Predictions of Taylor's power law, density dependence and pink noise from a neutrally modeled time series

There has recently been increasing interest in neutral models of biodiversity and their ability to reproduce the patterns observed in nature, such as species abundance distributions. Here we investigate the ability of a neutral model to predict phenomena observed in single-population time series, a study complementary to most existing work that concentrates on snapshots in time of the whole community. We consider tests for density dependence, the dominant frequencies of population fluctuation (spectral density) and a relationship between the mean and variance of a fluctuating population (Taylor's power law). We simulated an archipelago model of a set of interconnected local communities with variable mortality rate, migration rate, speciation rate, size of local community and number of local communities. Our spectral analysis showed ‘pink noise’: a departure from a standard random walk dynamics in favor of the higher frequency fluctuations which is partly consistent with empirical data. We detected density dependence in local community time series but not in metacommunity time series. The slope of the Taylor's power law in the model was similar to the slopes observed in natural populations, but the fit to the power law was worse. Our observations of pink noise and density dependence can be attributed to the presence of an upper limit to community sizes and to the effect of migration which distorts temporal autocorrelation in local time series. We conclude that some of the phenomena observed in natural time series can emerge from neutral processes, as a result of random zero-sum birth, death and migration. This suggests the neutral model would be a parsimonious null model for future studies of time series data.     

Self-organized perturbations enhance class IV behavior and 1/f power spectrum in elementary cellular automata

In this paper, we propose a new class of cellular automata based on the modification of its state space. It is introduced to model a computation which is exposed to an environment. We formalized the computation as extension and projection processes of its state space and resulting misidentifications of the state. This is motivated to embed the role of an environment into the system itself, which naturally induces self-organized internal perturbations rather than the usual external perturbations. Implementing this structure into the elementary cellular automata, we characterized its effect by means of input entropy and power spectral analysis. As a result, the cellular automata with this structure showed robust class IV behavior and a 1/f power spectrum in a wide range of rule space comparative to the notion of the edge of chaos.     

Evolution of carrying capacity in evolution experiments focusing on a single locus on the Escherichia coli chromosome

We performed a series of evolution experiments, the results of which illustrated the relationship between mutations and increased carrying capacity (K). Performing an evolution experiment with repeated cycles of mutation by PCR and selection makes it possible to obtain results over shorter culture durations than in methods reported previously relying on spontaneous mutation and selection. We constructed random mutant populations of Escherichia coli in which members differed only in part of the genomic copy of the glutamine synthetase gene and performed daily serial transfer culture where the populations were in K-selected environments. The value of K in this system was increased by 10(5)- to 10(8)-fold relative to the parent clone, which was achieved by four randomly introduced mutations. This method can be applied to any gene and will be useful for analyzing a number of important issues in evolutionary biology.     

A new fertile Neocalamites from the Upper Permian of Russia and equisetophyte evolution

This paper deals with Neocalamites tubulatus nov. sp., an equisetophyte belonging to the Equisetaceae family. The material studied originates from the Upper Permian deposits of the northern part of European Russia. N. tubulatus nov. sp. is characterized by both sterile and fertile organs belonging to the same parent plant. It has long, flexible stems, rarely branched, with alternating nodes and prolonged ribs on the stem surface corresponding to vascular strands of the stem, and compact lateral strobili, in general aspect similar to the strobili of extant species of Equisetum. N. tubulatus nov. sp. is one of the most ancient representatives of the Equisetaceae family, which shows a distinct morphological pattern of features, among which the lateral position of strobili, characteristic of primitive equisetophytes, is most prominent in this phase of their evolution.     

Populations embedded in trophic communities respond differently to coloured environmental noise

Noise in environmental variables is often described as 'coloured', where colour describes the exponent beta of the scaling relationship between the amplitude of variability and its frequency of occurrence (1/f(beta)). Different environments are known to have different colours and models have shown that colour can have important impacts upon population persistence and dynamics. This study advances current knowledge about the impact of environmental colour using a trophic model (consumer-resource) experiencing environmental noise (temperature) in a biologically realistic manner--derived mechanistically from metabolic scaling theory. The model demonstrates that the variability of consumers and resources can respond differently to changing environmental colour, depending upon (i) their relative ability to track and over or undercompensate for environmental changes and (ii) the relative sensitivity of their equilibria to environmental changes. These results form the basis with which to interpret differences and facilitate comparisons of the variability of ecological communities across gradients of environmental colour.     

