Synchronous short-term population fluctuations of some birds and mammals in Fennoscandia - occurrence and distribution

We examined population fluctuations of the voles Microtus agrestis L. and Clethrionomys glareolus Schreb. by biannual trapping; black grouse Tetrao tetrix L., mountain hare Lepus timidus L., and red fox Vulpes vulpes L. by using bag records from all over Sweden, questionnaires from south-central Sweden, and population indices from Grimsö Wildlife Research Area in south-central Sweden. Synchronous population fluctuations between voles as a group and the other species conformed to a 3–4 year periodic pattern in both autumn and spring populations only in northern and central Sweden (the boreal forest region). Spring populations of boreal forest grouse, hare, and probably also fox, lagged one year behind the voles. The northerly areas also formed geographical units of co-fluctuation within each game species. Using our own data as well as reviewing previous studies in Fennoscandia, we conclude that synchronized 3–4 year population fluctuations of voles and medium-sized herbivores are confined to the central and northern part of Fennoscandia, although voles may exhibit short-term population fluctuations further south. The synchronizing link between the herbivores could be (1) food plant quality and/or quantity and/or (2) predation. We could not reject either of these two plausible mechanisms as a cause of interspecifically synchronous fluctuations.     

Of lemmings and snowshoe hares: the ecology of northern Canada

Two population oscillations dominate terrestrial community dynamics in northern Canada. In the boreal forest, the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) fluctuates in cycles with an 8-10 year periodicity and in tundra regions lemmings typically fluctuate in cycles with a 3-4 year periodicity. I review 60 years of research that has uncovered many of the causes of these population cycles, outline areas of controversy that remain and suggest key questions to address. Lemmings are keystone herbivores in tundra ecosystems because they are a key food resource for many avian and mammalian predators and are a major consumer of plant production. There remains much controversy over the role of predation, food shortage and social interactions in causing lemming cycles. Predation is well documented as a significant mortality factor limiting numbers. Food shortage is less likely to be a major limiting factor on population growth in lemmings. Social interactions might play a critical role in reducing the rate of population growth as lemming density rises. Snowshoe hares across the boreal forest are a key food for many predators and their cycles have been the subject of large-scale field experiments that have pinpointed predation as the key limiting factor causing these fluctuations. Predators kill hares directly and indirectly stress them by unsuccessful pursuits. Stress reduces the reproductive rate of female hares and is transmitted to their offspring who also suffer reduced reproductive rates. The maternal effects produced by predation risk induce a time lag in the response of hare reproductive rate to density, aiding the cyclic dynamics.     

Mountain hare populations on islands: effects of predation by red fox

Summary On islands off the west coast of Sweden the density of mountain hares (Lepus timidus L.) is very high. One of the main predators on hares, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.), is only present during short periods. Data on hare density and predation by red fox and eagle owl (Bubo bubo (L.)) has been analyzed from five islands over several years. Winter mortality in years with low predation pressure was independent of hare density. But when red fox or eagle owl were present on islands (i.e., high predation pressure) winter mortality became density dependent. Thus, at low density, winter mortality did not increase through red fox predation. But at densities up to two hares/ha, predation pressure was increasing and could be limiting for these populations. At still higher hare density predation pressure became less intensive. The functional response for foxes preying on hares showed a type II or a sigmoid type III response pattern. In normal summers, the population increase due to reproduction was at least two-fold. When a fox was present there was instead a sharp decrease in hare numbers. Fox predation had a stronger effect in summer than in winter. By switching between islands and mainland areas from winter to summer, a fox can stabilize fluctuations in hare numbers on the islands. This is dependent on how often the ice permits a fox to reach an island and the lack of numerical response by predators.     

The distribution of mountain hares Lepus timidus in Europe: a challenge from brown hares L. europaeus?

