for SAM should be changed upwards from the current 115 mm. In the Cambodian data-set, a cut-off of 133 mm would allow inclusion of >65% of children with a WHZ<−3. Importantly, MUAC and WHZ identified different sub-groups of children with acute malnutrition, therefore these 2 indicators should be regarded as independent from each other. We suggest a 2-step model with MUAC used a screening at community level, followed by MUAC and WHZ measured at a primary health care unit, with both indicators used independently to diagnose severe acute malnutrition. Current guidelines should be changed to reflect this, with treatment initiated when either MUAC <115 mm or WHZ<−3.     

ThermoSpots to Detect Hypothermia in Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition

Introduction

Hypothermia is a risk factor for increased mortality in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Yet frequent temperature measurement remains unfeasible in under-resourced units in developing countries. ThermoSpot is a continuous temperature monitoring sticker designed originally for neonates. When applied to skin, its liquid crystals are designed to turn black with hypothermia and remain green with normothermia.

Aims

To (i) estimate the diagnostic accuracy of ThermoSpots for detecting WHO-defined hypothermia (core temperature <35.5°C or peripheral temperature <35.0°C) in children with SAM and (ii) determine their acceptability amongst mothers.

Methods

Children with SAM in a malnutrition unit in Malawi were enrolled during March-July 2010. The sensitivity and specificity of ThermoSpots were calculated by comparing the device colour against ‘gold standard’ rectal temperatures taken on admission and follow up peripheral temperatures taken until discharge. Guardians completed a questionnaire to assess acceptability.

Results

Hypothermia was uncommon amongst the 162 children enrolled. ThermoSpot successfully detected the one rectal temperature and two peripheral temperatures recorded that met the WHO definition of hypothermia. Overall, 3/846 (0.35%) temperature measurements were in the WHO-defined hypothermia range. Interpreting the brown transition colour (between black and green) as hypothermia improved sensitivities. For milder hypothermia definitions, sensitivities declined (<35.4°C, 50.0%; <35.9°C, 39.2%). Specificity was consistently above 94%. From questionnaires, 40/43 (93%) mothers reported they were 90–100% happy with the device overall. Free-text answers revealed themes of “Skin Rashes”, “User-satisfaction” and “Empowerment".

Conclusion

Although hypothermia was uncommon in this study, ThermoSpots successfully detected these episodes in malnourished children and were acceptable to mothers. Research in settings where hypothermia is common is needed to determine performance with certainty. Instructing users to act when the device’s transition colour appears could improve accuracy. If reliable, ThermoSpots may offer simple, acceptable and continuous temperature measurement for high-burden areas and reduce the workload of over-stretched staff.     

Mortality Risk among Children Admitted in a Large-Scale Nutritional Program in Niger, 2006

Background

In 2006, the Médecins sans Frontières nutritional program in the region of Maradi (Niger) included 68,001 children 6–59 months of age with either moderate or severe malnutrition, according to the NCHS reference (weight-for-height<80% of the NCHS median, and/or mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm and/or presence of bipedal edema). Our objective was to identify baseline risk factors for death among children diagnosed with severe malnutrition using the newly introduced WHO growth standards. As the release of WHO growth standards changed the definition of severe malnutrition, which now includes many children formerly identified as moderately malnourished with the NCHS reference, studying this new category of children is crucial.

Methodology

Program monitoring data were collected from the medical records of all children admitted in the program. Data included age, sex, height, weight, MUAC, clinical signs on admission including edema, and type of discharge (recovery, death, and default/loss to follow up). Additional data included results of a malaria rapid diagnostic test due to Plasmodium falciparum (Paracheck®) and whether the child was a resident of the region of Maradi or came from bordering Nigeria to seek treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was performed on a subset of 27,687 children meeting the new WHO growth standards criteria for severe malnutrition (weight-for-height<−3 Z score, mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm or presence of bipedal edema). We explored two different models: one with only basic anthropometric data and a second model that included perfunctory clinical signs.