Projected effects of climate change on tick phenology and fitness of pathogens transmitted by the North American tick Ixodes scapularis

Ixodes scapularis is the principal tick vector of the Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi and other tick-borne zoonoses in northeastern North America. The degree of seasonal synchrony of nymphal and larval ticks may be important in influencing the basic reproductive number of the pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis. Because the seasonal phenology of tick vectors is partly controlled by ambient temperature, climate and climate change could shape the population biology of tick-borne pathogens. We used projected monthly normal temperatures, obtained from the second version of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) under emissions scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a site in southern Ontario, Canada, to simulate the phenology of I. scapularis in a mathematical model. The simulated seasonal abundance of ticks then determined transmission of three candidate pathogens amongst a population of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Fitness of the different pathogens, in terms of resilience to changes in tick and rodent mortality, minima for infection duration, transmission efficiency and particularly any additional mortality of rodents specifically associated with infection, varied according to the seasonal pattern of immature tick activity, which was different under the temperature conditions projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In each case, pathogens that were long-lived, highly transmissible and had little impact on rodent mortality rates were the fittest. However, under the seasonal tick activity patterns projected for the 2020s and 2050s, the fitness of pathogens that are shorter-lived, less efficiently transmitted, and more pathogenic to their natural hosts, increased. Therefore, climate change may affect the frequency and distribution of I. scapularis-borne pathogens and alter their evolutionary trajectories.     

Vertebrate evolution reflected in the evolution of nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 2

In eukaryotes, mature rRNA sequences are produced from single large (45S) precursor (pre-rRNA) as the result of successive removal of spacers through a series of rapid and intricate actions of endo- and exonucleases. The excision of internal transcribed spacer (ITS2), a eukaryotic-specific insertion, remains the most elusive processing step. ITS2 is the element mandatory for all eukaryotic pre-rRNAs that contain at least three processing cleavage sites for precise 5.8S and 28S formation. Conserved core sequences (cis-elements) binding to trans-factors provide for precise rRNA processing, whereas rapidly diverging regions between the core sequences preserve internal complementarity, which guarantees the spatial integrity of ITS2. Characteristic differences in the formation of such insertions during evolution should reflect the relationships between taxa. The phylogeny of the reptiles and the relationships between taxa proposed by scientists are controversial. To delineate the structural and functional features preserved among reptilian ITS2s, we cloned and sequenced 58 ITS2s belonging to four reptile orders: Squamata, Crocodilians, Aves, and Testudines. We studied the subsequent alignment and folding of variable regions. The sizes and packing of the loop–stems between conserved consensus segments in reptiles vary considerably between taxa. Our phylogenetic trees constructed on the basis of the reptile ITS2s primary structural alignments revealed a split between Iguania clade and all other taxa. True lizards (suborder Scleroglossa) and snakes (suborder Serpentes) show sister relationships, as well as the two other reptilian orders, Crocodilia + Aves and Testudines. In summary, our phylogenetic trees exhibit a mix of specific features deduced or, to the contrary, rejected earlier by other authors.     

Phenology of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile: Medium and long-term cycles and climate inferences

The results of 15 years of monitoring of Posidonia oceanica in the “Cinque Terre” Marine Protected Area (NW Mediterranean) are presented. Seasonal data on meadow characteristics (cover and shoot density), plant phenology (leaf number, leaf length and width, leaf brown portion, undamaged leaves), lepidochronology, leaf epiphyte cover and herbivore pressure collected from three stations at 5, 10 and 17 m depth were compared. Time-series analyses showed both medium-term (5 < years) and long-term cycles (from 5 to more than 20 years). The comparison of annual cycles with sea surface temperatures (SST) and rainfall showed correlations that differed in relation to depth and, in the case of epiphytes, with each side (internal and external) of the leaf blade. Meadow parameters (visual cover, shoot percent cover) and plant parameters (leaf number, number of undamaged leaves, number of scales shoot⁻¹) showed a positive trend in accordance with the rise of air and sea surface temperature recorded over these last decades. Shoot density and leaf width showed exceptions. Leaf length, leaf brown portion length and the number of undamaged leaves shoot⁻¹ showed positive or negative long-term trends, whose variability could not be related to climate data alone. The two major groups of epiphytes (encrusting algae and the bryozoan Electra posidoniae) showed negative trends. Grazing variability could be explained only partially by climate parameters. Epiphyte cover was found to be related to the NAO index.In conclusion, data showed that the effects of the climate change in terms of both sea surface temperature rising and rainfall decreasing may affect the growth cycles of P. oceanica on two levels: on a decadal level, with positive or negative trends in meadow and plant characteristics and in epiphyte cover; on yearly and seasonal levels, influencing endogenous plant growth rhythms, as in the case of leaf production cycle.     

