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1.
For long‐lived animals, maternal age and breeding experience can vary widely and affect offspring survival and recruitment probabilities. In addition, these vital rates may be influenced by annual variation in environmental conditions. We evaluated various hypotheses regarding how offspring survival and recruitment probabilities vary as functions of maternal characteristics and oceanographic conditions, using 25 years of data from a study of individually‐marked Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We predicted that survival and recruitment would be positively related to maternal age and experience up to some threshold value and considered three hypothesized shapes for the relationship beyond the threshold age (steadily increasing, pseudo‐threshold, or decreasing). We predicted an inverse relationship between maternal age at first reproduction and offspring survival and recruitment probabilities. We predicted that sea‐ice extent, which positively influences primary productivity, would be positively related to annual recruitment probabilities. Results revealed contrasting influences of maternal age on probabilities of survival and recruitment of young. Survival rate was best modeled by a pseudo‐threshold relationship with maternal age, e.g. in 1999, survival rate was estimated as 0.61, 0.69 and 0.72, respectively, for seals born to 6‐, 14‐ and 22‐yr‐old mothers. In contrast, estimated recruitment probability was highest for seals born to young mothers, e.g. recruitment probability for a 7‐yr‐old who had not yet had a pup was estimated as 0.51 vs 0.30, respectively, if she was born to a 6‐ versus a 14‐yr‐old mother. The combined results for offspring survival and recruitment suggest countervailing selection where genotypes favored for reproductive success are generally selected against as juveniles, resulting in high recruitment probabilities for individuals that had low juvenile survival rates. Finally, we found support for our prediction that oceanographic conditions affected annual recruitment rates, but not survival rates. Specifically, annual recruitment probability was positively related to the sea‐ice extent in September of the previous year.  相似文献   

2.
We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) in four regional populations using photoidentification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727–0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827–0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946–0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.  相似文献   

3.
Spatial variation in vital rates can affect the dynamics and persistence of a population. We evaluated the prediction that age-specific probabilities of survival and first reproduction for Weddell seals would vary as a function of birth location in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multi-state mark–resight models and 25 years of data to estimate demographic rates for female seals. We predicted that probabilities of survival and first reproduction would be higher for seals born at near-shore colonies or more southerly-located colonies with consistent ice conditions. Contrary to predictions, results revealed higher age-specific probabilities of first reproduction at offshore colonies relative to near-shore colonies and no spatial variation in survival rates. For 7-year old females (average age at 1st reproduction=7.6 years old) born at offshore colonies to mothers aged 10.8 years (average maternal age), probability of first reproduction was 0.43 (SE=0.07), whereas probability of first reproduction for females born at near-shore colonies was 0.30 (SE=0.05) based on estimates from our top-ranked model. Breeding probabilities following first reproduction were also higher at offshore colonies. Thus, our results (1) provide evidence of spatial variation in breeding probabilities, (2) reveal the importance of birth location on a female's vital rates, and (3) suggest that the effect persisted for many years. Birth-colony effects may be attributed to spatial variation in prey availability, or to heterogeneity in female quality in this population. If females who are superior competitors consistently chose offshore colonies for pupping, pups born at these locations may have inherited those superior qualities and displayed higher probabilities of first reproduction, relative to seals born at other colonies. Further research into physical or food-related differences among colonies may offer insight into spatial variation in breeding probabilities documented in this paper.  相似文献   

4.
A mark-recapture study conducted in 1987–1992 provided weight measurements of juvenile male northern fur seals ( Callorhinus ursinus ) on St. Paul Island, Alaska, at ages ranging from approximately 1.5 mo to 5 yr. Males born in 1987 tended to weigh less at ages 3 and 4 yr than those born in other years. Weights of individuals at ages 2, 3, and 4 yr were significantly correlated with their weights as pups ( P < 0.05). Weights at ages 2 and 3, 3 and 4, and 4 and 5 yr were significantly correlated ( P < 0.001), although weight changes with age were highly variable. Data indicate that larger than average male pups born during 1987–1990 were more likely to survive, but this effect was less evident than among pups born during 1960–1965 when average pup weights were lower.  相似文献   