1. Throughout the most recent glacial period (Weichsel), the mountain hare Lepus timidus had a continuous distribution in the tundra habitat south of the ice‐rim. When the ice retreated, mountain hares colonized deglaciated land, and spread over northern Europe. 2. Since the Weichsel, the mountain hare's distribution in Europe has been gradually reduced and at present comprises Ireland and the Scottish Highlands, high altitudes in the Alps, isolated forests in eastern Poland, most of Fennoscandia and from the Baltic countries eastwards through Russia. Declines during the last century have been observed in Sweden and Russia. 3. This review defines and evaluates causes for this gradual reduction and fragmentation of the mountain hare's distribution, with special focus on interactions with brown hares Lepus europaeus. The relative importance of diseases, predation, cultivation and interactions with other herbivores than brown hares are discussed. 4. A plausible cause of the possible permanent disappearance of mountain hares in Europe appears to be exclusion by interspecific competition and hybridization with, and/or epidemic diseases mediated by, the congeneric brown hare.     

Prevalence, intensity and aggregation of intestinal parasites in mountain hares and their potential impact on population dynamics

Mountain hare Lepus timidus populations show unstable dynamics and since hares carry a significant helminth infection and host-parasite interactions are known to be destabilising, they have been proposed as a possible causal mechanism for the observed instability. We assessed the prevalence, intensity of infection and aggregation of the helminth parasites Graphidium strigosum and Trichostrongylus retortaeformis recovered from 589 mountain hares culled from 30 Scottish sporting estates in 1999 and 2000. Graphidium strigosum showed low prevalence and intensity of infection and was highly aggregated. In contrast, T. retortaeformis showed high prevalence and intensity of infection and a low degree of aggregation. Differences in body condition of the hares were best explained by a model including sex and month of collection and interaction terms for sex-month and intensity of infection of T. retortaeformis-month. The low degree of aggregation of T. retortaeformis and the significant negative effect of intensity of infection on body condition are in accordance with the hypothesis that the host-parasite interaction is the causative destabilising mechanism for mountain hare dynamics.     

Snowshoe hare demography during a cyclic population low

1. Snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus Erxleben) populations were studied in south-west Yukon during the low phase of the 10-year population cycle. Food availability and predator abundance were manipulated in a factorial design to determine the importance of each factor in hare dynamics during this phase.
2. Food was abundant during the low phase, and snowshoe hares were not food limited.
3. Survival of hares was higher than at any other phase of the cycle, and predators were scarce, but >75% of hare deaths resulted from predation.
4. Food addition resulted in higher hare densities and better body condition than on control sites. There were no observable effects of food addition on population rate of increase, recruitment, survival or age structure.
5. Mammalian predator reduction resulted in higher hare densities, higher survival, better body condition and an older age structure. Relative to control populations, recruitment was lower and population rates of increase similar.
6. The joint manipulation of food addition + predator reduction had greater positive effects on hare density and body condition than either single factor manipulation. Survival was better than on control sites, and the age structure was older than on control sites. Population rates of increase were similar, but recruitment was higher on the control areas.
7. We conclude that snowshoe hare dynamics at the low of the cycle are dominated by the interaction of food and predation. Risk of predation also had indirect effects on snowshoe hare age structure and body condition.     

The recent expansion of the brown hare (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepus europaeus</Emphasis>) in Sweden with possible implications to the mountain hare (<Emphasis Type="Italic">L. timidus</Emphasis>)

The brown hare (Lepus europaeus) expanded its Swedish distribution since the 1980s northwards and locally to new areas within its former range. Of 115 brown hare populations within the former range reported in a hunter enquiry, those established after 1980 were situated higher above the sea level than older ones and higher than neighbouring (<50 km) older populations. Reports on increased use of forest habitats by brown hares were equally frequent among recent and older populations, suggesting a process promoted solely by less harsh winters. Supposed hare hybrids were more often reported from hunting grounds with recent brown hare establishment, i.e. where the species expands in time and in space. In a 27-year dataset on brown hare observations, the recent increased use of forest habitats was supported in that maximum distances to agricultural land for brown hare sightings were higher in mild winters, whereas the proportions of the annual observations made during winter were lower. In 40-year bag records from two Swedish counties, the dynamics of the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) responded positively to snow parameters, whereas brown hares responded negatively. We suggest that the state of mountain hare populations primarily depends on winter conditions and predation pressure, whereas possible effects of hybridization are unclear. If winter conditions remain as in the last 15 years, mountain hare numbers are not likely to increase in southern Sweden, whereas the brown hare may expand even further. In either case, hybrids will occur in sympatric areas in frequencies probably related to the density of the respective true species.     

