Balancing Evidence and Uncertainty when Considering Rubella Vaccine Introduction

Background

Despite a safe and effective vaccine, rubella vaccination programs with inadequate coverage can raise the average age of rubella infection; thereby increasing rubella cases among pregnant women and the resulting congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in their newborns. The vaccination coverage necessary to reduce CRS depends on the birthrate in a country and the reproductive number, R₀, a measure of how efficiently a disease transmits. While the birthrate within a country can be known with some accuracy, R₀ varies between settings and can be difficult to measure. Here we aim to provide guidance on the safe introduction of rubella vaccine into countries in the face of substantial uncertainty in R₀.

Methods

We estimated the distribution of R₀ in African countries based on the age distribution of rubella infection using Bayesian hierarchical models. We developed an age specific model of rubella transmission to predict the level of R₀ that would result in an increase in CRS burden for specific birth rates and coverage levels. Combining these results, we summarize the safety of introducing rubella vaccine across demographic and coverage contexts.

Findings

The median R₀ of rubella in the African region is 5.2, with 90% of countries expected to have an R₀ between 4.0 and 6.7. Overall, we predict that countries maintaining routine vaccination coverage of 80% or higher are can be confident in seeing a reduction in CRS over a 30 year time horizon.

Conclusions

Under realistic assumptions about human contact, our results suggest that even in low birth rate settings high vaccine coverage must be maintained to avoid an increase in CRS. These results lend further support to the WHO recommendation that countries reach 80% coverage for measles vaccine before introducing rubella vaccination, and highlight the importance of maintaining high levels of vaccination coverage once the vaccine is introduced.     

Can we prevent an increase in the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome in the next decade?

The immunity to rubella of 115 girls aged 10 to 14 years was tested in 1978. The proportion of girls found to be immune was 80%, similar to rates in the prevaccination era. Nearly half of the immunity was from documented vaccination, and the other half was presumably from infection with wild rubella virus. The vaccination failure rate was 12%. Because of declining immunity to rubella of women of child-bearing age, detecting low levels of immunity in these women is becoming increasingly important. Immunization of 12- to 15-month-old children has not been effective. Vaccinating all girls 10 to 12 years old would likely be the most effective method of preventing an increase in the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome in the next decade.     

Burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in India based on data from cross-sectional serosurveys, 2017 and 2019–20

BackgroundIndia has set a goal to eliminate measles and rubella/Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) by 2023. Towards this goal, India conducted nationwide supplementary immunization activity (SIA) with measles-rubella containing vaccine (MRCV) targeting children aged between 9 months to <15 years and established a hospital-based sentinel surveillance for CRS. Reliable data about incidence of CRS is necessary to monitor progress towards the elimination goal.MethodsWe conducted serosurveys in 2019–20 among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics of 6 hospitals, which were also sentinel sites for CRS surveillance, to estimate the prevalence of IgG antibodies against rubella. We systematically sampled 1800 women attending antenatal clinics and tested their sera for IgG antibodies against rubella. We used rubella seroprevalence data from the current survey and the survey conducted in 2017 among antenatal women from another 6 CRS surveillance sites to construct a catalytic models to estimate the incidence and burden of CRS.ResultThe seroprevalence of rubella antibodies was 82.3% (95% CI: 80.4–84.0). Rubella seropositivity did not differ by age group and educational status. Based on the constant and age-dependent force of infection models, we estimated that the annual incidence of CRS in India was 225.58 per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 217.49–232.41) and 65.47 per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 41.60–104.16) respectively. This translated to an estimated 14,520 (95% CI: 9,225–23,100) and 50,028 (95% CI: 48,234–51,543) infants with CRS every year based on age-dependent and constant force of infection models respectively.ConclusionsOur findings indicated that about one fifth of women in the reproductive age group in India were susceptible for rubella. The estimates of CRS incidence will serve as a baseline to monitor the impact of MRCV SIAs, as well progress towards the elimination goal of rubella/CRS.     

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review

Background

The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries.

Methods

We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally.

Results

The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996.

Conclusions

Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.     

