Tuberculosis Incidence Correlates with Sunshine: An Ecological 28-Year Time Series Study

Background

Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis.

Methods

We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models.

Results

There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001).

Discussion and Conclusion

A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence.     

Health Effects Related to Wind Turbine Noise Exposure: A Systematic Review

Background

Wind turbine noise exposure and suspected health-related effects thereof have attracted substantial attention. Various symptoms such as sleep-related problems, headache, tinnitus and vertigo have been described by subjects suspected of having been exposed to wind turbine noise.

Objective

This review was conducted systematically with the purpose of identifying any reported associations between wind turbine noise exposure and suspected health-related effects.

Data Sources

A search of the scientific literature concerning the health-related effects of wind turbine noise was conducted on PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar and various other Internet sources.

Study Eligibility Criteria

All studies investigating suspected health-related outcomes associated with wind turbine noise exposure were included.

Results

Wind turbines emit noise, including low-frequency noise, which decreases incrementally with increases in distance from the wind turbines. Likewise, evidence of a dose-response relationship between wind turbine noise linked to noise annoyance, sleep disturbance and possibly even psychological distress was present in the literature. Currently, there is no further existing statistically-significant evidence indicating any association between wind turbine noise exposure and tinnitus, hearing loss, vertigo or headache.

Limitations

Selection bias and information bias of differing magnitudes were found to be present in all current studies investigating wind turbine noise exposure and adverse health effects. Only articles published in English, German or Scandinavian languages were reviewed.

Conclusions

Exposure to wind turbines does seem to increase the risk of annoyance and self-reported sleep disturbance in a dose-response relationship. There appears, though, to be a tolerable level of around L_Aeq of 35 dB. Of the many other claimed health effects of wind turbine noise exposure reported in the literature, however, no conclusive evidence could be found. Future studies should focus on investigations aimed at objectively demonstrating whether or not measureable health-related outcomes can be proven to fluctuate depending on exposure to wind turbines.     

Impact of temperature and atmospheric pressure on the incidence of major acute cardiovascular events

Background

The impact of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of various cardiovascular events has been reported internationally. Data about the Dutch situation are limited.

Objectives

We sought to find out a correlation between weather conditions and the incidence of major acute cardiovascular events such as type A acute aortic dissection (AAD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acutely presented abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAA).

Methods

Between January 1998 and February 2010, patients who were admitted to our hospital (Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, the Netherlands) because of AAD (n = 212), AMI (n = 11389) or AAAA (n = 1594) were registered. These data were correlated with the meteorological data provided by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) over the same period.

Results

During the study period, a total number of 11,412 patients were admitted with AMI, 212 patients with AAD and 1593 patients with AAAA. A significant correlation was found between the daily temperature and the number of hospital admissions for AAD. The lower the daily temperature, the higher the incidence of AAD (p = 0.002). Lower temperature was also a predictor of a higher incidence of AMI (p = 0.02). No significant correlation was found between daily temperature and onset of AAAA.

Conclusions

Cold weather is correlated with a higher incidence of AAD and AMI.     

Meteorological Influences on the Incidence of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage – A Single Center Study of 511 Patients

Objective

To assess the potential meteorological influence on the incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Previous studies used inhomogeneous patient groups, insufficient study periods or inappropriate statistics.

Patients and Methods

We analyzed 511 SAH admissions between 2004 and 2012 for which aneurysmal rupture occurred within the Zurich region. The hourly meteorological parameters considered are: surface pressure, 2-m temperature, relative humidity and wind gusts, sunshine, and precipitation. For all parameters we investigate three complementary statistical measures: i) the time evolution from 5 days before to 5 days after the SAH occurrence; ii) the deviation from the 10-year monthly mean; and iii) the change relative to the parameter''s value two days before SAH occurrence. The statistical significance of the results is determined using a Monte Carlo simulation combined with a re-sampling technique (1000×).

Results

Regarding the meteorological parameters considered, no statistically significant signal could be found. The distributions of deviations relative to the climatology and of the changes during the two days prior to SAH events agree with the distributions for the randomly chosen days. The analysis was repeated separately for winter and summer to exclude compensating effects between the seasons.