Coyote prey selection and community stability during a decline in food supply

The foraging behavior of predators can have a large influence on community dynamics and has been shown to increase stability in some cases and decrease stability in others. I studied the foraging behavior of coyotes ( Canis latrans ) in the Alaska Range during the peak and decline of a snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus ) population cycle (1999–2002). Coyote diet was compared with prey availability to test for changes in prey selection and to examine the effect of coyote predation on the vertebrate prey community. Coyotes responded to the hare decline by increasing selection for hares and porcupines, whereas selection for voles, ground squirrels and Dall sheep did not change. Although the study area was characterized by considerable habitat heterogeneity, coyotes utilized the area as a fine-grained environment. Coyote foraging behavior was driven primarily by changes in snowshoe hare abundance, and their sensitivity to change in alternative prey density was low. Predation by coyotes may therefore decrease the stability of alternative prey populations rather than dampening fluctuations. In order for predation to enhance the stability of prey populations, I hypothesize that prey profitability must be determined primarily by abundance.     

Predator-Mediated Indirect Effects of Snowshoe Hares on Dall's Sheep in Alaska

ABSTRACT Indirect interactions among species can strongly influence population dynamics and community structure but are often overlooked in management of large mammals. We estimated survival of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli) in the central Alaska Range, USA, during years of differing snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance to test whether indirect interactions with a cyclic hare population affect Dall's sheep either negatively, by subsidizing predators (apparent competition), or positively, by diverting predation (apparent commensalism). Annual survival of adult female sheep was consistently high (0.85 for all yr and age classes combined). In contrast, annual estimates of lamb survival ranged from 0.15 to 0.63. The main predators of lambs were coyotes (Canis latrans) and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), which rely on hares as their primary food and prey on lambs secondarily. Coyotes and eagles killed 78% of 65 radiocollared lambs for which cause of death was known. Lamb survival was negatively related to hare abundance during the previous year, and lamb survival rates more than doubled when hare abundance declined, supporting the hypothesis of predator-mediated apparent competition between hares and sheep. However, stage-specific predation and delays in predator responses to changes in hare numbers led to a positive relationship between abundance of adult Dall's sheep and hares. Lacking reliable estimates of survival, a manager might erroneously conclude that hares benefit sheep. Thus, support for different indirect effects can be obtained from different types of data, which demonstrates the need to determine the mechanisms that create indirect interactions. Long-term survey data suggest that predation by coyotes is limiting this sheep population below levels typical when coyotes were rare or absent. Understanding the nature of indirect interactions is necessary to effectively manage complex predator–prey communities.     

The diet of the mountain hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) on coastal grassland

Across most of their range in Europe, mountain hares are usually restricted to upland areas with poor food quality. In these areas they generally feed on browse species such as heather or twigs and barks of trees. On lowland areas in Europe, with better food quality, the mountain hare is replaced by the brown hare ( Lepus europaeus ) which feeds predominantly on greasses. This khas led some authors to conclude that mountain hares are primarily adapted for browsing. In the absence of brown hares in Ireland, mountain hares are found on a wide variety of habitats including grassland. On grassland, their diet consists almost exclusively of grasses, up to 94% of their annual diet, which is more than has been reported for brown hares on similar habitat. Based on this evidence, and other work, it is proposed that the mountain hare in primarily a grazing animal and competitive exclusion by brown hares may underlie much of their present distribution in Europe.     

