The Effect of Simulating Different Intermediate Host Snail Species on the Link between Water Temperature and Schistosomiasis Risk

Introduction

A number of studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on schistosomiasis risk. The importance of considering different species of intermediate host snails separately has never previously been explored.

Methods

An agent-based model of water temperature and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics and Schistosoma mansoni transmission was parameterised to two additional species of snail: B. glabrata and B. alexandrina.

Results

Simulated B. alexandrina populations had lower minimum and maximum temperatures for survival than B. pfeifferi populations (12.5–29.5°C vs. 14.0–31.5°C). B. glabrata populations survived over a smaller range of temperatures than either B. pfeifferi or B. alexandrina (17.0°C–29.5°C). Infection risk peaked at 16.5°C, 25.0°C and 19.0°C respectively when B. pfeifferi, B. glabrata and B. alexandrina were simulated. For all species, infection risk increased sharply once a minimum temperature was reached.

Conclusions

The results from all three species suggest that infection risk may increase dramatically with small increases in temperature in areas at or near the currents limits of schistosome transmission. The effect of small increases in temperature in areas where schistosomiasis is currently found will depend both on current temperatures and on the species of snail acting as intermediate host(s) in the area. In most areas where B. pfeifferi is the host, infection risk is likely to decrease. In cooler areas where B. glabrata is the host, infection risk may increase slightly. In cooler areas where B. alexandrina is the host, infection risk may more than double with only 2°C increase in temperature. Our results show that it is crucial to consider the species of intermediate host when attempting to predict the effects of climate change on schistosomiasis.     

The Effect of Increasing Water Temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni Transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi Population Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modelling Study

Introduction

There is increasing interest in the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Little is known, however, about the likely effects of increasing water-body temperatures on transmission.

Methods

We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma and intermediate host snail life-cycles, parameterised using data from S. mansoni and Biomphalaria pfeifferi laboratory and field-based observations. Infection risk is calculated as the number of cercariae in the model, adjusted for their probability of causing infection.

Results

The number of snails in the model is approximately constant between 15–31°C. Outside this range, snail numbers drop sharply, and the snail population cannot survive outside the range 14–32°C. Mean snail generation time decreases with increasing temperature from 176 days at 14°C to 46 days at 26°C. Human infection risk is highest between 16–18°C and 1 pm and 6–10 pm in calm water, and 20–25°C and 12–4 pm in flowing water. Infection risk increases sharply when temperatures increase above the minimum necessary for sustained transmission.

Conclusions

The model suggests that, in areas where S. mansoni is already endemic, warming of the water at transmission sites will have differential effects on both snails and parasites depending on abiotic properties of the water-body. Snail generation times will decrease in most areas, meaning that snail populations will recover faster from natural population reductions and from snail-control efforts. We suggest a link between the ecological properties of transmission sites and infection risk which could significantly affect the outcomes of interventions designed to alter water contact behaviour – proposing that such interventions are more likely to reduce infection levels at river locations than lakes, where infection risk remains high for longer. In cooler areas where snails are currently found, increasing temperatures may significantly increase infection risk, potentially leading to new, high-intensity foci of infection.     

Seasonal rainfall and runoff promote coral disease on an inshore reef

Background

Declining water quality coupled with the effects of climate change are rapidly increasing coral diseases on reefs worldwide, although links between coral diseases and environmental parameters remain poorly understood. This is the first study to document a correlation between coral disease and water quality on an inshore reef.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The temporal dynamics of the coral disease atramentous necrosis (AN) was investigated over two years within inshore populations of Montipora aequituberculata in the central Great Barrier Reef, in relation to rainfall, salinity, temperature, water column chlorophyll a, suspended solids, sedimentation, dissolved organic carbon, and particulate nitrogen, phosphorus and organic carbon. Overall, mean AN prevalence was 10-fold greater during summer wet seasons than winter dry seasons. A 2.5-fold greater mean disease abundance was detected during the summer of 2009 (44 ± SE 6.7 diseased colonies per 25 m²), when rainfall was 1.6-fold greater than in the summer of 2008. Two water quality parameters explained 67% of the variance in monthly disease prevalence in a Partial Least Squares regression analysis; disease abundance was negatively correlated with salinity (R2 = −0.6) but positively correlated with water column particulate organic carbon concentration (R2 = 0.32). Seasonal temperature patterns were also positively correlated with disease abundance, but explained only a small portion of the variance.