Rubella in Russia: variability of the infectious agent during the period of vaccine prophylaxis

AIM: To assess influence of vaccination against rubella on the genetic diversity of rubella virus. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Vaccine strains of rubella virus Wistar 27/3 and Orlov-B as well as sera from patients with rubella obtained in Perm region during 1999 - 2005 period and standard serologic, molecular, epidemiologic and statistical methods were used. The study was performed according to the WHO recommendations on the genotyping of wild rubellavirus strains. RESULTS: Strains of rubella virus isolated in Perm region, vaccine strain Orlov-B (Saint Petersburg), and 4 Russian strains isolated in 1967-1997 before vaccine introduction belong to the same genetic group with high degree of homology - genetic divergence do not exceed 0 - 1%. This group was identified as genotype 2c which, according to WHO's data, circulates only in Russia. Periods of epidemic peaks of rubella incidence and its falls as well as selective immunization of girls and women of childbearing age did not influence on the genetic stability of the virus (divergence did not exceed 0.6 - 2.0%). On the contrary, mass immunization of children aged 1 - 2 years during 4 years resulted in statistically significant changes of rubella virus subtype inside the genotype 2c. CONCLUSION: Ten-year experience of rubella vaccination in Perm region demonstrates necessity of inclusion of monitoring for rubella virus variability in the system of epidemiological surveillance and control for rubella infection during period of its prevention by vaccine.     

Monitoring congenital rubella embryopathy

BACKGROUND: Currently, all developed countries include rubella vaccination in their immunization programs, targeting the complete elimination of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). In the underdeveloped world, where this severely disabling condition still exists, only a few countries have implemented vaccination policies, and almost no data on their effectiveness or on prevalence rates are available. The aims of the present work were to search for the best phenotype to be used as a sentinel for CRS in a large series of malformed newborns and to propose a CRS surveillance system, based only on clinical data. METHODS: A total of 43 infants diagnosed as having CRS were obtained from 19,184 multimalformed infants, ascertained by the Latin-American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations, World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for the Prevention of Birth Defects (ECLAMC), over 3,883,165 consecutive births, between 1982 and 2003. They were distributed by country and the most frequent birth defects were identified. From the 19,184 multimalformed infants, all cases presenting the birth defects identified were selected. The sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio (LR) in detecting CRS were determined for these birth defects, alone and in combination. The sample size of multimalformed infants required to detect different levels of increase in the rate of CRS was determined for three sentinel phenotypes. RESULTS: The rate of CRS was highest in Brazil. Based on the best possible combination of sensitivity, specificity, and LR, the dyad comprising eye anomalies and congenital heart defects was shown to be the most appropriate sentinel, with the lowest sample size required, to detect CRS in neonates. CONCLUSIONS: A surveillance system for CRS, based on clinical data in newborns, is being proposed, in an attempt to monitor ongoing vaccination policies, aimed at eliminating CRS in developing countries.     

Fetal infection after maternal reinfection with rubella: criteria for defining reinfection.

Five cases of asymptomatic maternal reinfection with rubella are described that occurred in England and Wales during 1985-8 and resulted in intrauterine infection. The criteria for diagnosing reinfection are described. In four cases the rubella contact was with the woman''s own children. Two women had therapeutic abortions, rubella virus being recovered from the products of conception, and three were delivered of infants with congenitally acquired disease. Though the risks associated with maternal reinfection with rubella are very small and being measured in a prospective study, it is hoped that the recently introduced augmented programme of rubella vaccination will reduce rubella in the community and therefore this small risk still further.     

Evaluation of the incidence of congenital rubella in GDR]

Annual number of congenital rubellas in GDR was evaluated by means of a mathematic model. Dates of inmunity rate of rubella in L. and P. districts obtained by means of haemagglutination inhibition reaction were taken into account. From these dates of a number of possible primary cases of rubella infection in wifes in the first 3 months of pregnancy as well as literary dates on mean number of monsters determined after the infection, i.e. 10--15--25% cases, were evaluated. There were obtained in relation with different mean numbers of monsters 37--56--93 cases of congenital rubellas for live born children from mothers at the age of 14 to 45 years. It results in total that the incidence of disease for live born children from mothers up to 45 years, is 0,2--0,5%, i.e. 2--5 children with congenital rubella on 10 000 live born children. Compared with literary data, it results a good correlation between proper evaluations and numbers of congenital rubella incidence quoted by other authors. In view of these evaluations, a conclusion to introduce protective rubella vaccination, is fully justified.     