Parasitism in a declining population of snowshoe hares

Prevalence and intensity of six endoparasites were determined in 346 snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) obtained at Rochester, Alberta, during December-April 1981-1982, the second winter of a cyclic population decline. The data were analyzed for (1) differences among host sex and age classes, and among months and sample sources, and (2) evidence that parasitism was of demographic significance to the hare population. Prevalence and intensity of Obeliscoides cuniculi were consistently highest among adult hares, but rose most sharply from February to March among juveniles. In contrast, prevalence and intensity of Nematodirus triangularis were highest among juveniles; prevalence reached 90-100% by January, whereas intensity continued to rise through April. Prevalence and intensity of both Trichuris leporis and Protostrongylus boughtoni were highest also among juvenile hares; neither parameter exhibited a definite trend over time. Prevalences of Taenia pisiformis (cysticerci) and Eimeria spp. were unrelated to sex, age or month; but Taenia intensity was highest among juveniles, and Eimeria intensity tended to decrease from December to April. Intensities of Nematodirus, Protostrongylus and Eimeria were higher in male hares than in females. Prevalence and intensity were correlated directly in Obeliscoides, Nematodirus, Trichuris and Eimeria. Hares that died during trapping and handling, or from natural predation, had greater intensities of Obeliscoides than did animals killed on purpose. There was no indication, however, that risk of death was increased by the other parasitic infections. Age-related immune responses to parasitism (except Obeliscoides) were evidenced by reduced or stabilized prevalence and/or intensity among older hares. A multiple-regression model predicted depressed body weight with increasing intensities of Nematodirus, Trichuris or Protostrongylus. Other body-condition and reproductive indices were unassociated with parasite intensities. Within the hare population, Obeliscoides, Trichuris, Protostrongylus and Taenia had overdispersed distributions (typical of many endoparasites) that did not differ from a negative binomial. The frequency with which each possible combination of helminth species occurred within individual hares was consistent with the assumption that such infections occurred independently. There was no compelling reason to believe parasitism was a significant factor in the overwinter decline of this population of snowshoe hares.     

An assessment of overwinter food limitation in a snowshoe hare population at a cyclic low

Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) undergo 8- to 11-year population cycles caused by direct and/or interactive effects of overwinter food shortage and predation. However, the demographic significance of food shortage during cyclic population lows remains unclear. I evaluated the importance of overwinter food limitation to the demography (numbers, age and sex ratios) of low-density hare populations during two winters in Manitoba. Also, I examined whether the hypothesized differences in demography of fed and unfed hare populations could be explained by altered movement patterns or social dynamics. Bimonthly live-trapping revealed that food failed to have a direct long-term effect on the number, or change in number, of hares estimated to be on the three supplemented areas, relative to three control areas. Modest numerical responses to supplementation tended to be short-term (i.e., restricted to winter) and related to pre-supplementation densities, with the study area characterized by the highest hare density displaying the strongest and most consistent response to added food. During winter the percentage of females was remarkably variable among study areas and time periods, but added food may have augmented slightly the proportion of females captured in traps. There tended to be slightly more juveniles on supplemented areas during winter periods, and this effect was strongest during the first winter (1991–1992). I found that immigration rates and percentage of hares that were considered to be transient animals were similar on supplemented and control areas, and that spatial distribution of radio-collared animals on versus off of study areas also was similar. Because the overall effect of food on hare populations was small and short-lived, and could be explained largely by small increases in survival and reproduction, I conclude that the study population was not subject to overwinter food limitation. Received: 22 February 1998 / Accepted: 12 February 1999     

The occurrence of mountain hare mitochondrial DNA in wild brown hares

If interspecific hybrids are fertile and backcross to either parental species, transmission of mitochondrial DNA over the species barrier can occur. To investigate if such transmission has occurred between the brown hare Lepus europeus Pall and the mountain hare L. timidus L. in Scandinavia, an analysis of genetic variation in mitochondrial DNA from 36 hares, collected from 15 localities, was performed. Sequence divergence of mtDNA between species was estimated at 8 ± 1% (SD). Intraspecific mtDNA sequence divergence varied between 0.09 and 0.38% in brown hares and 0.10 and 1.44% in mountain hares. In six out of 18 brown hares examined, two different haplotypes of mountain hare origin were detected, demonstrating a transmission of mtDNA haplotypes from mountain hares to brown hares. The results indicate that interspecific hybridization between the two species occurs in wild populations.     