Conclusions/Significance

The results suggest that rainfall and associated runoff may facilitate seasonal disease outbreaks, potentially by reducing host fitness or by increasing pathogen virulence due to higher availability of nutrients and organic matter. In the future, rainfall and seawater temperatures are likely to increase due to climate change which may lead to decreased health of inshore reefs.     

Use of Geospatial Modeling to Predict Schistosoma mansoni Prevalence in Nyanza Province,Kenya

Background

Schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease that affects over 200 million people, can lead to significant morbidity and mortality; distribution of single dose preventative chemotherapy significantly reduces disease burden. Implementation of control programs is dictated by disease prevalence rates, which are determined by costly and labor intensive screening of stool samples. Because ecological and human factors are known to contribute to the focal distribution of schistosomiasis, we sought to determine if specific environmental and geographic factors could be used to accurately predict Schistosoma mansoni prevalence in Nyanza Province, Kenya.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A spatial mixed model was fit to assess associations with S. mansoni prevalence in schools. Data on S. mansoni prevalence and GPS location of the school were obtained from 457 primary schools. Environmental and geographic data layers were obtained from publicly available sources. Spatial models were constructed using ArcGIS 10 and R 2.13.0. Lower S.mansoni prevalence was associated with further distance (km) to Lake Victoria, higher day land surface temperature (LST), and higher monthly rainfall totals. Altitude, night LST, human influence index, normalized difference vegetation index, soil pH, soil texture, soil bulk density, soil water capacity, population, and land use variables were not significantly associated with S. mansoni prevalence.

Conclusions

Our model suggests that there are specific environmental and geographic factors that influence S. mansoni prevalence rates in Nyanza Province, Kenya. Validation and use of schistosomiasis prevalence maps will allow control programs to plan and prioritize efficient control campaigns to decrease schistosomiasis burden.     

Effects of temperature on sound production and auditory abilities in the Striped Raphael catfish Platydoras armatulus (Family Doradidae)

Background

Sound production and hearing sensitivity of ectothermic animals are affected by the ambient temperature. This is the first study investigating the influence of temperature on both sound production and on hearing abilities in a fish species, namely the neotropical Striped Raphael catfish Platydoras armatulus.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Doradid catfishes produce stridulation sounds by rubbing the pectoral spines in the shoulder girdle and drumming sounds by an elastic spring mechanism which vibrates the swimbladder. Eight fish were acclimated for at least three weeks to 22°, then to 30° and again to 22°C. Sounds were recorded in distress situations when fish were hand-held. The stridulation sounds became shorter at the higher temperature, whereas pulse number, maximum pulse period and sound pressure level did not change with temperature. The dominant frequency increased when the temperature was raised to 30°C and the minimum pulse period became longer when the temperature decreased again. The fundamental frequency of drumming sounds increased at the higher temperature. Using the auditory evoked potential (AEP) recording technique, the hearing thresholds were tested at six different frequencies from 0.1 to 4 kHz. The temporal resolution was determined by analyzing the minimum resolvable click period (0.3–5 ms). The hearing sensitivity was higher at the higher temperature and differences were more pronounced at higher frequencies. In general, latencies of AEPs in response to single clicks became shorter at the higher temperature, whereas temporal resolution in response to double-clicks did not change.

Conclusions/Significance

These data indicate that sound characteristics as well as hearing abilities are affected by temperatures in fishes. Constraints imposed on hearing sensitivity at different temperatures cannot be compensated even by longer acclimation periods. These changes in sound production and detection suggest that acoustic orientation and communication are affected by temperature changes in the neotropical catfish P. armatulus.     

Effect of temperature on cystic fibrosis lung disease and infections: a replicated cohort study

Background

Progressive lung disease accounts for the majority of morbidity and mortality observed in cystic fibrosis (CF). Beyond secondhand smoke exposure and socio-economic status, the effect of specific environmental factors on CF lung function is largely unknown.