Principal Findings

In the first model including only weight, height, sex and presence of edema, the risk factors retained were the weight/height^1.84 ratio (OR: 5,774; 95% CI: [2,284; 14,594]) and presence of edema (7.51 [5.12; 11.0]). A second model, taking into account supplementary data from perfunctory clinical examination, identified other risk factors for death: apathy (9.71 [6.92; 13.6]), pallor (2.25 [1.25; 4.05]), anorexia (1.89 [1.35; 2.66]), fever>38.5°C (1.83 [1.25; 2.69]), and age below 1 year (1.42 [1.01; 1.99]).

Conclusions

Although clinicians will continue to perform screening using clinical signs and anthropometry, these risk indicators may provide additional criteria for the assessment of absolute and relative risk of death. Better appraisal of the child''s risk of death may help orientate the child towards either hospitalization or ambulatory care. As the transition from the NCHS growth reference to the WHO standards will increase the number of children classified as severely malnourished, further studies should explore means to identify children at highest risk of death within this group using simple and standardized indicators.     

Using Mid-Upper Arm Circumference to End Treatment of Severe Acute Malnutrition Leads to Higher Weight Gains in the Most Malnourished Children

Objective

The World Health Organization recommends discharging children admitted to nutrition programs treating severe acute malnutrition, with a low mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC <115 mm) when weight gain is >15%. When this recommendation is followed, the most severely malnourished children receive a shorter treatment compared to children that are less severely malnourished. This study assesses whether using MUAC >125 mm as discharge criteria eliminates this effect.

Methods and Findings

Data from 753 children cured from a Médecins Sans Frontières outpatient nutrition program in Gedaref, North Sudan were analyzed. MUAC >125 mm was used as discharge criteria. Length of stay and percent weight gain of children were compared in relation to nutritional status on admission. Children with low MUAC on admission had a longer duration of treatment (p = 0.000) and also a higher percent weight gain (p = 0.000) than children with higher MUAC. Similar results with weight-for-height z-scores categories were shown with both duration of treatment (p = 0.000) and percent weight gain (p = 0.000).

Conclusion

This study shows that using MUAC as the discharge criteria eliminates the effect of shorter treatment in most severely malnourished children compared to least severely malnourished, as is observed with percent weight gain. The findings directly address the main concern that has been identified with the current WHO recommendation of using percent weight gain. MUAC could be used as discharge criteria, instead of percent weight gain, as having a longer duration of treatment and a higher percent weight gain for the most malnourished is highly desirable.     

Paediatric Acute Kidney Injury in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria: Prevalence,Causes and Mortality Rate

Background

The modest decline in child mortality in Africa raises the question whether the pattern of diseases associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) in children in Nigeria has changed.

Methods

A database of children, aged between one month and 16 years, with AKI (using modified pediatric RIFLE criteria) was reviewed. The cause of AKI was defined as the major underlying disease. The clinical and laboratory features of children with AKI who survived were compared to those who died.

Results

Of the 4 015 children admitted into Lagos University Teaching Hospital between July 2010 and July 2012, 70 episodes of AKI were recorded equalling 17.4 cases per 1000 children. The median age of the children with AKI was 4.8 (range 0.1–14.4) years and 68.6% were males. Acute kidney injury was present in 58 (82.9%) children at admission with 70% in ‘failure’ category. Primary kidney disease (38.6%), sepsis (25.7%) and malaria (11.4%) were the commonest causes. The primary kidney diseases were acute glomerulonephritis (11) and nephrotic syndrome (8). Nineteen (28.4%) children with AKI died. Need for dialysis [odds ratio: 10.04 (2.94–34.33)], white cell >15 000/mm³ [odds ratio: 5.72 (1.65–19.89)] and platelet <100 000/mm³ [odds ratio: 9.56 (2.63–34.77)] were associated with death.

Conclusion

Acute kidney injury is common in children admitted to hospitals. The common causes remain primary kidney diseases, sepsis and malaria but the contribution of sepsis is rising while malaria and gastroenteritis are declining. Acute kidney injury-related mortality remains high.     

High Rates of Pneumonia in Children under Two Years of Age in a South East Asian Refugee Population

Background

There are an estimated 150 million episodes of childhood pneumonia per year, with 11–20 million hospital admissions and 1.575 million deaths. Refugee children are particularly vulnerable, with poorly defined pneumonia epidemiology.