Factors related to the occurrence of hybrids between brown hares Lepus europaeus and mountain hares L. timidus in Sweden

Hybridization occurs among many species, and may have implications for conservation as well as for evolution. Interspecific gene flow between brown hares Lepus europaeus and mountain hares L. timidus has been documented in Sweden and in continental Europe, and has probably to some extent occurred throughout history in sympatric areas. What local factors or ecological relationships that correlate with or trigger hybridization between these species has however been unclear. We studied spatial distribution of hybrids between brown hares and mountain hares in Sweden in relation to characteristics of the sampled localities (hunting grounds). In a sample of 70 brown hares collected from 39 populations in south‐central Sweden during 2003–2005, 11 (16%) showed introgressed mtDNA from mountain hares. Among the brown hares from their northern range, i.e. in general the most recent establishments, the corresponding figure was 75% (9/12). The frequency of samples with hybrid ancestry increased significantly with latitude, altitude and hilliness, and were higher (p<0.1) in recently established populations and/or where the proportion of arable land was low. Several site‐specific parameters were correlated, e.g. latitude as expected to hilliness, and no parameter explained the occurrence of hybrids exclusively. Instead, the appearance of mountain hare mtDNA among brown hares was associated with a conglomerate of parameters reflecting landscapes atypical for the brown hare, e.g. forest dominated and steep areas where the species quite recently was established. We suggest that these abiotic factors mirror the main aspect influencing hybridization frequency, namely the density or relative frequency of the two species. In atypical brown hare landscapes with recent establishment, mountain hares are probably relatively more common. When one species dominate in numbers, or when both species display low densities, increased frequency of hybridization is expected due to low availability of conspecific partners, a phenomenon referred to as Hubbs’ principle.     

From process to pattern: how fluctuating predation risk impacts the stress axis of snowshoe hares during the 10-year cycle

Predation is a central organizing process affecting populations and communities. Traditionally, ecologists have focused on the direct effects of predation—the killing of prey. However, predators also have significant sublethal effects on prey populations. We investigated how fluctuating predation risk affected the stress physiology of a cyclic population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) in the Yukon, finding that they are extremely sensitive to the fluctuating risk of predation. In years of high predator numbers, hares had greater plasma cortisol levels at capture, greater fecal cortisol metabolite levels, a greater plasma cortisol response to a hormone challenge, a greater ability to mobilize energy and poorer body condition. These indices of stress had the same pattern within years, during the winter and over the breeding season when the hare:lynx ratio was lowest and the food availability the worst. Previously we have shown that predator-induced maternal stress lowers reproduction and compromises offspring’s stress axis. We propose that predator-induced changes in hare stress physiology affect their demography through negative impacts on reproduction and that the low phase of cyclic populations may be the result of predator-induced maternal stress reducing the fitness of progeny. The hare population cycle has far reaching ramifications on predators, alternate prey, and vegetation. Thus, predation is the predominant organizing process for much of the North American boreal forest community, with its indirect signature—stress in hares—producing a pattern of hormonal changes that provides a sensitive reflection of fluctuating predator pressure that may have long-term demographic consequences.     

Owl predation on snowshoe hares: consequences of antipredator behaviour

We show evidence of differential predation on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) by great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and ask whether predation mortality is related to antipredator behaviour in prey. We predicted higher predation on (1) young and inexperienced hares, (2) hares in open habitats lacking cover to protect from owl predation, and (3) hares in above average condition assuming that rich food patches are under highest risk of predation. Information on killed hares was obtained at nest sites of owls and by monitoring hares using radio-telemetry. The availability of age classes within the hare population was established from live-trapping and field data on reproduction and survival. Great horned owls preferred juvenile over adult hares. Juveniles were more vulnerable to owl predation before rather than after dispersal, suggesting that displacement or increased mobility were not causes for this increased mortality. Owls killed ratio-collared hares more often in open than in closed forest types, and they avoided or had less hunting success in habitats with dense shrub cover. Also, owls took hares in above average condition, although it is unclear whether samples from early spring are representative for other seasons. In conclusion, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that variation in antipredator behaviours of snowshoe hares leads to differential predation by great horned owls.     