Methods

Multivariate regression was used to assess correlation between specific environmental factors, the presence of pulmonary pathogens, and variation in lung function using subjects enrolled in the U.S. CF Twin and Sibling Study (CFTSS: n = 1378). Significant associations were tested for replication in the U.S. CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFF: n = 16439), the Australian CF Data Registry (ACFDR: n = 1801), and prospectively ascertained subjects from Australia/New Zealand (ACFBAL: n = 167).

Results

In CFTSS subjects, the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (OR = 1.06 per °F; p<0.001) was associated with warmer annual ambient temperatures. This finding was independently replicated in the CFF (1.02; p<0.001), ACFDR (1.05; p = 0.002), and ACFBAL (1.09; p = 0.003) subjects. Warmer temperatures (−0.34 points per °F; p = 0.005) and public insurance (−6.43 points; p<0.001) were associated with lower lung function in the CFTSS subjects. These findings were replicated in the CFF subjects (temperature: −0.31; p<0.001; insurance: −9.11; p<0.001) and similar in the ACFDR subjects (temperature: −0.23; p = 0.057). The association between temperature and lung function was minimally influenced by P. aeruginosa. Similarly, the association between temperature and P. aeruginosa was largely independent of lung function.

Conclusions

Ambient temperature is associated with prevalence of P. aeruginosa and lung function in four independent samples of CF patients from two continents.     

Accuracy of Urine Circulating Cathodic Antigen (CCA) Test for Schistosoma mansoni Diagnosis in Different Settings of C?te d'Ivoire

Background

Promising results have been reported for a urine circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) test for the diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni. We assessed the accuracy of a commercially available CCA cassette test (designated CCA-A) and an experimental formulation (CCA-B) for S. mansoni diagnosis.

Methodology

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in three settings of Côte d''Ivoire: settings A and B are endemic for S. mansoni, whereas S. haematobium co-exists in setting C. Overall, 446 children, aged 8–12 years, submitted multiple stool and urine samples. For S. mansoni diagnosis, stool samples were examined with triplicate Kato-Katz, whereas urine samples were tested with CCA-A. The first stool and urine samples were additionally subjected to an ether-concentration technique and CCA-B, respectively. Urine samples were examined for S. haematobium using a filtration method, and for microhematuria using Hemastix dipsticks.

Principal Findings

Considering nine Kato-Katz as diagnostic ‘gold’ standard, the prevalence of S. mansoni in setting A, B and C was 32.9%, 53.1% and 91.8%, respectively. The sensitivity of triplicate Kato-Katz from the first stool and a single CCA-A test was 47.9% and 56.3% (setting A), 73.9% and 69.6% (setting B), and 94.2% and 89.6% (setting C). The respective sensitivity of a single CCA-B was 10.4%, 29.9% and 75.0%. The ether-concentration technique showed a low sensitivity for S. mansoni diagnosis (8.3–41.0%). The specificity of CCA-A was moderate (76.9–84.2%); CCA-B was high (96.7–100%). The likelihood of a CCA-A color reaction increased with higher S. mansoni fecal egg counts (odds ratio: 1.07, p<0.001). A concurrent S. haematobium infection or the presence of microhematuria did not influence the CCA-A test results for S. mansoni diagnosis.

Conclusion/Significance

CCA-A showed similar sensitivity than triplicate Kato-Katz for S. mansoni diagnosis with no cross-reactivity to S. haematobium and microhematuria. The low sensitivity of CCA-B in our study area precludes its use for S. mansoni diagnosis.     

Floral thermogenesis of three species of Hydnora (Hydnoraceae) in Africa

Background and Aims

Floral thermogenesis occurs in at least 12 families of ancient seed plants. Some species show very high rates of respiration through the alternative pathway, and some are thermoregulatory, with increasing respiration at decreasing ambient temperature. This study assesses the intensity and regulation of respiration in three species of African Hydnora that represent the Hydnoraceae, an unusual family of holoparasitic plants from arid environments.

Methods

Long-term respirometry (CO₂ production) and thermometry were carried out on intact flowers of H. africana, H. abyssinica and H. esculenta in the field, and short-term measurements were made on floral parts during the protogynous flowering sequence.