Increase in congenital rubella occurrence after immunisation in Greece: retrospective survey and systematic review

ObjectiveTo describe the events leading to the epidemic of congenital rubella syndrome in Greece in 1993 after a major rubella epidemic.DesignRetrospective survey and systematic review.SettingGreece (population 10 million), 1950-95.SubjectsChildren, adolescents, and women of childbearing age.ResultsAround 1975 in Greece the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine started being given to boys and girls aged 1 year without policies to attain high vaccination coverage and to protect adolescents and young women. During the 1980s, vaccination coverage for rubella remained consistently below 50%, and the proportion of pregnant women susceptible to rubella gradually increased. In 1993 the incidence of rubella in young adults was higher than in any previous epidemic year. The epidemic of congenital rubella that followed, with 25 serologically confirmed cases (24.6 per 100 000 live births), was probably the largest such epidemic in Greece after 1950.ConclusionsWith low vaccination coverage, the immunisation of boys and girls aged 1 year against rubella carries the theoretical risk of increasing the occurrence of congenital rubella. This phenomenon, which has not been previously reported, occurred in Greece.     

Surveillance of antibody to measles,mumps, and rubella by age.

Before the introduction of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine a survey was carried out to measure antibody prevalence to the three viruses by age. A total of 8716 samples of serum collected by five public health laboratories in different parts of England during 1986-7 were tested. Despite the current measles vaccination programme 60% of children aged 1-2 years did not have measles antibody and over 80% did not have antibodies to mumps and rubella. In the 3-4 year age group 17% of the children were susceptible to measles, 55% to mumps, and 73% to rubella. The results suggest that vaccinating children early in the second year of life will be necessary to eliminate the three diseases. The survey provides baseline data for continuing surveillance of the immediate and long term effects of the new vaccination strategy.     

Absence of cell-mediated immunity to rubella virus 5 years after rubella vaccination.

The long-term effectiveness of rubella vaccination in childhood is particularly important because the ultimate goal of immunization is the prevention of infection during pregnancy. Of 25 healthy children tested 4 to 5 years after rubella vaccination, 19 showed no evidence of cell-mediated immunity (CM) to rubella virus despite the presence of hemagglutination-inhibition or complement-fixation antibodies or both. Twenty-two of 25 seropositive, naturally infected young adults showed evidence of CMI. These results indicate that fetuses of women who have been vaccinated against rubella may not be protected against damage by wild rubella infection during the pregnancy, when CMI is physiologically depressed.     

Rubella: immunity and vaccination in schoolgirls.

Of 191 schoolgirls, 128 volunteered to take part in a feasibility study of serotesting before and after rubella vaccination, and all responded to RA 27/3 vaccine. Had the serum samples been taken by a fingerprick method the number of volunteers would probably have increased considerably. A change in policy for rubella vaccination to testing both before and after vaccination would cost no more than the existing policy, would ensure primary response, and would differentiate those women who were protected by the vaccine from those with antibody to wild virus.     

Congenital rubella in babies of south Asian women in England and Wales: an excess and its causes.

The incidence of congenital rubella was found to be 2.3 times higher in Asian than non-Asian births in England and Wales. This was attributed in part to higher susceptibility to rubella in Asian than non-Asian women, as shown by antenatal serological data from public health laboratories in Leeds, Luton, and Manchester. Examination of the ethnic origin of pregnant women requesting laboratory testing after contact with rubella or rash and of women with laboratory confirmed rubella in pregnancy also suggested that the disease was being underdiagnosed in pregnant Asian women. Failure to prevent congenital rubella by termination of infected pregnancies may therefore contribute to the increased incidence of the syndrome in Asians. Health education programmes about the dangers of rubella in pregnancy and of the need for vaccination can readily be promoted in the Asian community through existing ethnic organisations. Protection of other ethnic minorities likely to be at similar increased risk may require a vaccination programme aimed at national elimination of rubella.     

Pregnant Women in and Around Dhaka City: Are Their Children at Risk of Developing Congenital Rubella Syndrome?