Conclusion

By using high-quality meteorological data analyzed with a sophisticated and robust statistical method no clearly identifiable meteorological influence for the SAH events considered can be found. Further studies on the influence of the investigated parameters on SAH incidence seem redundant.     

Acetate causes alcohol hangover headache in rats

Background

The mechanism of veisalgia cephalgia or hangover headache is unknown. Despite a lack of mechanistic studies, there are a number of theories positing congeners, dehydration, or the ethanol metabolite acetaldehyde as causes of hangover headache.

Methods

We used a chronic headache model to examine how pure ethanol produces increased sensitivity for nociceptive behaviors in normally hydrated rats.

Results

Ethanol initially decreased sensitivity to mechanical stimuli on the face (analgesia), followed 4 to 6 hours later by inflammatory pain. Inhibiting alcohol dehydrogenase extended the analgesia whereas inhibiting aldehyde dehydrogenase decreased analgesia. Neither treatment had nociceptive effects. Direct administration of acetate increased nociceptive behaviors suggesting that acetate, not acetaldehyde, accumulation results in hangover-like hypersensitivity in our model. Since adenosine accumulation is a result of acetate formation, we administered an adenosine antagonist that blocked hypersensitivity.

Discussion

Our study shows that acetate contributes to hangover headache. These findings provide insight into the mechanism of hangover headache and the mechanism of headache induction.     

Empirical Mode Decomposition and k-Nearest Embedding Vectors for Timely Analyses of Antibiotic Resistance Trends

Background

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available.

Objective

To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems.

Methods

We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels.

Results

The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends.

Conclusion

The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.     

Association of Day Length and Weather Conditions with Physical Activity Levels in Older Community Dwelling People

Background

Weather is a potentially important determinant of physical activity. Little work has been done examining the relationship between weather and physical activity, and potential modifiers of any relationship in older people. We therefore examined the relationship between weather and physical activity in a cohort of older community-dwelling people.

Methods

We analysed prospectively collected cross-sectional activity data from community-dwelling people aged 65 and over in the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland. We correlated seven day triaxial accelerometry data with daily weather data (temperature, day length, sunshine, snow, rain), and a series of potential effect modifiers were tested in mixed models: environmental variables (urban vs rural dwelling, percentage of green space), psychological variables (anxiety, depression, perceived behavioural control), social variables (number of close contacts) and health status measured using the SF-36 questionnaire.

Results

547 participants, mean age 78.5 years, were included in this analysis. Higher minimum daily temperature and longer day length were associated with higher activity levels; these associations remained robust to adjustment for other significant associates of activity: age, perceived behavioural control, number of social contacts and physical function. Of the potential effect modifier variables, only urban vs rural dwelling and the SF-36 measure of social functioning enhanced the association between day length and activity; no variable modified the association between minimum temperature and activity.

Conclusions

In older community dwelling people, minimum temperature and day length were associated with objectively measured activity. There was little evidence for moderation of these associations through potentially modifiable health, environmental, social or psychological variables.     

Drowning and the Influence of Hot Weather

Background

Drowning deaths are devastating and preventable. Public perception does not regard hot weather as a common scenario for drowning deaths. The objective of our study was to test the association between hot weather and drowning risk.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a retrospective case-crossover analysis of all unintentional drowning deaths in Ontario, Canada from 1999 to 2009. Demographic data were obtained from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Weather data were obtained from Environment Canada. We used the pair-matched analytic approach for the case-crossover design to contrast the weather on the date of the drowning with the weather at the same location one week prior (control period).

Results

We identified 1243 drowning deaths. The mean age was 40 years, 82% were male, and most events (71%) occurred in open water. The pair-matched analytic approach indicated that temperatures exceeding 30°C were associated with a 69% increase in the risk of outdoor drowning (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.23–2.25, p = 0.001). For indoor drowning, however, temperatures exceeding 30°C were not associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of drowning (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 0.53–4.21, p = 0.442). Adult men were specifically prone to drown in hot weather (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.19–2.34, p = 0.003) yet an apparent increase in risk extended to both genders and all age groups.

Conclusion

Contrary to popular belief, hot weather rather than cold stormy weather increases the risk of drowning. An awareness of this risk might encourage greater use of drowning prevention strategies known to save lives.     

Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore.

Methods

The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks.

Results

Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.     

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species

Background

Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species.