Key Results

For H. africana, there was no temperature elevation in either the osmophores or the gynoecial chamber in any phase, and mass-specific respiration rates of the flower parts were low (maximum 8·3 nmol CO₂ g⁻¹ s⁻¹ in osmophore tissue). Respiration tracked ambient and floral temperatures, eliminating the possibility of the inverse relationship expected in thermoregulatory flowers. Hydnora abyssinica flowers had higher respiration (maximum 27·5 nmol g⁻¹ s⁻¹ in the osmophores) and a slight elevation of osmophore temperature (maximum 2·8 °C) in the female stage. Respiration by gynoecial tissue was similar to that of osmophores in both species, but there was no measurable elevation of gynoecial chamber temperature. Gynoecial chamber temperature of H. esculenta could reach 3·8 °C above ambient, but there are no respiration data available. Antheral tissue respiration was maximal in the male phase (4·8 nmol g⁻¹ s⁻¹ in H. africana and 10·3 nmol g⁻¹ s⁻¹ in H. abyssinica), but it did not raise the antheral ring temperature, which showed that thermogenesis is not a by-product of pollen maturation or release.

Conclusions

The exceptionally low thermogenesis in Hydnora appears to be associated with scent production and possibly gynoecial development, but has little direct benefit to beetle pollinators.Key words: Pollination biology, Hydnora, thermogenesis, respiration rate, temperature, flowers, insects     

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity of Pseudoroegneria spicata: response of stomatal density, leaf area and biomass to changes in water supply and increased temperature

Background and Aims

Changes in rainfall and temperature brought about through climate change may affect plant species distribution and community composition of grasslands. The primary objective of this study was to test how manipulation of water and temperature would influence the plasticity of stomatal density and leaf area of bluebunch wheatgrass, Pseudoroegneria spicata. It was hypothesized that: (1) an increased water supply will increase biomass and leaf area and decrease stomatal density, while a reduced water supply will cause the opposite effect; (2) an increase in temperature will reduce biomass and leaf area and increase stomatal density; and (3) the combinations of water and temperature treatments can be aligned along a stress gradient and that stomatal density will be highest at high stress.

Methods

The three water supply treatments were (1) ambient, (2) increased approx. 30 % more than ambient through weekly watering and (3) decreased approx. 30 % less than ambient by rain shades. The two temperature treatments were (1) ambient and (2) increased approx. 1–3 °C by using open-top chambers. At the end of the second experimental growing season, above-ground biomass was harvested, oven-dried and weighed, tillers from bluebunch wheatgrass plants sampled, and the abaxial stomatal density and leaf area of tillers were measured.

Key Results

The first hypothesis was partially supported – reducing water supply increased stomatal density, but increasing water supply reduced leaf area. The second hypothesis was rejected. Finally, the third hypothesis could not be fully supported – rather than a linear response there appears to be a parabolic stomatal density response to stress.

Conclusions

Overall, the abaxial stomatal density and leaf area of bluebunch wheatgrass were plastic in their response to water and temperature manipulations. Although bluebunch wheatgrass has the potential to adapt to changing climate, the grass is limited in its ability to respond to a combination of reduced water and increased temperature.Key words: Bluebunch wheatgrass, Pseudoroegneria spicata, biomass, climate change, grassland, open top chamber, rain shade, stomata     

Using a model-based framework for analysing genetic diversity during germination and heterotrophic growth of Medicago truncatula

Background and Aims

The framework provided by an emergence model was used: (1) for phenotyping germination and heterotrophic growth of Medicago truncatula in relation to two major environmental factors, temperature and water potential; and (2) to evaluate the extent of genetic differences in emergence-model parameters.

Methods

Eight cultivars and natural accessions of M. trunculata were studied. Germination was recorded from 5 to 30 °C and from 0 to −0·75 MPa, and seedling growth from 10 to 20 °C.

Key Results

Thermal time to reach 50 % germination was very short (15 °Cd) and almost stable between genotypes, while base temperature (2–3 °C) and base water potential for germination (−0·7 to −1·3 MPa) varied between genotypes. Only 35 °Cd after germination were required to reach 30 mm hypocotyl length with significant differences among genotypes. Base temperature for elongation varied from 5·5 to 7·5 °C. Low temperatures induced a general shortening of the seedling, with some genotypes more responsive than others. No relationship with initial seed mass or seed reserve distribution was observed, which might have explained differences between genotypes and the effects of low temperatures.