The complex fluctuations of probabilistic Boolean networks

Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) are extensions of Boolean networks (BNs), and both have been widely used to model biological systems. In this paper, we study the long-range correlations of PBNs based on their corresponding Markov chains. PBN states are quantified by the deviation of their steady-state distributions. The results demonstrate that, compared with BNs, PBNs can exhibit these dynamics over a wider and higher noise range. In addition, the constituent BNs significantly impact the generation of 1/f dynamics of PBNs, and PBNs with homogeneous steady-state distributions tend to sustain the 1/f dynamics over a wider noise range.     

LB1’s virtual endocast, microcephaly, and hominin brain evolution

Earlier observations of the virtual endocast of LB1, the type specimen for Homo floresiensis, are reviewed, extended, and interpreted. Seven derived features of LB1's cerebral cortex are detailed: a caudally-positioned occipital lobe, lack of a rostrally-located lunate sulcus, a caudally-expanded temporal lobe, advanced morphology of the lateral prefrontal cortex, shape of the rostral prefrontal cortex, enlarged gyri in the frontopolar region, and an expanded orbitofrontal cortex. These features indicate that LB1's brain was globally reorganized despite its ape-sized cranial capacity (417 cm³). Neurological reorganization may thus form the basis for the cognitive abilities attributed to H. floresiensis. Because of its tiny cranial capacity, some workers think that LB1 represents a Homo sapiens individual that was afflicted with microcephaly, or some other pathology, rather than a new species of hominin. We respond to concerns about our earlier study of microcephalics compared with normal individuals, and reaffirm that LB1 did not suffer from this pathology. The intense controversy about LB1 reflects an older continuing dispute about the relative evolutionary importance of brain size versus neurological reorganization. LB1 may help resolve this debate and illuminate constraints that governed hominin brain evolution.     

Diversity and evolution of Pong-like elements in Bambusoideae subfamily

The PIF/IS5 is a recently discovered superfamily of DNA transposons which include Pong-like elements and PIF-like elements and has been successively detected in the genomes of many flowering plants, fungi and diverse animals. Here we present the first comprehensive characterization and analysis of Pong-like elements in Bambusoideae subfamily. Eighty-two Pong-like elements were cloned and sequenced from 44 representative species of Bambusoideae. Phylogenetic analysis of 82 distinct Pong-like elements sequences showed that Pong-like elements were widespread, diverse and abundant in Bambusoideae. A molecular phylogeny of Bambusoideae was established by using the internal transcribed spacer sequence of nuclear ribosomal DNA (ITS) information. The comparison between ITS and Pong-like elements based trees reveals obviously incongruent. The results suggest that 1) there are multiple Pong-like element families in Bambusoideae; 2) a single Pong-like element family could be present in multiple bamboo species; 3) Pong-like elements from the same family from different bamboo species could be more similar than elements from different families in the same bamboo species or closely related species.     

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis

A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.     

Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models,predicted geographic distributions,and climate change effects

Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species.     