Rubella Virus (RUBV) is a common cause of childhood rash and fever in non-immunized populations, and its public health importance relates to teratogenic effects of primary rubella infection in women with early pregnancy. Infection of the fetus may lead to congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). This work aimed to assess the degree of risk associated in acquiring rubella virus infection by the women during pregnancy and developing CRS among their children in Bangladesh. The study population (n = 275) included pregnant mothers (15–38 years) from various socioeconomic backgrounds attending a women health care based hospital. All subjects were personally interviewed, clinically examined and a standardized questionnaire was filled up for each of them. From each participant 3 ml blood was taken and serum was separated. Commercially available ELISA kit was used for the qualitative and quantitative determination of IgM and IgG class antibodies against RUBV in collected serum samples. 209 women were found to contain detectable level of antiRUBV IgG antibodies, but did not possess IgM antibodies against rubella. Only 9% participants were vaccinated previously against rubella virus among the whole antenatal population studied. Ninety-two percent of these vaccinated pregnant women contained serum anti-rubella IgG antibody which was significantly (P = 0.05) higher than that of the nonvaccinated study population (75%). Pregnant women from lower middle and poor socioeconomic class had significantly (P = 0.05) more intra uterine growth retardation (IUGR) of fetus than the upper middle class. 20% of the women of child bearing age examined in this work were not yet exposed to RUBV and at risk of acquiring this virus during pregnancy and subsequently transmitting the virus to the fetus. Our work demonstrates rubella attack rate among antenatal population in Bangladesh as 14.5 in 1000 during pregnancy. A proper and reliable vaccination policy against rubella virus is not yet adopted at the national level in many developing countries including Bangladesh. This work identifies the requirement of detailed study for the identification of intrauterine rubella infection and its related influence on perinatal morbidity and mortality. Thorough epidemiological studies are also considered necessary prior to the development and acceptance of national immunization program against rubella virus in Bangladesh.     

Swedish experience of two dose vaccination programme aiming at eliminating measles,mumps, and rubella.

In 1982 a two dose regimen was introduced in Sweden for the combined vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella of children aged 18 months and 12 years. Since 1977 about half of the preschool children were vaccinated against measles annually, and since 1974 about 80% of 12 year old girls were vaccinated against rubella. During the period 1982 to 1985 90-93% of the eligible age cohorts of 18 month old children and 88-91% of the 12 year old children were immunised with the new combined vaccine. A study in 1982 of about 140 18 month old children who were nearly all seronegative before vaccination showed that 96%, 92%, and 99% seroconverted against measles, mumps, and rubella, respectively. A second study was carried out in 1983 of 247 12 year old children, of whom 11% lacked antibodies to measles, 27% to mumps, and 45% to rubella. This showed seroconversion in 82% and 80% against measles and mumps, respectively, and all children seroconverted against rubella. In the latest study in 1985 of 496 12 year olds 9% and 13% were seronegative against measles and mumps before vaccination, and 41% against rubella. Of these, 88% seroconverted to measles and 80% to mumps, and all converted to rubella when sera were tested by the haemolysis in gel method. After a neutralisation test against measles as well all children showed immunity to the disease. A low incidence of measles and declining figures for mumps and rubella were reported in 1984 to 1986. An outbreak of rubella during 1985 affected mainly boys in age cohorts in which only the girls had been vaccinated during the 1970s.     

Effect of selective vaccination on rubella susceptibility and infection in pregnancy.

The effect of school and adult vaccination on susceptibility to rubella in women of childbearing age was assessed in the Manchester area, where the population attending antenatal clinics is over 40 000 a year. Between 1979 and 1984 the proportion susceptible fell from 6.4% to 2.7%. In 1984, 4.2% of nulliparous women were susceptible compared with 1.4% of women in their second or subsequent pregnancy. Eighty five per cent of pregnant women screened and found to be non-immune were vaccinated post partum before leaving hospital. Requests for prevaccination screening of non-pregnant women increased in response to a national campaign and at the time of local outbreaks of rubella but only two thirds of those found to be nonimmune were subsequently vaccinated. During 1983 and 1984 infection was confirmed in 57 pregnant women--2% of those non-immune. Selective vaccination has reduced susceptibility to rubella in the childbearing population, but it is suggested that mass vaccination of children of both sexes should be added to the existing policy to control circulation of wild rubella virus and reduce the risk of infection to pregnant women who remain susceptible.     