Conclusions

The study provides a set of reference values for M. trunculata users. The use of the ecophysiological model allows comparison of these values between such non-crop species and other crops. It has enabled phenotypic variability in response to environmental conditions related to the emergence process to be identified. The model will allow simulation of emergence differences between genotypes in a range of environments using these parameter values. Genomic tools available for the model species M. trunculata will make it possible to analyse the genetic and molecular determinants of these differences.Key words: Core collection, emergence, Medicago truncatula, modelling, seed, temperature, water potential     

Oral administration of γ-aminobutyric acid affects heat production in a hot environment in resting humans

Background

Central administration of γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) induces lower body temperature in animals in hot ambient air. However, it is still unknown whether oral GABA administration affects temperature regulation at rest in a hot environment in humans. Therefore, in the present study, we specifically hypothesized that systemic administration of GABA in humans would induce hypothermia in a hot environment and that this response would be observed in association with decreased heat production.

Methods

Eight male participants drank a 200-ml sports drink with 1 g of GABA (trial G) or without GABA (trial C), then rested for 30 minutes in a sitting position in a hot environment (ambient air temperature 33°C, relative humidity 50%).

Results

We found that changes in esophageal temperature from before drinking the sports drink were lower in trial G than in trial C (-0.046 ± 0.079°C vs 0.001 ± 0.063°C; P < 0.05), with lower heat production calculated by oxygen consumption (41 ± 5 W/m² vs 47 ± 8 W/m²; P < 0.05).

Conclusions

In this study, we have demonstrated that a single oral administration of GABA induced a larger decrease in body core temperature compared to a control condition during rest in a hot environment and that this response was concomitant with a decrease in total heat production.     

Pushed to the limit: consequences of climate change for the Araucariaceae: a relictual rain forest family

Background and Aims

Under predicted climate change scenarios, increased temperatures are likely to predispose trees to leaf and other tissue damage, resulting in plant death and contraction of already narrow distribution ranges in many relictual species. The effects of predicted upward temperatures may be further exacerbated by changes in rainfall patterns and damage caused by frosts on trees that have been insufficiently cold-hardened. The Araucariaceae is a relictual family and the seven species found in Australia have limited natural distributions characterized by low frost intensity and frequency, and warm summer temperatures. The temperature limits for these species were determined in order to help understand how such species will fare in a changing climate.

Methods

Experiments were conducted using samples from representative trees of the Araucariaceae species occurring in Australia, Agathis (A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. robusta), Arauacaria (A. bidwilli, A. cunninghamii and A. heterophylla) and Wollemia nobilis. Samples were collected from plants grown in a common garden environment. Lower and higher temperature limits were determined by subjecting detached winter-hardened leaves to temperatures from 0 to –17 °C and summer-exposed leaves to 25 to 63 °C, then measuring the efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) and visually rating leaf damage. The exotherm, a sharp rise in temperature indicating the point of ice nucleation within the cells of the leaf, was measured on detached leaves of winter-hardened and summer temperature-exposed leaves.

Key Results

Lower temperature limits (indicated by FT₅₀, the temperature at which PSII efficiency is 50 %, and LT₅₀ the temperature at which 50 % visual leaf damage occurred) were approx. –5·5 to –7·5 °C for A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla, approx. –7 to –9 °C for A. robusta, A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and –10·5 to –11 °C for W. nobilis. High temperature damage began at 47·5 °C for W. nobilis, and occurred in the range 48·5–52 °C for A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and in the range 50·5–53·5 °C for A. robusta, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla. Winter-hardened leaves had ice nucleation temperatures of –5·5 °C or lower, with W. nobilis the lowest at –6·8 °C. All species had significantly higher ice nucleation temperatures in summer, with A. atropurpurea and A. heterophylla forming ice in the leaf at temperatures >3 °C higher in summer than in winter. Wollemia nobilis had lower FT₅₀ and LT₅₀ values than its ice nucleation temperature, indicating that the species has a degree of ice tolerance.

Conclusions

While lower temperature limits in the Australian Araucariaceae are generally unlikely to affect their survival in wild populations during normal winters, unseasonal frosts may have devastating effects on tree survival. Extreme high temperatures are not common in the areas of natural occurrence, but upward temperature shifts, in combination with localized radiant heating, may increase the heat experienced within a canopy by at least 10 °C and impact on tree survival, and may contribute to range contraction. Heat stress may explain why many landscape plantings of W. nobilis have failed in hotter areas of Australia.     