Methods

We followed a birth cohort of 955 refugee infants, born over a one-year period, until two years of age. Clinical and radiographic pneumonia were diagnosed according to WHO criteria. Detailed characteristics were collected to determine risk factors for clinical, radiological and multiple episodes of pneumonia. Investigations were taken during a pneumonia episode to help determine or to infer an aetiological diagnosis.

Findings

The incidence of clinical pneumonia was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.75) episodes per child year (/CY) and of radiological primary endpoint pneumonia (PEP) was 0.22/CY (95% CI 0.20–0.24). The incidence of pneumonia without severe signs was 0.50/CY (95% CI 0.48–0.53), severe pneumonia 0.15/CY (95% CI 0.13–0.17) and very severe pneumonia 0.06/CY (0.05–0.07). Virus was detected, from a nasopharyngeal aspirate, in 61.3% of episodes. A reduced volume of living space per person (IRR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99–1.0, p = 0.003) and young maternal age (IRR 1.59, 95% CI 1.12–2.27, p = 0.01) were risk factors for developing pneumonia. The risk of a child having >1 episode of pneumonia was increased by having a shorter distance to the next house (IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–1.00, p = 0.04). Infants were at risk of having an episode of PEP if there was a shorter distance from stove to bed (IRR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80–0.99, p = 0.03). Raised CRP and neutrophil values were associated with PEP.

Conclusions

There was a high incidence of pneumonia in young children in this SE Asian refugee population. Viral infections were important, however CXR and non-specific marker findings suggested that bacteria may be involved in up to a third of cases.     

Evaluation of Pneumonia Severity and Acute Physiology Scores to Predict ICU Admission and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Influenza

Background

The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions.

Methods

Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%).

Results

The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC≥0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71–0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC≥0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided.

Conclusions

None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.     

Long term outcome of severe anaemia in Malawian children

Background

Severe anaemia is a common, frequently fatal, condition in African children admitted to hospital, but its long term outcome is unknown. Early reports that survivors may be at risk of additional late morbidity and mortality may have significant implications for child survival in Africa. We assessed the short and long term outcome of severe anaemia in Malawian children and identified potential risk factors for death and further severe anaemia.

Methodology and Findings

For 18 months, we followed up children (6–60 months old) presenting to hospital with severe anaemia (haemoglobin ≤5g/dl) and their hospital and community controls with the aim to compare all cause mortality and severe anaemia recurrence rates between the groups, and to identify risk factors for these adverse outcomes. A total of 377 cases, 377 hospital controls and 380 community controls were recruited. Among cases, the in-hospital mortality was 6.4% and post-discharge all cause mortality was 12.6%, which was significantly greater than in hospital controls (2.9%) or community controls (1.4%) (Log rank test, p<0.001). The incidence of recurrence of severe anaemia among the cases was 0.102 per child-year (95% Confidence Interval 0.075–0.138), and was significantly higher than the 0.007 per child-year (95% CI 0.003–0.015) in the combined controls (p<0.0001). HIV was the most important risk factor both for post-discharge mortality (Hazard Ratio 10.5, 95% CI 4.0–27.2) and for recurrence of severe anaemia (HR 5.6, 95% CI 1.6–20.1).

Conclusions

Severe anaemia carries a high ‘hidden’ morbidity and mortality occurring in the months after initial diagnosis and treatment. Because severe anaemia is very common, this is likely to contribute importantly to overall under-five mortality. If not adequately addressed, severe anaemia may be an obstacle to achievement of the Millennium development goal No.4 on child survival. Strategies to diagnose and properly treat HIV infected children early most likely will reduce the high post-discharge mortality in severe anaemia.     

Variations in Mortality in Children Admitted with Pneumonia to Kenyan Hospitals

Background

The existing case fatality estimates of inpatient childhood pneumonia in developing countries are largely from periods preceding routine use of conjugate vaccines for infant immunization and such primary studies rarely explore hospital variations in mortality. We analysed case fatality rates of children admitted to nine Kenyan hospitals with pneumonia during the era of routine infant immunization with Hib conjugate vaccine to determine if significant variations exist between hospitals.

Methods

Pneumonia admissions and outcomes in paediatric wards are described using data collected over two time periods: a one-year period (2007–2008) in nine hospitals, and data from a 9.25-year period (1999-March 2008) in one of the participating hospitals. Hospital case fatality rates for inpatient pneumonia during 2007 to 2008 were modeled using a fixed effect binomial regression model with a logit link. Using an interrupted time series design, data from one hospital were analysed for trends in pneumonia mortality during the period between 1997 and March 2008.