A Socio-Demographic Examination of Adults Responding to Governmental Vaccination Recommendations during the Japanese Rubella Outbreak of 2013

Background

In 2013 a rubella outbreak occurred among Japanese people of working-age which resulted in 14,357 reported cases. The Japanese government subsequently recommended voluntary vaccination or rubella antibody testing for young women (15–49 years of age) who were planning to conceive and for adult men, children, and other persons in potential contact with pregnant women at home. However, the expense and time involved for vaccination, antibody testing and visiting a clinic may represent a major barrier to voluntary compliance among this busy demographic. The aim of the current study was, therefore, to examine potential relationships between the social background of Japanese working-age individuals affected by the 2013 voluntary vaccination campaign.

Methods

A web-based survey of 1,889 Japanese men and women aged 20–49 years was conducted in early 2014. Statistical analyses were used to explore the associations between social background and testing for rubella antibody and / or vaccination uptake during the previous year.

Results

Twenty-four percent of respondents who were planning a pregnancy had been tested for rubella antibody or vaccinated in 2013. However, among those without a current desire for pregnancy, 3% of men and 7% of women, respectively, were tested or vaccinated. Regardless of whether they were planning to conceive, testing for rubella antibodies or vaccination was statistically associated with having acquaintances who had been vaccinated, understanding the government recommendations, and being able to confirm their lack of rubella vaccination history using Maternal and Child Health Handbook records in both men and women.

Conclusion

To help eliminate rubella in Japan, additional initiatives need to target Japanese individuals who cannot envisage a direct benefit from vaccination. The results of this study suggest that disseminating the government recommendation to all potentially affected subpopulations, along with maintaining life-time vaccination records might offer a solution to encourage vaccination uptake among working-age adults in Japan, as elsewhere.     

Rubella-neutralizing and haemagglutinin-inhibiting antibodies in children of different ages

Rubella neutralization and haemagglutinin-inhibition tests were used to determine the incidence of rubella antibodies in the sera of 235 children and adolescents aged 1 month to 20 years. The tests showed good agreement in the detection of rubella antibodies resulting from acute infection. Maternal antibodies became undetectable within six months after birth. The proportion of children possessing rubella antibodies was found to be about 23% by the age of 5 years, rising sharply to 80% in the 6–12 years age group and 83% in the 13–20 years age group. Results indicate that the incidence of rubella infection may be higher in females than in males. The correlation between statements concerning a past history of rubella and immune status was poor, particularly in the older age groups. Any policy for vaccination against rubella must take into account the difficulties of identifying nonimmune persons in a large population.     

Seroprevalence of measles-, mumps- and rubella-specific IgG antibodies in german children and adolescents and predictors for seronegativity

We have undertaken a seroprevalence study with more than 13,000 children, who had been included in the German KIGGS survey, a representative sample of children and adolescents 0-17 years of age. The IgG titres against measles, mumps and rubella were determined in 1 to 17 year olds While 88.8% of the children were MMR-vaccinated at least once, 76.8% of children aged 1 to 17 years showed prevalence of antibodies to MMR. The highest seronegativity was seen with respect to mumps. Gender differences were most pronounced with regard to rubella IgG titres: girls aged 14 to 17 years were best protected, although seronegativity in 6.8% of this vulnerable group still shows the need of improvement. Search for predictors of missing seroprevalence identified young age to be the most important predictor. Children living in the former West and children born outside of Germany had a higher risk of lacking protection against measles and rubella, while children with a migration background but born in Germany were less often seronegative to measles antibodies than their German contemporaries. An association of seronegativity and early vaccination was seen for measles but not for mumps and rubella. A high maternal educational level was associated with seronegativity to measles and rubella. In vaccinated children, seronegativity was highest for mumps and lowest for rubella. For mumps, high differences were observed for seronegativity after one-dose and two-dose vaccination, respectively. Seronegativity increases as time since last vaccination passes thus indicating significant waning effects for all three components of MMR.