Methodology

We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS) using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed “weather” models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950–2008). These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year) averages of the same climatic variables.

Conclusions

Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species'' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.     

Effects of Meteorological Factors on Daily Hospital Admissions for Asthma in Adults: A Time-Series Analysis

Background

There is limited evidence for the impacts of meteorological changes on asthma hospital admissions in adults in Shanghai, China.

Objectives

To quantitatively evaluate the short-term effects of daily mean temperature on asthma hospital admissions.

Methods

Daily hospital admissions for asthma and daily mean temperatures between January 2005 and December 2012 were analyzed. After controlling for secular and seasonal trends, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were used to explore the associations between temperature and hospital admissions for asthma.

Results

During the study periods, there were 15,678 hospital admissions for asthma by residents of Shanghai, an average 5.6 per day. Pearson correlation analysis found a significant negative correlation (r = −0.174, P<0.001) between asthma hospitalizations and daily mean temperature (DMT). The DMT effect on asthma increased below the median DMT, with lower temperatures associated with a higher risk of hospital admission for asthma. Generally, the cold effect appeared to be relatively acute, with duration lasting several weeks, while the hot effect was short-term. The relative risk of asthma hospital admissions associated with cold temperature (the 25^th percentile of temperature relative to the median temperature) was 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01∼1.41) at lag0-14. However, warmer temperatures were not associated with asthma hospital admissions.

Conclusions

Cold temperatures may trigger asthmatic attacks. Effective strategies are needed to protect populations at risk from the effects of cold.     

Why Is School Closed Today? Unplanned K-12 School Closures in the United States, 2011–2013

Introduction

We describe characteristics of unplanned school closures (USCs) in the United States over two consecutive academic years during a non-pandemic period to provide context for implementation of school closures during a pandemic.

Methods

From August 1, 2011 through June 30, 2013, daily systematic internet searches were conducted for publicly announced USCs lasting ≥1 day. The reason for closure and the closure dates were recorded. Information on school characteristics was obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics.

Results

During the two-year study period, 20,723 USCs were identified affecting 27,066,426 students. Common causes of closure included weather (79%), natural disasters (14%), and problems with school buildings or utilities (4%). Only 771 (4%) USCs lasted ≥4 school days. Illness was the cause of 212 (1%) USCs; of these, 126 (59%) were related to respiratory illnesses and showed seasonal variation with peaks in February 2012 and January 2013.

Conclusions

USCs are common events resulting in missed school days for millions of students. Illness causes few USCs compared with weather and natural disasters. Few communities have experience with prolonged closures for illness.     

Reaction Time and Incident Cancer: 25 Years of Follow-Up of Study Members in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey

Objectives

To investigate the association of reaction time with cancer incidence.

Methods

6900 individuals aged 18 to 94 years who participated in the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey in 1984/1985 and were followed for a cancer registration for 25 years.

Results

Disease surveillance gave rise to 1015 cancer events from all sites. In general, there was essentially no clear pattern of association for either simple or choice reaction time with cancer of all sites combined, nor specific malignancies. However, selected associations were found for lung cancer, colorectal cancer and skin cancer.

Conclusions

In the present study, reaction time and its components were not generally related to cancer risk.     

Public Hygiene Campaign in Denmark during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Had No Effect on Hospitalization Rate of Communicable Diseases in Children

Background

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the Danish National board of Health carried out massive public hygiene campaigns to limit spread of disease. We aimed to investigate whether this resulted in lower incidences of communicable diseases in the paediatric population.

Methods

The study compared annual hospitalization rates for childhood infections from 2005 to 2011.

Results

Admission rates for infections were higher during the year of the pandemic compared to the rest of the period.

Conclusion

There were no indications of a preventive effect by the hygiene campaign on incidence of severe common childhood infections.     

Cognitive Reactivity,Implicit Associations,and the Incidence of Depression: A Two-Year Prospective Study

Background

Cognitive reactivity to sad mood is a vulnerability marker of depression. Implicit self-depressed associations are related to depression status and reduced remission probability. It is unknown whether these cognitive vulnerabilities precede the first onset of depression.

Aim

To test the predictive value of cognitive reactivity and implicit self-depressed associations for the incidence of depressive disorders.