Results

Overall, 195 (5.9%) children admitted to all 9 hospitals with pneumonia from March 2007 to March 2008 died in hospital. After adjusting for child’s sex, comorbidity, and hospital effect, mortality was significantly associated with child’s age (p<0.001) and pneumonia severity (p<0.001). There was evidence of significant variations in mortality between hospitals (LR χ² = 52.19; p<0.001). Pneumonia mortality remained stable in the periods before (trend −0.03, 95% CI −0.1 to 0.02) and after Hib introduction (trend 0.04, 95% CI −0.04 to 0.11).

Conclusions

There are important variations in hospital-pneumonia case fatality in Kenya and these variations are not attributed to temporal changes. Such variations in mortality are not addressed by existing epidemiological models and need to be considered in allocating resources to improve child health.     

Mortality and Health Outcomes of HIV-Exposed and Unexposed Children in a PMTCT Cohort in Malawi

Background

Mortality and morbidity among HIV-exposed children are thought to be high in Malawi. We sought to determine mortality and health outcomes of HIV-exposed and unexposed infants within a PMTCT program.

Method

Data were collected as part of a retrospective cohort study in Zomba District, Malawi. HIV-infected mothers were identified via antenatal, delivery and postpartum records with a delivery date 18–20 months prior; the next registered HIV-uninfected mother was identified as a control. By interview and health record review, data on socio-demographic characteristics, service uptake, and health outcomes were collected. HIV-testing was offered to all exposed children.

Results

173 HIV-infected and 214 uninfected mothers were included. 4 stillbirths (1.0%) occurred; among the 383 livebirths, 41 (10.7%) children died by 20 months (32 (18.7%) HIV-exposed and 9 unexposed children (4.3%; p<0.0001)). Risk factors for child death included: HIV-exposure [adjOR2.9(95%CI 1.1–7.2)], low birthweight [adjOR2.5(1.0–6.3)], previous child death (adjOR25.1(6.5–97.5)] and maternal death [adjOR5.3(11.4–20.5)]. At 20 months, HIV-infected children had significantly poorer health outcomes than HIV-unexposed children and HIV-exposed but uninfected children (HIV-EU), including: hospital admissions, delayed development, undernutrition and restrictions in function (Lansky scale); no significant differences were seen between HIV-EU and HIV-unexposed children. Overall, no difference was seen at 20 months among HIV-infected, HIV-EU and HIV-unexposed groups in Z-scores (%<−2.0) for weight, height and BMI. Risk factors for poor functional health status at 20 months included: HIV-infection [adjOR8.9(2.4–32.6)], maternal illness [adjOR2.8(1.5–5.0)] and low birthweight [adjOR2.0(1.0–4.1)].

Conclusion

Child mortality remains high within this context and could be reduced through more effective PMTCT including prioritizing the treatment of maternal HIV infection to address the effect of maternal health and survival on infant health and survival. HIV-infected children demonstrated developmental delays, functional health and nutritional deficits that underscore the need for increased uptake of early infant diagnosis and institution of ART for all infected infants.     

Estimation of the National Disease Burden of Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness in Kenya and Guatemala: A Novel Methodology

Background

Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden.

Methods and Findings

This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases.

Conclusions

Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries.     

Treatment of Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia with Oral Amoxicillin in Under-Five Children in Developing Country: A Systematic Review

Objective

To assess the evidence regarding efficacy of oral amoxicillin compared to standard treatment for WHO-defined severe community acquired pneumonia in under-five children in developing country.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis of data from published Randomized trials (RCTs).

Data sources

MEDLINE (1970– July 2012) via PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 7, July 2012), and EMBASE (1988– June 2012).

Methods

Eligible trials compared oral amoxicillin administered in ambulatory setting versus standard treatment for WHO-defined severe community acquired pneumonia in children under-five. Primary outcomes were proportion of children developing treatment failure at 48 hr, and day 6. GRADE criteria was used to rate the quality of evidence.