Food competition between a large ruminant and a small hindgut fermentor: the case of the roe deer and mountain hare

In this study, we demonstrate that the mountain hare and roe deer compete with each other. This was determined using "natural experiments" of populations found in sympatry and allopatry on the islands along the west coast of Norway. We demonstrate that both species occupy the same habitats, share the same food resources and that food availability is limited. Two browsing species as different in size as roe deer and mountain hare might be expected to partition the available vegetation (e.g. woody scrub) in terms of height above ground level. However, from the evidence collected, the feeding-height-separation hypothesis must be rejected as an explanation for ecological separation between roe deer and mountain hares because there was extensive height overlap in resource utilisation by both species and neither species changed its feeding height in response to the presence of the other. Total browse utilisation did not increase when both species were together; rather, species-specific browse utilisation declined when the other species was present. However, the foraging behaviour of each herbivore varied significantly between the allopatric and sympatric sites. When both herbivores were present, the clip diameter of shoots browsed by mountain hares declined to match those selected by roe deer, while roe deer switched from a browse-dominated diet to a diet dominated by winter-green gramineae. The change to smaller-diameter shoots likely resulted in the hare increasing its intake of digestion-inhibiting or toxic secondary metabolites, while the alternative choice of digging through the snow like roe deer to reach the winter-green gramineae is a practice considered energetically too costly for hares. On this basis, we conclude that the enforced switch to a nutritionally inferior diet by mountain hares at the sympatric sites may result in changes to growth rate and body size which consequently impact on mortality and may explain the competitive superiority of the roe deer.     

Charismatic microfauna alter cyanobacterial production through a trophic cascade

The trophic ecology of cyanobacterial blooms is poorly understood on coral reefs. Blooms of toxic cyanobacteria, Lyngbya majuscula, can quickly form large mats. The herbivorous sea hare, Stylocheilus striatus, and the predatory nudibranch, Gymnodoris ceylonica, often associate with these blooms, forming a linear food chain: nudibranch—sea hare—cyanobacteria. Using laboratory studies, this study quantified (1) the functional response of nudibranchs, (2) the effect of sea hare size on predation rates, and (3) the strength of the indirect effect of sea hare predation on cyanobacteria (i.e., a trophic cascade). Nudibranchs consumed on average 2.4 sea hares d^?1, with the consumption of small sea hares 22 times greater than the consumption of large sea hares. Predation of sea hares reduced herbivory. Cyanobacterial biomass was 1.5 times greater when nudibranchs were present relative to when nudibranchs were absent. Although sea hare grazing can substantially reduce cyanobacterial biomass, predation of sea hares may mitigate grazing pressure, and therefore increase the abundance of cyanobacteria.     

Niche overlap of mountain hare subspecies and the vulnerability of their ranges to invasion by the European hare; the (bad) luck of the Irish

Niche conservatism is the tendency of related species to retain ancestral tolerances after geographic separation. We used Ecological Niche Modelling and Principal Components Analysis of bioclimatic and habitat variables to describe the extent of the species niche, and degrees of bioclimatic–habitat niche conservatism within the mountain hare (L. timidus) clade. Mountain hare niche space was contrasted with that of the European hare (L. europaeus), to shed light on species interactions in contact zones throughout Europe. All five subspecies of mountain hare had quantifiably distinct niches. Fennoscandian (L.t. sylvaticus, L.t. timidus) and highland (L.t. scoticus, L.t. varronis) subspecies, however, were most similar, exhibiting greatest apparent niche conservatism. They inhabit tundra, boreal forest and uplands, and, hence are presumed most similar to the ancestral form. The Irish hare was distinct, being consistently distinguished from other mountain hares in both 2D and nth dimensional (4D) niche space. The ecological distinctiveness of the Irish hare provides further evidence that it is an Evolutionarily Significant Unit, particularly vulnerable to displacement by introduced European hares with which it competes and hybridises. Projections under global climate change suggest that, by 2070, bioclimatic space for invasive European hares in Ireland will expand (by 79%) but contract for endemic Irish hares (by 75%), further facilitating their replacement. The near complete species replacement of the heath hare (L.t. sylvaticus) in southern Sweden, where the European hare has also been introduced, may suggest a similar fate may be in store for the Irish hare.     

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10‐year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2‐year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long‐term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10‐year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940–1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10‐year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare–lynx system.