Methods

Prospective cohort study of 834 never-depressed individuals, followed over a two-year period. The predictive value of cognitive reactivity and implicit self-depressed associations for the onset of depressive disorders was assessed using binomial logistic regression. The multivariate model corrected for baseline levels of subclinical depressive symptoms, neuroticism, for the presence of a history of anxiety disorders, for family history of depressive or anxiety disorders, and for the incidence of negative life events.

Results

As single predictors, both cognitive reactivity and implicit self-depressed associations were significantly associated with depression incidence. In the multivariate model, cognitive reactivity was significantly associated with depression incidence, together with baseline depressive symptoms and the number of negative life events, whereas implicit self-depressed associations were not.

Conclusion

Cognitive reactivity to sad mood is associated with the incidence of depressive disorders, also when various other depression-related variables are controlled for. Implicit self-depressed associations predicted depression incidence in a bivariate test, but not when controlling for other predictors.     

The Association between Cold Spells and Pediatric Outpatient Visits for Asthma in Shanghai, China

Background

Asthma is a serious global health problem. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between cold spells and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma.

Objective

To examine the association between cold spells and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma in Shanghai, China.

Methods

We collected daily data on pediatric outpatient visits for asthma, mean temperature, relative humidity, and ozone from Shanghai between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2009. We defined cold spells as four or more consecutive days with temperature below the 5^th percentile of temperature during 2007–2009. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the impact of temperature on pediatric outpatient visits for asthma in cold seasons during 2007 and 2009. We examined the effect of cold spells on asthma compared with non-cold spell days.

Results

There was a significant relationship between cold temperatures and pediatric outpatient visits for asthma. The cold effects on children''s asthma were observed at different lags. The lower the temperatures, the higher the risk for asthma attacks among children.

Conclusion

Cold temperatures, particularly cold spells, significantly increase the risk of pediatric outpatient visits for asthma. The findings suggest that asthma children need to be better protected from cold effects in winter.     

Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Ni?o Southern Oscillation,Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico,Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis

Background

The mosquito-borne dengue viruses are a major public health problem throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Changes in temperature and precipitation have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle and may thus play a role in changing incidence levels. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a multiyear climate driver of local temperature and precipitation worldwide. Previous studies have reported varying degrees of association between ENSO and dengue incidence.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed the relationship between ENSO, local weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand using wavelet analysis to identify time- and frequency-specific association. In Puerto Rico, ENSO was transiently associated with temperature and dengue incidence on multiyear scales. However, only local precipitation and not temperature was associated with dengue on multiyear scales. In Thailand, ENSO was associated with both temperature and precipitation. Although precipitation was associated with dengue incidence, the association was nonstationary and likely spurious. In Mexico, no association between any of the variables was observed on the multiyear scale.

Conclusions

The evidence for a relationship between ENSO, climate, and dengue incidence presented here is weak. While multiyear climate variability may play a role in endemic interannual dengue dynamics, we did not find evidence of a strong, consistent relationship in any of the study areas. The role of ENSO may be obscured by local climate heterogeneity, insufficient data, randomly coincident outbreaks, and other, potentially stronger, intrinsic factors regulating transmission dynamics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Incidence of TB and HIV in Prospectively Followed Household Contacts of TB Index Patients in South Africa

Objective

To report the incidence rates of TB and HIV in household contacts of index patients diagnosed with TB.

Design

A prospective cohort study in the Matlosana sub-district of North West Province, South Africa.

Methods

Contacts of index TB patients received TB and HIV testing after counseling at their first household visit and were then followed up a year later, in 2010. TB or HIV diagnoses that occurred during the period were determined.

Results

For 2,377 household contacts, the overall observed TB incidence rate was 1.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 0.9–1.9/100py) and TB incidence for individuals who were HIV-infected and HIV seronegative at baseline was 5.4/100py (95% CI 2.9–9.0/100py) and 0.7/100py (95% CI 0.3–1.4/100py), respectively. The overall HIV incidence rate was 2.2/100py (95% CI 1.3–8.4/100py).

Conclusions

In the year following a household case finding visit when household contacts were tested for TB and HIV, the incidence rate of both active TB and HIV infection was found to be extremely high. Clearly, implementing proven strategies to prevent HIV acquisition and preventing TB transmission and progression to disease remains a priority in settings such as South Africa.