5.
We estimated trends in abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardsii ) using over dispersed, multinomial models and counts obtained during aerial surveys conducted during 1983–2001 in the Ketchikan, Sitka, Kodiak, and Bristol Bay areas of Alaska. Harbor seal numbers increased significantly at 7.4%/yr during 1983–1998 and 5.6%/yr during 1994–1998 in the Ketchikan area, and 6.6%/yr during 1993–2001 in the Kodiak area. Counts were stable (trends not significant) during 1984–2001 (0.7%/yr) and 1995–2001 (-0.4%/yr) in Sitka, and during 1998–2001 (-1.3%/yr) in Bristol Bay. The influence of covariates ( e.g. , survey date, tide height) on trend estimates was significant and varied among areas and across years, demonstrating the need to include covariates in statistical analyses to accurately estimate trend. Our increasing trend estimate for Kodiak represents the first documented increase in harbor seal numbers over a relatively expansive area in the Gulf of Alaska. However, the trend for the Gulf of Alaska stock is equivocal due to the continued decline in Prince William Sound. Similarly, the trend for the Southeast Alaska stock is equivocal based on our increasing (Ketchikan) and stable (Sitka) trend estimates, and a recent decline reported for Glacier Bay. The Bering Sea stock appears stable after a period of possible decline.  相似文献   

6.
Survival rates have rarely been estimated for pinniped populations due to the constraints of obtaining unbiased sample data. In this paper, we present an approach for estimating survival probabilities from individual recognition data in the form of photographic documentation of pelage patterns. This method was applied to estimate adult (age 2+) survival for harbour seals in the Moray Firth, NE Scotland. An astronomical telescope was used to obtain digital images of individual seals, and high-quality images were used to document the annual presence or absence of individuals at a single haul-out site over a 4-year period. A total of 95 females, 10 males and 57 individuals of unknown sex were photographically documented during the study period. Survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Jolly–Seber mark–recapture models in a Bayesian statistical framework. Computer-intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the probability distributions for the survival and recapture probabilities, conveying the full extent of the uncertainty resulting from unavoidably sparse observational data. The deviance information criterion was used to identify a best-fitting model that accounted for variation in the probability of capture between sexes, with constant survival. The model estimated adult survival as 0.98 (95% probability interval of 0.94–1.00) using our photo-identification data alone, and 0.97 (0.92–0.99) with the use of an informative prior distribution based on previously published estimates of harbour seal survival. This paper represents the first survival estimate for harbour seals in the UK, and the first survival estimate using photo-identification data in any species of pinniped.  相似文献   

7.
Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.  相似文献   

8.
We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 (± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λ H , to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.  相似文献   

9.
THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF NORTHERN SEA LIONS, 1975-1985   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
Abstract: Populations of northern sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ) in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska declined during 1975–1985 at about 5% per year (Merrick et al. 1987). The cause of this decline is not known. A life table for the northern sea lion was calculated assuming that life spans follow a Weibull distribution. Samples of northern sea lions taken in the vicinity of Marmot Island, Alaska during 1975–1978 and 1985–1986 indicate that the average age of females older than 3 yr increased about 1.55 yr (SD = 0.35 yr) while the population was declining at about 5% per year. Fecundity rates decreased by 10% over the same period, but the decrease was not statistically significant (Calkins and Goodwin 1988). Possible causes of the population decline and the change in age structure were examined by writing the Leslie matrix population equation in terms of changes in juvenile and adult survival rates and fecundity, and examining the short–term behavior of the trajectories of the average age of adult females, total number of females, and total number of pups with respect to those changes in the vital parameters. From the observed rate of declines of adults and the changes in average age of adult females and fecundity, estimates of the changes in adult and juvenile survival were calculated; estimates of the standard deviations of these changes were estimated via a bootstrap procedure. One purpose of this exercise is to aid in setting priorities for research for determining the cause of the decline. An explanation for the observed declines in numbers of adult sea lions consistent with the observed fecundity rates, a rate of decrease of 5% in the number of adults, and the corresponding increase in average age (of females age 3 yr and older) was a 10%–20% decrease in the survival of juveniles (age 0-3 yr) coupled with an insignificant change in adult survival (0.03%, SD = 1%).  相似文献   