Sinapis phylogeny and evolution of glucosinolates and specific nitrile degrading enzymes

Levels of sinalbin (4-hydroxybenzylglucosinolate) and 28 other glucosinolates were determined in leaves and roots of 20 species that were either phylogenetically close to Sinapis alba, Sinapis arvensis, or Sinapis pubescens (tribe Brassiceae, Brassicaceae), or were expected to contain arylalkyl nitrilase activity. Comparison with a molecular phylogenetic tree based on ITS DNA sequences identified two separate occurrences of sinalbin. The first in a group of species related to S. alba (including members of the genera Coincya and Kremeriella); and the second in S. arvensis, nested among sinalbin deficient species. Significant 4-hydroxyphenylacetonitrile degrading enzyme activity was found in both S. alba and S. arvensis, but in S. alba the major product was the corresponding carboxylic acid, while in S. arvensis the major product was the amide. Both investigated enzyme activities, nitrilase and nitrile hydratase, were specific, accepting only certain arylacetonitriles such as 4-hydroxy and 4-methoxyphenylacetonitrile. Only the S. alba enzyme required an oxygen in para position of the substrate, as found in sinalbin. Indole-3-acetonitrile, arylcyanides, and arylpropionitriles were poor substrates. The nitrilase activity of S. alba was quantitatively comparable to that reported in the monocot Sorghum bicolor (believed to be involved in cyanogenic glycoside metabolism). Glucosinolates derived from methionine were found in all Sinapis clades. Glucosinolate patterns suggested a complex evolution of glucosinolates in the investigated species, with several apparent examples of abrupt changes in glucosinolate profiles including chain length variation and appearance of glucosinolates derived from branched-chain amino acids. NMR data for desulfated homosinalbin, 9-methylsulphonylnonylglucosinolate, 3-methylpentylglucosinolate and related glucosinolates are reported, and a facultative connection between sinalbin and specific nitrilases is suggested.     

Continuity versus split and reconstitution: exploring the molecular developmental corollaries of insect eye primordium evolution

Holometabolous insects like Drosophila proceed through two phases of visual system development. The embryonic phase generates simple eyes of the larva. The postembryonic phase produces the adult specific compound eyes during late larval development and pupation. In primitive insects, by contrast, eye development persists seemingly continuously from embryogenesis through the end of postembryogenesis. Comparative literature suggests that the evolutionary transition from continuous to biphasic eye development occurred via transient developmental arrest. This review investigates how the developmental arrest model relates to the gene networks regulating larval and adult eye development in Drosophila, and embryonic compound eye development in primitive insects. Consistent with the developmental arrest model, the available data suggest that the determination of the anlage of the rudimentary Drosophila larval eye is homologous to the embryonic specification of the juvenile compound eye in directly developing insects while the Drosophila compound eye primordium is evolutionarily related to the yet little studied stem cell based postembryonic eye primordium of primitive insects.     

Modes of evolution in a parasite-host interaction: dis-entangling factors determining the evolution of regulated fimbriation in E. coli

Escherichia coli expresses type-I fimbriae; these are protrusions from the outer cell wall and have been identified as a virulence factor. They are also expressed by commensal strains of E. coli although (at any one time) only by a small proportion of the population. The orthodox interpretation of this is that fimbriation is regulated so as (i) to trigger a host-based release of nutrients in the form of inflammation signals by slightly activating host defenses and (ii) while avoiding a full scale inflammatory response. This article presents a number of computer simulations of the evolution of fimbriae to scrutinize the evolutionary plausibility of this orthodox view. It turns out that these simulations suggest a revised interpretation of the fimbriae mediated parasite-host interaction. Rather than being a passive victim the host is actively providing a niche that evolutionary favors less virulent parasites. The article closes with a number of testable predictions of this model.     

Perspectives of genomic diversification and molecular recombination towards R-gene evolution in plants

Plants are under strong evolutionary pressure in developing new and noble R genes to recognize pathogen avirulence (avr) determinants and bring about stable defense for generation after generations. Duplication, sequence variation by mutation, disparity in the length and structure of leucine rich repeats etc., causes tremendous variations within and among R genes in a plant thereby developing diverse recognitional specificity suitable enough for defense against new pathogens. Recent studies on genome sequencing, diversity and population genetics in different plants have thrown new insights on the molecular evolution of these genes. Tandem and segmental duplication are important factors in R gene abundance as inferred from the distribution of major nucleotide binding site-leucine rich repeats (NBS-LRRs) type R-genes in plant genomes. Likewise, R-gene evolution is also thought to be facilitated by cluster formation thereby causing recombination and sequence exchange and resulting in haplotypic diversity. Population studies have further proven that balancing selection is responsible for the maintenance of allelic diversity in R genes. In this review, we emphasize and discuss on improved perspectives towards the molecular mechanisms and selection pressure responsible for the evolution of NBS-LRR class resistance genes in plants.