Prevalence of psychological distress in elderly hypertension patients in primary care

Background

Recent guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention advocate the importance of psychological risk factors, as they contribute to the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. However, most previous research on psychological distress and cardiovascular factors has focused on selected populations with cardiovascular disease.

Aim

The primary aim was to determine the prevalence of depression, anxiety, and Type D personality in elderly primary care patients with hypertension. Secondary aim was to examine the relation between elevated systolic blood pressure and depression, anxiety, and Type D personality.

Design and Setting

A cross-sectional study in primary care practices located in the south of the Netherlands.

Method

Primary care hypertension patients (N = 605), between 60 and 85 years (45 % men, mean age = 70 ± 6.6), were recruited for this study. All patients underwent a structured interview including validated self-report questionnaires to assess depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), and Type D personality (DS14) as well as blood pressure assessment.

Results and Conclusion

Depression was prevalent in 5 %, anxiety in 5 %, and Type D personality in 8 %. None of the distress measures were associated with elevated systolic blood pressure of >160 mmHg (all p-values >0.05). This study showed no relation between psychological distress and elevated systolic blood pressure in elderly primary care patients with hypertension.     

Turning up the Heat: Increasing Temperature and Coral Bleaching at the High Latitude Coral Reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands

Background

Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos.

Methodology/ Principal Findings

We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900–2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups.

Conclusions/ Significance

In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008–2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900–2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.     

Evaluation of mammalian and intermediate host surveillance methods for detecting schistosomiasis reemergence in southwest China

Background

Schistosomiasis has reemerged in China, threatening schistosomiasis elimination efforts. Surveillance methods that can identify locations where schistosomiasis has reemerged are needed to prevent the further spread of infections.

Methods and Principal Findings

We tested humans, cows, water buffalo and the intermediate host snail, Oncomelania hupensis, for Schistosoma japonicum infection, assessed snail densities and extracted regional surveillance records in areas where schistosomiasis reemerged in Sichuan province. We then evaluated the ability of surveillance methods to identify villages where human infections were present. Human infections were detected in 35 of the 53 villages surveyed (infection prevalence: 0 to 43%), including 17 of 28 villages with no prior evidence of reemergence. Bovine infections were detected in 23 villages (infection prevalence: 0 to 65%) and snail infections in one village. Two common surveillance methods, acute schistosomiasis case reports and surveys for S. japonicum-infected snails, grossly underestimated the number of villages where human infections were present (sensitivity 1% and 3%, respectively). Screening bovines for S. japonicum and surveys for the presence of O. hupensis had modest sensitivity (59% and 69% respectively) and specificity (67% and 44%, respectively). Older adults and bovine owners were at elevated risk of infection. Testing only these high-risk human populations yielded sensitivities of 77% and 71%, respectively.

Conclusions

Human and bovine schistosomiasis were widespread in regions where schistosomiasis had reemerged but acute schistosomiasis and S. japonicum-infected snails were rare and, therefore, poor surveillance targets. Until more efficient, sensitive surveillance strategies are developed, direct, targeted parasitological testing of high-risk human populations should be considered to monitor for schistosomiasis reemergence.     

Germination responses to temperature and water potential in Jatropha curcas seeds: a hydrotime model explains the difference between dormancy expression and dormancy induction at different incubation temperatures

Background and Aims

Jatropha curcas is a drought-resistant tree whose seeds are a good source of oil that can be used for producing biodiesel. A successful crop establishment depends on a rapid and uniform germination of the seed. In this work we aimed to characterize the responses of J. curcas seeds to temperature and water availability, using thermal time and hydrotime analysis,

Methods

Thermal and hydrotime analysis was performed on germination data obtained from the incubation of seeds at different temperatures and at different water potentials.