Results

Out of 281 full text articles assessed for eligibility, 5 trials including 12364 children were included in the meta-analysis. Oral amoxicillin administered either in hospital or community setting is effective in treatment of severe pneumonia and is not inferior to the standard treatment. None of the clinical predictors of treatment failure by 48 hr (very severe disease, fever and lower chest indrawing, and voluntary with-drawl and loss to follow up) was significant between the two groups. The clinical predictors of treatment failure that were significant by day 6 were very severe disease, inability to drink, change of antibiotic, and fever alone. The effect was almost consistent across the studies.

Conclusion

Though oral amoxicillin is effective in treatment of severe CAP in under-five children in developing country, the evidence generated is of low-quality. More trials with uniform comparators are needed in order to strengthen the evidence.     

Reducing Deaths from Severe Pneumonia in Children in Malawi by Improving Delivery of Pneumonia Case Management

Objective

To evaluate the pneumonia specific case fatality rate over time following the implementation of a Child Lung Health Programme (CLHP) within the existing government health services in Malawi to improve delivery of pneumonia case management.

Methods

A prospective, nationwide public health intervention was studied to evaluate the impact on pneumonia specific case fatality rate (CFR) in infants and young children (0 to 59 months of age) following the implementation of the CLHP. The implementation was step-wise from October 1^st 2000 until 31^st December 2005 within paediatric inpatient wards in 24 of 25 district hospitals in Malawi. Data analysis compared recorded outcomes in the first three months of the intervention (the control period) to the period after that, looking at trend over time and variation by calendar month, age group, severity of disease and region of the country. The analysis was repeated standardizing the follow-up period by using only the first 15 months after implementation at each district hospital.

Findings

Following implementation, 47,228 children were admitted to hospital for severe/very severe pneumonia with an overall CFR of 9•8%. In both analyses, the highest CFR was in the children 2 to 11 months, and those with very severe pneumonia. The majority (64%) of cases, 2–59 months, had severe pneumonia. In this group there was a significant effect of the intervention Odds Ratio (OR) 0•70 (95%CI: 0•50–0•98); p = 0•036), while in the same age group children treated for very severe pneumonia there was no interventional benefit (OR 0•97 (95%CI: 0•72–1•30); p = 0•8). No benefit was observed for neonates (OR 0•83 (95%CI: 0•56–1•22); p = 0•335).

Conclusions

The nationwide implementation of the CLHP significantly reduced CFR in Malawian infants and children (2–59 months) treated for severe pneumonia. Reasons for the lack of benefit for neonates, infants and children with very severe pneumonia requires further research.     

Clinical Signs of Radiologic Pneumonia in Under-Five Hypokalemic Diarrheal Children Admitted to an Urban Hospital in Bangladesh

Background

Clinical signs of pneumonia are often veiled in under-five diarrheal children presenting with hypokalemia, making clinical diagnosis of pneumonia very difficult in such population. However, there is no published report that describes the influences of hypokalemia on the clinical signs of pneumonia in diarrheal children. Our objective was to assess the influences of hypokalemia, and their outcome in such children.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled all under-five diarrheal children (n = 180) admitted to the Special Care Ward of the Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b from September-December 2007 with radiological pneumonia who also had their serum potassium estimated. We compared the clinical features and outcome of the diarrheal children having pneumonia with (cases = 55) and without hypokalemia (controls = 125).

Results

The case-fatality among the cases was 2 times higher compared to the controls, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.202). In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders such as age of the patient, clinical dehydration, severe wasting, abnormally sleepy, lower chest wall in-drawing, nasal flaring and inability to drink on admission, under-five diarrheal children with pneumonia who presented with nutritional edema had 3 times more risk to have hypokalemia compared to those without nutritional edema (OR = 2.76, 95% CI = 1.01–7.51) and these hypokalemic children were 64% less likely to present with fast breathing (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.17–0.74).

Conclusion and significance

The results of our analysis are simple but may have great public health implications and underscore the importance of diligent assessment for pneumonia in under-five diarrheal children having risk of hypokalemia as in children with nutritional edema even in absence of fast breathing, a useful sign of pneumonia. This may help for early initiation of first dose of parental antibiotics along with potassium supplementation before referral to tertiary hospitals by health workers to combat probability of deaths in such population especially in resource limited settings.