10.
Pup production on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, has been increasing exponentially since the early 1960s and by 1997 Sable Island was the largest gray seal colony worldwide. Using an aerial photographic survey, as in previous years, we estimated pup production in January 2004 to determine if this exponential rate of increase had continued. A total of 33,268 pups was counted on the color positives. When corrected for the proportion pups missed on the imagery (1.106 for the 12th; 1.527 on the 13th), the proportion of pups that died prior to the survey (0.031), and the proportion of pups born before the survey (east colony 0.966, west colony 0.962), estimated total pup production was 41,500 with SE = 4,381. The 2004 estimate indicates that pup production on Sable Island has continued to increase, but suggests that the rate of increase ( r ) may have declined (0.070 compared to previous 0.128). Females from the 1998–2000 cohorts were about 16 times less likely to give birth for the first time at age 4 yr and more than twice as likely at age 6 yr compared to those in the mid-late 1980s. The new estimate of pup production and observed changes in age of primiparity provide the first indication of changes in vital rates of this population. However, additional estimates of pup production and vital rates are needed to confirm this conclusion and to investigate the underlying mechanisms.  相似文献   

11.
Climate warming is predicted to reduce the extent of ice cover in the Arctic and, within the Hudson Bay region, the annual ice may be significantly decreased or entirely lost in the foreseeable future. The ringed seal ( Phoca hispida ), a key species that depends on sea ice, will likely be among the first marine mammals to show the negative effects of climatic warming. We used 639 ringed seals killed by Inuit hunters from western Hudson Bay (1991–1992, 1999–2001) to assess trends in recruitment relative to snow depth, snowfall, rainfall, temperature in April and May, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the previous winter, and timing of spring break-up. Snowfall and ringed seal recruitment varied from lower than average in the 1970s, to higher in 1980s and lower in 1990s. Prior to 1990, seal recruitment appeared to be related to timing of spring ice break-up which was correlated with the NAO. However, recent 1990–2001 environmental data indicate less snowfall, lower snow depth, and warmer temperatures in April and May when pups are born and nursed. Decreased snow depth, particularly below 32 cm, corresponded with a significant decrease in ringed seal recruitment as indicated by pups born and surviving to adults that were later harvested. Earlier spring break-up of sea ice together with snow trends suggest continued low pup survival in western Hudson Bay.  相似文献   

12.
Life history of Fraser's dolphin, a little known delphinid species, was examined based on 108 specimens from a school captured by the driving fishing method in Japan. The sex ratio was approximately 1:1, and mature dolphins of both sexes formed the bulk of the school. The oldest animals were two males and a female of 17.5 yr. Age and body length at sexual maturity were estimated at 7–10 yr and 220–230 cm in males and 5–8 yr and 210–220 cm in females. Mature males were larger in body length than mature females and showed apparent secondary sexual features: deepening of the tail stock and widening and darkening of the lateral dark stripe. The annual ovulation rate was 0.49. The estimated neonatal length (110 cm) predicts a gestation period of about 12.5 mo and calving peaks in spring and probably also in fall. The calving interval was estimated to be about 2 yr. These life history parameters are similar to those of the striped and pantropical spotted dolphins, except for longevity. The reproductive rate of this species may be lower than that of other pelagic delphinids, if the observed shorter longevity is real.  相似文献   

13.
We provide the first direct evidence that Steller sea lions will prey on harbor seals. Direct observations of predation on marine mammals at sea are rare, but when observed rates of predation are extrapolated, predation mortality may be found to be significant. From 1992 to 2002, harbor seals in Glacier Bay declined steeply, from 6,200 to 2,500 (∼65%). After documenting that Steller sea lions were preying on seals in Glacier Bay, we investigated increased predation by sea lions as a potential explanation for the large decline. In five independent data sets spanning 21–25 yr and including 14,308 d of observations, 13 predation events were recorded. We conducted a fine-scale analysis for an intensively studied haul-out (Spider Island) and a broader analysis of all of Glacier Bay. At Spider Island, estimated predation by sea lions increased and could account for the entirety of annual pup production in 5 of 8 yr since 1995. The predation rate, however, was not proportional to the number of predators. Predation by Steller sea lions is a new source of mortality that contributed to the seal declines; however, life history modeling indicates that it is unlikely that sea lion predation is the sole factor responsible for the large declines.  相似文献   