Key Results

Base and optimum temperatures were 14·4 and 30 °C, respectively. Approximately 20 % of the seed population displayed absolute dormancy and part of it displayed relative dormancy which was progressively expressed in further fractions when incubation temperatures departed from 25 °C. The thermal time model, but not the hydrotime model, failed to describe adequately final germination percentages at temperatures other than 25 °C. The hydrotime constant, θ_H, was reduced when the incubation temperature was increased up to 30 °C, the base water potential for 50 % germination,Ψ_b(50), was less negative at 20 and 30 °C than at 25 °C, indicating either expression or induction of dormancy. At 20 °C this less negative Ψ_b(50) explained satisfactorily the germination curves obtained at all water potentials, while at 30 °C it had to be corrected towards even less negative values to match observed curves at water potentials below 0. Hence, Ψ_b(50) appeared to have been further displaced to less negative values as exposure to 30 °C was prolonged by osmoticum. These results suggest expression of dormancy at 20 °C and induction of secondary dormancy above 25 °C. This was confirmed by an experiment showing that inhibition of germination imposed by temperatures higher than 30 °C, but not that imposed at 20 °C, is a permanent effect.

Conclusions

This study revealed (a) the extremely narrow thermal range within which dormancy problems (either through expression or induction of dormancy) may not be encountered; and (b) the high sensitivity displayed by these seeds to water shortage. In addition, this work is the first one in which temperature effects on dormancy expression could be discriminated from those on dormancy induction using a hydrotime analysis.     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Asthma prevalence associated with geographical latitude and regional insolation in the United States of America and Australia

Background

It has been proposed that vitamin D deficiency may be responsible for an increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases and asthma worldwide. Human ability to generate physiologically required quantities of vitamin D through sun exposure is decreasing with increasing geographical latitude.

Objectives

Considering that vitamin D deficiency is usually due to lack of outdoor sun exposure, this study is designed to test the hypothesis that a higher prevalence of asthma should be expected at high relative to low geographical latitudes.

Methods

Linear regression analyses are performed on asthma prevalence in the U.S. adult population vs. geographical latitude, insolation, air temperature, and air pollution (PM_2.5) for 97 major metropolitan/micropolitan statistical areas of the continental United States of America and on general population asthma prevalence vs. geographical latitude in eight metropolitan areas of Australia.

Results

A 10° change in geographical latitude from southern to northern regions of the Eastern Seaboard is associated with a 2% increase in adult asthma prevalence (p<0.001). Total insolation in winter months is almost as strong as latitude in its ability to explain the observed spatial variation in the prevalence of asthma (r² = 0.43; p<0.001). Similar results are obtained using the Australian data (r² = 0.73; p<0.01), suggesting a consistent association between the latitude/insolation and asthma prevalence worldwide.

Conclusions

The results of this study suggest that, as a known modulator of the immune response closely linked with the geographical latitude and erythemal UV irradiation, vitamin D may play an important role in the development/exacerbation of asthma.     

Levels and trends in cardiovascular risk factors and drug treatment in 4837 elderly Dutch myocardial infarction patients between 2002 and 2006

Background

It is important to gain insight into opportunities for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Our aim was to investigate levels and trends in cardiovascular risk factors and drug treatment in Dutch post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients between 2002 and 2006 and to make comparisons with the EUROASPIRE surveys (1999–2007).

Methods

We analysed data from 4837 post-MI patients (aged 69 years, 78% men) from 32 Dutch hospitals, using baseline cross-sectional data from the Alpha Omega Trial.

Results

Between 2002 and 2006, significant declines were found in the prevalence of smoking (23% to 16%, p < 0.001), hypercholesterolaemia (≥5 mmol/l; 54% to 27%, p < 0.0001) and hypertension (≥140/90 mmHg; 58% to 48%, p < 0.001). The prevalence of antithrombotic drugs was high (97%). The prevalence of lipid-modifying drugs and antihypertensives was high, and increased (74% to 90%, p < 0.0001 and 82% to 93%, p < 0.001, respectively). The prevalence of obesity (27%) was high in 2002 and decreased to 24% in 2006, albeit not significantly. Diabetes prevalence was high and increased between 2002 and 2006 (18% to 22%, p = 0.02). In comparison with EUROASPIRE patients, who were on average 8–10 years younger, our study in 2006 included patients with lower levels of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes and lower use of antiplatelets and β-blockers, but similar levels of lipid-modifying drugs.

Conclusions

This study showed that older Dutch post-MI patients were adequately treated with drugs, and that risk factors reached lower levels than in the younger EUROASPIRE patients. However, there is room for improvement in diet and lifestyle, given the high prevalence of smoking, obesity, and diabetes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12471-012-0248-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.