14.
The distribution and abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardii ) in Oregon were monitored from 1977 to 2003 by aerial photographic surveys. Harbor seals on shore were counted each year during the reproductive period. Mean annual counts of non-pups (adults and subadults) were used as an index of population size and the trend in the counts was modeled using exponential (density-independent) and generalized logistic (density-dependent) growth models. Models were fit using maximum likelihood and evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion. The population dynamics of harbor seals in Oregon were best described by the generalized logistic model. The population grew following protection under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 until stabilizing in the early 1990s. The estimated absolute abundance of harbor seals (all age classes) during the 2002 reproductive period was 10,087 individuals (95% confidence interval was 8,445–12,046 individuals). The current predicted population size for harbor seals in Oregon is above its estimated maximum net productivity level and hence within its optimum sustainable population range. We speculate that recent increases in ocean productivity in the eastern Pacific Ocean may lead to an increase in carrying capacity and renewed growth in Oregon's harbor seal population.  相似文献   

15.
FORAGING OF JUVENILE MONK SEALS AT FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS, HAWAII   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
Emaciation and poor survivorship of juvenile Hawaiian monk seals at French Frigate Shoals atoll prompted a study of their foraging, using video camera technology ( crittercam ). Nine juveniles between the ages of 1 and 3 yr (six males, three females) were fitted with crittercam to identify their foraging habitat and feeding behavior. All feeding was directed at small (≤ 10 cm), cryptic, benthic prey. Older seals (ages 2 and 3), varied in their foraging intensity with most of their attention directed at shallow atoll depths (10–30 m). In contrast, the three yearlings focused all their feeding in the sand fields (50–100 m) on the atoll's outer slope. Bottom trawls were used to assess the prey abundance of the sand habitat and found 70% of the numerical catch was flounder ( Bothidae ). Extrapolating the yearlings' prey capture rate (0.13/min, derived from the crittercam video) over their total bottom time yielded an estimated 1–1.3 kg/day of flounder. The mean size of flounder (5 ± 1.7 cm) caught in the bottom trawls was close to the size at which larval flounder settle from the plankton (3 cm), suggesting that localized changes in oceanography could directly impact the seals' prey supply. Extensive use of sand communities by young seals may be the strongest link yet identified between juvenile survivorship and oceanographic dynamics.  相似文献   

16.
Age-specific survival and breeding (ASSAB) models were developed with data from 146 common buzzards ( Buteo buteo ) radio-tagged in southern Britain during 1990–1998, in a 120-km2 study area that had on average 25 egg-laying pairs. Survival checks were aided by philopatric behaviour and a maximum annual tag failure rate of 7%: minimum survival rates, that were estimated by assuming death of buzzards with lost tags, were close to maximum rates that were estimated using only the recorded deaths. First-year survival rate estimates for 35 buzzards fitted in 1990–1991 with 25–30-g backpack radios were 69–74% (minimum-maximum), close to the 61–71% for 16 buzzards with 12-g tail-mount radios; the backpacks transmitted for 2–4 yr. Overall survival rates were 66–73% in the first year, 91–97% in the second and 88–91% thereafter. Survival estimates from 288 recent British ring recoveries were lower in the first and second years, at 55% and 75%, but similar (88%) thereafter. Most deaths were from natural causes (40%) or interaction with artefacts (36%). ASSAB models, from radio-tracking and the observed 1.71 young clutch−1, predicted breeding by 16–21% of all the buzzards present in spring, or up to 25% with the minimum likely productivity of 1.4 young clutch−1 or 12% net emigration. Ringing data predicted breeding rates of 33–38%. The models were tested with density data from nest surveys and new radio-corrected-transect and truncation-mark-resighting estimates of buzzard numbers. Surveys in autumn and late winter estimated breeding rates of 21–25%. The high non-breeder density in spring, of three other buzzards for each paired bird with eggs, has important implications for understanding evolutionary fitness, predation and population ecology.  相似文献   

17.
Exploring age- and sex-specific survival rates provides insight regarding population behavior and life-history trait evolution. However, our understanding of how age-specific patterns of survival, including actuarial senescence, compare between the sexes remains inadequate. Using 36 years of mark-recapture data for 7,516 male Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) born in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, we estimated age-specific annual survival rates using a hierarchical model for mark-recapture data in a Bayesian framework. Our male survival estimates were moderate for pups and yearlings, highest for 2-year-olds, and gradually declined with age thereafter such that the oldest animals observed had the lowest rates of any age. Reports of senescence in other wildlife populations of species with similar longevity occurred at older ages than those presented here. When compared to recently published estimates for reproductive Weddell seal females, we found that peak survival rates were similar (males: 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92–0.96; females: 0.92, 95% CI = 0.93–0.95), but survival rates at older ages were lower in males. Age-specific male Weddell seal survival rates varied across years and individuals, with greater variation occurring across years. Similar studies on a broad range of species are needed to contextualize these results for a better understanding of the variation in senescence patterns between the sexes of the same species, but our study adds information for a marine mammal species to a research topic dominated by avian and ungulate species.  相似文献   

18.
Atlantic spotted dolphins (Stenella frontalis) were observed underwater and from the surface from 1985 to 1996 and photographed through successive years. Individuals were categorized into age classes by their degree of spotting and color phases. Dolphins spent an average of 3 yr in the two-tone color phase, 5 yr in the speckled phase, 7 yr in the mottled phase and up to 10 yr or more in the fused phase.
Sex ratios were close to parity, with old adults skewed towards females and juveniles and young adults skewed towards males. The average calving interval for 24 females was 2.96 years with a range of 1–5 yr. Females whose calves survived the first year had a significantly longer calving interval (3.56 years). The ages of first parturition for five females were estimated to be 10–12 yr. The age at sexual maturation was estimated to range from 8 to 15 yr.
Pregnancy rate fluctuated annually, with an average rate of 0.25 (range 0.07–0.57). Annual average birth rate was 0.08 (range 0.07–0.14), average calf production was 0.33 (range 0.06–0.52), average fecundity was 0.23 (range 0.13–0.30), and average recruitment was 0.06 (range 0.03–0.08). Most females who lost a calf conceived the same or following year.
Lactation lasted up to 5 yr, and 45% of visibly pregnant females were also lactating. Age of first parturition was associated with the mottled color phase. Average first-year mortality rate of calves was 0.24.  相似文献   

19.
Survival in captivity was calculated for 1,707 bottlenose dolphins (BD), 72 killer whales (KW), 73 white whales (WW), 3,090 California sea lions (CSL), and 47 Steller sea lions (SSL) based on data in the Marine Mammal Inventory Report (MMIR) of the NMFS. Mean annual survival rates (ASRs) between 1988 and 1992 were 0.951, 0.937, and 0.954 for BD, KW, and WW, respectively, and 0.952 and 0.969 for CSL and SSL, respectively. These estimates represent significant increases in survival for both BD and CSL over the last 5 yr. Using all of the MMIR data (1940–1992), the ASR of BD calves (< 1 yr of age) was significantly less than the ASR of non-calves (0.666 vs .948, 0.001). Similarly, the ASR of CSL pups (< 1 yr of age) was significantly less than survival of non-pups (0.858 vs .962, 0.001). Survival of captive-born CSL was significantly higher than those born in the wild (0.962 vs .945, 0.003), but the difference was not significantly different for BD (0.948 vs .944, 0.60). For non-calf BD and KW, captive animals survived at a slightly lower rate (BD 0.944 vs .961, = 0.07; KW 0.938 vs .976, 0,001) than animals in the wild (BD: Wells and Scott 1990, KW: Olesiuk 1990). Survival of captive non-pup SSL was slightly higher (0.968 vs .930) than animals in the wild (York 1994, life-table analyses). Survival rates were significantly different among institutions for BD calves and non-calves, CSL pups and non-pups, and SSL non-pups.  相似文献   

20.
Between October and December of 1996–1999, off eastern Antarctica (60°-150°E), we darted 31 crabeater seals with midazolam and pethidine at estimated dose rates of 0.15–0.4 mg/kg and 1–3 mg/kg, respectively. Maximum sedation was reached at 23 ± 9 min (n = 18) and first signs of recovery were noted at 54 ± 24 min (n = 4). Seals greater than 250 kg body-mass were sedated by administration of approximately 90–100 mg midazolam and 600 mg pethidine, but the degree of sedation was unpredictable and did not permit invasive procedures in some cases. Behavior of the seal and adjacent conspecifics affected the success of procedures and our ability to monitor vital signs. Naloxone and flumazenil reversed sedation, making this combination attractive for use in animals adjacent to water. Additional ketamine was administered to two seals, resulting in improved restraint.  相似文献   

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